Why The Middle East Won't Survive Without Oil
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- čas přidán 16. 03. 2022
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Why The Middle East Won't Survive Without Oil
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I have heard that oil prices will continue to increase with the 3rd world developing that oil prices will continue upwards until the 2050s, Id like to hear your opinion on that. Its potential depending on how greener options develop
Do you support age and term limits for politicians?
This is not fully true as: they have gass too. Oile would still be needed for manythings that can't be done except with oile such as plastic for example also you would find oile products in farming and medicine too ect... Add to that that there is still many countries really on oile and gass such as Japan, SK ,China and India. Also if those countries team together they can control the prices of oile and gass. US dollar big portion of it is value still linked too to oile. They can pressure China, SK and Japan to pressure USA. They can cause world wide problems by that even when all knows that but politically they must continue as they are enemies. SK and Japan has a deeper influence.
Also, they have massive metal reserves in the west mountains of Gold and other things estimated to be Trillions worth. They have a geopolitical influence. Their location is a key geopolitical location. Especially as they control Yemen they can control one of the red sea 2 sides. Also they control a portion of the Indian Ocean. The government might not continue and get replaced but the country has a thousand solutions.
Economic Diversification can help them though I think or in my opinion
thats not the middle east that the arabian peninsula
Back in the 1970s, the Saudi oil minister at the time, Ahmed Zaki Yamani, said, "The Stone Age didn't end because they ran out of stones." He understood that the demand for oil could run out before the oil did.
I mean the prime factors that would happen why we can't used up all oil reserves is...
A) Global warming would be in dangerous levels to the point that we have to give it up oil excessively.
B) The prices would soar to such extent that the demand of oil couldn't compete the general consumers, as would create a financial bubble.
Not the most accurate (more of an exaggeration) depiction but definitely a possibility.
@@rafaeldavid32 I dont personally see global warming as being a factor in giving up oil, as you could use fossil fuels to negate the negative effects until you ran out. Part B seems much more likely
Facts
I mean comparing crude oil with stones is apples to oranges. There's nothing much one could do with Stones.
@@ashker3389 Nothing much? What? Stones were a survival need for thousands of years in human civilization. They changed it for a better MATERIAL and that it was easier to manipulate. This is why the stone age ended.
"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel"
Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum, regarding oil.
Maybe there is a Mercedes or Tesla inbetween the last two gens, but ultimately an agreeable and wise assessment.
Not really. We will go from fossil fuels to electric. So his son will ride a tesla or electric scooter rather than a camel.
@@tubester4567 the statement is about wealth.
@@jonathanodude6660 I see, then that might be true.
@@jonathanodude6660 they've managed to diversify. Haven't you watched they video
Dubai started to diversify already in the 1970,s right after the UAE was created. Digging out port jebel Ali and also moving into aliminium and ship building. And then into Airlines with Emirates airlines all state owned.
I'm curious to know if these sectors would stand on their own without oil subsidizing them... probably not.
@@jameskamotho7513 don't know about emirates but all the other businesses yes. Oil is only small fraction of dubais gdp.
lucky for dubai to have a head start
All made possible with good leadership, lack of corruption and stability
@@jameskamotho7513 oil was just a helper on this matter, I think they don't rely that match on oil to sustain the other industries 🤷🏽♂️
The idea that every developed economy can switch to a service based economy is pure fantasy.
I think so. Every country is unique, in terms of what resources can drive their economy.
And it's more than just Jobs that drive the economy.
It's also the management of resources that a country has.
Some countries have more flexibility. Due to an abundance of resources.
Others have to be more careful with how they use them. Such as Land, Agriculture, Energy, and Recycling.
Manufacturing in developed countries will likely be fully or almost fully automated in the future.
Service jobs can also be automated. Software has already wiped out a lot of jobs in finance sector, and we've all seen how the internet has killed off a lot of retail shops.
@@JollyOldCanuck you need physical ressources to automate an entire economy, how do you do that without fossil fuels?
@@leonmorel789 Nuclear power is definitely an option for most developed countries given recent breakthroughs in efficiency.
OH MY DAYS ITS A NEW VIDEO FROM HIM
It’s chewsday innit?
@@iPupusa it’s Friday now! 😂
Gulf countries: Creating a vision for 2030 and 2035.
Iraq: What is a vision?!
haha lol
Iraq is politically too fractured to have a vision for anything at this point. That kind of vision needs a centralized government with total control over national assets
Iraq of course has no vision. But Iran has a vision for them (Make them as puppet, thank to US that help them).
@@FitraRahim Iran can't make Iraq a puppet in the long run since Iran is stagnating pretty seriously. To the point that the national security is threatened. Low birth rates coupled with an aging population under some of the worst possible economic conditions (high inflation, no savings by boomers , Dutch disease, no easy access to global markets, awful place to do business even domestically since small businesses are constantly fuked because of government manipulating exchange rates and beuracracy is a nightmare).
@@frostthron8009 Sadaam was right man for the job, he should have been left in power with a demilitarized Iraq.
It's so terrible. Rates are rising, inflation is peaking. Pretty much everything is going south. Just coming from a post where they said stocks are also getting hit. There's no single good news on the net. So it begs the question, how and where are intending investors now supposed to put their money. Is there no safe bet for newbies any longer?
Has to still be Stocks, most drops are temporary. Made my first million through it earlier this year at the peak of the inflation and all as a "newbie" (with the help of a pro though) I can comfortably retire now if I wanted to.
@@dannywalters958 Impressive! I have been into most of these for long and though I won't say I have lost a fortune, I have squandered quite a lot... If it's not a problem, do you mind recommending the pro you worked with? I could definitely use the help of one right now... I look forward to your reply...
fr there is no single good news anymore
@@chriswilliams2061 Funny enough, I can honestly relate. I don't know if I am permitted to drop it here, but her name is "Leah Marie Sandock". Was in the news a lot in 2018. You may look her up for more
@@dannywalters958 wow I know this little lady. Once attended a seminar she was also in attendance in Vienna,, Great speaker with a funny accent,, She's American though, I doubt she works with foreigners,,,
That map that shows proven oil reserves by country is a bit inaccurate. Venezuela has the worlds biggest oil reserves.
