Why Everton are better than you think
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After four games of the Premier League season Everton sit in the relegation zone with only 1 point. They’ve only scored two goals. And last season they only just survived the drop. So Everton are pretty bad, right?
Well Jon Mackenzie has crunched the numbers, and has found reasons for Toffees fans to be positive.
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#Everton #EFC #PremierLeague - Sport
Jon is the Sean Dyche of Tifo for sure, as an Everton fan I love that someone saw how many chances we created with no ST to finish. Beto to come in and real wingers like Harrison and McNeil to come back si gonna be key for us
How shite will it be opening a brand new stadium in the Championship??? And you know it.
@@ReidGameX HAHAHA goood one mate HAHAHAH "nEw StAdiUm In ThE cHaMpIoNsHip". Just told the missus haha brilliant! :)
JJ does a better Sean Dyche impression
If they can't finish those many chances then they're bad. Bad at finishing to be specific.
@@KAV0151 I didn’t have any qualms as an American Liverpool fan until you lot showed up, puffing up your chest like being relegated this and the last several years isn’t a real thing. Come back to earth lad.
Posting this before Arsenal head to Goodison park? LOL. *Nervous.
Hope they beat you guys 😂
I'll say it again. Goodison is trash and you'll be opening a new venue in the Championship next year. I wanted to come see a Merseyside Derby next year but that aint fuckin happening
@@dimitryanyanwu7681 G.Jesus record against Everton to the rescue 😁
That's absolutely what I was about to say when I saw the thumbnail 😭😭
Right? This guy especially hates on Arsenal.
Everton aren’t “rubbish”. They’re just serial under-performers. This squad of players should not be fighting relegation. On paper, there are definitely at least 3 teams worse than them, and if they have their opening season in their new stadium as a Championship team, it will be an unmitigated, complete and utter disaster.
It honestly isn't a good squad. They're just lucky that the promoted teams this year are extremely poor. Of the teams that were already in the league I'd say Everton have the weakest squad barring maybe Wolves who've had the transfer window from hell.
Everton is a good team with poor training infrastructure - no matter who the coach is, they've always played in this extremely improvised manner that's a decade behind the current trends. Even Ancelotti struggled in Everton
@@areebsiddiqui758Bournemouth and Brentford, especially without Tony, also don't have great squads on paper, but both have a clear identity with players in roles that suit them so they get the most out of the squad, unlike Everton which is less than the sum of its parts
@@otto_jk Mbuemo and Wissa have stepped up in Toney's absence. Brentford are absolutely fine. And Thomas Frank is an excellent manager.
Bournemouth have done some great business over the summer and brought in a progressive forward thinking manager. Their squad is clearly better than Everton.
In terms of pure quality Everton are comfortably bottom 5 in the league along with Wolves and the promoted teams.
@@areebsiddiqui758 we are talking about the quality of the squad on paper, Everton's squad is a lower middle table one in market value.
It's not about the individual quality of the players but the lack of cohesion and purpose with players being bought which results in for example a quality wing back Mykolenko sitting on the bench in favour of ancient Ashley Young because Dyche has no use for him.
Finally a video actually explaining instead just straight up criticising saying we're down
Given you say that the data at this time of the season is too noisy to draw any conclusions, why then do you draw so many conclusions?
speculating is fun? it's also his job?
The data is too noisy to make accurate projections, but his main argument is that Everton is playing better than it seems, and their numbers indicate that
I love this content. I wish Everton well. I hope they stay in the Premier League. The premier league needs clubs like Everton. I am not an Everton fan by the way. I am a Villa fan,
Everton, Villa, Wolves, Burnley, OG gang
Respect to Villa, another massive club with a storied history. Good to see you guys mucking about at the top of the table with the rich kids
Some of the most comprehensive use of footballing data I’ve seen on this channel and on the internet. Brilliant video.
Everton just need quality attackers. In the past, Everton have always done better with good attackers. Lukaku, Mcgeady, Mirallas and Barkley got these guys to Champions League playoffs and Europa League. Even Rooney brought back some form. It’s just been so damn long since they’ve had a good forward line.
Mirallas man, my favourite player. Had the end product to go with the flashy skills and dribbling.
McGeady did literally nothing in an Everton shirt what are you on about?
@@calhoumi I thought he'd be great because he was great on Fifa lol. I was only like 11 then.
