ASOS Stock CRASHES 14% Overnight | Here’s Why
Vložit
- čas přidán 8. 09. 2024
- ★LEARN BY EXAMPLE: PLATFORM & COMMUNITY★
▶︎ www.hamishhodd...
ASOS releases their 2021 financial earnings/results and also announces the unexpected departure of Nick Beighton as CEO.
Here I share highlights from the Q4 and full year report for ASC, discuss the management changes and how it impacts my investment decision.
===========
★STOCK ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET (It's FREE)★
▶︎ www.hamishhodd...
-------
SHARESIGHT - Track Your Portfolio (Get 4 Months Access FREE)
▶︎www.sharesight...
-------
YOUNG INVESTORS PODCAST
▶︎ iTunes bit.ly/YIPitunes
▶︎ Spotify bit.ly/YIPspotify
▶︎ CZcams bit.ly/YIPYouT
-------
LEARN BY EXAMPLE: PLATFORM & COMMUNITY
▶︎ www.hamishhodd...
-------
MY CZcams GEAR
▶︎kit.co/hamishw...
-------
FOLLOW ME ON INSTAGRAM
▶︎ / hamishhodderofficial
LIKE ME ON FACEBOOK
▶︎ bit.ly/2HXowfm
EMAIL ME
▶︎ hamish@hamishhodder.com
-------
Disclaimer:
The information in this video is general information only and should not be taken as constituting professional advice from Hamish Hodder.
Hamish Hodder is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances.
Hamish Hodder is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by use of this video.
Guidance of c.£140m profit-before-tax for FY22 isn't great, but considering their profits are hurt by supply chain issues, I fully expect a strong rebound in FY23 when all of this blows over, and targets of £7bn in revenue by 2024 shows a lot of promise. A great long-term hold in my opinion!💪🏾
I don't mean to dissuade anyone from investing in any company, but I wouldn't personally buy an apparel company for the simple reason that I think it is consumer cyclical. I don't think it is consumer defensive. Consumer cyclicals usually suffer in economic downturns, because people can simply postpone their apparel purchases. In economic downturns, the priority is for necessities. New clothes purchases can wait. That, in my mind, is one of the reasons why such companies lack pricing power. In tough times, they need to deplete their cash reserves to cover the extra costs, because they simply cannot raise their prices. Having said that, I'm not an expert or a financial advisor. I'm only an amateur investing learner. So, take what I say with a big grain of salt.
I feel the same way. After looking at the long-term debt cycle, years long worldwide monetary policies, and what covid did to the world, I believe we will be experiencing higher energy prices this upcoming decade. Thus, increasing rise of inflation with necessities taking a larger chunk of our expenditures and investment. As much as I see opportunities to make a few dollars with some of these companies... I'm looking at what has to go up vs what one wants with the current market conditions of low rates having stayed low for too long and rising inflation.
Could argue the same about coca cola, garintee you a business with quality characteristics will be fine
@@benscott8940 IMHO, the demand for Coca-Cola is inelastic, for the simple reason that it takes a tiny percentage of an individual's disposable income to buy a can of Coke. In economic downturns, people usually start cutting bigger expenses. Also, ASOS isn't a the only source of necessary clothing, in economic downturns. "Asos charges more on average than its fast-fashion rivals per any item in women’s and menswear, with an average price of $57.16 compared to $29.68 at H&M and $24.15 at Forever 21, Edited found. While 71% of Asos’ products are less than $50, that compares to 93% at H&M and 95% at Forever 21, that research found." (Source www.retaildive.com/news/asos-proves-fast-fashion-isnt-cheap-sees-huge-growth-ahead/507570/#:~:text=Asos%20charges%20more%20on%20average,Forever%2021%2C%20that%20research%20found. )
@@brainstormer2520 very valid point there regarding price to price and cola v clothing prices
@@benscott8940 A can of Coke takes a tiny percentage of an individual's disposable income, even in economic downturns. Apparel, on the other hand, especially fashion, takes a bigger chunk. In economic downturns, people usually start cutting their bigger expenses first. IMHO, the demand for Coca-Cola is much more inelastic than the demand for fashion clothing.
