If inflation is rising, why is gold price still down? Lobo Tiggre answers
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- čas přidán 15. 06. 2024
- Gold has held a strong relationship with inflation expectations but more importantly, gold tracks real interest rates, so if nominal rates rise faster than inflation, then gold would see pressure, said Lobo Tiggre of The Independent Speculator.
0:00 - Gold vs. inflation
9:18 - Gold vs risk-on sentiment
14:42 - Gold price action
16:19 - Gold miners
18:45 - Gold to Big Mac ratio
20:13 - Silver
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Manipulation is a constant, not a variable. If manipulation is the only explanation considered, I'd never have bought any gold stocks, and never have made the money I have on them.
So you’ve made money before, but we’ve never seen this much money printed before also. That’s something we all should be thinking about.
Are the current repo & treasury rates signaling a brewing storm?
There is upwards manipulation, too.
I have also kept up with rising prices due to inflating of the currency supply by holding physical Gold, however the spot price should be higher as the banks are shorting the paper Gold & Silver ETFs.
Its a non negatively valued variable. Sometimes there is a little, sometimes there is a lot.
Gold was in favor. Now it's out of favor. It will be back in favor again relatively soon. If you love gold and silver don't complain - enjoy the moment and hope it goes even lower so you can buy more before it shoots up again!
100%
Exactly, it's not BTC, it goes up slowly, it went up almost 100% in the last couple of years, so chill the fuck up, it's just a normal pull back, look left, it's a very common pullback in gold, 8-11 months of consolidation.
It’s Bitcoin eating golds lunch!😂😂😂
@@bahmak2003
i have eaten a fish for lunch.
@@vincentyeo88 Good! I ate fish almost everyday 😂😂😂
gold is always the last to move, during inflation process
You have a point mate
Bitcoin now is the best hedge against inflation.
@@bahmak2003 bitcoin cannot be hedge against anything
@@kirilmihaylov1934 I said hedge against inflation did you not read?😂😂😂
@@bahmak2003 I said it can't be hedge
There’s the REAL world, and there’s the world that “economists” live in. Well said! 💪
I’m buying more gold and silver now and if it comes down more.
That's good, buying when it's less "hot"
I started buying Silver last year and am glad i did. Cheers
This is why the metals never go up. People always say they will buy "IF" it comes down.
@@John-wf5if nah it's because the spot price is manipulated
very smart.
@@Trump-ld1qh Sounds like an asset worth avoiding then.
I stopped asking why, just buy when I can. Now more likely when there’s inventory, soon we won’t have any silver and gold to buy
Yeah
Bitcoin has tumbled 40% within one month!!! Very highly speculative and extremely volatile !!! I've been all in GOLD for a couple of months!! Too many conditions just favoring gold prices recently.... such as ultra-low interest rates, real yields get more negative due to the increasing hyperinflation, the unlimited QE's since the last Mar. 2020, new waves of Covid pandemic in Asia, all commodities' prices soaring, and the crypto prices tumbled recently due to trading bans by many central banks, all forming the perfect storms for the skyrocketing gold prices !!!
Before hyperinflation kicks in, there is a deflationary period. Metals will probably settle in lower than they are now but where nobody can accurately predict. It is a great buying opportunity right now and most likely for the next few months.
Sounds like the Bitcoin crazy guys comments, but I agree with you lol
@Marty Docard I was discussing the crypto dilemma earlier with a friend.
A processing bottleneck or regulation that bans conversion to currency would be a serious problem for cryptos.
@Marty Docard They may not be outdated but the market might decide that for a while and crash the monetary metals' prices. If you look at relative scarcity, gold is priced very high compared to Ag, Pt, Pd and Rh because of its monetary function primarily, I would think. BTC is eating gold's lunch in that regard for the time being. Gold is in jeopardy until cryptos crash, if they do. It's not just USD vs gold. It's USD vs gold vs BTC now.
@Marty Docard the Govs of the world don't like competition when it comes to manipulating currency valuation. News articles dating back for the past few years discuss how crypto is used on the "dark web" for illicit transactions, this will be the argument for regulation.
following your logic one should keeps as much dry powder as possible for the next crash as it will take gold and silver down again, just like in March 2020... Or did I miss something ?