@@sukhdevr3489 haha I also had him on FIFA tbf, though the longer I've been into football the more I realise FIFA ratings are not a good indication of real player quality
@@calhoumi he was a part of the attack. I watched him play, he was dreadful. But the fact that they had only 3 of their front 4 and they did so well just shows how impactful a good attacking system, at least, can be for them.
Honestly Sean Dyche coached a 3 -1 two home games in a row - without a striker. Even the Villa game was clearly a series of errors, rather than necessarily bad set ups.
Everton are probably coming 14th or so, but hard to gauge where/when it will click or individual errors drop points
Also, the Sean Dyche patented mid block is anchoredby a slightly waning Idrissa Gueye, often accompanied by non defensive minded players around him, leading to an unsure defence
100% correct .You know your football .Hopefully Dyche can address the defensive set up .Thank god we now have a few goals in the team .
Probably should get another CDM besides IG stop the full backs from making forward runs and play one striker atleast 😭
Amazing work you guys are doing, the way you bring the underlying data to argue points we see and don’t see with our regular eyes is amazing!!! I love it!!
This is up there with ye're best videos for the breadth of metrics used to provide context. Particularly liked the quadrant graph showing good/bad attack/defense as that's something I've always wondered. Would be interesting to see that for the top of the table and see how Fergies "attack wins you match's, defense wins you titles" addage hold up.
They´re attack is a lot better, they just got Beto, plus Danjuma, Jack Harrison, McNeil and even Calvert. There´s goals here, unlike last season.
I mean, they literally struggled against the team at the bottom of league 2. We have to be serious, they're as bad as we think
For Everton to move forward, they have to let Calvert-Lewin go, either on loan or transfer. Because they can’t constantly be weighed down by him being injured and not having the hometown player in the squad when they can do way better without him in the squad. Everton could raid the Portuguese, Scottish and Japanese market and find the players they need in attack and defence for cut-price.
I see you sneaking the Scottish market in there you cheeky sod 😉😂
calvert lewin is from sheffield, he's not a hometown player
nah they just need to learn to cope without him. This is why they signed 2 center forwards, 3, if you count Danjuma who can fill in, and got rid of Maupay who just wasn't working at all. DCL can still be there, just not necessarily being the lord and savior all the time, especially since he does tend to get injured
@@maciejbala477 From what I've seen of Beto, I think he looks like he could be competent enough to score a decent amount of goals, maybe 10 for the season. If DCL is fit for a reasonable run of games, and if - and it's a big if - he also gets back to that same form he had before, then Everton could be comfortably out of trouble this season.
The problem is their low conversion rate, so having Beto and DCL for 15 games should improve on the teams level from last season - it's just whether that's enough 🤷
The thing is, when dcl is fit, he changes the Everton performance entirely. Beto looks more of a dcl mold than maupay, so hopefully he can take the load of off dcl.
Having players who can't finish good chances seems like a bad quality for a team to have, not a "secretly good" one.
I think under Dyche Everton seem to get a lot of set piece chances from very close to the goal that the models rate highly that they never seem to score. I think the models are overvaluing these chances, especially because some of the players (Onana in particular) are good at winning the battle for position and getting to the ball but bad at actually make clean contact and directing it. Lots of balls off shoulders, headers off the tops of heads, kicks off the ankle/shin, etc
Well you got it right they beat brentford 3-1. Hopefully they will get confidence from it.
The issue becomes more dangerous than just statistics if the underperformance continues. Because it will effect morale and confidence of the players and that will make underperforming even worse. Because that was the biggest problem with Everton the last few years. Players just checking out of the season.
Before the video starts I'm going to state that if I see 4 games of xG difference being used as a representative sample I'm going to dislike the video
This exactly level of stat analysis that'd fail an academic test
but they've only play 4 😭
I guess at least they sort of acknowledged it with the noise thing but yeah very unserious
Everton may be playing well enough to eventually finish mid-table. But it’s not that unlikely they get penalised for breaking financial fair play rules. Can they score enough points to survive a points deduction.
Great walk through analytics. The possible issues with relying too much on numbers. Multiple arguments in both directions. Quality video.
Unfortunately, their success ultimately depends on the number of points at the end of season.
Analytics can help flesh out the story of whether things are ok or whether it’s time to panic on top of the eye test.
Sean Dyche is a top coach.
