Thanks for the info! Yes, I have a friend that lives close to Boise. She said , the new home buyers there are out of control. If a person is from CA. as soon as they get there, they go straight to the DMV. They don't like Californians going to their state. They are the reason's why prices of homes are shooting up.
SW Florida, Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Cape Coral, Burnt Store, Ft. Myers, Sarasota, Venice, Bonita, Naples, all way over priced. Specially big builders are pricing locals out. In addition home insurance has nearly doubled as well as those that bought in flood zone AE. It needs a 20% correction. No real high paying jobs in the area and lots of retirees on fix income.
Myth: Retired folks are on a "fixed" income. News Flash!! I work AND collect SS. Haven't had a raise in two years at my job but have been getting a raise each year on my SS. Don't even get me started on how my equities have been doing...Think 30%
Telling people not to buy in Austin right now is a huge mistake. You will effectively price those people out of ever buying a home in this town if they don't buy now or soon. This is New York 1984 the prices are never going down! I've lived here all my life and I can tell you that if you don't buy now you'll never be able to buy. Unless you have really deep pockets? I bought back in 2002. And if I hadn't bought then I never would have been able to afford to buy in Austin. All of my friends who had to move out of the city or out of the state just to be able to afford a home. The amount of over a hundred thousand a year income jobs in this town has more than quadrupled. Unless you want to be stuck paying somebody else's mortgage for the rest of your life you better buy now or very soon? They can build twice as many homes as you're talkin about them building and there still wouldn't be enough room for all the people that are coming here. Elon Musk said this would be the biggest Boomtown in 40 years and he's not kidding! It is. There will never be a better time to buy then now. Even with 200 people bidding on any home that hits the market and on average paying $250,000 above asking price. It's still a better deal than you're going to get a year from now or 10 years from now. There's a whole lot of people in Austin who will never turn loose of their homes. Not for any price. So the market is not going to get better then it is now. I paid 155k for my home in 2002. I have turned down a 1.5 million twice. Those were cash offers. I'm told I can get 1.75 million if I list right now! Why would I do that when it's going to be worth five or six million dollars in just a few years. And won't sell even then! Everyone wants to live here. And that's not an exaggeration. Anyone who waits to buy a home right now will definitely pay more later. Your advice is going to cost people money. And I don't mean just a few dollars. I mean hundreds of thousands of dollars. You can buy a home today and sell it for 250,000 more than you paid for it tomorrow. This is not conjecture this is fact. You ought to come to our town and put your feet on the ground here so you know what you're talkin about? Those chart aren't helping you. And if you think with the higher cost of building and everything that's going on right now? That it is not going to be passed on to the consumer you're crazy? Austin is not a bubble it has been a steady line going up every year consistently year after year for the last 20 years. Even with the 2007/2008 correction my house was worth more money than I paid for it. It maybe went down $100,000 during that time. It promptly went right back up. With the people who will not sell for any price you are going to have limited availability on homes here for a long time to come . That's going to be a fact for at least the next 10 years. I don't see it stabilizing until then. And even then the prices won't go down they'll just stabilize. There's a reason this is the most desirable place in the country to live. Job growth is just one part of it. I have no skin in the game. I am never selling. You can buy my home when my body is cold. I wish they were not coming here? " But this old town died a long time ago, and I am just a ghost haunting a city I don't know." copyright Louis Tash
Hi All, Some factors you didn't mention, that don't matter most of the time, include the rise in the value of the S&P 500, which is up by about 30% since last summer. Part of the value of buying a house is obtaining shelter, and part of it is the speculative value of the underlying land. Over the last year, a large part of the reason houses have gone up in value is the rise in the S&P 500, inflating the speculative value of the house/land. Land values don't have to crash to put a buyer in a bad spot, they only have to plateau and not rise. A second point is the availability of fresh water, and Austin may flood, but it has a better water profile then Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. A third point is the amount of land that could be developed, but has not yet been. Philadelphia has been developed so long that essentially all developable land has already been. Austin can develop in every direction, Houston is a long way south, and Dallas is a long way north, with a lot of empty land between. It may not be obvious, but Denver has essentially reached the point where all available land is in use. You go west and you are in serious mountains, and the high plains start not too far east of Denver. Denver is pleasant because of the protection of the mountains, once you are beyond that protection there is no reason to live there. Boise is kind of weird, in a real estate sense. Southern Idaho is a big place, but the valley of the volcanos is only about 20 to 30 miles wide from north to south, with rugged mountains on both sides. Any large pieces of land are probably zoned agricultural, and building new subdivisions could start to get difficult. The land that could be developed but hasn't yet is shrinking in Boise, so, prices may plateau, but I don't see a big drop, as supply is drying up. One place you didn't mention, but that showed up in one of your maps, was Minot, North Dakota. It was in bright red, because over the last 5 years a lot of people have left. They left because the wholesale price of oil has dropped, limiting drilling in the Baaken Oil Patch. That means housing is available, and not terribly expensive, since demand is so low. Minot is an hour flight to Denver, all internet type goodies are available. Just gets a little cold in the winter. The mutual fund XOP has increased by about 40% over the past year, leading to part of the price rise in Austin, but not doing much for Minot. Thanks for your time, take care.
I grew up in one of these places (Boise) and now live in another (LA). I'm waiting on buying a house. But just because LA is bad now, doesn't always mean it's going to be better anytime soon.
What you say is what I want to say! Austin is not only 4.6% increasing, it's increasing at least 50% so far. Some area is even over 70% to 200%., and also you have not way to buy unless you pay more. The new construction house must draw lots to get the house. I finally give up to buy!
Panhandle has been hot last 5 years and will continue to be HOT. This market is almost immune but even if the market slows most of these properties are going to maintain value.
The Austin prices grew another 20%, New York +12%, New Orleans +5%, Los Angeles +5%, Boise +30%. I would understand you missed some, but your methodology is wrong.
@@danstvguy no crystal ball. Just pure economic science. Remember Hank Paulson testimony to the congress or Alan Greenspan famous quote. It's much worse now. Thanks for the feedback.
Don't worry, this guy never has anything good to say about the housing market. He's a perma bear. Just buy a home when you're ready and you can afford it. Don't look at it as an investment, but a lifestyle choice. If you don't like what I'm saying just rent. You'll actually have more money in your pocket by retirement.
I can never be a New Yorker. It's the first place I ever visited where before I got out of the airline terminal, my spider sense said "GTFO!!!". New Yorkers are definitely tough people to live that lifestyle.
Hey what's 20to 30 inconviences ,struggles and attitude events every when you can not be part of all the insider perks and wealth streams in such a famous megatown. Paid my last shakedown toll in 86 and have lived in excellent homes in excellent towns ever since
People who are relocating to Austin; or are contemplating on relocating to Austin should know that Austin does receive plenty of rain that causes the rivers to crest; and in the streets where the land is low enough for the rain water to flood the streets! They better purchase flood insurance for their houses!
Great data filled videos and very informative. Would love to be able to view some of these data points with the full graphs and spreadsheet analysis. Is that possible? Thanks for your hard work and great content!
Thanks for the comment Manesh! I provide 1-on-1 coaching for those want to learn more about investments markets/neighborhoods on a data-driven level. Visit reventureconsulting.com for details!
Beware of home not built to code and in non residential zones by Willapa River Development LLC owner Walter Lee Mitchell Jr in Raymond, Washington and Southern California.
Portland homelessness is crazy. Vacant buildings everywhere throughout the city. Businesses are leaving. Trash piling up. Graffiti on every empty wall or building. Not a good sign.
Illinois is a tough one because as a state, we’re losing population but Chicago gained population. I can assure you, no one I know left Chicago recently nor has plans to.
NOTHING here about UTAH. We are told there are 60,000 people who want to buy in this state, and 2k homes in the inventory! We are told it's the hottest, strongest economy in the nation! Looking at closing on a home in Springville, UT next week for $500k. A nice 4 bdrm, 3.5 bath in wonderful area. I know it's up $200k from 5 years ago. Oh well. Perfect location / proximity to my sisters / kids.
