Is Toyota’s EV Strategy Brilliant or Bonkers? - Autoline After Hours 636

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  • čas přidán 22. 02. 2023
  • TOPIC:
    Toyota is betting that hybrids will outsell BEVs for a long time to come. It may be right. But it’s slow-walk with electrics means it’s missing out on the fastest growing segment in the industry. Sam Fiorani from Autoforecast Solutions and Dan Neil are on the show to help us figure out if Toyota is crazy like a fox, or just plain crazy.
    PANEL:
    Sam Fiorani, AutoForecast Solutions
    Dan Neil, The Wall Street Journal
    John McElroy, Autoline.tv
    INSTAGRAM: / autolinenetwork
    TWITTER: / autoline
    FACEBOOK: / autolinenetwork
    WEBSITE: www.autoline.tv
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Komentáře • 313

  • @bannor99
    @bannor99 Před rokem +8

    who knew Woody Allen did such a great Dan Neil impression

  • @sergiomessina2037
    @sergiomessina2037 Před rokem +18

    Great content! I hope you do more of these type of think tank discussions on the transition of ICE to EVs.

  • @user-to2rf1rj5v
    @user-to2rf1rj5v Před rokem +4

    You broke 100k subs! Congrats!!!

  • @Bryan46162
    @Bryan46162 Před rokem +5

    The Ultium platform is 3 years ahead of the original Tesla skateboard. The problem for GM is that the original Tesla skateboard was superseeded by Tesla about 5 years ago.

    • @Carguytct
      @Carguytct Před rokem

      The so-call Ultium platform is a joke. It's just a fancy name that GM made up.

  • @rodrigogaya5276
    @rodrigogaya5276 Před rokem +8

    Nice not having luddites hold back the convo!

  • @fuelon
    @fuelon Před rokem +5

    Great show as always, Thalys you! And congratulations on 100k subscribers!

  • @juanvga
    @juanvga Před rokem +8

    Remember GM and dealers relationship. More BEV means less repairs for theirs shops

  • @sergiomessina2037
    @sergiomessina2037 Před rokem +50

    I think the real soon to be landscape will be Tesla and a bunch of Chinese OEMs. All the others will be fighting for the scraps… at least they'll be one American OEM in the game.

    • @brandoYT
      @brandoYT Před rokem

      TESLA already China winner.

    • @johnsmith-cw3wo
      @johnsmith-cw3wo Před rokem

      If Tesla don't make anything in the under 20k price range, it will only sell relevant number of cars in the western world. The 10k-20k chinese EV will ''eat'' the entire global south. (most of Asia, Africa, Latin America)

    • @RayNLA
      @RayNLA Před rokem +1

      You are absolutely correct sir…I went to the future and saw the same thing!

    • @sergiomessina2037
      @sergiomessina2037 Před rokem +1

      Thanks Marty!

    • @jeffcarroll3831
      @jeffcarroll3831 Před rokem

      😂

  • @georgepelton5645
    @georgepelton5645 Před rokem +4

    What a great episode. Extraordinary guests, and John does a super job, as usual.

  • @AB-ts2xd
    @AB-ts2xd Před rokem +4

    I’m with Toyota on hybrids

  • @dclpgh
    @dclpgh Před rokem +5

    GM and now Ford having trouble with pouch type batteries. who saw that comin? :)

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      ...err...LG...Hyundai/Kia.

  • @georgecostanza2695
    @georgecostanza2695 Před rokem +4

    Surprised to see you guys on the air with the storm👍 I got a news notification that literally said there was 850,000 power outages across the country… whatever that means.

  • @frankcoffey
    @frankcoffey Před rokem +3

    Great conversation! Very informative and entertaining 😂

  • @jamessanfilippo4778
    @jamessanfilippo4778 Před rokem +2

    John, Sam, Dan. Sublime! Great show! We need more dialogue, not less, as auto biz transparency wanes. John, feature these guys weekly!

  • @krrk6337
    @krrk6337 Před rokem +6

    Charging infrastructures have been a big problem for a decade except Tesla, because they invested heavily on it and I see no one doing like them. Why? Because who wanna invest for something so capital intensive but getting low return unless you're old gas pump selling something else at the premise that have more profit than electricity.

  • @doncooper2344
    @doncooper2344 Před rokem +3

    I love Dan Neil but he seems to have totally missed the boat on Ultium. He seems to think Ultium is a battery chemistry. It's not. It's a platform which wirelessly manages the battery pack at the cell level. In fact one of its big advantages is that its chemistry agnostic. GM could swap in LFP batteries with lower energy density and lower power tomorrow without an issue. Or it could do what Ford has done and use LFP for lower end shorter range vehicles and NCMA for its longer range higher end vehicles. The Ultium platform is so flexible that it can actually mix batteries with different chemistries and voltages in the same pack! AFAIK no one else can do that.
    I would be interested in learning more about his idea that one drawback of the GM batteries is they aren't weight bearing. You have to protect the cells because they are flammable. As a consequence there will be strong and sturdy housing for the pack regardless of whether the cells are cylindrical or pouch. You can reduce the mass by going to solid state and removing the liquid electrolyte but I can't see doing this by eliminating the housing? (Seems like an invitation to revisit the Ford Pinto).
    The bottom line is that Tesla is probably a few years behind GM, the Koreans, and maybe VW. All these companies have a platform for a range of vehicles. GM seems to have knocked it out of the park with its platform, which it can use for pretty much any vehicle and any battery chemistry. Tesla has to design a platform for every vehicle, as shown by the fact that the Cybertruck was announced 4 years ago.
    He should also keep in mind that GM likely has a lower cost per kWh at the pack level than Tesla. For better or worse the cost structures are also different. GM has big cells, so 60% of its pack costs are in the cell and 40% are in the pack other than the cells. Tesla uses small cells so and 60% of costs are in the pack other than the cells.
    I'm also not sure how much I subscribe to the idea that Tesla is making a ton of money. Tesla is known for its creative accounting. For example it books warranty costs to goodwill. I haven't looked at the financials for several years but my conclusion a few years ago was that it was impossible to compare Tesla to other manufacturers because the reporting systems were so different.

