Australia scraps French submarine deal
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- čas přidán 30. 09. 2021
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Five years after penning the most expensive conventional #submarine contract ever, #France and #Australia are at loggerheads.
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Yes.
You credibility is damaged with this clip. You cant get anything right. Did you get your information from your local news paper, or were you writing fiction?
Thank you very much for the neatly compiled comprehensive report
@@Ninja4ssasin and you are ignorant to be frank these subs are Nucleared Powered Subs not Ballistic Missiles subs which you are confused over the difference, this has nothing to do with Iran the fact is Iran wants nuclear power not for the needs of their own people but to be a nuclear terrorist, your info is incomplete and Australia won't be another nuclear power even if it did that's going to take years to harness nuclear power technology.
@@stuartemmanuel3735 the concerns is Australia are not only buying the Nuclear Powered Submarines itself, but the deal also includes several Tomahawk Missiles packages which can be easily armed with nuclear warheads.
The real reason France was not included because it would be called FUKUS instead of aukus
Is that also why Canada is not in it cause it will be called CAUKUS
got a good laugh out of that one
😂
No, that would have been them playing with themselves. Y
😂
A deal is a deal... until a better one comes along. Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #16.
most excellent
Delays aren’t part of the deal though especially with how times are now 🤷♀️
Was the deal violated? Didn't it have a withdrawal with penalty clause that was exercised?
I imagine that if the original deal with the original price and original time table were still in effect the Australians might have decided to continue with France.
@@aratirao9007 no one asked
And naturally this contract had various get-out clauses, one of which the Aussies activated.
The original deal was very bad for Australia, which was the fault of crooked/facile Aussie politicians mostly. It took some balls for the next guys to cancel and get an upgrade elsewhere.
"Paris and Canberra"
*shows picture of Sydney*
Well I guess a picture of a Kangaroo pooping on the Eiffel tower would have been more interesting
@@xmaniac99 Should have shown Beijing and Berlin
To be fair, if he showed a picture of Canberra, most people would probably be scratching their heads wondering why he put a random picture of a valley full of trees and some barely visible houses...
We knew what he meant. At least he turned the Australian footage upright so we didn't have to turn our phones upside down.
People wont recognize Canberra anyway.
From an Oz perspective, this is a very good summary video, with all the major issues covered.
I would add that the clincher to the deal was the willingness of the US to share this technology with Oz (they simply weren't willing to share before Xi came along) and the ability of the US/UK subs to remain fueled for the entirety of their lifetime, unlike the French barracuda. This was critical as Oz does not have a local nuclear industry and is in no position to refuel them..yet.
I do believe this is a toe in the door for an Australian nuclear industry, which is a good thing, but otherwise too politically difficult to introduce directly. The subs are a trojan horse to kick start this industry.
Too right!
We already have a nuclear industry though in terms of uranium for export and isotopes used in medicine and research. I don't think it'll open the door for a local nuclear energy industry because the costs are so high, if we were willing to spend the money to develop it even with technology transfers we would have already spent a 10th of that to just import the equipment directly from and one of 7 or so countries that can already do it. Renewables are falling in cost and nuclear just isn't really
@@Freshbott2 I think in the long term we will go nuclear in the broader sense of nationwide energy generation, as costs decline and the technology of small reactors make it more feasible.
This will be in conjunction with renewables, not as an either / or.
Agree
My concern however, is the lack of forward planning inside Canberra.
Xi is there since 2013, and QUAD as a union against China is not a new idea - Abe raised that since late 2000s.
Between now and then, Aussie switched from Japanese Soryu to French Barracuda (diesel version in specific) to potential US subs.
While I don’t denind the necessary of nuclear subs, why did you guys back and forth like this? So when Chinese building subs like wrapping dumplings, and Japanese building Soryu successors, you guys are still stuck with the 6 Collins.
Its such a shame that Mainstream media cant deliver such quality content even after having so much funds at their disposal
That's because it's run by the rich and the politicians are buddies :) tax payer funded but that tax money is put into government represented propaganda for the masses to consume. There is no country borders or races at war there is only the rich versus the poor and they use their power and resources through the institutions and media to not only turn people and races against each other but also dumbing down the population
Edit: the rich have always made the decisions and that has been the case for eons. Today is absolutely no different and we are turning back to old medieval ways of lords nobles and us the muddy peasants. The working class is obselete as machines can now do most of our jobs and this has been planned for a long time. After the reset happens there will be only one way of thinking and the past will very likely be erased. Technology that we see as making our lives easier is infact going to replace us.
@@lk8300Agree to you to a certain extent but people have always been fighting even in absence of crony capitalist
They cater to the dumb masses who wont understand words like "geopolitics".
@@lk8300 who do you think funds this channel?
I thought a few of them covered it well.
I think Australia chose France in 2016 was because Australia doesn't want to anger China. But since then China and Australia relation worsen so what's the point
Well Scomo did a fine job of pissing off China all because he wanted to be Trump's lap dog.
France or Germany was the better option for Australia.
Quite neutral, very good technologies.
They could have bought nuclear powered subs from France, but they prefered diesel because they would have had a complete hand on these.
Now they bought submarines they are unnable to maintain and will have to embark US atomic engineers on board.
They had the choice between sovereignty and tactical alignment they chose alignment.
@@sarahcollins190 That is literally his job. Australia is weak and vulnerable. The Australian PM's job is to go and suck up to whoever is in power and get us protection. Scomo is doing a great job of sucking up to Trump, and then now sucking up to Biden.
@@sarahcollins190 The deal was just made. Trump is no longer president so Scomo is trying to be Biden's lapdog maybe???
