Why the UK Got Stuck in A Cycle of Decline
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- čas přidán 22. 07. 2024
- A look at some reasons for low growth in UK for past few months.
00:00 Austerity
01:06 The Truss Moment
2:18 Credit Crunch
4:32 Bank of England
5:23 Low investment
6:13 Brexit
7:46 Labour Market woes
9:18 Labour Plans
10:14 Reasons to be Optimistic
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Britain"s biggest problem is its government. I'm not just talking about the people we elect. I'm also talking about the hidden mass of people we don't elect. Britain's class system means that too often the most incompetent muppets put themselves in charge of government departments, or public projects, simply because they went to Eton, Oxford, or they go to the right golf clubs. They leave Oxford or Cambridge and go straight into responsible jobs with little to no work experience. To make matters worse, Britain is over~regulated with bureaucracy so big projects end up in the hands of our incompetent ruling class. Until we have a ruling class based on merit and not family name, title, or old school tie then we'll always be in trouble
facts
I would rather,much rather be governed by Brussels instead of the entitled from Eton and Oxbridge. Instead of exploiting the colonies they live in a different environment and exploit their fellow Brits .
Been saying that for years. You just need a posh accent and have gone to the right schools to do well in the UK.
I agree with all of this apart from the ‘incompetent muppets’ part. I think they are extremely competent. That is they are extremely competent at taking government money, which belongs to the British public, and giving it to their rich friends. Which is what austerity is. The money is there but instead of spending it on public services they quite literally give it away. They tell us they are balancing the books and as that is what households do we buy into it as it seems familiar. But government budgets aren’t run like household budgets. Austerity is unnecessary and always leads to low growth. But it does allow the rich to steal our money in the background. As for the approx 1.8 trillion pounds of QE since 2008, well you have to ask why we’re broke and the only possible explanation is they have given that away too. Government money is OUR money. The conservatives have given it away. They’ve robbed us. Fun fact: the wealthiest 50 families in Britain have the same wealth and assets as the lower 50% of the population. That’s around 200-250 people with the same wealth as the poorest 33 million people in the country. This happens in a lot of other Western countries too. Which is why in 2023, when ordinary people were struggling, we saw the creation of over a hundred new billionaires. The only person calling it out is Gary Stevenson.
Yep, and yep.
It's certain that this year will bring more challenging challenges. Looking back, I realized that I spent the entire previous year making expensive financial blunders because I was so consumed with worrying about my portfolio. I was forced to decide between raising my investments and purchasing a home. I discovered that the property I had bought needed more work than I had anticipated after deciding to sell my investments. It's becoming more difficult to determine how much longer I can take this.
Take things easy, we've all made mistakes
Invest in companies that provide current cash flows to diversify your portfolio. I hired a planner at the end of 2022 to enhance my portfolio, and in the last ten months, I've made profits in over fifty thousand different marketplaces. Should 2023 teach us anything, it's that luck doesn't last forever. Even in times of abundance, we should put in more effort to prepare for the worst-case scenario.
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
Leah Foster Alderman. You'll undoubtedly find out more if you look her up online.
She appears to be well educated and well read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website, thank you for sharing.
We seem to be stuck in a werid 2005 neoliberalism purgatory. We just can't seem to move on. Even our primeministers appear to be cheap Tony Blair knockoffs!!
I don't think Tony Blair is the real issue here. It seems like you are stuck in the past. Have you completely committed the fact that Cameron and T. May destroyed the country in almost TWO of their half-served mandates? The fact that Brexit happened has got nothing to do with neoliberalism - it's populism !
UK right wing wants to be like the US, except without any international economic leverage or national resources.
who is UK right wing?
The current govt, the Murdoch Press, etc...@@Paul-km9ox
@@Paul-km9ox The Tories for starters they were never left.No housing for many.A NHS on its knees.Doctors underpaid in hospitals.No burseries for nurses.Raw sewage in out rivers companies owned by the US or mainland Europeans.Unfair distribution of wealth.Child poverty.The list is endless.We have no Democratic Socialism in the UK like many Scandinavian Countries.