  • @airheart1
    @airheart1 Před rokem +9

    Sorry.. but GM's Ultium platform is a giant disaster. Not just in the production numbers.. but in the damn FORMAT! Which is a HUGE mistake. Pouch cells was the wrong way to go. I think it was Ford, or maybe it was GM, who seem to have finally come to the realization that they should be going down a different path and talked about going into cylindricals. The other option would be prismatics. But pouch is the bottom of the barrel. I wouldn't even consider a EV with pouch cells. Now, I realize a lot of buyers wouldn't know what cars have pouch or cylindrical or otherwise.. but when they have worse performance in every measurable metric, and continue to run into thermal problems.. it will be very evident to all.
    The biggest problem with Fisker is he HAS an aura.. at least, in those who know EVs.. and it's a BAD aura. It STINKS. And those who know, wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      GM is already selling Lyriq's in China with battery cells. Please keep up!

    • @airheart1
      @airheart1 Před rokem

      @@normt430 your comment is utterly stupid. First, i already know, and never said they made 0. Second, They’ve sold a couple thousand.. it’s basically nothing in automotive production numbers. Are they Ferrari now? Lol. And since WHEN does GM prioritize Chinese production over USA? Clearly, something is very wrong with the vehicle.

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      @@airheart1 Watch Tesla become a China company selling more there than here by 2024!

    • @airheart1
      @airheart1 Před rokem

      @@normt430 while that may happen.. though highly unlikely as Texas production ramps up.. it alone should equal, if not surpass, giga Shanghai. Still, why is the Lyriq still coming out in such tiny numbers? Something is clearly wrong with it. It’s practically a year into production and global sales were abysmal. Not a sales issue.. a production issue. And my bet is it’s the batteries. It COULD be the software.. hell it could be both.. but something is clearly wrong. It’s a good looking machine.. decent numbers across the board.. they will sell every one they can make. So where’s the holdup close to a year into deliveries?

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      @@airheart1 GM Ultium battery plant #1 just opened last August with a 20% quarterly ramp up while the structure for #2 structure is already up. GM has set record sales in 2022 as they wind down ICE and invest in EV battery factories and convert plants from ICE to EV. This trend will continue u til battery plants can put out.
      GM does not live on ZEV credits like Tesla.

  • @georgepelton5645
    @georgepelton5645 Před rokem

    Question for Dan: How does the Lucid battery cell connections look different or more fragile than the 85 kWh Model S battery cell connections? The orginal 2012 Model S battery has some problems, but cell connections don’t appear to be an issue.

  • @lighthousesaunders7242
    @lighthousesaunders7242 Před rokem +4

    Dan Neil is a treat.

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      A treat as much as a fruitcake is!

  • @lighthousesaunders7242
    @lighthousesaunders7242 Před rokem +3

    GM changed the "Ultium" form factor pretending their chemistry is all that matters, that they're platform agnostic. Sure but do they really expect us to believe a change in form factor isn't a major disruption to production?

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      The GM Ultium EV platform has always been batyery agnostic. See the different chemistry in the non-Ultium Bolt EV that has more than one chemistry.

  • @antoinepageau8336
    @antoinepageau8336 Před rokem +27

    Forget BEV’s and ask a more fundamental question. When was the last time that the automobile fabrication process changed / evolved? The Ford assembly line. Automated Robotic welding? Tesla has changed the fundamentals about how a car is manufactured. They could build an ICE version of the Model 3 and would still beat the legacy companies.

    • @TokyoOlympics2020
      @TokyoOlympics2020 Před rokem +1

      Learn TPS and Elon's tent and then come back

    • @antoinepageau8336
      @antoinepageau8336 Před rokem +3

      @@TokyoOlympics2020 LOL careful you're tripping on the flowers in the carpet.

    • @lighthousesaunders7242
      @lighthousesaunders7242 Před rokem

      Great analogy. Tesla could out ICE the ice makers with an ice car

    • @aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669
      @aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669 Před rokem +5

      ​@@TokyoOlympics2020if Toyotas BZ4X is anything to judge Toyota by they are finished.

    • @doncooper2344
      @doncooper2344 Před rokem +2

      @@aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669 I think the BZ4X is the perfect vehicle for proving that people don't want electric vehicles! LOL Actually I don't think there is anything wrong with it. There just isn't anything that would make you want to buy it.

  • @doncooper2344
    @doncooper2344 Před rokem +1

    Sam Fiorani's point that he's waiting for an Equinox under $40K seems weird for me. Since the Chevy Bolt starts at $26,500 before tax credits I can't see why that price point would be so hard for GM to hit (for the base).
    Also note that the price GM gets for its vehicles doesn't change if the consumer pays MSRP or over MSRP. GM gets the price to the dealer and the extra dollars go to the dealer. Given the revenue to GM is capped at the dealer's purchase price, hard to understand why GM would hold back production in order to boost the sales prices. When did the IRA battery production payments kick in? Might be related to that? Or maybe John is right and the question is: "What the hell is wrong there"? LOL
    Totally agree with Dan Neil that the marketing of vehicles that customers can't actually buy is a failure. Long ago Infiniti tried this with its first vehicle and it didn't work that well. At least GM and Ford are showing the vehicles, though taking an order and telling the customer to wait a year or two seems a bit much. (I got an email about the Equinox EV this morning. When will that actually be available?)

