Why It's So Hard To Predict Where China's Latest Piece Of Space Junk Will Land
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- čas přidán 7. 05. 2021
- According to the simulations the 23 ton core booster for the Long March 5B will likely enter earth's atmosphere and mostly burn up in the next 24 hours, but knowing where and when is still impossible. The prediction window is still 12 hours long leaving a lot of uncertainty as to where it might end up. Most likely it'll end up in the ocean, but there's a 30% chance of it dropping debris on land.
- Věda a technologie
As an Australian I can confirm the wildlife would be more dangerous than skylab, you would see skylab before it attacked you.
Didn't Skylab end up in WA? That would put it right in the region of those huge Emu, but not quite where blue-headed, non-avian assassins, the Cassowary, roam.
@@Markle2k I mean the emu are everywhere. I like to think Skylab was America trying to help us out in the Great Emu War.
@@201bio the great emu war? I'd say it's a joke but Australia being Australia imma look it up anyways ^^"
Edit: wow.. I never knew something like this happened this is crazy!
@@201bio knowning emu they might secretly hacked nasa and changed the shuttle designs so that they could use skylab as a kinetic bomb
Those Drop Bears are stealthy :)
Living in Africa, I can guarantee those pieces are being used somewhere as water pipes or gutters. Love the thought of someone having space grade guttering
That must be the most OP rain gutter.
“Yeah my house is military grade, see this plating?”
Don't they sell some of that back to nasa ?
@@demonprinces17 after all the burning and crashing, I'm pretty sure those pieces are just useless to NASA
I'd not want to be using those pipes depending on what's been following through them
When Skylab landed in Australia, the local authority fined NASA for littering.
Another bald dude on CZcams told me the same thing not more than an hour ago...and he had a pretty honest looking beard so it has to be true.
@@codymoe4986 Tis true. And they still haven’t paid the fine.
@@grogu9814 The other bald guy said it was only around $400 US...
@@grogu9814 That cash would've just burned a hole in the kangaroos' pouches anyhow...
@@grogu9814 they did pay, a radio station got donations to pay for NASA's ticket and it was paid in 2009
Brings back memories of Skylab crashing to Earth back in the '70s. Some jokesters even sold "Skylab repellent." Radio stations took bets on where it would land. Somebody built a giant target on his property. But it landed in Australia instead.
I did have a t-shirt printed at the time that said “Official Skylab Target” 😀
I believe at least one movie about the latter part of the 1970s made references to skylab.
Those "Skylab repellents" performed really well... 😀
NASA still hasn't paid the $180 littering fine. 😁
And ya not gettin it back, cobber!
When the error bars are the size of the entire planet
As a physics student I can relate. "I don't know how to properly propagate errors so I just put error bars on my error bars".
@@Cepheid_ as a software engineer, I just call them "recursive error bars"
Ohhhhhh, Error bars! I thought he said Areo bars. I was wondering why he was mentioning chocolate but I figured it had something to do with the bubbles.
Nope... only 41 north & south. I’m sitting in Canada taking bets on which American city is going to get devastated.
@@CarFreeSegnitz Space X was oh so close for having the Spring of Love in Seattle.
I’ve been to the town ( Esperance on the south coast of WA) where Skylab landed. They have a museum right in the centre of town filled with bit of oxygen tanks and shielding. When the NASA official came to the town for a look he got a big Welcome and a fine of $400(Aussie dollars) for littering as a joke. In the 90s a LA radio DJ found out and managed to get his listeners to help pay the fine as a publicity stunt. It was given to the shire as a oversized check for a laugh. The check is now also in the museum.
DolleryDoos
Except, that's literal bs. They never got a fine. It was a joke. The mayor of Esperance had a phone call with the then US president who apologised (I think Carter). Also, that DJ thing didn't happen in the 90s, but in 2009. And he actually pretty much scammed his listeners, as there was no fine left to be paid. It's a hoax.
Canada is still waiting for the russians to pay for the Cosmos 954 clean-up bill
@@Columbiastargazer The USSR paid the Canadians 3million canadian dollars?