Great video as always! Could you create videos on markets with a little growth, nothing crazy, but low supply that would make it a good place to invest in. I like your video about Columbus, but Im sure there are similar markets. Keep it up
Austin has less than 1 month of supply, and I heard at some point last week that within city proper if you exclude condo units, there was an 8 day supply (something like 350 houses for a city of more than 1 million people). Houses going for 30% over asking is common, and my own property, which I bought in summer of 2019, is up 50% since I bought it. I assure you, Austin is not a bad market. The reason permits are so high is due to builders needing to build due to excessive demand and such short existing supply.
Thanks for the comment Chris! You're right that Austin's "active inventory" is very low. However, that's not something unique to Austin - almost every large, growing city (Denver, Portland, Columbus) has extremely low inventory right now. The real question for home buyers and real estate investors is what inventory will look like in 12-18 months.
@@ReventureConsulting From what every agent and lender in the Austin area says the current supply scenario is extremely unique and it at all common. Taking into consideration the amount of migration to the Austin area for the new opportunities in tech much of the inventory slotted to build out through 2021 is already sold. Are they off base?
@@mosoandso Thanks for the comment! Below are some markets with similar current supply issues to Austin: Columbus, Portland, Salt Lake, and Raleigh. All have median DOM of 6-7. The situation occurring in Austin right now is not unique. It is very typical across the country thanks to low interest rates and hesitancy to list. The difference between Austin and the other markets I mentioned is that Austin is permitting 2-3x more new housing units. It will be interesting to see if the city an absorb them.
@@ReventureConsulting Completely understood though I’m advised by lenders and agents alike that the current environment is highly uncommon for Austin specifically. Just want to make sure I’m getting the right info/angle on the market
@@mosoandso These are crazy, unprecedented times (low interest rates / hesitant sellers due to covid). My usual advice to people is: if you find a place that you love that fits in your budget, pull the trigger. But don’t feel pressured to buy in this feeding frenzy. Things will likely soften in a year or two.
I was expecting to see Reno, NV, which is a housing market on par with Boise for rising prices and low availability. Current median single-family house price is 515k, and median income is 46.5k.
Can you talk about central Oregon? It’s a nightmare. When we first moved here, apartments were expensive but you could make it work. Now homes are selling for $100,000 more than they are worth and apartments have waiting lists 60 people deep. Landlords are realizing how much they can sell their buildings for and are kicking out tenants. Tenants are becoming homeless or are moving away because there is literally nowhere to live. Businesses are losing employees and can’t replace them at the rate they are losing them. I would love to hear your take.
In Austin even with the new supply coming in demand still seems to outstrip supply. People are moving to Austin at a record pace, especially tech workers who can work remotely escaping the expensive west coast. Inventory is at less than one month..even with new supply that shouldn't ease up too much in the near future. Could you do a video with deep dive into the Austin market?
That's a great point Aditya - Austin is growing extremely fast. I do think the residential housing market in Austin is stronger than the multifamily market, the latter of which has been struggling for a couple of years already. Check out this video on Austin I did from a couple months back: czcams.com/video/1RKfA81BSIs/video.html
Great analysis on LA, you were WAY more accurate in THIS video than in your LA focused video. I think you do a great job analyzing the raw numbers but I think that the numbers available to the greater public are deliberately inaccurate. Shadow Stats anyone. Based on what YOU pointed out, I would say Austin is the best place to buy in the entire country right now. You make the case that there is too much supply...hmm, OK, but the job growth is amazing in Austin and over the LONG HAUL (RE is a long game) I bet you will see that Austin was the best play. RE developers are not dumb, they know where to put their money. An intelligent RE investor goes for cash flows not appreciation, which historically track inflation with no real increase in BUYING POWER. So, I would rather buy on the cheap, and maybe keep buying as I get to know the area better BEFORE the market overheats. Thank you for sharing your points, you've convinced me to look into Austin. I know this is contrary to what you recommended. Money from RE is made from cash flows and Austin looks great. I appreciate the hard work you put into your videos, what you do is not easy. I appreciate that you are not pushing an agenda, viewers of RE videos are intelligent and can pick up on your integrity.
A lot of this is subject to change they are high priced but if you have large corporations leaving New York and LA going to New Orleans or possibly Austin you could be missing out
Thoughts on LA: I currently invest here. Some of your points are good for a discussion, but I wouldn't qualify them as causation. For example, household incomes include apartment buildings. This skews the data greatly in high density areas (for example Culver City) where multi million dollar homes can be on the same street or neighborhood as apartment buildings. Second, there is a big supply issue especially with new homes. Third, there was the highest level of equity ever in California from 2008 to 2020. This equity is being put forward as large down payments on new purchases. This also extends from the parents of possible new home owners sending gift funds, which I have seen a lot of. The job creation comment I can't speak to, but a lot of people are working from home now. We also are experiencing the biggest demographic shift since WWII, as millennials are in home formation mode and are ready to buy townhouses, condo's and houses. If the concern is where buyers are getting money from, I can attest this is not an issue. If the other concern is prices going down, there is no data to support that. There is very little inventory, even less space to live, and the zoning codes are emphasizing townhouse style construction / small condo's.
The last time equity was this high and inventory this low? 2005-06! All equity/inventory does is describe the past/present situation of the housing market. Says nothing about the future. Look to jobs, migration, and price/wage ratios for future.
@@ReventureConsulting I’m not saying the data you’re presenting isn’t important. But there are other pieces of data that hold important weight as well. Comparing anything to 2005 2006 seems improper. Regulations are different. For example, Credit scores for home loans are very high. I believe the highest in 20 years which is the inverse of what happened in 2005-2008. I and many others invest in Los Angeles county, orange county. We do very well financially. Most of the profit is made in the purchase. If you’re asking me what the market we will have in 10 years - I think I would lean more towards your data. But my exit is five years or less - every bit of data that I can find points to a solid market with good drivers behind it.
@@Mercedes1995I forgot all about this video. LA has been, and is doing well for the reasons I stated before. Inventory is key, maybe the most important factor when combined with home equity position. Main factors will always be 1. Can someone stay in their home if they lose their job for a while (2 years?) so good equity levels allow that to happen. Which means many less foreclosures and quick sales. 2. How many houses are available compared to how many people are looking. This can get more detailed into demographics, location, price of home, new building permits - but each of those require additional inputs. Anyway, rates should level off now and I'd expect to see 30 year fixed near 5% within 12 months based on current lenders comments. That will be enough to drive another boom to housing into the next (coincidental?) Presidential election.
I know people buying distressed properties in New Orleans, completely rebuilding and renting out four plex's all hanu. These guys are making almost 30% cap out there, so I guess its all how you do it. Im seeing money being made out there weekly.
Very interesting analysis, seems to be spot on. We've been tracking the price of "horse properties" in the Treasure Valley of Idaho (includes Boise) for a year. The prices have been through the roof, with many homes on 2-10 acres going for 200-300% more (that is correct--200-300 percent) than they sold for in 2018, as cash deals above asking price, with 2-3 days on the market, without inspections. Many in the Treasure Valley said "That's just the way it is and you better buy quick or you will pay more tomorrow". We have seen a significant cooling in the past 1-2 months, with properties stagnating on the market, with many less pending sales and recently Idaho brokers calling us, telling us to offer $50K-$90K BELOW the asked for $900,000+ for horse properties we were looking at. There may be a very painful correction in Idaho's Treasure Valley / Boise housing market before the summer of 2022.
I've been hearing this about L.A since the 80s and property here has gone up 1000%. The weather alone makes the world want to live here. Nothing going down here. Maybe it'll stabalize.
Don't compare the mortgage crisis to now. We all want houses to be 300k in LA. Never happening. Prices on my block went from 800k 3 years ago to 1.4 now
Yep, people just go to where the jobs are. Why would I buy a house in the middle of nowhere without the possibility of finding a job. It's just plain common sense.