  • @billsrelectric
    @billsrelectric Před rokem +1

    How do we know if Ultium is any good? Has it been tested by independent groups?

    • @haywoodmorganjr1326
      @haywoodmorganjr1326 Před rokem

      Ultium batteries are nothing more than Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel pouch batteries nothing but a fancy name to make than stand out.

  • @SomeTechGuy666
    @SomeTechGuy666 Před rokem +3

    Dan Neil, Mr Arts History was it ? doesn't know anything about megacasting. First off the PRESSURE isn't 100,000s of PSI. The force is many tons. The injection pressure isn't thousands of PSI. Injection casting is very energy efficient. Way more than cutting and bending steel and welding it, then priming it, painting it, etc.

  • @cassidybb10
    @cassidybb10 Před rokem

    All this car battery ramp up. How does this effect Duracell and Energizer?

  • @owggarage723
    @owggarage723 Před rokem +2

    Sam looks like he is sitting in John's closet. Could explain why his connection is so good. 😆

  • @by9917
    @by9917 Před rokem +1

    I was surprised the I-Pace charges so slowly. I was traveling across TX with a MME and stopped at an EA/WM. There were 2 Waymo I-Paces Charging when I arrived. I charged to about 93 % and left, while the Jags were still charging.

    • @TokyoOlympics2020
      @TokyoOlympics2020 Před rokem +2

      They are old and not competitive

    • @davidmenasco5743
      @davidmenasco5743 Před rokem +1

      The I-Pace is a lesson for Toyota. By all accounts a fine car, drives great. But as an EV, compared to other EVs it is not competitive.
      The BZ4X is like someone at Toyota looked at the I-Pace and said, let's do a cheaper version of that!

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      The I-Pace was pretty much pre-Tesla!

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      @@davidmenasco5743 the i-Pace was out before most of the current Tesla models today.

    • @davidmenasco5743
      @davidmenasco5743 Před rokem +2

      @@normt430 True, it was impressive particularly for it's early date of release.
      Now it's five years later and Toyota have released a down-market version with worse specs and less EV savvy, while everyone else has left those specs in the dustbin of history. It's a real sign of trouble at Toyota, I think.

  • @garryellis3085
    @garryellis3085 Před rokem +2

    You got some informed guests for a change. Thanks John.

    • @GaiaTheorist82
      @GaiaTheorist82 Před rokem

      I don’t know about all of them… Dan literally didn’t know what he’s talking about “Fisker is just sketches and drawings”… the car has been in production for months and is being delivered to customers in the next week or so. They’re sold out through 2023… whoops

    • @thehumanoid6543
      @thehumanoid6543 Před rokem

      @@GaiaTheorist82 he's a pulitzer prize winner. The fisker is vaporware. I haven't seen one in la. I've seen hundreds of teslas. I don't like elon much, but whatever he's doing, sems to be working. They're "sold out" only because their production threshold is low.

    • @GaiaTheorist82
      @GaiaTheorist82 Před rokem

      @@thehumanoid6543 lololol 🤡🤡🤡

    • @GaiaTheorist82
      @GaiaTheorist82 Před rokem

      @@thehumanoid6543 why pop in, just to call yourself ignorant and misinformed?

    • @wider-manonspider-man9389
      @wider-manonspider-man9389 Před rokem

      Pulitzer's don't make anyone infallible, btw... stop being a bootlicker. Smh... celeb worship culture.

  • @hereigoagain5050
    @hereigoagain5050 Před rokem +1

    I agree with Dan that in 10 years episodes like these will seem quaint but that is the way transitional periods are. Remember the wild talk about the Internet 25 years ago?

  • @scruffy4647
    @scruffy4647 Před rokem +2

    GM’s Ultium architecture seems like a good idea. Used across all their builds. Modular. Upgradable to new battery chemistry. For now, solid state batteries are a pouch form factor. Future proof.

    • @petersilva037
      @petersilva037 Před rokem +1

      yes... GM has said their platform is chemistry agnostic, So with LFP improving rapidly on density, and already great on cost, they could use them in their packs... but making the Ultium structural would indeed a good thing.

    • @Carguytct
      @Carguytct Před rokem

      Ultium is nothing more than a fancy name.

  • @kitgerhart8749
    @kitgerhart8749 Před rokem +1

    Interesting discussion. For now, Toyota hybrids are great for me, since I don't have home charging. Time will tell how quickly things change, and how soon condos like mine will have home charging. The hybrids get double the mpg of non-hybrids in short trip/stop-and-go driving I do a lot, and they get somewhat better mpg in highway driving.

    • @markwilliams6378
      @markwilliams6378 Před rokem

      People who live in apartment buildings and town houses if they don't have chargers getting an EV wouldn't make any sense. A flooded charging station after a hurricane or ice storm is a disaster waiting to happen

  • @57wadey
    @57wadey Před rokem

    Perhaps the team should invest in a Starlink terminal for the next winter storms!

  • @vlad2838
    @vlad2838 Před rokem +4

    Really entertaining, insightful conversation. I suspect that GM is indeed slow walking its rollout, principally because the public charging infrastructure (CCS DCFC) is still unreliable and anemic. The company’s partnership with EVGo has been a dud, and other announced networks from Flying J and Travel Center won’t see the light of day until 2024. This leaves EA, whose charging experience is as terrible as the on-board software in parent VW’s ID4. Not a sensible move to unleash new EVs onto a landscape that can’t yet support it.