Getting players like DCL, McNeil, Harrison all back and contributing will be massive!
DCL is broken never gonna be back consistently to be good, Harrison isn't that good useless trying to keep leeds up. McNeil I'll give you but even so this videos premise holds on an xG of a 0.2 difference against bottom half teams and so early on in the season it's impossible to tell. Frankly ridiculous claiming anything. Everton are on a downward trend in a relegation battle again
@@jonny4649this aged like milk and will continue to do so 😂
@@hunsler1006 You've won 1 game in the league, the fact you think that's significant shows how little standard you have. Relegation mindset. Im not saying it won't turn around the gap between championship sides is huge. Saying that you couldn't beat Shef. Very early to tell, but which teams are worse other than the newly promoted sides? I know DCL scored but you must be kakking your pants he doesn't get injured lol
@@jonny4649 haha or your take was so bad if took a week to be wrong. I'm not even saying it because of 2 good results away from home. I'm saying it because out of the 8 games this season, only 2 have actually been a poor performance.
And I rate Harrison more than you do.
Honestly, no the three newly promoted teams look awful, after them I worry for Wolves and Bournemouth.
Not really DCL didn't really have any injury problems before 2 seasons ago. Last season medical professionals have said was caused by being rushed back and playing through injury rather than recovering properly. Neither of those things have happened under Dyche neither of these have happened so, no, I'm not really concerned more than any other player (apart from him obviously being one of Everton's best players)
@@hunsler1006 What did I say that was wrong? Also I've watched Harrison a lot he's very hit and miss. Disappears in any tough games. But who knows he may do better for you if anything I hope he does so his value goes up. It's not exactly a "wrong take" Everton have been in relegation battles for 2 seasons and have a manager who's previously relegated. Loaning players who got relegated. And currently only won once. If they're nowhere near relegation 10 plus games in then call it a bad take. Im just analysing what I've seen/know so far. But like I said it's very early to be so sure.
xG has been a disaster for football analysys.
Not really. It’s just a data point which takes analysis beyond the ‘they’re great going forward’ eye test
Really love the data and viz used in this video. Would be nice if you can do something similar for whether Liverpool have indeed turned a corner this season compared to the last
The issue is the paucity of data - one thing they didn't emphasize enough, is how easy it is to skew 4 games' worth of stats. Everton's stats in this video look ok - until you look at the teams they played against - Villa are the only one you'd expect to even be a top 12 team (most people seem to be predicting 7th or 8th for Villa, but I actually think that may be too high even) - and 2 teams most people are expecting to be in the bottom 4. So it should be easier to do better in those 4 games - and because it is only 4 games, 1 good game can much more easily skew things. If you look at the next 4 (including the Arsenal game) - Arsenal at home they haven't actually lost in 5 years (before this weekend - so already a negative), Liverpool away they usually lose, but their other two are again against Luton and Brentford - a 20th type team and a 15th. To show how easily the stats can be swayed by 1 game - take the home game this weekend at Arsenal and add that on. All of a sudden, their xG/90 goes from 1.8 top 1.5 (much more similar to last season), and although their xGA goes down a little to 1.6 (largely thanks to the disallowed goal not counting), it means their Expected goal Difference goes back negative.
So after 8 games, they'll have only played 2 teams in the likely top 8 (and only 1 other, in Villa, who you'd expect to get top 10) - and one of them at home against a team they actually beat last year. If they don't win both Luton and Brentford, then they'll have at best 5 points from that very easy run of 8 games - the next will be West Ham/Palace/Forest/Burnley away and Brighton/United/Newcastle/Chelsea - a much more difficult run (certainly the 4 homes games, and the first 2 away games you'd think they would struggle against).
@@scottv1600 I agree that data from 4 match days isn't conclusive evidence of anything. Would love to see these sort of videos as the season goes on as the storytelling with data was really engaging. I thought they did try to highlight the limitations. In any case, hopefully such videos later in the season would be more informative
Really good analysis in this video, presenting points with the data and using the 'what can't be measured' aspects for arguments in both directions.
Holy! Think I’ve been waiting for more Everton content for about 2 years! Nice one
So much research goes into these videos I appreciate it.
