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My 10 Controversial Olympic Swimming Predictions for Paris 2024
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- čas přidán 14. 08. 2024
- A few of my predictions are a little bit ambitious, and I might be completely wrong. But after two decades of being an absolute swim nerd, here are my hot takes about Caeleb Dressel, Katie Ledecky, Ariarne Titmus, Kate Douglass, Léon Marchand, and more at the Paris 2024 Olympics!
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You barely mentioned Summer McIntosh. You just watch.
Frrrrrrrrrrrr
3 Golds 1 Silver. Only outshone by Leon Marchant's 4 OR Golds.
Population of USA ~342 million (Population of California ~39 million) Population of Australia ~27 million. Per capita it is amazing how good the Aussies are....I suppose they are surrounded by water, so they must be brought up to swim.
Using the count medals is not fair approach. Sort the table by gold, silver and bronze medals and the story is very different.
Yes but I will like to know how many people in the US can have access to competitive swimming, having more options also plays a role on it , athletes in USA most likely will go for football, basketball, baseball even soccer way before competitive swimming.
@@segundolizardo6667 Yeah, it would be interesting to compare how many people reach the competetive stage of their swimming career.
@@segundolizardo6667 Yes, but its the same in Australia...Cricket, AFL, Rugby League & Union, Football (Soccer) Tennis, Golf all get more TV, ground attendance, media coverage, money, etc. And at grass roots level, theres also Netball and Field Hockey. Swimming is far from being Australia's number 1 sport...the only time there is TV coverage or hype is when the Olympics and Worlds come about every few years.
@@pabichpawel I don't know if that's important, but USA swimming says it has 260,000 members and Swimming Australia has 90,000 members. Simple google search.
Is it possible for any American to report on anything without bias??
Obviously not.
neither is any other person without bias.
13:29 the defending champion is from Japan, just giving you a heads-up.
Yui Ohashi! Had to look that one up after filming. Thanks for the heads up!
Marchand won't break 4:00 in Paris. As much as I want to see that, I think he's gonna be right on his best or a little faster, maybe around 4:01, and comfortably destroy the entire field, and then break 4:00 sometime between 2026 and 2028.
I personally don't see him ever breaking 4:02, I hope I'm wrong tho
@@sethaldrich6902 That's what people said about him breaking 3:30 in the short course 400 IM. Well guess what, he broke it by 2 seconds. If there's one thing you can't do with Marchand, it's underestimating him. If you try to be reasonable with your expectations, he will always shatter them.
@@hudsonbakke8836 definitely not underestimating, 402 is insane
4 OR Golds. What say you now?
relays are important but when you’re talking about the best to ever do it you’re talking about individual olympic gold:
phelps 13
ledecky 6
egerszegi 5
Thinking Summer will not crush competition in the 400m IM is laughable 🤣🤣
was thinking the same!
this aged well
This video was made to motivate the USA team. Just his opinion 😂😂
Race to watch for me is 400 IM men. Will be looking out for a new WR from Léon ❤
Idk he’s so good it kinda makes it boring,unless he gets dq it’s a guaranteed win for him lol.
Popovici will win at least one gold medal for sure
He did on 200m 😊
@@Geambasu169 ,we had no doubt about him! Our champion🎉🎉🎉🎉
As a Canadian I'm happy to have the best swimmer, male or female, in the world on our team it's gonna be a golden summer for Macintosh. 😊🇨🇦
yup shes unreal
2nd best performance, only outshone by France's Leon Marchand's 4 OR Golds!
I would have added the Women 100 Fly and even more competed 100 back (MacKeon VS Regan Smith will be nuts!!)
Whilst I agree Katie Ledecky is an amazing swimmer you’re forgetting that Emma Mckeon already has 11 Olympic medals and should go past Thompson et al for all most medals won by a female swimmer. This video is so one-eyed. The Olympics will not just be about the USA. There are some amazing swimmers from around the world ready to achieve their dreams in Paris. Can’t wait to watch Marchant, Milak, Popovich, Peaty, O’Callahan, Titmus, Clareburt, McIntosh all shine.
i think summer macintosh of canada will win 3 gold metals she is unreal fast
In what events?
13:38 yui ohashi from japan
I bet you its even sweeter beaten by the Chinese!
Holy shit you got it right
Phelps and Ledecky is apples to oranges. There are more sprints than distance events. The 1500 just started
Notice total medal count was never ever a thing - except with USA commentators since Aus first beet them in total golds. This is the same BS that Cate Campbell was calling out (plus the annoying stuff).
Australia is catching up with USA may be they are distant second in overall medal count but in recent past Australia is serious business to deal with for team USA. USA is not as much dominating as it was in the past.
