An Introduction to Conditional Probability

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  • čas přidán 22. 08. 2024
  • An introduction to conditional probability, pitched at a level appropriate for a typical introductory statistics course. I work through some simple examples in this introductory video, and a I briefly touch on the concept of independence in an example at the end of the video. I work through more examples (some a little harder) in my conditional probability example problems video: • Conditional Probabilit... .

Komentáře • 202

  • @barrowmeoct04
    @barrowmeoct04 Před 4 lety +31

    I failed probability last year and retaking it this year. Your explanation of Pr (A|B) using the Venn diagram is so absurdly logical I am floored. It's 100 times easier to see than trying to use numbers and algebra. I've yet to learn how to understand concepts in this 'different' way.

  • @rafaelant
    @rafaelant Před 6 lety +143

    Believe me, gentleman, you are really good at this!

  • @maestro_100
    @maestro_100 Před rokem +6

    Informal definition + Formal definition + Intuitive explanation of the definition + examples + further insight on future topics=Amazing Video! ...Thanks so much!

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před rokem

      You're very welcome! It's one of my faves.

  • @hemm2333
    @hemm2333 Před rokem +3

    Best explanation ever had. I love when he says, please do me a small favour and don't memorise the formula. That's how every teacher should be ❤

  • @battlecrusecruse9155
    @battlecrusecruse9155 Před 3 lety +8

    someone give this guy a medal. he is clearing my basics, from the past 3-4 years just confused with this topic and has avoided it .have no words for your efforts really thanks a lot for such awesome video

  • @Daniel-to5jd
    @Daniel-to5jd Před 4 lety +23

    the best explanation I've found about this topic so far, thank you man

  • @Andynath100
    @Andynath100 Před 4 lety +5

    Your explanation of conditional probability using the Venn Diagram just blew my mind. So much easier to grasp the topic when you get an intuitive explanation of the topic.

  • @Francois6048
    @Francois6048 Před 4 lety +1

    people like you who put effort in helping others understand things are just great human beings. thanks

  • @bryonthestingily
    @bryonthestingily Před 5 lety +84

    Such high quality content. You have a gift for deepening other human's understanding of this stuff :)

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před 5 lety +23

      Well, I can't ask for a nicer compliment than that! Thanks so much for the very kind words!

    • @tonynikolaos3527
      @tonynikolaos3527 Před 2 lety +2

      @@jbstatistics Indeed, i went through a lot of materiaql on YT- and find your elaborations the most natural, relaxed, intuitive and clear. Kudos! ... and BIG Thanks!

  • @qulummmdov6572
    @qulummmdov6572 Před 5 lety +40

    High Quality content, well explained. You sir have my appreciation!

  • @cheezey3295
    @cheezey3295 Před rokem +1

    Failed my probability test. This is one of the best explanations I've seen on this topic.

  • @veronikav8436
    @veronikav8436 Před 6 lety +2

    I watched lots of video on youtube but no one explains as clear then you, now i got conditional probability:) THANKS men

  • @kousalyadevi5209
    @kousalyadevi5209 Před rokem +2

    Thank you for taking the effort to explain the statistical concepts intuitively!

  • @hareemabdulrauf1746
    @hareemabdulrauf1746 Před 3 lety +1

    this is the best lecture i have ever attended

  • @angela2366
    @angela2366 Před 4 lety +1

    I have struggled and struggled with this and came across your video....wow....I FINALLY have it! Thank you so much!

  • @Kisembobusiness
    @Kisembobusiness Před 3 lety +1

    this is the best explanation of conditional probability ever. I love how the explanation creates a foundation for what independent events are. thank you sir

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před 3 lety +1

      Thank you so much for the very kind words!

  • @exia124578
    @exia124578 Před 6 lety +6

    I'm having to retake Probability and Statistics this semester after dropping it last and seeing you upload has given me new hope for this semester. Thanks for the great videos man!

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před 6 lety +2

      You are very welcome! I'm not sure how many I'll be able to produce and upload this semester, but I'll see what I can do!

  • @foodtips8515
    @foodtips8515 Před rokem +1

    Your explanations are very good. Real life saver

  • @Luke-nh5tu
    @Luke-nh5tu Před 4 lety +2

    This is by far the best explanation I have seen, the visualisation of the notation applied on diagram is really helpful because it tells you the whole story. Thank you (one more subscriber)

  • @sonwabilecira37
    @sonwabilecira37 Před 4 lety

    Hallelujah!
    Thank you. The first video to actually make me understand instead of assuming that the logic of conditional probability is inherent

  • @alvaromiro2931
    @alvaromiro2931 Před 6 lety +7

    Cristal clear. I love concepts stepping on top of formulae!!!