    • @TheLastMoccasin
      @TheLastMoccasin Před rokem +2

      Slow walking..... and incapable look the same for a while.

    • @vlad2838
      @vlad2838 Před rokem +3

      @@TheLastMoccasin The whispers of the pouch battery shortcomings and a mooted shift to 4680 batteries certainly don’t bode well for their engineering.

    • @TheLastMoccasin
      @TheLastMoccasin Před rokem

      @@vlad2838 As Tony Seba said.... "If you are not on your 2nd or 3rd platform by 2020, it might be too late."
      czcams.com/video/9hKp1xiCN9A/video.html

    • @bobwallace9753
      @bobwallace9753 Před rokem +1

      I doubt GM or any other legacy company has yet dedicated itself to becoming an EV company. If that's the case then the execs are not driving the transition 24/365 and their best engineers are not all working on EVs.
      Look at how GM just spent well over a billion dollars developing a new internal combustion engine but only a small fraction of that on EV development.

    • @TheLastMoccasin
      @TheLastMoccasin Před rokem

      ​@@bobwallace9753 Correct! Their CEOs are incentivized for todays quarterly profits and have no long term give-a-f$ck for the companies they are currently getting a paycheck from. Making that commitment now would mean shrinking their own paychecks.... good luck with that

  • @herbertwedermanjr239
    @herbertwedermanjr239 Před rokem +2

    I can’t stop laughing 🤣

  • @Just-a-guy926
    @Just-a-guy926 Před rokem +1

    Hope you have a chance to discuss Honda’s EV strategy for electric cars. GM partnership on Prologue, ZDX, Hondas developed ev platform for 2026, and the Sony-Honda mobility Afeela brand.

    • @TheLastMoccasin
      @TheLastMoccasin Před rokem +2

      They could discuss Honda's lack of strategy... Japan has serious issues coming!

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem +2

      Or the lack of Japanese strategy!

    • @haywoodmorganjr1326
      @haywoodmorganjr1326 Před rokem +3

      Japan had put its eggs in the fuel cell basket.

  • @scruffy4647
    @scruffy4647 Před rokem

    You guys really make for some good listening. It was an interesting observation that Dan made about the energy usage of the giga press. It seems like a no brainer that it's more efficient both cost wise and total energy expended than from the traditional way of manufacturing. It definitely sells more Teslas. How that equates to carbon neutral, get the bean counters on it. I just finished watching a Sandy Munro YT episode and one of the advertisements was wireless buttons you could retrofit to your Tesla. Elon ain't gonna like that. lol.

    • @bobwallace9753
      @bobwallace9753 Před rokem

      The gigapress can be run with 100% renewable, very low carbon footprint electricity. Some make the mistake of doing the math using our ~60% dirty grid but each year we can expect the grid to become cleaner.
      The IRA(Build Back Better) bill is going to accelerate the installation of wind, solar, and storage. In 2017 we converted 2% of our grid from fossil fuels to renewables. If we ramp that up to 4%, which should be easy, we could see a clean grid in 15 years. And I'm guessing we'll average more than 4% per year. The market is now going to drive the switchover.

  • @bobwallace9753
    @bobwallace9753 Před rokem +1

    When the cradle to cradle analysis is done be sure to do a second one which uses the clean electricity that we are working our way toward. Fossil fuels are going to disappear from our grids, it's just a matter of time.

    • @richardboesen7423
      @richardboesen7423 Před rokem

      Yes, but a longer time "Globally" due to finance$ "Globally" than any of US will be alive to see.

    • @bobwallace9753
      @bobwallace9753 Před rokem

      @@richardboesen7423
      Do you not understand that with renewable energy becoming cheaper than fossil fuel energy the world's markets will quickly switch?
      Think about all the countries that have to spend money constantly to import fossil fuels while they are daily bombarded with free energy from wind and solar.

  • @rightlanehog3151
    @rightlanehog3151 Před rokem

    Fascinating.

  • @billsrelectric
    @billsrelectric Před rokem +1

    Rivian might just have to pivot to building just Amazon trucks. FOCUS.

  • @billsrelectric
    @billsrelectric Před rokem +1

    I am worried about Rivian. I hope, hope they can somehow ramp up. The ramp has been soooo slow.

    • @petersilva037
      @petersilva037 Před rokem

      Munro''s analysis was kind of devastating... the trucks are great for user facing stuff and capabbility, but they fall down on design for manufacturability, so they are hard and slow to build. They could probably make many, many changes to take cost out of the current truck without sacrificing anything user visible.
      I wish they would.

    • @billsrelectric
      @billsrelectric Před rokem

      @@petersilva037 I have driven the R1T. Rivian brought one to my house for a "test drive". It appears to be a great truck, beautiful interior. But they started taking orders at the end of 2018, after having been in business for many years before that "preparing themselves" What is the bottleneck? It isn't money, they raised tons from investors. I do understand if they engineered a lot of it without regards to the manufacturing....that can be a problem.

  • @peteregan3862
    @peteregan3862 Před rokem

    John said: "... this town Detroit ..." Great to see developers bringing some life back to downtown Detroit. But politically, most Michiganers don't want to talk about it - the metropolitan area is South East Michigan.
    Chicago has some soul with its CBD. The region is known by its centre.
    It would be start if Michiganers referred to Detroit Metro rather than S.E.Michigan

  • @williamerazo3921
    @williamerazo3921 Před rokem +1

    Dude is so optimistic of Toyota

  • @wbouton100
    @wbouton100 Před rokem

    Dan is absolutely correct about PHEVs, but is he on a 56k dial-up modem??

