What would happen if Russia collapsed?
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- čas přidán 18. 06. 2021
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Russia has sustained itself through all manner of political stress, but what would happen if it collapsed in the 21st century?
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The fact that you believe that Navalny is a credible political force in Russian politics kind of undermines your credibility.
@@noahsolomon726 elaborate what you mean? You’d be a fool to say AN didn’t have any influence on the Russian political sphere
@@noahsolomon726 *Where did he said that?*
Can you make a similar video on USA please??.... There's a civil war brewing...
You conveniently leave out Romania, as usual. It would unite with Moldova and the Black Sea is far from being just a Turkish lake. Also, Poland and Turkey cannot work together without Romania. The influence of Romania would also increase inside the Craiova Group, somebody needs to take up the mantle of protecting the Orthodox world and faith, and after Russia, Romania is the only country that can do that. I could go on and on, but you'll see.
Russian car crash compilations will hold the country together strongly
Yolo
Russia is a country or a bad word?
Dont forget the slapping competitions
😂😂😂
Ah, the main export
After watching this, I feel like Russia is stuck in a vicious cycle of humiliation, collapse, and reformation.
There’s an old joke that says Russia’s entire history can be summed up in five words; “And then it got worse.”
Well yeah it was fun. But now they need to be gone for good. We need to dismantle all the Russian republics and have no more Russia. They are too big too powerful for them to exist any longer.
@@dmytrosednev9867 Good they should try to destroy Russia. It’s been nothing but a threat to this earth. They spread communism across the entire planet. Forced us into a Cold War for 45 years. And now they threaten world war 3 with Ukraine and their alliance with China.
so much eurocentric and uscentric bias
because it shouldnt exist based on modern geopolitical realities.
in the age of nation-states a whirlpool of different ethnicities, religious minorities and a wide variety of cultures spread across the largest landmass on the planet can not be controlled from a single centralized point in eastern europe.
by all measures russia either exists as an authoritarian state that internally reinforces its own nationalism or it collapses quickly.
a similar problem that china is facing but is dealing with very successfully (a process called sinicization/sinofication which is currently underway, albeit in a modern form in Xinjiang).
people forget that the US is a very unique country when it comes unifying an enormous number of people under a common national identity across an (almost) entire continent.
Russian History seems a repeat of the phrase "And then things got much worse."
"And you thought we were bad news," says a Viking raider.
Pretty much.
You gave me a good chuckle! How true, though!
The tittle should be changed to "What happens now that the Russia Federation is Collapsing again..."
The old Russian joke: "we thought we had hit rock bottom, until someone knocked from down below."
umm one correction here: The Russian citizens did not turn against the Tsar because they lost WW1. They were already well on their way to revolution before that happened, and he was forced to abdicate while Russia was still fighting. In fact, Russia kept on fighting for a while after, only signing the treaty of Brest-Litovsk when the Soviets managed to take power. And Germany intentionally released Lenin back into Russia hoping to undermine the new government there, which worked splendidly for them (until a couple decades later at least).
And it had less to do with Nicholas being liberal than it did his numerous poor decisions and the mismanagement under his wife who alienated herself by listening to Rasputin while he was off at the front.
Yes, Rasputin did help bring about the overthrow of the Tsar. Very interesting his name was RasPUITN. Perhaps there is such a thing as reincarnation. Rasputin misjudged his power within the state and his power grab and undue influence with the Tsarina was not appreciated by many Russians. The man had delusions of grandeur, sound familiar?
Honestly you’re correct the tsars wife and rasputin are massive reasons for the collapse of imperial Russia. For one she wasn’t even a Russian by blood and the pissed the citizens off. Also rasputin was a charlatan and that pissed a lot of aristocracy off.
Another correction, Russia does not have 6000 nukes, ready to deploy.
More like 1500. Nukes degrade quickly and are expensive to maintain. Hydrogen nukes lose 50% every 20 years.
Of course, Russia lies. SO they want people to think they have 6000, but they don't. Not even close.
All 3 of your replies are missing for some reason!
True, by 1917 Russia had failed to defeat Germany - as had Britain & France; but the army hadn't collapsed or lost the war. Russia's social / economic structure was unable to withstand the various pressures of a prolonged war with no end in sight. Then rumors of corruption, German spies at the top, Rasputin/the Empress, the Tsar's refusal to make any systemic change, shortages, inflation - and only a spark was needed for revolution. Then came February/March 1917.
Mongolia's navy will single handedly stop Russia's Easter front.
@michael boultinghouse get sunk by the Mongolian navy
@@carlosandleon yes B)
By waving a bottle of vodka
But who will stop the Christmas front?
Lol
What happens to the nuclear arsenal would be the primary concern
When the USSR collapsed the the countries whose territories stockpiles and facilities happened to be in just took de facto control.
This is how Ukraine got a couple nukes. Ukraine later traded the nukes back to Russia in return for a guarantee of independence and acceptance of borders.
It would just happen what has been done before, Russia (now on the East only) gets all their decaying nukes so they can sit on them untill the radiation from the warheads exausts - or if the country collapses they are properly deactivated (with fiscalization from international bureaus pertaining the matter) during the process. There won't be any warhead simply "disappearing" without causing the other countries to track down and wreck any country trying to apropriate themselves of such materials, see how iran or NK did on this sense if you doubt me. (Iraniam marshal simply disentegrated with all his staff with one drone strike, NK nuclear research center bunker imploded)
Russia is a lovely country and its people are the best, however the repression and centralization is always the cause of their demise, not what keeps it together. Russian people keep it together, an overwhelming bureaucratic administration always ruins it.
They would force Russia to give all nukes, West would not do same mistake again as in 1991
@@YanPagh I kind of agree with you. But we gotta to remember ourselves that the Russian people gives 0 fucks about democracy, "freedom" or balance of power. These are western values, we can't force them upon peoples and cultures (just look at Iraq's and Afghanistan's tragedies).
@@andrerothweiler9191 and how you are planning to force someone that has a nuke, umnik?
Well this aged well
China looking at Siberia like: “it’s free real estate”
especially the way the Russian army is performing.
It's Chinese lebensraum
Maybe Belarus would take another shot at trying to annex Russia 😈
And they can finally add that missing -sia to their name and become the True B E L A R U S S I A
Belarus annexes the West
Mongolia annexes the east.
@@ChipmunkRapidsMadMan1869 And the Second Mongol Empire is born.