@Heath Inglis China and Japan aren't friends either
Another factor that is all too often forgotten is the fact that historically the Australian Defence Force has had difficulty integrating French weapons systems in to a defence force which primarily uses American equipment. The Army‘s French Tiger helicopters have proven themselves to be a lemon and are in the process of being replaced by Apaches, the old Mirages of decades ago had difficulty using American sidewinders, and until recently the RAN had issues procuring the French submarines. All 3 services have had negative experiences with French systems, and in the current global climate, the Australian Defence Force would want equipment it can rely upon.
After all, what’s the point of a multi-billion dollar military investment if what was procured can’t work?
Sure, but what's the point of taking a multi-billion dollar engagement if you already know that what is procured won't work?
@@zamzamazawarma928 Consulting fees are a peach
@@zamzamazawarma928 Politics. A lot of this has to do with internal Australian politics.
@@404Dannyboy Thanks for that insight because I had same question. Maybe there something more on that in youtube. Why buy French in the first place. Maybe because Australia wants multiple countries to support it's fleet in the future and to show the world it will buy weapons aggressively?
@@josephr7529 Cost, I assume. Cheaper models.
“In a world of intricate power plays where self interest sits at the core, it’s hard to tell who has your back from who has it long enough just to stab you in it”
Well said.
There are permanent Allies or Enemies only permanent interests.
I feel like that pretty much sums up the China-Russia "alliance"
@@QuantumAscension1 Any smart leader knows not to trust the US from it's track record of betraying its promises every 4-8 years. China's issue is that it will keep its promises but will also bully you economically if you are dependent too much on them and Russia is about the most realpolitik playing nation globally, so there is really no trust with them, only careful treaties.
@@dongster529 China does not live up to its promises.
@@unnecessaryapostrophe4047 Still more reliable than a manic-personality type govt like the US that's gets a free pass to break their promises every 4-8 years. Look what happened to the Kurds, Ukrainians, Syrians, Afghans in recent years, even the French aren't spared.
A smart leader will fence sit between the 2 of them since you can't really trust either and you get to be in a better negotiation spot.
You also predicted a tightening in ties between UK, AUS, USA and CAN. Although the latter was not relevant in this specific engagement, it does again show the new Atlantic alliance with a reduced relevance for Europe, which seems to become more regional in importance to keep Russia blocked. Indonesia however really blocks Australia in the sense that for efficient trade, it need good ties to Jakarta. It would be great to have an in-depth video about Indenoesia btw.
Yes that would be a nice video since there had been a growth of an anti-China feeling in Indonesia since the pandemic and the revelation of China's treatment of Uyghur people.
Canada with black face is pro EU.
Yep it has to make ammends to what AUS did to IND before
@@tadoshka5170 While that is true, Indonesia still has not taken a side. China is a big player in Indonesia's infrastructure, particularly in the recent high speed railway projects
@@tadoshka5170 hahaha Indonesian navy is weak and irrelevant to be discussed. It doesn't even included in this video. In the event of war between China and the western allies, both China and the Western navy can neutralize Indonesian navy in a short time.
"A deal is a deal, until it's not."
Wise words.
A deal is a deal is a contract. There's a frigging contract with an out clause and a exit price - $330mil. Let the French sue if they think they have a case (they won't, they'll lose.)
@@graemesydney38 indeed.
_Just because you're correct doesn't mean you're right_
@@graemesydney38 They're entitled to compensation under the terms of the deal, so they probably won't have to sue. Australia will just buy their way out.
@@elephantman2112 I know. So why are they screaming their tits off about been backstabbed etc etc.? The answer is that its all political theatre intended for French domestic consumption. But the stupidity of it is that the French tizzy attack will cause damage in other areas both to Australia and France. And on that theme the French are threatening to double down using their influence in the EU etc. The French have the vindictiveness of a female with the memory of a guy.
Plot twist: they never wanted the French sub and tricked the Chinese into wasting time studying the wrong sub😂
🤣🤣🤣
They don't call Australian's "shitposting champions" for nothing!
The Chinese now have casus belli to include our Australian cities into a limited nuclear strike zone now in any conflict with Taiwan
Previously we could have profited immensely from trade with China but somehow we ended up with the American puppet Abbott who betrayed Australian economic and security interests and offered ourselves as targets for Chinese reprisals while enjoying none/little of the economic benefits.
We are a de facto puppet state. It took me a while but I have come to that realization with much disappointment.
@@slslbbn4096 everyone who’s an ‘ally’ of the USA is just a puppet state and has been for a long time.
@@slslbbn4096 De-facto puppet state to whom? Previously we've practically been a Puppet State to China as they quite literally been putting tariffs on everything from Barley to Beef, hell they downright banned certain products such as wood, lobsters and wine every-time we do something that the CCP even slightly dislikes.
And just because 'They Can' doesn't mean they will, every nuclear-capable country knows this. Hell if China does give us nukes America and UK will do the same, not to mention how China will literally lose practically all of it's coal and iron even it dared to do so
"Contracts are like hearts. They are made to be broken."
-- Michael Keaton as Ray Kroc in The Founder
good film
◻️ SERCH ADITYA RATHORE-HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
@@hansymillery8309 that's how the wind changes direction when it comes to politics and wars
a deal is a deal except when it's not - quote of the decade
I feel like this quote will define alot of things in the coming years
Well there were exit clauses AU$90B+ is a lot for a country of 25m..
There was NO contractual agreement to build the submarines.
Lock her up!
The clintons are good people.
If you don't deliver your product to the customer on time (years late) your customer owes you nothing as you've broken your contract
My boi Shirvan pronounces Canberra correctly!
can bruh
He doesn't, though.
