Interview with Anne Stevenson-Yang on China [Eurodollar University, Ep. 192]
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- čas přidán 3. 07. 2024
- Anne Stevenson-Yang has been living in, writing about and/or focusing her work on China for more than 35 years. We discuss: employment not being a bureaucrat's concern, the transition to uneconomic activity, disinterest in simple social improvements, the 20th National Party Congress, and more!
-----EP. 192 TOPICS-----
00:00:00 INTRO: Anne Stevenson-Yang spent several decades living, working and thinking in China.
00:01:20 Anne introduces herself and J Capital Research, her China and equities firm.
00:03:30 Anne moved to China in 1985; Tiananmen Sq. massacre changed the nation's trajectory.
00:06:22 Is unproductive debt used to keep people employed?
00:09:36 How long can China's uneconomic investment continue?
00:11:14 Where is the capital / financing for uneconomic investment in China coming from?
00:13:10 Capital flows to China is now predominantly portfolio flows, not foreign direct investment.
00:16:00 China's economic trajectory changed in 2011-12, 2014-16. Why?
00:20:35 Simple social improvements would benefit the masses; Party members aren't interested.
00:21:56 Does the Communist Party believe the post-Mao system has run its course?
00:25:58 Are the regular households of China satisfied with CCP / Beijing leadership?
00:26:46 What or who is the Chinese Communist Party concerned by? What keeps it up at night?
00:28:11 The 19th National Party Congress.
00:34:29 The 20th National Party Congress.
00:39:15 China is walling itself off from foreigners with a quarantine air lock of rooms.
00:44:15 Might China withdraw from the global stage and turn inwards?
---EP. 192 REFERENCES---
Anne's Book: China Alone, The Emergence from and Potential Return to Isolation: amzn.to/3h19zg4
Anne's LinkedIn: bit.ly/3sWo9Ll
Anne's ChinaFile "Keeping the Flies Out" essay: bit.ly/3Hcbgls
J Capital Research: www.jcapitalresearch.com/
J Cap Twitter: / jcap_research
J Cap CZcams: bit.ly/3Ha2xAh
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Emil CZcams: bit.ly/310yisL
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--------THE TEAM--------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence.
-----FIND THE TEAM------
Jeff: / jeffsnider_aip
Jeff: alhambrapartners.com/author/j...
Emil: / emilkalinowski
Emil: www.EuroDollarEnterprises.com
David: DavidParkins.com/
Terence: www.VisualFocusMedia.com
----------TAGS----------
#AnneStevensonYang #JCapitalResearch #China #JeffSnider #NationalPartyCongress #CommonProsperity
![China's HUGE Trade Surpluses Mask Capital Outflows [Eurodollar University, Ep. 185]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/rxGnupElOVk/mqdefault.jpg)
I am so grateful for Eurodollar University for organizing such an amazing content, not to mention core subjects of money, fed etc. Thank you!
Emil/Jeff: This woman is an amazing personality. This is a major compliment: she reminds me of my mother (I'm 72), another highly intelligent woman. THANK YOU.
This interview was a great one indeed, it is complicated to have truthful insights into China but this information was very interesting. Thanks as always
Great vid... I hope you can have Anne back soon.
Jeff looks very decent and sharp today! I love your valuable contents in CZcams.💚💚💚🍀👍
Thank you very much Ms. Daisy. I will let Mr. Don Juan of the Eurodollar know!
Wow.. what a great guest. I didn't realize Jeff had a listening side to his personality. Emil, you are a great host.
Hey thank you very much. Super.
Excellent guest!
This was really fun to watch, and your channel is great. Anne's description of the diminishing returns of unproductive Capex (the second, third, etc road that no longer lifts economic activity) reminds me of Lacy Hunt describing marginal debt's diminishing effectiveness. I would love to hear you share a conversation with him.
This is some great content !! More of this is very welcome. 🙌
Guys love that you interviewing people. Great addition to format!!
Emil your channel is currently my favorite channel on youtube, thank you for sharing the knowledge
Thank you most sincerely for such an outrageous compliment! Surely you are simply new to CZcams? Have you checked out some of the cat videos? (Thanks!)
Agreed!
Great material! Thank you.
Anne has left Jeff speechless for almost 16 minutes. Lol
Thank you for this very informative discussion on China, Emil.
One of my favorite shows! So densely packed with truth
Such a great interview! Emil is such a good host
Interesting content, thanks guys and Anne!
Back in the 1980's I read (in the Economist, I believe) that Capital Investment represented a large chunk of the USSR's GDP and produced a negative return. The response of the Communist Party was even more capital investments that produce negative returns. At the time I thought the Soviet Union would be around for many more years but when I read that I gave it a rethink. These costly investments had a political rationale rather than an economic one and would likely continue until the political system collapsed under the weight. We've been getting more and more of these sorts of "investments" in the US, which I view with concern.
There was a moment when I thought Simon Ley's "Chinese Shadows" was no longer relevant when discussing China's future. Seems like it is fast becoming re-relevant.
USSR also fell because Gorbachev used to scratch his bum wrong(I think I read in Financial times).