  • @jorgegonzalez-ec5fl
    @jorgegonzalez-ec5fl Před rokem +1

    Amazing explanation!!! I like that you explain the formula and don’t just tell us to memorize it

  • @BatterflyHigh
    @BatterflyHigh Před 5 lety +1

    This is the first time this has ever made sense to me!! Thank you so much!!!!!

  • @cococnk388
    @cococnk388 Před 2 lety +1

    This is what i had at first:
    S= (0,1,10,100)
    A=S1(10,100)
    B=S2(10)
    P(B/A) = P(A n B)/ P(A) = (1/4)/ (2/4)=1/2 =0.5
    What I did above works if an only if they (payouts) do have the same probabilities.... but the probabilities differ according to the payout.
    Thanks alot sir

  • @spicyornot1787
    @spicyornot1787 Před 4 lety

    Made perfect sense. Watched several ones before.. but none made it this clear.

  • @monczokapplehelp
    @monczokapplehelp Před 6 lety +3

    Your are the best statistics channel out there, thank you!
    Could you please do a video about equivalence testing? In a world of data sites getting bigger and bigger good old hypothesis tests are not enough anymore

  • @alexmorton5556
    @alexmorton5556 Před 2 lety +1

    Thank you so much! I finally understand the conditional probability formula.

  • @Rsingh1
    @Rsingh1 Před 6 lety +2

    Out of other videos this is superbest and at the top level because of sooo clear explaination i have imediately subscribed it..... Fabulous... Instead of focusing only on solving Qs through formulae .. Explaination of those is also provided.

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před 6 lety +1

      I'm glad you've found this video helpful!

  • @Cleisthenes2
    @Cleisthenes2 Před rokem +1

    I feel like the probability of me understanding statistics has increased given that I have now watched this video.

  • @Ujamama
    @Ujamama Před 3 lety +3

    Thank you so much for this video! It was really clear and well-explained.

  • @niconetz2008
    @niconetz2008 Před 3 lety

    I'm 20 years old, i've studied this topic like 4 times and i thought that i had understood it. Now I really understand it

  • @onurcam34
    @onurcam34 Před 6 lety +3

    Thanks a lot for these great videos. I'm learning a lot more than I did in college lectures.

  • @sakshichawla8236
    @sakshichawla8236 Před 4 lety +1

    This video helped me understand the answer to the question I was looking in all the videos .... thank you

  • @Joe-km7xi
    @Joe-km7xi Před 3 lety +1

    This is an amazing video, my professor rushed through this in like 2 minutes. Thank you!

  • @roy601912008
    @roy601912008 Před 5 lety +1

    Thank you so much for making this video! I just started learning statistic on Coursera, but the teacher there makes it complicated and way too difficult to understand. And then I found your video! You are a life saver. Keep up the good job!

  • @emporia100
    @emporia100 Před 3 lety

    The best video for introductory conditional probability!

  • @presmompatigilbert5515
    @presmompatigilbert5515 Před 4 lety +1

    I am enjoying this more than I do with my lecture, thank you Sir

  • @zineddine
    @zineddine Před 4 lety +6

    Fantastic! Especially when you said: do me a favour, don’t try to memorize the formula

  • @machinelearning2578
    @machinelearning2578 Před 2 lety

    Most brilliant and super explanation of conditional probability.

  • @predatox1779
    @predatox1779 Před 4 lety +1

    I have a prob and stats quiz tomorrow and this helped me immensely! Thank you very much!

  • @123XTSK
    @123XTSK Před 4 lety

    A High level clarity has been provided....with intuitive values.

  • @siddhantbajpai5889
    @siddhantbajpai5889 Před 4 lety

    The best video on Bayes theorem!
    Kudos to you brother!

  • @Lil-lc2di
    @Lil-lc2di Před 3 lety +3

    Thank you this video really helped! I've already watched several videos on the topic but they just confused me more :'). Really appreciated the diagram around 4:30 personally.

  • @rishabhsharma329
    @rishabhsharma329 Před 3 lety

    Whatta legend. Helping my masters sail through !

  • @ashishprasadverma9428
    @ashishprasadverma9428 Před 2 lety

    thankyou soo much , before this i was never able to understand conditional probab

  • @lynnseto6004
    @lynnseto6004 Před 3 lety +1

    Thank you so much for making this video. It is so helpful!!

  • @user-dc6cm3hl3p
    @user-dc6cm3hl3p Před měsícem

    I wish I could touch the like button under this video 1000 times!

  • @SaadShah1133
    @SaadShah1133 Před rokem +1

    Great video, i hope this helps me in the quiz today

  • @leili1910
    @leili1910 Před 3 lety

    it is the best one i have even see explaining the content thank u !

  • @marcoventura9451
    @marcoventura9451 Před 4 lety

    Good content, good explanation. The calmness of te logic before the formulas.