Cranberry
CAN BEH RAH
He certainly does! It's an Anglicisation of the local Aboriginal tribe, the Ngambri, not the Ngam-Berry.
"A deal is a deal until it is not"
The best intro line ever in the context of geopolitics
Pro-government press in Australia has argued it would have been better to reduce the French order to 6 subs to fill the gap between old subs retiring and the Aukus subs arriving.
That would have given the French something too.
That Fella from Downunder has bruised knees after a week in the US
The US and Australia have been close allies since 1941.
Defence policy is NOT about "giving" for the heck of it..it is about WHAT YOU NEED!
@@iangrantham8300 - Don’t shout. Greg Sheridan doubts we’ll see any nuclear subs in 2040 and probably not for years after either. Keeping a reduced Naval Group contract going would see those subs delivered from 2030.
And defence might be about contracts but foreign affairs is about relationships. Pissing France off was completely unnecessary even gratuitous. Why humiliate a friend for no reason.
@@TenOrbital yup. France could - and should - have been handled better, even if the deal was a bad idea and incompatible with other hardware. Scotty From Marketing has made a habit of governing via press conference and isn't exactly known for being diplomatic - to Australia's detriment. He freely admitted that he only thought of telling Macron the night before the announcement. France has 550,000 civilians in the Pacific (compared to Britain's 11,000)
Have waited for your take on this!
France: YOU BACKSTABBED ME, BRITAIN!
Poland: First time?
Kek
@@bubblegumKUSH cake
Bit dramatic innit France, I’d hardly call it a backstab
@@warrcoww6717 more of a cock shot
Perfidious Albion stricks again.
"A deal is a deal except when its not"
lol
great intro
In 14 minutes, this is a well-reasoned and realistic synopsis of the situation. Well done!
Australia made the right choice but they did it in the wrong way. Transparency with France would have avoided a lot of this. Yes, there would have been anger and disappointment from the French, but not to the current scale.
Avoided a lot of what? The only party that has a problem is France and as you said they were going to be angry either way.
@@cormacsugrue7135 Sure, however careful and transparent mediation is much more effective in relations.
This is true but when you fire someone you don't want to fk around chatting about it
@@cormacsugrue7135 that’s the thing “the only one that has a problem is France and who cares”.
Europe has to show that the one that you get a problem with is not just France or another country like that. It’s Europe. Then “the only one that has a problem with it is the EU” and maybe it sounds differently when you’re trying to get a trade deal with your 3rd trade market, maybe you deal with it a bit more transparently.
EXACTLY. The French knew they were going to be dumped. They just didn't expect it to be that fast and NOT be told about it either. Had they been told beforehand they would've been performatively mad; now they're pissed-off angry.
John cena: “You can’t see me”
John xina: “You can’t xi Taiwan as a country”
ayo you guys wilding 😂🤣🤣 the dps
cool comment bro
Oh, wow, that's the most impressive one* that I've seen in a while.
*comment
*Bro You are Popular Now in Discord and 4Chan as well wtf*
John Xena the trans Amazon hybrid
This feels like the irl equivalent of canceling a treaty early in something like a total war game and everyone then hates you
this project, did not fail quickly.
There have been problems and plenty of "sketchy, but technically not illegal" things happening with it since before the contract was signed, and covering it without talking about naval group incurring 10 years of delays 5 years from the start of the contract seems like a miss.
the french govt has every right and reason to be upset about how it played out, as does australia which nobody wants to talk about, but the french should not be surprised.
Absolutely, the contract should have never been signed in the first place (Not that this says anything good about the Australian defence procurement process).Y
Nice to see you talking about this
This isn't really your subject area.....
Spammer
@@anneeq008 exactly lol
Idk is this the real space big brain man from somewhere in Europe? He seems... awfully suspicious
Una sorpresa verte aquí
7:18
Bruh, those Chinese "generals" are loving that M4 lol.
There looking at quality American products, not like that cheap shit China creates ;)
I don't think they are Chinese. More probably Korean or Taiwanese.
@@konfunable they're Chinese. Two of them have the rank of Major General on their shoulder
@Kong Jun Jie Hello here too. How's life going?
@Kong Jun Jie because even a century old musket today can kill people . and its in number .
Never have I seen a review of a game in such a serious tone, and I really love it
Nobody provides context so simply and beautifully as Caspian Report.
France and Germany has no appetite for confronting China or Russia
Yeah no shit, do you want a third world war? It's easy to be confrontational when you are an ocean away.
I think they do care about Russia, it's on their doorstep, China has no land borders into Europe though and it feels far away from them.
I think it's just not in the interest of those countries. Confronting China, France stands to lose prized possessions in the Pacific for no good reason. And Russia provides Europe with gas, let's not forget about that.
I'll add that Russia isn't really threatening Europe like the USSR used to.
@@tobene No one in the west wants a world war, some of us just know we need to be prepared to fight it though, which in itself might deter it from happening. The anglosphere bailed out Europe twice, they'd better be there when it's not on their doorstep this time. Germany please be on the right side for once in your god damn life too.
And i think this move of Australia and anglosphere will not help to bring France in this conflict with China. Nothing to gain and all to lose with no solid allies and no interest to do it for France.
After the termination of the Contract, The French have offered 6 Baracuda Class Nuclear SSNs to New Delhi. They are expected to sign a deal soon. India has previously tried to acquire Nuclear Subs from US but they gave repeatedly declined the request. India currently has 3 Indigeneously built SSBN nuclear subs.
It is beneficial to both as French gain the much needed ally in the chinese sphere while India got their hands on the nuclear subs they have been trying to get for a long time.
India and France make better sense as allies, India has the $$$ and France has the experience.
