Conditional Probabilities, Clearly Explained!!!
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- čas přidán 2. 08. 2024
- One the most fundamental concepts in Probability, Statistics and Bayesian Statistics is Conditional Probability. In this StatQuest, we walk you through what Conditional Probabilities are and how to calculate them using raw data as well as unconditional probabilities. BAM!!!
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statquest.org/video-index/
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0:00 Awesome song and introduction
1:11 Filling in a contingency table
4:45 Calculating conditional probabilities from counts
8:00 Calculating conditional probabilities from unconditional probabilities.
#StatQuest #Probability #Bayesian
NOTE: Conditional probabilities can be written two ways: a "long" version and a "short" version. In this video I use the long version (because it's easier for me to read)...
P(A and B | B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
...however, the short version is commonly used...
P(A | B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
Both mean the same thing, in other words: P(A and B | B) = P(A | B). The short version implies the "and B" part.
Support StatQuest by buying my book The StatQuest Illustrated Guide to Machine Learning or a Study Guide or Merch!!! statquest.org/statquest-store/
Your version is much easier for non-statisticians like me :)
@@exploringdiversity572 bam!
omg this cleared up so much confusion i had from reading my text book where they were using the shorthand
I love how I need a video that seems designed for 7 year olds to understand my uni course.
Great vid thanks
Glad it was helpful!
I like the style. It's fun and nostalgic
this is secondary school level maths
bam!
I always thought I was incapable of learning math, but it had always intrigued me. I just discovered what was missing; a good teacher. Thank you very much.
bam!
I'm in the same boat as you man, love this channel
In India due to competition for engineering entrance exam teacher majorly focus on question types rather than concept in depth. Im glad there is a place where people learn for fun not just for competition, also appreiciate teachers like you who can turn subjects into magic. Keep up the good work! From now on I'm permanent on this channel. You are the best!
Thank you very much!
Soda and Candy > Mechanical engineering degree. Thank you it was very helpful!
BAM! :)
I should of paid you instead of my useless lecturer at university! This is so much more useful thank you!
Glad I could help!
Very nice video for sure. Conditional prob is one of the topics students feel the most difficulty when they start studying for stat! Great job!
Thank you! :)
Never thought that to understand conditional probabilities is this easy … thanks prof 🎯
bam! :)
I "stumbled" upon the contingency table method many years ago when trying teach myself the basics of probability. This approach is really the only approach for developing a solid understanding of conditional probability, as well as joint and marginal probability. I've never seen anyone present it this way and I'm so glad to see it here! Just more evidence that Josh Starmer is an absolute master instructor.
BAM! Thank you very much! :)
you know, me too.
Hey this table reminds me of confusion matrix from a ML classification problem
this is how i wish people taught stuff, i really hope these ways of learning statistics get the recognition they deserve! please keep it up !!!!
Thank you!
Thank you Josh & the team. I'm so grateful I've found your channel. You make me truly love statistics!
Glad you enjoy it!
Logical explanation, precision and genuineness - your way of teaching exemplifies these essential qualities. Thanks so much Josh for these great lessons. Invaluable effort!
Wow, thank you!
A 6 years old can understand this. That's genius
Thanks!
This is one of the best explanations of absolutely anything I've ever seen and heard. Well done. Subscribed.
Awesome, thank you!
I love these classes. They are so easy to understand. Thks you for sharing with us!
Thank you very much! :)
Awesome. I always come here to get my doubts clear. Love the way you teach. Lots of BAM!!!
Thanks!
Great video!
I never saw the "long version" to write conditional probabilities before but it's better to understand. Very intuitive!
Yes, I like it more, too.
THANK YOU! I've really been struggling to get an intuitive understanding of conditional probability and this has helped so much!
Glad it helped!
I love how the videos comprehend complex topics with easy-to-understand explanations. Thanks for all your effort :)
You're very welcome!
Today I discovered your channel and it is truly a gem. As a EEE student who tries to make sense of subject of probability and neural network stuff, I believe I will benefit a lot from your work and be thankful for rest of my life. Especially statistics is challenging as things get messy a lot and scary/unintuitive equations with confusing notations start to appear. I did not look at all of your videos yet, but I hope that you did statistics less scary for those like me. My best regards
Awesome! Here's a page that lists all of my videos (and playlists etc): statquest.org/video-index/
Great job Josh!!!!! This is such a clear and precisely laid out video perfect for my students.
bam!