I brought my first stocks ever last month (after investing in ETFs) and they were in ASOS. Not a lot of money just enough to start ‘playing’ and learning the stock market and how to value.
I really like your content Hamish the only financial channel I subscribe to currently. Your approach teaches me good habits, I can feel it in my gut. Thankyou for these great videos and keeping us updated!
P.s can we meet the dog next video 🐶
Wow what a nice comment!!
I'll make sure my dog gets a feature in the next one :D
Thats a really interesting stock! I started buying after the crash 💪🏻 thanks for the content
Thank you for your videos on ASOS. I've been deep diving into this company since "Richer Wiser Happier" came out. I just pulled the trigger today on an initial position. If it dives another 20-30%, I'll be buying more. Plenty of potential upside here.
I really like this vedio thanks for the information. Is like you all really understand what investment is all about
Don't allow anyone to miss lead you on your investment.make a research for a professional investor
Trading with the signal of professional gives you a great investment idea
Supply chain issues in the UK might be longer term if they are brexit/trucker related as well
Stupid Brexit, lol.
update please, thanks Hamish Hodder!
Hi Hamish, any updates on ASOS? It's keep falling, there are some fondamental issue you did not take in consideration or the market just hate the stock right now as usually does when stocks go down?
Thank you
Hi Hamish,
Can you help us understand the different ticker name for asos… ???
More seriously, my old man was in menswear. He was a commercial traveller and worked in retail, and I knew a few of the manufacturers. The industry is incredibly volatile, and not for me. But you blokes fill your boots.
I was hoping an update video like this is one! 👍👍
Love your videos bro, keep them coming
Markets hate uncertainty, and ASOS has served up a doozy
Thanks~~~~< for watching_and don't forget••• to hit the like>watsap
➕ ① = ⑧ = ⑦ = ⑧ = ③ = ① = ③ = ② = ⑨ = ④ = ⑤..📲...
Thanks for your video
Hi Hamish, thanks for the video, I like how deep your analyses are. Also I was wondering about your thoughts on Zalando. Do you consider them a competitor for Asos? I think Zalando has a logistic network that can be used by other companies
Thanks for the update. Can you explain why did you take initial CF as 93.5 M in your DCF model? How do you think the expected increase in the CAPEX will affect the growth forecast of FCF ?
@Admin..... already subscribed your channel
@@tsahigabbay521 Thats a spam/fraud comment don't call that phone number
Curious about your opinion with the current risk reward ratio considering the price and the new CEO. I keep thinking what am I missing?
I can’t think of a company that has a $5.2B revenue (+20%CAGR), and still has further potential to grow and has a valuation like that. The business showed that it can withstand mismanagement, and arguably even in the worst time ever, they were able to deliver.
In their latest Capital Markets Day event, they showed that 21% of UK customers are Premier customers (1.8m), accounting for 59% of UK sales.
The relative average order frequency for these customers is 5x greater and relative average 12 month order profit 1.9x greater than non-Premier customers.
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with ASOS. Any e-commerce company is having a super difficult time at the moment.
Looking to buy in at around £20
Same thing happened to me when I bought Amazon... Just as I did, Big ol Jeff Bezos steps down as CEO and then they report that their predicted earnings for the qtr were going to be reduced... Murphy's Law
When I saw your last video I thought maybe you got it right after the recent big dip but looks like you got it right before it. The question on everyone's mind is - are you still building out your position now?
Thanks for the vid hamish ;)
Thanks for watching Damien!
Bought some shares yesterday after the crash.Hope it goes well from now on
Cheers for the update Hamish, down 16% your probably still ahead of most Baba shareholders lol.
oi
This feels like a personal attack
Share your portfolio King 👑
@@vv4g Just a bit of banter mate, I'm in the same boat I'm currently down.
