Bit-Curious? Let's Talk Bitcoin | ITK with Cathie Wood
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- čas přidán 28. 05. 2024
- On episode LI of "In the Know," (January 5, 2024) ARK CEO/CIO, Cathie Wood, is joined by ARK Director of Digital Assets, Yassine Elmandjra. Together, they discuss ARK's history with Bitcoin, bitcoin spot ETF approval, the upcoming halving, and why we believe bitcoin is both a risk-on and risk-off asset. This month we’re again responding to a few requests by supplementing this episode with charts and data to help illustrate ARK’s perspective on and outlook for the global economy.
As always, Cathie discusses fiscal policy, monetary policy, market signals, economic indicators, and innovation. We hope you find this monthly series useful, especially during periods of heightened volatility. Stay Healthy. Stay Innovative.
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:47 - Cathie & Yassine Intro
00:01:41 - Bitcoin in 2024
00:02:43 - ARK’s History with Bitcoin
00:12:46 - Bitcoin Halving
00:14:08 - Bitcoin MVRV (Z-Score)
00:16:00 - Bitcoin Long-Term-Holder Supply
00:19:05 - Upcoming ARK Research on Bitcoin
00:20:04 - Cathie’s Market Summary
00:24:04 - Fiscal Policy
00:24:07 - Total Public Debt Outstanding vs. GDP
00:26:03 -Total Public Debt Outstanding Divided by GDP
00:27:05 - Monetary Policy
00:27:08 - M2 Money Supply vs. CPI: Year-over-Year
00:28:01 - Yield Curve 10 Year Treasury Yield Minus 2 Year
00:29:10 - 10 Year Yield Minus 3 Month Yield: Consecutive Days Inverted
00:30:14 - Recession Probability - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
00:31:14 - Economic Indicators
00:31:19 - The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index
00:31:39 - Total Continuing Jobless Claims
00:32:33 - Temporary Help Employment vs. Total Employment
00:34:01 - Piper Sandler Charts
00:38:33 - Market Signals
00:38:37 - US Dollar Index (DXY)
00:39:17 - Bloomberg Commodity Index
00:39:56 - Metals/Gold Ratio vs. US 10 Year Treasury
00:41:03 - Gold to Oil Ratio - Historical Chart
00:42:23 - Cathie’s Conclusion
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Thanks Cathy and Yassine for explaining the halving I been tryna understand that for a min now 😂
Don't fall victim to the Bitcoin scam
Happy New Year Cathie & Ark!!!
I've always been bit-curious 😂
🏳️🌈
First deposit the hardest but less friction over time
Been bit-ten
I’m just gay 😂
Lol. Best comment!
Cathy you are awesome, always Great context and insight, Thank you.
Awesome...she has made very poor calls re. Coinbase etc. Good marketer. She feeds the amateur & "sheep" a bunch of BS while making $ from them.
@@JuanBarberis who hasn't? Shes by far one of the best plungers on the market. Brilliant and the insight and context is greatly appreciated. I'm a big fan, to hear her insights and opinions is valuable, not only for my learning but I don't feel alone when I hear Ark go on about the future and disruptive tech. Its a calling almost to hear an watch her plays an moves within the equity space. Fascinating!
@@FrankiSotoher promise to her investors is that she can beat the S&P 500. She charges ridiculous fees for that promise.
Yet she has consistently failed to come close to the returns she promises for those higher fees.
Wake up
@@mikev4373 bud im calling it how I see it. She is awesome. Idk about her promises bud. But I do see a brilliant individual, just plunging the market. Like a Modern Jesse Livermore.
I love these monthly videos 🙏
I learn something new and valuable each time I watch Cathy and her guests. I'm a huge ARK fan. Thanks gang!
Are you a fan of less return and higher fees? Check her track record over the last 5 years it's not pretty.
@@guruagency but you are here see how many fingers I have up
@@terrycarlin2443I’m here to see the worshipers of one of the all time grifters.
The math adds up for Cathie. Not so much for her clients.
Great show!
Love the intro music and animation.
Love you too Cathie.
But you should give your art director a hug .....
Happy New Year 2024 Cathy!!!! Cheer's to the Bulls!!!! Go BIT COIN & Friends!!!! ; )
great content! love it
Is there any way I am able to download the slides in this video? 12:59
Happy New Year Cathie!
lets gooooooo !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
its on ,
Thank you Cathie. Wonder when Amazon will start taking Bitcoin? Maybe soon it won’t matter.
Thank you Cathy for your charts and education..