@@PHeMoX It's not a hoax, that's the wrong use of the word because it actually happened. Some details might not be correct, but that's not a hoax
Yep flying straight over Melbourne multiple times. Nice one.... 🤨 I’m old enough to remember Skylab coming down here. My whole family were watching it on the news when this terrible screeching of torn metal sound came from the roof and we all looked at each other in consternation. It turned out it was the cat climbing up there and it was a super frosty night and he’d started sliding uncontrollably down the roof on the ice and was using his claws like a set of crampons on the corrugated iron! 😝
great story
I'm paranoid enough as it is, I hear that while waiting for space debris to fall I'm sprinting for cover. It's unlikely to help, but it feels better than doing nothing lol
🤣 . I enjoyed reading that.
That Fly Safe at the end sounded very suggestive 😂
Might have to walk safe as well 😂
Problem is when things coming down via gravity, you are very much at the mercy of probability.
Thankfully that makes the odds of getting hit astronomically low, but artificial satellites have been exponentially increasing the odds.
It wasnt a suggestion, it was a threat
Fly safe, wear protection!
We don't want any Pregernauts!
Get Jeb on EVA and push it with EVA pack.
I had to do that way too often XD
I can already imagine Jeb's stupid smile as he tries to dock with a several tons object spinning once every 5 seconds
@@ImGonnaShout2000
Time acceleration removes the spin. Might not work IRL.
jeb bush? god that guy is such a dud
Completely agree
That’s the most heavy and meaningful “fly safe” I’ve ever heard
Your profile picture lol
For real though - this is like firing a rifle in random direction in a suburban or semi-rural area. Sure, there’s a high chance that no damage is done, but you could kill someone, and that would be charged as either manslaughter or 3rd degree murder. We should treat this the same way and hold China accountable.
he should of added a 'de-orbit safe' for good measure ...
because he was saying it for china
"Shuttle development is clearly not something to be making predictions about".
Three livestreams to build LEGO Shuttle.😁
That. And a Lego Shuttle does not need working plumbing or electrical systems or life support, never mind flight and attitude controls nor able to survive reentry …
@@advorak8529 For the record, the Lego Shuttle technically has flight and attitude controls...sort of ;)
@@BrentBestwick _technically has_ does equal “working” in which way, again?
I'm placing my bets on this re-entering over the Indian Ocean, South of Sri Lanka by several hundred miles
I don't think the debris will make it to Australia
Oh my god, how did you guess this so perfectly…
@@POTKC I was a bit off. It landed a couple minutes sooner than I predicted
I bet it lands on your house
@@TannerSwizel Well-played!
Spacex should let Scott Manley do the commentary for a launch one time so he can end the live stream with "I'm Scott Manley, fly safe!".
+1 , great idea. Fly safe :)
@@zeenmc It'd be great when the pre-show music fades, you have the spacex logo, and then.
HULLO!
That would be awesome! If I were Musk or Shotwell, I would do that once for the humor of it.
Or NASA's Artemis I. now that would be something!
That is a great idea.
I live in Australia, and the wild life is definitely more dangerous than Skylab falling from the sky.
Was it the event, where a AUS town fined NASA for littering?
@@Gert-DK yes, but if i remember correctly, NASA didn't pay
@@aaaaaa7955 how much was fine
@@aaaaaa7955 And NASA wanted their junk back. IIRC some of the debris was confiscated, however a LOT still ended up in private hands.
The fine was paid by a US radio station called The Highway ($AU400)
Think about it: How many people have been killed by local wildlife? How many have been killed by a falling Skylab? See?
"the odds of it ending up near you are staggeringly small"
Imagine the chances of an engine falling on your head... -- Donnie Darko
It's a mad world.
If it's going to hit someone, their odds are 1:1.
Sounds like something from Northern Exposure.
That would be quite funny. Or would I find it kinda sad?
How convenient that you reference a fictional movie.
till now, there are more than 20 falcon 9 second-stage rockets still circling earth, when will they fall, unknown, where will they hit, unknown. because no one can control a debri. but don't worry, you are safe cause that's fucking america's debri.
Stop trying to save face for the CCP.
You look ridiculous when you write "because no one can control a debri"
@@benghazi4216 fact is not funny， make fun of fact is funny
@@ismeeiger5322 you is not funny
The second stage is made of materials that will melt away as it streaks through the atmosphere. And last I checked, spacex doesn't drop boosters, on American villages and schools, not even bringing up the fact that China has dropped hypergolic stages near populated.