True, but…
They still have people who don’t make the Olympic qualifying time. Ex 200 IM. Us does not have that problem.
In swimming history USA started working and research more early then other countries, now if you see Japan, China, Korea along with Australia, South Africa, Canada, Netherland, Hungary, Ukarine,France are catching up faster then the pace USA is moivng, it's not only Swimming in all sports the progress of USA is almost stagnant then it's competing countires, you can take Lawn tennis, Track and Field events, Basketball and other sports. I think USA must work more on it's research field of different sports and Swimming is one of it.
@@ChandanSingh_80 once these countries get close to the U.S. level of performance they’ll slow down too. Don’t worry. That’s how progression works
@@silentdagger1166 Ya I know that but that's what is required the close finishes in each and every races tooth and nail fighting, problem with USA is that they have not that level of swimmers as before since look at the world record thing once it was all USA dominance but now they are slipping slowing down and slipping is totally different thing.
How can you not even mention the GB team on the 4x100 medley ? .. Gold medal and WR in Tokyo ..
He had a brain fade
Yu Ohashi from Japan won both the women’s 2 and 4IM in Tokyo.
Until now I still love to watch Phelps performance from 2004 to 2016...
Events I am excited for:
100m free men
200m IM women
100m Breast men
and Finally 4*100m Mixed Medley
Marchand going sub 4m for 400IM is unrealistic. There isn’t 2.5 secs in his splits from last year to trim off.
agree
He will be in front of a home crowd for the Olympic which is a massive boost,his backstroke leg is definitely possible to improve upon and Leon is literally so crazy at swimming you never know his limits lol
@@HENRYMADFUT home crowd yes. World record possibly. But I’m not sure you’re comprehending how much he would have to find, we are not talking marginal amounts. 2.5 seconds is a ridiculous expectation. People will find someway of crapping on the guy if he goes a 4m 01 mid winning the Olympics by over 10 metres 🤣
@@russell10it sounds ridiculous to anyone normal but Leon literally isn’t human,the guy was going a 4:11 just 2 years ago and was racing like a monster at the NCAA’s
@@HENRYMADFUT OK let me rephrase. the 4m thing is being mentioned because its a round number. On the 4 strokes, what is the breakdown of him taking off 2.5 secs from an already insane WR? remember he demolished the old WR by a certain Phelps which was thought to be untouchable. He is a freak, but that's not the question. The question is how is he dropping 2.5 secs off a 400 IM. Is it impossible? Anything is possible, but to do this it is HIGHLY unlikely. We are talking a 5% chance. To be predicting this goes sub 4m is in my mind just getting carried away.
Thanks for the vid. I would argue that Ledecky is possibly more goat-ish than Phelps, even though she has fewer medals. First, she is (only) on the cusp of her 4th games. Phelps went to 5. So let's see where she's at after LA2028. Second, she specializes in distance events, so she doesn't get on as many relays as Phelps did. And she's won a medal (though not always gold) in every relay she has competed on. Ledecky is also more dominant in her strongest events than Phelps was. We saw Phelps win by 100ths of a second in some of his signature event races. With Ledecky, second place isn't even on the tv screen when she touches the wall.
I love Ledecky and she is probably the goat of swimming on the female side but saying that she is more goated than Phelps is almost objectively false. Not to take anything away from her greatness, she has achieved incredible things, but in no world is she (or anyone else) even close to MP
Phelps had like 4 world records at one point in his prime
@@fortythirty And Ledecky had 3, still has 2 more to go, hopefully. She has all of the fastest 19 (I think?) times in the 1500 and all but one of the top 25 times in the 800. When she swims those events, everyone else is understood to be racing for second before the race starts. The same cannot be said even in Phelps' world record swims.
@Kkddrr17 I don't think that's true. It's just that Ledecky is so dominant in her events that everyone else is racing for second. If you look at the second place finishers, they often do come in close to each other. The fact that there's less competition with her is a sign of how far ahead of her time she is.
Katy Ledecky is a much better specialist than Michael Phelps, but he is the GOAT because of his overall dominance. Katy is good at 3 main events, the 400, 800, and 1500 (and a little in the 200 free) while Michael Phelps dominated in the 100 fly, 200 fly, 200 free, 200 IM, and 400 IM (and a little in the 100 free). He was also much more valuable for relays. If Katy Ledecky passed Michael Phelps in either total medal or total gold medal count for the Olympics, I would reconsider who I think the GOAT is.
Mollie O'Callaghan (AUS) - 5 medals at Paris, very real chance of 5 gold
so at the age of 20, she could well have 8
thanks for no mention of her in your US-centric vid
They're US-centric games, we beat yall tf up every time.