@Alfred Weber In India's case, better than none
@@lamalien2276 🔸 SERCH ADITYA RATHORE-HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
@Alfred Weber The Barracuda submarines are some of the stealthiest submarines in the world, what are you talking about
@Alfred Weber How exactly? You cant just say they are inferior, reasons please?
Shirvan and everyone that puts work into these videos we salute you. There's so many interesting things in geopolitics that alot of us don't know about or don't know the details of em and yall knock it out the park every single video. Everything's well researched and presented in a professional manner. Just wanted to say thank you and keep up the great work. Chicago supports Caspian Report 💪🤜🤛👏
Relax
7:50 "Disinterest is not a word in Washington's vocabulary"
Okay, Mr. Washington, for the spelling-bee championship your word is 'disinterest'.
"Disinterest - I-N-T-E-R-V-E-N..."
Barracuda class subs are nuclear-powerd. But the Australians wanted a disel-powerd sub.
The main point is the reactor-tech in the barracudas, they have to refuel every 10 years
AFAIK it removes the need for weapons grade uranium as fuel.
LEU powered nuclear submarine Barracuda, has less maintainance & fuel cost. Cause it can use the civilian & commercially available & economic u-235 fuel rods into its nuclear reactor. Barracuda's design is maintainance friendly than other nuclear submarines. When a Barracuda sub will return to its port to remove its spent fuel rods it will take just a week to get these out & install fresh fuel rods inside it. Whereas, others in similar class, take months if not years to get the works done. They have to get the whole superstructure halfed & then remove the reactor < remove the spent rods < fill in new rods & do the rest.
Australia could have bought the French nuclear capable version of Barracuda. After the AUKUS tension escalation with France vs. anglosphere happened, the French president Macron directly called the Indian Prime Minister Modi. The French president is rumoured to be offering the Indian PM with France's latest Barracuda class submarine for India’s six domestic SSN construction project. I hope India cancel the ongoing 6 SSK program under Project - 75i. And include this number to SSN program adding a total of 12 SSNs, that are aided with French technology.
I'm not sure the French were willing to give Aus nuke sub tech? Might be wrong dunno.
@@damienroberts934 France & Australia, both are nuclear suppliers group i.e. NSG members. Transferring a non-weapon grade uranium powered nuclear submarine design between two members of NSG, are relatively easier to do. If Australia wanted it may have a French designed nuclear submarine being built in Australian dry dock.
But Australia chose other option.
@@devashisdas5024 Unknown I think. Doubt the French would provide nuke subs to Aust back in 2015.
"A deal is a deal until..."
"Oi mate, wot oim gonna do wots call a pro gamur move"
With jokes like that i think your gonna be the first target of the aussie nuclear subs buddy!
Obvious /s
@@countbinfaceglobalpresiden7926 Yeah, nah, yeah.
France broke the deal by being both overdue and overbudget
Thank you for these videos explaining current events in a clear and nonbiased manner better then any "journalism" outlet
Always a pleasure to watch a CaspianReport video. Your research and clean analysis of global trends make for informative and persuasive summaries of geopolitical events.
I can feel east timor crying in the background
*jokingly* who?
East Timor got its maritime border fixed and is now at ease with Australia
“It’s hard to tell who has your back from who has it long enough just to stab you in it” - Geopolitics in a nutshell!
Plenty of dead Australians in French war cemeteries, none of them in ours. As a nation Australia has had the French back plenty of times.
the aussues have every right to do so because the deal with France isnt becoming good
@@diollinebranderson6553 As said in the video, the problem is not the break up of the deal, there will be compensations and Paris has signed a contract to build frigates to Greece and is confident to give nuclear powered submarines to India so its military industry is not at risk. No the problem is that France see's itself as a Indo-Pacific nation and that the new AUKUS which are supposed to be allies didn't even talked to them about creating a new alliance.
@@scottyates5758 yes we did not betray France... we backed out of a business deal.... why is the French government selling any thing!!!!! you should not be able to break alliances as a bargaining chip in business deals... the French did betray us we have sent boys to die in there land 2 times and one time helped to liberate them!!!!! to them that matters less than this deal
@@johney3734 "we backed out of a business deal" By officially announcing a new one before even cancelling it. What form of cancellation is that? Not a diplomatic one at least. Even better, it was announced the day before the EU was to publish its long-planned Indo-Pacific policy. Truly great timing to show how little Morrison want more allies than the ones he already had
This channel is consistently great. Happy I found it years ago, keeps me informed about international politics and geopolitics better than any US media does.
Damn good break down of the issues. True journalism, far superior to the MSM.
Well done!
What’s the ‘MSM’?
@@chiquicat1 mainstream media. The acronym is often used as a pejorative based off the popular perception that the industry is prone to obfuscation, reporting only on things that affirm their agenda, or downright lies.
This is of course nonsense, at least when the industry is viewed as a whole. It is unfortunate that those who espouse these beliefs are unable to appreciate the irony that in shying away from professional journalism they have turned to either less accurate or sometimes far less salubrious sources.
@@teal4168 Professional journalism and mainstream media are not the same. Plenty of independent and professional media out there. MSM has steadily been losing credibility due to the biggest redistribution of information with the ever increasing reach of the internet. The idea that MSM doesn't try to mold news to fit their respective agendas is demonstrably false.
@@alv4049 I think you may have misread my comment, while any one editorial may shape things to fit a narrative the industry when viewed in aggregate does not.
@@teal4168 @Teal This is simply not true. MSM is only divided among binary partisan lines.
As an example, the ongoing Ethiopian conflict is demonstrably being misrepresented on contrasting outlets like Fox News and CNN - who together make up the bulk of cable news. This is neither new, nor surprising.