The UK's current state can be attributed to several key factors:
Decades of mismanagement by successive governments: Both Conservative and Labour administrations have made short-sighted decisions prioritizing short-term political gains over long-term national interests.
Austerity measures: Severe budget cuts implemented after the 2008 financial crisis have gutted public services and infrastructure.
Brexit: The decision to leave the EU has caused significant economic disruption, trade complications, and political instability.
Wealth inequality: A system that increasingly favours the rich has led to a widening gap between the wealthy and the rest of the population.
Outdated economic model: The UK's reliance on financial services and a service-based economy has left it vulnerable to global economic shifts.
Lack of investment in education and skills: Failure to adequately prepare the workforce for changing job markets has led to skills shortages and unemployment.
Housing market failures: Decades of underbuilding and treating housing as an investment rather than a basic need have created a severe housing crisis.
Political short-termism: Politicians focusing on election cycles rather than long-term planning have led to inconsistent policies and lack of strategic vision.
Media influence: Sensationalist media has contributed to social divisions and misinformation.
Loss of industrial base: The decline of manufacturing has left many regions economically depressed.
Resistance to change: An inability to adapt quickly to global economic and technological changes has left the UK lagging behind in key areas.
These factors have combined to create a perfect storm of social, economic, and political challenges that have significantly impacted the quality of life for many UK residents.
It's bizarre that people think you can grow through austerity. You're literally strangling private sector finances when the gov taxes more than it spends
Yes but government spending had to be reined in after it went out of control under Labour.
Austerity is reducing government spending. It is the opposite of strangling the people with high taxes. Those that complain loudly about trying to balance the books and reduce debt are usually those that are only interested in a hand out and more "free stuff" at taxpayers expense
@@xtc2v private sector growth goes down when public spending goes down.
@@indomitus9100 What you are trying to get here is the equivalent of perpetual motion. No country that spends more than it earns has ever got free of its international debt obligation by shuffling money around in a circle. We need profit coming in from outside the country. That means exports, tourism invisibles, student fees etc. Also government tightening their belt so we have a surplus at the end of the financial year to pay off some of our massive debts. If instead you want a financial crash so as to offer Marxism as the solution be honest and say so
@@VincentRE79 Austerity failed at saving the government money, it has been costly financially and in real terms
Another great video. As an American, appreciate your style of getting to the facts/cutting to the chase as we say, supporting statements with data....and avoiding unnecessary graphics, music etc. Curious to get your views on some of the Asian economies...Thank you.
The "free" QE money is now costing over £40 billion . Over £11 billion to compensate for dropped price ,BoE held, Gilts and £30 Billion paid to the banks on their QE money deposits. In other words anyone who bought or held a house from 2010 to 2022 gained at the expense of a later generation who not only had to pay a lot more for their, QE influenced, house prices but also pay with much more expensive interest rates.Triple lock is completely nothing compared with this.
We currently pay £37 billion a year interest on the £700 billion QE lodged by the banks at the BoE.
@@stephfoxwell4620 outrageous. We paid over £40 billion over and above this to rescue the banks,RBS,Lloyds, from their incompetence and now pay them interest on the money which helped them survive.A completely screwed up and corrupt system.
I was here when it said doop-loom
It still says 'doop-loom' :D
This was recommended to me yesterday. I saw the mistake and scrolled past it. It was recommended to me again today; I saw the mistake was still there and thought "hmm standing on business, I'll watch 🤔"
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I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommend Mr Brian Nelson. I met him at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
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The question is does the UK really want to boost growth by boosting industry, thats what Brexit was supposed to achieve, if you have strong industry then you have a stringer capacity utilisation gap for deficit spending.
But do politicians that pander to globalism really want a rebirth of industry in Britain...
Wondered what you thought about the effects of wealth to income ratios, and trends in public wealth vs private wealth
Literally only here for the phrase doop-loom.
