Why Nvidia and AI-Related Stocks Are Selling Off
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- čas přidán 18. 04. 2024
- Nvidia shares fall as much as 11% Friday, the worst intraday drop since September 2022, amid a broader selloff in technology stocks. Tom Giles has more.
For more on this story, please see: www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
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Thank you for this Pointer.
Don't listen to him, this is the real story.
Stocks have been on a downturn because inflation numbers have been too high for 3 months.
The fed has started to pull back on expectations of rate cuts. The rally that started in November started based on the expectations of 6 rate cuts this year.
There is a realization that we may have none.
On top of that we have war escalating in the middle east.
Today the market reacted to super micro's news, especially the semi.
Something to consider. The new Blackwell 100 Nvidia is releasing will have far more compute with far less
need to build servers. The space they are going to take up for comparable compute to previous systems is being minimized, as is the energy that the Blackwell consumes.
Companies like super micro will not benefit from more compact compute systems that are scaling well.
That does not mean that NVDA will do poorly. Their margins should increase as they are now another generation above their peers.
Having said that, the NASDAQ is selling off with all the other indices because of the inflation and macro data relating to interest rates. So tread cautiously until the market finds a floor.
fed manipulating the market every time he opens his big mouth. Inflation is not even that bad at 3.5%, it's the energy sector that's inflating that number. If he doesn't cut rates people are going to start loosing their jobs. Tsla already is cutting 10% off it's workforce, apple is cutting around 500 jobs, and so are many other companies.
The comments from "expert" are truly noise in the market. The market is irrational a lot of times and you don't need to use your sort of logical analysis to explain it. For long term investor, ignore these noise. the fundamental wont change overnight, it takes years
The market is definitely irrational at times!
I have to say - it doesn't explain the sell off in one day.
Yeah, where they gonna invest their funds if this wind blows away? Ai is only option.
@@kadd4415 To scare off small investors on hype train, they always make reasons for dumping their stock for further increasing their shares cheaply.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Another great video, thanks! I think the market is over-heated. And I am concerned that people are focusing less on fundamentals and just chanting the mantra of dollar cost averaging and driving the market higher without considering fundamentals. It is a catch-22 for me. I mean I like stock prices going higher but I also hate buying over-priced stocks and ETFs. Personally, I have stopped buying growth ETFs- they are ridiculously over-valued. Dividend stocks and ETFs are a little better but they are still over-valued. There is some hope with small and mid caps. I am not sure they are undervalued but at least they are less over-valued..This pattern offers a valuable insight for strategic planning. Despite these trends, i have delve deeply into active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 442k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Kelvin Hurdle, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape
He mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name..
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He appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on his name and came across his website. Thank you for sharing.
I read about him too on the website. That is how I got connected to him. Thanks for putting this down here.
Profitable trading requires experience, a solid strategy, and preparation, which we lack. Understanding buy/sell ratios, identifying market leaders, and diversifying are key to reducing risk.
TSMC said that demand for AI related chips is extremely high. Do you need them to spell it out for you? ASML is a different story. Their high end equipment is low volume and sold to a limited number of customers. Maybe those customers just don't have the ability to take a lot of new equipment right now. New fabs take time.
Patience. Those high-NA EUV machines are going to be in high demand if not the end of this year, then next. Expect a Japanese fab to emerge.
very true, those photolitography machines cost hundereds of millions of dollars only the biggest companies can afford them.
That's what I was thinking. TSMC already said AI chips demand are very high to the extent they still need new capacity to keep it up. The only thing that panicky investors picked on was the comment on guidiance. TSM now offer guidiance of growth around 10% instead of the previous 10% or more, certainly a more conservative expression but then all hell broke loose because of that.
ASML business was probably a seasonal factor. Don't forget they are still a monopoly and the semiconductor companies need their machines. But it may not be happening every quarter. I mean, do we buy a new fridge or a new TV every 3 months?
Sometimes I think Wall Street behave like pertulant brats.
I also think that some of these companies are extremely over valued though like PLTR and AMD, these two were valued at 300 times their earnings LOL peple are ridiculous when they start inflating the prices of these companies without knowing anything about them.
@@bl1204 I don't think this happened because of TSM earnings it happened because of inflation and because super micro not coming out and commenting or previewing their earinings like they usually do. I wouldn't be surpriced if their guidance is much lower than expected or they missed earnings. Too many idiots buying all semiconductor stocks without knowing anything about them thus causing an artificial inflation in the stock prices with no fundamental backing. For example AMD and PLTR were valued at 300 times their earnings at one point LOL.
