Can Ukraine ever definitively win this war? | Julia Ioffe
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 19. 05. 2022
- Julia Ioffe is a Russian-born American journalist. Her articles have appeared in The Washington Post, The New York Times, The New Yorker, Foreign Policy, Forbes, Bloomberg Businessweek, The New Republic, Politico, and The Atlantic.
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Can you correct your text, its Julia Ioffe, not Loffe.....I for India not L for Lima. Thank you.
My gosh. Didn't know that but you are a go to resource! Thanks.
OH, oh. Tried that..got Tune in followed by a raft of commercials. I'd pay you if I could just listen without all the fanfare like I do on youtube.
Pretty much everything Julia Ioffe has surmised on in the last decade regarding Putin and Russian affairs has become true, I always pay attention to what she says.
Yeah, like her predictions in Stephen Colbert. They aged like milk.
Our (Finland) Moscow ambassador told (according to a newspaper article I read a couple of days ago) the Russians late last year and in early this year that Finland is likely to seek NATO membership if Russia attacks Ukraine, so the Russians knew the possibility well in advance. It's just interesting that everybody assumes that it came as a surprise to them.
Same with the sanctions or having dead soldiers and old equipment. Putin seems to be getting rid of the old stuff to bring in a new era for his country.
Always a pleasure to listen to Julia Ioffe
Speaking about Russia they today claimed to be very upset over the fact that Sweden did not have a referendum to decide if to apply for Nato membership. To bad they - the russians that is - did not have a referendum if to attack Ukraine or not. We swedes would have voted yes to Nato but I have the feeling that the russians would have voted no to the Ukraine insanity. Good for them and good for us.
Thanks to your country for joining NATO. It's not always a prefect union but our goals are similar. It's only recently that Swedish language fell out of favor among the citizens of my town. Immigrants that helped settle America. So you have a lot of support for your country in the U.S.
@@DennisMathias Thank You Dennis and we can feel the support and believe me when I say that we are grateful for the US role . By the way and whereabouts are You in the US? Minnesota maybe?
@@brettsinclair3550 Nebraska. We have a couple of Swedish towns settled by immigrants about 3 generations ago including Swedeburg and Holdrege. Also, Stromsburg, Oakland, Pender, Wakefield, and Wausa. Other significant Swedish populations in Nebraska included Mead and Malmo. And Omaha has substantial Swedish population. So yea, we're thick with them!
Kind of fading culture wise and language and with COVID they cancelled the Swedish Days parades which were always popular.
@@DennisMathias That is really something. I guess they often liked to settle in the countryside and many were farmers back in Sweden of course. Life sure has changed since then and sometimes I have the feeling that we need some hardship of the old times. Where did the Swedish Days parades take place?
There is actually a lesson on immigration in the Scandinavian settlements in the US. Danes Norwegians and Swedes had generally the same background and are all amongst the etnic groups doing best. However, of the three the Danes are the most successful generally. And the only difference between the groups were that while the Danish immigrants spread out and did not settle together, Swedes and Norwegians did.
Something to think about for immigration politics of today.
Hope we get the full video with the questions to accompany her answers later. Also, her last name begins with the letter "I" (pronounced eye), not "L". Otherwise, always good to hear from Julia Ioffe on all things Russia and Putin.
Thanks
For real. Just put the whole video on CZcams.
I've heard it pronounced YOFF-ee
I love listening to this woman, very smart
Wish Ukraine every success đ
I wish Putin's cancer success.
INCREDIBLY smart Lady. She absolutely NAILS the issues and tells it like it really is!
Your idea of smart is something. If you define this incoherence as smart I wonder what you would say when you come across real smart people
Few months after Thermopylae, the Greeks fighting for their freedom, defeated Persian invaders at Salamis and Plataea. Few month after Mariupol, the Ukrainians will defeat Russian invaders.
Sorry I Didn't Go To Public School! Saw That Film About 300 Spartans Getting To Be Dead Heroes! Is That Connected In Any Way?
đđ
@@jasminebali8068 yes. The Greeks gave their alphabet to the Russians.
Ukrainians have been struggling to free their country since the end of WW I. It will never be conquered by Russia. Russia will always be looking over it's shoulder, wondering and worrying when Ukraine will strike back. It is never good to invade your neighbor and make an enemy out of them!
@Raving Loony man , it's Ukraine war for it not becoming Nato war , Nato is not in but believe me they are 100% behind!
