Case Study: Quad-State Tornadic Supercell - December 10-11, 2021
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- čas přidán 3. 08. 2024
- In-depth case study of the historic tornadic supercell that ravaged parts of four states - Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky - on December 10-11, 2021. To determine just how this storm was able to sustain itself for such a long period of time, I discuss:
*Changes in model forecasts leading up to the event,
*The background synoptic and mesoscale environment before and during the event,
*Key behaviors/characteristics of the supercell/tornado, including whether or not the tornado lifted in western Tennessee, and
*Analogs with similar long-track supercells/tornadoes and how the compare/contrast to the December 10-11 event.
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
2:22 Model data
8:02 Background synoptic/mesoscale environment
18:03 Event progression: initiation, organization, and tornadogenesis
27:37 Storm cycle or continuous path?
36:28 Event progression (continued)
40:46 Analogs: Tri-State Tornado
45:00 Analogs: March 12, 2006
50:18 Analogs: April 27, 2011
53:24 Conclusions: why such a long-track supercell? - Věda a technologie
Hi Trey! Almost 2 years since this happened already. On that evening, I was defending my thesis, which, ironically, partially addressed simulations of cyclic tornadogenesis at SoM-OU. It was a really impressive event
This was extremely interesting… I watched this while getting ready this morning and i only watched it because I have a weird obsession with tornadoes but this was so informative and very easy to understand even for someone with next to no knowledge of the actual science behind forecasting
Thanks so much for the kind words; I really appreciate it!
@@ConvectiveChronicles I live near Jonesboro Arkansas it was too close for comfort.
@@ConvectiveChronicles just want to second kristens comment. Your explanations are phenomenal, and this is one of my faves alongside storm spotter Mike’s el Reno analysis. Would love to see more videos like this!
@@gd2234_ Thank you for the kind words! I definitely have more videos like this in the pipeline.
@@ConvectiveChronicles so happy to hear it! Can’t wait! Just subbed so I don’t miss anything!
I'm glad that I was alive to witness a storm of this caliber and historic. I have foggy memory of the May 3rd because I was a kid then but this in my adult life to witness is just incredible.
Great video. I think I'll be binge watching many videos from this channel
Thank you!!
Really enjoyed this video! Great & in-depth analysis of probably one of our more prolific cyclic supercells we have had in nearly a decade!! -Stephen
Thank you sir, much appreciated!
Appreciate the work brother! I live in Southern Ohio and was getting very nervous about this storm. God bless everyone that lived in the path of this storm.
Thanks so much for watching! Glad that storm fizzled out before it got to you!
Lmao my house was a quarter mile from the one that hit defiance
This is a fantastic analysis of a full on historic event. The closest event to this on record was the 1925 “Tri State” tornado, which probably also cycled more than once, but we will never truly know. Great work!
Thanks so much!
Great work man! I've been looking all over for post-event discussions on what happened and why it happened the way it did. This was exactly that, plus more. Thank you!
Thank you for watching!
this whole event was extremely groundbreaking and heartbreaking tbh. so much happening at once all at the worst possible places and times.
Thank you for the detailed analysis,! As a fellow "weather weeny," I'm very impressed with your approach and conclusions.
Thanks so much for watching!
Great video! Thank you for taking the time to be so detailed about this event. I'm just east of Dallas and got some pea sized hail. I watched it from there and it became a monster storm.
Thanks so much for watching! It sure was a beast.
Awesome watch, love the detail and explanation of the whole event. Great work!
Thanks so much!
I was at home during the Bowling Green Tornadoes. The main funnel was maybe 1/2 mile wide, multi-vortex, and LOUD. It came within 3 blocks of my home along the right side of the damage path.
Wow; glad you made it out ok!
@@ConvectiveChronicles you have no idea what that was like. We had 2 minutes warning. The sirens went off after it was already in the city. The TV station could see it on radar, there was a huge debris ball on radar, and they could have sounded the sirens sooner. Don't know why this happened, but it had already killed 7 kids on Creekwood before they had sounded the alarm.
Still can’t believe it’s been over a year. I remember watching every second on radar and I will remember this event for a long time. It feels like it happened yesterday. I hope nothing like this happens again. Had this happened in April or May my god.. we could have had something similar to the 1974 super outbreak.
Very informative
Thanks for watching!
The massive Phil Campbell tornado kicked booty for 132 miles without a pit stop. and was booking it up to 73. MPH. it has been said by many that the phil Campbell tornado is what the 1925 tornado probably looked like and could give some perspective.
This was an AWESOME case study, Trey! It IS VERY interesting that there was no scarring for the short duration. It sure re-generated quickly! Amazing to see the temps/dews rush up to keep the cell well fed!! Thank you for taking the time to do this analysis/case study! Top-notch information here!! Stay safe, Trey...