It's spelt “debris”.
“Local wildlife is more dangerous than Skylab could ever be” 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Made me laugh too. :D
NASA were fined...They still haven't paid for littering the outback
@@adamweaver8533 That's fascinating, and depressing. Did it get much coverage in the Oz media?
@@adamweaver8533 A DJ in California (I think) eventually raised the money and paid the ($400?) fine many years later. But yeah, the US government never paid it.
@@lockstockandcarol Sure did.
It's even harder to predict, because as Scott mentions, the stage is tumbling and that varies its resistance and drag to the increasing atmospheric friction.
This is true until the aerodynamic pressure forces the stage into the orientation that has the least amount of drag... assuming it has enough time to do so.
@@the_Backdoor_Siders_Crew Not at all necessary, depending on shape and weight distribution it can (and most likely will) be aerodynamically unstable so the atmospheric drag will only cause it to tumble more. Could even make it spin so fast it would be torn apart, possibly kicking the pieces enough for them to reenter over completely different parts of the globe.
And even if there's a stable orientation it's again not at all necessarily the one with the least drag.
@@the_Backdoor_Siders_Crew Mind you, as it gets deeper into the atmosphere, possibly parts of it will get broken off, which could make it unsymmetrical and start it tumbling.
So, to sum up this little back-and-forth comment thread - no one knows with certainty what it will do nor where it (and maybe it’s pieces) will strike earth. Hmmm, just as Scott stated. Thanks for the summary.
Yes, thats because the stage is LUMPY and the atmosphere is LUMPY as well... 🤪
"The odds of it landing in the ocean are about 70%"
How to make a 2nd grader feel smart.
My favorite achievement was always "Return to Sender."
Lol
F3+B makes hitting the balls feel a lot more consistent, for anyone who finds they can't do it.
If it destroys the launch site that would be nice.
@@tissuepaper9962 I just spam my fists
Is that from halo or from TF2
Breaking News: Space rocket fell on dangerous australian animal, saving man's life.
LOL 👌
ooh yeah, a single rocket crash could take out a LOT of cane toads!
Winner 🏆🏆🏆
Whatch out for drop Bears
@@woodypigeon Nah Aussies love drop bears
You could see that SpaceX second stage breaking up down in southern Oregon and I got to see it while I was on my drive home.
Ironically, Every media focus on Chinese long march 5B landed in Indian ocean.😂😂😂 No reports on Falcon 9 second stage didn't ignite on time.😅😅😅
Stupid anti-science news.
I am a Chinese. . The more similar news, the better.
after all. No one can stop cheating yourself. but. The earth will still operate according to the laws of physics. Deceive yourself. Won't change the world
The more news like this. China's rise will be easier.
Because what the world sees is the performance of the clown group. Just look at the audience. Will not dance with the clown on stage.
@@user-lt6ke9hg8f _Stupid anti-science news_ Then let me help you make this a more science news: the Long March 5 has clearly had uncontrolled reentry of some of its hardware. (Fact)
What would explain that fact?
A) “I do not care, stop bothering me”
B) “we cannot do it, at least not properly”
C) “we can do it but this is part of us playing clowns in yet another disinformation campaign.”
D) … ?
Your choice: inability, apathy, acting like a clown?
All of which spell “losing face” to me, but what could I know, being the target audience of the (alleged) clown show …
As to China’s rise … if it was a *”People's Republic”* not just in name only, they would ask the people. But a government so insecure that no other party can be allowed. If individuals were allowed to vent their unhappiness of some parts of the the executive actual breaking the constitution,
@@MAX-ky2ew Not the first time, their 2nd stage also crash down on Indonesia... some parts land intact and damage an animal enclosure.
Lmao what VPN did you use to type that.
The last sightings of the booster were over Oman, possibly showing effects of atmospheric entry, it's believed to have deorbited over the Indian Ocean near the Maldives.
Comments really show how many people just hate China
@@calfolkionized you mean Occupied West Taiwan? yeah.
Thanks for the update. Good luck to all the countries playing bingo with China.