While I don't disagree with her analysis that this could last much longer, I have to say numerous experts have been a complete joke prior to this stage of the war. The numerous predictions that were reported with absolute certainty demonstrate how poorly so many scholars understood Russia's military capabilities. They are now trying to claw back some respectability.
Good Luck With The Claw Back!
I agree with you. The Russians will be able to hammer away for awhile, but even if they initiate mass mobilization, those new troops will be more poorly trained and more poorly equipped than the current lot. Russia needs these new Wagner (Russian) transfers from the Syrian theater to make the difference, otherwise, there are no effective cards to play. The density of soldiers around the salient is quite high, but elsewhere the lines are thinly held. This situation is not conducive to turning into a static war over the long term.
I am saddened for the average Russian, who has experienced some prosperity over the years, only to find that dictatorship is back, the Soviet Union is back, the state oppression against free thought or expression is back, and perhaps even the old lifestyle as well. All just to make one man richer.
don't feel too sorry for them. Ukrainians are actually dying
'All just to make one man richer' - simplistic and trite.
@@stuartwray6175 Simplistic and *true.*
_Fixed that for you!_
@@jansix4287 trite
well they choose dictatorship 20 years ago.
Julia really knows what she is talking about .. always interesting.
SHE Might! Sadly The Rest Of Us Are None The Wiser After Watching This!
Dear Julia, I always enjoy your clever insights into Putin's behaviour and your eloquence. I wish I could hear your interviews in Russian though, but I understand that your audience is mostly English speakers. I am afraid that our former motherland is lost for a long long time. You and I are both lucky to be able to live in a safe environment. Putin clearly wishes to make it less so.
Putrin has made his population impotent, just like his army. He must rent criminal operatives to fight. And like criminals do, they will find ways of doubling and tripling their fees.
There's a lot of 'ifs, buts and maybes' and one really big 'if' is that if Putin gets knocked out of the picture via a coup d'etat, assassination or whatever. That would be the ultimate game changer, depending on who took over of course.
Whoâs to say someone worse doesnât take over? There was probably more likely to be a coup if Putin didnât go to war rather than did.
OR Joe Biden Shuffles Off This Mortal Coil First! MORE LIKELY!
The problem is that it's a whole system that holds up Putin as its head figure. There's just going to be another kind of Putin taking over from his circle of people I guess.
Yes but you can't base your defense on a coup. Fine if it happens but Russia has the capacity to draw this out and indeed may intend to now. They'll regroup and they will find a way even if it takes years - especially if it takes years I'd say.
@@ThePaulv12 It will be much easier to frag Putin's successor, and his successor, ad infinitum!
I really appreciated the (hidden) interviewer on this Times Radio video; please do more like it. Ukraine's stated goal is now to get all territory back, including Crimea. Ukraine is just willing to consider ceasefire if Russia pulls back to February lines. There may be a prolonged conflict once the 'ceasefire' is established, but hopefully the West will hold sanctions until Russia pulls out of Crimea. It breaks my heart to see what the Ukraine war is doing to Ukrainians, but it is having the effect of pulling America together.
â€ïžUkrainian đŹđȘ
Stay safe, Sakartvelo
The Virtue Signalling Never Ends!
We Love You Ukraine, not because we are "virtuous" but because we support people who put in real effort, against the odds, against rotten aggressors who threaten peace, freedom, and justice.
Very informative, as always
By the way, I have really appreciated your interviews and perspective. Very inciteful and informative!
Such a beauty, can't stop looking at her.
Julia is so beautiful
It is good to hear Julia Ioffe bring up how Putin uses food and refugees to sow chaos. But another important aspect of this kind of attack is that it is complemented with support for divisive propaganda, primarily by the Far Right, that heightens the domestic reaction to support more extreme politics, even to the point of violence. I think this helps explain how even minor or non-existent social problems can morph into the intractable.
And that Far Right - in the US and in Europe - has been supported by Putin for many years. If we are lucky that support will go away with him.
The Economist reported in his he used Syrian refugees to undermine Merkle, and he generated propaganda that refugees were assaulting English women
so clear analysis, easy to understand, I appreciate this voice most
she is gorgeous
Lying in the face of what's really happening on the ground seems to be quite difficult. Tell what really happens to one's coherence when one tries to present a certain narrative contrary to the situation on the ground. Does the brain choke or something?
The Western mainstream media has to pump out the same narrative to boost the Western morale, and it's the same as the other side. In a war, morale is key, so each side will do their best to disseminate whatever is needed to win.
At least the frontlines don't lie. Just look at the map to see that it's Russia gaining ground. That's why the Western morale needs its boost, in the hope to take back the lost territories from Russia. I'm afraid the ship has sailed, but there is always hope.