Thanks so much! At the very least, I bet there was very strong low-level rotation at the time it lifted.
eye opening data here! Im a novice and never studied meteorology but i love this subject. I learned a lot. Very impressed with the analysis and so suprised about having data from the storm in 1925 !
Thank you for watching! Glad you learned a few things!
Stayed up all night in Ireland watching this unfold and the tornado that hit bowling green that night, truly remarkable tornado
Such a long and awesome video for such a small channel. Well done! I hope this brings you the viewers you deserve!
Thank you for the kind words!
Thanks. This finally got me motivated to learn the technical details of meteorology again. Happy new year.
Awesome to hear that! Thanks for watching; happy new year to you, too!
I always enjoy these case studies, thanks!
Really interesting and informative analysis, easy to follow and understand. Nice work! I followed the storm live so it was great to get this post analysis about the science and meteorological information.
Thanks so much, Rhi!
Very glad this showed up in my feed! Took an aviation weather class a bit back and was eager to learn more so ill be following your stuff closely. Also my fence was blown over in this storm and I'm not even mad because it was fascinating!
Thanks so much for watching!
Well done! Your reflections were informative as well as enjoyable to watch.
Thank you; I appreciate it!
Fascinating break down, great work 👍
Thanks so much!
I watched one storm chasers channel. He got turned around in Mayfield and ended up nearly in it. Scary stuff. He's running 80 to get away and a cop running lights and siren pass him like he's standing.
Great video! I got caught up in mayfield when this one hit. I wasn’t even looking for trouble, I was leaving band practice. I was on the road when this hit me. Car was rolled and I got pelted with debris from this beast. Didn’t even realize it was already on top of me
Thank you! Wow, I’m glad you made it out ok!
Great work. Love this.
Thank you!
YES!!! i was waiting for someone to do a "break down" on this
instantly subbed!
Thank you; I really appreciate it!
Excellent work! I love all the different radar uses and you explaining what exactly is happening with them. I haven't looked at what other topics you've covered but I'd love a Joplin study. Or the 2011 super outbreak, or it compared to the 74 super outbreak. Regardless I know this took you a while and just wanted to say thanks.
Thanks so much for the kind words! I do have some plans to upload some more case studies of past events; keep an eye out for those over the coming months.
@@ConvectiveChronicles will do and I subbed your channel.
I'm just an enthusiast, but your explanations are clear and concise. Thanks a lot man.
Thank you; I appreciate that!
So fascinating to just witness that we know so much yet so little about tornadoes.
Truly insane.
Thanks for the recap, love that, have a great day/night from France ;)
Thank you for watching! Same to you!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks !!
Extremely good video i live in the UK but my partner lives in Louisville KY not at all far from Bowling Green where the big one came through or finished left me with so many questions specifically how and why such a violent tornado formed in the middle of December and travelled so far answered all of my questions and taught me much much more 🙂 i watched the whole hour
Thanks so much for the kind words and for sticking around for the whole hour!
@@ConvectiveChronicles no worries for better words id say you got me "hooked" 😬😅 literally watching your most recent upload as we speak crazy whats going on storms have caused power lines in Louisville to come down sparking a wildfire destroying 500 homes and more possible tornados further south worlds going crazy 😐
@@shadow9520 Dang! You got that right; it's sure been an active last few weeks weather wise.
I live in Tiptonville samburg did however take a direct hit as well as we had loss of life here at REELFOOT lake
Hello trey I really enjoy your work and breakdown of this event im late to the party, for me I truly think the Mayfield damage should have been rated EF-5 all day long,, I know im not a professional like Tim Marshall but I know in spots in Mayfield several well built homes were sheared off there foundations pulled bolts out of the cement bases. But that's just me Continue doing your valuable work on this channel as I've learned a lot from you. much respect bro!!!
Thank you so much! Yeah, I could easily see Mayfield having produced EF5.
Great video! I’ve been bingeing your analysis videos (even taking some notes) really learning a lot about the ins and outs of storms to become a better storm spotter.
Thank you!!
I wouldn't believe the day the tri-state got replace to a quad-state tornado setting a new record.
Although I scared for the people who went through this nightmare & it worried me for those who lost their lives & those who got injured.
My condolences to the family of the lost ones.
This was an amazing case study!!! Please do more of these off of memory etc you have from the events and also going back into archives from sites like the spc website! Can you do ones from April 15 & 27 2011,2013 El Reno and Moore tornadoes,the 2020 Nashville tornado please? Also can you do an informational video on how to read skew t and hodographs for beginners and intermediate level people if that makes sense?