Yes, but Venezuela has sand oil, and it's expensive to extract, because the oil needs to be cleaned after extraction because of all the sand that comes up with it, Canada's oil has the same problem.
@@ampeerprime421 oh
The map wasn't even oil reserves. It was oil revenues. It's a major mistake in this video.
@@hemant111 Nope. They were oil reserves. It is shown as how many billion barrels of reserves are available.
@@ampeerprime421 then instead of not using oil, technology will be advanced to cleaning oil in the future. so companies can use this type as well.
What about Iraq? Iraq depends on oil and misses it more than its neighbors. Whether it was the Sultanate of Oman, the Emirates, Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, I was actually waiting for you to talk more about Iraq because of the government failure and the excessive dependence on oil
I think in this video they were mainly focusing on the GCC, which Iraq is not a part of
The government of Iraq barely exists. Its more of a hollow shell that was left after the US invasion, subsequent rise and fall of ISIS, and the ongoing insurgency. There's really not much of an economy to talk about.
it's too complex of an issue. I think Iraq will be like one of those sub-saharan countries with poverty, famine, and diseases all rampant by 2030. Hopefully not, but all indicators are pointing in that direction.
@@aviefern lol plz dont say that again make more search about the topics u want to talk about, im iraqi thats why am telling u that
It will get eaten by Turkey or Iran
in the 700s baghdad’s streets were paved with tar, and in the 1500s marco polo reported that in Baku Azerbaijan they were producing “hundreds of shiploads of oil in thousands of hand dug wells”, this puts into perspective how oil supply was never a problem until we started exploiting it within the last 100 years
No shit. When you increase the use of a product by a factor of ten million, it doesn't last as long.
No one knew oil could generate energy until coal industry monopoly. it's a lot of work from Chemist and Physicist
@@incognitotorpedo42 there's way too much oil for the world to run out anytime soon. To this day we still find new oil reserves.
I didn't know that marco polo was alive in 1500
Wait, Marco Polo was in Azerbaijan in the 1500s?? Yo
luckily for Qatar, Oil accounts for only 26% of exports, the main exports for Qatar is Natural Gas since it holds one of the largest proven reserves in the world, while also not having competitor to the Natural Gas like an electric vehicle for Oil.
Electric heat.....
Also being useful to the USA helps it alot
Qatar wil probably still feel the effects of it
What is that supposed to mean? Fossil gas is not used at all in my part of the world and it serve no purpose here. Same could be true for other places too if they just let go of their gas addiction.
@@ndl8722 oh definitely, much like most countries of the world actually. there are effects and there are handling, this won't be the first time Qatar has faced a major crisis, during the 2017 blocked which lasted until 2021, 90% of Qatar's food and medicine imports came from their neighboring countries which had cut their ties with Qatar, but through good planning Qatar had mitigated the problems to the point where they had started to export produce.
Even if gas prices goes up, oil won't go away and there will always be demand for oil based products such as:
-plastics; in utensils, electronics, equipment, furniture, packaging, toys
-polyester; threads in clothes, bags, shoes, fashion accessories, diapers, furniture cushions
-vinyl; pipes, furniture, building interior decorations, records
-petroleum jelly; in lotion, make up and beauty products
-polymers; coating for waterproofing in paper cups, milk and juice containers, teflon pans, paints, car tires
-cleaning products in laundry and mop detergents
Oil is pretty much in everyday modern life.
When we stop using oil as a fuel demand will be much lower so prices will be much lower. Oil producing countries will have to compete to find buyers for manufacturing purposes.
This!!
You are correct but isn't plastic and oil products becoming a big 'no no' in a more environment ally aware world..? In the West at least, I see little future for single use plastic products such diapers, bottles, packaging...?
@@pyellard3013 Not at all. The West goes through more plastic than anybody on the planet. Ever notice that the loudest voices against fossil fuels also own private jets and mega yachts? They are hypocrites of the highest order
@@bobbyboucher6661 I know the West is a major and plastic consumer.. But there is growing public concern.. As for the mega rich being a disproportionate number of the environmentally concerned...? I don't think so.. Most of the seriously environmentally concerned are not mega rich... And the country with the most billionaires is China and neithier the mega rich, Middle class, or poor Chinese are renowned for their environmental awareness... (Hopefully that is and will start to change) ..
Everyone talks about Dubai as being the model, but nobody talks about whether there is room for more than one Dubai in the region. They saw an opportunity and took it at the right time. I doubt any others will be able to emulate that strategy again. Abu Dhabi, though richer and more politically important than Dubai has been trying and failing at becoming Dubai 2.0.
Abu Dhabi never tried to become dubai ever. I am from AD and it was never apart of Abu Dhabi governments agenda at all. In the UAE, we see Dubai as the tourism capital, Sharjah as the cultural capital and Abu Dhabi as a political capital basically.
@@Ibaaz33 Sure, but Dubai also does tech and finance better, not just tourism. Every emirate as well as other middle-eastern country would kill for Dubai's economic diversification, that much cannot be denied. Dubai will have no trouble once oil runs out, all the others are still moderately, if not heavily dependent. And Sharjah may be seen as the cultural capital locally, but Dubai is far more significant in global culture. And once the oil runs out, we'll see where the political tide swings. Dubai has position itself strongly to lead the region in the future, simple economics cannot be beat.The current status quo is purely because of oil. In a way Dubai got lucky by having less of it and being forced to diversify, and then with having a relatively forward-thinking leader that was able to make it happen.
@@Ibaaz33 I’m from Saudi Arabia and I prefer Abu Dhabi over Dubai. Abu Dhabi though it’s very modern it still has Arabic and Islamic identity to it, it feels more authentic which’s very rare to see these days!
@@al3ndlib I believe Sharjah is that way not Abu Dhabi AT ALL
@@REDnBLACKnRED Not completely accurate. It's culturally more important to the west but to the East it's not. Abu Dhabi will be where easterners go for authentic culture. Other than that you're right.