  • @Dularr
    @Dularr Před rokem

    Higher voltage allows thinner wires.

  • @petersilva037
    @petersilva037 Před rokem +1

    talked about exotics, and nobody mentioned Rimac ?

  • @lesliecarter4295
    @lesliecarter4295 Před rokem +2

    Bring Back Gary soon!

  • @LexgoesNomad
    @LexgoesNomad Před rokem +1

    Please look up Edison motors.

  • @BjorckBengt
    @BjorckBengt Před rokem +1

    Solid State Vapour Ware

  • @tonydebreceni8966
    @tonydebreceni8966 Před rokem

    The way he's standing reminds me of the Tesla logo.

  • @TokyoOlympics2020
    @TokyoOlympics2020 Před rokem +2

    Lol stellantis, let the brands fight and no idea of the future or how to get there. Next up, cost cutting to success because that always works!

  • @ronaldgarrison8478
    @ronaldgarrison8478 Před rokem

    I don't know, and maybe it cannot be known for sure, but I suspect that quote from King Faisal, about his grandson riding a camel, probably referred to "the way things are going right now." It's NOT gonna happen that way.

  • @phillyphil1513
    @phillyphil1513 Před rokem

    37:36 - "it's what you wanna buy, it's what you wanna have, it's JEWELRY..." 21st Century TRANSLATION: "Virtue Signaling". 20th Century TRANSLATION: "Keeping up with the Jones". and with that ladies and gentlemen the much touted argument/cover story of "I'm doing this to Save The Planet" goes OUT THE WINDOW.

  • @Martinko_Pcik
    @Martinko_Pcik Před rokem +1

    Doesn't the unused overcapacity mean they are making overpriced products few people want to buy ? That's how I see it. The hypothesis is supported by the fact there is a shortage of affordable cars since the used car market is overpriced as well.

  • @michalsetlak
    @michalsetlak Před rokem

    For low-carbon fuel for ICE-powered exotics, go for methane (CNG, LNG) - of all fuels ICE can accept (except of pure hydrogen, theoretically) it has the lowest carbon to hydrogen ratio. You don't need to invent the wheel, CH4 is readily available.

  • @herbertwedermanjr239
    @herbertwedermanjr239 Před rokem +3

    Dan obviously has an agenda

    • @NewCastleIndiana
      @NewCastleIndiana Před rokem +2

      The only thing I could tell is that he’s keeping the dial up modem service industry going. Worst connection for professional ever.

  • @cesartrujillo4190
    @cesartrujillo4190 Před rokem +1

    Ironic that changes in climate had an effect on this conversation

  • @TheLastMoccasin
    @TheLastMoccasin Před rokem +4

    Wow! Was not expecting someone with "The Wall Street Journal" in their title to know what they are talking about when it comes to EVs!!! Great job Dan Neil!!

    • @NewCastleIndiana
      @NewCastleIndiana Před rokem +5

      If I remember correctly, Mr. Dan Neil is the only automotive journalist to have a Pulitzer

  • @hamiltonasseiro6671
    @hamiltonasseiro6671 Před rokem

    Since Tesla will be opening up their charging network to other car makes will they also sell Tesla batteries to competitors too?

    • @TheLastMoccasin
      @TheLastMoccasin Před rokem +2

      No. Tesla can make a more efficient chassis and build it much faster than legacy, so no reason to sell batteries to them as they will just waste them in inefficient platforms. Batteries will be the limiting factor for many years.

    • @johnsmith-cw3wo
      @johnsmith-cw3wo Před rokem +2

      @@TheLastMoccasin Tesla hardly produce any batteries, most of them are bought from Panasonic and CATL (and soon BYD) - the batteries Tesla produces are enough for like 50-60k cars.

    • @TheLastMoccasin
      @TheLastMoccasin Před rokem

      @@johnsmith-cw3wo Correct. Also add LG Chem for China vehicle 2170's and Samsung SDI 2170's in the past. Tesla will buy quality batteries from anyone....as long as they are not Ultium pouch cells lol.

    • @phillyphil1513
      @phillyphil1513 Před rokem

      Q: will they also sell Tesla batteries to competitors too? A: no, they already don't have enough batteries to build both Tesla Automobiles and the Semi at same time, as such they're struggling with INTERNAL COMPETITION among their own products which is why you won't see the already 3-4 year delayed Cybertruck anytime soon. the few Semis supplied to Pepsi-Co are actually just part of larger effort of MARKETING and ADVERTISING for the parent company of Tesla. you of course are expressly meant to MIS-INTERPRET their existence to mean there is a "grand rollout" occurring and there are many more coming. this strategy/technique is known as "giving a little where it SHOWS a lot" (and very few things "show more" than a giant Tandem Axle Tractor with a 53ft Trailer behind it).

    • @TheLastMoccasin
      @TheLastMoccasin Před rokem

      @@phillyphil1513 Very true!! Demand for each product they launch is always more than even Tesla internally expects, causing launches for later products to be delayed due to battery constraints. Great problem for them to have.... sucks for those waiting on Cybertruck and future products haha

  • @brandoYT
    @brandoYT Před rokem +1

    Hybrid ICE engine seldom at operating temperature. Therefore they pollute way too much.

  • @technologyandsociety21C
    @technologyandsociety21C Před rokem +4

    please ask your guests to get their web cams and microphones squared away before you go on the air...

    • @NewCastleIndiana
      @NewCastleIndiana Před rokem

      And one thing I’ve learned from Alex Lindsay is that you have a back up. Use the acronym PACE. Primary alternative contingent and emergency. So I actually have three back ups.