Thank you so much ,, the longitude meant i don't have to duck and cover, the latitude is verry close , again thank you for the best coverage of things in orbit and the mechanics lessons
@@calfolkionized me no like CCP
When skylab came down I managed to get some photos which ended up in much of the world's newspapers. I remember hearing on the radio that it had already crashed into the Indian Ocean, but never believing the media I went to the foreshore to the tune of "I will survive" by Gloria Gaynor and got the money shots.
Good luck on this one, may you catch another bundle of nice shots :-)
Nice!
Will see if I can repeat that from the other side of Oz.
Did you get paid for them?
@@voongnz Yup. $100 from the local paper and then the agency rep gave me $300 USD. Good money at the time for a starving student.
One of my Uncles was in Esperance when Skylab came down and he got a few pieces and gave them to family members. I lost our piece - a bit of foam insulation - one year but it was the coolest thing ever to me as a space nerd child.
If everyone who thinks they had a piece of skylab actually had a real piece I think the mass would have been enough to cause an extinction level impact.
@@PhilLesh69 it’s like those cheap overpriced pendants I’ve been seeing advertisements for claiming to have moon dust or asteroid bits in them. It’s probably a glass bead with asbestos in them.
AN EXCELLENT VIDEO! - Honestly Scott, I've been watching your videos for ~5 years now, and this is one of the best.
Thank you Scott, good information about the history of such falling space debris events and the details of the physics of this topic. I didn't know about how many times this has happened before.
3:33 As an Australian, I can confirm that statement. Beware the Dropbears.
What, may I ask, is a dropbear?
@@charlesshreeve319 Koalas
Man eating Koalas with bad tempers.
@@mrJety89 Yeah, I just googled it. Predatory, CARNIVOROUS koalas. lmfao!
@@mrJety89 dear god
You nailed it. This is the video people should be finding instead of all this overblown fud. Really well done video.
It's causing a loss of face for Xi Jinping, which is why it's being broadcast so much. It IS a big deal when China has plans to launch many more of these. The rocket also flew over inhabited land in the Philippines . It's just kind of tacky
More people have been killed as the result of Chinese space program than NASA, ESA, JAXA, and Ruscosmos combined. They don’t care about doing things the right, safe way and take shortcuts in addition to not having the expertise of doing many things to begin with.
This is just China wanting to show the world how “superior” they really are and the rest of the world feels the brunt of its failures. You also know that China now produces more greenhouse gases than every 28 developed nations combined even though our population is greater? China is a train wreck that needs to be stopped by international embargo by any nation that cares about climate change, human rights, stopping genocide, and their massive technological theft and cyber warfare and war mongering by stealing and militarizing coral reefs in the Sea of Japan.
@@adamc6371 I don't see how that is a response relevant to what I said. I'm not defending China by any stretch. I think clear, concise, and factual information makes a cogent argument that individuals should not worry in this case about personal danger. Of course on a wider scale, this blase behavior is a major problem for civilization.
@@adamc6371 Typical American POV.
Well said, indeed a great video!
Thanks Scott, I’d seen stuff on TikTok about this but nothing in the mainstream so wasn’t sure what to believe. You make this science stuff real, itchy nose and all!! 👍
“Aimed to impact in the middle of a convenient ocean.”
That implies there are inconvenient oceans, too.
The most convenient ocean is the one antipodal to your perigee, so you can get the most delta-V possible out of it. The Space Shuttle dropped its big orange hydrogen tank in the Indian Ocean because it's on the opposite side of the Earth from Florida.
Somewhere in China Scott just got put on a hit list for dissing their rocket
That list gotta include half the planet at this point.
Like every news station lol
Glad that people have the guts to say it. China needs to be held accountable.
@@termitreter6545 They'll have to put me on it, because they angered me with their insensitivity to the COVID-19 situation in India a few days ago.
@@64BBernard I had to google, but that weibo thing looked like a post that hardly anybody supported, not even by mr Xi "there is no genocide" jiping.
Scott sounds like he isn't mad with the Long March 5B, just disappointed.
The disappointment is so much worse.
I bet you wished to be some anti china video and it didn't happen. 😔
@@user-og6ws6cy5l you went there, not him. sounds like your fishing.
Finally, was waiting for your video on this.