GREAT interview. This Anne lady is dialed in, no question about it
She is, as to China. As to the U.S. she is obsessively phobic of populist conservatism. But her insight on China is deep, and way ahead of the crowd.
@@daveallentown6868 agree
First! Love y’all’s content!!! Keep up the great work!!!
You guys are amazing 🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽
Neat! Awesome. Thank you.
How is common prosperity different than the lobbying mechanism in the US?
So many people can’t deal with visionary’s,time always tells ,we all have to keep and open mind. Thanks Anne , Emil and Jeff
Thank you Ms. Atkinson, appreciate the time to leave your thoughts. Yes, an open mind is hard to keep I find.
Hey, Emil! Your not looking too bad. You can easily pull off not wearing a tie
Loved it.
Excellent interview and conversation. Thank you
Second time I've listened to this one. Excellent!
Fantastic, so much inside about China. US politicians should be forced to listen to this.
Excellent talk
Good.job Emil..great guest and strong questions!!
Such a fascinating and valuable interview! It's hard to come by honest info about China.
Two charming young men and a lovely lady and great content. Love your work!
Awesome guest
The reference regarding packing noodles was startling. At Ho chi minh airport 3 years ago. Chinese people packing full suitcase of noodles!
I saw similar things.
Well done, thanks for that hard to get authentic perspective on China that has been so heavily distorted by rivalry of late.
A lot of the confusion people have about China is that it is hard for most folks to wrap their minds around just what a population of 1.3 billion people means.
There is a real center of gravity culturally that is very difficult to separate from the politics. I think that this is the dog that wags the tail. Is the CCP the dog or the tail!!! Most interesting was entertaining the idea that there is any possibility that Xi won’t be on top after the 20th Party Congress. Is that really a thing?
This is a book on the 2015 trade deal between Canada and China, by Gus Van Harten prof Osgoode Hall Toronto ( very prestigous) and london school of economics before that, "Sold down the Yangtze; Canada's Lopsided Investment Deal With China" james lorimer and co. Toronto, 2015.
Great when I hear book recommendations from speakers
The exact same process is underway in the US, at a significantly lower magnitude
Great interview. To add to the talk I would like to add that to apply for jobs the Chinese had to pay a fee for an application.
Finally good to hear someone point out that Mr. Snider is overly cynical. It often gets in the way of his substance and, therefore, is unfortunate. As for the guest, Ms. Stevenson-Yang, it was nice hearing the perspective of someone who had boots on the ground for an extended period of time. But, in the end, no one can know how politics in China will unfold and what the ramifications on investments will be. It promises to be interesting of course.
Ann's book i read few years back. Pretty much she has been spot on. Thanks Guys.
Wow! We have found all three readers!
If you can get Irene Yuan Sun author of The Next Factory of the World or Deborah Brautigam on the show, it would be epic.
This was such an outstanding interview, I added some distance to my desert walk just to finish the podcast. On return, with aching feet, I tried to buy Anne's book but it appears unavailable for purchase, in any format not even from amazon, except perhaps from the gift shop in Emil's palatial beachfront lair in the Caymans. While I found a pdf of the book free download online (soon to be reader four!), my conscience brain is berating my cheapskate brain that the author should be compensated somehow. Any recommendations?
Sadly no, no ideas. Email Anne herself and ask (she gave her email at the end of the show).
Having lived in Luxembourg, I think I should let you know that there are a lot of foreigners. It's one of the places where the EU commission is. So, China must have tons of foreigners then if it's a per capita comparison
Not per capita, but absolute.
This question is a bit off topic, but are there any Chinese who are named Ying Yang?
Hi Emile...I enjoy the in-depth topics in your videos.
However, I would enjoy seeing more "visuals" in your videos.
Seeing peoples shining faces is one thing...but if you are truly wanting to teach people...you should solidify the nuances these complex relationships by using visuals that work while folks are talking.
George Gammon does a good job of this....and you should take a page from that book.
Thanks,
- Rob
Rob....why don't you help him out on that end.
Stop whining...
Not sure if I missed the discussion but I was expecting some thoughts on the commodities hoarding talk that's going on and reasoning behind it. You share weakening exports of China charts time to time, then why the hoarding. In fact China is apparently increasing its strategic oil capability even now at expensive dollars. What are Chinese fears, etc.
Damn. That would be a great question; I blew it. Surely it’s on their site; the commodity coverage.
She has a lot of observations, but the local small stuff will not change the trajectory of China's overall advances as a country.
You might as well be talking about any of the top OECD countries regarding waning ROI for infrastructure project, which leads to increasing dependency on financial investment flows, which have also been slowing since 2008. This is a common modern pattern of Capital development all over the ‘developed’ world.
Politicians pander and direct resources to their constituents? Why is the corruption criticism hardly ever pointed at the west? Because it’s legal here, but the amount of Capital resources and legal decisions handed out to corporate interests is way bigger than any of us realize, and most likely way more than all our corrupt enemies combined.
At 15:15 they mention someone called Petis or something like that. Does anyone know who they are taking about? Thanks.