Thanks so much! I have actually been strongly considering doing more of these case studies of past events, as well as doing some educational/informational videos on meteorology, such as reading skew-t/hodographs. Keep an eye out for these in the near future and over the coming months!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Would absolutely love to see these!
Layperson and Skywarn spotter; much of it still over my head but found it informative and interesting
Ok that caught me off guard, with your “weather weenie” comment 😂 I hope that’s what you tell other people you do for a living.
You are amazing!
Thanks so much!
I would love to see you do a case study on the March 1 1997 tornado that destroyed Arkadelphia Arkansas and followed the I-30 corridor up into Saline county and into Little Rock and beyond. That was a long track high end EF-4. I lived through it in Saline county and it's still talked about to this day.
Thanks for pointing this case out to me; I'll take a look. I plan on doing these case study videos for different past events, and I'll definitely look into this one.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Van Buren/Ft Smith,AR 1996 is another one.
I've been studying weather and forecasting for years and years, and I must say I learned more in this video than I have in years of observation. At the end, when you point out that the storm was knocked off-of pique form for unknown reasons, I am reminded that microclimate can have a sometimes significant impact. I live on Lake Michigan and we're reminded of just how much energy can be lost in the atmosphere (or gained) once you pass a physical boundry ~10 miles inland. The natural boundry marks the place where the lake tends to lose influence. It makes for (normally) stronger storms inland that fizzle as the atmosphere changes...or occasionally storms are amplified by causing more lift than would otherwise be there. In any event, the point is that these subtilities don't generally make it into model runs and it almost feels like the forecast nuances are implemented by humans rather than model presentation.
Thanks so much! You make a really good point; this localized variance in the environment is often too small to be deciphered by models and can make the difference between a tornado having a continuous path or one that has a break in between.
Great video
Thank you!
Perhaps the tornado briefly lifted as it crossed the river as it literally got cold feet. Maybe a brief weakening of the updraft for a couple of minutes decreased the vorticity stretching. This could have triggered a down-burst in the rear flank as you said. And then as it moved further north east the inflow stabilized again and the vorticity got stretched again. So probably a topographic reason and thermal anomaly of the river and moist regions surrounding the river.
You did an outstanding job with this meteorological breakdown of the Dec 10 weather tragedy, however, for some of the simpleton world audience, I'd suggest in the future to correlate the highly versed, in depth terminology, into a more basic meaning understanding.
It was wild living through it. Thankfully the shelter we went to was untouched. We went to Kenlake State Resort Park because their basement has a bomb/tornado shelter. We almost directly in between the Quad State monster and the one that went through Ft Campbell the same night. One of the scariest nights of my life. Our children still have Ptsd and storm anxiety.
We were watching as it hit Mayfield and when our meteorologist stopped everything and just said “pray.” I knew it was bad. He is an atheist.
My brother was an employee at the MCP candle factory. He lost gis best friend that night. He was with us with his wife and girls. Had called in that night because we had been warned how bad it was going to be and made plans to be in the shelter, but when they were calling him under the rubble begging for help. To come get them he was ready to rush out and go remove debris. We didn’t let him. But his friend passed away moments before they got her uncovered 😢 all they kept saying on the phone was “Kayla’s dead!” And screaming. He hasn’t been the same. He was devastated. She had been a friend through one of the darkest periods of his life.
Dang, that's very sad to hear. Thank you for sharing.
The is was really interesting. I’m a lay person, just interested in tornadoes and curious about how and why they form, so this was way over my head in most respects. But, still, enough here that I could follow that helps me understand a bit more about what happened Friday night.
I’m in Illinois, just east of St Louis. The Amazon warehouse that was hit is about 12 mile miles north of me.
Thanks so much for watching; glad those tornadoes near St. Louis missed you!
This obvious continuation is why Amazon and the candle factory should suffer legal repercussions for not sending people home well before impact. So many lost, how sad and avoidable.
One of the worst tornado disasters in a good minute. Looking forward to seeing these towns recover.
Mayfield still hasn't. I don't think Dawson springs is totally back on its feet either.
I'm from twenty minutes north of Mayfield. I watched that from touchdown til it dissipated. It really looked like it was going to hook north and hit me. I was living in a trailer with nowhere safe to go, with my two teenage boys and I was so worried about the weather that day, and the parameters were so bad that I got us a hotel room. A hotel was safer than a trailer.
Glad you all made it out ok.
There was actually a lot of funnel clouds around the Amagon area in Arkansas during the beginning.
Awesome!
Thank you Will!
29:08 The Dayton, Ohio EF4 from May 27, 2011 was absolutely the bottom example. The initial EF4 tornado moving E fell behind the parent mesocyclone, turned SE into Riverside. Then a new EF3 tornado took over and moved into Beavercreek. Had about a one, maybe two-minute window of two tornadoes in progress from the one storm.
