the "batman" problem is you are starting out with roughly 2x the debit - deeper in the hole - and you will likely only have a chance at profit on one end of the trade.
@fuzzyboomboom9742 I'd like to talk more about your 0 DTE thoughts. This BF strategy is working for me but I want to know more. My X handle is Redengineer.
yes of course it matters when you get in, as theta accelerates thru the day. Generally, the later you enter and the narrower your fly spread is, the less likely it is that you will make any positive return.
Definitely putting it later in the day hurts you, but I’ve found that my chances of being profitable went up when I recently decreased my width from $30 wide to $20 wide. If the market is super volatile, you might want to be a little wider so that you can catch the move inside your butterfly, and it doesn’t get blown out on the far wing. If volatility is low, you don’t want to be paying for the potential to profit off a dramatic move that isn’t likely to happen. So I was paying $300 for the opportunity to make $3000, but on my best days I was only getting a move that was worth $1,600 of profit. If I’m understanding it right, higher volatility = wider wings.
Theta decay advances aggressively thru the day and there are various studies that show this on tasty. This will narrow the possibility of profit throughout the day. The common mythology trading these 0dte flys is that you will have some near 100% losses on doji days and also on days when large moves blow past the far wing of the fly - but, you'll make all that back on some outsized winners. Well, even Ernie here has shown that those large wins occur
@@fuzzyboomboom9742 I’m also a big Tasty fan, and I use their short premium methods for the majority of my portfolio, and it actually works really well in concert with the 0dte flies. When volatility decreases, my short positions win. When volatility increases, my flies win. Even after making a couple mistakes that hurt me recently, I’m still up $4K on 0dte Batmans in my $80K portfolio, and I only started in August. But to each their own.
the "batman" problem is you are starting out with roughly 2x the debit - deeper in the hole - and you will likely only have a chance at profit on one end of the trade.
@fuzzyboomboom9742 I'd like to talk more about your 0 DTE thoughts. This BF strategy is working for me but I want to know more. My X handle is Redengineer.
yes of course it matters when you get in, as theta accelerates thru the day. Generally, the later you enter and the narrower your fly spread is, the less likely it is that you will make any positive return.
Definitely putting it later in the day hurts you, but I’ve found that my chances of being profitable went up when I recently decreased my width from $30 wide to $20 wide. If the market is super volatile, you might want to be a little wider so that you can catch the move inside your butterfly, and it doesn’t get blown out on the far wing. If volatility is low, you don’t want to be paying for the potential to profit off a dramatic move that isn’t likely to happen. So I was paying $300 for the opportunity to make $3000, but on my best days I was only getting a move that was worth $1,600 of profit.
If I’m understanding it right, higher volatility = wider wings.
I have not noticed any difference between entering right after the market opens, compared to opening up to 90 mi mutes later.
@@0DTE that’s good to know! I might get a little more sleep, then
Theta decay advances aggressively thru the day and there are various studies that show this on tasty. This will narrow the possibility of profit throughout the day.
The common mythology trading these 0dte flys is that you will have some near 100% losses on doji days and also on days when large moves blow past the far wing of the fly - but, you'll make all that back on some outsized winners.
Well, even Ernie here has shown that those large wins occur
@@fuzzyboomboom9742 I’m also a big Tasty fan, and I use their short premium methods for the majority of my portfolio, and it actually works really well in concert with the 0dte flies. When volatility decreases, my short positions win. When volatility increases, my flies win. Even after making a couple mistakes that hurt me recently, I’m still up $4K on 0dte Batmans in my $80K portfolio, and I only started in August. But to each their own.
What is the cost of this service?
It is $6k per year. Financing available.
Hi Ernie, can a complete newbie to trading come in on your service and succeed with this or it's best for those who have a trading background?
We teach all members to trade at a pro level
Too many batmans to max loss gave me a nasty drawdown. Building it back up though
You should never allow a Batman go to full loss. You need to manage the loss to no more than 50%
@@0DTE that’s a good idea except it seemed like EVERY TIME it would come close to the profit tent until market close it was crazy.