Hmm well it depends. I watched a video (I can’t remember the specific name of the CZcamsr) he was basically talking about how the Middle East and East Africa region are blessed with renewable energy resources that have not been developed yet mainly because of oil money flowing into some of these countries. I don’t know if they can maintain their current lifestyle in the future but they are far from becoming poor.
Yes. I think there was a video that mentioned putting Solar Farms in the Sahara Desert.
If they can do that: It's possible to sell that energy to other places.
Kind of similar to how they're selling oil right now.
@@emuriddle9364 But how do you transport solar power? You can't just ship it in a truck like you can with oil and gas.
Bruh they're actually pretty close to becoming poor. Yes, they had resources for mega renewable energy, but still irrelevant to their spending habits. Renewable energy is useful for energy dependency against fossil fuels, but how can you export and make money from them? Almost pathetically little to none.
In short, renewable energy resources will guarantee these country from any energy shortages. ONLY THAT. You still can't export it and make money from exports
@@wendigo6667 The same way most electricity is transported, electrical lines and batteries
@@sdprz7893 So there's gonna be battery trucks and planes that transport solar power from the middle east to Russia? Power lines are too inefficient for those types of distances
Thank you again for such a great Video. Actually directly signed Up when the Sponsor came up
Used your link to Sign up for Morning Brew.. Thanks for the heads up.
"Known oil reserves" besides shale oil which 10X all the rest but are completely neglected other than the US.
What do you mean? What's shale oil?
@@geoffreycharles6330 The wording of the comment is pretty bad, but if I had to guess, OP's saying shale oil is much more plentiful around the world than traditional oil but only the US actually makes use of it on a large scale.
Shale oil is an unconventional oil that is harvested by a much more complex and polluting process. It revolutionized US' oil future as it gave the US much more energy independence.
@@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022 how is it harvested and where is it to be found?
@@geoffreycharles6330 a) using very expensive and advanced mining, b) in many places all over the world but very hard to get to (profitably)
@@geoffreycharles6330 Shale oil is mined with fracking, which is pumping massive amounts of water and dangerous chemicals into the ground to crack bedrock and surface oil. The shale oil exists in small cracks in bedrock deep in the ground. You're basically making those cracks larger and at the same time pumping the oil up
Would love to see an analysis of the prospects of clean energy production in the region; e.g. converting solar power into green Hydrogen, using the existing infrastructures for oil and gas. Especially in the light of Europe's strong bet on Hydrogen for at least some operations, as well as for airplanes/ships.
Edit: yes I know about the difficulties of transporting Hydrogen, but maybe the Ammonia-approach will still pay off in the future...
@@Salarat yea I don’t think hydrogen is going to be a promising option except for potentially domestic energy storage; a ton of solar in the desert might make sense to produce hydrogen to be used at night for example.
That being said, I don’t think there’s going to be tankers full of hydrogen because of how difficult it is to liquify and transport.
@@Salarat guys who use electric cars like D.
Forget this not about energy whole plastics in the world make by crude oil i really like most video narative explanation forget to describe oil just for energy use
Solar works well for the deserts you're not wasting land that could go to food/homes, ofc how do you export the energy generated?
Ammonia is much more suitable for transport and is being worked on by several groups to be easier to make just using elecricty from solar etc rather than using fossil fuels.
Hey OBF, your video quality like always is right at the Peak of whats possible. I love the Maps, Pictures and Clips you use to explain stuff. Keep it going and I know your channel will grow exponentially.
Sustainable alternative energy will soon make the demand for oil to dramaticaly reduce but not make it disappear though. However, demand and price would be so low that the region of Middle East would struggle to pay their imports for food and water.
turkey would probably conquer the whole middle east by then
The solution is easy.. Stop making Kids like rabbit..one child policy would help
@@pixydust4112 🤮. No thanks.. We got problem with ypg pkk Kurds. Not arab land
@@pixydust4112
Your country currency is too crap for that to happen
@@pixydust4112 ottoman empire 2 electric boogaloo?
Ooof, if the Philippines instantly found oil in the East-Philippine sea the whole country would be incorporated as a state of the US just like that
If China didn’t get there first
That is what I'm saying, that in any occurrence of Philippines finding a valuable resource in its vicinity. They would have to choose who to protect them. I mean even fish is getting poached from the natives
for real lol
I'm from the Philippines and I also agree with you.
China & US are fighting for us and other Southeast Asian countries bcoz of this issue aside geopolitics. We, Filipinos believe that the eastern philippine side had lots of undiscovered oil reserves, but cannot start it due to a lot of reasons:
1) Corruption among politicians & elites.
2) Eastern side is the doorway of Gigantic Typhoons.
@@chihaya2299 It's even worse that the Philippine government is filled with Chinese puppets. They'd easily sell that oil to the Chinese for extra money in their pockets.
You gloss over two main issues in here.
1)Use of oil won't decrease anytime soon. If it were, then the price wouldn't be increasing or stayed above $50-60 average in the past decade.
2) Only half of oil, at least in the case of US, is used in vehicles. There are still other areas that require it. EV use would likely encourage increased use in these other sectors since that's ordinarily how economies behave.
1.). 3:33 He didn’t gloss over this point, and in fact cited a recent IMF report that said peak oil use will be 2030.
2.) This isn’t a point to gloss over but an assumption that you’re making that the economy is just going to magically need just as much oil once EV adoption becomes mainstream because “that’s just how economies work”???
Btw 51% of oil in the us is refined into gasoline, but another 15% is refined into diesel.
@@danielbenner7583
1) he should have emphasized more on how IMF came to that conclusion, since it's a major part on this entire video.
2) You're right about me making an assumption, but it's informed by previous observations like in the airline sector where improved engine efficiency resulted in cheaper tickets that encouraged more flying. Consumption of other products such as plastics could go up since they would be cheaper. The economy demands constant consumption as it is how jobs are created. That gap will need to be filled by another sector or there will be a serious recession.