You are literally saving me from my statistics exam! Thank you so much, your explanations are brilliant and you are really making me focus with your simple and funny ways. Thank you again!
Good luck! :)
I get a dopamine rush every time this man says bam
bam!
Awesome explanation. Thanks to you and Triple Bam members
Glad you liked it! BAM! :)
I FUCKING HATE PROBABILITIES SO MUCH I ACTUALYL GAVE UP 3 TIMES LEARNING THE COURSE (THE COURSE IS HIGH QUALITY IM JUST VERY STUPID) IM SO SO SO GLAD IM STARTING TO GET IT FROM YOUR VIDEOS JOSH. YOU'RE DEFINITELY THE #1 GUY ON CZcams.
thanks! :)
You are a GOD of simple explanations
Thanks!
Exceptional explanation... I'm Completely in love with your teaching style
Thank you!
Struggled with this topic literally for years! You solved my problem within just 10 min.! 🎉
Bam! :)
Incredibly well-explained. Thank you!
Thank you! :)
Thank you so much! This is the best video on conditional probability on internet.
Thank you!
This is the best video explaining conditional probability. Hands down.
Thanks!
Hi Josh, I am a long time fan of your channel and all of the shameless self-promotion has guilted me into buying one of your study guides (LDA). They seem great, a nice supplement to your videos. Though I think you would benefit greatly from stripping down the ordering process, I mean for online purchases almost noone asks for complete addresses, phone numbers and names anymore. I fought very hard with myself to finish it and parting with that information, and I succeeded simply because of being so grateful for the videos you provide.
You'd probably sell a lot more of these if you just ask for an email. Like most. Cheers
Thanks for the advice! I'll see what I can do to simplify the ordering process.
You're incredible. You make everything seem so easy
Wow, thank you!
This is amazing way of explanation!
Thanks!
Super easy ti understand! Thanks alot
Glad it helped!
Thank you! Great content always🤩
My pleasure!
Thank you SO MUCH for clarifying that AB = A and B, when A and B are events. I get confused because XY is literally multiplication when X and Y are random variables. It can be doubly confusing because both events and random variables (even though they are different types) can be passed into P(), the probability function. Function overloading is a thing in computer programming, but I’m shocked to see it in math. Also, the implied A and B in P(A | B) is a lifesaver, many times over. BTW, understanding the tables in this video is pivotal in grasping marginal distributions, Baye’s Theorem, and joint probability distributions - it feels like I’m getting the other three concepts for free!
Triple bam!!! :)
Thanks for this explanation.....It really help me to grasp this topic....
Bam!
Well explained. Bit long but makes the concept clear as possible. A big THANK YOU Josh.
Thanks!
i love you this actually helped so much
Thanks!
Best explanation ever. Thank you! ❤️
Thank you! :)
Happy Guru Purnima Sir, So blessed that this channel exists. ❤️🙏
Thank you! And thank you for supporting StatQuest! BAM! :)
❤️❤️
This was amazing and fun. Thank you!
Glad you enjoyed it!
And BAM! I subscribed….such a clear explanation
Awesome, thank you!
Incredible lecture!! Bamm😀
Thank you!
That's a great one.thank you😊
Glad you liked it!
Great video, perfect explanation, marvelous song, as always :D
I would love to see a video about Generalized Linear Models( other than logistic).
Thanks and I'll keep that topic in mind.
👍👍👍
So bloody good!
Thanks!
Conditional probability : Decoded. BAM !!! Tbh Some of your videos ( Very few actually. For example p-value 😁) were not very clear to me ( Well that's just me ! ) in the first instance but I digested through them somehow. But with little study & focus or just give a break for a while, the 2nd or 3rd look at your video makes the concept super clear to me and I don't need to look elsewhere. Thanks for making such videos and making statistics/probability easier.
I'm glad you are able to understand the concepts.
Thanks a lot. Clearly explained as you stated.
Thank you!
You're the statistics buddha! The analogies and the calming voice!
Thanks!
"statsquatch" I love it 😂
Also I guess I never put together that you could use the probabilities to calculate conditional probabilies, super helpful
BAM! :)
This helped understand c prob. I am taking a mandatory into to stat class with no math experience and passion. Thanks
Good luck!
😭😭😭😭thanks a lot😭😭😭god bless you, u are doing a noble job, may you get all the riches, love and happiness in the world
Thank you very much! :)
Bam!! , what a bam person to explain everything about statistics so bamly!!
Thanks!