I think the part you are missing is that Austin has nowhere near the amount of housing units as Phoenix. Austin is a very small city. So of course there will be a much higher percentage of housing permits than its existing supply in contrast to much larger cities like the Philly and Pheonix metros. You are not comparing apples to apples. You are comparing 2nd and 3rd tier cities in size and scale to 1st tier cities.
The cities below are all roughly the same size. Permits over the last year for each. Austin - 45k Nashville - 28k Las Vegas - 15k Columbus - 12k San Jose - 6k
Don’t agree with your analysis of Austin in terms of new housing permits. You always have to see how the demand is? How many people are flocking to Austin’s? When you see the demand and supply both you will see the whole picture. I am sure number of people migrating into Austin is far more than the other cities you compared it to. Austin’s hype is real. There is a reason why people are moving there - I believe the judgment of common person.
Thanks for informative videos. I can work anywhere remotely (don't need job locally). So, wondering which cities are best to relocate to research future real estate investments ? I am thinking Vegas, LA, Denver, Austin, Tampa,FL
Thanks for the comment Sunny! That’s a great position to be in. I moved to Austin recently and love it. It’s quality of life is high and it’s much more affordable than LA and even Denver.
@@ReventureConsultingy Oh everyone is moving to Austin. I might too in a month or so. What do you think of real estate market in San Antonio ? (just an hour south I think).
This is a great channel! Concise, clear information. One of the things I've noticed about all channels however is that they are inaccurate with their information about Boise. This has led me to do a localized Google search for any place I am looking to buy investment property. When this was made 5 months ago he said the median home price for Boise was $375,000. In January of this year the median home price for a home in Boise was $489,000. As of June of 2021 the median home price was $523,000. I think looking at historical information and national information works pretty well, but when there is a real hot spot like Boise it makes more sense to Google median home sales prices for the previous month and check out local institutions like newspapers for that town for the most accurate information. Boise is unsustainable, much like he said. The value to income ratio was bad if he'd been accurate with the median home sales price of 375. But with an average home price of over half a million dollars leads me to believe that the town I call home is a bubble waiting to pop.
Thanks for the comment Thomas! The data I quoted wasn't median sales price - it was the typical home value in the market according to Zillow. Note that most markets are seeing median sales prices higher than the typical value since most of the transactions over the last 12 months have been on higher-end homes.
@@ReventureConsulting that makes sense as far as value goes as opposed to median sales price. I'm not sure what the accurate value of these houses is now though. Of the 1100 or so homes currently listed for sale in Boise proper there's probably ten or so that are listed at about 375 or below. A typical three bedroom two bath home that needs updating in my neighborhood lists for about 475,000. The one bedroom one bath (540 sq ft) next door to me sold for $430,000 a couple weeks ago. Not a high-end home by any standards. Just a normal neighborhood, close to parks, downtown and the college. Hi and homes now list for $750,000 or above. The homes that were considered very high-end three years ago that were a million dollars. Easily list from 1.75 to 2.2 million now. It is wholly unsustainable what has happened. With median salaries being about $25 an hour. There was a point this winter where we were seeing 20% appreciation month over month in sales prices. Median home sales prices went from 380,000 to 523,000 in the course of about 14 months. As an investor none of it pencils out anymore.
@@xsw882 , a mortgage is better if your monthly rental is much higher. At least you can get something back if you sell the house compared to just throwing money away with rent.
@@coconutmix yea get "something" back but u still owe, it could very well be the case that u sell ur home and still owe money on ur mortgage, its easy to lose more than 100% of ur investment when ur levered up, real estate is the one market where participants cannot grasp this
@@xsw882 , property or housing value always goes up. Even if you owe something, you get the equity back. Some people buy properties at a cheaper price and sell them twice the value later on. Some also would rent them out that's why a lot of people get rich with a real estate business. It's one of.the best investment as long as you do it wisely.
Sorry bud, it’s not going to, it may drop 30-50k but new homes are sold out and rent is sky high.when you see 150k price growth 30k isn’t that big a deal.
Some of the political decisions made post Hurricane Katrina contributed to its lack of recovery. There is interesting information about this in the book The Shock Doctrine, by Naomi Klein.
Apartment building permits don’t give the full picture of the supply and demand in Austin. So many new car and technology companies have moved to Austin increasing demand for housing for their employees. Austin has a lot of protected greenbelt so available lots are few and far between. Local realtors tell a diff story of very few houses on the market compared to previous years with a much greater supply due to migration from coasts and new companies. Not sure this high demand low supply will be over-corrected by these apartment permits in order to crash the housing market there.
Thanks for the comment! We'll have to see. One thing to note is that NYC did not have much competition for business and industry back in the 1930s & 70s, so it was easier to bounce back. These days Alliance Bernstein is going to Nashville and Goldman AM is going to Miami. Plus remote work is real.
I live in one of the worst places to buy a house, good old ky. They will not build any new homes it seems unless someone goes to the builders and gets it done themself. houses went from like 120k for brand new house to over 500k for a new home in like 15 years. seen a house sell for 200k that was rotten inside and destroyed. lol I get a loan for house and its maxed at 200k for 1350 a month. Who cant afford that shit and even if we could the only house we could afford is a shit hole.. Rent went from 600 to 1300 for like a 1 or 2 bedroom. im in the hood with drive byes and have to pay 900 a month. lol shit is crazy.
This guy doesn't know what the hell he is talking about. Lived in Austin, TX for the last 10 years, and my property value has tripled. There are jobs everywhere here. Extensive growth in the tech industry, no property tax and a great place to live are factors have that have brought so many here. Texas is also a very financially healthy state that grants corporations a great deal of tax incentives. We don't have the corruption or other financial problems of other states such as California because we are fiscally responsible. Yes, the growth has affected affordability here. But this guy is telling you not to buy property here because there is already "so much under construction" is an incredulous argument. He doesn't understand that the high demand for jobs fuels the housing market. Corporations continue to flock to Austin because the incentives completely outweigh the negatives, and Austin is constructing a 7.1B rail system that will resolve the traffic issue. Unfortunately, people like the creator of this video will say just about anything in order to make a buck or two on youtube. But this argument he presents is pure fiction. There is absolutely no credibility to what this guy is saying. He quotes Zillow as a data source, that's his first mistake. Anybody with any sort of inherent knowledge regarding the Austin real estate market knows that Zillow is a complete joke
Thanks for your comment John! I agree with your points regarding Austin's tremendous economy and growth. I actually made a video on this topic that you can check out here: czcams.com/video/0_8yTopB1KY/video.html However, real estate isn't just about demand. Supply is just as important, and Austin is in the midst of a housing glut currently. Apartment owners in the city are going through a very tough time with decreasing rents and increasing concessions. Expect these struggles to spill over to the Single-Family market by the end of 2021.
What do you actually know for fact about Austin, because your argument is way off. The reasons you give for buying property in Austin are not credible. Do you actually live and invest here, or are you just projecting your unqualified opinion?
@@MigrantFromVenezuela My arguments against Austin are rooted in hard data from the US Census Bureau, which tracks economic growth, household formation, and new permitting across the country. These variables are the fundamental drivers of real estate appreciation. And yes, I do live in Austin.
That data does not say or suggest "don't buy property in Austin." You are extracting various pieces of information and drawing those conclusions. There is a difference
I was wondering what you thought about the Bryan/College Station area for buying a home in 2021. I ask because it has a big State University system core. Its only about 80 miles to the East yet has a lot of attributes of Austin. Many designs have been discussed for high speed electric railway, in addition to its current freight railway system, it also serves as a nexus of several major highway systems in the state. Its also on the closest side of Austin to the Tesla factory. Outside the Hurricane, Tornado and most bad climate weather regions and has a fair regional airport. I sound like an advertisement.. but I live here and was thinking about buying.
Thanks for the comment John! You bring up a lot of compelling points about Bryan/College Station. Why don't you fill out a contact form on the Reventure Website and we can discuss the real estate dynamics of this area in more detail. reventureconsulting.com/contacts/
Austin's home supply is at all time lows. They also have Tesla, Oracle, and others moving into the city. Inventory is maybe 60 days right now and not getting better.