Its not about the AI. Its all about the market. Nothing changed and the science of AI coninue its path. But market players n sponsored medias are the ones who play "the narration". It's a good show😊
I totally agree with you!
"Is AI really just majic fairy dust?" ... geez... BTFD
Funny, Lilly sold off too. I didn’t realise drugs were AI miracles as well!
that's because lilly's price is also inflated, most of the stocks are actually overpriced.
Look at the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to commodities. That ratio showed a sharp peak at the time of the Internet bubble, and a sharp peak now. Back at the time of the internet bubble peak, vakue stocks were cheap and ultimately outperformed the tech stocks. Some of the high fliers from back then, eg. Cisco, have never regained their former highs. I dont know if this is a repeat or not, but having lived through the internet bubble, and having worked for a tech company at that time, I personally steer very clear of anything that looks like a bubble.
Yes, this is a bubble. And, in my opinion, a very stupid one, to be honest. I don't know if Nvidia will end up like Cisco, it's impossible to predict, but it is a fact that their rises have notable similarities.
@@matheusacioli2861For me, the risk/reward is much better elsewhere. I won't re-enter tech until I see proverbial blood in the streets.
Dot-com bubble was speculative, unprofitable startups. Cisco peaked at around 200 PE. The companies involved in AI are the largest and most profitable companies in the world. Nvidia's PE isn't much different than what it was BEFORE everyone started talking about AI.
@@mikebuchanan7610 I generally agree with that characterization. With exceptions: i) Cisco was 16 years old and already an established leader in 2000, ii) we don't yet know where this will end, the bubble may be just getting rolling, iii) it doesn't have to develop as severely to still be a bubble, iv) the ratio that I mentioned points at an anomaly.
what are you using as a commodities metric?
I'd long. AI has a lot more potential than what has become commercial so far
Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%. Please what could be my safest buys with $400k to outperform the market in 2024?
What a complete DF.
Market hysteria, manipulation and nonsensical BS. The underlying value of the company remains.
Traders love volatility. Look at trading divisions of banks and hft shops
Good time for correction. AI has pumped the markets up so far and made FED comfy. Soon all of a sudden we will see inflation going down and FED discussing reducing the rates:)
Ai is similar to the beginning of the internet, it’s new, early and we don’t even know what possibilities it will bring yet. For those reasons I don’t care if we have 10%, 50% or even 75% dips in NVDA and other Ai powerhouse companies, I’m accumulating weekly for the long term.
Lucky you, i have almost no money left for the dips…
Have you heard of the dot come crash. Nvidia has been around since 1993, it's never been anything spectacular
@@bdegrds Now is not the bursting of the Ai bubble. The FED and geopolitical issues are spooking the market, just look at all Tech right now.
Well, in my opinion, everyone who understands about knows that GPTs were a massive revolution for AI field and CS. But, they're not easily scalable and there's a multibilionaire cost to keep large-scale models running. For now, big techs are spending these billions and not charging anything, but eventually they will and this can cause these models to simply not compensate for many users. That's the biggest limitation of the current revolution, sum this to the fact that GPT technologies already reached a development limit (or are close to) and now, to keep evolving them, is necessary a colossal investment in infrastructure and you will see why this bubble, different from internet's bubble, unlikely will survive for long. Keep evolving GPTs don't see to be the path AI will follow as it can easily be unneficient, so we need another revolution. But, when this revolution will come? It's impossible to predict.
I love ChatGPT. I use it frequently. But it too frequently makes really dumb errors to replace a human. And I think all AI has an unstated intellectual property liability in regards to training content that the industry has not yet grappled with. They're one law away from being wiped out for lack of free training data.
Still don’t know how people can blindly trust on chatgpt, unless they have some secret one for government, it doesn’t seem to change the world like people always hype about but maybe I’m too short sighted idk
I think you are not looking into the future, AI is not only chat GPT it's much more than that. These systems can be used in many other applications for example to diagnose cancer based on past diagnostic CT from patients way before the cancer develops, for autonomous driving cars, for human like androids that will do most of the functions of humans etc. I think what happened here is that too many idiots inflated the prices of these stocks without knowing anything about investing and hence this correction. They are great companies nontheless this is coming from a process engineer working in the semiconductor industry.