Bamks!
Excellent video..again ! So good to be hit by the triple bam !!! 😁
Hooray! :)
Your way of teaching ! Bam!
Thanks!
Finally, I understand this. BAM!!!!
Bam!
Very well explained as usual!! BTW, do you have any plans for making videos on stochastic calculus topics like Brownian motion, Ito integral, martingale measures etc. If so, I am looking forward to them.
I'll keep those topics in mind.
👍👍👍👍
amazing googleplex BAM! Man you did it again. BRAVO
Wow, thanks!
Great job josh you are my favorite teacher !! , can you think about making a video about Multicollinearity? bam
I'll keep that in mind.
SUPERB explanation... BAAAM !!!!!
Thanks!
amazing! the best!!
Thank you! :)
Hundred Bam!! Great explanation as always
Could you put the playlist link in the description, it will help us a lot, thanks.
Which playlist are you asking about?
Wow. Great explanation with nice song ❤️❤️
Thanks a lot 😊!
@@statquest welcome sir 🙏🏻
I was looking for sth like this recently, thanks for somehow read my mind XD (I guess some kinda probability?? BAM!
BAM! :)
This channel is the bible of " Making 'Understanding Statistics' Easy !"
bam! :)
The people demand a Montecarlo Simulations StatQuest!!!
That would be nice.
I'll keep that in mind. We may get to something like it when I cover bayesian statistics.
That could be nice
BAMMM!!!!
Great work
Can you make video about bayesian classifier because it's depending on conditional probability
I've already done that. Here's the link: czcams.com/video/O2L2Uv9pdDA/video.html
First, I'll admit I had "Do you love orange soda?" from Keenan and Kel in the back of my mind. That said, this video has been immensely helpful, thank you!
:)
Your channel is amazing, I wish I had discovered it earlier! Would you ever consider making the slides available for sale? I would absolutely buy them.
I have some of them for sale here: statquest.org/statquest-store/
I GET IT NOW THANK U SO MUCH
bam! :)
although that i calculate conditional probability during college, i cannot get the concept of it leaving a gap in my stat knowledge...
i stumbled in your video and i have a basic understanding about it. im just need a more examples regarding conditional probability to fully master this concept...
Thanks Josh for your videos and hoping for more topics about stats and data analysis.
I'm glad my video was helpful! :)
Awesome! BAM!!!
:)
This is how every tutorial should be!
Thanks!
best video ever !
:)
amazing!!!!
Thanks!
Thank you so much for this video! It saves my life hahaha
Thanks!
thank you, uncle bam!
My pleasure!
"I hate using abbreviations"
And I love you for that
bam!
good job
Thanks!
Beautiful ❤
Thank you! :)
Thank you so much...Now I cleared. 😁🥰🥰
bam!
Bam! I like the way you teach.....keep up!....Bam Bam!😅
Thank you very much! BAM! :)
Excellent excellent excellent
Many many thanks!
Josh , Please start a series for mathematics concepts for machine learning. Such as probability, linear algebra, statistics, calculus etc.. It'll great help for us.
I have a bunch of statistics videos here: statquest.org/video-index/
It's interesting notation that you keep the superfluous condition on the left side of the pipe. I.e. using p(c=0 and s=1 | s=1) instead of p(c=0 | s=1). Do you find students understand it better this way?
Yes. To me it is much clearer.
After 4:40, I cried "that's enough" because it was relentless!!
bam
So cool!
bam!
@@statquest💥
Good one Josh. Any plans of making videos on "Time series Models" ?
One day! :)
love it
Thanks!
Hi Josh! I've been working with DEseq2 a lot. Is dispersion shrinkage on your TODO list for statquest? I realize it's a little more of a niche topic for bioinformatics than broadly applicable tho
I'll keep it in mind.
Because of you, I knew this Concept "BAM" 😹😸
bam!
Quadra BAMMMM ! ITS now clearly cleared in my mind
It's not clear? What time point, minutes and seconds, was confusing?
@@statquest sorry sir , I wish to write now but due to my mistake it become not .
great!
Thanks!
👍👍👍
Any chance you could post a video on when to run regular linear regression vs. time series ARIMA?
I'll keep that in mind.
Omg, I love this so much 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
:)
Josh is the best
Thanks!
Yeh!
Would love to see a video about KL divergence.
Me too and I hope to cover it sometime soon.
Hi!! could you please make a statquest about self organizing maps?
I'll keep that in mind.