Mark Jones That’s a good point Mark! There is a difference between Austin’s home and apartment market currently. One thing to note is that Austin approved a record amount of single family home construction in 2020. We’ll see that hit the market later this year.
Tom Petty I am not a fan of the Austin apartment market. Rents are already down year over year just as a record amount of new apartment inventory was permitted for development. On top of all that yields are low. It will take a long time for the apartment to produce any type of real cash flow.
@@ReventureConsulting I understand. What kind of apt appreciation rates are seen in Austin? Seems like investors are buying up all inventory and banking on appreciation. People made a killing this year by just holding
@@SilverbugInc If you have a long-term outlook, and are okay with little to no cash flow in the short to intermediate term, then buying for appreciation might make sense. The problem comes in with how many units Austin is permitting. It is difficult to achieve strong long-run appreciation in a market where the housing supply is expanding by 4-5% per year.
Wouldn't that mean that markets like Austin and Nashville will also see the biggest crash in the near future? If they have too many rentals/houses available? So currently you might want to avoid those markets because of the potential loss, but keep an eye on them for good deals.
NJ is an interesting market - low long-term growth, but also very little new supply being built. I would be slightly nervous about this recent demand being temporary, as any type of NYC bounce back would likely hurt NJ real estate.
@@ReventureConsulting IMO opinion, we are in a renter's market and there is no place better to rent as a poor person as NJ, it has the most well connected public transportation in the world and its economy isn't facing as many challenges as others, plus legalized weed and online gambling and other industries forming. I don't think theres many other places you can live as a poor person with a used car or take the bus and live within walking distance of food and your job
I looked into Cap Coral. Not a bad place at all. There's not much of inventory available. Of course it depends on where you want to live in Cape Coral? Remember Florida as one of the state's that is getting a lot of newbies.
I bought a triple decker house in Somerville just adjacent to Boston, in 1999 for $220k. The seller was divorcing and let it go for a song, which he later regretted. Sold it in 2003 for around 270k. I was pleased with that because i had steady income renting out 2 floors and living on one myself. I recently saw that house on Zillow, or one of the sites. The price to sell was listed at $900k. That's just insane.
In your Boise video will you compare other parts of the state? We are building a home (should finish in December) in Idaho falls on the other side of the state, and the market here is nuts. I am very nervous to close on it and more than double the mortgage from our starter home.
Atlanta/its suburbs as well. My agent friend told me a $2M listing had $4M offers. Cash. NE/NY buyers sold this spring and are buying cash @ 50-100% of asking price increase regardless of price point.
Thanks for the comment! That's right - NY is not very economically friendly right now. If you want to learn more about the issues the city is facing, watch this video that I just put out: czcams.com/video/pJbBuX_sG8Y/video.html
I don't know if you did this but It would be nice that you do a video comparing and contrasting markets i.e. Phoenix vs. Chicago. Speaking of Chicago, what are your thoughts about that market?
Brian Geiger Thanks for the comment! That’s a great suggestion with comparing and contrasting markets. Chicago is a low growth market that is in a bit of secular decline (declining population and jobs). However, it is a safe market to invest since there’s minimal new supply.
Is it possible that with all those rich California cash buyers coming to Boise keeping the market up and it's great covid/ job recovery rate that the prices don't pop?
It's possible. Likely? Probably not. If prices in California were to go down, or anything bad were to happen in tech, it would create big problems for Boise.
That's a tough one to peg. If you check out my Miami video you'll see that concerns about sea level rise could already be impacting certain neighborhoods there. But there might be ways they can get around it. For instance, in Boston they are making buildings in the seaport now where the 2nd floor can become the new ground floor if the original ground floor is flooded.
@@ReventureConsulting i got my modestly small house here in boise in nov 2017. If i didnt have a good job i might think about selling and getting 50 percent of a down payment for a house in OKC. What do you think about Oklahoma city area? Cheap new construction houses there.
As soon as California stops collapsing then prices will fall hard. But CA keeps doubling down on terrible policies and high taxes and everyone of any means is getting out.
Great question! Strong economic growth combined with minimal building from 2015-20 really out LAs hope prices into high gear. It will be interesting to see what happens now that LA is in a full scale recession and many people have left the city.
My bet is on your channel blowing up quick! I said it first. Valuable content, easy to understand, good thumbnails, and consistent posting.
Appreciate the kind words Joe!
😁👍👌
Anyone who listened to this really got screwed. Prices just continued to CLIMB LOL
Thanks for the info! Yes, I have a friend that lives close to Boise. She said , the new home buyers there are out of
control. If a person is from CA. as soon as they get there, they go straight to the DMV. They don't like
Californians going to their state. They are the reason's why prices of homes are shooting up.
Do you think Boise residents will start moving to Idaho Falls once the Californians take over?
Markets to avoid: The ones you don't want to live in.
SW Florida, Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Cape Coral, Burnt Store, Ft. Myers, Sarasota, Venice, Bonita, Naples, all way over priced. Specially big builders are pricing locals out. In addition home insurance has nearly doubled as well as those that bought in flood zone AE. It needs a 20% correction. No real high paying jobs in the area and lots of retirees on fix income.
Myth: Retired folks are on a "fixed" income. News Flash!! I work AND collect SS. Haven't had a raise in two years at my job but have been getting a raise each year on my SS. Don't even get me started on how my equities have been doing...Think 30%
Telling people not to buy in Austin right now is a huge mistake. You will effectively price those people out of ever buying a home in this town if they don't buy now or soon. This is New York 1984 the prices are never going down! I've lived here all my life and I can tell you that if you don't buy now you'll never be able to buy. Unless you have really deep pockets? I bought back in 2002. And if I hadn't bought then I never would have been able to afford to buy in Austin. All of my friends who had to move out of the city or out of the state just to be able to afford a home. The amount of over a hundred thousand a year income jobs in this town has more than quadrupled. Unless you want to be stuck paying somebody else's mortgage for the rest of your life you better buy now or very soon? They can build twice as many homes as you're talkin about them building and there still wouldn't be enough room for all the people that are coming here. Elon Musk said this would be the biggest Boomtown in 40 years and he's not kidding! It is. There will never be a better time to buy then now. Even with 200 people bidding on any home that hits the market and on average paying $250,000 above asking price. It's still a better deal than you're going to get a year from now or 10 years from now. There's a whole lot of people in Austin who will never turn loose of their homes. Not for any price. So the market is not going to get better then it is now. I paid 155k for my home in 2002. I have turned down a 1.5 million twice. Those were cash offers. I'm told I can get 1.75 million if I list right now! Why would I do that when it's going to be worth five or six million dollars in just a few years. And won't sell even then! Everyone wants to live here. And that's not an exaggeration. Anyone who waits to buy a home right now will definitely pay more later. Your advice is going to cost people money. And I don't mean just a few dollars. I mean hundreds of thousands of dollars. You can buy a home today and sell it for 250,000 more than you paid for it tomorrow. This is not conjecture this is fact. You ought to come to our town and put your feet on the ground here so you know what you're talkin about? Those chart aren't helping you. And if you think with the higher cost of building and everything that's going on right now? That it is not going to be passed on to the consumer you're crazy? Austin is not a bubble it has been a steady line going up every year consistently year after year for the last 20 years. Even with the 2007/2008 correction my house was worth more money than I paid for it. It maybe went down $100,000 during that time. It promptly went right back up. With the people who will not sell for any price you are going to have limited availability on homes here for a long time to come . That's going to be a fact for at least the next 10 years. I don't see it stabilizing until then. And even then the prices won't go down they'll just stabilize. There's a reason this is the most desirable place in the country to live. Job growth is just one part of it.
I have no skin in the game. I am never selling. You can buy my home when my body is cold. I wish they were not coming here? " But this old town died a long time ago, and I am just a ghost haunting a city I don't know." copyright Louis Tash
Hi All, Some factors you didn't mention, that don't matter most of the time, include the rise in the value of the S&P 500, which is up by about 30% since last summer.