Thanks for the timely video! I herd about this from a main stream news outlet and it lacked details and general information.
NASA still owes us a (joke) fine for littering when Skylab came down 🇦🇺
Didn't NASA pay it?
A radio stationed payed it from memory
I remember that, I thought that they payed that humorous littering fine way back when.
AU should pay NASA for blocking the way hahah
What ever happed to Stan Thornton? He brought a piece to the US newspaper San Francisco Examiner and collected a $10,000 reward, then returned to Australia.
Anyone else remember back when Mir’s projected landing area was released, Taco Bell put a target out in the Pacific for Mir to hit for free tacos?
I wish I was around for that.
Just had my first ever Taco Bell a couple of days ago. I'd have advised them it'd be wise to try to miss the target. ;)
@@memine3704 you take that back!
@@StumpfForFreedom I wish I could Ian. ;)
@@memine3704 You have to prepare properly for taco bell... liquor and redbull or other controlled substances to prepare your body for the shock.
Great content Scott. Thumbs up all the way.
I'll be keeping an eye out tonight in Southwest Florida 👍🌠
The last line sounded like a warning to all space agencies tbh😂😂😂
Actually, it sounded like "Fly sieve" to me. YMMV.
China does it for publicity...
We had a lot of skylab here in town, a local bookshop owner and enthusiast had several pieces on display back in the 1980s I have seen and touched it personally.
that's cool as fuck
Never has Scott’s advice/wishes to “Fly Safe” been more important and applicable.
"The local wildlife was more dangerous than Skylab was" BEST.MANLEY.EVER!
As the booster makes its re-entry:
Australian wildlife - "why do I hear boss music?"
I'm pretty sure they said "Oi! Boss music?"
The crocs "It's not Irwin coming back, is it??"
So you telling me that if I see a bright light in the sky that ain't moving, ain't got no trail, and is getting brighter, I should take a few steps to the side just to be safe?
Go north or south, not west or east ;-)
Because there's a "landing ellipse" which is stretched along the direction of the orbit (roughly from west to east) - and it's the smallesat in the orthogonal direction ;-)
But be fast, very fast ;-)
I saw this yesterday (07/05/2021) in Malaga Spain 🇪🇸 about 6am traveling west to east at a very high speed compared to the ISS, very obviously tumbling from the high rate of very bright flashing. Direction, speed and flashing were very unusual and distinctive 👍
Oh I didn't know that it could be seen from Málaga! So cool (and scary indeed)
Good one Scott!
I'm in Cape Town, South Africa, so thanks for the late warning....
Lol
Great channel boss, keep it up!
Big Wayne
hey scott loved the stare down at the end haha hope all is well from another scottish guy :D love the stuff keep it up
In Australia the wildlife are so dangerous that they do not mind a space station coming swishing down from the sky, even when the Australians can see the space station coming they still keep a lookout for spiders and snakes
The direction that the space station comes down on is called a drop bearing :)
@keith moore - even shoes are dangerous in Australia!?
@@jg374 Buh duhmm
...
...
tish.
@@doncarlodivargas5497
Actually yes, because of the spiders. And there are crocodiles too.
@@andrasbiro3007 - ah! While we love the design of the crocs the spiders love the holes in the crocs, and then there is even crocodiles!? I am sure glad I do not live in Australia
If it lands on my house I'm gonna be pissed.
"Klingons do not allow extraterrestrial debris to fall on their place of residence."
Sell it on eBay
Do not piss off Worf!!
It will probably dislodge a couple of tiles and you get a space souvenir
If it does, let us all hope you are elsewhere!!!!
I worry, because the odds of it ending up near me are staggeringly small
Considering that they actually design flight plans that just drop spent booster stages on their own people we really can't be surprised that they wouldn't bother to have a de-orbit plan for this rocket stage.
Maybe its time to park an Aegis cruiser off the coast and shoot these things down on launch. If they want help doing this safely, I'm sure NASA would be glad to help. But the POS that is the CCP does not give a damn so long as a party member isn't hit.
Utterly fascinating. Space history, old technologies, orbital mechanics. Learned so much in a mere ten minutes.