  • @Mike-pn3eg
    @Mike-pn3eg Před rokem +1

    The market is there, GM is scared of another recall. John your argument doesn’t hold water because most of those sunk cost have moved on to the next platform

  • @KTPurdy
    @KTPurdy Před rokem

    Not sure what Dan talking about. Most all large companies put their marketing ahead of product. Look at Tesla, they're routinely two years late.

  • @JP-sw5ho
    @JP-sw5ho Před rokem +1

    Lead is still in the gas used by piston airplanes, in vast quantities. 😓

    • @georgepelton5645
      @georgepelton5645 Před rokem +1

      Vast quantities? Piston aircraft only use a small fraction of avaiation fuel, which in turn is only a fraction of petroleum fuel produced. Oil companies have been threatening to stop making AVGas for many years, since it is such a small market for them.

    • @JP-sw5ho
      @JP-sw5ho Před rokem

      @@georgepelton5645 according to engineering explained, piston aircraft use multiples of the lead concentration that cars once used in their fuel, and living near a piston aircraft airport exposes people to unsafe lead levels in communities all across the USA; idk if this is happening elsewhere

  • @flattire707
    @flattire707 Před rokem

    Great discussion. Sounds like your hope for OEMs to succeed will depend on Tesla standing still. If Toyota could have a real prototype solid state battery tomorrow, it would still take them years to set up factories and produce both cars and batteries in sufficient volume to be profitable. Then there is their lack of software and and data to compete with FSD. No, the competition is not coming.

    • @benjaminsmith2287
      @benjaminsmith2287 Před rokem

      Why a lack of software? Toyota is working on Arene. Does anyone know how far along it is? Toyota previewed also a digital assistant in their bZ Compact SUV concept. The concept shows some of what Toyota is working on. And who really is all that interested in FSD beyond people in the Tesla community. There are competing autonomous driving projects as well.

  • @aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669

    By 2030 Toyotas market share in North America will have dwindled to a fraction of what it is today, it might hold on in Asia and parts of Africa but even there Toyota will shrink as the Chinese penetrate those markets .

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      Yes, Toyota can say goodbye to California!

  • @dpharr100
    @dpharr100 Před rokem

    In Europe electricity has gotten so expensive these cars are no longer saving people money
    I saw a video of a teenager that got a new Tesla for her birthday. She didn't want the Tesla because she didn't want to have to plug it in

    • @benjaminsmith2287
      @benjaminsmith2287 Před rokem +1

      Some people think that video was a fake and they were actors.

  • @johnsradios484
    @johnsradios484 Před rokem

    We are going electric whether we like it or not. I just hope that prices of the EV’s become reasonable! But I doubt it.

    • @WAN2TREE4
      @WAN2TREE4 Před rokem

      That will take a while I think. Hybrid technology didn't become profitable until 25yrs later because the technology is expensive. Nobody wants to pay premium for the gas savings. By the time EV becomes mainstream, lithium will be so expensive the cars will never be cheap.But I hope I'm wrong.

  • @ChicagoBob123
    @ChicagoBob123 Před rokem +1

    Rivians build is too complicated. They need a huge review and remove the bespoke vehicle

  • @ronaldgarrison8478
    @ronaldgarrison8478 Před rokem

    Whenever someone claims that the environment is continuing to get worse, you can say that there is some truth to that, but you can cite one counter-example that is actually quite striking: the phaseout of leaded gasoline. Now, here's the thing I've never seen brought up: There has been a lot of discussion of the effects of lead on human health, and in particular, airborne lead from gasoline. But is there any reason to think those effects are limited to human health? The effects must be serious throughout the whole biosphere. And stopping that poisoning is a major step in the right direction, for the whole natural world.

  • @wbouton100
    @wbouton100 Před rokem

    Solid state batteries for EVs have been a pipe dream for decades and they are still decades away from producing them at scale cheaply, if ever. Solid state = cold fusion right now, almost there for decades.

  • @GaiaTheorist82
    @GaiaTheorist82 Před rokem

    I pre-ordered the Fisker, Dan, you should be more informed “models and drawings?” The Ocean is already in production and customers will be driving it next month. Can’t afford a Tesla, Lucid, or Rivian… like most working class folk. Fisker is the best affordable option, y’all don’t get it, because you’re wealthy people out of touch with most.

  • @steveclemens8488
    @steveclemens8488 Před rokem +2

    Bonkers......But it is very nice of them to cede their lead by being pig-headed about petrol.

  • @WarPropheteer
    @WarPropheteer Před rokem

    It's TETRAETHYL LEAD 👀👀

  • @ronaldgarrison8478
    @ronaldgarrison8478 Před rokem

    The specious arguments about how hybrids are somehow greener than BEVs inevitably involves the carbon footprint of producing BEV, which is supposedly higher. Well, I can tell you what that carbon footprint will be in the long run: ZERO. When the energy system is zero-carbon, AS IT WILL BE in a few decades, then that carbon footprint will flatline. And yes, I'm taking into account steel-making-to the extent that steel in cars is still a thing in 2050.

  • @lindacunnington1832
    @lindacunnington1832 Před rokem

    I'm buying a hybrid for my next car. Gas cars create millions of jobs, gas stations, fast foods stores, truck stops and restaurants.

  • @leeoldershaw956
    @leeoldershaw956 Před rokem +2

    The problem legacy OEMs are having with EVs is software. That's not likely to improve anytime soon and Tesla is the world leader and pulling away.

    • @johnsmith-cw3wo
      @johnsmith-cw3wo Před rokem +3

      what? the buggy ''FSD'' ?