  • @Shumayal
    @Shumayal Před 6 lety +1

    That special notice at @4:57 is amazing. Here in the Indian education system unfortunately everything is rote based learning :(

  • @cleanestboi5854
    @cleanestboi5854 Před 5 lety

    i like that you promote logic and intuitive understanding, its the best way to be prepared if you have a deep understanding

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před 5 lety

      Thanks for the kind words. This is definitely not a "how to" channel -- I try very hard to help students develop a deep understanding of the concepts.

  • @marcosandoval7260
    @marcosandoval7260 Před 5 lety

    Great Job!. The best statistics channel on CZcams!.

  • @Thobanatif
    @Thobanatif Před 3 lety +1

    If i was able, I would definitely give this person a, "NOBEL PRIZE" 🏆🏆🏆

  • @samsungandandroidguy9796

    Thank God for your channel !

  • @ShadrackKimutai
    @ShadrackKimutai Před 3 lety

    Everything Just Clicked... You are amazing

  • @LK-wv3xv
    @LK-wv3xv Před 4 lety +1

    this is really probably redundant from other videos but you explained what my math teacher tried to do in two weeks

  • @kennenwong7942
    @kennenwong7942 Před rokem

    This is amazing. Thanks for sharing.

  • @sarcastitva
    @sarcastitva Před 5 lety

    Sir, believe me, you are God of statistics.

  • @L2.Lagrange
    @L2.Lagrange Před rokem

    Very helpful statistics videos

  • @shirshak6738
    @shirshak6738 Před 5 lety

    i never swear but u are fucking awesome. I never understood this formula. I watched like 1000 video from making tree to everything. Now i can say i understand this formula. Thanks a lot. If i havent watched this video i wonder how many year i would have struggled

  • @Rsingh1
    @Rsingh1 Před 6 lety +1

    Absolutely clear explanation

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před 6 lety +1

      Thanks!

    • @Rsingh1
      @Rsingh1 Před 6 lety

      jbstatistics is there any video on multiplication theorem of probability

  • @quantabot1165
    @quantabot1165 Před 3 lety

    finally found the right Channel,

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před 3 lety +1

      I've been waiting!

    • @quantabot1165
      @quantabot1165 Před 3 lety

      @@jbstatistics O wow, I thought You dont post videos anymore, I was sad to see your last video 1 year ago I thought maybe he left youtube, Now Im happy cause you are still here, probably you're busy with life thats why no new videos

  • @florentinosanchez3969
    @florentinosanchez3969 Před 5 měsíci

    REALLY NICE VIDEO. THANK YOU SO MUCH!!!!

  • @fannyfan663
    @fannyfan663 Před 3 lety

    So hight quality cours. Thanks alot!

  • @richardadamwais9734
    @richardadamwais9734 Před 3 lety

    who else watch this incredible video in covid19 pandemic that has ruied our daily school

  • @caesaaar
    @caesaaar Před měsícem

    What an absolute God

  • @miguelfonseca1104
    @miguelfonseca1104 Před 4 lety

    you did well, the division part of the conditional probability really threw me off, but the way you explain just made me realize in non-conditional probability, the probability in a sense has a denominator of 1 which signifies "from the whole sample space", when you add given, you must divide to specify its a part of which (partial whole). Thank you. Other videos dont make that clear.

  • @akanksha7474
    @akanksha7474 Před 3 lety

    Awesome video! Thanks

  • @ghadiermatariek8955
    @ghadiermatariek8955 Před 4 lety

    Awesome really, the best tutorial about the topic

  • @kengsamnang7225
    @kengsamnang7225 Před 2 lety

    Thank you for share the videos ..!!

  • @ramniwasswami5554
    @ramniwasswami5554 Před 4 lety

    Very nice vdeos in probability

  • @shis10
    @shis10 Před 4 lety

    Excellent. Very helpful video

  • @spectator5144
    @spectator5144 Před 2 lety

    your videos are really good. great job!

  • @keotshepilemandona9882
    @keotshepilemandona9882 Před 6 lety +2

    when i hear that voice i know that i will be productive......i didnt know that u have videos for conditional probability. i have 3 months strugling

  • @ameerhbaig
    @ameerhbaig Před 3 lety

    Thanks a lot for this video.

  • @ayanlodh6485
    @ayanlodh6485 Před 6 lety +1

    It's a really helpful thank you very much for this video 👍👌

  • @benjaminhowe8825
    @benjaminhowe8825 Před 6 lety +3

    Hey I’ve watched a few of your playlists and am just writing this to ask you a general question. What’s the best way to learn statistics stuff in r? I’m an actuarial student I’ve done statistics but I’m just unsure what the best way to learn r. Any advice would be most appreciated

  • @aditishikha8149
    @aditishikha8149 Před 3 lety

    Great work sir. Keep going👍

  • @mxkep
    @mxkep Před 6 lety

    Great videos. I wish I found your page earlier in the semester.