@@platinovypersik so then it's white Russia because they're caucasian amd not asian?
I think Lukashenko will continue putting himself in the corner, forcing him into Russian hands
Feels like the very concept of a "best-case scenario" went out the window the moment Ukraine was invaded.
You mean the moment when Putin showed his real face of dictatorship and gives a f*** about humanity. The reason why a big number of russian citizens are poor and the overall economic was and is still very weak over the last several years, is because of Putins way to govern his citizens and his country. Now that he does not hide anymore what his real intentions are, I can confidentially say that this is all Putin's fault during his 16 years (almost 17) of presidency, why russia is falling again.
I mean the moment when the cycle of escalating insecurity was intensified due to the invasion. The end result will be undesirable no matter what anyone does at this point. Who the responsible party is, is a valid discussion but a separate one from the context of my statement.
@@bloodrain980 Fully agree that however this eventually plays out, we're all gonna be worse off. The blame however goes firmly to Putin himself. We can debate what prompted him to make the decision, but he had choice. And any justification his executive presents can't be taken at face value, they made blatant lie an everyday part of their diplomatic repertoire.
I can't argue with that. I just don't find the question of blame to be very useful since there are still systems in place to bring other megalomaniacs to power - not just in Russia. I am also concerned about how many bad decisions will be justified in the upcoming years by shifting political responsibility onto the actions of Putin. There is no question at all regarding who's to blame for the invasion but there are also no clear-cut responses where we could justifiably say "we had to do it because of Putin". That's why I'd rather keep the matter of responsibility for the current situation and any debate about future scenarios separate.
The only hope to whom? Of course I would prefer the discontinuation of de facto authoritarian regimes and the implementation of democratic rule in it's stead but if the current system of governance in Russia would collapse and if the total collapse of the Russian Federation wouldn't take place as a result (as described in this video), then dominance over the resources of Russia would still push Western powers (mostly the US) to get involved in the transition. This would either result in a political and cultural repression and moves involving the instalment of political powers both friendly to the West and willing to open channels for resource exploitation in return for assistance in consolidating power (as Western powers are wont to do - as the US even did in Ukraine), or a new space for proxy conflict between the West and China (if India doesn't get involved in an attempt to solidify it's position as a new superpower). All of this is speculation, of course, but there is abundant historical precedent for something like this happening and no precedent I can think of where this hasn't happened (but I'm not a historian). There's still also the matter of the level of power held by oligarchs in Russia, who would hold military sway even in the case of a civil uprising.. I guess the "best case scenario" overall would be if all people of the world would be sick of the systems of power that allow those who consolidate it to rule without any responsibility or accountability. An arousing ideal but meaningless enough to not be considered as a scenario at all. Just feel like that at this point any scenario leads to an outcome that would be highly unfortunate in one way or another, with the caveat that there would still be powerful parties that would benefit from certain scenarios, so "no best-case scenarios" in this context and in my argument only applies to civil society.
Although, again, it's just an educated guess (mental gymnastics and speculation), so who knows.
Maybe Putin got worried after watching this video
Analysis feels like it buys a bit too much into a "Russian World" view that Russia is somehow keeping both Europe and Asia stable by its existence when it is the largest threat to peace in the region both historically and in the early 2022 present.
I quite agree with analysis. Considering how russia operates itself. Wold be interested more in the power fabric, but its always hidden and now it seems like it is operated by fsb, before it was kgb, čeka and tsarist secret police... considering this similarities and national lines of division now, russia should still be stable even whitout projecting its power outwards to its satelites..
One of the functions of empires is to squelch emerging ethnic groups and create stability where no stability wants to exist.
Consider that the Middle East, for CENTURIES was controlled by the Ottoman Empire which repressed those countries and ethnic groups which have been fighting each other since the end of WWI when France and Britain kicked the Turks out, figuring they could do a better job. They couldn't. Neither has the American World Empire.
Now imagine the American World Empire trying to prevent dozens of ethnic groups in the Eurasian heartland from blowing each other, and the world, up with nuclear weapons. No thanks! We NEED a strong Russia!
And you are not dangerous? Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yugoslavia, Afganistan. No?
@@user-bs8gx6km9i Fuck ruZZia and fuck SERBIA.
First look at yourself before talking about us.
Caspian Report: What would happen if Russia collapsed.
Russian Neighbors: What would happen if Russia expands.
nothing good for Russia for sure))
Imagine a country that cant take care of it's own people living in poverty, wants to take your country... LOL
@@kalesims6540 countrys with poor populations (serfs) often have incredible armys. because nobody can compete while treating their own people humane
@@MrFrazer5800 cheap workers are great. the power is dependent on how geared the nation is towards its military industrial complex. Russia is strong not because of their economy, but because their hardware is comparable to US hardware and far FAR cheaper.
@@KleptomaniacJames a naval engineer in Russia earns the equivalent of 700 usd. Which is a shit ton in Russia so you can live like a God especially because your quarter good ect is all covered by the military. Now look at what the US pays a single foot solider for example. That's why they are so into the whole training militias all over the world and arming them. Because they want to save money.
This is even more interesting given the current context of the Ukraine invasion and Putin’s behavior.
Especially given the devestating economic sanctions that ensued.
With the collapse of Russian economy caused by sanctions and isolation the Russian population might uprise and force Putin to flee while other thugs see their chance come to take over the country.
For this case China as 'peace keeper' is patiently waiting to grab the ressourceful provinces in the East and Siberia to exploit them for themselves because almost nobody to protest is living there anyway.
@@JackoBanon1 the other thugs are the USA. they want those minerals to make more microchips. creating a technocracy requires lots of microchips. Ukraine supplies between 50 to 70% of the world's neon gas needed for microchips.
@@genkiferal7178 naw we can continue to cheaply import those rare earth elements and minerals from the mining regions in the transpacific belt in Mexico. A lot closer, and relations have been long established
@@Rytoast99 I hope you are correct and thank you for telling the region. I will look it up.
A bit over a year after this video was released, we’ve learned that this despite its exceptional value of information is ultimately proven not to age well. Russia has embarrassed itself with its surprisingly weak military against a much smaller opponent that is doing so well that Russia’s original plans can never be met in Ukraine forcing Russian forces to retreat to try and fight for scraps instead of the entire country. Russian power is a facade. They have no power, and with a GDP smaller than that of the city of New York City, I believe Russia is indeed on its way to total and complete collapse as we know it.