Part of the value of buying a house is obtaining shelter, and part of it is the speculative value of the underlying land.
Over the last year, a large part of the reason houses have gone up in value is the rise in the S&P 500, inflating the speculative value of the house/land.
Land values don't have to crash to put a buyer in a bad spot, they only have to plateau and not rise.
A second point is the availability of fresh water, and Austin may flood, but it has a better water profile then Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles.
A third point is the amount of land that could be developed, but has not yet been. Philadelphia has been developed so long that essentially all developable land has already been.
Austin can develop in every direction, Houston is a long way south, and Dallas is a long way north, with a lot of empty land between.
It may not be obvious, but Denver has essentially reached the point where all available land is in use. You go west and you are in serious mountains, and the high plains start not too far east of Denver.
Denver is pleasant because of the protection of the mountains, once you are beyond that protection there is no reason to live there.
Boise is kind of weird, in a real estate sense. Southern Idaho is a big place, but the valley of the volcanos is only about 20 to 30 miles wide from north to south, with rugged mountains on both sides.
Any large pieces of land are probably zoned agricultural, and building new subdivisions could start to get difficult.
The land that could be developed but hasn't yet is shrinking in Boise, so, prices may plateau, but I don't see a big drop, as supply is drying up.
One place you didn't mention, but that showed up in one of your maps, was Minot, North Dakota. It was in bright red, because over the last 5 years a lot of people have left.
They left because the wholesale price of oil has dropped, limiting drilling in the Baaken Oil Patch.
That means housing is available, and not terribly expensive, since demand is so low.
Minot is an hour flight to Denver, all internet type goodies are available. Just gets a little cold in the winter.
The mutual fund XOP has increased by about 40% over the past year, leading to part of the price rise in Austin, but not doing much for Minot.
Thanks for your time, take care.
I grew up in one of these places (Boise) and now live in another (LA). I'm waiting on buying a house. But just because LA is bad now, doesn't always mean it's going to be better anytime soon.
What you say is what I want to say! Austin is not only 4.6% increasing, it's increasing at least 50% so far. Some area is even over 70% to 200%., and also you have not way to buy unless you pay more. The new construction house must draw lots to get the house. I finally give up to buy!
DFW isn't much better
It would be great a to hear your information on the Florida panhandle. The cost of rent has increased significantly.
Panhandle has been hot last 5 years and will continue to be HOT. This market is almost immune but even if the market slows most of these properties are going to maintain value.
Also the Florida Panhandle. Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Ft Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, all of 30A and Panama City Beach
The Austin prices grew another 20%, New York +12%, New Orleans +5%, Los Angeles +5%, Boise +30%. I would understand you missed some, but your methodology is wrong.
Yes LA area and suburbs are very expensive right now
I’m in Dallas, Tx, I want ro purchase Plano, Allen, or McKinney, Tx. So I tried a few in Mansfield, Tx.and got the one there.
You sir have a new subscriber. Thank you for the great content!
Thank you for the kind words Karina!
Fuck I’m finally ready to buy my house this year and now this guy comes out with scary videos telling me no
Hold off if you can until 2022.
@@danstvguy no crystal ball. Just pure economic science. Remember Hank Paulson testimony to the congress or Alan Greenspan famous quote. It's much worse now. Thanks for the feedback.
You got a filthy mouth!!!!
Buy outside the USA, problem solved
Don't worry, this guy never has anything good to say about the housing market. He's a perma bear. Just buy a home when you're ready and you can afford it. Don't look at it as an investment, but a lifestyle choice. If you don't like what I'm saying just rent. You'll actually have more money in your pocket by retirement.
I can never be a New Yorker. It's the first place I ever visited where before I got out of the airline terminal, my spider sense said "GTFO!!!". New Yorkers are definitely tough people to live that lifestyle.
Hey what's 20to 30 inconviences ,struggles and attitude events every when you can not be part of all the insider perks and wealth streams in such a famous megatown. Paid my last shakedown toll in 86 and have lived in excellent homes in excellent towns ever since
People who are relocating to Austin; or are contemplating on relocating to Austin should know that Austin does receive plenty of rain that causes the rivers to crest; and in the streets where the land is low enough for the rain water to flood the streets!
They better purchase flood insurance for their houses!
So much rain here over the last month.
Well ... there's my Boise video from you. Thanks so vey much! Just love your videos!
Thanks! I will be doing a video solely focused on Boise in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.
Great data filled videos and very informative. Would love to be able to view some of these data points with the full graphs and spreadsheet analysis. Is that possible? Thanks for your hard work and great content!
Thanks for the comment Manesh! I provide 1-on-1 coaching for those want to learn more about investments markets/neighborhoods on a data-driven level. Visit reventureconsulting.com for details!
Beware of home not built to code and in non residential zones by Willapa River Development LLC owner Walter Lee Mitchell Jr in Raymond, Washington and Southern California.
avoid California, new york , Illinois, Oregon, ...
And Denver
Yup - those states, with the exception of Oregon, all have big negative trends in migration and job growth.
Portland homelessness is crazy. Vacant buildings everywhere throughout the city. Businesses are leaving. Trash piling up. Graffiti on every empty wall or building. Not a good sign.
Illinois is a tough one because as a state, we’re losing population but Chicago gained population. I can assure you, no one I know left Chicago recently nor has plans to.
NOTHING here about UTAH. We are told there are 60,000 people who want to buy in this state, and 2k homes in the inventory! We are told it's the hottest, strongest economy in the nation! Looking at closing on a home in Springville, UT next week for $500k. A nice 4 bdrm, 3.5 bath in wonderful area. I know it's up $200k from 5 years ago. Oh well. Perfect location / proximity to my sisters / kids.
Great video as always! Could you create videos on markets with a little growth, nothing crazy, but low supply that would make it a good place to invest in. I like your video about Columbus, but Im sure there are similar markets.
Keep it up
Thanks Lateef! I'm planning a "Five Underrated Growth Markets" video for the next couple weeks. Be on the lookout for that!
Austin has less than 1 month of supply, and I heard at some point last week that within city proper if you exclude condo units, there was an 8 day supply (something like 350 houses for a city of more than 1 million people). Houses going for 30% over asking is common, and my own property, which I bought in summer of 2019, is up 50% since I bought it. I assure you, Austin is not a bad market. The reason permits are so high is due to builders needing to build due to excessive demand and such short existing supply.
Thanks for the comment Chris!
You're right that Austin's "active inventory" is very low. However, that's not something unique to Austin - almost every large, growing city (Denver, Portland, Columbus) has extremely low inventory right now.
The real question for home buyers and real estate investors is what inventory will look like in 12-18 months.
@@ReventureConsulting From what every agent and lender in the Austin area says the current supply scenario is extremely unique and it at all common. Taking into consideration the amount of migration to the Austin area for the new opportunities in tech much of the inventory slotted to build out through 2021 is already sold. Are they off base?
@@mosoandso Thanks for the comment!
Below are some markets with similar current supply issues to Austin: Columbus, Portland, Salt Lake, and Raleigh. All have median DOM of 6-7.
The situation occurring in Austin right now is not unique. It is very typical across the country thanks to low interest rates and hesitancy to list.
The difference between Austin and the other markets I mentioned is that Austin is permitting 2-3x more new housing units. It will be interesting to see if the city an absorb them.
@@ReventureConsulting Completely understood though I’m advised by lenders and agents alike that the current environment is highly uncommon for Austin specifically. Just want to make sure I’m getting the right info/angle on the market
@@mosoandso These are crazy, unprecedented times (low interest rates / hesitant sellers due to covid).
My usual advice to people is: if you find a place that you love that fits in your budget, pull the trigger. But don’t feel pressured to buy in this feeding frenzy. Things will likely soften in a year or two.
I was expecting to see Reno, NV, which is a housing market on par with Boise for rising prices and low availability. Current median single-family house price is 515k, and median income is 46.5k.
Thanks for the comment Matthew! Torn on Reno - looks much better now than it did in 2007, but it definitely has some frothy elements.