@@DavejrJr-pf2dd Yes yes, I wasn't talking about the ChatGPT, but about GPTs (Generative Pre-trained Transformers), which caused this whole bubble. All these tecnologies (autonomous cars, humanoid robots and many others) exists for more than a decade, but never caused a bubble.They improved a lot in the last years that's right, specially because of the heavy investment recently, but modern GPTs are something new that were theorized in 2017 by Google engineers and only in 2022 an AI service based on GPT was launched to the public (ChatGPT), which impressed the world and caused all this. The problem is that this model has it's limitations and we probably reached a peak of it's development, causing we to need another revolution like GPTs, but, as I mentioned, it's hard to predict when it will come because nobody has any applicable idea of how to do this right now.
If someone can get the latest figures on the growth of AI data centers being built and developed with NVIDIA resources under Sovereign Sponsorships and Financing, that would be helpful to examine?
Kale, Arcai berries, fat free, sugar free, superfoods, snake oils, derivatives, Tesla, AMC, Truth Media, fentanyl,…Ai. Solar panels, bitcoins, bat droppings, and worker retention credits.
I bet you use that excuse every week to lay out of work lol
People don't understand that the stock's price is determined by people sentiment and not by the company's value or profits. If sentiment is bad the stock price will drop.
Short term yes. Long term no.
That's not necesarily true, if a company keep posting stellar earnings or very good earnings it's extremely likely that the stock will go up because they have the cashflow to pay it's stockholders. I think what happened here is that too many idiots inflated the prices of these companies by buying their stock without even knowing anything about investing. For example there was a point where AMD's stock was inflated to 300 times it's earnings, I would never buy a company that expensive, I always stick with companies in the 15 to 20 range because I know they have potential to grow. This is correction because the prices are inflated, the companies still are reputable and good though but not at those inflated prices.
1) AI overrated 2) Recession coming / already under the surface
Some of the most recent developments will change the "is AI helping you with your customers?" question. The current answer is "not much," but be patient. Soon the answer will be "you bet, and we can't get enough." Things will look ho-hum until they don't. You can't time it except that some of the new video technology (e.g., face animation) will make AI assistants much, much more compelling. I should add: there's a similar story with ASML's high-NA EUV machines; there's lots of 'look, no one's buying.' Again, patience. Fabs will, at some point before the end of the decade, sprout like mushrooms.
The fear sentiment is picking up strength. There's is on average one correction (minus 10%) every year. Perspective. Question is are we still in a bull market. Probably
China
NOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
hard to be in a bull market when the fed manipulates the market every time he opens his big mouth. Inflation is not even that bad at 3.5%, it's the energy sector that's inflating that number. If he doesn't cut rates people are going to start loosing their jobs.
I’m moving from NVIDIA to Tesla
Nvidia was overbought that's why it's going down. And so is the entire market.
PLTR is the best A.I. software stock according to Dan Ives who call's it the Messi of A.I.
I mean what did you expect? They made massive moves mostly on speculation that there would be at least 6 rate cuts this year!
Good point.. the market has been crazy lately, a few surprises here and there.. with all the global happenings taking place I think it’s safe to say that a severe global recession is looming..
End of 2022, after all time high, nvidia dropped 50 % just to tripple till today... the markets do what the market do
People are taking p p pa pa ppa ppa profits!!!!
Invest in silver and gold not paper physical silver and gold.
Throwing the baby out with the bath water when you tank NVDA. Their numbers have not been fluff. Regardless of whether other tech is monetizing and improving products, they are buying and will continue to buy Nvidia chips u til someone can put a truly competitive product into the market. I would not get caught short on NVDA heard into earnings, especially after this unwarranted sell off.
Classic pump and dump. Look at the political landscape. Better fix your house before you go jettisoning off to the future.
calling top on AI in april of 2024 will not age well
I have a masters in computer science. These clowns have no idea what nvidia really is, or what ai is, or will be 10 years from now
if people dont understand AI is very new and over years its gonna become more and more advanced hold long people are going to miss out!
It’s real simple. The market is in correction mode and AI stocks (which have been driving the market) are going to take the biggest hit. Nvidia is up over 200% since Jan 2023 a 10% correction is not a sign that AI is over. AI will change the world, we are just now building the infrastructure and nVidia is leading by a lot.
Buy the dip!
Lol
Is that you Cathy Woods?
i will buy anything that has strong projected earnings for next 6 quarters minimum
@@briantep458 At what p/e?