Why is everyone so afraid of the word “manipulation” ?
That’s a good question. Instead of taking 20+ mins about it just say one word 😅
@@x-perimentalthoughts lol “shit n*##+
@@stevepiccinnin1157 Ok Jules. Settle down.
"They Live" is why?
@@blockaderunner I miss Roddy Piper!
I really like David's interviewing style. He challenges his guests without being hostile or arrogant.
Totally agree , he is so polite and respectful in how he questions and tests the interviewee.
Let's be REAL. Gold is still lower because the top one percent hasn't bought enough of it yet.
The paper market is making the physical market very unattractive for a reason. You can accumulate on the cheap, especially for the very wealthy
Actually true
@@MrDMSir thank you. Pile up on silver to crush the ratio so you can swap silver into gold around 20 or 10:1
The 1% don't want gold or silver
Gold sucks, its price is kept down by the investment banks. Better to buy stocks or crypto.
Just keep buying gold. Any amount will do. Not 'investment', its insurance. Long game only.
Bitcoin
blah blah blah "insurance" shut up.
When you insure for a remote event, you don't need that much insurance ! Its basically like an emergency fund. You need it, but it doesn't need to be too big. 1 oz might be enough. I don't understand the gold bug obsession with having large amounts of it.
Gold is the ultimate stablecoin.
If mortgages in 2008 were failing why were morgage backed securities still AAA rated?
Have you watched the movie, The Big Short? Explains some
There is still demand for housing. While mortage rates has risen we"ll see if it AAA rated in a couple of months.
@@mumzieof563 good film
JP wants to shake us out of the tree. NOT! Keep on stacking folks. 💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻
indeed! i’m loving these lowering prices!! i hope they continue to manipulate physical metals so i can stack stack & stack more!
@@vapewrld5313 YOU KNOW IT !👍
SILVER... Trump's haircolor on CPAC ...Silver!!!
The moment you want to get the physical in a panic you won’t be able to get it when it’s sold out
It's already sold out.
@@cliveadams7629 that’s right ! Krugerrand in gold is becoming almost extinct
That's not sometime in the future, it's NOW!
@@369jones6 ok
In a hyperinflation you will be just fine in the metals. Especially when CMBc or Bloomberg don’t mention it
J. P. Morgan is the answer.
🤷♂️
WWJPMD
Basel 3 is coming in june 28 to stop this game
@@fabioandrade71
Don't hold your breath, they'll probably postpone it.
Duh?
Jp morgan is trying to shake metals from people. Criminals are always play dirty!!
@TheKerrycoolmisic Lucky you don't have no metals, like, yeah!
The size and quality of a Big Mac has diminished significantly over the years. Not a good comparison. You should have done it with a gallon of gasoline or something.
Because it’s being Manipulated
All night long !
And the buillon banks have to cover there short positions. It will go down till they can cover them. Regards from Switzerland.
Then why buy a manipulated asset?
@@John-wf5if because I believe that we will be able to force an effect - and while it’s down in price I’m still buying a kilo a month
@@michellegunn4115 a kilo?
Are we talking gold or cheese?
The “fake” & “rigged” paper markets are now diverging from the “real” supply/demand physical metals market. All national PM wholesalers & distributors are NOT dropping prices with “spot”, which is heavily rigged, as physical supplies are very limited. That’s a fact.
Yes spot gold is just paper
Thkq for having Lobo....his insights are GOLD🤗
Really enjoy your interviews, thank you!
The banks are shorting the paper Silver & Gold ETFs lowering the price, manipulated market.
Can you please elaborate and quote data for your statement? Thank you.
Bridgewater (Ray Dalio) sold gold but kept SOME gold ETF's. But I think Ray kept his PM.
That may be a general reason, but not enough to explain the last decreasings. I think many people try to obtain money by selling their gold or siver.
EFT's are crap.
Close your bank account now!
Did Jeff Currie from Goldman find his 14.5 million ounces Silver yet his shop sold short ?
Jim carry has more credibility than him
@@Trump-ld1qh wol
@@Trump-ld1qh is that the end for Donnie?
Donald Trump 1946-2024. May he Rest In Peace.