Thank you for your valuable information!
Just saying something for the sake of broadcast.
Julia đđđ
These people lying with straight hard face, she speaks like she is inside the Russian military or even in the Russian planing. The irony is these people still apart of their close friends no one else take them seriously.
Brilliant and beautiful
This has to happen: Russian rail and power facilities will be attacked.
Good idea ph. They certainly deserve to lose their power, and the rail also.
Possibly throw in a few of those ridiculous looking buildings with the colourful twirly tops on them.
No, we don't need to invade Russia and Ukraine doesn't either. They need to secure their borders pre 2008.
Hopefully Putin meets his maker sooner than later !
That Old Devil?
Apparently the maker is denying any responsibility, saying that there was a critical error in quality control.
I'm praying for Putin's health... to get worse. I'm praying for victory... of Putin's cancer!
This is not a victory for Ukrain to win.
It's a victory for Nato to win.
And Nato is not doing enough.
Thanks!
Every effort must be made to trace and rescue the "orphan" children, and other women and children who were "evacuated" against their will and put on trains to underpopulated regions of Russia. Russia has declining birthrates, and therefore a shrinking, aging population, and has now resorted to abduction of well-fed Ukrainian women and children to make up their deficits. It is medieval, primitive and abominable, and they must not be forgotten. The longer it takes to return them, the harder it will be.
And who do you send to these Russian cities and towns? Anyone not Russian who tries to enter would only rile Putin up some more.
she is full of it.
I appreciate your observations about what's going on in Ukraine and Russia. BTW pretty dress.
Thanks.
Great analysis
It is essential that Ukraine recovers all its land, including Sebastopol, and other non-Nato countries which border Russia are fully defended - Moldova. This is all about signals - Nato is stronger than Russia.
NATO is stronger, but has never been tested before. Having enough resources to last a war that may take up to a year will grate on everyoneâs attitude.
NATO is not stronger! Russia called the bluff, and thanks to the western sanctions the war pays for it self .
And then thereâs the NAZIS
czcams.com/video/jFzYYTC_p9Y/video.html
Morale is high in Ukrainians. They have united even more with the aggression. They've got everything and more than the invaders.
The same experts that said Kiyv would fall in 36 hours now say its a tall order for Ukraine to beat back the Russian army and re-take their territory. I put little stock in people who claim to be experts of something that is essentially a new type of warfare in a new type of conflict never seen before this war.
Yes, and when this is over, the American public should be able to see what they got for their 55 billion dollars of hard-working taxpayer's dollars
@@wataboutya9310 A free and democratic Ukraine and Europe? I'd pay it gladly
Well? Where were you? Contradicting them in February since your so smart? On paper Russia should have crushed Ukraine. It was impossible to estimate the Russians incompetence keeping their armies supplied or their troops poor morale without detailed intelligence. Something not available to the media. As for your comment this is a new type of warfare - what? Guerilla warfare has been around for a century. Thatâs what the Ukrainians are doing here. It is going to be difficult for the Ukrainians to take back the Donbas. Theyâve been trying to do it since 2014. Since your just a great armchair general maybe you should help them do it.
@@JoeSimonsen
Ukraine will be absorbed into the Russian Federation when this is all over.
@@thephoenix756 All signs point to no
Sorry guys without decent offensive weapons, this is a pipe dream. I want Ukraine to be able to regain all their lands, that's a total defeat to Russia..the West then has to then give them huge amounts of defensive, ground and air. Everyone try to have a good day
Thanks! My Good Day Will Be Finding Reductions On Food Products In My Local Supermarket!
@@jasminebali8068 never fear Albo will soon be here...I Hear he's a đ© will fix the inflation like pulling something from his.....
@@jasminebali8068 Try a Western supermarket. Oh. Sorry.
Just 3 months in? This was supposed to last 1 week tops. Ask vladolf!
I love Julia
Julia is an absolute jewel
Vladimir Putin is Tony Soprano without the charisma and pathos and with nuclear bombs
Am Team Julia.
Julia rocks
It would be nice if you could properly spell the names of the people you interview. Julia's last name is Ioffe; It begins with the letter "I" as in Indigo - not "L" as in Lima. Getting this wrong really affects you credibility!
A brilliant lady. I listen intently when she speaks/is interviewed.
I've seen some terrible journalism before, this discussion was absurd. Waste of bandwidth.
I kind of agree. There wasn't much meat. She's done better interviews. Told me nothing I didn't already know (or suspect). The aspect I respected was 'what does winning the war mean'?