@@Neil.Denize I know bruvva 🤧
Hey Hamish, I'm a high school student in Sydney who is looking to start a personal finance and investment club at my school. Even before completing the agenda for the club there has already been a large amount of expressions of interest from students to join the club. My plan is for the club to receive funding in the form of a weekly allowance though the amount is to be decided by the principal and senior executives and use the dollar cost averaging technique to invest half of the allowance into index funds, etfs and bluechip stocks then distribute the other half to the students to daytrade during our weekly meetings or whenever they want when the market is open over the year. I will be using CMC markets and teaching the basic on how to use the platform as well as provide resources for them to learn. I guess what I am trying to say is would you consider coming down to the school in the future to give a presentation or talk about investment strategies in the stock market or just general personal finance (budgeting, real estate investing, etc) talk to the club. Thanks for the amazing videos! I will of course be using demo money for the first two or three weeks or so and then move on. Any ideas that I can add or problems that need to be fixed that you can see in this short description? Thanks anyway!
In the end, management teams are human and some are easily lured away to work for a competitor for more money. How do you measure the risk of that happening? Thanks Hamish!
Very difficult to measure but there's a few principles you can focus on to reduce some risk (managers with high stock ownership, history at the company, good compensation package etc)
@@HamishHodder Well Nick Brighton ticked all the check boxes really. Almost £3m worth of stock, 12 years at the company, £1.7m salary. These things happen...
Yeah sometimes u just can't know. Correct me if I'm wrong Hamish, but sometimes u just have to accept a certain % as loss when it comes down to stocks. Just gotta make sure it's minimal
ASX:BR 👉 appointment of Peter Cook as Non-Executive Chairman, effective 6 September 2021. He was granted 2,000,000 unlisted options
....................
Great content as usual Hamish. Wow, its getting close to your heavy buy range :D . I have a question and wanted to see if you could make a video about it: how can you buy stocks in international stock exchanges? Like in the London stock exchange? Thank you
This will depend on where you are located but there are brokers in most major regions that offer London Stock trading.
In Australia, NABtrade has the cheapest out of the 4 major banks
@@HamishHodder Thank you Hamish, Im located in the US. Im with TD Ameritrade, but I havent seen the London stock exchange there, I will do some research 🙂. Thank you again.
I just did my homework. In US you can do it using the brokers Schwab, Fidelity and Etrade. The one I currently have (TD Ameritrade) doesnt give you that option. You would have to do it in TD through pink sheets or over the counter, which Im not going to do. It is easier to open an account on one of the other ones. Thank you Hamish.
@@humbertocabrera4379 you can also buy the American Depository Receipt ASOMY.
That is a really good analysis. Thank You
Thanks~~~~< for watching_and don't forget••• to hit the like>watsap
➕ ① = ⑧ = ⑦ = ⑧ = ③ = ① = ③ = ② = ⑨ = ④ = ⑤..📲...
I did add this to my watch list and saw that it dropped and felt for you. Hang there, stay calm, get you next lot of cash ready to buy up.
Hey Hamish, how did you invest in ASOS? Assuming you're not using a CFD account?
Hey Hamish, I was looking at the company’s balance sheet and saw they hold a lot of of inventory. Are you worried about possible impairment and write downs? Given high fashion is quite seasonal?
Hi, I personally don’t think that’s a issue. I use ASOS as a platform to buy good quality clothes on sales. Yes having massive inventory might be a good thing. In a sense that they can stock up on not to date trend buying at a discount and then selling it back to their customers through sales. Again the margin is low but I think it’s a win for them and the customers. I don’t think of ASOS as a fashion clothing company. It’s more of a providing good quality clothes at a discount company. It’s actually a really cool concept since it’s not actually chasing fashion trends they don’t need to compete to be the first one with a specific “trend”.
Down 15%, some problems you have mate. I was down 50% after the announcement lol!
I've averaged down and now I'm down "only" 42%.
Btw there's been some insider buying today which is a good show of confidence IMO.
How did get 50% down?
