The rise of China and the inevitable decline of America
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- čas přidán 5. 09. 2011
- Emeritus Professor Paul Dibb gives this lecture entitled 'Two geopolitical fallacies: the rise and rise of China and the inevitable decline of America' at The Australian National University on 5 September 2011.
The public debate in Australia about the rise of China and the inevitable decline of America has become increasingly polarised. In one view, there are those who believe that China's rise and rise is inevitable and that it will come to dominate Asia. In this scenario, America has to accept its inevitable decline and accommodate China. At the other extreme, there are those who believe China will become an aggressive and expansionist power and the US and its allies (including Australia) must prepare to counter it with military force, if necessary.
This lecture examines the reasons for the rise and fall of great powers historically; it then looks at the strengths and weaknesses of both China and the US and how they might compete for influence in Asia. It concludes by canvassing competing theories for the future strategic order in Asia -- including the balance of power, a concert of powers, and a cooperative regional strategic organisation.
Paul Dibb is Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at The Australian National University. His previous positions include: Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Deputy Secretary of the Department of Defence, Director of the Defence Intelligence Organisation, and Head of the National Assessments Staff (National Intelligence Committee).
He is the author of five books and four reports to government, as well as more than 120 academic articles and monographs about the global strategic outlook, the security of the Asia-Pacific region, the US alliance, and Australia's defence policy. He wrote the 1986 Review of Australia's Defence Capabilities (the Dibb Report) and was the primary author of the 1987 Defence White Paper. His book The Soviet Union: The Incomplete Superpower was published in 1986 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
someone had predicted China's reemerge long time ago, French Empire Napoleon
Prof. Dibb in my opinion underestimate China and overestimate USA but I agree completely with his assessment of Kissinger and his book. Overall good lecture.
To understand China you need to look at what it does in the world. Paul is right. China, generally, does not start wars. It generally keeps to itself unless conflagration creeps close to its borders. China does not support terrorism like Iran. China does not have dreams of world domination. China is far more concerned with domestic security because what matters to the political hierarchy is personal survival and prosperity. China is about making money and everything it does revolves around that.
it feels like he's underplaying china's armed forces and espionage capabilities. it's also surprising how he left out china's trade relations with the african continent as a whole which would have major implications on world economics in the future
It's quite understandable this topic would be discussed by the highest level of education at Australia, especially given the high level of raw industrial material importation from Australia by the Chinese. As such, a re-examination of the relationship between China and Australia should be explored. While Prof Dibb is making a brilliant argument, he is making this a choice of alliance between US and China, as if Australia has to choose one and not another. That's a bit short sighted.
i think you under estimate china capablities
"An avoidance of naval incidence at sea agreement?" come on, get serious... I remember being bullied and beaten by the ol' man until I was big enough to defend myself, that's when he became 'non-violent'... and this stinks of the same smell... especially after what the Anglos did to the Chinese in the 1800's ... that's a wee tad hypocritical isn't it?...
Comparing China to Facist Japan and Germany as his conclusion ?! The biggest danger is the misunderstanding of Chinese thinking and philosophy.
Chinese philosophy is one of "balance of Yin and Yang" and not "Yin against Yang". Look at Chinese Han dynasties - the biggest dynasties coming out of China were the Mongolian Yuan and Manchurian Qing.
We shall see how the actual events would be played out. Too bad he may not be around to be convinced only by the things staring at him.
China is currently helping other regions with the financial dilemmas the United States should had done to defeat adversaries instead of wars that created enemies that benefit few Americans.
FILIPINOS DOES FEAR CHINA...WE WILL TRY AND SEE.
Very Australian. Out of it, kinda.
china has largest population and want biggest project to built around world
economists anyone?
@Youmeandthatguy53 Our givt spends too much money and our economy collapsed. What else is there to it?
Very good. I liked him. I'm from America and I can say he is pretty much right on the money. Enjoyed, thanks.
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these views forget about India, Europe, Latin america. If they consider China a rising superpower and the usa the superpower, what about the other blocks, insignificant? we'll see how insignificant they are if there is a real confrontation. Would any western country go to war with China alone?? Unlikely. Also it's another historical false that china was ahead of the west in terms of technology. the only period when it was clearly superior was during the middle age for a period of about 300 years
WW3 is a must to earn respect from the west!