If the US is increasing it's domestic oil output, why is the Biden administration bending the knee to the Mullahs in Iran, and the tyrant in Venezuela to get more output from them.
@@AutodidactAnimotions Because you can't stop whining about gas prices.
@@phanomtaxskibididoodoo
Don't own a vehicle.. don't care about gas prices.
"what I hope to do in this book is take on the nonetheless ambitious task of sharing with you a remarkable story; one of an age in which great geniuses pushed the frontiers of knowledge to such an extent that their work shaped civilizations to this day.”
― Jim Al-Khalili
I don't think you're making the point you think you are.
?
wtf is this some inside joke im to outside to understand?
Without oil Arabs are equal to tribal people
Are they even look like human to u
@@amanverma7033 no
Peter Ziehan has done extensive research on this, you can read his books or take a look at some of his vids on this topic, in brief, don't count on renewables to save the world, they are geographic in nature, meaning some places are not a realistic option.
He's probably paid by oil lobby.
Trust me as a middle Eastern I tell you the Middle East will be a lot better off with out oil because we don’t have to worry about wars anymore
it will be like yemen
@@armin3057 Yemen has a lot of oil look it up that’s the reason there is war there
I'm guessing you're not from the gulf? the man is talking about the gulf in the video...
"The Last Hour will not come before wealth becomes abundant and overflowing, so much so that a man takes Zakat out of his property and cannot find anyone to accept it from him and till the land of Arabia reverts to meadows and rivers".
-Sahih Muslim
When I went to Dubai, it felt like a mirage: very beautiful, but very temporary, flash in the pan. boom town.
Their diversification has been very successful.
I'll keep watching to see how it progresses.
I don't know about the rest of the UAE.
Abu Dhabi is similar but countries like the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar make a lot of money because of their airlines and their strategic position to transit passengers through their hubs in Bahrain, Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi from Europe to South East Asia and Australia
This video is missing one big piece: oil was already in an oversupply in 2021. There wasn’t a shortage until after the oil producers slowed production down. Unfortunately for us, They aren’t increasing producing by much. And definitely not enough to get those ultra low oil prices seen during the pandemic
they can't even increase production if they want to, the oil rigs take 1-3 years to reopen.
my hot take: we'll get to see all these oil states collapse during our lifetimes.
these countries have a broken social contract: you don't pay taxes, you live in wealth and you don't even need to be competent at anything. In exchange you stay out of politics. The moment the handouts stop and the taxation begins, the societal contract falls apart.
I think a bunch of these states like Saudi-Arabia will devolve into chaos.
Exactly. I read a book a few years back that predicted 2028 for SAr. collapse...
@@jameskamotho7513 I would love the name of the book if you can remember.
I think Venezuela got a head-start on that.
And South Africa. When their Mining Industry downsized.
Which is why it's important for those countries to have a Plan B, for their economy.
Just in case they don't have oil (or gemstones) to sell anymore.
@@emuriddle9364 yeah South Africa is a mess, luckily we have a high population of graduates in the tech and engineering sector, the problem with that though is that there's way more qualified people (especially young) than there are jobs available so it's resulting in a brain drain where massive amounts of qualified engineers, software developers and IT specialists are leaving. So we have the tools to diversify but we're developing too slow to utilize the tools so the tools are packing their bags and leaving.
I hope not... but yeah, you might be right
very informative
Suadis main focus should be creating artificial rivers all along its coast - halfway between mountains and oceans so they can grow far more crops and from there try to turn vallies of mountains and then desert more green
Create rivers?
WTF
@@mtech1278 why not? just because it hasn't been done before doesn't mean it's impossible, alot of things haven't been done before but came to be reality.
maybe these artificial rivers could even look completely different from natural ones, like large pipelines with water that make lands arable, basically under earth rivers with the effect that water isn't lost due to evaporation in the heat.
or with over earth pipelines on the coast, over the mountains in KSA on it's west coast which then let's the water run down the mountains and forms a flowing river. obviously for that you would also need to form the river bed for the water to flow through.
there's alot more stuff that could be possible or not, who knows in 20, 50 or 100 years..
@@LegendNinja41 And where are you going to find the needed water in a desert like Saudi Arabia
@@mtech1278 pumped from the ocean, in that case, red sea, that water would obviously need to be desalinated/processed to some degree to make it usable.
@@LegendNinja41 we have already a lot of dams in western coast so i think we should invest its water to planting a lot of drought tolerant plants
So two questions:
1. Given the current acceleration of sea-level rise, how will Kuwait, UAE new investment survive?
2. Given the temperate rising to a point above the human ability to survive (meaning so hot AC will not work) in these areas by mid-century why build there if it will be worthless in a few decades?
I have lived in the area for a few years in the 00/10s. They are corrupt one-trick economic ponies with horrible geography for sustaining humans. At best they should be outposts for harvesting oil. Given we cannot stop the initial parts of global climate change wouldn't it be better for these countries to start preparing for mid-century evacuation?
i'm sure mbs and co will evac to their french chateaux's when the time comes, but that's not much of a strategy for most people.
Become the Netherlands
@@rishabhroxin5864 Now that made me laugh. Good one!
Realistically their economy will crash horribly and mass migration will happen. Feeding a population of 30 million on imports while exporting almost nothing will cause huge inflation.
On the other hand, oil demand wont disappear in the 2040s.
@@eno6712 let me help you.
1. There is an absolute limit (physics) that humans can live in. It's when AC no longer works. That is what I am talking about.
2. As for crops I am a farmer. The issue becomes one of water not heat. This is an area devoid of water.
3. Also the fertile crescent is in Iraq. Been there done that, totally different.
Seems to me like if oil runs out almost everything around us will fall
Morocco is a good example of diverse/green energy based economy and it made a name for itself as a climate leader while also divesifying his economy from tourism to automotive and aerospace industry and soon the arm industry , moreover his vast natural resource phosphorus will always increase in demand and it will place Morocco as a gatekeeper of the global food supply.dles.
“Look at a map of proven oil reserves” *shows revenue instead*
It's not revenue, it's proven oil reserves in no. of barrels. Generally oil is pumped and traded in barrels, so it's reserves are also shown in no. of barrels available.