Been to Reno recently. The red light is flashing
I see you already mentioned Reno as did I on my separate comment. Reno is insane. Talk about red flag, although is it another Boise, ID?
Can you talk about central Oregon? It’s a nightmare. When we first moved here, apartments were expensive but you could make it work. Now homes are selling for $100,000 more than they are worth and apartments have waiting lists 60 people deep. Landlords are realizing how much they can sell their buildings for and are kicking out tenants. Tenants are becoming homeless or are moving away because there is literally nowhere to live. Businesses are losing employees and can’t replace them at the rate they are losing them. I would love to hear your take.
I'm convinced the civil war will start in Oregon
Kevin Lopez 😂😂 it’s possible
In Austin even with the new supply coming in demand still seems to outstrip supply. People are moving to Austin at a record pace, especially tech workers who can work remotely escaping the expensive west coast. Inventory is at less than one month..even with new supply that shouldn't ease up too much in the near future. Could you do a video with deep dive into the Austin market?
That's a great point Aditya - Austin is growing extremely fast. I do think the residential housing market in Austin is stronger than the multifamily market, the latter of which has been struggling for a couple of years already.
Check out this video on Austin I did from a couple months back: czcams.com/video/1RKfA81BSIs/video.html
@@ReventureConsulting thanks!
Great analysis on LA, you were WAY more accurate in THIS video than in your LA focused video. I think you do a great job analyzing the raw numbers but I think that the numbers available to the greater public are deliberately inaccurate. Shadow Stats anyone.
Based on what YOU pointed out, I would say Austin is the best place to buy in the entire country right now. You make the case that there is too much supply...hmm, OK, but the job growth is amazing in Austin and over the LONG HAUL (RE is a long game) I bet you will see that Austin was the best play. RE developers are not dumb, they know where to put their money. An intelligent RE investor goes for cash flows not appreciation, which historically track inflation with no real increase in BUYING POWER. So, I would rather buy on the cheap, and maybe keep buying as I get to know the area better BEFORE the market overheats. Thank you for sharing your points, you've convinced me to look into Austin. I know this is contrary to what you recommended. Money from RE is made from cash flows and Austin looks great.
I appreciate the hard work you put into your videos, what you do is not easy. I appreciate that you are not pushing an agenda, viewers of RE videos are intelligent and can pick up on your integrity.
If you want cash flows then Austin is definitely not the market for you. Check out my Best v. Worst cities video.
@@ReventureConsulting That was a great video, I think I thanked you for making it.
Nick called it so long ago
Austin and Boise have large inventory and discounts
A lot of this is subject to change they are high priced but if you have large corporations leaving New York and LA going to New Orleans or possibly Austin you could be missing out
The information is really useful, thank you very much!
I'm glad you enjoyed it! Please subscribe and tell your friends!
Thoughts on LA: I currently invest here. Some of your points are good for a discussion, but I wouldn't qualify them as causation. For example, household incomes include apartment buildings. This skews the data greatly in high density areas (for example Culver City) where multi million dollar homes can be on the same street or neighborhood as apartment buildings. Second, there is a big supply issue especially with new homes. Third, there was the highest level of equity ever in California from 2008 to 2020. This equity is being put forward as large down payments on new purchases. This also extends from the parents of possible new home owners sending gift funds, which I have seen a lot of. The job creation comment I can't speak to, but a lot of people are working from home now. We also are experiencing the biggest demographic shift since WWII, as millennials are in home formation mode and are ready to buy townhouses, condo's and houses. If the concern is where buyers are getting money from, I can attest this is not an issue. If the other concern is prices going down, there is no data to support that. There is very little inventory, even less space to live, and the zoning codes are emphasizing townhouse style construction / small condo's.
The last time equity was this high and inventory this low? 2005-06!
All equity/inventory does is describe the past/present situation of the housing market. Says nothing about the future. Look to jobs, migration, and price/wage ratios for future.
@@ReventureConsulting I’m not saying the data you’re presenting isn’t important. But there are other pieces of data that hold important weight as well. Comparing anything to 2005 2006 seems improper. Regulations are different. For example, Credit scores for home loans are very high. I believe the highest in 20 years which is the inverse of what happened in 2005-2008.
I and many others invest in Los Angeles county, orange county. We do very well financially. Most of the profit is made in the purchase. If you’re asking me what the market we will have in 10 years - I think I would lean more towards your data. But my exit is five years or less - every bit of data that I can find points to a solid market with good drivers behind it.
@@Mercedes1995I forgot all about this video. LA has been, and is doing well for the reasons I stated before. Inventory is key, maybe the most important factor when combined with home equity position. Main factors will always be 1. Can someone stay in their home if they lose their job for a while (2 years?) so good equity levels allow that to happen. Which means many less foreclosures and quick sales. 2. How many houses are available compared to how many people are looking. This can get more detailed into demographics, location, price of home, new building permits - but each of those require additional inputs. Anyway, rates should level off now and I'd expect to see 30 year fixed near 5% within 12 months based on current lenders comments. That will be enough to drive another boom to housing into the next (coincidental?) Presidential election.
I know people buying distressed properties in New Orleans, completely rebuilding and renting out four plex's all hanu. These guys are making almost 30% cap out there, so I guess its all how you do it. Im seeing money being made out there weekly.
G-DIRT That’s a great point - regardless of the broader trend in the market, good deals can always be had. 30% cap is crazy!
I would be interested in your great analysis of Las Vegas? Great job!
Stay away from Vegas. There's no water. Lake Meade going down! What?!? No water. Yikes
We're fd
Very interesting analysis, seems to be spot on.
We've been tracking the price of "horse properties" in the Treasure Valley of Idaho (includes Boise) for a year. The prices have been through the roof, with many homes on 2-10 acres going for 200-300% more (that is correct--200-300 percent) than they sold for in 2018, as cash deals above asking price, with 2-3 days on the market, without inspections. Many in the Treasure Valley said "That's just the way it is and you better buy quick or you will pay more tomorrow". We have seen a significant cooling in the past 1-2 months, with properties stagnating on the market, with many less pending sales and recently Idaho brokers calling us, telling us to offer $50K-$90K BELOW the asked for $900,000+ for horse properties we were looking at. There may be a very painful correction in Idaho's Treasure Valley / Boise housing market before the summer of 2022.
I've been hearing this about L.A since the 80s and property here has gone up 1000%. The weather alone makes the world want to live here. Nothing going down here. Maybe it'll stabalize.
Home prices in LA went down by nearly 40% in the last crash!
Don't compare the mortgage crisis to now. We all want houses to be 300k in LA. Never happening. Prices on my block went from 800k 3 years ago to 1.4 now
Yep, people just go to where the jobs are. Why would I buy a house in the middle of nowhere without the possibility of finding a job. It's just plain common sense.
Wait for the big one
@@xih777
The big one has been coming for 100 years. Don't think it's an issue for anyone buying a house in southern ca.
I think the part you are missing is that Austin has nowhere near the amount of housing units as Phoenix. Austin is a very small city. So of course there will be a much higher percentage of housing permits than its existing supply in contrast to much larger cities like the Philly and Pheonix metros. You are not comparing apples to apples. You are comparing 2nd and 3rd tier cities in size and scale to 1st tier cities.
The cities below are all roughly the same size. Permits over the last year for each.
Austin - 45k
Nashville - 28k
Las Vegas - 15k
Columbus - 12k
San Jose - 6k
The hottest areas will fall the hardest... just watch!!!! Not in order:
AZ
FL
NV
TX
Yup!
Everyone who bought in 2021 is really happy they avoided the “do not buy” advice. (especially leveraging the low interest rates)
Don’t agree with your analysis of Austin in terms of new housing permits. You always have to see how the demand is? How many people are flocking to Austin’s? When you see the demand and supply both you will see the whole picture. I am sure number of people migrating into Austin is far more than the other cities you compared it to. Austin’s hype is real. There is a reason why people are moving there - I believe the judgment of common person.