    • @GaiaTheorist82
      @GaiaTheorist82 Před rokem +1

      Nah, they were the world leader, because they had the market nearly to themselves for a decade. Teslas suffer software issues too, and build quality issues, not to mention they just aren’t as unique or cool as they once were, model 3 has become like a civic around Orlando. Boring.

  • @eddieg6436
    @eddieg6436 Před rokem +2

    Toyota better build a new, electric (or ICE) MR2!!! ….I’d like a new one to go with my mint 1989!!

    • @frankcoffey
      @frankcoffey Před rokem

      Mazda should have had an EV Miata by now also. There are no EV roadsters in the market and won’t be for years.

    • @eddieg6436
      @eddieg6436 Před rokem

      @@frankcoffey I agree, but EVERYTHING I’ve read says automakers profit margin are TINY with smaller vehicles, and that’s why they are building huge trucks, and giant, 3-row crossovers, unfortunately.

  • @gigemgreg
    @gigemgreg Před rokem

    Tetraethyllead was only phased out becuase it ruined catalytic converters when introduced in the 70's. Still used in 100LL aviation gasoline. Highly toxic.

  • @axion8788
    @axion8788 Před rokem

    The manufacturers can't achieve "scale" because they refuse to make viable EV CUVs that have an "out the door" price of $30k to $40K. This is the EV that Americans want to buy.

  • @WAN2TREE4
    @WAN2TREE4 Před rokem

    Toyota has built partnership with BYD and long time battery partner Panasonic so what's the rush? And 2, they can just copy Tesla's technology, or improve on it even then what's the problem?

  • @glenncornwall4331
    @glenncornwall4331 Před rokem

    Although I am a total tesla fan boy at the same time, I do want to see the OEMs succeed at the same time. The biggest problem I see, for the OEMs is a charging infrastructure. Do you expect Tesla to take care of the charging infrastructure in the United States, because electrify America is absolutely completely total trash. I got to say I really like all of the GM designs. At the same time I got to say in this;is the fact that Tesla cars are technically more sophisticated with technical chops.😅

  • @frankcoffey
    @frankcoffey Před rokem +4

    I don’t have a problem with Toyota not making EVs, that’s their call. What I have a problem with is them trashing those who do and trying to hold back the transition with miss information.

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      Tell that to Toyota shareholders...

    • @phillyphil1513
      @phillyphil1513 Před rokem

      re: "What I have a problem with is them trashing those who do and trying to hold back the tradition with miss information." are you certain the problem is "mis-information"...? or does the problem maybe center around the possibility the Japanese may simply be SMARTER than you...? I mean it's not a stretch to say the Japanese in the East have a proven track record of being able to OUTSMART us in the West for the last 50 years. yeah so one has the ask the tough questions at this point in History, Q: how is it exactly that an entire nation of people have supposedly become DUMB practically overnight...? A: they haven't, no, it is simply WE who are the dummies.

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      @@phillyphil1513 the Japanese have moved too slow to EV's so the Korean's and Chinese are eating their lunch.

  • @ChicagoBob123
    @ChicagoBob123 Před rokem +1

    GM can't build at scale. And the market is there. We want Evs now.

    • @phillyphil1513
      @phillyphil1513 Před rokem

      re: "We want Evs now" sure but name a point in History when greedy/self-absorbed Consumers DIDN'T want everything "now"...?

    • @ChicagoBob123
      @ChicagoBob123 Před rokem +1

      @Philly Phil how about the big three ignoring what the consumer wanted. They are too big to fail and after seeing 13000 markup on a Ford Maverick on a dealer lot, I won't miss em. They deserve to fail for losing focus on making cars for the consumer.

  • @jamespatrick5930
    @jamespatrick5930 Před rokem

    Why go people say “yea-no” ?

  • @davidfoley8329
    @davidfoley8329 Před rokem

    Hate how Stellantis (or Fiat Chrysler for that matter) seems to be running Chrysler Corporation. Dodge and Chrysler are not dead. They have just been starved of product. Those decisions were deliberate.
    Projecting a half decade out, or telling stories about 'dreamboat' ideas, won't save them if they don't get on with making something new. And the Hornet better not be the last of it.

  • @davidfoley8329
    @davidfoley8329 Před rokem +1

    "Nobody plugs their car in"? Farcical at best.

  • @NewCastleIndiana
    @NewCastleIndiana Před rokem +1

    That was one of the best balanced interaction that I’ve seen. Except Dan absolutely must wire up whatever computer he’s going to be using and test it out and get professional. And stop moving around. But one of the things that made this great was John’s participation. I kind of hate to say, but without Gary I liked it a little bit more. Just being honest.

  • @carloorelli3538
    @carloorelli3538 Před rokem

    Bonkers

  • @BrogeKilrain
    @BrogeKilrain Před rokem

    All those EV guys can wear quartz watches and polyester suits 😆😆 real
    Men want their car to roar like a lion 🦁

  • @allenaxp6259
    @allenaxp6259 Před rokem +3

    Tesla MY will be the most sold car model on planet Earth in year 2023. Tesla is transforming into an energy company. They’re more than manufacturing and charging infrastructure. They collect data through FSD, they’re building out battery storage all over the world.

    • @normt430
      @normt430 Před rokem

      Tesla will be a niche player by next decade!

  • @gmv0553
    @gmv0553 Před rokem +2

    You talk about how slow GM is coming out with their new electric vehicles but do not mention how long we have been waiting for the Tesla Cybertruck and Roadster! Look how quick the Hummer came out and it was introduced after Tesla promised the Cybertruck.