I DO NOT believe it is CONSUMERS!!!! who are saving more. It is NOT CONSUMERS. No way. it is the very rich, who own assets. Those are not your average consumers!!!!!
The tax base in U.K. is very narrow. These people will leave as they keep getting hit.
If by 'these' you mean the super rich 5% who hoard assets, pay little to no tax via loopholes and are generally a drag / negative drain on the UK economy. Then good, f em.
Who're these people who're going to leave?
Me I left. 😊
@@adiintel1haha same
Love this honest review without finger pointing and blame shifting.
The UK is a second world country - it's just that most don't realise it.
yet
And that's the trick!
I don't understand how India considered a third world country is second on the list of total investment as a % of GDP, and look at where the UK is.
This is great analysis, thanks!
I think the Lizz Truss bond market crash is a red herring, an excuse. Why? Just look at the US/EU bond markets - the 5Y, 10Y & 30Y yields for other major nations were spiking at the same time as the UK bond market!
It's no coincidence that Central Banks were engaged in heavy tightening to combat rampant inflation at that time. The peak of the UK bond market "crash" coincided with the dollar index turning around too. 🤨 I think Liz Truss was a scapegoat for the woes of pension funds.
If the UK government has no money,the USA government has no money then who has got the money,???
Private individuals and companies unfortunately 😔
@@amrizzle Well the Politicians must be even thicker than I ever thought.
Wealthy European nations and efficiently run new middle class nations .
Deregulate, ditch the net zero garbage, and give companies a reason to invest in the UK.
Another great video. Thanks a lot.
Countries that borrow in their own currency cant go bankrupt
Yes, but if the markets don't like the risks they will demand more interest, and if/where inflation is about markets may eventually seek an alternative currency. Basically it's a slippery slope and if you are a creditor nation you have to expect paying the interest in real terms how ever it can be organised. Argentina hasn't gone bankrupt as such, but many will disagree and say it's been there many times. Is this semantics or economics ?
@@terencemacsweeney3667 No, the market cannot overrule a sovereign government when it comes to interest rates. If they could, Japan would not have an interest rate around 0% given then their massive 250% debt to gdp ratio. We also would've seen much higher rates in countries like the US and Uk after 2008. The only risk is to exchange rates, but those moves are short lived and can easily be managed by a committed government. Argentina is in a different boat because it borrows heavily in foreign currencies, unlike the UK, US or Japan so default is a real risk for them
@@grimaffiliations3671
You think what Japan has done has no long-term consequences 😂😂 the naivety.... Things can play out over decades before s*** hits the fan
@@penderyn8794 more goal post moving. Bold predictions about their demise have failed miserably so now we've moved on to vague predictions about something going wrong in the future. Quite amusing
@@grimaffiliations3671Japan is an economic case study; their economy has been stagnant for a couple of decades. They lurched to the right implementing protectionist and anti-immigration policies. They're now an ailing aged population with desperate need for positive net migration and foreign investment.
Their past successes of building giant multi national businesses can't sustain the economy forever. Another financial shock and generation of widening inequality could accelerate the decline to point its unrecoverable.
Is this what you want for the UK?
Same problems in Ireland. I suspect it's similar across the western world.
How how how can you get investment in productive capacity and increase exports in the UK ? 🤔🤔🤔
....whereto??
We seem to spend a lot on Tax, however, how effiecient is that tax put to work, and how efficient are our public institutions, these, I think are areas that the UK should focus on in a post industialised economy. Additionally can we not diversify our industry away from finance/service sectors to something else? Also what about alternative forms of energy, is it too crazy to consider nuclear power stations or coal power stations given the energy crisis we had? Between the bad planning laws in the country, lack of govt investment in repurposing existing buildings and general lack of coherent strategy by any poicitical party, I would be surprised anything is going to change soon. The decline has been visually evident over the last decade or so, and we don't seem to have learned that quantitive easing is bad and selling off our assets is also bad and that you need to make something people want to make money/capital.
The UK is taxed comparably to other developed countries and it's not even the most taxed country in the world.
