According to KenPom, Only These 7 Teams can win the NCAA Tournament: March Madness Stats
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- čas přidán 7. 06. 2024
- After going through 20+ years of KenPom NCAA data, there are only 7 teams that can win it all in March this year, based off of what past Champions have done
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Really outstanding analytics. Thanks. Subscribed.
I watched this yesterday morning and moved Arizona back in all my brackets. More reluctant on Houston . You have my respect! Let’s go KU/Texas
That means a lot, appreciate the comment
Great info man I had also narrowed down to 7 but I was using Kenpom rankings online didn't know they were post tournament, but I also saw a weird stat that since 04 100% of the national champions were ranked in the top 12 in the week 6 AP poll and if you take that into account it eliminates UCLA and Creighton bringing it to only 5 teams. This video was very helpful thanks 👍
Wow, never heard that stat. Very interesting. Will keep an eye out to see if that holds true this year as well
@@ProfessionalPicks may I ask how you found the pre tournament Kenpom rankings?
pre-tournament Kenpom this year has 7 teams then drop the two from week 12 AP poll and its down to 5. I think you can eliminate Purdue. Kansas statistically has the lowest chance going back to back.. So thats down to 3, Bama, UConn, and Texas.
I like Purdue’s chances just by match-ups more than Texas and Kansas. I also consistently expect Purdue to choke.
Did you do this same analysis last year? On kenpom, you can look at the rankings pre-tournament as well for previous seasons. I’m curious, did North Carolina (8 seed) fall into this equation?
Good Video Sir
best analysis
A few things I would like to add as factors to consider for certain teams beyond statistics:
If it was not for injuries UCLA was probably going to be by champion pick, but Jaylen Clark was crucial to that defense and Adem Bona also being hurt leaves them undersized, with little depth, and reliant on a freshman in Amari Bailey to pick up the slack. They still have tourney experience and their senior core so they should still make the sweet 16 at minimum, but the Elite 8 or Final 4 is probably their ceiling.
Another factor worth considering of course are the coaches behind these teams, do they have good tourney track records? Houston always goes deep (an elite 8 and final 4 run) under Kelvin Sampson in spite of their always weak strength of schedule and with a healthy Marcus Sasser this is easily Sampson's most experienced and talented team so far, so I do not think you can confidently rule out Houston on strength of schedule alone.
UConn's Dan Hurley has never managed to make it out of the first weekend, though this UCONN team is so complete, consistent, and talented that they should break that barrier for him. Still, having them go all the way? Like UCLA, their ceiling is probably Elite 8 or Final 4.
I love Texas statistically but Rodney Terry has basically no tourney experience, so Texas is a major wildcard. Not to mention a brutal second round matchup vs either Texas A&M or Penn State easily the two most underseeded and hottest teams in the tourney. Buzz Williams's Texas A&M (if they can get past Penn State) in particularly is scary as the excel in an area where Texas really struggles, rebounding.
I agree that Purdue is not a team to trust despite statistically looking like a contender I think they are inflated a bit as the Big 10 is simply not anywhere near as good this year as it has usually been. Also teams that heavily rely on a single player is not a great bet for March.
Finally If you go to T-Rank and compare Kansas to other 1 and 2 seed with similar efficiency profiles it very concerning just how many end up failing to even make it past the first weekend. The blowout loss to Texas does not help. barttorvik.com/profile-compare.php?team=Kansas&year=2023&simseed=1&o=4&d=4&tt=4&efg_w=1&oreb_w=1&tov_w=1&ftr_w=1&defg_w=1&doreb_w=1&dtov_w=1&dftr_w=1&threerate_w=1&talent_w=1&exp_w=4&ht_w=1
but UCLA v UConn seems likely so who wins that one? one has injuries the other not a deep tourney experience
@@RedCloudServices IDK, go with what ever you value more. Health or Experience.
@@JWNimble also thanks for your video it’s excellent!
@@RedCloudServices it is not my video. But I am sure the guy that made it appreciates that.
Only problem is that Kenpom doesnt adjust for injuries so that will affect Duke, Tennessee, Houston, UCLA values. Also you have an outlier in a very young Marquette team that has 4 victories against your high value UCONN/Creighton teams and has the best defense in the nation the last 3 games.
Marquette and Duke are young teams with lots of momentum that have rapidly gotten better.
to be clear here... these aren't HIS high value picks. It's not an opinion, it's statistics and historical data not opinion.
@@davidshierling7381
Youre missing my point. Im telling you that the data has some flaws.
@@paulrobertson3079 there's no evidence to support that.
@@paulrobertson3079 I love Marquette and think Duke is one of the hottest teams right now and they both should do well but theres only 5 teams that can win and they are not in that list.
And neither made it out of the first weekend lmao
Love it! My brain wants to throw out SOS with Houston because their roster having so much deep tournament experience should make up for not being pushed during the regular season; my concern is the Sasser injury. It could really be anywhere between totally fine and sitting him was just a precaution, or he reaggravates it after 5 minutes and is done; soft tissue stuff is so unpredictable.