Wow, this is awesome, my family asked me what's up with China, they heard about it and were terrified and I had no idea what to say, now that I watched this I'm gonna say all of this nerdy stuff and they're going to have no idea what I said. 😃
i feel a bit sad for you and your family^^
Yes that’s how you do it!
Humble
"There's a 70 percent chance it'll break up over the ocean and any fragments that make it down will just splash into the sea. There's a 30 percent chance that some parts of it might fall on land, but only a tiny little chance the land it falls on is *our* land."
Humans suck at rational risk analysis.
Excellent video. Very interesting and worthwhile video.
There was a blast from my past. I remember playing around with STK in the early 2000's
This is like spinning round with closed eyes and throwing a bag of dog poo over your neighbours fence...
Damn it, I knew I shouldn't have left my window open.
Wait a minute
Space grade dog poo
@@scififan698 yeah the expensive type 😂
@@scififan698 flaming space grade dog doo - somebody notify Hollywood!
"I'm Scott Manley.... Fly Safe!"
Long March 5 is clearly ignoring you Scott!!
Because it's Chinese and can't speak English.
He didn't say anything about *landing* safely.
They don’t care about your feeling. Feelings doesn’t exist in space and they have bigger balls than you.
Great info! Thanks!
China's space junk:dangerous and scared
USA space junk: amazing firework.
Solar winds this time of year keep blowing it around…
My winds are more powerful though.
Explain
@@SniperElite0 Funny pun about solar winds being like wind on earth (they are not, that's the joke)
If SolarWinds were involved then someone would have hacked in by now
@@wsketchy oh lmao i didnt get the joke thats why i was confused okay
"rules out Europe" line passes right above Greece,sad noises :(
And Italy. And Spain... so yeah, given that it's most likely to come down right on that line, that's still a big chunk of Europe that can't breathe a sigh of relief...
To be fair, he said that "rules out MOST of Europe", which is true. Still, a 30% chance that it ends up hitting land is unacceptable. As rocket launches become more and more common we'll need to create an international regulatory body for this kind of stuff.
@@arthurvilain7270 ...and when they try and fine China, and China ignores them, what then ?
@@davidioanhedges We de-orbit a fuel tank filled with Chlorine Tri-Flouride directly on Shanghai. Then another one on Beijing. And we keep them coming. We make it seem legit by dropping a couple of empty stages on a few small villages that have been evacuated under Eminent Domain to make it seem that like China, we don't care where these things land.
By 'we' I mean anyone else that is not China. I'm not an American. I don't automatically mean America.
@@jamielonsdale3018 Ayup, because overt belligerence *always* solves a problem. Usually by starting an actual war...
Thanks for the suggestion Scott! The engineers of Chinese space program is very young , around 30 years old on average. They have time to learn and improve and we need good advices like yours, hope we can do it better next time.
Last moth debris from SpaceX’s Falcon 9 fell in a farm in central Washington.
Yes, but in that case at least two systems on the Falcon 9 had to fail first - the other 98.4 percent of Falcon 9 upper stages have de-orbited their boosters safely in the ocean. The Long March 5B doesn't have a retro system at all, so EVERY core that's used to launch a TSS module is going to be left to random chance. Scott mentions the Falcon 9 impact at about 6:23 .
“70% chance of hitting water” still translates to “no bloody idea where it will land”, given the ratio of land to water surface on Earth.
I had this exact thought xD
it's a probability not a prophecy
With Skylab, our Australian government fined NASA $400 AUD for littering... Which to this day is still unpaid.
Like come on it's too little pay already
And yet Australia is still part of the deep space network. Good Aussies!
It's essentially a parking ticket that never got paid. Nasal, you can't park that here!
It HAS been paid. A US radio station paid it to the local council in WA.
Americal go, you are welcome to recycle the parts. Make the $400 back
new intro! :D looks great!
Wonderful explanation, sir. And I love your voice.
I miss the funny human beatbox intro from a while ago following your unfortunate real-life incident. Thanks for the channel!
Explain? What’s the human beat box thing?
@@noneofyourbusiness4133 i think Scott Manley made his intro him beat boxing the usual song he plays
@@noneofyourbusiness4133 look up “how CIA stole a Soviet spacecraft and no one noticed” and watch the intro to his video
What was the unfortunate real life incident?