Are you referring to the May 27, 2019 Dayton event? If so, I believe you're correct. That storm had a very interesting evolution.
Informative & well put together case study. Just after said event too. I wonder if the Mississippi River had anything to do with the tornado lifting? Thanks for sharing!
Thanks so much! That's a great point; I'm not too familiar with that area, but terrain definitely could've played a role.
@@ConvectiveChronicles It's just interesting the tornado happened to lift right after the river. There's also a large lake in that area. I know tubes can travel over water. I've witnessed a couple on lake Michigan. Also watched Sand Springs tornado travel right along the Arkansas River in 2015. With that said I also know big body's of water can stabilize an air mass. Like lake mi. for example. I wonder if the Mississippi is big enough & cold enough at the time to throw a kink in the supercells updraft? Even if it was just for a moment. Thanks again for the video. Happy Holidays!
@@TAStormChasing That's a really interesting hypothesis! I'm not sure the tornadic circulation would've spent enough time over the river to make a significant difference, but I think it's a hypothesis definitely worth digging into further. Happy holidays to you, too!
At 50:47 you have big kahuna of tornadoes along with the big kahuna of weather forecasters, Mr. James Spann himself! I always say you know its going to be a bad day when you see James Spann on TV standing in his suspenders.
Spann is one of my favorites!
Another long track tornado went just south of me through Dresden Tn. It sustained F3 damage
I work at Titan tire in union city Tn , the factory is close to the Tennessee and Kentucky boarder we watched the storm pass our west go behind us and then , when knew a tornado was north east of us headed towards Cayce ky and then hitting north of Fulton hitting Mayfield dead on target. Samburg did have heavy damage, one death but a lot of damage after samburg no real damage happens again until kayce KY so there ya go
Great discussion....the powerhouse supercell had so much positive background parameters...largely the lack of impacts from rain cooled air or other storm interference. I wonder if those earlier tornado warned supercells left a vorticity "trail" for the later mega supercell ? Maybe an enhanced mesoscale boundary??
Thanks for watching! It's possible; I think it was simply a confluence of extremely favorable parameters with a nearly purely discrete storm mode, a combo that doesn't happen all that often.
Man, you do these really well. If you dont teach or document for a living, I should point out that you should consider teaching or documenting for a living.
Wow, thank you so much for the kind words! I really appreciate it!
Very good stuff and great detail. Great work, though I don't understand some of the terminology. So what about the tornado track for the storm that hit Bowling Green? The timing and the tracks were so similar.
Thanks for watching! The Bowling Green tornado was from a separate storm that also produced multiple long-track tornadoes. Very similar environment, although the storm was less discrete than the quad-state storm.
Id love to see an analysis of the april 8th 1998 F5 tornado that went through Oak Grove/ Sylvan Springs/ Mcdonald Chapel Alabama.
Big shoutout to all the storm chasers who took photos while dealing with the hazards of chasing a violent tornado at night.
Seeing that TBSS and realizing it was from debris is the first time a radar image has literally made me sick to my stomach.
Same…pretty unreal to see
This was an awesome analysis! Also what do you think of the radar picking up debris being lifted 30,000 FT in the air, in the context of the EF4 rating? Do you think that there could have been winds exceeding 200MPH that never touched the ground? I know the tornado was rated EF4, but I don't understand why considering what iv heard. From what iv heard and seen in photos it looks like some very large buildings were completely swept off of their foundations. In addition to that it seems that there was a lot of windrowing. If you understand why the Mayfield tornado was rated EF4 instead of EF5 I would be interested in hearing why. Thanks in advance if you answer my questions.
@@dustinpixey3768 I know it's technically preliminary but they seem pretty set on it being EF4.