@@jptrainor NVDA forward 12 months is 25x
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
Nvidia is fine.
To do good AI we need good logic, with bad programmers state of mind you can’t make good AI. First start understanding yourself then try to do some good creation like God. You can’t be in same level like God with ethics out line and bad state of mind.
I am going to listen to every single comment by the CEOs and watch like a hawk checking ✔️ the next earnings results of these epic duo $NVDA and $SMCI. If they start stammering, babbling, and wobbling about future earnings its gonna be a rout and nosedive party. I have just put my seat belt on holding tight cause it's going to be a wild ride in a few weeks 😁😂🤣
China....
retaliation for tiktok ban?
It’s really simple. The market is in correction mode, because it’s time for a correction. The AI stocks which have been driving the market for the last 20+ months are going to take the biggest hit because they had the biggest growth. AI didn’t change, it’s not less valuable to the economy it’s just time for a little market correction. Even with the dip, I’m still up 200% and I’m not selling nVidia or Google. I sold AMD a while back, AMD was riding on Nvidia’s wave. AI is going to change the world, and it’s just getting started, the race is on!
"Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets”. Be careful, you're being too optimistic about AI. All this recent demand caused by GPTs is difficult to sustain unless we find another AI model that can at least scale. Today, large-scale GPT models need a colossal infrastructure and that's why the demand for semiconductors has skyrocketed, but the big techs won't keep buying these things forever in this quantity. If the market starts to feel that we're a long way from a scalable AI model, then the bubble will burst and, if you bought your shares when the bubble was at its peak, you'll be in trouble.
The stock market is gonna crash the bubble is about to burst . Get out while you can.
I like all the bulls in the comments. Lots of poverty otw
Fear mongering
bubble pop😂
You are not a smart man
Not yet, a lot of “scam” ai companies are getting funding
Not yet, a lot of “scam” ai companies are still getting funding
Ai is the future...what a crap video
I train AI. It's not gonna do shit for us for at least a decade
Oh really? AI in the Adobe Creative Suite saves 2-3 hours of work every single day. It's completely changed my life and allowed me to spend more time with my family as a studio owner.
@slytherben and that is level that it will remain at for quite a while. We aren't gonna have general intelligence for a long time
@@slytherben agreed. That fact is AI is already improving efficiency in all kinds of ways. It will help companies save money. People will and already are definitely losing jobs to AI efficiency, but reduces costs and can increase corporate profits. Palantir can provide countless examples of how AI has helped make a difference for their clients. FSD will probably end up saving lives as it gets better and better. Now we need to stop AI from extermination all humans and things will be fine. :)
I've learned about 1000s of topics and written 3 books with AI... in the past year. Scale this.
@@jshatfield115 what company do you work for? Tell us about how you train ai?
Is it finally the end of this overinflated AI bubble? I hope so, and I wouldn’t touch any of these “magnificent” stocks. There are other stocks that are magnificent that don’t need to tell me they are magnificent.
Since when are any of them ai besides nvidia? microsoft makes computers, tesla makes cars, google is ad revenue and search engines, amazon is delivery….?
@@tyrnosrsflexxbox1999 they are not, it’s the prevailing narrative that will make these stocks fall hard as the bubble deflates.
And Bloomberg remove my comments. Land of the free or home of the pinkos?
NVDA is a $5🤑🤑🤑 stock by 2029...Bargain of a lifetime...Buy Buy Buy!!!
you reckon? would love your views on it? Im in Heavy btw.
...and when NVIDIA reports their next Quarterly Earnings, people go nuts again, and everyone wants to own a tiny piece of their business! 😂
If you really think AI is just a "trend", you have no clue. The remaining 6 of the magnificent 7 are ALL buying as many AI chipd as thay can from NVIDIA, even boasting how many H100 Chips they bought, and plan to buy.
One share of NVIDIA below 800 $ is a bargain... 💪🏻
Its new and not right time to throw it out into market sot hav been in the start so it cut hav createt momentum
NIVIDIA IS A BAD INVESTMENT CRAMER IS CRAZY HE IS TOO OPTIMISTIC
Ofcuse Mr nvdia Got control over his skills, just se the best grafic card for computers. It's hissssssssssssss
Els his not a bad person mr grafic nivida. Sent a sms if you got a job and and a hiuse for me and my dog whit a airplain ticket