Because they banned all cheap energy inputs to the economy, and the economy is a heat engine.
Ask Shylock that ruined you to lend you money.
Shylock will take your pants off.
I think you call Shylock the "Bank of England".
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
The gov needs to invest public money in publicly built homes. This could be done via gov loans and be administered through bodies like housing associations. Leaving housing purely to the private sector has already proved of limited value in boosting housing numbers to proper levels. Investing gov money to build houses is surely a long term tangible benefit to the country the same as building railways, roads and energy infrastructure. As you have mentioned it all depends on planning reform.
I wouldn't trust housing associations I have a shared ownership and they have just abused the system from a overpriced house for the market to ever increasing rents for literally doing nothing.
only hope i see is if the UK gets a better trade deal with the EU and when interest rates drop spend like crazy on investments.
....gets..... , just....gets...... 🤡🤡🤡
Good luck!
The European Union is protectionist, as is the US.
Well I think the UK is doing better then the way people feel, even if wages have not kept up, housing cost issues there is probably a gap between sentiment and actual real financial standing of the people at least the middle class. You see the seme issues in Canada, US and Australia, the impact of inflation requires adjusting spending on a personal level and that can be hard in a consumer and services society.
The UK after a few years of higher rates, lower consumer spending, should have enough gap to bounce back in the coming years but it could be that much better if some actions were taken today.
Anyway, I just think the UK will bounce back as rates are lowered in the next few years to come but the UK has a large engine of growth that is held back on a number of fronts. Lack of industrial policy, over regulations, lack of high earning wages outside of a few cities. The company I work for has an office in UK, but of course it is in London, why does it always have to be in London? I hear the workers complain of the high cost of living, why not offer incentive to have companies re-locate their UK office to a lower cost city, allowing injection of higher wage workers and the services they consume to less wealthy cities. For example the company I work for has an office in the city of Reno Nevada which is not a wealthy city by any means but the workers that move to the city boost the local economy and in return get to enjoy a low cost of living while still making very good income levels, buying them more purchasing power and much lower cost of living.
You can't have austerity in a decade long deficit and government debt nearly tripling.
A doop loom?
You mean doom loop?
Cool band name
The UK is just a Loom that makes Doop!
More like ‘Dupe loop’
or a doom poop
@@qweqwe9678 dope lupe
Importing huge numbers of low skilled immigrants does not help the economy. Some will thrive and prosper. Many more are a drain on Government finances as they subsist on benefits and have dependents who will never work. Labour shortages are mostly in low wage jobs and whilst some vacancies may be filled many workers will need to claim benefits such as Universal Credit to help with accommodation costs.
What is a Doop Loom?
Very rare American carpet weaving method with links to the doo-wop music genre. The weavers made the carpet in time to that music.
*Doom-Loop Not 'doop-loom' Ha ha! :D
It’s too late… the UK is a “lost cause”… I’ve left 🖕🖕🖕
😂 Same as me, 10 years ago now.
To where if you don't mind?
@@vldgrs NZ… I’ve been here for around 2 years
Western Australia for me.
Moving to Malaysia next week. Good business in Asia region and can live like a king for 500 quid a month.
It was a decade for asset holders and Austerity for the rest 😂.
The U.k has already secured further decades of austerity .
I pity those not in the top 10% salary range.
yeah the US givt can borrow the $s it needs from the private sector , because the US fed which is part of the US govt cannot create $s?!?!
make it make sense?!
Borrowing is issuing liabilities
it isnt borrowing as in borrowing from someone
the US govt issues liabilities (Bonds)
The Fed issues its liabilities (new Reserves) in which the comercial banks then use to purchase the Bonds.
All govt money , just different liquidity
Its not that hard , its just legislation
Go ask Singapore how they did it? Sneding 45% of gdp.like uk is not ok
Poor management!!!!!!
09:50 US is better than UK but only because of a few tech companies and fiscal deficit spending by the us government. Most new jobs were in the public sector.