The perfect word to describe Putin is, âa delinquent strategistâ nothing more nothing less.
As grain prices rise through the roof people should go low on carbs
yes..
Not complicated. Answer is yes.
Not much exposition of her reasoning on some of her answers, which makes it look like blind opinion
I am stunned by how Julia so casually comments on the pain, suffering, and human loss Putin has caused by this aggressive act of war. As If Roe v. Wade even comes close in comparison to the tragedy in Ukraine. Aggressive use of force is part of the Russian psyche. International law and humanitarianism aren't even close seconds.
@Richard Jones Yeah, well that's a Russian psyche for you. It's a harsh judgement to make, but I really don't think there's any hope for Russian society as a whole. Corruption as a way of life breeds negativity, and it's such a downward spiral.
It shows what her priorities are. And her misunderstanding of what the function of the supreme court is supposed to be.
She didn't equate the two. She said that the west has its hands full with said issues. Methinks your biases are showing in this case.
@@Auriflamme Exactly
The Questions wouldâve been a nice touch
20% landgrab 100% assetgrabđ„đ€
You need to grab it all backđ„đ€
May Our Lady of Zarvanytsia continue to protect Ukraine from Putin's evil madness. May all Ukrainian saints intercede with the Almighty for the immediate removal of Putin and Lavrov from power. May the First Testament Prophets (Isaiah, Jeremiah, Amos) join all the holy Jewish men and women to bring this about. May St John Paul II and St Nicholas, together with St George, St Michael, Raphael, Gabriel and all the angels protect Ukrainians and bring their country a just peace.
Couldn't you just ask God directly rather than use all those middlemen?
They are not trying to win they are not losing
Beautiful. Regards from Malaysian utuber
Time: 0:10 Uhh, her name isn't "Loffe" it's "Ioffe" - i (the first letter)
From what I've gathered, if NATO and the US would grow a whole spine and send fighter jets to Ukraine, they could really do some damage.
WWIII?
@@stuartwray6175 Some times you gotta break a few eggs.
HmmmâŠâearly in the warâ with the majority of useful cities totally wasted⊠canât imagine what it will look like âlate in the warâ
Hopefully we will see a Russia that looks worse than Mariupol.
VictoryâŠ.. its when you spike the ball in their end-zone.
đŻ
In the mighty name of Jesus Ukraine has victory and freedom and protection amen
Everybody loses...it's all tragic
US is bogged down? The great majority of Congress just approved $40B.
Joe Biden Is STILL President!
Only $6B of that is for weapons and training for Ukraine. The rest goes to the US State Department and to replenish US weapon stockpiles.
Every day Ukraind gets stronger. Its troops are being trained with new weapons systems, its stocks are being replenished, its people are determined. The only powerful piece the Russians retain on the board is their heavy bomber fleet, which may have to be kept back for potential strategic use.
I have a serious Julia crush
Isn't her last name ioffe, and not Loffe?
What. Did. She. EVER. Predict. Correctly. WHAT?
Please stop playing with your hair. How old are you.
How does it feel being wrong julia?????????????????????????
I think causing them to give up and go home is a win. So... fighting to create a stalemate. maximize losses. anything you can reclaim during the fighting is a bonus. Basically be Afghanistan.
Be some damned frustrating to fight that Russia gives up and goes home.
All the speculations and hypothesis always fail to mention the #1 basic fact as to why Russia has failed despite the numbers they have...
Ukraine has said they have been training for a war and studying their movements and tactics since Crimea was taken...on the other hand Russia hasn't been to war since the Cold War...
You can train on anything you want for years until you are in that situation you do not have full experience and training...numbers don't mean anything just look throughout history at all the strategic defeats of much larger armies
Also invading another country...you suffer the biggest setback in that it is not your homeland...the native members know their land and how to traverse it and know where it is suitable for the invaders to cross...essentially even before beginning you are being forced into choke points you don't even know and if you dont realize it and strategize about flanking and securing you flanks then you will continuously fail
Oligarchy has been skimming for decades. Maintenance of their equipment is non-existent. Demographic statistics prove Putrin doesn't have the population for war. Low birth rates, high alcoholism, low life expectancy, flight of the educated and moneyed. The only population left in ruzzia is impotent & demoralized.
I'll
Fiction is what you are struggling to put across as the truth
Ukraine can win if provided with sufficient resources and weapons. Af course russians (even those "pro-western") will say that russia is strong and undefitable, but it's obviously not true, the west is much stonger in all parameters.