Agree with Michael’s comment about doping. If only WADA held the same sentiment…..
WADA in China's pocket
Maybe also USA athletics long history of doping
As far as 50 free is concerned you should look at Christian Golomeev too 👀👀
He has potential for medal too and he is hungry for it
HOW MANY TIME RUSSIAN WERE TAKING DRUG ?REMEMBER SOCHI ? IN OTHER SUBJECT IF YOU WANT TO SEE A WOMEN WHO IS NOT SCARE OF PUTIN JUST LOOK AT,,,,,, VERA 1420 IVANOVNA,,,,THIS IS DIFFÉRENT FROM OTHER ZUMBIE OPINION FROM OTHER RUSSIAN WHO HAVE DIFFICULTY TO POOP THEY ARE BLOCK
The trash talk was created by TV networks
I think we are going to see a greater spread of medal winning countries than ever before 👏
That was honorable of you not to mention names involved in the doping drama 👍🏽
not really, but we all know China is the majority of them so I expect them to win everything in Paris since WADA is in their pocket.
@@sethaldrich6902 Everybody who is anybody knows you are a sore loser spreading rumors and murmuring nonsense. @wadamovies
Why weren't the gold and silver medals awarded to the two female East German swimmers at the 1976 summer Olympics in Montreal recalled (when the weightlifting medal given to the same country's athlete was) and the rightful champion, Nancy Garapick of Canada, vaulted to her legitimate place as the gold medalist. I wrote to the Canadian Olympic Committee about this scandal and didn't even receive a reply. As recently as this year's Paris Olympics, a Canadian commentator, listing the five Canadian women and their rank who had received medals throughout history, named Garapick as having won a bronze medal. Why hasn't this injustice been corrected?
Australia will be no 1 in terms of Gold medals. Races to watch women 200IM
Gold 🇨🇦 Mcintosh 2:04 high/2:05 low
@realalbertan nah probably its Kaylee mclkewon
1 Cadwallader Douglass 2 Kaylee McKeown 3 Summer McIntosh
@@dinukadaluwatte4145 no not Kate douglass
bro they're counting total medals now because they know they can't beat us in gold. what a joke
Your take on the depth in the distance events as compared to the sprint events is a bit off, at least when looking at the men’s side. The time to make the final in the 50 free at the 2023 worlds was 21.88 as compared to the Tokyo olympics in 2021 where it took a 21.78 to make the final. In 2023 you could also make the final with a 48.06 as compared to Tokyo where it took a 47.82. When comparing this to the distance events, it took a 7.45.80 to make the final in 2023 and only a 7.47.73 in 2021. The same can be said for the 400. There seems to be more depth in the distance events and less in the sprint events compared to the last Olympics, at least when looking at the last major world championships
the 2023 World Championships were not very representative, because a lot of athletes didn't show up.
Where's Pan Zhanle?
I’m so curious how MP would literally make somebody eat their words.
Agreed. Would be much easier to be able to do proverbially - literally would be almost impossible. Then again Americans are more known for cow bells and arrogance than understanding what words mean 😉
He was referring to when his competitors trash talked him. He then beat them and made them eat their words. He's retired now, and was referring to the current US team.
@@PeaMoo4723 I get that. The point I was making is that you can’t literally eat words.
@@ScottTaceybro Aussie chill, don’t get mad just because USA is better. Btw I am from Costa Rica so don’t say its another yapping american
Marchand got the 3 he was aiming for already.
Unbelievable Brett Hawke is supposed to be an expert? Haha. No world record will be broken?
This blog is so prejudiced
Cannot wait! I love the rivalry between the US and Australia. What most Americans don't realise, is that Australia has a population of 26million. The US has 333million...over 300 million more people. We are a small country with outstanding results.
You didn't talk about the 100 butterfly (Caleb , Milak , liendo ,grouset)
In the last serious world championship (2023) Australia crushed USA in gold medals. China is also looking greater than ever as they have been improving a lot in the last years. Its not crazy to say that USA wont be as dominant as they used to be. I'm betting they wont end up winning in gold medals.
crushed isn't the word I'd use, more like beat. China cheats so I expect them to win alot more as well.
TmZ Trimetazidine in training takes the body to extreme limits, essentially increases blood flow to the heart limiting swings in blood pressure , but can be completely eradicated out of the body in days leaving no residue - its heart medication prescribed to treat angina - that EPO /insulin aligned with period of micro dosing (taken at night so clear of the body for the morning ) over a prolonged period out of competition training (very limited testing ) So yes all athletes can be tested many times during competition and be clean that's true, completely true - its all the background assistance that is long gone and masked away. Is this just training or cheating? after all its out of competition.