Chelsea and Everton, according to John, are better than we think they are... They'll both heavily under perform this season and John at the end of the season will say "they'll be better next season". They both lack serious quality.
as an arsenal fan I did not want to see this video title before the game 😞
Realy enjoyed this. much improved
this video aged like a fine wine actually
Lol this video reminded me that Ancelotti was the manager of Everton just 2 years ago
your charts are awesome
respect for the work behind those
Have come back to this after Luton beat them 😂
Brilliant video, probably the best use of data and analytics I've seen on CZcams.
I've never seen someone make graphs and statistics exciting, but you managed it!
I love graphs and statistics!
Jon, this was an excellent video. Thank you! More data-based content, please!
The internet needs less autism, not more
This is an excellent video 👏🎉
What a detailed video
At the end of the last season, they were performing at a midtable level and avoided the relegation even though, at some point of the season, it seemed impossible. For the last 6 games, they were 11th in the form table. In the current xPTS table, they are 10th (just between 9th Man Utd and 11th Newcastle). This should show that Dyche is actually doing very good job at the club but they need to start scoring and their defense needs to step up. They are the biggest underachievers in the league.
Very good. And the latest result is very supportive of your view.
Everton’s main problem is defence, though they have experienced PL defenders the quality is relatively poor, not to mention they don’t even have an assured CB pairing, though Branthwaite coming through is a positive. I understand the position they’re at in terms of funds but Ashley Young at LB in 2023 😬
I agree, they probably wanted a low risk PL proven guy but still a proven foreign LB for £5-10 million would've made a world of difference.
Ashley Young has played well.
@@TheCompleteGuitarist Wrong.
Even by TIfo IRL's standard, this video has some dense stats and insights.... Loved it 💯
In-depth analysis.👍
Suggestion: Why not compare Everton's performance against the bottom half this season to Sean Dyche's Everton (exclude Lampard's Everton) against bottom half last season?
Brilliant analysis!
This Gladbach Kit🔥🔥🔥
Love the Gladbach shirt
first minutes into the clip had me eyeing that kit, is that Borussia Monchegblach's??
I always fear for a team when they are improving on a managers weak spot but getting worse on a managers strength
Baseball nerds basically invented mathematical analysis in sports. If you told them you were making any sort of opinion on numbers based on a sample size of FOUR matches, they'd laugh you out of the room.
Firstly,Frank Lampard played Doucoure as a defensive midfielder,now he's been pushed up he's been scoring some great and important goals,then you look at the injuries at the start of the season,Mcneil,big Dom,Harrison,and the new players still bedding in,Everton's record is the same as Chelsea's yet nobody is calling them relegation fodder!
Regarding the Danjuma effort against Sheff Utd .... he's been in the team 5 mins!!!
One editorial tip. Can you just put the picture of the data under John when hes the main focus of the camera shot. Seeing his hands fade in and out was alittle distracting. Great video otherwise!
The concept of a 'model blind spot' is very interesting - was it ever revealed *why* Liverpool overperformed their expected numbers so much in 2020, what was the blind spot? Why or how could there be a blind spot with Everton? One assumes the biggest issue would be quality players, or a really confident squad regularly taking chances that others wouldn't. Or underperformances where fear grips a team and they keep muffing opportunities.
FWIW I think a major factor towards the business end of the season is the crowd affecting the players performance in big moments. My theory is that was why Southampton kept avoiding relegation, because the crowd had confidence they would do it and, to be honest, didn't care as much as some of the big northern teams. I can see this being a big issue for the likes of Newcastle, the crowd care so much and they haven't won anything for such a long time, it becomes a self-fulfiling prophecy.
With Everton its been 4 games and we know how skewed and inaccurate stats from a small sample size can be. Another big factor was exceptional opposition goalkeeping performances in a couple of Everton's games. Leno and Sa were outstanding and the only reason Fulham and Wolves managed to win against Everton.
I think their main "blind spot" is their poor training infrastructure compared to teams like Brighton who may not have quality players, but the players perform well regardless because the way they're trained (regardless of manager)
I miss Carlo smoking a stogie after the Blues won the Derby in Spring 21. Someone needs to get the German Shepherd a ticket to every match.
Yes, Everton's underlying numbers are not bad, but Everton will need to hope their results on the pitch turn around somewhat soon. This is because they still lost 3 of the 4 games, which is by all intents and purposes that is relegation form. One of their losses came against Wolves a fellow relegation rival.
great video
Where can i see that xg predictive accuracy chart?