Nice content
Hi Cathie, one comment on the (very nice) inventory chart you shared to sustain the argument of possible deflation. I assume the underlying data has not been inflation adjusted. If this is the case, one should be careful to deduct that warehouses are sitting on loads of stuff, as the values would not reflect the volume reality in the warehouses. Prices for trading goods or retail products have risen easily more than 10-15% since 2020. If you deduct this effect, the volumes should be on-par with 2020 or even below. Just my 5 cents from an OTK fan.
Happy New year
Great interview 🎉
What does halving tell us about demand?
Great vid!!!
Thank you
شكرا لكم الشرح جميل وروعه جدا جزاكم الله كل خير بالتوفيق ان شاء الله❤❤❤❤
y'all are awesome
amazing
To the bots in the comments…. It’s Cathie. Not Cathy
This monthly videos should be weekly videos
It’s so curious! 🤠🕺
You rock Cathy 👊🏻
Where is this months?
This is how I know crypto is going to explode this cycle. Because there are still a ton of people who don’t know anything about bitcoin in the comments section. That means a lot of people are still not invested, which means the ETF is not priced in. This thing is going parabolic next week and will become the greatest halving cycle of all time.😊
Has Cathie ever addressed what she believes will be the impact of FedNow on Bitcoin?
I like and am curious, but I’ll wait for the first Cowboys to go over that hill 😂 but once the spots are approved I will dive in. Did add ($Coin) position back in January 2023, avg $63, will add to the position once it drops to $115 ish range.
Any TP for BTC?
We love you Cathie
What’s ARK portfolio record within the past couple of years?
What is Yassine's credentials? Can't find anything about him.
BTC being absent of counter party risk only applies if you hold it yourself btw. Then you need to be careful enough to not lose it or get it stolen
shipping insurance chart on next one please.
What do you think about Core Scientific? They are coming out of bankruptcy this month. They owed because of FTX and they have reorganized. The stock, CRZWQ, was about $4.5 and it's less than 10 cents. I managed to pick up some for a penny, and they're one of the largest block chain Miners and co-miners in North America.
..maybe a stupid question: if holders keep holding and institutions must purchase in order to setup the ETF's , regardless the impact on the price, where, who or what will be the source of BTC ?
This won't be a huge issue as there's new supply being mined and most of these corporations accumulate over time with DCA. Bitcoin has constant trading and is always switching hands and there is always Bitcoin being sold and bought. Companies will accumulate as needed. If there's greater demand than supply, the price will rise to meet demand for the asset in most economic models. This would cause a squeeze and shifts in the supply chains to match the demand because at every price point there's a certain slope of the amount of investors willing to sell at that margin. If more people want diamonds than there are, the price will increase to a value in which some diamond holders want to sell their supply. It'll switch hands and price will move up in these moments. If you look at a live ledger it'll show that there's ask prices (prices in which supply wants to sell at) and bid prices (where the buyer demand is) the price goes up if there's more buyers to create more supply. This also leads to each fractional part of a coin being worth more and allows for more trading too. Sorry that was a lot just thought I'd help explain the economics to you.
Also going off of that, when transactions are approved on the public ledger by a Bitcoin miner, the blockchain rewards them with more Bitcoin and allows new coin to enter the supply for monitoring the network. This is called proof of work and is the model bitcoin uses. Once enough transactions are verified it'll create a block and each block rewards the ledger 6.25 Bitcoin currently. In April we expect this amount to "halve" which means each block will only reward "ledger watchers" aka the miners half of the old reward to limit new supply and put downward pressure on inflationary affects. This usually follows up with another massive bullrun for crypto because of this.
15:18 the price on this chart is very misleading, bitcoin has fallen and stayed there for sometime now. It falls for 5 years and had an 18 month run and then falls again.
I think your projection is right for the first quarter, i don't see inflation staying down for long, I really don't see it now. The prices are not rising as quickly now but that's not going to last. I can't get my prescription filled because the Kroger truck never has it. 😢 The Houthie rebels are messing up shipping
I'm not sure I understand why interest rates would surprise on the low side accompanied by deflation and a soft landing or mild recession. Wouldn't deflation indicate a hard landing?
How would BTC miners benefit from halving?
💙💙💙 We ❤ Cathie 💙💙💙
💖❤️💙💖❤️💙
cathie is not smart she a genius
And it just goes to show you that even very smart people can't accurately predict the economic future - I watched and waited as Cathy called deflation already 2 years ago. If you call it long enough - of course you'll eventually be right.
QUEEN ❤
I'm just a bit curious about it.
Can you also highlight a few other cryptocurrencies that will change the world?
Hedera.
agree that CW's consistent call for a recession seem a bit 'ok, it's coming according to these charts'...the 'truth' seems more along the lines that we have had a recession in the form of it being a 'rolling' one for the past 12 months...