While the video mentioned so much about 'Oil', it didn't say anything about the 'Natural Gas' which apparantly will be the bridge that connects the world as it now, with a world where the most of energy comes from sustainable sources. More and more countries will go for Gas as they increase their renewables and phase of 'coal' and 'oil'. The middle East also has a lot of Proven Gas fields.
Natural gas is far more expensive and hazardous to both store and transport than crude oil is. If you can't make use of natural gas in your region (i.e. for commercial power generation), it's cost-prohibitive to ship it in vast quantities, around the world.
Just like to say I just subscribed to morning brew because of this video
Subbed for this. 💜💜💜💜
Your videos are some of the best. Thanks for all the knowledge you share. May you and your channel prosper!
I'm born in the 80s, i feel sad that there are higher chances of the world facing nuclear annihilation than the world completely weaning itself of oil in my lifetime... Good luck to future generations though👍
I think we'll see great progress in our lifetime. We gotta do it right tho too.
@@user-vr3mr5eu7y We are seeing great progress right now... But it's slow and being over shadowed by the lightning fast speed of dangerous international power plays
@@esselsid3727 well along any point of the spectrum we could say it's great progress while we're at that point. I'm talking most the fossil fuels out of use and in a very efficient manner
@@user-vr3mr5eu7y issue is, its not great enough progress, even the most optamistic outlooks by nations and most optamistic goal at the moment habe us on track for irreversable damage
@@user-vr3mr5eu7yelectric cars are not sustainable. We don’t have the capacity in our electric grid.
Nicely explained.
Despite we have a good oil reserves in Oman. We only managed to produce at most 1 million barrels/day at consistent rate. Oman oil reservoirs are hard to extract and nearly impossible to get a good balanced crude especially from the south.
The past few decades of remarkable stability caused by a conflagration of unusual events that manifested global peace, trade, & growth... Is going away.
The real world is slowly approaching..
Scary times ahead.
This is only the start, that's for sure.
exactly extremist ideolgys are on the rise globally and democracy's are falling the future is not bright
Also, not in Middle East, but Algeria in Northern Africa is ultra dependent on gas… amount 90-95% of their export is gas. When the transition will advance forward, they will have a big problem.
(And sadly even more will emigrate to France to cause even more social problems and crime than what they do now to France)
The oil consumption will peak in 2030. It does not mean that oil wouldn't be relevant after 2030. Oil is here to stay.
In some ways: Yes.
But oil isn't an unlimited resource either.
“Wealth should be created by investing to create more wealth. Income is the fruit of wealth. If you do not do that, you will not have more income.”
Making it out at a young age is quite difficult. I started a side hustle at 17, saved up and made some good investments. l'm 28,live on my own and having a good life for myself. Big ups to you and everyone out there trying
@@cryptocasey1083 Sounds like plan, how do you put money to work?
@@kathyfrugalsen3047 Yes it sure is. I put in money in investments and get profits. That 's how I make more money without working. This does not sound new to you right ?
@@cryptocasey1083 Thanks for replying me, I've heard so many people talk about investment but none had said how to do it right.
Am hoping on you can explain more on how you make extra income from investments
You should have gone more in detail on iraq and iran since they have massive reserves together
Iran's economy is self sufficient it has a thousand sanctions on it but it still works well and Iraq is very good at farming and can be a agricultural economy
Those economies are not as Oil dependant tho
@@pixydust4112 iraqs agriculture? I thought only the northern partwhas fetrtile lands
Why does nobody mention that we still use oil for everything household, plastic, rubber, tar exc
Aviation fuel…you’re not going to see electric planes soon😂
we have so much oil, that we will have energy crisis this winter. Makes sense.
🤣🤣🤣
Opinion | Most economists are overlooking the growth factors of developing economies non western China, India, Middle East and many other countries (over %50 of the world’s population) are growing at an average of %5 turning into a middle class consumer economies thus increasing demand for oil based products & uses, (ICE cars, plastics,etc and millions of newly developed plastic based products) therefore the current demand & supply growth forecast is inaccurate not to mention the current world consumption is almost 100 million BPD, with approximately 1.4 billion cars in use worldwide and growing
China is gradually using other options, but India is still in huge need of oil
@@salvadorhenriquez4091 yeah i wouldn't have included China like him, alot of china is already kinda developed. But there is also most of Africa, Indonesia, Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam and so many other places that are still behind.
I am not sure if this is correct
if OIL is cheaper people will use MORE OIL
A Species advancement is characterized by how much energy they use.
Every nation will use more energy if it’s cheap. OIL price will only go down if demand shrinks because of Carbon Tax.
Depends on what you compare with. If Oil price raises from $40 to $100, und you decrease it to $60, you still use less oil than with $40, although the price has dropped.
And energy use is in no means oil use. There is almost no intention to use less energy, there is only an intention to use less fossile energy like oil, gas, coal.
@@holger_p Don’t you think with cheaper oil renewables become relatively expensive thus promoting more oil consumption and with that China and south east Asian nations will take take advantage to produce more cheap products
@Ka GU time will tell
Without watching the video already, the Middle East knows that their oil is finite. That's why they invest in infrastructure (like skyscrapers, mega malls, ...), to become a trade center, tourism, ... less dependent on oil.
It's hard to become a center of tourism when your society is one of the worst places in the world. Building things doesn't make the economy that much stronger if no one gonna use it or is only being built and paid for by the government. Building skyscrapers no one will use or will be half empty isn't gonna benfit the economy that much and certainly not in the long term. Half the time as well these building are just built as a pissing contest for these countries.
The videos I've seen describing the populated centers of Dubai describe something that has marginal appeal. No sidewalks. No parks. No connectivity, except via personal vehicle or taxi. Beach resort tourism (primarily from Europe) is antithetical to their conservative version of Islam. The upside and scope of diversification will be limited. Vegas-style amenities, minus the public semi-debauchery, will always have limited appeal.