Think Everton have proved themselves over the past couple of seasons is that they're the worst club in the Premier League not to be relegated.
last season they released a dyche video and we lost. This season again just before our game😭😭😭
Given that Everton's opponents so far have included Fulham, Wolves and Sheffield United, I'm not sure you can conclude that their uptick in underlying numbers is down to them actually playing better. More likely it's just that they've played 3/4 teams who you'd expect to finish in the bottom half.
Would be more interesting to compare their stats from this season to just matches against bottom half finishers last season.
And now I've got to the point in the video where you do exactly that! Thanks 👍
@@ryangriffiths6130😂
2 good away wins since this was posted. Looking good with our better players coming back to full fitness. If we're lucky with injuries we'll hopefully consolidate this season with a midtable finish
So many numbers hurt my head !
I am EFC fan but we played against Wolves Fulham which were badddd. I hope we can score and can say we are not too bad.
Neal Maupay was the model blind spot 😆 (I made this comment before he touched on that)
Posting this right before Everton got sold to a group of investors out of Miami. Hmm
A 12 minute video to say ‘they don’t have to start with Maupay up front anymore’
How on earth did you get that glorious throwback gladbach kit
Please more content on the non tourist clubs
Sean Dyche juicy status: confirmed
Great content as always you big brained beans
The proof is in the pudding. 4 points from 7 games. -6 goal difference. Lost at home to Luton. Yes, they are as bad as they seem.
Let dyche cook
Oof who is wrong now
I’m back to the video after Everton have won 6 of 9 in all competitions 💙💙💙
Since this guy has told us the stats, Everton have turned into Brazil 😳😂
The misuse of xG is out of control on these analysis videos. It measures the chance a given shot has of producing a goal. That’s all it does with accuracy with current models. It doesn’t account for game state and adding up xG over the course of a match deviates from what the stat is actually measuring. Adding it up over the course of a season is just bafflingly silly. Its just poor math run rampant.
Nailed on win for Everton this weekend then 😭
Beto's first home game on Sunday, so lets see how this plays out 😀
Mate, I so hope you’re right! Can you post the expected goals chart again at Christmas? UTFT💙💙💙
To give 'expected' whatevers the respect/disdain it deserves perhaps it would be more fun and humorously more accurate for Everton to be measured by some other stats like 'xms' (expected missed sitters) 'xgh' (expected goalkeeper howlers) and most importantly 'xims' (expected injured model-striker)
Those stats at the start... How can you just present those without context of who they were playing?!? It's only been 4 games
I love this channel however 4 games in, is not a time to be talking about these numbers, they are massively skewed and the sample size is way too small to draw any conclusion thats relevant.
However Everton absolutely do not pass the eye test right now.
I thought, not able to convert xG to real goal simply indicates that your strikers aren't good at shooting.
No we are genuinely awful, from board to academy.
Love the data !!
Better than 19th placed finish 18th perhaps.
Tottenham have better finishers so...
As a Wolves fan I can tell you, this means nothing. You have to perform for the full 90 and Everton just are incapable of doing so, they make one or 2 great chances then the heads dip
Danjuma not passing on that second picture was simply awful when you look at that picture
I gotta watch this video at 0.75 speed damn this dude speaks like his on speed
At 1:10 xpts/90 difference should be +0.4
I wasn't buying this before the video. But points very well made
Nice numbers.. very small dataset so far
Any chance of doing a similar video for Wolves?
Are we looking at the same table?!?
Get me one of these Gladbach kits please.
Everton are dire. This and the "chelsea are not actually bad" video demonstrate john leaning, perhaps, too much on xG and deeper analytics than the eye test. Everton's saving grace is probably how bad Luton and Sheffield are. Burnley have also been very bad this season so far. Given that Everton have already faced two relegation threatening squads, and lost one and drew the other, I wouldn't be so confident in them to suddenly find results. Especially if they're in this position in December and consider moving on from Dyche.
Let Dyche cook.
Yes mate.
comparing a 4 match sample to a whole season is debateable to say the least.the only reason everton will avoid relegetion is that there are some seriously bad teams this year in the league. 30 points might mean avoiding relegation
Posting after playing Arsenal. They are definitely worse than I thought, I feel for Everton fans watching that every week.
Amazing job from Sean dyche, their chance of getting off relegation is 50/50 this season incase McNeil, DCL, Pickford Young picks injury 💙⚽
The title had me thinking it was April fools day nvm