The war still didn't end. Many things can still happen.
It started when the USSR was on its legs and the better and smarter people from the other lands within the USSR recreated their own countries, leaving the husk that is the Russian Federation in the hands of Wall Street, former members of the CPSU and the Russian Mafia ; all of the other, smarter people left to go abroad. Hell, more of them are living in the other former Soviet Republics today!
The RF was stillborn from the jump, and Putin and his cronies just makes it more obvious that's always was the case.
@@josesousa272 Yes Russia can self humiliatry even in a worse way along showing they are the same if not worse than the Nazis.
I was thinking the same thing. I've watched some of Caspian's analysis before and thought they were quite good. But this analysis of Russia has proven to be incorrect. Pretty sure Poland isn't going to invade Ukraine. A destablized Russia might bring about changes in Belarus authoritarian regime.
The glaring omission from this analysis is the reactions of Finland and Sweden.
@@WestOfEarth If Poland gets involved it would be because NATO gets involved and in such scenario Poland would be fighting Russia and Belaruss along the rest of NATO.
Beside Poland has been one of the biggest and better supporters of Ukraine in this war so far.
I used to think that Russian army was the second best in the world. Now it appears to be the second best in Ukraine.
Just like us army was the best but still lost in vietnam. Or Napoleon in spain. When the population is willing to resist (yeah France , I’m looking at you). It’s extremely hard to conquer
@@olegshtolc7245 Cry hard Moscow troll hahahahaha.
@@paolosantiago3163 wow you are so limited
Bro by your logic Afghan goat herders are the strongest army lol.
*Russia, exists:* "This is bad."
*Russia, ceases to exist:* _"This is worse!"_
Lmao
New 50 countries will be finaly free from Moscow it's good
Enter vs Fuck go back
@@slavauukraini shut up
@@alexgaming8834 tell me your position, you happy to be democracy and independent?
This analysis misses the most likely reason for a meltdown, namely : a dysfunctional transition of power post-Putin. And Putin's demise could come about by any number of conditions. If he voluntarily cedes control to a successor that would (presumably) prevent a dysfunctional transition. But if the transition occurs under any other circumstances it could get real messy.
Correct. But even with Putin dead, what the speaker is pointing out is that by itself the Russian nation and state are just too strong to disintegrate over a political crisis. You may have chaos, you may have unrest and conflict, in the end Russia will just reassemble.
A pertinent observation. The Putin succession will be the most complex situation Russia will face in the future, barring WW3 or extra-terrestrial disclosure (pun intended).
@Im too tired Do you know how long Russian Epire bigger than todays Russia existed lol ?
@Im too tired Yes but in the eyes of the people RF is just an extensions of the USSR and the Russian Empire. It's ingrained in the conscience of the people that all that territory is one country - Russia. The point is when Putin dies and if the transition of power isn't peaceful it's unlikely that a civil war will start and that different warlords would control parts of the country. What might happen is that you'd have a different government every few years that gets dethroned in a coup when some new opposition gains power. But tbh I don't think that will happen, Putin probably has or will have a successor when he dies.
Believe me there will be a Russia after Putin transition, there are already factions forming, they are mostly quiet while Putin is alive. Their biggest challenges will be the deficiencies he will let behind, Russia has gone a long way from where it was 20 years ago, but either they increase their hard-line aprouch or star to form a more European like social system. In the end it will still be a very tradicionalist and conservative country.
There is a huge Muslim minority (around 10%), and in Chechnya and Dagestan they even openly revolted; the East might sooner or later fall under Chinese influence or even control.
Many Chinese people settle there, and some day Beijing might argue with the same reasons, Moscow used to annex the Crimea peninsula.
And the East has many resources China desperately needs.
If the Russian government collapsed, then I would like to believe the rest of the world would be willing to help the people of Russia. I’m an American, but have no hatred or animosity towards the people of Russia. Most of them are just like me. They work, take care of their families, have fun with friends, and just want to be peaceful with others.
They’ve got to get rid of Putin, he’s playing that Russia is the USSR and he’s Stalin
False. The West would just come to Russia, and take ALL natural sources freely, and leave Russia deserts.
@@elfbeaned how do you know?
Are you saying they’re not? How do you know?
I hope so too 🙏
This is aging very, interestingly.
This video became more relevant than anticipated
Have faith in JESUS CHRIST as LORD and SAVIOR for HE SAVES ❗️
*What is the Gospel?*
The true gospel is the good news that God saves sinners. Man is by nature sinful and separated from God with no hope of remedying that situation. But God, by His power, provided the means of man’s redemption in the death, burial, and resurrection of the Savior, Jesus Christ.
Ephesians 2:8-9
For it is by grace you have been saved through faith. And this is not your own doing; it is the gift of GOD, not a result of works, so that no one may boast.
Romans 10:9
9 because, if you confess with your mouth that Jesus is Lord and believe in your heart that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved.
JESUS CHRIST can come anytime!
Just Believe ❤️ Love you and GOD BLESS
@@tama3442 Jesus Christ won't do anything. Praying to God will only give you a false sense of security. Make your own change. Donate. Volunteer. Work in services that benefit the progression of positive values in society. Dont expect some god to bring you sollace and peace of mind while thousands of civilians are bombed to death. While prisoners die of abuse in NK. While the Taliban, russians and Chinese stamp out political opposition through brute force. While millions or billions of people do nothing because "god will fix this." If the bibles god really existed, he MADE this! "It was gods will I ran over the baby in the driveway this morning." - George Carlin.
Thats all I need to say when people preach about god's love
@@tama3442 There is unfortunately no exact way of reporting this irrelevant comment, since it doesn't count as commercial, and maybe isn't spam. But take your message elsewhere, mate, its got no place in this thread. Just have a look at the title, and then look what you have written. Is there any relation between the two? No, so please desist from foisting your religion on other people.
this video became relevant
@@tama3442 This is not a church mate.
You are a vocal artist and magician, next to being an amazing historian and storyteller. After watching this episode, I actually feel the perpetual nightmare the Russian people are in.
Well first of all Ukraine, Poland, and Romania would be celebrating. 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳
"The greatest danger of the 21st century is a weak, fragmented Russia".
2022: challenge accepted
First off one should realize your leader is a tyrant when he forces the country to make him Supreme leader for the next 20 yrs! Russia will not collapse there a several viable, proud and competent candidates who would be fair and just and quite able to run the country.