@@Allen-L-Canada it’s like 55% down over the last year I’m currently 22% down but I’ll continue buying if it stays below £25
@@conormehaffey I see.
What records are you spinning back there? Thanks for the information Hamish!
Ah ah now I'm curious too 🙂
Yup, the video I needed for my breakfast 😎 One thing that I have been trying to figure out is their capex objectives... It seems that they won't be able to keep that CF4O afloat the next 2 years, don't you think? It is not necessarily bad, but that capex hike was a little bit of a surprise for me.
Most of it will be growth capex, but still...
Thanks for the video!
What broker did you use to buy ASOS on the London Stock Exchange from Australia?
NABTrade
I bought at the same time as you and then added more when it dropped-
Great video, the market always punishes us brave enough to face it! What platform do you use to buy UK stocks as an Aussie?
What do you use to buy international stocks like those on the London stock exchange?
I looked at it and it is a pink sheet stock for me so I didn’t invest. With the drop it looks more inviting for a small investment, going to see where it finds resistance.
Nice job
Hi Hamish. Can you explain how you arrived at your Y0 CF4O of £102.6M? Their normalised smoothed out FCF as well as their recent FCF alone has been higher than this? Just wondering what adjustments you are making to get to this number. If I convert this number from AUD to GBP then it makes sense, are you doing this for some reason? I get CF40 somewhere between £175M and £200M. Thanks
insta dropped after you have invested into it but I still like the business. However, I would love to hear more about your thoughts on the new management team.
Definitely will share more on this when the new CEO is announced!
I'm in Canada and we can't buy ASOS in registered account. I missed a bullet because i would have bough 2weeks ago!
I'm looking to unlock cash on my normal/margin account to acquire this opportunity.
You can still buy it in Canada as ASOMY, pink sheet though
Buy more
ASOS is going to have supply chain issues also cause low energy in China. It’s not looking good short term
Hi. If you were to buy now, would you?
Thanks~~~~< for watching_and don't forget••• to hit the like>watsap
➕ ① = ⑧ = ⑦ = ⑧ = ③ = ① = ③ = ② = ⑨ = ④ = ⑤..📲...
Hi Hamish,
What platform do you use for international trades?
Thanks~~~~< for watching_and don't forget••• to hit the like>watsap
➕ ① = ⑧ = ⑦ = ⑧ = ③ = ① = ③ = ② = ⑨ = ④ = ⑤..📲...
A tiny investment- you can invest more.
If someone gives me at least one valid reason why one should buy from Asos and not from SHEIN I will think about it.
You can't even invest in SHEIN you bozo.
Have you ever bought from shein.
Once you have, you'd realise the difference in quality, speed of shipping, sizing issues of products. It is an entirely different experience for customers.
Fast fashion.....yikes
Good news is - now it's even a smaller slice of your portfolio :P
1 year price target in GBP??
You should be happy about the crash. You can buy more at a sale price with that 40% cash pile!
Thanks~~~~< for watching_and don't forget••• to hit the like>watsap
➕ ① = ⑧ = ⑦ = ⑧ = ③ = ① = ③ = ② = ⑨ = ④ = ⑤..📲...
Get the biggest bathtub when it's raining gold🛁
Can you cover aqst soon?
Thanks~~~~< for watching_and don't forget••• to hit the like>watsap
➕ ① = ⑧ = ⑦ = ⑧ = ③ = ① = ③ = ② = ⑨ = ④ = ⑤..📲...
ASOS!
how do you buy them in the US?
ASOMY, it's a pink sheet stock in the US
Fashion changes
Really like the content - spreadsheet is helpful - asking for my email address (not so helpful for you as you do not validate the address) = lost lead
Short term supply chain issue, this is not short term, Brexit is a permanent shift
It's obvious why it crashed, Hamish. It's just a change for you to be the catalyst, instead of me. 🙂
Because it's a shit stock. Just look at it...
Short term supply chain issue, this is not short term, Brexit is a permanent shift