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤ Thanks from Kigali Rwanda it's been 2years now following your economic Wisdoms and analysis with long sighted visions. Also brain Storm content based on new class assets analysis is well compacted for everyone to learn by heart🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
CW should look at ARK performances since inception and have the decency to get a different job.🤣
#futureofworks
#assets #classes
BTC has very little to do with those macro trends, other than M2, which has been contracting materially. BTC has its own cycles & dynamics, regardless of the banking crisis, etc.
I had a thought when Yassine was showing the Long-Term Holder Supply chart. Little to none of the supply that goes into ETF's will be held long-term. ETF's will more likely be a gateway drug. If someone playing with Bitcoin through an ETF becomes a "convert" they will probably buy and hold the BTC themselves and join the ranks of long term HODLers. Interesting prospect if corporate entities are among those "someones".
The total Public Debt Outstanding / GDP ratio chart has a perfect bull flag.😅
Nice intro. To long for CZcams tho. Still love the Ark channel like candy cane 😊
I loss a lot of money from ARKK since 2022. Why is her investment strategy not working? Is this true that Arkk telling the investor there is no bubble but end up making investors suffer huge losses? Should the manager feel sorry to the investors?
Because your time horizon is too short.
It would help btc s cause if your charts did not contain multiple mistakes...
Ya’ll must love losing money. If you put your money on SP500 or Nasdaq you would’ve gotten way better return than this joker of a company. What a bunch of crooks
SP500 is a Ponzi scheme
How about BTC miners?
Long term holders of bitcoin? Kinda like me. I’m a LTH of Arks. All of them because I’ve lost 40% of my investments in all the arks and I’m holding on to them hoping I’ll at least get my money back. I invested in 2021 when I listened to Cathie saying “We believe” Ark could go 50X! I don’t know anything about investing. I have no clue or strategy. I can only listen to the “experts”. For me, Cathy might be brilliant in the long term but just not today. 😮
Please give me English subtitles..please
To say there is no counter party risk with btc is a little nieve and shows that they don't fully grasp how the network works and affects price. There is lots of counter party risk with over levered mining companies. If they implode after the halving then btc price will fall hasrate has a direct affect on price. Maybe Cathy should ask real miners about these thing instead of institutional miners that are centralizing the network more and more everyday.
I'm not the biggest fan of Cathie's strategy, but nonetheless I think 2024 will be a good year for ARK.
I don't own the ETF's but I invest based on her philosophy.
When unemployment runs out for someone but they still don't have a job, are they still counted as unemployed? The numbers seem to show they are not, and I believe this is how the reported numbers don't tell the real story of how many people are not working and not getting any benefit of full-time employment. And lets not forget all the contractors and gig workers with no benefits and no way to obtain a home loan as well, so the middle class is being stripped of any wealth that can be accumulated. Then there's our healthcare system😒 Wish I had transitioned earlier and harder into Bitcoin for my retirement! At 60 I feel like I can't get enough for my retirement before the price rockets up.
For someone with very little to invest (most of the population), it seems to me Bitcoin is the only hedge against the continued devaluing of the dollar. I hear a lot about diversifying, but for those who have no investments and very little savings, isn't the only real choice Bitcoin or poverty?
Not the only way to invest no, but here's a few ideas for you and others. When you have something you can avoid paying for (coffee) or other financial things like that you can take that money and diversify accordingly to your own risk assessment. Take that $7 daily which most people can afford and you can put 10% into crypto, 50% in stocks and the rest in a risk free asset or bond to hedge risk. If you do that for an entire year every year your principle would be a few hundred by year one with no growth. As time goes a properly allocated portfolio with gains of 5-7% will help you. Now not everyone has money but you can always start small and start somewhere even if you only have a few dollars of disposable income.
BTC is the homeless camp of finance. Ppl always ignore that policy makers can move the camp at anytime.
Not anymore bish
The primary purpose of people buying/mining Bitcoin is to increase their US dollars. I'm sensing a colapse coming larger than anyone could predict.
What about arkx? Arn't you paying atttention. I'm losing 30 percent from 2 years ago.
😂 I think Kathy Wood is vying for Janet “yeller‘s” job for the future. Ha ha ha you go, Kathy.!🌹
Bit-curious? I'm a little bit-furious! #scottpilgrimsaturday
You should look at ARK performances since inception and have the decency to get a different job.🤣
Did FTX sell BTC that did not exist?
Spot ETF approved today!! 🎉🚀
Edit: Never mind.. SEC account was hacked.. 🤡 world
Can someone explain to me how Cathie Wood is still relevant? Her track record vs the S&P is horrific over the last 5 years. Terrible results and higher fees? Explain it to me.
Because she's making long-term predictions rather than doing whatever compulsive gambler stuff you are into....