Thanks for watching! I have a lot of thoughts on the EF scale and the rating of these tornadoes, but I wanted to focus on the science in this video. Sorry if I ramble on here, just going to jot down some of my thoughts as they come to me…
The EF scale is purely a damage scale, so unfortunately radar data can’t be factored in (yet, at least). I do think there were 200+ mph winds off the surface, but of course, friction near the surface allows the wind to decrease in the lower levels. When I first saw the damage photos, I thought there was no way this would be rated anything other than an EF5. However, it appears that most of the buildings and homes were built improperly (improperly or not anchored to foundations, etc.). I still think there were some possible non-traditional EF5 damage indicators, such as cracked foundations, ground scouring, etc., but it looks like the NWS believes that these tornadoes were EF4s. I think the radar data, including the lofted debris, suggests that this was no doubt a high-end EF4+ tornado, but it looks like the damage indicators suggested EF4 versus EF5. With that said, I do think the EF scale may be broken…if the highest level (EF5) can’t be attained, then the scale is broken. Just because there weren’t properly built buildings in the path doesn’t mean that a tornado didn’t have EF5 winds. Also with that said, a rating placed on a tornado (EF4 or EF5) doesn’t really matter at the end of the day…lives were impacted and people passed away whether the winds were 190 mph or 205 mph. Definitely an interesting case and one that will be studied for a long time.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks for answering my question. Your absolutely right, the lives impacted is by far the most important thing. Wether it's helping them rebuild, helping financially, or at least wishing them luck. Regarding the rating though, seeing the EF4 rating made me question wether I understand the EF scale or not. I know the EF scale is based on ground damage, but unless the radar is just wrong, debris being thrown
@@ConvectiveChronicles I do understand the whole poorly built home thing, but I thought I saw some pictures of some rather large buildings that were completely swept away with nothing left. I guess I assumed they were well built. Also obviously winds higher in the atmosphere are going to be stronger, but I wonder if in rare instances there could be vortices inside the tornado that are particularly intense and never hit the ground. If memory serves there was a tornado in 2016 where Doppler radar recorded wind speeds over 200 mph, but ground surveys only showed EF2 winds. My hypothesis for that tornado has always been that there may have been an EF5 funnel cloud but not an EF5 tornado. That the vortices that hit the ground were weaker, then the ones the radar recorded. I offer up this cautious hypothesis as possibly affecting the Mayfield tornado as well.
@@paradoxicalpoet1525 So unfortunately, we're just not at the point where we can correlate radar characteristics of a tornado/supercell to a certain EF-scale rating. Just because debris was lofted above 30,000 feet does not mean that there were 200 mph winds somewhere in the tornado cyclone, and it does not mean that the tornado is an EF5. The only thing we can gather from that is that the tornado cyclone was associated with an extremely strong updraft, which doesn't tell us anything about EF-scale rating. There is research being done about trying to correlate radar characteristics with tornado intensity, as well as rumors about adding some sort of radar component to the EF-scale when there's radar data available, but we're just not quite there yet and, thus, have to rely on damage alone for the time being. I think the experts got the rating right for these tornadoes, but I do think there's a strong possibility they did have EF5 winds. But again, I think the scale is broken. Thanks again for watching!
I wonder if the tornado outbreak in march98 in minnesota had same type setup that outbreak had multiple tornadoes in it's track biggest being a f4 around comfrey minnesota I was trained to be a skywarn observer and they had showed the footage of the st peter mn f3 which had multiple vortices circling around the parent tornado warning some of the debris from st peter was found as far away as Rice lake wisconsin the whole track of the event had same type track sw to ne
AMAZING video. A few questions:
How do you read Sounding charts?
When you go the quad radar view, what is that all showing? I know the upper left is precip, and lower left is debris, but what about the others?
Wouldn't thunderstorms enhance the tornado due to the moisture? Why would it weaken when the tornado has the warm mass moving upwards in it?
I always wanted to be a meteorologist but I couldn't do the math in college- so I switched fields. I apologize if I am incorrect on anything.
Thanks so much! I'll try to answer your questions in order below:
1) The sounding chart, or skew-t, is a complex diagram, but I'll try to give you a simplified overview of it: The red line is the environmental temperature, and the green line is the environmental dew point, both of which are measured as the weather balloon ascends in the atmosphere. The closer those two lines are to each other at a certain point, the more moist that level of the atmosphere is along the balloon's ascent. The brown, dashed line is the parcel temperature, which is essentially the temperature of a hypothetical blob of air if it were to rise from the surface. The total area between the parcel temperature curve and the environmental temperature line is a value called convective available potential energy (CAPE), a measure of instability in the atmosphere. If the parcel curve is to the right of the environmental temperature line (i.e. parcel is warmer than the environment), you have positive CAPE (unstable atmosphere); if the parcel curve is to the left of the environmental temperature line (i.e. parcel is cooler than the environment), you have negative CAPE, or convective inhibition (stable atmosphere). The farther apart the parcel temperature is from the environmental temperature at a certain point, the more unstable or stable the atmosphere is at that point.
2) In the quad-view radar imagery, the top left is reflectivity (intensity of the radar targets, i.e. precipitation), the top right is velocity (wind speed estimates; red denotes particles going away from the radar, and green is particles going toward the radar), the bottom left is correlation coefficient (how similar the radar targets are; can identify lofted debris), and the bottom right is spectrum width (basically how different the velocities are within a radar pixel - tornadoes are usually associated with higher values).
3) When a bunch of showers/storms fire up near an ongoing tornadic supercell, the precipitation from the showers can interfere with the strong updraft of the supercell by introducing a cold, rain-filled downdraft in the area where the tornado is. Tornadoes feed on unimpeded warm, moist inflow, so when that gets cut off by cooler, rain-filled downdrafts, the rotating updraft will often weaken, and the tornado will dissipate.