The clear danger in every century are tyrants that rape and pillage, thereown, and there neighbors ! How does one not see that, history has many examples...do you not read history?
Imagine what would happen if THE USA was to “dissolve” into separate countries..... that is what you would call DISRUPTIVE!
@@painmt651 here is why that would never happen, as Americans we enjoy, our right for those freedoms, we are free to visit, move, and reside in any state in the union. Also with our state election process, there is no plausible way for any one state official to declare themselves, Supreme leader. The system is by far no way perfect, but it works. Democracy in America thrives, the people vote there,( in there personal opinion,) the best candidate to office. Again this process inhibits the threat of tyranny. And if there is a conflict between stated, we discuss it, we don't go to war, and kill innocent citizens to make our point,or for monetary gains. Yes there was a civil war, but innocent people, weren't targeted. And the issue was slavery!
@@whtghst8105 bro paint was just trying to make a joke why are writing a whole paragraph to just disprove him.
Definitely would like to see more "what if [country] collapsed" videos
Ye, but it's only interesting when it's superpowers like Russia
Yep, I'd like to see a video series on (hypothetical) nation collapses, too.
@@IAtarenI I would like to see what would happen in the world if the United States were suddenly disunited
@@IAtarenI Brazil would be a good one, would their neighbors invade? Or some country ready to take the Amazon rainforest and it's resources? Like France right there with french Guiana
What if *major geopolitical catastrophe happened* is good by any means.
What if the EU collapsed? What if China and India went to war? What if Israel nuked someone? What if Greenland conquered the Northern hemisphere?
China would be negligent if they didn't move into the new vacancy.
This is becoming increasingly more likely
Why replace an enemy you know, with an enemy you don’t know.
Just dont give them humanitarian aid this time, alright? Let them eat each other out.
Won't stop the democrats from trying.
@@belchbelch667 Honestly cannot tell if you knew that was a euphemism for a certain sexual activity before you typed it
@@kabulykos did not know. Thanks!
we are not enemies though. and some russians do remember the humanitarian aid and thankful for that.
I could see Estonia invading and taking over the entire continent.
baltic siberia jfc
@@esotericulmanist8331 sending Russians in train wagons to the Narva?
I haven't met a single Estonian, or any other Baltic who would give enough of a damn to risk his skin for territorial gains in Russia.
Russia is Russia for a reason.
@@daszieher i doubt there is anything good near border worth taking over. ONLY shitty undeveloped areas. There is no way we could even control areas far in Russia only close to the borders.
I doubt modern Latvia wouldn't even take Region that was given to Russia by force Abrene because there is no infrastructure and who would want more Russians in country lol.
With cost of “black gold” at 15-23 dollars per barrel, the USSR economy collapsed, and the sovok itself collapsed, and the "golden" horde ("russia") budget can only be fulfilled only with oil price at $ 42.4 and higher
I've always felt that Russia's greatest weakness was geography. Inherent to modern political stability is the ability to protect your borders. Russian cannot fully protect its borders (the reason why it's been in love with satellite/buffer states for so long). Historically, this didn't matter since countries could pretty much remain cultural/political isolationist and such vast land and borders like Russia has actually served as a protective barrier in itself. But transportation and technology has changed what borders use to mean and the global economic juggernaut means we all have to play nice. We're now in a race for limited resources and this will place Russia in the crosshairs of the many bordering (and non-bordering, for that matter) countries that will eye their resources as both abundant and imbalanced to global needs. Things like their internal cultural and political influences will pale in comparison to a world that wants Russia's stuff. It's the global economy that's calling the shots now.
Borders? Who in their right mind is trying to cross their border…. Oh, I got you, yeah one must keep in all those who would flee a Soviet dictatorship…
@@robertw1871 My sister and I had a border in the back seat of our car when we were little. That didn't work either. Many wars were fought over violations.
@@MrSteve280 Haha
Why is there a need for a country of such low population density to be that big, and why it cannot work peacefully with its neighbours and other nations..
The "security demands" of such a country are incompatible with the global trade framework. Russia should be one fifth or less of its current size. Sooner would the continent of Africa become one nation, than the democratic/globalized world cede on these requirements.
@@mrD66M Like most of Canada, I can only imagine the land was originally too hostile for anyone to want. Same for Brazil. The movie Crocodile Dundee summed up the idea of land being claimed and belonging to people or countries pretty well; "It's like two fleas arguing over who owns the dog they live on".
Only good things I imagine.
With Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the likelihood of the scenario given in this video has been heightened.
Nah
I can easily see it, with everything that's gone on. The world is learning "If you want to share in Global Wealth, You must share in Global Peace
@@Frydrykmastkiller yep. Russia is living in the 50s still. Hopefully when putin is killed and all the soviet boomers die, they will stop being an aggressive state and join other Europeans in peace. We have zero desire to attack them. Its bizarre how insecure they are
@@williammcconnell1212 That is not quite the point this video is telling us. "History replays like a half-forgotten song, but once we remember, it's far too late. The West fell asleep on Cold War sentry duty and thought Putin couldn't be serious, but he was. The question remains, is NATO?" by Neal Ascherson.
@@williammcconnell1212
What makes you think we Europeans have zero interest in attacking Russia?
In 1700'th the Swedes tried to conquer all of Russia and failed.
In 1800th the French tried to conquer all of RUssia and failed.
In 1900th the Germans tried to conquer all of Russia and failed.
Europe is quite determined on trying to conquer Russia and it has been this way in a very long time.
Russian Manchuria: *chuckles* "I'm in danger"
CCP: Hey didn't the Qing use to own this like 160 years ago? Oh It's definitely mine now.
@@F22onblockland There's no such thing as who "owns" what place, only who can control it.
Russian Manchuria is in an unstable equilibrium, and will be reverted China in the long term.
@@TheSuperior100 or not, as China is also fucking imploding
@@riograndedosulball248 .... China is imploding?
@@riograndedosulball248 absolutely it is not
Entire argument is that all neighboring countries would try to “expand their influence” or invade. There, I saved your time.
This is the first Caspian Report that disappointed me with a lack of new insight. Simply repeated what happened after the USSR dissolution except China’s BRI wasn’t a major factor in the 1990’s.
So you are mad cuz history repeats itself?