Hilarious. She charges outrageous fees to lose investor money. I've tripled my returns with a fraction of the risk and volatility. She's collected $300 Million in fees to return nothing. All the suckers that bought in at the peak have been wiped out.
Over the last 3 Years Return (Ann) ARK -27.02% S&P 500 Index 9.64%
Over the last 5 Years Return (Ann) ARK 5.70% S&P 500 Index 15.02% @@archvaldor
How long should she get? The wild volatility of her fund since inception has litererlly destroyed a large percentage of her investors wealth. And for what? Underperformance?
So she asks her investors to take wildly higher risks at higher costs.
She's been the only winner. The ridiculous fees she charges have made her rich...her clients not so much. @@archvaldor
"Something for everyone " is what Cathie says on every single one of these monthly job reports. It means things haven't been changing AKA her predictions are not necessarily coming true. No recession even though she has been predicting it for the past 2 years.
Hard to have a recession with all the money printing happening
@@yehimstone5492 we are not printing anymore though. Matter of fact, interest rates have been increasing for the past year or so (we are currently not increasing but maintaining high rates). High rates should work against inflation and move us towards recession. This is what Cathie is saying however she has been saying it for 2 years and there is no recession in site. The jobs number yesterday had one of the lowest unemployment rates ever. Nothing matches what Cathie is saying. As an investor in Ark funds, this worries me.
Yes - i've been saying the same thing. If she predicts it long enough its going to happen though - its just the cyclic nature of any economy. lol. Predicting economic behavior (with its thousands of variables) is about like predicting the weather - best you can do is throw a super-computer model at it and have some mild success 7-10 days out. A human prediction based on a few financial charts, as history shows, is next to silly. But one things is for sure - they'll be right (by chance) 50% of the time - and that's when they will brag about being correct - crickets the rest of the time.
I will never understand why people invest their money with Cathie Wood. Its crazy.
If your motivation for getting involved in Bitcoin is not "Separation of Money and State" then you don't grok Bitcoin.
Do you all still trust Cathy even after her ARK fund is down bad??
Solana, its development direction is determined from part of swiss foundation/which is influenced from part of executive/ strategic agency of World Economic Forum, "you will own nothing and be happy", no car, no meat, weather warfare with catastrophic event, base on principle, problem solution, cause the problem and gain from solution (eco- laws). Much worse... the are hidden behind worst operations: banks failure, conflicts world wide... two names: Lorenzo Hutter, swiss police/ General Gerard Vernez, former general Cyber Defense, founder Digital Evolution; resposable of uncountable operations
It's been quite a pump. But you know, with crypto, the big question is always when to enter and exit the market to make profits. What are your thoughts on that? I've been holding $250k since 2021 and seen it pump n dump.
Depends on a lot of factors, but based on my own economic background and intense knowledge of crypto, post halving around April or May should peak out and go down for a bit before it'll slow down and rise again. People mark charts though and you can follow those. Watch data dash with Nick it's a CZcams channel and it'll answer your question better than I can in a comment and show you what'll likely happen. Nobody fully knows but he has good ideas on it. 😊
Why? To-other ? 😢
wen eft
Great, looking forward to the recession! juicy
Pepe
I find her nothing more than a mass manipulation of everything she knows
Hedera.
Wasn’t BTC freedom from the traditional finance? Why to celebrate BlackRock, then?
Wth 😂
Rate-talk is BS. M2 is still contracting!
Yes we are finally in deflation now, but come on Cathy, you don't get to claim you saw it when you called it 2 years before it finally occurred. I mean if you call deflation long enough, of course its gonna eventually hit. The Fed called it pretty close to accurate, not you.
nancy lazar, art laffer, ...all Trumpers.
Her connection to laffer has always gave me doubts, snake oil
@@jamesrath7509 me too - she definitely lost me when she brought him on the show
@@jamesrath7509 I agree with that, she doesn't really do herself any favors by continually making references to Laffer. As if his "professional" opinion matters.
Btc to 100k
Cathie, with all due respect, maybe you can wash hair and use conditioner like at the beginning of the day. That'd make you look more charming and smarter, although I know you are smart
Cathie: advocating for Bitcoin than selling it - unserious.
Provocably? And pretty? 🧠🤔
By S&P 500 index and large growth index. All you need.
Cathie Woods's strategy is not going to work!
Oh its definitely gonna work, but when - in 2050? lol
Are you guys bullish on Xrp?
No body's is, don't go near it, your welcome
Don’t let grifters convince you there’s anything that will make it worth buying XRP. You can get better return on a gently used Honda Civic than xrp.
XRP will surge higher this year! 🎉 Don’t forget to take profits 😊
does anyone still listens to this woman ?
I like to see her charts but don't put any stock (pun intended) into her predictions - they are wrong at least 50% of the time
btc is up 160%