Hope this helps!
@@ConvectiveChronicles it does!! It's gonna take time for the skew-t chart to learn, but I really appreciate the detailed response so late at night. Thank you tons!!!
@@aarronvanburen8612 You bet!
1,608 views • Dec 16, 2021 • In-depth case study of the historic four states - Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky - on December, 2021
So many major tornado events in KY and TN seem to have had only one or two super cells. Most recent was 2020 Nashville - Cookeville. Wonder if most of those were also more neutral tilt?
That's a great question. I do know the Nashville event was associated with a fairly low-amplitude trough and much weaker forcing, leading to a bit more of a discrete mode, similar to this event.
@@ConvectiveChronicles specific events would be May 1917 (Far sw KY), May 1933 Russell Springs KY / Beatty Swamp TN, 1971 Gosser Ridge. A couple violent tornadoes in overall small volume tor outbreaks
Here after 11/29/22 is modeled to have a very similar surface pattern just with dewpoints limited further south
Uploading a forecast video right now where I highlight that exact analog. Looks like a fairly similar setup.
Great analysis! Question: why wouldn't such a large body of very cool water such as the Mississippi River cause the dystruption seen in this tornado? Cool water effects the mix of warm and cool air, plus moisture level in tornadic conditions is key. I think it's kind of a no brainer why it stalled out a bit going over the river. But I'm no scientist. I do know tornadoes well enough to know a sudden inflow of cool air would disrupt the core and a sudden intake of moisture, unless it starts out in water which is a kind of different creature all together. No one has ever seen an F-5 tornado spout... unless of course you basically call a CAT 5 hurricane such a thing - which I would...lol. thanks for all this hard work! Smiles and blessings...
Thanks so much for watching! I do think the Mississippi River hypothesis is an interesting one and should be investigated further. I do have my doubts about it; I'm not sure the tornado spent enough time over the water to make a significant difference. If it was a big/wide lake and the tornado spent a significant amount of time over the water, I could maybe see it, but I'm just not sure that the tornado spent enough time over the river to disrupt it. Plus, it maintained strong tornado intensity for several scans after it cleared the river fully; I'd expect to see more of an immediate change in the intensity/structure of the mesocyclone/tornado if the river did make a big difference. Nonetheless, it's an interesting hypothesis. Thanks again!
Inflow into the TVS was going right over reelfoot lake when it briefly dissipated over NW TN. It's not deep but it is fairly large and this time of year and this time of day the air would of been cooled quite a bit going over the lake. I'm curious if the storm just took a gulp of the cooler air and it disrupted the vorticity stream feeding the tornado.
That’s a great point and definitely a possibility.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Just after I made this comment I watched a lecture from Rich Thompson over on the NOAA Weather Partners channel that discussed concepts related to this topic. This was a statistical analysis of verified TORs over several years compared to false positive/unconfirmed TORs over several years. One of the key findings is how sensitive the TVS area is to temperature in the RFD and surrounding parcel of air that encloses the Tornado, or future tornado. The RFD is of course rain cooled, but if it gets too cold it greatly limits the stream wise vorticity sheet from spinning the tornado up, similar to how its easy to mix up warmer butter, but not cold butter. In context this is more about the LCL height and if the rain shaft is simply so tall it has more area and time to cool the RFD. Big hailers can create a similar critical cooling in the RFD that can disrupt tornadogenesis. In this case I could certainly see an argument of the terrain, specifically the surface area of Reelfoot lake, disrupting the storm either by cooling the RFD slightly more than as it passes over the lake as it twists around the meso into the tornadic surface circulation or more simply, the induced surface winds from the storm just advected the parcel of air over the lake right into the TVS area. In any case This accounts for the sudden spin down as well as the rapid reformation once that relatively small parcel was mixed out or the RFD returned to the previous steady state temp. The cell also passed exactly over the perfect spot in relation to the lake to allow such a relatively tiny amount of thermal flux to have maximum affect on tornado production.
Sorry to blather, I just find micro climates and terrain induced changes to storms extremely interesting. I know this is often abused and becomes folk lore in some areas that hills, rivers, etc 'protect' them from tornadoes and said belief is completely false. That said there are certainly ways such things can affect storms given the right parameters and studying those is interesting. I watched your other video where you mentioned how some river valleys can act as funnels to intensify tornadic intensity and frequency. Would love to see more cases on the topic in general.
@@hgbugalou Exactly right; tornado maintenance is closely tied to thermodynamic characteristics of the RFD and inflow. The lake easily could've provided cold inflow that would've allowed the tornado to weaken quickly and then reform once it had regained warm/moist inflow. These microclimate/terrain influences are so important in storm behavior and should be investigated more.