@@kordellswoffer1520 if the society isnt like yours , that doesnt mean its bad
i hate Saudi gov , but what i hate more is the kind of mindset you have
@@AlwafiCharki muddle eastern society is bad and objectively worse than mine own. Which is the anglo west. My society is the best in the world and anything that isn't it is garbage. There are close attempts but all are inferior and I won't pretend like all society are great and equal.
@@kordellswoffer1520 Cool , Nazis isnt ?
could you link your sources, i'd like to read more about this
Hopefully they all figure it out quickly
uae already did
I wonder why you did not mention how many times Dubai had to be bailed out by oil-rich Abu Dhabi regardless of its "diversification" (aka overreliance on posh trustfund expats and exploitation of slave labor)
Thank you! Dubai is such a charade, and people fall for it.
Good video still I’m not convinced by the oil “low demand”, fossil fuels are not used only by end consumers but by all kinds of industry and electricity generation.
The alternative uses are subsidized by the demand for fuel, since they are made from what is effectively waste products. With fuel prices falling from lower demand, heavier oils, such as those used in lubricants and plastic production will need to rise in price, as oil companies will still need to cover the same costs despite lower desire for fuel oils. This means alternates for these oils, and the products made from them, will become more price competitive.
(solar panels in deserts provide shade and shelter to crop and animals)
You mean to say that Dubai's police department will have to give back all those Ferraris?
I'm waiting for the reaction of EV supporters when we run out of Lithium. 🤣
Public transport, Bicycles, CARFREE INFRASTRUCTURE is the only way forward. Nothing with a 1.5Ton metal is beneficial for the environment.
There's really no reason to believe the IMFs peak oil diagnosis first of all. All of such predictions have been bunk.
Secondly, what exactly is going to replace oil? I have to believe that the IMF was considering Natural Gas as a separate commodity because there's absolutely no way the world is moving away from oil in ten years without gas (and coal) playing a major part.
Unless there's a massive worldwide Nuclear initiative that I have not noticed. Renewables certainly would not come to replacing even a twentieth of what oil produces and without any of its consistency.
Lastly, when oil *does* decline, it will be gradual, not sudden. Prices will fall slowly as it is replaced in mostly first world countries first.
The situation for these countries is no way near as dire as you make it out to be. I get it, these are all shitty regimes many would rather see have less power but cope isn't the answer
Hydrogen, Sugar and electronic vehicle market.
Secondly yes oil will decrease gradually because of OIC but I think US, Canada and Venejuela are out of it, not sure for Venejuela but OIC will break because of person benefits of GDP when the cake share of oil shrink and because of war Russia economy is ruined and Russia will be Focus on China and India although India will not be a viable option but giving discount they will lure India further and Europe started to focus on America and Canada then it's hard game for middle east. Gas is next Gold for coming future than oil.
@@GG-ur4km I can't see natural gas being a major fuel for the world's economies. Gas is too hazardous and too expensive to store and transport across the world in quantities, near the scale of oil. If natural gas can't be put to use in the region where it's extracted (i.e. for commercial power generation), then it becomes cost-prohibitive to ship in vast quantities, globally.
Oil's importance is far beyond just the need for fuel though. Half of every barrel of oil is used to make plastics and other products that we can only obtain through oil. So even if the whole planet transition to electric cars we still would need a lot of oil.
In 2008, Joel Malek, a DNA-sequencing specialist from Boston, Massachusetts, packed his bags and left one east coast for another, 6,500 miles away in Qatar. At the time, the Arab state was recruiting skilled scientists and academics to teach and conduct research in its 14-square-kilometre 'Education City', which was under construction on the outskirts of Doha. Malek was given generous funding to set up a genomics research lab for Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar (WCM-Q), the first US medical school to open a campus in the country, in 2001.
Eight months after settling on the peninsula's shores, Malek received funding and began building his research team almost from scratch.
Diversification has all ready happened (sometimes to a respectful degree) and it will keep so the next years.
For example, Kuwait has an investment fund worth about $750B (with investments from all over the world), so have other Middle East countries, more or less.
That, turism and other business facilities that they have (fishing, trading, etc.) are enough to help them diversify, if you want my opinion.
Sure, it won't be easy (for the people and the countries) to completely diversify their economy, but so far they are doing good.
I think you have been giving too much credit to the attempts to diversify coming out of the ME. I worked a year in Kuwait. I love all people, but some cultures are not good/healthy for people - and the ME master/servant culture is going to make the lives of all the people in the region much harder in the coming years. There is no way they come close to making a stable transition. I sadly even see the chance of religious fundamentalist numbers gaining power in many places. If you are in the ME, I suggest you get out and start a good life elsewhere unless you are over 60 or so.
The middel east can incraise production to make the current oil boom in the US uneconomical and to combat the renewebels as well. Let's hope we get rid of this economical lubricant and replace it with a stable source that doesn't fluctuate like oil.
Then the usa can put tariffs on oil imports.
@@thesimpleanswer2264 this is what they fear and that’s why they are now turning to China to send a warning to the US, the US doesn’t need their oil but their say in energy markets is crucial to their geopolitical dominance.
Except when the 08 crises happened Abu Dhabi’s oil money bailed Dubai out. It’s a mirage, also still reliant on oil. Several bailouts have happened since 08.
i wonder if we get to live to see a world oil free. that would be amazing not just for the environment but also geopolitical wise
Your local windmill takes more oil to produce and keep running than an entire city's oil demands. And statistically, for the whole world to completely neutralise the oil consumption even 100 yrs not enough
Don't worry. It's happening. It's just too slow of progress and adoptation, though. Fusion Technology is being developed and researched. Algae produce alternative energy while producing oxygen. Methane that flies Elon Musk's rockets. Lithium Cars are competing and becoming more available in the market. So the technology sector of the West is actually diversifying in the coming decade or so.
Well if every engine becomes electric and we manage to produce clean energy between renewable sources and nuclear we can get rid of oil and coal . Will it happen soon ? Probably not but we have to otherwise you would see nations going into war for a bit of oil or even getting a ww3 for that , something similar to what happened in fallout
We've been able to run trains without oil.