  • @nethrabhupathi5691
    @nethrabhupathi5691 Před 5 lety

    nice, very precise n clear. helpful video

  • @nafizkarim5191
    @nafizkarim5191 Před 3 lety

    wow best explanation

  • @lovebaking2503
    @lovebaking2503 Před 5 lety

    enjoy this video and with a total understanding!

  • @levonkhojoyan6402
    @levonkhojoyan6402 Před 5 lety +1

    thank you so much,,your videos are very helpful
    ,,,,it would be nice if you create a playlist Probability theory for Machine Learning

  • @vd0321
    @vd0321 Před 4 lety

    Awesome explanation... Thank you

  • @loganbhamidipaty7279
    @loganbhamidipaty7279 Před 3 lety

    This video is amazing!

  • @mridu5685
    @mridu5685 Před 2 lety

    THANK YOU SO MUCH!

  • @rohansodha9555
    @rohansodha9555 Před 2 lety

    Excellent!

  • @MinhHaNguyen05
    @MinhHaNguyen05 Před 2 lety +1

    Hi Jb, great videos like other has joyfully pointed out. I’m a bit confused by the wording of example of rolling a dice at 6:19 tho, would you mind clarifying if you had time please?
    You see the P(A|B) with event A ={1,2,3,4,5,6}, I would interpret it as what is the probability of rolling 1->5 given we have already rolled 3->6. So when the answer is 3/4, which you only took a part that overlap between 2 events, it confuses me a bit.

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před 2 lety +2

      We are given that event B happens. So the number that comes up on the top face is a 3, 4, 5, or 6. That is our reduced sample space, or, in other words, the little universe in which we now reside. So we're sitting in a universe in which the number is a 3, 4, 5, or 6. What is the probability that A occurs if we are in such a universe? Well, there are 4 equally likely possibilities in this universe, and 3 of them (3, 4, and 5) are in A. So P(A|B) = 3/4. (Since A occurs if the number is a 3, 4, or 5, and doesn't occur if the number is a 6. There are no other possibilities.) When we condition on an event, we are taking as a given that it occurs, so our universe reduces down to the universe in which that event occurs.

    • @MinhHaNguyen05
      @MinhHaNguyen05 Před 2 lety

      @@jbstatistics oh gosh, that makes so much sense, and so speedy!. I’m sorry if this bothers you because you have already explained it in the “Intro vid for conditional probability”. Thank you JB, big help!
      P/S: Are you coming up with new videos? If you had a course that teaches statistic somewhere, I would totally support it.

    • @jbstatistics
      @jbstatistics  Před 2 lety +1

      @@MinhHaNguyen05 You're very welcome. I'm always happy to help when someone is trying and can't understand something. Conditional probability can be a little tricky, and there aren't many others that explain it in the fashion I do (there are some, to be sure, but most folks on youtube know just enough to jam things into the formula so you don't typically get this take). The conditional probability formula is just a formalization of the logic used in this example.
      New videos are always part of the plan. Time for new videos is always another story. I'm currently doing a big rewrite of my notes/text and mapping out in my brain what new videos I'd like to make. I'll likely be able to roll new videos out starting in the summer. I don't have an online course anywhere, other than through my university.
      Thanks for the kind words. I'm happy to be of help.

    • @MinhHaNguyen05
      @MinhHaNguyen05 Před 2 lety

      @@jbstatistics you are unbelievably kind! Rooting here to learn more from you, JB!

    • @riahmatic
      @riahmatic Před rokem

      I was confused by this at first as well. Key realization for me was (being rusty on probability) that the event occurs if any of its numbers are rolled, not if all of them are rolled. Doh

  • @dwadwadw8730
    @dwadwadw8730 Před 2 lety

    thank you very mush sir, smart man.

  • @kanacaredes
    @kanacaredes Před 3 lety

    Great video

  • @akhil1067
    @akhil1067 Před rokem

    Well said!

  • @sruti918
    @sruti918 Před 4 lety

    Well Explained! Thanks

  • @consolejehong1258
    @consolejehong1258 Před 5 lety

    ty!! i understand where the formula comes from now!

  • @rowenang6761
    @rowenang6761 Před 4 lety

    thank you so much!!! this is super helpful!!

  • @giovannicarmona1050
    @giovannicarmona1050 Před 5 lety +1

    I Love You

  • @nkasecarter6295
    @nkasecarter6295 Před 4 lety

    Thanks for your video, this is awesome

  • @Lucia-bz3ou
    @Lucia-bz3ou Před 5 lety +3

    God bless you.

  • @coleabrahams9331
    @coleabrahams9331 Před 3 lety +1

    This is magic

  • @samsungandandroidguy9796

    Life saver i tell you.