Very well said, I totally agree. But I have to stick with the numbers. You could’ve said the same thing about Gonzaga the last couple years. Throw in the injury and I will not be picking them to win. Doesn’t mean they won’t make a run
Sasser will be fine for the deep run. The names you’ll hear more this weekend are freshman Jarace Walker and Terrance Arceneuax.
I'd go further.... I think people should be looking at teams that have a top 20 defense eliminating Purdue. So my list of teams that can win are UCLA, Bama, UConn, Texas, Kansas and Creighton. Also with UConn and Creighton being lower than a 3 seed, it's gonna be harder for them to win over a team like Kansas, Texas, UCLA or Bama.
Kansas is gonna have to win against UConn as well as other top seeds in the final four. Same with Bama/Creighton
I genuinely have no idea what to expect with Arizona in this tournament, such a Jekyll & Hyde team. I took them to go deep but I'm going to be sweating the entire time as potential offensive minded teams like Utah St/Baylor/Creighton could prove to be landmines.
Another stat to keep in mind: KenPom tweeted that 1 or 2 seeds not ranked in the preseason AP poll have combined for zero Final Four wins and average less than 2 wins per tournament. Something to keep in mind when picking Purdue or Marquette this year.
Purdue beat Marquette in the regular season. And neither where ranked.
I'm an Arizona fan and you are right about Arizona . One night they can win the whole tournament and another night they can lose in the first round.
Yeah but two 3 seeds in the past 5 years were unranked and made the final.
Question: For your analysis, are your maximum efficiency statistics all post tournament because you are using empirical data? Don't you want to know the adjusted efficiencies before the tournament start for a more accurate measure?
No, I pulled pre-tournament data
The biggest issue this year is that there’s usually a team or two that are top 10 in both AdjO and AdjD but this year there are none of those teams
I picked Creighton to play in the championship loosing to Gonzaga. I use the highly scientific WAG criteria to make my picks.
Love it
Soild. Making adjustments
Pretty annoying that Kansas, Uconn, and UCLA are all in the same bracket. Not sure who to go with
I know! Really upset me when I came to that realization
You can also get rid of UCLA because a team west of the USA midpoint line hasnt won in forever, Alabama because the #1 overall seed hasnt won in at least 7-10 years, and Kansas because reigning champs are historically not great in the tournament. That leaves us with UCONN, Texas, Purdue, and Creighton. Thus, if youre picking a #1 seed because they are typically the champs, youd pick Purdue. Problem is they probably lose to Duke.
Personally, Im picking the host Houston because they have everything but SOS.
The vintage UNLV Runnin' Rebels of the early 90's dominated an overmatched conference, but historically a national champion and one of the greatest teams ever assembled. Tossing Houston because of their weak schedule could be a mistake.
I’m just strictly following the Kenpom stats, I think what you are saying has merit though
Don't ask how , just watch it happen :
top 8 :
Alabama vs Missouri
Purdue vs Marquette
Houston vs Colgate
Iona vs Ucla
top 4 :
Missouri vs Purdue
Colgate vs Ucla
Final :
Missouri vs Ucla
this year winner :
Ucla
i got this result by using Holistic Regression . The model was trained on every bracket since 1993 for only detecting possible upset .
Yeah the bracket is wild and i love it ahahah
it's march madness we never know
If any of Missouri or Colgate or even iona make a run , i will be speechless .
Aged like milk after 2 days lol
Lol😂😂😂😂😂
just curious...maybe i missed something....where's the ACC teams on here.....wouldnt duke and virginia be on that list above? or are they statistically that bad
Duke is #21
@@ProfessionalPicks thanks man....great stuff
Can you do this for teams to reach final four?
Great idea, I’ll look into it
@@ProfessionalPicks That would be awesome, I've been reviewing Kenpom for the last few days before the Calcutta I have tonight would have to be soon!
Rock Chalk, Go KU!
Houston has home court advantage basically do u think that makes a difference? I think iowa could upset Houston.
As a Bama fan I’ll go ahead and tell you I don’t want to see Houston in the tournament.
Cool video but the problem with using post-tourney ranks is that when you beat 6 tournament teams all four of those metrics are all but guaranteed to improve. That being said, you can see from the means and medians that the distributions are skewed and that teams that are "safely" within the criteria are much more likely to cut down the nets.
These numbers are pre-tournament ranks
You could have narrowed it down even further. Teams that have both top 20 AdjO and AdjD usually win. Alabama, UConn, or Texas from those 7.
Love the feedback, but wanted to guarantee victory by using a combo of stats that have never lost - 0 outliers. I will be sure to include that in this years video
No body can account for an unfortunate injury ocurring to a key player during a game and that player not being able to play.
That’s true, but since it can happen to any and every team, that makes no difference
Duke may become the first 5 seed to win it all
Hog fan here - UConn is the best team I’ve watched this season
I agree, no holes on that team. You guys didn't even have to guard Dajuan Harris against KU
Kansas over Marquette
I know Marquette does not fit your checklist, but they are red hot, and they check every box except for defense. However, they did shut down Xavier in the Big East title game.