Ms Loffe is highly intelligent and a delight to listen to. However, she is not an authority on military matters. Given two sides more or less equal in material, if one side has a decisive advantage in morale, training, and initiative, and suddenly they receive scores of NATO armored fighting vehicles, they will have a decisive advantage when attacking.
This aged well.
How did you manage to get her last name wrong? Joe Kaiden, Barack Hobama, John Melon, Vladimir Shittin.
The spelling of her last name is right there in the bottom left screen..... for anyone caring to look before editing.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Ioffe
Vladimir Shittin, gonna start using that!
Roe vs Wade is not about allowing abortions. It was about having abortions being decided on the federal level.
Removing roe vs Wade would mean that decision making for abortions will be placed on a state level, where every state can decide the degree of when an abortion can be done and not an all centralized decision by the federal level.
I think leave it up to the actual person to decide.
Otherwise where does it end ? Can I brush my teeth now, or should I apply to some federal or state court to get permission, or be denied ?
I think you're on the wrong page here, Bud. This is about the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
@@DennisMathias I would agree but I'm just commenting on something she mentions during this video.
UkraineđșđŠ has wonđȘ because it has resisted Russianđ€ź aggression, and has likely secured freedom and democracy for its people đ
The free world stands with Ukraine đșđČđŹđ§đșđŠđ°đ·đŻđ”đȘ
Brainwashed much.????
"WON"? Some Victory!
@@jasminebali8068 Well, considering the disparity in military forces it is indeed some victory, This war will be studied for generations as a lesson on how not to invade a country.
Yes we will always see Ukraine as fighters and winners against the murderous infestation that came from Russia.
@@jasminebali8068 Lose? Russia has already lost. I pray for the victory of Putin's cancer!
I hope she understands that she isnt a military analyst and her opinion of whether Ukraine can fight back is immaterial. Sadly shes made some big overestimations of Putin and Russia constantly and minized sanctions repeatedly when they are doing the heavy lifting in crippling Russias technology sector. Kinda disappointing after buying all of her books.
Agree. She is specialised in Vladimir's psyche not in Russian military capabilities.
She speaks with assuredness, can seem dispassionate, but listen without emotionality. She never sugar coats.
@@lolodee3528 She should stay in her lane. Clearly as the war progressed her overestimation of Russian strength is fairly stark as is her refusing to acknowledge that sanctions are working and her rich Russians friends need to feel the pain too.
She is great but her closeness to wealthy russians clouds her judgement.
No way sweet.đ
Ukraine already has won pootin's war.
To end this war the Ukrainians need to interdict the Kerch Straits-Tuzla Island Bridges first, from that good things can follow. Until that bridge's logistic supply line, that is near unassailable, is cut, Kherson to Melitupol are not going to fall to the Ukrainians. It requires heavy rockets to do the job.
Russians need to step up. Period. Everything after NOT removing Putin, is a tragic waste of time, energy and, resources. Which will very probably have, horribly unfortunate, consequences.
Would someone please get this woman a roll of duct tape and an old sock.
What about the splitting up Russia?? Austria, once a great empire, now smaller then Moscow.
Good luck with that
Answer : No.
The Ukrainians will have to accept a situation like we had too in Ireland and cede land to their bullying neighbour. Partition will be a longterm disaster but because of planted population is basically the only solution to end actual war with an aggressive, expansionist neighbour.
Spot on. And it won't end there. Russia will no doubt regroup and go again in a few years time for a bit more.
It's not an expansionist neighbour. Zelensky promised to pursue peace as outlined in the Minsk agreement. You mention Ireland; why not Scottish and Welsh devolution?
@@stuartwray6175 "not an expansionist neighbor" I want some of whatever you've been smoking
@@thefisherking78 Despite the media referring to 'Russian backed seperatists', Russia in accordance with the Minsk II agreement, never backed independence for Donetsk and Luhansk, but merely a level of autonomy within Ukraine. Zelensky was elected in 2019 with a 73% majority and the promise of following through on thet agreement.
Russia has a larger column than Ukraine and we don't know Putin end game.
Clarity.
Bad manager. Incompetent as well as immoral.
No
All Ukraine needs to do is survive to win.
Not going to happen. Zelensky gets a Tiki Torch Parade, courtesy of Ukraine People. Won't be much left after they are done with him
Ukraine already won. The glory day will come when they take back all lost territories. The only unknown is cost and when.
@khmer31 I just heard that Putin is creating a special fund to donate to because he's running out of ammo & weapons! Slava Ukraini!