So, it's possible.
Most military equipment still needs oil though.
Honestly this is one of the best Channels on CZcams. Quality, research and the editing is on point. I just found your channel couple days ago and I already spent a lot of hours watching your videos. Keep up the good work👍
Saudi Arabia will do just fine in the next few decades.
The world will continue consuming oil for decades to come. I do agree that the price will be much lower in the upcoming years and decades but Saudi makes money even at $10 per barrel.
They have about 1 trillion in cash reserves (foreign exchange reserves and PIF)
They have Mekkah and Medina, home of Islam and the Arabic language. Remember that soon there will be over 2 billion muslims in the world. They are all required to visit Mekkah at least once in their life time. I expect Saudi to become the most visited country in the world in the next 10 to 20 years. It's not just tourism but also education, Islamic banking and anything else related to Islam.
Also Saudi has other resources which have seen no investments in the past as oil was enough to live off well; like plenty of gas, nickel, gold, aluminum etc
And finally, Saudi Arabia has lots of empty land and over 350 days of insane sunshine (Solar; green hydrogen). Saudi has the money to manufacture and invest in large scale solar infrastructure unlike other countries in Sahara.
Lol
US Oil companies have said that they will not increase oil production. You can check Climate Towns video on this.
Oil is all they have for a true economy. If it was not for oil, they would not have much of anything.
man city and psg really sweating rn
The US also has a lot of oil if we’re willing to turn on the tap.
The average Saudi Arabians are lazy as hell from living off the oil subsidies for decades and making them work for a living would be a problem
@pm they will be nomads again
@@archer_wsk1408 The population has become far too big for that lifestyle to be feasible.
fracking is polluting
The US is already the largest producer of oil.
Why did you use a chart showcasing oil revenues when talking about the reserves?
I think there is just two important parts to any economy and that is the local economy and the global economy, all these oil rich nations are rich off of having a valuable resource on the global economy but that resource is limited and going to run out somewhere in the next 10 to 30 years.
The problem with the global economy is what you want is both strong imports and strong exports with a net zero difference between them, once oil is gone what is left to export? Most of the countries have been coasting off of oil money and not developing other industries properly at all. UAE definitely has done the best job out of them but even it is behind where it needs to be for the end of oil.
The benefit of the local economy is that it is almost self-funding, you take money out of the local economy to fund infrastructure projects for the local economy with the payments being made to companies working within the local economy. There is a limit to how far you can do this and the infrastructure projects can be the main risk, as if they do not deliver the expected results then money can most definitely be lost. When you have a strong local economy, you are better placed to participate in the global economy and to support local businesses that operate on the global economy.
Which leads into the real issue of the middle east, it's dependency on imports, the Middle east is dependent on imports which are funded by oil and these imports include food which reaches as high as ~$35 Billion annually (a price that is only going to increase). Basically most of the middle east is heading straight into an ice berg of insufficient food and insufficient fresh water, the only outcome of this can be increasing deficit until bankruptcy and potentially failed state. Now the middle east does have a lot of desalination going on, which may take care of the fresh water, but that is both an expensive (relatively speaking) solution and not enough to take care of the larger issue, food. The Middle east really needs to start working on producing more sustainable food production at national sized scales.
“The riches will leave “ agreed
Believe me, this world will NOT be leaving fossil fuels soon. This EV trend is just a smoke screen.
My recent pastime is to post skeptical expressions of Jamal Kashoggi on every NEOM ad that invades my timeline
Thanks for this video. Looking at my country, Nigeria :)
Honestly as a UAE Resident, I'm lucky to live in a thriving Middle Eastern country without the need of oil.
Pakistani immigrant to the UAE lol don't they treat you like shit?
🤡
Indeed. Real estate, wholesale trade and construction collectively contribute more to the UAE's economy than oil. Manufacturing, logistics and finance are also vital to the economy. The UAE’s economy is diversified and the non-oil sector makes up about 82.8% of the economy, which is worth $500 billion by GDP, and $660 billion by PPP. The economic success of an Arab and Muslim country tends to bother the ignorant who claim that the Emirates’ economy will collapse when the oil reserves run out. The UAE is prepared for that. The other GCC countries not so much...
@@AnonymousReader-er4eg they have been bailed out by abu dhabi plenty of times
@@armin3057 Dubai's debt as a % of its GDP is still lower than the USA's, Japan's, Italy's, etc.
As a Kuwaiti , I do I agree that the previous government and it’s 2035 new Kuwait plan is terrible, and everybody here knows it, but thankfully reform is closer than ever, we have a new emir and prime Minister ( Who is actually willing to listen to the Parliament )
+ keep in mind, our government has seven welfare funds ( we only know how much is in two of them ) and those two alone add up to 750 billion US dollars so we aren’t running out of money anytime soon
The new emir of Kuwait is the best and the Kuwaiti ruling system looks like a democracy more than an absolute monarchy. Kuwait will be doing good, uae is already doing good. Saudi and Bahrain are not good to be honest
I only have surface level knowledge of the world economy, but I can see how easy it is to devaluate a country's currency with the snap of a finger.
Welfare will only make folks lazy.
@@thequraininstitute6618 What does being new got to do with this?
@@JK-gu3tl no , simply no , I’m so grateful for the welfare system we have in Kuwait, free healthcare, water, electricity, housing, etc those are human rights, not an easy way to make money . Welfare has taken thousands out of poverty , and a group of oligarchs have been trying to destroy it for the last 30 years . Doing what you love without the fear of becoming homeless is relieving .
Well, just for ur limited knowledge Saudi Arabia has about 34 trillion dollars in natural resources.
0:56 isn't that a graphic of world oil revenue as the title says? I don't think that is the same thing as oil reserves. I suppose it's close perhaps
Oman will be just fine even without oil, we are used to a modest life since eons past :) Even currently not many are considered rich except for a small percentage, still agriculture and fishing will never go away. Oil is now on the path of being phased away by other things as they planned for it to be. Science is however of utmost importance.
@pm I'm sure this is already in the works, the recent president of Tanzania came to Oman for a visit.