Do one on the Greek French strategic/military alliance. There is now a mutual military assistance pact in case of an attack from a third country
It's called NATO alliance and it's been in place for quite some time now.
The Baguette are not known for upholding those deals for long once push comes to shove but more likely to do so than the fish and chips. Historically speaking the Iberians and the lands of vodka have been far more likely to stay to fulfill deal obligations than the rest of Europe even long after it became an economic detriment.
@@a.b.6233 Do your research. Greece signed a deal with France which includes the sale of warships to Greece, but more importantly on the Agreements 2nd article states that should one of the 2 countries face attack or invasion by a 3rd country, the other country will automatically provide military assistance
@@GAndreC That's something we won't know unless Greece faces a Turkish attack in the future.
@@johnalexander5789 And isn't that what NATO is all about? An attack on one partner nation means an attack on all the others?
Excellent analysis that goes far beyond that provided by the mainstream media.
Another analytical and well-researched segment from Caspian Report. I particularly liked the focus on responses from other states, namely India, Indonesia, and New Zealand, which have been ignored by mainstream reporting on AUKUS
Indonesia warn the Australians, the British, and the Americans, that such AUKUS thing could speed up arms race in the Pacific. Already, Indonesian politicians, intellectuals, and general public, who stood against China before AUKUS, now preferred to get closer to China after AUKUS.
A nuclear power cannot be accepted by Indonesia, especially if such power just stands next to Indonesia.
@@anantakandaka5096 oh boo fucking hoo Australia has every right to expand its defence force did you indos whinge when China Built Nuclear POWERED subs? Of course you didn't (hint which leg the indos are gripping) as for NZ well they will probably stab Aus in the back just to keep their economy affloat.
Funny thing ia that hours before cancelling australia sent France a note saying they were 'extremely satisfied' with the process.
Happy with the process, but not the price and delivery.
@@TonyRule I mean there was clearly some confusion/overreaching on the Aussie side
' British defence sources argued that it was left to the Australians to break the news to the French, but it seemed there were divisions in Canberra about the best way of going about it.
“Some Australians wanted to ring up one week and say we’re so sorry, we’re putting out the diesel submarine contract, and ring up the next week and say we just want you to know that we found a better submarine and it’s British,” the defence source said.
“There was another school of thought that said: don’t do it like that. They’ll see through it and it will be worse because it will look duplicitous.”
In the end, neither side won. The French were not told before details began to leak to the Australian and US media on Wednesday morning.'
“Should we tell them?”
“Nah it’s just France lol”.
Time for Europe to show its not “just France” or “just Italy” or whatever.
@@trezapoioiuy I mean "Aukus: Australia-EU trade talks delayed as row deepens" BBC headline from 4 hours ago.
@@AlexC-ou4ju That's how things have to be.
Excellent commentary. This really helped me understand this development in a way that I haven’t seen other news outlets do.
Thank you for being being unbiased. You understand the views of both sides. I hope you never change this is a very rare trait nowadays.
I feel like Anton Petrov from “What da Math” and Shirvan are secretly the same person.
2 channels I love!
Thanks to you, now I know who he is. Although Anton, being Bulgarian, has a more Eastern European accent compared to Shirvan.
@@interdictr3657 They are both great
@@kosmicheskiprah awesome. They sound the same. They are both extremely smart
There are not the same person, people from Slavic nations sound relatively the same but if you from one ( like myself) you know the difference. I think the name Caspian Report comes from the Caspian Sea so I believe since the name Shirvan is common in Azerbaijan which is a country that borders the Caspian Sea this is the most likely place the author of this channel is from. This would explain his vast knowledge of the region and Russia as well. Also Shirvan is not a Bulgarian name.
was waiting for your take on this issue!!!
"A contract is a contract is a contract... but only between Ferengi."
Indonesia has the most to lose from this deal. Any conflict between China - Australia/The West will impact Indonesia as it is sandwiched between the two sides and will be in the middle of a shooting match.
True, but Indonesia can choose to play both sides to at least profit a little from it
Indonesia, and the countries closer to China has the most to win from this deal. Look at the 9 dash line.
The CCP wants territory, and it's not going to be Australian or American territory that is going to be taken.
And the stronger the opposing force in the region, the harder for CCP to make aggressive moves.
Indonesian is quietly satisfied from this deal. They are very worried about China too. But the Oz subs will help protect Indonesian waters without the Indos having to pay any extra.
By any means, Indonesia ussually doesn't consider Australia nor China as a good news. One has bad track record for "trust" as a partner, another one is parking their Coast Guard ship at Indonesian EEZ for the so called traditional fishing ground.
Indonesia will support Western block since a strong China is bad for Indonesia
"In a world of intricate powerplays where self interest sits at the core its hard to tell who has your back from who has it long enough just to stab you in it"
Words to live by
Nobody got stabbed in the back. The cost overruns and timetable slips worried Australia enough to begin seriously questioning the deal last year. France should have seen the writing on the wall and negotiated a price cut, but they couldn't. Their defense industries submarine construction infrastructure is inefficient and people have known this for years now.
And nobody will be getting stabbed in the back in the Pacific. The US will have to fight that war as will most of it's allies. Sitting it out is not an option. Neither is defeat. Only a win or a negotiated peace will be sufficient. The latter being the far more likely outcome between nuclear powers but a tremendous amount of damage done to the world economy and possibly even the Pacific itself.
Sounds like my business life
@@snedzy1506 you sound British
@@rimacalid6557 Aussie mate but it seems like kind of a western thing... societal in nature
0:45 "Paris is not happy, Beijing is concerned"
I love it when a plan comes together
Australia "torpedoed" the Deal, underrated pun.