Leaving the entire core stage in orbit? How very Kerbal of them.
The poor space dolphins D': !
how very china of them lmao
Thanks Scott
"Shuttle development is clearly not something to be making predictions about".Seems to be inherited... *cough* SLS
Scott Manley is a awesome, because he's not just bashing the Chinese rocket debris, but also mentioning older other uncontrolled reentries like Skylab or the Saturn V
Speaking of which, I was wondering why he didn't mention the breakup of the space shuttle Columbia in 2003. Out of respect for the crew? That was a significant mass too. (R.I.P. Columbia crew)
@@scottsmith2483 Yes, I believe much of it fell over Texas and possibly a bit further east as it was heading toward Florida to land. In that case they wanted to avoid souvenir hunters so they could reconstruct as much as possible to determine the cause of the failure. I have heard even in recent years of the odd piece showing up here and there.
So what? That’s like comparing apples to oranges. Scott knows it too. He just doesn’t want to be called out as a racist or something by the woke commie lovers at CZcams and get his channel flagged. Back then those cases were isolated incidents and it was DECADES ago when the tech or understanding of orbital dynamics was relatively new. Flash forward into the 21st century and even the Chinese are fully capable of avoiding these irresponsible uncontrolled massive rocket reentries. They just choose not to because it’s probably less expensive and they can get away with it.
@@scottsmith2483 That wasn't an uncontrolled location in the world, it could only have landed within a very narrow range at that point in the flight.
@@scottsmith2483 Columbia was in a controlled re-entry burn. So NASA would have known, to a fairly high degree of certainty, what the Shuttle's trajectory was. This would then allow them to more accurately project the debris-field.
.
Also, Columbia was aerodynamically designed to do a controlled re-entry and the other isn't. So, the aerodynamics would have been a known quantity (up until the point of break up) which makes plotting the debris much easier. IE it'd be an Apple's : Orange's comparison.
its not that they have a problem its that they just literally dont care
@@spanke2999 Oddly your the one who's calling them "the enemy"....
@@spanke2999 what part of that went so far over your head that you can't understand? Hello. Is anyone in there
@@spanke2999 obviously they don’t care though. So they are dehumanizing the rest of the planet.
@@spanke2999 Dude, China has no qualms about dropping boosters on its own people so what makes you think they care where this one ends up? This is by design, they knew this would happen but couldnt give a fuck.
Skylab was an accident, this, and many other Chinese rocket parts dropping on random areas is not.
@@spanke2999 Dont get me wrong, America has done some really awful things over the years but deliberately dropping boosters on its own citizens in 2021 when a simple solution exists isnt one of them.
They do this routinely knowing full well that the things are highly likely to land on some poor villagers property somewhere downrange.
China dont give a shit about their own people and even less of outsiders.
Scott: "You know if the orbit is elliptical with a significant difference between the perigee and the apogee, then the apogee will descend faster than the low point right?"
Me: "Right."
The reason is that the spacecraft experiences more drag at perigee, the low point so the it won't have enough energy to get back up to the original apogee, thusly the orbit is made less eccentric.
The loss of elevation at one point in the orbit is determined by the loss of energy along the opposite side. At its low point, the craft is traveling through denser atmosphere, and faster, so it experiences more drag than at its high point. And vice versa for the highest point.
At least, until it loses enough speed to drop below orbital velocity, from which point it goes down, down, down.
If you played kerbal space program or watched Scott Manley excellent tutorial videos this actually makes a tonne of sense. It's where Mr. Manley got his start. But I sometimes forget that not all his fans are kerbal space program builders. ;p
I mean its pretty obvious. Are you saying you didn't know that?
I love how he uses”kerbal space programme” to explain orbital mechanics. Such a great game. Also very good video.
I have been waitin for this piece
I like the ominous fly safe at the end. Well documented and delivered!
I like your delivery. A "cool head' like yours SHOULD prevail !
I love the rainbow rocket at the beginning. And your videos of course.
In regards to the atmosphere being lumpy and making the exact landing site hard to predict, I would expect that the upper atmosphere also has tides and some form of surface waves at least partially influenced by whatever weather going on down below.
Scott, I swear you should be some sort of "citizen's ambassador" for space operations. Loved the outro and the content of the video was as informative as ever 👌
Orbital mechanics only LOOK weird if we pretend they are in flat space taking curved paths.