Awesome video 🔥
Really looking forward to it all
temos vários atletas capazes de quebrar recordes esse ano, estou muito ansioso
Popovici is the winner both 100m and 200m free style
Another gripe, No depth in distance Free!?
800m:
Wiffen SC WR 7:40 LCM
Winnington
Wellbrock
Paltrineri
Martens
Short
Finke
New kid on the block Kuzey Tuncelli will have a sun 7;45 in him for sure
28 swimmers this year under 7:50. Never has there been such depth leading into an 800m free. It will be a battle just to make the final.
The 1500m WR is under threat.
Wiffen is on fire the same condendors above also have a realistic shot.
Short
Welbrock
Aubry
Bethlehem
TUNCELLI
Paltrineri
Romancchuk
Finke
All vying for the Gold and again the fastest finial that will ever exsist in the event. The depth os astounding. Not lacking.
I'd say that to get into the final you'll have to swim a sub 14:45. Mayne even 14:40.
The women, I'd agree. We all know who will win the 1500. But the 800? Palister and Titimus will be closer than ever, Mayne even in striking distance. Fairweather is also an outside chance and there may be more little surprises popping up.
400m is massive in both men and women.
1. You spent over 3 minutes predicting that a race that is won by hundredths of a second could go to anyone in the heat? Gee, Dr. Obvious, really?
2. The mixed medley will be two men leading (back/breast) and two women finishing (fly, free). Yawn. I guess WHO wins may be interesting.
3. Cate Campbell was kidding, check the context..."NEXT!"
4. Under 4:00? GOD I hope so. Now THAT would be epic! That is a bold prediction indeed (and I hope you're right).
5. Kate Douglas gets 200 breast world record.
6. Summer'll take both IMs.
The 200m breast WR is so far from the times the competing ladies have been showing... Not sure it will be beaten in the Paris games
@@yuldouz Yeah, granted it's a long shot. Maybe I'm more excited about that record being broken than reality would otherwise indicate. lol
Phelps came off a bit foolish in that bit about drama.
Cambridge definition of
Bias: The action of supporting or opposing a particular person or thing in an unfair way, because of allowing personal opinions to influence your judgment. 😂🤣
I just discovered I am as fast as the Female Olympic Champion in Stockholm 1912. So if I change my gender and find a time machine I could become Olympic Champion at the age of -62 years old.
If Sarah Sjostrom had been born in the US or Australia, she would have already beaten Torres, Thompson, and Coughlin to be the #2 decorated swimmer of all-time.
IDK, she doesn't get up or is injured alot for Olympics so that might not be true.
Swedish relay team is at disadvantage compared to a bigger swimming country.
Do you think Adam Peaty will defend his title?
if hes in good form in prelims ie: under 57 or 58 flat he'll win it all
No
@judahisaacs4473 Under 57 is a whole level above sub 58, if he doing that he winning for sure
He was injured and did not do well at commonwealth games but has since participated in several meets and made improvements so he is in the top three and if he gets up from the right side of the bed and the Chinese swimmer does not then he wins.
No because China is too doped up
Awesome video, Fares and MSP. I'm getting so excited (especially as a Yank now living in Oz)! A wee bit of feedback, through... Maybe it's best to stick with the language used to name the events themselves: 'women'. 'Ladies' dosen't really work. Would we call it the 'gentleman's 100 free'? : )
I said a year ago on sockwell's video I called out the Leon will go 3:58.84 in the 400 IM
He won't break 4min
Et c'est Napo - LÉON ! 🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷
Most of these aren't even predictions or claims. Just a bunch of yapping
Phelps could afford the doctors to cover the drug testing 😂😂😂
So a country of 330 million are going to win 30 odd medals and a Australian with population of 26 million are going to win 20. Which is the better swimming country??? Australia by a mile.
Kaylee McKeown will be the female swimmer of the meet for mine
I think it will be Molly O'Callaghan
nah summer macintosh of canada will win at least 3 gold metals
Women 100 Mtrs and 200 Mtrs Freestyle.
nothing controversial there at all...
As a sparsely populated country Australia is crushing America per capita.
While I agree Australia in terms of wealth, and overall population Australia is more impressive than the US at swimming, you have to take into account that swimming is much more popular in Australia than in America.
@@ccbgaming6994lol, sorry for being argumentative here, but your just throwing that “popular” statement around with no actual proof. I’m Australian and no one would have a clue who Kaylee McKeown is. The general population only knows the names of Ian Thorpe and Emma McKeon.