Fun fact. The original deal was to buy Japanese subs but politics got in the way and Australia ended up getting the French subs. The Japanese where not upset. Instead they laughed at Australia saying "good luck with the french"
...and yet in like 50 years of having 80% of our electricity being nuclear, we haven't had one single major accident...
@Alfred Weber 🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@benoitbvg2888 That nuclear burn damn
@Saya Berdikari An earthquake took place there and thus resulting in such an accident.
@@noah000 it would've been fine if Japan didn't cut corners on the backup systems.
I think the most important nuance that majority of the media failed to report is the issue of service and maintenance that Shrivan rightly pointed out. I think it is very safe to cast doubts on France's willingness to provide the above services to Aussies if an out n' out conflict breaks out, but as an Indian we are very thankful to the French for the Rafale deal but also for setting up operations and the necessary technology transfer so we can maintain these jets ourselves in the future.
France has always been a rather solid ally to india.
Hell I wish they had won the colonial conflict in india instead of the Brits.
@@shreygupta9179 Nah man.... It doesn't matter who the colonizer is, it's always gonna suck. If you think France would have been a better colonial power than Britain, than just look at their history in Africa, Arab world and most significantly in Haiti. Heck why talk about something that happened 50 years ago just look up the involvement of Sarkozy's govt. during the Arab springs. This is not a diss against France ..... just saying that historically human beings have always misused a position of power for their own agenda and greed
@@naveenveeravalli3478 plus if the French had won, us Aussies wouldn't have the opportunity to kick your arses at cricket :-P
@@shreygupta9179 The grass is always greener on the other side, probably wouldn't have been significantly different
@@kirkc9643 I still have the sweet memories of the Gabba test in my mind even though I haven't watched cricket in a long time also might I remind you that you guys no longer have Ricky leading your team but we still have kick ass talent coming through. Tides have changed my friend.... but we always love a good showdown between India and the Aussies.😜
I love this channel not only for its thoughtful insight, but the very rare to see civil discussion in the comments
🔴 SERCH ADITYA RATHORE-HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
Thank you for this video, by far the most lucid description of the aukus agreement I have seen to date.
The French sold them a Submarine which had Baguettes in the torpedo tubes.
Aussies fuming
No country stands a chance against Australias chiko roll missiles
French weapons sucks
But nothing is harder than a stale baguette!
hahahahaha soggy ones
@Not Needed Better be Germany's punching bag than being insulted by an "ally"
As the French proverb goes: never trust the anglos
and never trust the French to deliver on time.
More like: always raise the white flag.
@@hansymillery8309 I'm neither an American nor an Anglo so I don't really care 😂 i do find the need of many to bash them somewhat pathetic though. This whole business is just the French whining because the Aussies exercised an exit clause in their agreement. Which both nations agreed to... Since I don't know the details of any F-35 contracts signed by the US, who did they sign an agreement with to provide them with F-35s? Did they withdraw from said agreement using a mechanism of the contract or did they simply abandon the agreement?
@@hermes6910 Sure, they delayed signing contracts for the next phase when the French couldn't address their concerns. At the end of the day both signed the deal with those exit clauses and the Aussies did what they thought was best for them. Such is business.
@@hermes6910 There are always two sides to every story and each one will claim theirs is the real one.
There were multiple issues over the lifetime of this contract including cybersecurity concerns, cost overruns, the French not being able to meet original deadlines due to redesign requirements(construction of the first sub would only start in 2023), the Australian local labour requirement being reduced from a 90% to 60% with the French fighting back against even that requirement, the Aussies being offered a better deal for better subs as well as the new alliance, etc. The Aussies will obviously need to pay for any work that has already been done but they aren't inextricably bound to the deal, that's why it has exit clauses...
Morrisons handling of the issue may be less than stellar but they absolutely had the right to cancel the deal and those who use this as an excuse to bash Anglos are nothing but a bunch of whiney babies.
It's good research you do. Often answering questions with answer not publicly available. Good trust factor.
Great show as always, and the quotes that you use to end each episode are golden. Keep up the great work.
Thank you Shirvan, great video.
Unfortunately the New Zealand government will never be able to mediate between AUKUS and the CCP due to the infiltration they have allowed into their midst from the communist party of China. Greed and shortsighted policies have blinded their eyes. Also many New Zealand voters, like the current government, are geopolitically inept to see the past, present and future patterns in a way that reflects the true reality of the geopolitical landscape.
The warning signs through mainstream media are that the current NZ Prime Minister refers to any criticism of the Chinese government as zenophobia or dismisses such criticism as conspiracy theory - not directly always, but through suggestive language and deflection. Her voters are largely subscribed to this narrative.
Until that is part of greater game. We need to remember that in opposition to Russia. US and China fight over shared interests. It is not dick measuring. It is a peacock dance.
.'..Australia torpedoed the deal...' 😂 My choice for metaphor of the year.
Great video! Thanks, Shirvan!
A much needed analysis of this conflict!
Looking forward to your African forecast of 2022!
“Torpedo the deal” lol i see what u did there
Love your work my friend, much respect from NZ
We were waiting for it. Thank you so much
A very convoluted deal so the US can have the infrastructure and refuelling capabilities in Australia given that Guam is too small and Hawaii too far away from China. This is what this deal is all about. Having American nuclear subs bases down under
Get a clue, dude. Japan is way closer to China than Australia and the US Seventh Fleet is based in Sasebo, Japan. Guam is too small? Lol, the naval bases at Guam are enormous. It is the home port for USN 688 class fast attack nuclear submarines USS Key West (SSN-722), USS Oklahoma City (SSN-723), USS Topeka (SSN-754), USS Asheville (SSN-758)
@@red94mr28 it also has facilities to dock supercarriers for short periods of time
@@thecatalyst6212 Yeah, makes sense since Guam is enormous due to its very strategic location. OP was just FOS.