@@steviesevieria1868 yea, the year that starts the last term he'll serve as as our 47th president :p
@@steviesevieria1868 I'd donate a kidney to keep Trump alive forever. Love you 😘
LOVE KITCO NEWS!! ❤❤❤
Great show as always David
David is a very well prepared interviewer. He has good charts and seems to always ask the right questions from his audience point to view. I always learn something new from this channel. Thank you!
Low gold prices are great as it means buy buy buy!
yes yes yes!
Very well explained thank you!
Excellent video thanks. Really good questions from David
After watching the bond market today I’m 100% convinced the fed is already doing yield curve control. That 10 year didn’t budge at all while the market put on gains like that today!
I’ve heard a lot of speculation they started .. guess they still have some “twisty” tricks up their sleeve
You mean "Paper" Gold Price are going down, but I see the premiums in "Physical" Gold going up. That's called decoupling
Great report... thank you...!
Great interview! I like Lobo...and you too David!
This is one of the best interviewers on youtube. A sharp reaction in the metals should occur around the 5-8th of March.
🙏
Why?
Up or down?
@@leebosley5984 based on my cycle analysis. It has been capturing all the major swings very well so far. See the comment I made above. Good luck.
@@palobar9974 up or down
Metals are only getting lower in the paper markets... physical prices don’t seem to be moving as much
yes, the premiums for retail gold/silver are huge - and remain so.
@@paulrath7764 if only they could print physical silver/gold like they do contracts... we’d pay peanuts for it
Physicals are limited
Admire his honesty & that he puts his money on his analysis. Bravo.
I like Lobbo very much as a guest in Kitco. He is very data driven and rational.
Let's be HONEST. The top one percent hasn't bought enough of it yet------buy Gold.
The 1% don't want gold
Or they already own it and don’t need to buy.
@@missinformed4269 Then it isn't going to go up is it 😂
cool project! thanks for publishing so often!
I think this guy is great , I don’t understand why I don’t see them or talk shows!
Gold *does* pay interest. You just don't get it until you really need it.
Gold has outperformed in real terms since 2002 the aggregate stock market at about 500% vs the stock market close to 375% says much of it
Gold goes down when stocks go up, and down even faster when stocks go down. Gold goes down with inflation (expects higher interest rates) and goes down with deflation.
ROFL. This ^^. Gold goes down when the global economy is strong and peaceful (ie 2011-2-2019) because it's a useless ROI when you could be investing in a growing business. Gold goes down when there's global problems or chaos (ie a pandemic) because that makes the dollar stronger as its the world's reserve currency. Gold goes down when crypto goes down, gold goes down when crypto goes up. For gold prices to go up you basically have to have like 5 things happen and 5 other things not happen simultaneously.
This makes so much sense...
Spot on!
damn it now i want a Big Mac, lol
I want a Big Mac from the 70s they were tasty then.
The chart does not reflect the shrinking of the Big Mac!
Keep stacking baby
When does that advice become harmful? Gold is struggling, and has been for a long time. Better options out there.
@@John-wf5if BEST OPTION IS SILVER AND GOLD
@@gemmabahadur8783 2021 is going to wreck gold.
Very good interviewee, talks sense. Thank you.
Lobo has got to be one of David's favorite guests on the show.
Perhaps a few paper shorts exert excessive influence on physical pricing 🙀🤔
Metals are hard to get and have big premiums but the price goes down. Manipulated. The Big Boys want the price low and low it will stay. There is nothing we can do about it.
I like it when the guest tells it like it is never mind dancing around. Its nice to hear someone with an honest to goodness opinion.
I never comment on youtube videos but this interviewer always asks the best questions. It's good to keep assumptions grounded. Sometimes hopes can inflate a lot faster than currency does.
How come the gold I always want to buy is Always "out of stock?" or at ridiculous premiums like idk the same price as when gold spot was at $1900 or more? I don't care where I look it's gone. Ebay has the coin I want but it's at $1900 level premiums.
Because gold sellers are milking you. Order a futures contract and demand delivery.