@@australiancreepycrawlies6417 @ccbgaming6994 Swimming is AUS most successful Olympic sport but that is completely different issue with regards to overall popularity/actual public profile. The major professional sporting codes dominate the media with Olympics only having any real public profile when they come around. A few gold medallists MAY snag a commercial deal but its far from guarateed.
@@ccbgaming6994wealth?? Australia is one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Per capita gold medals for swimming only.Australia is right up there. I'd say Hungary is on par. Massive swimming powerhouse.
@@australiancreepycrawlies6417that's because swimming is no longer on free to air. It's sad but true. Yester years stars were household names. Today's Australian swimmers are only really known by the swimming community. The yanks have done very well promoting the sport. Well done Phelps. His mission is a success. What a surprise. 😂
Gorbenko will bring gold home🔥
Your maths are awry too! Calculations need to be broken into time zones and further broken down, otherwise the perspective of any comment is stupid.
Distance free is underperforming because Australian men are underperforming in distance
Great video , BUT, not a word about breastroke … you should have include it
Mcintosh takes W200 IM new WR 2:04.75 - 2:05.25
@@realalbertan 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 really?
maybe 400 not 200
Could you make a video on the Indian olympians?
Lol
I interviewed Sajan Prakash in 2018! czcams.com/video/Zxd0e3csA1k/video.html
YOU MEAN THE SIOUX
Maximum one gold for Marchand….
Minimum of 3 I reckon.
@@HENRYMADFUT le rêve éveillé
These takes are not even controversial ☠
BS, how many athletes represent America compared to Aus..
My prediction for Paris is that anyone who doesn't win isn't taking enough dope. And it makes me sad to say that. And anyone who gets caught needs better doctors.
Майкл фелпс 😮
And ofc US will win the most medals, Aus men’s team will not be contributing many medals
8:28 you are forgetting an important bit of information. 10 years ago they were wearing the full body tech suits which are now banned. Those suits were worth seconds just by themselves especially in distance races.
Controversial take: The 1500s are going to be crapshoots 🥲
Cmon 🇮🇪 Wiffen
This guy TRIES hard to present an ubiased analysis, only he doesn't succeed, to USA centric.
Your American and have no idea 😂watch the aussgo
Who's gonna win the 100 breast?
MAGGIE
Guiliano ain't winning the 50 free
Team USA all the way 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Popovici will swim the 100 free at 46.42
Wowsers trousers! If it’s not Kyle, I would want the success to go to David. Seeing that time would be so cool.
@@australiancreepycrawlies6417,ofc Kyle is great,but Popovici is constantly growing and I bet on Popovici.
In Australia we pretty much agree that Cate Campbell is a knob... In sport the real champions are humble let their performances do the talking
Aussies will upset yanks in pool
Still no respect for Popovici, oh boy, u all gonna suffer
Great vid
I wait for a big doping scandal
China.
Sorry but if you can’t spell Cate Campbell’s name correctly you have no credibility.
Swimming is boring nowadays. Just chinese doping 😢
Chinese doping SCANDAL There is literally no proof they doped.
It's about GOLD medal count, not total. Americans I swear lol
No it’s not, what good are podium positions then? What’s the point in depth? Weight the medals differently sure, but it’s not all about just the gold.
Katie looks 60 when she was 16, almost bold. Must doping a lot. USA is much ahead of rest world in doping. Half of team takes asthma medicine “leaglly”
14:13 The Copium is real. americans now counting total medals instead of golds because they know they can't beat us
The US is easily winning more golds than you in Paris lol
@@suhana8516 that's a blanket statement born out of too much arrogance. We already did it at world champs.
@@DrSt-mu4zwThe Australian men just aren’t good enough right now. Anything can happen at the Olympics, but the US go in as heavy favorites to top the medal table
@@DrSt-mu4zw you don't have the mens team to compete with the Americans. It was never just about the Golds, if you look back at every broadcast ever of the Olympics, they always show the gold silver and bronze for each country. You guys started this Gold thing when one time you beat the Americans in Gold medals, at a world championships, and then got all high and mighty.
USA will win more medals, but AUS will win more gold
Marchand can win any event he chooses to race in except maybe backstroke
unsubscribe
Pan will swim a sub 47 to take 100 free gold.
He has been drinking nothing but turtle blood in 2024, he's going to be so fast
@@lucienma4638 David and Kyle
doping communist
Of course he will because he is doped up just like all the Chinese swimmers, if they don't win Gold, I would laugh so hard b/c they cheated and still didn't win.
@@sethaldrich6902 U have to cry loudly cuz your bony head is doped up for sure. 😂