It was a bad deal (with France) that Australia should have never signed to begin with.
True, but reneging on a deal is a risky move. Let's see if it pays off
It made way more sense to buy the japanese subs. But japan didn't want to hand over their technology and wanted to build the subs themselves. I think the reason Australia is so keen to build them themselves is so they can learn how to maintain them properly in the process and replace spare parts themselves in case they get cut off during war time.
And the man who signed us up has the gaul to criticize !!
@andrew koi min wong yeah, the australian exigences are what made the deal so expensive to begin with.
@@davesprivatelounge A buyout was built into the contract. Nothing was reneged on. It was cancelled (justifiably) using the option to do so.
Two days and already counting 3.1K comments not short one sentence but long comments. The level of engagement in your videos is really amazing. You deserve it because you put a lot of effort to creat high quality content.
Excellent analysis... clarify the correct alignment of Australia's strategy and current geopolitical climate/risks.
Ever since the Aukus anouncement, I've been waiting for Shirvan to cover it.
It's likely that this deal will continue the sense started during the Obama presidency and that became more urgent during the Trump presidency, that Europe can count on less attention and support from the USA in future. That they have their own more immediate concerns and that Europe will come after.
So once again this has led to calls that the EU needs to further develop its own strategic autonomy.
And yeah, that's happened before with only limited changes from it. But even a lot of small changes eventually will amount to a larger one. So it is likely that this will fuel another step or two along this path.
A nice silver breakdown of the dynamic here. Really enjoying these recent videos.
Thank you. Much appreciated.
Great take on things. I've heard of the drama surrounding this deal. Most places make it out to be a sudden random decision to make a deal with the US and go back on their deal with france. I'm glad I got to hear you look at it from multiple angles. Keep up the great work!
The 'Caspian Reports' are generally excellent. However this one adds little detail to what has already been broadly covered
I gave it a 'Thumbs Up', but I hope there might be a sequel on 'AUKUS' that goes beyond what was presented here.
And factually wrong on some points such as Australia needing to develop an indigenous nuclear industry. The whole point of the sub deal is that they DON’T need to do so because technology has now reached a point where the subs have a sealed reactor never needing to be refueled. Please correct me if wrong.
@@hair2050 That is what has ben represented - no supporting nuclear equipment or facilities.
I'm no nuclear expert. But it would not surprise me if there's a little 'fine print' on this, such as specialized test equipment, components for dealing with potential emergencies, etc.
@@gregparrott personally I hope that it is just the opening for modern nuclear that in my opinion Australia needs. A bunch of the as yet non existent sealed mini nuclear reactors along with decent charging infrastructure for car charging and Australia can drastically reduce its oil imports and in one fowl swoop improve the balance of payments, reduce emissions, and last but not least get rid of the most dangerously exposed aspect of its defense, to stream of tankers. With an ever growing Chinese navy it would be very easy to starve Australia of oil in short order. And hello NZ, you are just crumbs once Australia falls. Wake up.
@@hair2050 I may be wrong, but as I understand it, these reactors ALREADY exist on one of the U.S. classes of submarines. They are supposedly a 'proven' design.
What you suggested about Australia adopting nuclear power makes sense from the standpoint of dependency on imported oil. But from what I understand of Australian politics, that is way too radical to be accepted anytime soon. An interim alternative would be for Australia to use its coal reserves as a backup and develop means to convert coal into gas via. a coal 'gasification' process. I looked up New Zealand's naval and air defense forces - You're 100% right. They're pathetic
@@gregparrott yes the sealed reactor on the subs exist which is why it was politically doable for Australia to go down the nuke path. Domestically however not yet as far as I know.
This man produces better content than 90% of news channels
You are always so spot on in your reporting. Keep up this excellent work!!
FAUKUS?
AFUKUS?
... Ah, how about
FUKUSA I'm sure french would love that name
That’s why François is not part of the treaty because it would make for a goofy name
😂😂😂
Australia will still have to pay over $1 billion to France for breach of contract. That's a pretty penny for the Australian tax payer.
Almost as much as we paid for Dan Andrews cancellation of the east west link in Melbourne…
@@HotPlates. But just heard of a new contract between France and Australia. Maybe, not all is lost after all.
Meh, they got 2 billion for doing nothing over the last 4-5 years.
Another great analysis! Great work.
Great video! I'd seen a few others about this issue, but this video did a way better job of looking at the nuances.
France snatched Au-Jp submarine deal before this.
SMH.
No it was German-Aus deal
And it was not a deal as it was not signed...
BS. Australia chose the French OVER the Japanese.
Japan should not even be allowed to build weapons after what it did during WW2. The same goes for Germany and Italy.
@@clementl.9566 may I encourage you to buy a new calendar.
The 1940s have passed
A couple of points: The contract between France and Australia was writted with exit gates at each stage; Australia chose to use the legitimate exit for various reasons - delays, substantial cost over runs, a leaking of the plans by Naval, the sub builder: The contract is a business issue, and will be resolved:
The meeting with Indonesia was cancelled for other reasons days before the new sub deal / AUKUS was announced: New Zealand has not participated in ANZUS since they chose to ban nuclear ships in their waters; And New Zealand is seen as too close / too reliant on China, but NZ would certainly need Australian support in the event of any military action against them: Biden had approached France and Germany to join the AUKUS pact, and both declined. Macron thought he would be leading a regional allince, not falling in behind the US / UK - an ultimate humiliation following Brexit:
Finally, China has reacted in no uncertain terms, with a spokesman declaring that Australia has now lost the 'privelage' of not being a nuclear target; the bellicose threats from China over the last 18 months have put Australia into a very difficult position - be passive and accept the threats, or strengthen our borders and provide some regional protection: Australia has already started talks with the US re leasing nuclear powered subs until the new fleet is ready.