I meant to say “I trust the judgment of common person “
New subscriber. Finding your content valuable 👍👊
Thanks for informative videos. I can work anywhere remotely (don't need job locally). So, wondering which cities are best to relocate to research future real estate investments ? I am thinking Vegas, LA, Denver, Austin, Tampa,FL
Thanks for the comment Sunny! That’s a great position to be in. I moved to Austin recently and love it. It’s quality of life is high and it’s much more affordable than LA and even Denver.
@@ReventureConsultingy Oh everyone is moving to Austin. I might too in a month or so. What do you think of real estate market in San Antonio ? (just an hour south I think).
Lake Meade is receding. There is no water. 😳. Vegas no go.
This is a great channel! Concise, clear information. One of the things I've noticed about all channels however is that they are inaccurate with their information about Boise. This has led me to do a localized Google search for any place I am looking to buy investment property. When this was made 5 months ago he said the median home price for Boise was $375,000. In January of this year the median home price for a home in Boise was $489,000. As of June of 2021 the median home price was $523,000. I think looking at historical information and national information works pretty well, but when there is a real hot spot like Boise it makes more sense to Google median home sales prices for the previous month and check out local institutions like newspapers for that town for the most accurate information. Boise is unsustainable, much like he said. The value to income ratio was bad if he'd been accurate with the median home sales price of 375. But with an average home price of over half a million dollars leads me to believe that the town I call home is a bubble waiting to pop.
Thanks for the comment Thomas! The data I quoted wasn't median sales price - it was the typical home value in the market according to Zillow. Note that most markets are seeing median sales prices higher than the typical value since most of the transactions over the last 12 months have been on higher-end homes.
@@ReventureConsulting that makes sense as far as value goes as opposed to median sales price. I'm not sure what the accurate value of these houses is now though. Of the 1100 or so homes currently listed for sale in Boise proper there's probably ten or so that are listed at about 375 or below. A typical three bedroom two bath home that needs updating in my neighborhood lists for about 475,000. The one bedroom one bath (540 sq ft) next door to me sold for $430,000 a couple weeks ago. Not a high-end home by any standards. Just a normal neighborhood, close to parks, downtown and the college. Hi and homes now list for $750,000 or above. The homes that were considered very high-end three years ago that were a million dollars. Easily list from 1.75 to 2.2 million now. It is wholly unsustainable what has happened. With median salaries being about $25 an hour. There was a point this winter where we were seeing 20% appreciation month over month in sales prices. Median home sales prices went from 380,000 to 523,000 in the course of about 14 months.
As an investor none of it pencils out anymore.
What do you think of Knoxville Tennessee for investment property?
Boise is now in July 2021 over $500,000 for avg home.
You should only buy a house if you have a stable job or income on that specific area or city regardless of the location - Plain & simple!
You should only buy a house if you already have the money to do so and do not need to take out a mortgage, even plainer and simpler
@@xsw882 , a mortgage is better if your monthly rental is much higher. At least you can get something back if you sell the house compared to just throwing money away with rent.
@@coconutmix yea get "something" back but u still owe, it could very well be the case that u sell ur home and still owe money on ur mortgage, its easy to lose more than 100% of ur investment when ur levered up, real estate is the one market where participants cannot grasp this
@@xsw882 , property or housing value always goes up. Even if you owe something, you get the equity back. Some people buy properties at a cheaper price and sell them twice the value later on. Some also would rent them out that's why a lot of people get rich with a real estate business. It's one of.the best investment as long as you do it wisely.
It’s going to be very interesting to see the bubble burst in Boise; and the rest of the state!
Sorry bud, it’s not going to, it may drop 30-50k but new homes are sold out and rent is sky high.when you see 150k price growth 30k isn’t that big a deal.
@@vipcesh You sound like you are trying to convince yourself, hope you're right.
Can you explain Las Vegas
Fun fact: if you had bought a home in any of the cities he mentioned here you would’ve built equity if you bought when he told you not to.
Some of the political decisions made post Hurricane Katrina contributed to its lack of recovery. There is interesting information about this in the book The Shock Doctrine, by Naomi Klein.
Can you do cities outside the United States? Because all your videos are convincing me that the USA is not where I want to buy real estate
Great point! I will get to international markets at some point.
Apartment building permits don’t give the full picture of the supply and demand in Austin. So many new car and technology companies have moved to Austin increasing demand for housing for their employees. Austin has a lot of protected greenbelt so available lots are few and far between. Local realtors tell a diff story of very few houses on the market compared to previous years with a much greater supply due to migration from coasts and new companies. Not sure this high demand low supply will be over-corrected by these apartment permits in order to crash the housing market there.
NYC has faced worse than this in 1930s & 1970s. The recessions he presented notes the 90s & forward. NYC will come back.
Thanks for the comment!
We'll have to see. One thing to note is that NYC did not have much competition for business and industry back in the 1930s & 70s, so it was easier to bounce back.
These days Alliance Bernstein is going to Nashville and Goldman AM is going to Miami. Plus remote work is real.
wait til the bottom
I live in one of the worst places to buy a house, good old ky. They will not build any new homes it seems unless someone goes to the builders and gets it done themself. houses went from like 120k for brand new house to over 500k for a new home in like 15 years. seen a house sell for 200k that was rotten inside and destroyed. lol I get a loan for house and its maxed at 200k for 1350 a month. Who cant afford that shit and even if we could the only house we could afford is a shit hole.. Rent went from 600 to 1300 for like a 1 or 2 bedroom. im in the hood with drive byes and have to pay 900 a month. lol shit is crazy.
Could you please make a video about Toronto, Canada ?
This guy doesn't know what the hell he is talking about. Lived in Austin, TX for the last 10 years, and my property value has tripled. There are jobs everywhere here. Extensive growth in the tech industry, no property tax and a great place to live are factors have that have brought so many here. Texas is also a very financially healthy state that grants corporations a great deal of tax incentives. We don't have the corruption or other financial problems of other states such as California because we are fiscally responsible. Yes, the growth has affected affordability here. But this guy is telling you not to buy property here because there is already "so much under construction" is an incredulous argument. He doesn't understand that the high demand for jobs fuels the housing market. Corporations continue to flock to Austin because the incentives completely outweigh the negatives, and Austin is constructing a 7.1B rail system that will resolve the traffic issue. Unfortunately, people like the creator of this video will say just about anything in order to make a buck or two on youtube. But this argument he presents is pure fiction. There is absolutely no credibility to what this guy is saying. He quotes Zillow as a data source, that's his first mistake. Anybody with any sort of inherent knowledge regarding the Austin real estate market knows that Zillow is a complete joke
Thanks for your comment John!
I agree with your points regarding Austin's tremendous economy and growth. I actually made a video on this topic that you can check out here:
czcams.com/video/0_8yTopB1KY/video.html
However, real estate isn't just about demand. Supply is just as important, and Austin is in the midst of a housing glut currently.
Apartment owners in the city are going through a very tough time with decreasing rents and increasing concessions. Expect these struggles to spill over to the Single-Family market by the end of 2021.
What do you actually know for fact about Austin, because your argument is way off. The reasons you give for buying property in Austin are not credible. Do you actually live and invest here, or are you just projecting your unqualified opinion?
@@MigrantFromVenezuela My arguments against Austin are rooted in hard data from the US Census Bureau, which tracks economic growth, household formation, and new permitting across the country. These variables are the fundamental drivers of real estate appreciation.
And yes, I do live in Austin.
That data does not say or suggest "don't buy property in Austin." You are extracting various pieces of information and drawing those conclusions. There is a difference
John Tamel Thanks for your comments on this. We’ll have to agree to disagree for now. Let’s check back in 12-18 months!
I was wondering what you thought about the Bryan/College Station area for buying a home in 2021. I ask because it has a big State University system core. Its only about 80 miles to the East yet has a lot of attributes of Austin. Many designs have been discussed for high speed electric railway, in addition to its current freight railway system, it also serves as a nexus of several major highway systems in the state. Its also on the closest side of Austin to the Tesla factory. Outside the Hurricane, Tornado and most bad climate weather regions and has a fair regional airport. I sound like an advertisement.. but I live here and was thinking about buying.