I live in Mayfield…luckily it missed my house as I lived about 2 miles south of its path
Wow, glad you made it out okay!
Question. During the roping out phase of the tornado-genesis, would the circulation on radar show weakening & making broader circulation instead of keeping a tight formation?
In short, could it have went from an EF-4 to EF-1 (or even EF-0), then the parent storm gains its strength back, re-intensifying the tornado. As you can tell I’m not a meteorologist. Just been fascinated with tornadoes since 1978-79. But this particular storm has had me baffled since I’ve watched unfold that day. About it cycling. I would appreciate some insight on this.
A circulation does weaken and broaden out during its dissipation phase. In this case, it does appear that the tornado did dissipate completely for a moment before cycling up as it went into KY.
The six state supercell still holds the record, everyone apparently forgot about that
True, but that one didn't produce the strong/long-track tornadoes that the Quad-State storm did.
But it's interesting how so many extraordinary events haven't been associated with negatively tilted troughs
I also don't think the Tri-State was continuous. But I think it still holds the record, between 151 and 174 miles give or take.
@@F5Storm1 Tri-State was probably a tornado family, but it is a pretty good analog for the Quad-State case.
@@ConvectiveChronicles absolutely
I love how he said it was amazing to watch on radar😂 as someone who got hit by it it was indeed not amazing 🤣
I’m sorry you were impacted. Of course, I never want these storms to cause damage. But at the same time, as a meteorologist, I’m fascinated by the science behind these storms and tornadoes. From a scientific perspective, this storm is a gold mine of information to study to make us better at forecasting and nowcasting significant tornadic supercells.
Imo, if they did a more in depth survey, they would find it would've been a continuous path. Would a weaker EF0 or 1 really show a debris ball? Obviously it can, but it's not as likely.
Also, there's no way a tornado with a debris ball looking like it did over Mayfield KY is not an EF5
That's certainly possible, but based on the radar data and lack of damage indicators in that area, I'm just not sure there was a continuous path.
are you a forecaster by chance allot of the terminology is way above my head where can i find info on thatloool i hear this in wikpedia whats quote wind rowing i also want to know what the little flags are im obssesed with severe weather and youre show i guess im a weather freak lmfdao much love stay safe happy holidaze yall
Thank you for watching! I’d recommend starting with the NWS Jet Stream modules at www.weather.gov/jetstream/. They will help you get down the basics and terminology. The wind flags, or barbs, show how fast the wind is blowing at a certain location. The full-length flags are 10 knots, half flags are 5 knots, and you add up all the values associated with each flag on a wind barb. Thanks again; happy holidays to you too!
You may have studded tarnados but I have been watching them in Arkansas for 63 year's and when I saw it on the ground I told some other people who took shelter here that it was a good mile wide and maybe a mile and a half. That was the 2 nd one. The 3 one was about half the size and hit Agusta. I was watching the radar and I don't think it is two, it was the same tarnado
It looks like it was two different tornadoes, and the NWS damage surveys confirm this.
Did the warm sector have alot of real estate for the supercell to last for a long time? I know during april 27th that occurred.
Yes, it was definitely a very large warm sector, meaning it had a lot of real estate to work with.
I'm not sure I understand why the amount of states a tornado went through means anything. Measuring the distance, time on the ground or strength makes sense but referencing states only explains where it happened.
It's just to show how unique the path of this storm was.
I live about a mile from Cayce Ky that got hit by the tornado. It's pronounced Kay-sea, I went to woodland mills which is on the border of KY and TN where the tornado would have crossed on its way to Cayce. In the area where it would of crossed its nothing but open fields/ farmland. Nothing their to loft for a good distance. The tornado did pick up in strength and die down like it was breathing. F4 damage in Cayce, a mile away looks like strong F2 or low F3. Little further F1, little further F4 where it sucked top soil up out of fields. Etc etc. By the time it got to Mayfield it was going in between low F3 and low F4. Brother lives in Mayfield and had several relatives sustain damage. I come out lucky with only shingles gone from the rear inflow jet.
But in regards to the area in question at Woodland Mills where if it dropped a new tornado?? It was extremely weak if their was one maybe F0-F1 out in open fields or a new tornado dropped. I would like to go out on foot and see for myself but would have to find out the property owners and ask for permission. No one likes a trespasser around here lol. Good way to get shot.