⬜ SERCH ADITYA RATHORE-HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
@@natashagupta4691 I don't think people will be flocking to some Indian dude's channel for rational insight on geopolitics.
Your politicians have far more strategic wisdom than our Ctrl+C --》 Ctrl+V Phd-thesis politicians. They are a bunch of cowards.
Go Oz, boxing kangaroo.
Do you have the source about Biden aproaching Germany/France please ? i'd like to read more on it
Also for the rupture of the contract the problem for us (the french) was not the breaking of the contract itself but the fact that it was done in a secret way and that a few weeks before, Aussies were still talking about the french deal, it"s clearly not a way to treat an "ally"
The part about new Zealand is incredibly wrong, in fact Australia China trade is 25% of Australias total while nz China trade is 23%.
more land in Australia is owned by Chinese citizens and companies than anywhere else in the five eyes.
New Zealand has always taken a be as neutral as possible while still remaining in the west stance the cold War. Our forgein policy is Co operate with Australia in South pacific and address issues outside of it through multilateral bodies such as the UN. Australia and the US have known and accepted this since the 1960s despite what the Australian press would tell you.
Trumps withdrawal from the TPPA literally forced aus and nz into china's economic orbit, the military pact is one thing, but money talks loudest, its not stupid of nz to lay low until a new stable export partner arises in their home region
The Aus had to make a decision based on their own national interests. Sounds like there were delays from the French so you can't blame a country for looking out for their own
Yet now the submarine will be delivered later, at a more expensive cost. I don't think the reason Australia stopped working with France was because of delays that were expected, but instead to get closer to the US.
@@_Athanase_ Australia is already super close to the US. Maybe alot change geostrategically from when the contract was signed. France needs to grow up especially pulling ambassadors' that's a bitch move
@@_Athanase_ later and possibly at greater cost, though arguably for a greater effect.
Nuclear submarines have always been preferred for Australia's location, but never achievable due to the sensitivity of nuclear technology and the magnitude of the cost in developing it locally. To join what has essentially been a US-UK club with extra geopolitical advantages, is a time and cost saver for such a military edge.
France may have offered nuclear submarines - they likely did, and with a boat that has a smaller crew as well - but it would likely have come at greater cost. Growing delays and ballooning costs did it no favours.
That is the summary. Until things play out, of course.
Either way both of them are us lapdogs
@@jacobcuntington2540 a country doesn't "grow up" and isn't "a child". The moves are important signs in diplomacy, prelude for negotiation.
Thank you for this video, it was more insightful than reports on french media.
Once again such an insightful video! Thank you for your great work
Wouldn't have hurt to tell the French before the press conference
Exactly, it's so incredibly brazen, it's almost on purpose...
@@tobiasL1991 of course it is
Thank You for the informative presentation.
Very interesting analysis, thank you!
Greetings from Sweden. I hope that EU will maintain a good relationship and trade with Australia.
If France thinks that Australia breached the contract, then the contract should be reviewed by an independent court.
I think we should have France’s back. Today someone fucked with France and if we let that go, tomorrow they’ll know they can also fuck with Finland or any other country. If the reaction is more coherent, people will be less likely to fuck with Europe that they’d be to fuck with “x small country”.
It’s possible to back from a deal, but to do it in that way shows complete absence of consideration. They could have dealt with it in many different ways and this one was the worst one.
@@trezapoioiuy France knew for 2 years Australia wasn't happy with the progress but didn't improve it at all. Given they were happy to make Australia wait months for deliverables, what's the problem with them waiting to learn the deal is cancelled?
@Johnny Rep Stupidity times ten. Stop thinking like a child.
@@IanGerritsen Do you really think that kind of childish reasoning have any place in international business?
If I behaved like Australia at my job, my counter parts would sue me in a heartbeat, and rightfully so.
And all those arguments seem shallow since Australia will have to wait a decade More now, pay a lot more, and not having anywhere close to 60% of the contract value made domestically.
Australia even has to refit their already built infrastructure for these nuclear subs.
I will say like Australia's previous PM; This was a hatchet job by Morris.
@@benghazi4216 Nah Maclolm Turnbull made a shitty deal
I would be more worried for the French to keep up the supply of munitions in the time of war even if they were willing. They ran out of supplies in the Libyan civil war.
They refused to supply parts for our Mirage fighters during the Vietnam war.
Why is that a problem when the Australians demanded that Lockheed Martin did the weapon systems in this French sub deal?
@@Minchya Many countries objected to that ridiculous slaughter of civilians the US perpetrated in Vietnam, and for what?..
Australia mandated that the French submarines be converted to US weapons technology. Therefore weapon supplies would have been US obligations. I hope you can imagine now were the increasing project costs came from.
@@benghazi4216 Bitch France was the country that got the US involved in Vietnam in the first place.
On top of that, put yourself in Australia's boots; if and when the war with China starts France decides not to take a strong stance, what'll stop them from just not giving them the spare parts? whether its moral or not doesn't matter, its in Australia's best interests to go for the deal with the fewest liabilities.
Thank you for your work!
As usual great analysis. Thank you
,,Canberra torpedoed the deal" Double facts.
"Yet, on the surface, the deal made sense" another shining example of brilliant prose Shirvan.