But if we realize they are in curved space taking straight paths, it's less weird... But also more weird.
I like the new lighting.
For the first few minutes I thought it was morning :)
you could say that china is ignoring the most important thing in space flight: fly safe
I can imagine the conversation when they planned this mission.
“Do we know where it will land?”
“Not China.”
“Excellent. Ship it.”
@@TiJayFLY Covid-19 ready for launch.
I mean, when your answer to every hard societal question is "throw generation after generation of human suffering at it" then I wouldn't expect an explosive and ultra heavy piece of trash crashing to Earth to be much of an issue.
The problem is that they have so much of the stuff "Made in China" (that's the New Zealand Health & Safety warning notice!).
@@TiJayFLY
“Will this thing fly?”
“Yes”
“Will it deorbit?”
“Possibly”
“Chances of us going to a gulag for this failure?”
“High.”
about salyut 7. the main body hit the andes mountains. but big pieces fell in at least 4 states. some of them are kept in the "asociacion entrerriana de astronomia" (Entre rios astronomy assosiation)
Also Salyut 7 was heavier than Skylab's S-II stage due to Kosmos 1686 being docked to it, not lighter like Scott said.
That Australia comment made me laugh out loud, despite my 3 kids sleeping already :)
Another great video
Jeez those chunks are still huuuge. I thought they were like small little pieces raining down. I really hope no one gets hurt by this
I find it funny that the media and govt is like it'll probably hit water. Yet Scott just showed us two times (including the last time they did with this rocket) that it hit land... lol
Late night upload Scott!
Early morning up upload Scott!
There were pretty large pieces of Salyut-7 that actually fell to Argentinian territory, they ended up at Capitán Bermudez.
Need a touch of that KSP design implementation where you attach a deorbiting core (or timed / signal based), sepatron, or RCS core section to a stage. I understand that adds a bit, to a significant bit of weight to any design, but like you said, they need to update the launch vehicle, and if that means fabricating in larger tanks or adding additional configurations to assist the spent stage into proper deorbiting burns or trajectories, it needs to be done.
I was told that my odds of winning the lottery are now higher. So I bought a few lottery tickets. I hope I don't get hit by the long march after I win the lottery :-)
Well on the bright side if you do get hit your family will probably get tons of money for the damage.
You're more likely to get struck by lightning than win the lottery.
@@nagualdesign Hope they don't get struck by lightning after getting hit by the long march after picking up their lottery money.
@@incognitoburrito6020 I bet Peter McCathie was hiding in his basement when the Long March rocket passed over Canada! 😊
Fun fact Australia issued a littlering fine for Skylab crashing in the outback.
Funner fact: NASA ended up paying it.
@CMB they did, the Russians had a propaganda field day because of it.
I can remember too well but I remember I used to have a book that even had a clipping of a Russian newspaper without heading the translator to something like "Australia Admit Skylab was a little more than trash."
Reminds me of Grumman sending North American Rockwell a towing fee invoice after Apollo 13.
@@StarkRG NASA never paid off the $400 fine. In 2009, 30 years after Skylab’s reentry, California radio DJ Scott Barley asked listeners to donate money.
Awesome explanation. It obviously came down over the Arabian peninsula earlier this week :)
Mostly desert there.
"I'm Scott Manley. Fly safe." Speaking of safes, as I recall Skylab had a 9,000-pound lead film vault aboard, definitely not something you wanted dropping in on a populated area.
I had a T-shirt back then, labeled:
"Warning: The Surgeon General has determined that falling Skylabs are dangerous to your health."
That phrase was based upon the then-current warning on cigarette packages.
Thanks for the information, Scott, now I can avoid repeating myself when people ask me why they can't predict the landing point, I'll just refer to this video.
Great to see early morning Posts, learning while having breakfast!
Just a small correction: debris from Salyut 7 was found in Argentina and you can even visit some at an observatory in the Entre Ríos Province.
That is correct! There was not a big display that time, only a little propaganda against the comunists dropping their aged hardware, but not the kind of negative comments China is getting now
great talk
It's very easy to predict it won't land in Seattle! Is Scott in Seattle?