Michael Pettis, China’s Financial, Carnegie Institute
@@EmilKalinowski Brilliant, thank you Emil. A great show.
@@ivancho5854 Lovely. THank you.
I've always held to President Reagan's view that the communist model will always fail. I then traveled to Goungzough China in 03 (in the hot zone of SARS 1) for the adoption of my daughter and was amazed at the lack of middle class, there were Mercedes and bicycles with stacks of goods on them. The one thing that was unmistakable is the Chinese people loved America and didn't meet one unkind person.
👨🌾🐮👍what a good guest ! Theres a study of the 2015 Trade treaty between Canada and China by a trade law proff in Toronto. I can look up the physical book and author if its of interest. He is concerned about limitation of our sovereignty and embedding this Chinese communist govt in Canada via this treaty: the stupid side of globalization. Ill try to post you the details later today .
Those "simple things" are not universally applied in the United States ,let alone China.
The political atmosphere of China under Xi has indeed turned very tight
While corruptions in China are illegal but nobody enforces the law, the corruptions in the U.S. are legalized such as politicians pass legislation to buy votes.
Cliche; bumper sticker sloganeering.
@@EmilKalinowski slogans don’t have to be wrong
No sound
It's possible that the very first blush of the video doesn't have audio when it is still processing. If you click play a second after it posts... Anyway, the sound is there (now?).
The catalyst for China is that the government does something right, incidentally
I’ve told my wife many times that I am like the Chinese culture, long and deep.
Halfway I rushed to the book shop, bought the latest globe, and spin - look, spin - look I can 't see the China the lady is talking about.
Anne gets so many facts wrong I don't know what to make of the rest of the claims that I'm not familiar with. My litmus test about Chinese politics is whenever someone mentions Bo Xilai as a challenger for Xi in 2012, s/he has no idea about how politics works and decisions are made in China.
Hard to reconcile your comments against her 30+ years of on the ground experience without examples of your claim.
@Emil Kalinowski
Seems that your guest's book (and presence on your show) has ruffled some feathers. What a surprise that white knights (or are they red?) are coming out to protect what must be a rather delicate porcelain image. Tsk, tsk, you naughty Westerners.
Link supplied to the digital edition comes out as 'unavailable'. Wonder why... does WaPo's owner fear offending the Mandarins of the Worker's Paradise?
Hope hard copies exist somewhere.
@@EmilKalinowski Experience in China alone means nothing. Anyone over 30 in China has over 30 years of experience. Would that give you a billion experts on China?
@@EmilKalinowski As to Bo's case, you would need to know the factions and their history within the party. Particularly how Xi's father was marginalized within the red elites following the suicide of Gao Gang in 1954 and how Xi was picked as successor by Jiang's inner circle members, particularly Jia Qinglin and Zeng Qinghong, back when he was a provincial official in Fujian Province with no hope getting promoted further. He did not have any real prospect for assuming ultimate power if not for Jiang's coup like move to make him heir-apparent in 2007 when Hu was president. Prior to and shortly after assuming presidency in late 2012, Xi did not have real power, thus could not fight against any coup if there was one. The fact is, Bo did not challenge Xi or his upcoming presidency. His downfall was an entirely different story. (Fun fact, Bo was a big brother figure to Xi growing up and thru their teenage years, but that is irrelevant.) Xi's power comes after he became president and through his shrewd alliances and maneuvers within the factions to get out of the thumb of Jiang & co.
@@mindormood1 So in your opinion is Xi somehow a brilliant strategist ?
In summary: China learn and adapt, more concern about issues at home. Meanwhile in the west: still somehow believe they are the center of universe, freaks out about virtually anyone and anything different from the west.
Triggered much, Ping?
This is the most ironic thing ive ever seen on youtube. My god, the oblivious and blinding myopia 😂😂😂
The lady is in favor of central planning, welfare & socialism via gov't spending in lieu of capital investment & growth ? I'm out.
The chinese trolls move quick
China was the largest trading country in 2021, did they sell roads to other countries. Don't make any infrastructure in the U.S and remind the people that it is a waste to do so as in China. What a slippery bunch
It is surprising that she lived in China for 25 years but still does not quite understand the Chinese tradition and culture.
Yes, that would be VERY surprising, so surprising that I am incredulous that it would be true.
It is a huge continent with many dialects. The language and writing would be difficult to understand across China, without which there is bound to be some lack of knowledge of the culture. I am not surprised at all. Great observations of how the basic financial system works compared to how we perceive it to work.
⭐ pքɾօʍօʂʍ
My IQ jumped up 10 points after watching this interview!
Wow, up to 11 now?
@@arachosia Very funny
I think the PRO China😉😉🇨🇳 will continue improving. I don't think that the PROC will remain economically socialistic. The ROC-Taiwan continues to keep and cultivate economically Western values and is improving rapidly as a result and I think that the People's Republic of China 🇨🇳 will see that and do likewise, though remain politically authoritarian and become even more ultra-nationalistic...
They've got fewer problems to worry about than we in the West do. I see us heading towards authoritarianism much more than Asia-which appears to be improving.
Good.job Emil..great guest and strong questions!!