@@obvious_giraffe8386 No, I’m annoyed because few details were given regarding which neighbor would claim which area, why and the likely outcome. I expect China will work to seize as much as they can from the pacific westward claiming at some time it was “all Chinese”. Maybe they’ll claim Genghis Khan was Chinese as well!
Nobody would really take notice, and that’s what drives Russia mad.
Your forgetting one important fact . That Russia rebuilt its self after the fall of the USSR because the World traded with them and helped them grow . That support is now greatly reduced back too what collapsed the USSR initially . So they are not coming out of this quickly at all .
Why don’t you invest in a CZcams membership? No adds there. For the in show adds I just scroll through which you can’t do with the CZcams adds.
@@kbuddy1 I don't mind paying you tube since I use it often. So if a little money filters down to creators I am good with that.
I believe you are correct. WE SHOULD be a GREAT Customer of theirs. We should be MAKING MONEY from Trade with Russia. I think Putin will have to go for that to take place. But at one time I thought we were going to get together with him and benefit GREATLY from the alliance. It should have been a GOLDEN Opportunity. Putin is going to have to go, and SOMEONE that understands Capitalism will have to replace him. There will have to be a government that is PRO-Capitalist governing them. The USA and Russia both need to CLEAN HOUSE with the idiot politicians in BOTH COUNTRIES. Not much can be accomplished with people like WE have in the USA, the Biden, Harris. Pelosi team is enough to RUIN anything. They could not run a Saturday Night Crap Game. But take a good luck at our Congress, we need to clean house THERE and stick them with some TERM LIMITS. I would NOT hold my breath waiting.
@@kbuddy1 these videos aren't free to make you know. In fact they take quite a bit of work.
The Russian "revolution". wasn't the oppressed fighting back. It was an INVASION by the Bolsheviks. Oppression on an industrial scale. Spoiler alert. Some horrific images of Bolshevik slaughter of Russians
Censorship is validation of the message.
Communism was not created by the masses to overthrow the bankers, Communism was created by the bankers to overthrow and enslave the masses.
“You must understand. The leading Bolsheviks who took over Russia were not Russians. They hated Russians. They hated Christians. Driven by ethnic hatred they tortured and slaughtered millions of Russians without a shred of human remorse. The October Revolution was not what you call in America the “Russian Revolution.” It was an invasion and conquest over the Russian people. More of my countrymen suffered horrific crimes at their bloodstained hands than any people or nation ever suffered in the entirety of human history. It cannot be understated. Bolshevism was the greatest human slaughter of all time. The fact that most of the world is ignorant of this reality is proof that the global media itself is in the hands of the perpetrators. “We cannot state that all Jews are Bolsheviks. But: without Jews there would have been no Bolshevism. For a Jew nothing is more insulting than the truth. The blood maddened Jewish terrorists murdered sixty-six million in Russia from 1918 to 1957.”
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (1918-2008), Nobel-Prize-winning novelist, historian and victim of Jewish Bolshevism.
Official page for the documentary: europathelastbattle.wordpress.com
you forget to mention that when the tsar created the duma he still tried to interfere a lot in the workings of the duma, dissolved it multiple times, prevented universal suffrage, bloody sunday, Gregori rasputin and WW1 all of these combined contributed to the end of the tsar monarchy. if he gave the people what they wanted then maybe tsarist rule might still have continued to exist.
And the same applies to the Yeltis era that Putinists love to use as the ultimate proof of the decadence of democracy, just to get an excuse why Russia should always be governmed by authoritarian maniacs. The guy himself performed a coup against the legal authorities in 1993 and his rule was notoriously corrupt, albeit not as much as that of Putin. Bottom line, neither the 1905-1917 period nor the '90s should be seen as an example of working democracy.
Besides, many other f. Eastern Block nations went through the same upheavals in the '90s but they allowed their democracies to mature. Some of them rolled back most of these changes but as a part of a brand new trend, whereas Putin or Lukashenko act like the Soviet Union simply had never collapsed.
Well, it makes sense. The "stronk" central government Russia usually falls back to would have a hard, specific agenda to follow.
Liberal institutions adds randomness to the country, a degree to change the alter or even ruin a 5 year or even decades long agenda. In the Russian revolution example universal suffrage was probably too much risk for the tsar to comfortably control the nation.
The issue seems that the strong central government leaves a lot of angry civilians but they support it because it's improving the country in some way. The more they try to "democratize" the country to help with stability the more power the opposition has. If the opposition stops or hampers the party in any way more people will lose faith and support the opposition.
@@yarpen26 The former Eastern Bloc aren't as democratic as you claim. Hungary is basically a dictatorship, the PIS hold a lot of influence in Poland and are stacking the courts.
Most countries today are oligarchies or some kind of rule by minority where the wealthiest hold the most influence. Ask yourself. In a typical ''democracy'', who holds more influence? A homeless person or a wealthy billionaire.
@@notaraven Excuses, excuses and even more excuses, the kind that I've heard from actual Russians ad nauseaum. Russia made half-assed attempts at democracy basically twice in its entire history and in neither case was genuine democracy ever established. There is virtually no precedent to speak of. Also, Russia isn't the impoverished hellhole it used to be in 1917 and 1991. It could very well hold regular elections with some actual competition instead of this neo-Soviet farce. The example of the other Eastern Bloc nations proves that much.
And you know what else this precious "stability" provides? The entrenchment of oligarchies. No matter how many times you'll say to the contrary, an actual democracy doesn't give you even 1% of the opportunity to perform corruption than an autocracy. In a democracy, Putin would need to think carefully about how to allocate the money he defrauds and all in all he wouldn't get away with nearly as much as he does under authoritarian Russia, where the prosecution and courts simply _know_ he's off limits. This isn't something that's up to debate, no amount of anecdotal deflection will change that. That is the basic rule of mankind: the less control there is, the bolder the crooks. Even the worst functioning democracy won't see the kind of stealing you can get away with under dictatorship.
And please don't give me the "duh, dude, what about SINGAPORE???" talk. The fact remains that even for a "benevolent" dictator, the only thing that prevents him from stealing his country's assets is his own will alone. Nothing else. And that is why North Korea is the most corrupt state in the world.
@@themeerofkats8908 Yes, there is a reversal in demoracy in both these countries. And now their citizens learn the very valuable thing about democracy: just what happens when it slips out of your fingers.
Is this supposed to be an argument against democracy? That people grow bored with it and look to populist crooks for easy answers?