    • @aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669
      @aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669 Před rokem +3

      It was all about access to numbers if batteries, now that Tesla is working on the 4680 cells plus othe battery suppliers like LG, CATL and Panasonic , the CYBRTRK and Semi will be in production soon.A few hundred Hummers don't mean much. Mary Barra full of promises maybe GM will be "Number One in EVs by 2025 with 500,000 units " ../S

    • @phillyphil1513
      @phillyphil1513 Před rokem

      @@aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669 re: "the CYBRTRK and Semi will be in production soon..." yup mass manufactured alongside Beth Holmes "Edison" Blood Testing machine.

    • @aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669
      @aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669 Před rokem +1

      @@phillyphil1513 laugh you must, Elon always has the last laugh, short TSLA if you got the balls, & @ your peril.

  • @KTPurdy
    @KTPurdy Před rokem +1

    You would think Tesla's margins would be getting Toyota's attention

    • @davidmccarthy6061
      @davidmccarthy6061 Před rokem

      That's an illusion. Let's have Tesla make the huge volume and breadth of vehicle types that Toyota produces around the world. Then we can compare numbers.

    • @KTPurdy
      @KTPurdy Před rokem +2

      @@davidmccarthy6061 Tesla continues to grow their numbers each year with increasing margins, it's no illusion.

    • @benjaminsmith2287
      @benjaminsmith2287 Před rokem +2

      You didn't hear the announcement months ago from Akio Toyoda that Toyota is benchmarking Tesla for margins, manufacturing and platform?

    • @dansanger5340
      @dansanger5340 Před rokem

      Tesla had great margins when they were gouging consumers with $67k Model Ys. Now that they are being forced to cut prices to more realistic levels, their margins will return to earth.

  • @brandoYT
    @brandoYT Před rokem +2

    Fisker knows how to fail. How many times - 3 or 4 times??

    • @Mike-Minion
      @Mike-Minion Před rokem +1

      vaporware pros 🤣

    • @GaiaTheorist82
      @GaiaTheorist82 Před rokem

      How many times did Apple fail? Marvel? Karma design is still in production over ten years later, dealership right by me. If y’all had points… you might have points, sounds more like you’re Elon simps talking out of your rears, lol

    • @Mike-Minion
      @Mike-Minion Před rokem

      @@GaiaTheorist82 no sorry. but it does sound like you have some money invested in fisker.
      good luck.

    • @GaiaTheorist82
      @GaiaTheorist82 Před rokem

      @@Mike-Minion Don't have money for investments, but I do have an order on the car, as do a few others I know, since it's the only affordable, decently equipped electric vehicle being put out for working class folk.

    • @GaiaTheorist82
      @GaiaTheorist82 Před rokem

      @@Mike-Minion people said the same about Canoo too... right before they got contracts with NASA, and Walmart.... whoopsie! Ocean already exists. Can't call something "vaporware" when 100 of them are made a day. I've already sat in it.

  • @jeff-jo6fs
    @jeff-jo6fs Před rokem +4

    let the market decide which fuels people will use

    • @davidmccarthy6061
      @davidmccarthy6061 Před rokem

      Electric only. It is already everywhere. Gasoline is a dead fuel walking, and hydrogen will never be. But the eFuel will be good for the old classics to keep the Jay Leno's of the world happy.

    • @benjaminsmith2287
      @benjaminsmith2287 Před rokem

      Not happening. Governments are doing so.

    • @dansanger5340
      @dansanger5340 Před rokem +1

      Look up negative externalities. Even the most conservative economist understands that the market fails in the face of negative externalities. It requires regulation.

    • @GaiaTheorist82
      @GaiaTheorist82 Před rokem

      If they allowed that, we have had EVs as an available option over 20 years ago, and they’d be a lot more widespread now.

  • @dewiz9596
    @dewiz9596 Před rokem

    Well. . . The Saudis know the oil will run out. . . so they will go to a non-fossil-fuel transportation infrastructure. Latest designs have wide-tracking for sand travel. . . discussions are ongoing regarding whether to use one hump or two. . .

  • @SomeTechGuy666
    @SomeTechGuy666 Před rokem +1

    The problem for the exotic manufacturers is that their ICE dinosaur products are dinosaurs. Who wants a slow ICE vehicle when you can have a superfast EV.

  • @danharold3087
    @danharold3087 Před rokem

    John 100% Chinese cars are jobs programs.
    When auto making is seen first as a job program your sunk.
    GM and Ford etc still need to buy into designing cars that can be easily manufactured.
    Is the Ultimum platform too complex ? Too costly.
    GM BrightDrop a bright spot for GM!
    MegaCastings! Who better to use them than Tesla aka the green energy company?

  • @mikedx2706
    @mikedx2706 Před rokem +1

    How can anyone build an automaking plant in Saudi Arabia when there is no native population of autoworkers? The Saudi's will be importing a huge number of people from the developing world to work in the Saudi auto plants, thereby creating innumerable cultural, religious and societal problems for the Saudi ruling class. Will the Saudi's be housing those autoworkers in decommissioned shipping containers?

  • @howebrad4601
    @howebrad4601 Před rokem +1

    I just don't see all these people dan says that want to buy an ev. Where I live we buy a lot of pickups and suvs, and I know of literally nobody who wants an ev. The perception here where we have super cold winters is that they have not enough range, even worse when towing, aren't made for cold weather, and take too long to charge

  • @earthkeepr7591
    @earthkeepr7591 Před rokem

    Toyota is in trouble if they don’t make a deal with Tesla for their software

    • @WAN2TREE4
      @WAN2TREE4 Před rokem

      Software is one problem, their hardware is also a problem. Their current EV car is based on old tech that's why they are starting from scratch.