Stagflation? Not! A data-backed look at the current economy
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 2. 05. 2024
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One quarter does not stagflation make. True, the March quarterâs real GDP growth rate was down from the December quarterâs, while inflation was up-a combination that calls to mind âstagflation.â But the current economic scenario is nothing like the stagflationary environment of the late 1970s, when the combination of anemic GDP growth and out-of-control inflation crippled economic activity. ⊠Today, we look at data confirming that economic activity is continuing apace-with consumers consuming, housing recovering, and businesses investing-and that PCED inflation remains on a moderating track, within our target range for the year.
The dog walked out of the room when Ed mentioned a rate increase (which is my bet). too funny.
King Charles Cavaliers are the best dogs in the world!
I totally agree that itâs all well and good and have been well positioned for this. But, would the trajectory of fiscal deficits worry you? How much of the current strength in private sector spending is due to the government largesse? When would bond vigilantes come back, if at all? How about a mini version of bond massacre like what took place in 1994? Thoughts? Appreciate your work
The second dog walked out of the room when Ed mentioned how strong the service sector was.....
What sequence of events could result in a 2nd half 2024 US recession? What leading data would you look at to confirm your opinion that a recession this year is unlikely? How about the impact Treasury rates and office vacancies have on regional banks?
MAX!
Crude Oil and Copper are linked, copper has taken off without crude, I would wait for a realignment.