_Most countries today are oligarchies or some kind of rule by minority where the wealthiest hold the most influence. Ask yourself. In a typical ''democracy'', who holds more influence? A homeless person or a wealthy billionaire._
Yes, and Putin's Russia is a million times worse an oligarchy than any democracy you can name. Primarily because it's not a democracy.
Russia is just one giant miniature golf course. Can't we just raze it already?
Sounds like the world had two opportunities to put Russia down for good and couldn’t make it stick. Third times the charm? Slava Ukrayini!
A proxy war with nuclear arsenal acquirable by combatants of both sides would be a remarkable stupid idea. It does not mean that this could not happen, but control of warlords by proxy is likely go wrong at some time point.
Yeah nuclear warheads have to be used on outside forces not on domestic problems..
It’s likely to go horribly wrong but it’s happened so many times before
@@dragonlord1225: Actually most nuclear weapons exist to be not used at all. Its quite aptly called MAD doctrine.
@@anon2427 : Well until the events with respect to how the EU handled the Greece crisis, I thought that it had been widely understood that certain kinds of power-play are no longer viable - that we must protect all systems that make war unlikely. But well, I do not think, that the EU will survive the precedent the Troika set. I still would like to ask Yanis Varoufakis some questions in that regard. For some academic work and a blog, but that man is busy and I can not reach him.
@@AppliedMathematician If you intent to not use them, the "MAD doctrine" doesn't work. Only if the intent is there, other countries will abstain from trying to attack a nuclear power. Otherwise it's just expensive scrap metal lying around.
The Russian Empire collapsed not because of Tsar Nicholas II liberalizing the state but because the Tsar himself squandered all of his goodwill when he neutered and purged the first attempt at liberalizing that happened immediately after Russia's defeat in the Russo-Japanese War. That first attempt was something that the Tsar himself authorized and then immediately backstabbed because he could not tolerate letting a separate governmental body have the autonomy to issue domestic policies other than him. While that was going on, a massacre called Bloody Sunday (1905) happened and basically lit the powerkeg for the first attempt at revolution. The parallel to this would be Louis XVI of France when the Estates General was summoned, shat on everyone in the Third Estate, annulled the decrees from the Estates General, and prompted the formation of the rebellion from the Tennis Court Oath.
The second time that Tsar Nicholas II tried to "liberalize" was when he was in the middle of the First World War and it had only been 12 years since Bloody Sunday. This time around, no one trusted anything that the Tsar had to say and the unconditional request was for the Tsar to GTFO. Also not helping his image was the fact that the Tsar himself took personal control of the army during WW1 so the war and its massive clusterfuck were directly linked to the Tsar.
You're right. From what I know, by the dawn of the 20th century, Russia reached the point of no return. For centuries, they had not modernised as quickly as the other monarchies in terms of politics and economy.
Do you think the Russian Empire could save itself or went on a smoother power transition if they didn't declare war on Austria? Or was there nothing they could do? I don't know much about history.
Yes, but no. Economic liberalization killed the Russian Empire. Insufficient liberalization of society, too.
Thanks for yet another insightful episode Shirvan!
sounds kinda like how a drunk russian is dangerous both when he's in a bad mood and when he's in a good mood.
yeah, but they are less dangerous if they have no nuke to shoot, either drunk or sober
@@iiitiberiusiii3441 are you like 60 years old?
@@XIXCentury ???
@@iiitiberiusiii3441 did russia ever shoot a nuke? last time i checked it was usa who destroyed nagasaki and hiroshima
@@iiitiberiusiii3441 and its usa who starts endless wars for foreign oil not russia because russia has their own oil from siberia
1917: fall of Russian Empire
1991: fall of Soviet Union
2022: fall of Russian Federation
The russians are always Falling lol
inshallah
I'm not so sure if Russian Federation is going to fall so soon, it doesn't seem that unstable to me anyway
@@xesphor1436 Very few people called the Soviet Union weak in the run up to its collapse. Most of the experts of the day saw it as at the height of it’s power just before the collapse.
If it falls, i am 100% sure it will go out with the big bang of our time, so pray that it doesn't, or it may take everybody with it.
The world would rejoice again and again!!!
Who's here after the failed military coup?
"What would happen if Russia collapsed?"
The European parts would gradually join modern Europe and the Chinese would bite off and pick at the bones of their remaining Asian holdings.
And ww3 begun
@@gog_magpie It already has, probably
@@abrahamdozer6273 well i mean i personally think that the invasion of Ukraine is gonna stop at Ukraine and not go further
@@namesdontmatter885 That is true because Ukrainian infantrymen are destroying the Russian army on the ground.
Had that not happened and the Russians been humbled, they would have kept on rolling, for sure.
They seem to believe their own propaganda about themselves.
@@abrahamdozer6273 Hahahaha... Sure they are, and sure the reports about 20 000 dead Russian troops for the loss of 2000 Ukranian troops is the real deal, dude they took 1/4 of Europes largest country in 24 days and are still gooing, with 110 000 troops (while Ukraine has reportedly a 290 000 strong army + 13 000 militia men)...
Russia: *Collapses
Germany: *Heavy Breathing*
Germany: Guys! It's Happening! Third times a charm!
@@QuantumAscension1 Well they got them the first time...
Königsberg is free real estate
@@hehe-pt6yb Yeah, but then lost it in the treaty of Versailles
Hans it's time to expand our LIVING ROOM !
It's simple... the World would Rejoice!
By "the world" you mostly mean the US, EU, and Japan.
The claims by Japan to the Kuril Islands is probably also worth mentioning.
They would absolutely take the 4 southern ones they claim and possibly more of them too.
Also chinas claim on vladivostok
@@maximilianh.3890 These claims are rather small compared to the bulk of Russia...
Russia never collapses in a peaceful way, so one might expect a bloodbath
Except it collapsed peacefully after 1991...
@@firstlast5454 Chechnia would like to introduce themselves
@@firstlast5454 mostly peacefully
You talk as if it happens a lot. The collapse of the Soviet Union was pretty peaceful I’d say and that wasn’t even a Russian collapse. What are you referring too?
@@firstlast5454 the differebce between the Soviet Union and Russia is that the Union was comprised of much more concrete entities that (theoretically and in propaganda) worked alongside each other and could have believable reasons to exist on their own. But Russia is already filled with Russians everywhere, so if it falls, a war will be fought until it is united (all of the scattered ethnic groups within the sea of Russians make this process even bloodier)
Is there no possible scenario where, after the collapse, the country gets led by a human being?