Thanks for the comment John!
You bring up a lot of compelling points about Bryan/College Station. Why don't you fill out a contact form on the Reventure Website and we can discuss the real estate dynamics of this area in more detail. reventureconsulting.com/contacts/
Austin's home supply is at all time lows. They also have Tesla, Oracle, and others moving into the city. Inventory is maybe 60 days right now and not getting better.
Mark Jones That’s a good point Mark! There is a difference between Austin’s home and apartment market currently. One thing to note is that Austin approved a record amount of single family home construction in 2020. We’ll see that hit the market later this year.
@@ReventureConsulting how do you feel about purchasing an apartment in Austin? Do they appreciate as much as a single family home?
Tom Petty I am not a fan of the Austin apartment market. Rents are already down year over year just as a record amount of new apartment inventory was permitted for development. On top of all that yields are low. It will take a long time for the apartment to produce any type of real cash flow.
@@ReventureConsulting I understand. What kind of apt appreciation rates are seen in Austin? Seems like investors are buying up all inventory and banking on appreciation. People made a killing this year by just holding
@@SilverbugInc
If you have a long-term outlook, and are okay with little to no cash flow in the short to intermediate term, then buying for appreciation might make sense.
The problem comes in with how many units Austin is permitting. It is difficult to achieve strong long-run appreciation in a market where the housing supply is expanding by 4-5% per year.
Wait. What? It almost sounds like investing in real estate is all about location, location, and location ;-) Another tip: Buy low, sell high ;-)
Great video and appreciate your approach. Do you consider Orange County as part of the LA metro and concern. ?
I would like to hear about Asheville, NC. Thanks.
I like smart people. Subscribed
What about Virginia Beach Virginia should I wait?
give me your opinion on Kansas city KS
Wouldn't that mean that markets like Austin and Nashville will also see the biggest crash in the near future? If they have too many rentals/houses available? So currently you might want to avoid those markets because of the potential loss, but keep an eye on them for good deals.
Man, all these areas have something in common, just cant put my finger on it...
What about NJ? We have a huge house shortage due to lots of people moving from NY. Prices are up high to the point where they were before 2007.
NJ is an interesting market - low long-term growth, but also very little new supply being built. I would be slightly nervous about this recent demand being temporary, as any type of NYC bounce back would likely hurt NJ real estate.
@@ReventureConsulting IMO opinion, we are in a renter's market and there is no place better to rent as a poor person as NJ, it has the most well connected public transportation in the world and its economy isn't facing as many challenges as others, plus legalized weed and online gambling and other industries forming. I don't think theres many other places you can live as a poor person with a used car or take the bus and live within walking distance of food and your job
You should do one on Cape Coral, FL!
I looked into Cap Coral. Not a bad place at all. There's not much of inventory available. Of course it depends on where you want to live in Cape Coral? Remember Florida as one of the state's that is getting a lot of newbies.
Boston is expensive here, almost every house here is 1 million + , more then what the city have assessed it for
Thanks for the comment! That's a good point - Boston's expensive prices make it hard for normal families to buy a home.
I bought a triple decker house in Somerville just adjacent to Boston, in 1999 for $220k. The seller was divorcing and let it go for a song, which he later regretted. Sold it in 2003 for around 270k. I was pleased with that because i had steady income renting out 2 floors and living on one myself. I recently saw that house on Zillow, or one of the sites. The price to sell was listed at $900k. That's just insane.
So right about Boise, what about coeur D’Alene
Beautiful city, shit people.
In your Boise video will you compare other parts of the state?
We are building a home (should finish in December) in Idaho falls on the other side of the state, and the market here is nuts. I am very nervous to close on it and more than double the mortgage from our starter home.
Will touch upon other areas in Idaho!
Thank u for your videos helps me a lot
Thanks for the kind words Oscar!
Could you make videos on individual states and how the real-estate is growing or declining
Atlanta/its suburbs as well. My agent friend told me a $2M listing had $4M offers. Cash. NE/NY buyers sold this spring and are buying cash @ 50-100% of asking price increase regardless of price point.
Great insights
Your spot on with newyork .
Thanks!
I'd like to hear some info about South Florida
I guessed NY lol You cannot go anywhere without spending $20 to $30 in Taxes per item. Unreal 🤦
Thanks for the comment! That's right - NY is not very economically friendly right now. If you want to learn more about the issues the city is facing, watch this video that I just put out: czcams.com/video/pJbBuX_sG8Y/video.html
Cuomo's Mafia Tax🤣
@@pearlperlitavenegas2023 Donkey Factz 💀🤦
Just took Uber from JFK, 1:30 midnight, about 10 miles ride, $98......
I don't know if you did this but It would be nice that you do a video comparing and contrasting markets i.e. Phoenix vs. Chicago. Speaking of Chicago, what are your thoughts about that market?
Brian Geiger Thanks for the comment! That’s a great suggestion with comparing and contrasting markets. Chicago is a low growth market that is in a bit of secular decline (declining population and jobs). However, it is a safe market to invest since there’s minimal new supply.
I'd say no. Their property taxes are insane.
@@thomasperez5643 If you want to see high property taxes come to Texas!
Boise ID
If you come to the southeast be prepared to be schooled on how to treat your neighbor. We don’t cater to the rich🤣
Love it!
You need to add Vegas to your list
Haha! Maybe. I'll do an updated one of these soon.
Denver.
Pinhook, TN
Is it possible that with all those rich California cash buyers coming to Boise keeping the market up and it's great covid/ job recovery rate that the prices don't pop?
It's possible. Likely? Probably not. If prices in California were to go down, or anything bad were to happen in tech, it would create big problems for Boise.
how about the impact of climate change for long term investing... say into coastal areas
That's a tough one to peg. If you check out my Miami video you'll see that concerns about sea level rise could already be impacting certain neighborhoods there.
But there might be ways they can get around it. For instance, in Boston they are making buildings in the seaport now where the 2nd floor can become the new ground floor if the original ground floor is flooded.
Oklahoma City ? Thank you !
Excellent info as usual.🕶
What about las Vegas?
Thanks for the comment Yanni! I will be touching upon Vegas in a future video! Subscribe and stay tuned!
I want to know about Las Vegas too
Nice data analysis
Thank you!
What are your thoughts on Nashville? Thanks for all your help!
Check video history!
Crash on horizon!
What about Louisiana
Love your videos, take my sub now! Keep it up
Love the kinds words! Thank you!
Any thoughts on Houston?
lol since this video Boise has gone up to like 450k. Thanks CA. but ya....can't go on forever.
Yeah what’s going on Boise is crazy! Will be a tough downturn when it hits.
@@ReventureConsulting i got my modestly small house here in boise in nov 2017. If i didnt have a good job i might think about selling and getting 50 percent of a down payment for a house in OKC. What do you think about Oklahoma city area? Cheap new construction houses there.
As soon as California stops collapsing then prices will fall hard. But CA keeps doubling down on terrible policies and high taxes and everyone of any means is getting out.
@@shootermcgavin4999 tornado alley
Oh boy, this video is going to piss off a lot of people.
You're right! People are very protective of their local real estate markets. That's why using data is so important!
Ist there going to be a time when we can buy a foreclosed properties?
Nope!
Yeah... but Austin has Tesla and other great companies like ICON. It could be the new tech meca!
Also... don't mess with Texas! (I live in Georgia)
Seattle gets a bad rap because of what goes on downtown but, anywhere outside of the central part of the city is really nice quiet and safe.
Good point1
Was expecting to see San Francisco
If the average family can not afford an LA home value then what has kept the values so high?
Great question! Strong economic growth combined with minimal building from 2015-20 really out LAs hope prices into high gear.
It will be interesting to see what happens now that LA is in a full scale recession and many people have left the city.
Foreign buyers.
Chinese buyers and hedge funds
What’s happening in the Tampa Bay Fl area?