I live in Dubai. I pay like 30 $ premium / ounce lol... I get it almost at market value
And you can find it anywhere here. I guess it's one of the perks
@@AlexanderGeorge 🆒
@@ZelenoJabko No they aren't. The gold is flat not out there in small denominations for anyone to buy because the price is kept too artificially low driving the premiums higher. Even thousand ounce bars are hard to purchase. A futures contract does not guarantee delivery. The contracts allow the CME to pay you off in cash, or force majeur. So, you are dead wrong Zeleno. Besides, not everyone can afford to buy 100 oz of gold or 1000 oz of silver.
This is called the self-fulfilling prohecy. Fiat Inflation.
great interview David, you get better by the day.Congrats.
Lobo! 🏆
Trickie Dick not only close the gold window, but opened the Bamboo Curtain (both were huge mistakes)
👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👍👍
Only way silver will ever go up is if the miners put on the squeeze.
@anonymous human Agreed, Was not too long ago $14 here now over $26. It went up 46% last year that is pretty damn good for something I bought as an long term emergency asset.
Good job Dave. 👍
Thank you so much, I had to quit my 9 to 5 job in the Uk and started Exporting Gold to the UK and Canada from Ghana which changed my life entirely I earn amazingly gold's worth will remain invaluable.
This is a really smart guy, but just say it, manipulation!
I have heard numerous Bitcoin millionaires / billionaires state that they will be exiting the top of bitcoins bull run and depositing straight to gold - This should be between sept 21 and march 22. - I believe we will see Gold let loose at that time...
I think you're likely right. Heading dollars with Bitcoin first, then hedging Bitcoin with gold. Musk seems to be doing this. Michael Saylor might do too - but for now he turmed his company's stock into the first Bitcoin ETF.
I like the conversation
I couldn't purchase physical gold and silver from Perthmint yesterday. Many gold and silver sizes were out of stock. There is high demand in physical gold and silver right now. I wonder why.
Just buying more and more of precious metals :)
Rhodium....$638 oz in 2016......24K! in 2021.Cudda,shudda,wudda
gold to the moon!
B.s.
To the stars.
Sure. It will be just as useful there as it is here.
GREAT GUY
In this Time is Barrick Gold a must have
manipulated to keep silver down.
“Both gold and the stocks are up.” Dude, you jinxed it! 🤣
this didnt age well
I'm long silver. I hear there is market manipulation. How does this end and when?
Absolutely outstanding as always, great guest. Step aside Kitco News this channel needs to be re branded the “David Lin News”. Hope he got a pay rise cause this channel wouldn’t want to lose him
There’s going to be a legal price and a street price, no different than the USSR in its dying days.
Leaving to Cryptocurrency
You won't regret, I made that move early this year and have more than doubled already
Just over two years after Goldman capitulated on hopes to manipulate bitcoin, the vampire squid is back...
Pls don’t be fooled .. manipulation!!
Monday morning trade is a bull trap?
I love how I see all
These “going to crypto” have you looked at the list of crypto they all have the same charts, the same highs and lows. I find that very alarming that 9 different crytos can do that.
Go LT!!!
This guy is a way better interviewer than anyone on CNBC...
I'm noticing that in these interviews the host will bring up one or 2 points which actually show more insight than his guests, such as at 9:15.
Put another way... basically, gold had its run and now nobody gives a f**k about it.
Gold better go up that dude ain't slept in weeks.
Lol I was thinking the same , he's been up for weeks D.i.Ying his own stops loss , because he knows if he sleeps with a stop loss set he will get rinsed while he's In bed with a huge out of the blue wick
David You sounded either sleepy or taking a step back to quietly listen to Lobbo. Either way you guys have good screen chemistry👍
Yesss..That explanation is very valuable. !... So 10 Yr rates effect on suppressing gold (if it wonrt evolve to a liquidity crisis) is temporary...
Got 5 more gold eagles today, so bring on the dollar collapse haha
@TheKerrycoolmisic haha that's not going to happen
"Why is gold not up?" - Please watch "The Big Short".
or "They Live"
Mr Market is always right...
Thanks Lobo, my Gold miners on the ASX took another big hit today, just wish I had some cash to deploy like your good self! I went all in too soon, just gonna have to wait for the turn-around !👍
David's Big Mac chart is cool. Shows gold has been down for ten years while BTC is up a million percent. Oops!
Mr market is making money in the market unlike us suckers holding physical metals and mining stocks...