Hey I think Marquette is a very good team, I’m just saying based on historical data, they are eliminated from championship consideration
Interesting idea but probably insufficient because you're flattening KenPom's bes veature... The attempt to provide nuance and variation.
So, for instance although you're using absolute cutoffs, you don't even try to attach a value difference between for instance the #1 in offense or defense and the last team at the cutoff point. Kenpom tries to estimate the value of these rankings while you simply ignored the possibility that a team with max offense but bin defense or vice versa could or would beat another team that is near the threshold on both offense and defense.
Bottom line though is that March Madness is a whole new season for every team in the tournament and everyone who's playing gets a chance.
So I'll take AZ
Your winner will be either Purdue, UConn, Kansas, Texas, or Alabama. There’s your 5 that have the chance.
I got Alabama and Texas for the championship. Texas upsets Alabama for the Natty.
Me too! 😄
There's a chance.
Had me until I saw Tennessee at 5 and knew immediately that this is just another stats spreadsheet that doesn't realize real time situations
I saw a stat that said the number one overall seed hasn’t won the tournament in 20 years. Is that accurate?
Louisville 2013
Baylor 2021
Kansas 2022 off the top of my head, plenty more
@@ProfessionalPicks Gonzaga was the number one overall seed in 21 and 22 weren’t they?
@@Itscristianboii It was the last 10 years. Before that it looks like it was Florida 2007.
@@ProfessionalPicks I think he meant overall number 1 seed which was Gonzaga in 2021 and also in 2022. Last winner was Louisville 2013 could be wrong tho
Well 4days later & 4 of those teams didn’t make it to sweet 16
And the huskies take it!
^^^ TEXAS... HOOK'EM HORNS... TEXAS... HOOK'EM HORNS... TEXAS... HOOK'EM HORNS...TEXAS... HOOK'EM HORNS... TEXAS... HOOK'EM HORNS... TEXAS... HOOK'EM HORNS... TEXAS... HOOK'EM HORNS... 🤘🏽🧡🏀🔥🎵⛅
I believe UCONN will win it
W comment looking back on this vid lol
Whose your pick this year?
had arizona winning
Hey they totally could. History is made every day
Woops 😄
UConn shouldn’t have been a 4 seed last year
1 team has won it all with an AdjO outside of top 25 in the last 20 tournaments... You can eliminate Kansas and Creighton... Especially since Kansas will be losing in the Sweet 16.
I'd like to hope Kansas goes out in the round of 32 to Arkansas. Although Arkansas has only shown it a few times this year, and usually only in one half of a game. If they put a complete game together they can beat Kansas. 🐗WPS!!!
When pigs fly
@@ronkincaid5324 amazing call!
@@stevebeckerman4214 I swear I think I just saw a pig fly by. Wait, there is several of them. They are up in the air kind of hoovering like humming birds. Big red Razorhogs just flying around.
@@ronkincaid5324 😂
...and then there were six
Which team lost? Arizona wasn’t part of it
Go HUSKIES!
Going with this for my final 4
Alabama over Duke
UCLA over Texas
Alabama over UCLA in the final
Have bama over UCLA as well bama gets rematch from 2021 sweet sixteen
Aaaaaaaaand…………. Purdue just lost to FDU😂
Aaaaaaaand, 1 of the 7 teams won it all
I only have 4 teams that can win being Alabama , houston , ucla, and UConn. I believe Alabama is making it Forsure as they have the easiest path and believe ucla will if they pass uconn
If you don’t have KU than you don’t BB
@@joerhea9340 Hahah we’ll see bro I just prefer ucla or UConn over them I’ll be back
Ucla is a retarded pick
YOU HAVE 8 TEAMS HIGHLITED NOT 7 AND AZ IS NOT ONE BUT YOU HAVE THEM ON YOUR THUMB PIC?
Only 7 teams are highlighted - can’t give away all the answers in the thumbnail
All these teams will lose in the 1st round lol. The problem with computer numbers is that it doesn't take into account injuries for your team and injuries of the other teams you play. Also it doesn't take into account the ages on a team. Veteran teams will start decent and finish decent but team with a lot of youth will start slow and be great at the end of the year. Duke is a prime example of this, they were bad through 60% of the season but now they are easily a top 5 team but of course the computer won't show that.
Judging by the fact that a 1 seed has only lost once in the 1st round in the history of the tournament, I think I disagree with your 1st statement
Anyone that watched UCLA vs Arizona and you going to tell me they are above Alabama? This video is a joke!!!
UCLA loss by 2 with 2 starters out they get Adem Bona bacc for the tournament and Arizona is 0-1 vs UCLA when UCLA not missing any starters so what’s your point ???…
Plus UCLA got 5 players on the team who been to the final four Arizona has ZERO so what’s your point ???…
Houston is the best coached team in the tournament. In my opinion that goes a long way. The fact that they have the highest KenPom and in my opinion the best coach in NCAA Basketball, is a winning formula.
Concerned at all with Sasser’s injury?
STFU. Kelvin Sampson can’t hold Bill Self’s jock. Give me a break! You clearly don’t know anything about BB.
Houston was leading by 17 and lost to BAMA at home. They are not best coach team.
West Region is loaded