Doom-Loop not Doop-Loom XD
If people's incomes are all going to filling the pockets of landlords, then of course people will not have money to spend resulting in economic decline.
1990-2008 Labour problems not mentioned
Awesome. Labour party landslide victory. But deficit £120 billion pounds borrowed PSBR.
I notice how he slipped in low productivity growth in the public sector (saying it was “particularly bad”) in the last 10 seconds. I don’t believe I have heard him mention it in any of the other videos.
Measuring productivity in the public sector is particularly complex and difficult, so it was convenient for him to slip it in at the end, without elaborating.
For many years it was measured as output = input, and for around 50% of the sector it is still measured this way.
May be he could create a video on it?
Uk pig iron was 9.7 million tonnes in 2014; now it is 4.8 million. I don't care how much MM theorists try to dress it up, lower industrial output figures are never good
I understand that the myth of the "health care workers" shortage is being debunked as the medical school graduates and season doctors are beginnig to speak out. It is, in fact, the shortage of funding from the government for those positions, as doctors struggle to find jobs.
Too funny. Did not anybody notice that not so great Britain no longer has colonies to rip off. DOHHHHHH
Nothing to do with stopping pension companies investing int he uk by getting rid of the tax benefit to the pension companies then? At a time when the uk economy was doing well.
Seems that all this channel does is point the finger at conservatives and say it’s all their fault. Conveniently forgetting the ineptitude of the last Labour government making growth on unattainable borrowing via un regulated fractional reserve lending.
The credit crunch hit the uk economy hard because of the policies of Labour. They also amplified the house price to wages gap.
Gordon brown also failed to do anything about getting the finance industry to pay back the billions they were bailed out.
Austerity was necessary to give confidence to public borrowing but Brexit stopped the uk changing tack and starting to invest with the low rate of borrowing.
Your highlight of the US economy is laughable given their 33 trillion debt pile they are pushing up daily. It’s easy to create growth with borrowing but not so easy to create it through well targeted investment funded by targeted borrowing. You also fail to mention the vast amount of money printing the US did creating the cost of living problem.
Time to move to the us?
2:50 Are those figures in real terms? Are they per capita?
3:18 So, US has moved away from neoliberalism back towards Keynesianism, but UK has not.
4:17 A useful figure would be home square metres per person.
12:14 Productivity in what is left of the public sector is difficult to improve - it is dependent on people, and cannot be improved drastically by technology - the only way of improving productivity is to reduce public sector wages - the standard Tory approach.
Since Thatcher the government has adopted a hands-off approach, except where it would benefit London and the sarfeast. The North was shafted. Not everybody is going to get a I or IIi in Maths and go into the financial services industry (I escaped just before the _Big Bang_ ), and governments have assumed that those in the North are net negative contributors to the economy.
We must throw out this religion of Hayek, and return to pragmatic economics.
Important aspect of #2 is that no one wants neoliberalism anymore (hence Truss disintegrating). Bidenomics is classic Keynesian; Trumpinomics is statist corporatism and by no means neoliberal. Labour voters want the former and Reform UK voters want the latter.
@@indomitus9100 It is a demonstrably failed economic model, yet the Tories and many others want to keep trying it.
While the parties busy at distributing investment money to public service, tax everyone on highest level, heavily punish hardworking and entrepreneurship, what do you expect?
what investment money
doop-loom.
Britain got rich when they industrialized. Then they decided to go socialist and deindustrialize. What's hard to understand?
UK could totally do fracking
This country is cooked
Low productivity since 2009 🤔 there was simbolic wage growth since then and workers simply adjusted performance to their pay and they still doing it. It is still make more sense to skip day at work and get paid in universal credit than work overtime and be punished at least 30% tax deduction for doing so. Government set's minimum wage rates so absolutely minimal amount of income to live of and than tax it 😂 Benefits are tax free. Staying at home saves money on commuting...
You don't get paid in universal credit If you're employed and skip a day at work. Also, universal credit is very much tested.