The west pushed up to its borders... It will fight to the last man... THe next push will be nuclear weapons... You cannot cancel a world power
@@cooldudecs The West "pushed up" to nothing. non-Soviet countries simply exist. I don't think the expectation is to get rid of a world power. The aim should be to minimize the mentality of aggression within that world power. When Ghengis Khan died the Mongol hoards diminished, dissipated and disappeared. Putin is a living warlord dinosaur.
If you cannot envision an outcome other than nuclear destruction on some level then you just aren't "thinking.. man".
@@davidpetersen1 the west pushed
whatever
Everyone you hate is still a human being, not a caricature.
I like that this video is 10 months old and not influenced by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
This is suddenly very timely lol
Edit: Fixed quote
Vladimir Putin: "but why do we need such a world if there is no russia?"
Russian world exist only inside Kremlin, small mindset world
@Robert Valentin richest man in the world, 140 millions slaves in his hand
@@slavauukraini and most of Ukraine
@@slavauukraini china: those are rookie numbers
@@user-wx4nv8xr3d most of Russia in hands if China
I like your reports!...
However, I want to comment about some stuff here:
Poland, as a NATO member would NOT invade Belarus and Ukraine.
Ukraine, with Western backing, would oppose Turkey taking Crimea.
Turkey cannot invade Georgia while being in NATO. They would be thrown out of NATO and possible fought. (But that wouldn't happen)
But OH YES, China would move in in every direction to take over Mongolia, Siberia and the eastern Russian ports and islands.
It is CHINA, not the West, to worry about in this scenario!
It’s been China for 30 years but the US was complacent and didn’t realize what was happening
Turkey invaded Cyprus and NATO did not declare war on them, the United States wants to expand its influence, and if Turkey and Poland seize territories under themselves, they will get it. At the expense of Cyprus, Cyprus was British and gained independence, and in order for the USSR not to gain control over it, the United States allowed Turkey to attack Cyprus and put a puppet government there, thereby causing its division, just as the United States fought in Iran and helped the Taliban to come to Afghanistan, while Russia only looked at it and collapsed under pressure
And Poland is already invading Ukraine and Poland, just not directly, in Ukraine in 2014 during the civil war, a pro-American government was transformed that does everything to join Nato, and in Belarus, permanent sent oppositionists from Poland raise rallies, this situation has escalated in recent years, in Russia, it is also possible to note Navalny who studied and grew up in the USA and then began to call himself a Russian patriot and raised about several million people to rallies
@@limo7779 USA probably didn’t want to jeopardize the alliance in the East by punishing Turkey in the 1974, considering how that time was dominated by Vietnam exit, and the belief that nato forces were behind in the ability to fight the war pact
Why should NATO start a war with a member of itself because of a conflict with a non-member to begin with? You guys aren't very smart if you don't see the obvious reason behind NATO: contain and fight Soviet Union. US did however punish Turkey for the liberation of Turkish Cypriots (yes, Turks weren't keen on seeing their kinsmen slaughtered further like on Bloody Christmas 1963 and the events after) by embargoing its own ally aka the reason why ASELSAN was founded and why Turkey is now striving for critical independence in all war tech.
He says Russia but he means "russian oligarchy."
Guess we're going to find out fairly soon
oooh I think this could be a good series! seeing what would happen if different countries collapsed.
Agreed my slimey green brother. it would suit the current global tone of a collapsing Empire 🍌🗽
Next should be USA, then China, Iran, Korea, Venezuela, 😁👍👍👍
Seeing what would happen if the UK collapsed/broke apart would be interesting
Canada. Just because no one asks the question but I’d be genuinely interested in what happens.
Especially ramifications to the Northwest Passage.
No
9:19 Shirvan let's be frank, today’s episode must be sponsored by RZD Russian Railways 😎
Lmao
We’re about to find out
This video will age well
Russian prestige already declined even before 1917, when it lost the Russo-Japanese War in 1905
I was surprised Shirvan didn't start with the 1905 Revolution. Even though it failed, it was pretty damn important.
@@sdstacey46 yep, after 1905 liberal reforms doomed Russia
Lol, in 1905-1914 Russia has an economic boom, illiteracy level has fallen nearly twice and Russian Imperial Army became biggest in the world. If WWI had started not in 1914, but in 1920s, Germany would have no chance.
*Russo-British War 1905
@@radziwill7193 Russo-russo war, how one year of swlm by baltic fleet was lost ln one day, that's my homeland only motherland must do eplc everything even lose only lf EPlC LOOOOOOSEEEEE
Up next, Collapse of Russia sponsored by Skillshare.
The logistics of Russia collapsing. o.O
Want to know how to search for lost nuclear weapons? Skillshare will help you hone the skills you need to blackmail the local warlords into giving them up.
Poland invading Ukraine because of a weak Russia? Big time joke!
It is looking more and more possible.
I always figured the problem is the Central Asian geography:
* It is sparsely-populated with valuable but expensive resources.
* There are few natural borders, making them easy to dispute and leading to strong armies.
* Armies are hierarchical in nature, leading to corrupt authoritarian politics rather than democracy.
Neighbors are generally self-supporting agriculturally and industrially, want those resources, but none can hold exclusive access, leading to endless wars. I see no short-term solution, but long-term, as the world becomes wealthier and raw resources represent less and less a percentage of that wealth, war will become less and less profitable.
Which is why, after the impending collapse or Russia the former federation should be put under international stewardship for a few decades and unlike after the last collapse, not robbed blind but helped as independent nations into representative democracy.
I believe that Steiner's counter attack has finally arrived.
Demarcation!!
@@alswann2702 Is all Stransky's orders. I had no part in it!
Im reading that book right now.
Nova 6
That was a befell!
interesting! thank you for producing!
Good insights. TY. Subbed.
Why, you may take the most gallant sailor, the most intrepid airman or the most audacious soldier, put them at a table together-what do you get? The sum of their fears.
13:19 : 'China would aim to convert Mongolia into a client state ...... " I'm surprised Shirvan didn't mention that China will just literally walk unhindered into Vladivostok to reclaim that city and re-occupy the entire Russian Fast East including Sakhalin island
Like he said, the US and whatever could be propped up of Russia would become alllies real fast if that happened.