I wanna start learning ab gold does anyone have any good sources/books?
DAVID LIN AND LOBO TIGGRE ARE PURE GOLD!
When I see a bunch of books as backdrop, I think maybe I can have that too. Impress all my burnout friends.
Books are cheap...start reading.
Here is a provable data point: I sold my gold and silver bullion for BTC a few weeks ago.
I bought more gold Friday three days ago.
Sorry to hear of the loser of your PM.
Maybe you will have a Chance to get it back
Good to see that I have not missed anything in the week I didn't bother watching KITCOIN. Attack gold at every possible opportunity.
Wow smart dude. When he listed his mentors it all made sense.
One answer! ☝️ Federal Reserve
I miss the times before GFC when Cb didn't manipulate and intervene. Printing all people in debt to their system.
gold has been manipulated for decades. for example, take a look at the London Gold pool of the 1960s. when that failed, nixon closed the gold window in 1971. (essentially a declaration of bankruptcy), and 10 years later gold hit 850 or so,
thus, I expect a similar (and greater) move in the future for gold.
I miss when price to earning was more important than the stock options!
@@thomaskauser8978 You mean like in a market economy?
@@jobob47 true .it is manipulated by CB
Now you’re seeing the use and cause for MSM hype into Bitcoin.
Spot on JP. It's an attempt to demonetize gold.
@@davebellamy4867 Attempting to demonetize gold, is like fighting both time and tide. A futile endeavor.
Nah. Bitcoin carries its own hype. MSM merely reacts to it by force
@@likuidmethod Ponzi schemes usually create hype
@@Trump-ld1qh if you’re referring to Bitcoin as being a Ponzi scheme, keep telling yourself that, go ahead and stay ignorant on the revolutionary technology that is blockchain, and have fun staying poor
Stay patient people.
I would like to see an overlay with cost of Big Mac in USD on the Big Mac vs Good chart, portion reduction of the B.M. Could cause price stagnation which would skew the B.M. Bs AU chart.
Bitcoin is being manipulated, too. There's no way around the whales.
Follow the whales! Unlike gold there is interest yield in crypto! So I choose crypto anytime, bitcoin is manipulated upward?😂😂😂
When the whales like Micro Strategy decide to sell their Bitcoins to save their company, then it's off to the races to get your coins off of your fancy USB drives, onto the exchange, and click the sell button
@@migooknamja you must’ve never seen Michael saylor talk (ceo of micro strategy) he’s never selling Bitcoin it’s the dumbest thing to do...if it so happens that the company needs the money they would just borrow off of it...u can put your Bitcoin up as collateral for a loan (btw the loans are instant no waiting for confirmations from 3rd party..peer to peer) imagine taking a loan, paying it back receiving back your collateral(Bitcoin) which would be worth more money down the years
Gold is not rising because people need food for at not gold , I mention this 2 years ago . Look at food prices . People don’t get it but they will soon . Gold will hit 800$
Very good point , see my own comment if you will.
Hi, I am writing for the first time on this channel chat. I am from India.... The one thing you will accept is that we Indians love our gold.... Not silver but gold.... We had negligible number of wedding last year...... This year all those weddings happen.... You need to understand that gold is a must at Indian weddings.... And who says there is no inflation.... The inflation in India is really spiking.... Stop panicking and have faith in your decision making.... Like Charlie munger says secret to stock market success is to do nothing.... So relax and do nothing.... And btw i agree with David... This is nothing but a risk on move.... The best part is more selling happens now less will happen due to liquidation concerns happen when the stocks eventually crash.... So relax and keep buying or atleast not sell
I've heard on Twitter - you need to understand the diff btw the "paper" gold and physical gold. Paper gold may still go down (all about the dollar, real rates, US insolvency).
Bitcoin has tumbled 40% within one month!!! Very highly speculative and extremely volatile !!! I've been all in GOLD for a couple of months!! Too many conditions just favoring gold prices recently.... such as ultra-low interest rates, real yields get more negative due to the increasing hyperinflation, the unlimited QE's since the last Mar. 2020, new waves of Covid pandemic in Asia, all commodities' prices soaring, and the crypto prices tumbled recently due to trading bans by many central banks, all forming the perfect storms for the skyrocketing gold prices !!!