Have to about middle of March before field work starts around here to see if their was any really light scarring on the ground. Where I live I've had 3 tornadoes come within a mile of my house in less than a year
38:18 lol the tornado just tryed to jam the radar hahaha
If your radar were jamed by a radar jammer like from a military aircraft it would kinda look similar you would get many radar contacts from one direction in diffrent ranges what dosent make any sense for the operator and every time the radar scan hits the aircraft again its just keeps getting worse to the point where the whole screen is full with radar contacts
I like to see more of that poker view next time plzzzz :P
🤣
Do you know why the thunderstorm took such a long time to organize and then produce tornadoes in northeast arkansas unlike in central arkansas where storms were forming they never produced any tornadoes. Do you know why that is?
The storms needed some time to mature, and the environment continued to improve going into the early evening hours as the storms made their way into NE AR.
@@ConvectiveChronicles well that makes sense but the second round of thunderstorms developed so quickly and were already mature but didn’t produce a tornado
@@colin7244 The second round of storms featured a storm mode that was somewhat unfavorable for strong/long-track tornadoes.
@@ConvectiveChronicles it was more linear embedded type but then one of the storms along the ling that formed west of I-30 in central arkansas produced that 100+ mile long track tornado in Tenessee
You look at all the tornadoes from that day and there tracks and it’s like there was a bubble over southern Illinois. There were several discreet supercells fire off in southeast Missouri that produced tornados. But once they hit the river it was like they fell apart. You can see the clear path and it’s strange to me. They predicted violent tornadoes for us in that area as well and there was nothing. The storms that did happen were not even severe storms.
I had a theory and told people it was because southern Illinois had actually gotten rain that morning and rained for a good bit and it stabilized the atmosphere and there wasn’t enough time for it to get juicy again for tornados. Am I wrong on that or correct. It would be cool to see a second part of this video talking about why there was basically a bubble over southern Illinois. Late that night a supercell fired off and produced a tornado in the exact same place as the tri state and it made it some distance but then got to the river and fell apart.
That's a good point. It did look quite cool in Southern IL at the surface, but it was also cool farther to the north, where damaging tornadoes occurred. I think perhaps the reason for the gap may have been that that area was just in the middle of the main forcing mechanisms: just too far north for the subtle shortwave/prefrontal trough that initiated the quad-state supercell, and too far south of the central IL activity, which occurred right on the surface low.
@@ConvectiveChronicles thank you for your reply. I wasn’t sure if the rain we received had anything to do with it or not. I don’t remember if central Illinois got the rain or not. But I’m pretty positive the quad state track didn’t receive any rain that morning. I’m a severe storm and tornado junky haha. When it doesn’t get bad I get bored and disappointed. I don’t mean that to sound bad because they are devastating. I just get excited with the bad storms. I’m no weather man though. I know a basics but that’s about it. I got lucky that night to because I was supposed to be staying in rives Missouri at the duck lodge. The tornado actually tracked less than a quarter mile to the north of my duck pit. It actually stole some of our duck decoys lol. It tracked right along the big power line down there. The lodge I stay at is another quarter mile or so to the north of the track. I went down the next morning to see if I had anything left and was in awe going through hayti and down to rives and Hornersville area.
@@ConvectiveChronicles the inflow winds and outflow winds had our decoys scattered everywhere.
@@TennTitans You are right, the quad-state track was not affected by rain that morning, and several breaks in the clouds were apparent by late afternoon. Glad you weren't in the duck lodge when the tornado came through!
Same here! We storm chasers get a lot of flack for getting excited at destructive tornadoes, hurricanes, etc. Of course, we don't want to see destruction; we're in it to see the power/beauty/science behind Mother Nature up close and personal.
Why wasn't this an ef5?
There weren’t any damage indicators to warrant an EF5. Had it hit more populated areas, we may have seen some EF5 indicators.
😢😢😢
Wait I thought it was multiple supercells that caused this. Not 1?
There were multiple tornadic supercells within the entire outbreak, but the long track tornadoes that went through Monette AR and Mayfield KY was from one storm.
@@ConvectiveChronicles ah ok
Samberg was hit. Go look at the damage.
Damage surveys have confirmed that there was a tornado still in progress near Samburg. However, NE of there, it appears that the tornado did lift.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Yes it came over the Clayton area over my house and left me with damage. Hate nighttime storms
Well presented case study. Not sure if you know who Leigh Orf is, but he does high res tornado modeling and has very interesting results as he grows storms that have already happened based on the environmental parameters.
This one is good one - czcams.com/video/8Prk_TT1CsE/video.html
Thanks for watching! I am a huge fan of Leigh Orf's work.
No longer the quad state
Notice the title is "Quad-State Tornadic Supercell" and not "Quad-State Tornado."
2 SEPERATE tornadoes.
Yes, that’s what I said in the video.
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Odin is the Master. All other gods tremble in his presence
A real god wouldn't have a pedophile as his prophet.
What does your outdated religion have to do with tornadoes, anyway?