@@Hunikengt Wasn't Zanzibar (now part of Tanzania) ruled by an Omani dynasty once?
@@scythal in the past yes.
amazing
Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Yemen each have massive onshore and offshore wind potential. They should invest into wind energy to diversify their energy sources. Firstly, the fighting in Yemen would seriously need to stop first for anything to start moving forward.
If we want to stop the fighting in Yemen we need to stop Iran. The world is fucked up bro 🤷🏻♂️
Where will they export the engery... Surely Europe and North America can produce their own wind and wave engery.. Solar engery would be better from North Africa (for Europe) and Mexico (for the States if it can't produce enough)?
and solar energy too.
@@1.Doubleyou who started the fighting?
Iran wasn't the one & You better stop the genocide of Yemeni people,
Stop spreading nonsense,
Muslims must be united under the flag of Islam, unfortunately some Muslim countries are shaking hands with Zionists, and invite U.S soldiers to west Asia so they can do their dirty work more easily,
Just look at Iran's history in the past 4 decades,
Iran has always been helping Muslims no matter what,
Let's look at Bosnia, when Serbs were genociding Bosnian Muslims Iran was the one who sent troops & humanitarian helps to stop this aggression against Muslims while other Muslim countries were watching..
This was one example there are many more situations which Iran helped Muslims,
well if you want to stop the fighting in yemen then you should give up cause thats not going to happen
In light of the recent Abraham accords. Maybe Saudi Arabia, Israel, UAE, Jordan, Egypt could do a few things. More widespread desalination and wastewater reclamation,... Coupled with artificial metalonodes in places like the Red Sea, Mediterranean and Indian Ocean to harvest rare earth and other valuable metals. It would be comparable to creating artificial pearls in masse, and would simultaneously help with the brine problem. The increase in farming would help diversify the economies of the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea and minimize disruption from potential Ethiopean dam construction and Israel/Gaza Canal construction (which would also generate more stable long term trade).
Very good that all me gustan todos los vídeos muchas gracias che
0:55 the video shows the world's "proven oil reserves in 2018"
Bro that's a map of oil REVENUES, not reserves.
Saudi here, I’ve seen so many of these the videos. I feel that more emphasis should be allocated, to what our government is doing in terms of initiatives to diversify our income streams tourism, engineering, scholarships and investments in infrastructure, education and health.
While I agree that depending on one source of income is risky, I think it’s much more vital to recognise that we as a country realise this and have spent the better part of a decade restructuring and diversifying our economy and consumer awareness with significant success
As a Saudi certainly you know about development in Gulf more than us and I don’t know whether it’s true or not but I feel Saudi is investing more on infrastructure than that of Human Resource and IMO this might be a bottle neck in industrialisation of gulf nation
Historically speaking most developed economies today invested heavily in their people and those well educated well skilled people made those nation world class be it 🇰🇷 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇨🇳
@@Pravar it is definitely true about investment in infrastructure. Regarding your comments about investment in Human Resources. Our college educated people are 70-80 % of the workforce. And is continuing upwards. As you may already know our higher education and health system are entirely free to those who need it.
@@rashedalghamdi1658 I am reading information about neom and almost all top architect there are western expatriates IMO localities should be entrusted for nation building
@@Pravar I completely agree with your statement. However, there is currently and experience gap, Saudis who are educated will soon posses the necessary experience to take hold of such project. (They are currently entry to mid level in the job market.
if electric cars take off fast, it will be way too slow for you to adapt....saudis are lazy, uneducated and can ever reach western standards...yet they are living a life style which is kept alive by cheap labor and more importantly western expats
US has a huge reserve but it is much harder to harvest than in the middle east. But we are beginning to deverse our oil and energy resources. Some will still depend on oil gas but others will depend on other resources
we still have lots of innovation and a diverse economy
Oil is used for or in 1000’s of products. There is no getting away with stopping all use of it. Not even close.
Not sure why you include Egypt in the equation as it neither an Oil based economy nor is considered in the Middle East these days (Politically speaking of course). I think that instead of Oil, you should make a video about why the Middle East will not survive without water with how climate change is going.
true
It’s Middle Eastern/North African
His knowledge of the region is quite shallow, if he had even a basic understanding of regional politics he would never recommend the UAE as the alternative to this existential long-term energy crisis.
And yes, the water wars and how the GCC + Egypt + Jordan are buying up water reserves in Africa to sustain their agriculture is quite telling and even more dreadfully existential than this energy debacle; though I pray for anyone who actually seeks an education from this channel.
Excellent presentation, and very efficient.
I thought Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest oil producer.
Is that incorrect?
Used to be 2 years ago now it’s the United States
But keep in mind saudi population is 30 million
America population is 350 million I think
Also it’s cheaper to dig sand than dig rocks to find oil
@@Ahmed-Bin-Koshari
Thanks for the clarification.
Great information!
@@MichaelLloydMobile but also saudi arabia is the biggest oil exporter. the US still consumes more than it produces
00:55 Says oil reserves, shows oil revenues map.
The map didn´t mention Venezulea at all, they have lots of oil compared to Arabia
I think Venezuela has bigger problems lol (also more varying resources)
aramco is the 2nd most valuable company in the world after Apple, and the most valuable oil company
Unless the Middle East is willing to go 'full Singapore or Switzerland' and become a new haven for the wealthy seeking tax adantaged jurisdictions, the prospects for the region look bleak. That would likely entail giving up on some Islamic principles for the sake of material gain. Barring some kind of radical shift regarding their acceptance of non-Muslim values the population will likely crash and the remaining people will just return to the desert from whence they came. In a hundred years you might travel through the Middle East and just find a bunch of Bedouins in caravans traveling among the rusting ruins of oil derricks and abandoned skyscrapers.
Randy Jones, just read the history of middle east for last six thousand years and than do this meaning less blabbering. Middle East will do fine with or without oil.
a god video idea could be "do we have enough natural resources to give a electric car to everyone"
This is a good channel certainly. It is not really known how much more oil & gas can be extracted. There are always many ways, and bad /risky methods also.