@@corruptikoo2683 Manchuria is already a part of China. And why would China ever want Russia to collapse? China will then have to face the US alone, and the US is certain to try to march in from Alaska and grab whatever it can in Russia's Far East, and that would lead to a land border between China and the US somewhere on current Russian territory, not something China would ever want! China and Russia resolved all of their land dispute in 2003. There is no conflict between the two.
US STATE OF CHUKOTKA
US STATE OF CHUKOTKA
I could see the fate of Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai and the rest of the Russian Far East becoming the center of a major potential flashpoint between USA/Japan and China. China would want to reclaim land it lost hold of centuries ago, the US and Japan would both aim to contain China as best as they can, and Japan itself may want to reassert control over territories like Sakhalin, which China will want to contain and which the US may be very cautious about
@@pineapplesareyummy6352 we will have our territories back no matter what. we will own entire siberia and replaced the native siberian in there.
@@loks117 No. You won't.
welcome to the Soviet Fire Sale.
All empires are doomed to implode, the question is when! Just think about the Persian, the Greek, the Roman to name a few. They all broke up in smaller pieces and so will Russia.
The US Empire is also doomed, just in case you hadn't thought of that.
@@mvp019 the USA doesn’t have a empire
@@jmpmp_505 It absolutely does. In fact, it is the world's only real empire at present. If you can't see that, you can't see anything.
@@mvp019 by definition and empire is
an extensive group of states or countries under a single supreme authority, formerly especially an emperor or empress or
a large commercial organization owned or controlled by one person or group. Which the USA has nether
@@jmpmp_505 As a Norwegian politician so succinctly stated, "The USA is 'Empire by Invitation'" - either you comply with the USA's wishes, or they will crush you.
The USA actually fits your definition really well, with military forces in over 100 countries, illegally occupying Syria, waging war wherever it wants while killing millions, and trying to extend its hegemony globally, only instead of an emperor, it is run by a corporate cabal.
But then, there are none so blind as those who will not see. Save your semantics games for someone else.
well this is just around the corner
Russia: very high chance of collapse
.
.
.
Also Russia: let's expand
well thats the only way to keep unity is to create a hope to expand further and bring riches from outside for its citizen. Something US also does by constantly invading other nations.
@@sumitshresth Well USA does not annex, it is a huge difference
Welcome to Empire lol
@@andrerothweiler9191 tell that to Middle East
Which Middle Eastern country became part of the US?
A very good video, thank you for putting this together, well done.
Russia experiences “Years of Trouble” throughout her history. A pattern of troubled years occurs on an irregular frequency. There is one notable example where Russia struggled for almost a decade about 5-600 years ago and that event is known as “Years of Trouble”…
Listen to him in 1.5 and you'll appreciate how decisive the reporting can be.
What about the Tuvan republic? It borders Mongolia, it is over 80% ethnically Tuvan and most locals speak their own language instead of Russia. You could see this as a breakaway region
But does the Population actually Wish to Break away?
There's a "Tuvan Republic"? Fuck, I feel geographically stupid.
But then, tuva is one of the most impoverished regions in the Russian federation, and as Shirvan mentions, such place's lack of sustainability might force it to align with a stronger neighbor, most possibly a newborn russian central government.
Also it's worth mentioning Tuvans are not Mongolic like their neighbor, they are Turkic, meaning they wouldn't have the ethnic sentiments that'd back up their supposed integration efforts with mongolia, if complete independance wasn't feasable
Tuva or bust .. Richard Feynman
czcams.com/video/fuqm4FGzo20/video.html
@@Imperator_-sl4zu Seems like a perfect candidate for some US military bases, with the added bonus of massive economic support of course.
These mini reports are very intriguing and informative.
world would be a better place
Blinkist: "Let's try to shorten the general attention span even more!"
The Cobra effect is everywhere.
No fap: I’m here to save u
I mean hey, the attention span is shorter may as well capitalize on it
Well... Here we are.
We are getting closer to the possibility of finding out irl
It’s really nice that we’re talking about the political and economic state of the world rn
All depends on how well China is doing at that point of time.
China could overtake the east.
Gotta restore the Tang Dynasty borders
@@danshakuimo Qing
And hold it not for long. America won't allow it and Russia can easily defeat the chinese.
my ass, china gonna overtake
The Chinese will slowly keep sending people into the Russian far east and one day will own it all. Without the Chinese money, the east would be EXTREMELY poor. Russia is to broke to hold on to it.
8 months later here we are
Just found your channel and I must say your report on Russia was quite informative. I learned quite a bit about Russia that I didn’t know. Thank you sing consider me a new subscriber!
we are looking forward to this
"What if Russia collapsed?"
Mongolia: my time has come!
Friedman thought that the U.S was going to have a massive Pacific War with Japan. The dude's forecasts have honestly been bunk almost universally.
Ive seen that one
If Russia collapsed economically, that is one thing. The monetarists always want the status quo and something could be worked out with Putin gone and Russian petroleum earmarked for repayment of debts. Now if there's a political collapse, it won't be an Oklahoma type of landrush. The world doesn't work that way. Definable areas would be named as such, with UN or local protection of the rule of law. Eventually, a Moscow-centered nation with St. Petersburg too would be recreated.
Excellent analysis as usual.
CaspianReport recounts the events of _Call of Dury 4: Modern Warfare._
What kind of name is soap eh how a muppet like you passed isolation
@@aaronbustamante9282 Always faster to switch weapons
*Duty
Remember switching to your pistol is always faster than reloading.
I cannot explain how much this channel helps me understand the other side of the world and it’s conflicts I live in Canada so the other side of the world always felt a bit alien
Did you not know the world is round!? Russia is closer to Canada than you think.
@@runeciti Most of the biggest conflicts are in Europe, Asia and Africa. Canada alongside USA are protected by oceans. For example how many North American cities where bombed during WW2 compared in Europe?
@@YujiroHanmaaaa There was this nice tropical one in Hawaii...
Did not work out well for the people who did it.
Yeah, central and south america are really chill compared to scandinavia and the brittish islands..
@@marcusmaattaeklund less wars more crime.
This video has become amazingly relevant...
It’s not clear what “collapse” would mean. Fall into anarchism? Warlords? Civil war? Occupation? Or yetlsin downfall? It’s pretty hard to tell.
Hopefully a Yugoslav-style civil war that destroy the Kremlin once and for all. That said an Afghanistan scenario with warlords ruling over small territories is very appealing too.