Manufacturing began to decline in the late 1950's and not the 1980's as you claim
doop-loom... or doom-loop?
Just increase taxes
We have enough stealth taxes, thank you👍
Yes on everybody except me.ha ha.
Most of the tax burden shifts to the working class, not the ruling class.
Why on earth did you vote for Brexit and that Farage guy will be voted in, have you not learned UK?
How people think there has been austerity when taxes are the highest in 70 years baffles me ! The lack of investment in the UK is because its very difficult to get a decent return for your investment. Very high Taxes on business has decimated the High Streets, we have the highest business rates in Europe. 80 Pubs a week are closing but we have the highest Beer Tax in Europe, Buy to Let business has collapsed because of high taxes and stupid regulations. We also have the highest energy Tax rates in Europe. Nobody is going to invest in the current UK and it will no doubt get worse with Labour. Brexit has nothing to do with this, the Country has been in serious decline since 2000. We are of course not alone Germany, France and Spain are all in serious decline too, Oh wait, just maybe, the problem is the bureaucratic, anti business EU ?
Austerity refers to public spending, not tax collection.
@@barbthegreat586 I am aware of that but the money Governments squander come from taxes, or in Labours case the money tree at the bottom of the garden
First like
Le Pen on 37% in France by the latest polls. Goodbye EU. 😂😂😂😂😂
I thought the EU has already collapsed? Because I was told by the Brexiteers that it'd collapse a week after Brexit.
@@barbthegreat586 Process is a bit slow but DEFINITELY happening!
I'd put firm money that Le Pen will be a carbon copy of Melloni in Italy. All promise, no action.
@@klawlor3659Of course, many of the things they promise, they can't deliver unless they openly establish fascist dictatorship.
All is well say everybody All is well , Say Loudly All is Well 😂
Why would migrants increase if GBP pp fell GDP2,300 pa .....can you see that you talk absolute nonsense .....
Vote out the right wing
I blame Brexit, lol.
How's it going across the EU?😅
The caveat though & with Liebour coming to power, this should decimate the housing market quite nicely!
Yes this economist blames everything partly on Brexit while the EU is in turmoil.
If you remember no other thing today, remember these facts: 1. UK dramatically benefitted from EU membership and lost that benefit; 2. other EU countries have different degrees of economic dependencies with the EU, but all would also be worse off overall if they dropped their EU membership. 3. even if UK is growing more than some EU country in 2024, #1 and #2 are still true.
@@indomitus9100 Thank you & nicely summed up but moving forward for the Uk, the decision was made within our shores & will have to beat our own path.
I take no pleasure in seeing the demise to our friends & neighbours, and only time will tell if we made the "correct decision" to leave the club but I have huge reservations to the political club surviving the wave of instability going on right now.
Thank you again, for a well constructed reply.
Nothing is written in stone the EU could collapse in its present form its seems unfair that a country like Latvia with just over a 1 millon pop could veto Germany on some policy the Eu might become a more looser trading organisation poss with the eurozone reverting back to their old currencies also there is a change in the older eu with the rise of the far right nationalistic partys if a looser eu developes the uk could be quite welcomed back again anyway see how things develope in the next 5 years
Please stop going on about the EU.. you're becoming annoying
It is relevant information.
Please keep going on s out the EU. Weare just better then you and you’re not coming back in ever again .
Socialism
Because you soon run out of other people's money
@Badger8200 they can always create more money QE 😅
I'm tired of the constant bashing of immigrants. It would burst these nativists ignorant bubble if immigration was shut down for 5 years. They will soon see like Brexit that hanging decades of mismanagement on one thing is just plain dumb.
THERE
WAS
NO
AUSTERITY
There was deep austerity. The austerity itself cost more than if it was not implemented. How ironic.
There was no austerity. The spending plans for conservative and labour manifestos for 2010 were identical. Public spending rose every year since 2010. Councils kept spending like it was still 2006 though
If you're a young man my best advice for you is to work under the table save up your money do not invest in this country and get yourself out of the country because the system you are living under is an extortion racket