Understanding the war in Ukraine (4) - World
Vložit
- čas přidán 20. 06. 2024
- STG Director Prof Alexander Stubb sheds light on the war in Ukraine in a series of four video lectures.
Each lecture focuses on a different angle regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
After a general introduction in the first lecture, and following episodes on Finland and Europe, the fourth episode focuses on the world.
More on bit.ly/3lNanrs
This episode was recorded on 24 March 2022.
#Ukraine #Ukrainewar #Russia #geopolitics
Nämä pätkät on olleet tosi hyviä,kiitos Alex👍🇫🇮
Mr Stubb, you should be invited to the Italian TV every day...we are really bad at clarity and pragmatic thinking.
Gradually becoming a fan of this little series of information. Well done guy 👏🏾Thanks for spending the time to create this series in real time 🙏🏾
Simply Brilliant ~ a major thinker in geopolitics ~ thank you
4:57 - 5:14
5:14 - 5:45
5:14 - 6:57
REAL LIFE 💯
This guy is one of the best at what he does, by far 💯
Thank you for spending the time to create this content 🙏🏾 This series is such a relaxed clear perspective (this guy is clearly intentionally minimizing potentially excessive attempts to focus on drawing conjectures/speculations/etc which is actually a refreshing take in a way, he keeps it even keeled) that isn’t reacting to every obvious feint thrown, but just collecting data on that feint thrown and using that information to spur collective growth
Great videos. Love them all. Thank you from the European citizen in Slovenia.
Thank you for sharing your reflections and perspectives about this complicated times and our common future.
He isn't saying anything. Totally unserious.
Finland dare join NATO at this moment, because Russia cannot handle NATO, the US European base. Keep your fingers crossed. Europeans love confrontation.
@@tomchen513 Finland has been a member of nato since 1990
Thank You for an excellent series…
Thank you - brilliant lectures
I am curious how many countries can say that a Ph.D. was a prime minister/president...
Professor; I stumbled into this eloquent presentation of a rendition of history that somehow shed light on the route of darkness traversed by many in trying to understand the complexities surrounding the horrendous acts of violence of Putins army and the implications upon the future course of the Europe.
"horrendous acts of violence of Putins army" and the choir boys from Ukraine and NATO? You may also want to look up the word "history"
@@willhall4037 1. He obviously prefers using a thesaurus over a dictionary 😄
2. Try to avoid making "What about" arguments....they are like the fast food of a debate, just garbage. People will take you more seriously if you remain on topic.
@@CollectiveWesterner Why would I give a f about that? My comments are true, and they are out there. Get real.
A humble PhD... well he speaks far better than I do and I am an anglophone. Frigging clear... Tele prompter? Or just a sharp mind? Dang... great speaker. 👍
He is natural the most international politic we ever had. Flow is natural but of course he is using notes.
He has bullet points, but no manuscript, so you can count on him having given similar lectures a lot to students, I think. Maybe not the exact same, but on the topics
Thank you.
Well thought out and knowledgeable analyses of this and with a first hand understanding from the perspective of your country 🇫🇮 Finland.
Great series!
Like the length of the format and concentrating on a few main points without losing the complexity of the situation. Good job.
Spot on!
I really enjoy your videos.
Thank you.
Watched your series and found it very insightful. I think the main issue with our modern world is that the power is completely lopsided towards the 5 permanent security council members of the UN. The US, China, Russia, France, and the UK. It's as if the UN was designed with the interest of only these countries in mind. The UN's sluggishness and inability to act on Russia's invasion on Ukraine shows it for the lame duck it is. The recent removal of Russia from the Human rights council is not enough. The UN must condemn the Russia invasion, remove Russia from it's permanent security council seat, and start action that leads to the dePutinization of Russia or be abolished.
If Putin's problem is that he yearns for a time when the USSR was a global power.. and he wants his legacy to be putting Russia back on the map..... demoting his country to 3rd world status is not going to help. The UN was constituted when WWII was over.. Russia had survived and more than pulled its weight, China was dominant over Asia (Japan was the enemy), the UK still seriously represented NZ Australia Canada, France was the only European country on the "right "side.. Portugal Spain and Eastern European countries were either Facist, or leaning that way.. or Germany/ German influenced..
At the time, the security council made sense.. but it should have been reformed years ago..
They meant well.. and the idea was to make sure that all were allied in such ways that no one block could dominate, no ideology supersede another, and that all were allied.. Time to change..yes, because the world has changed.. but not sure how it can be done.
u wish
You might want to take a look at political and organizational theory.
I don't know how much viewers of this video know about various forms of government, but it should make sense that an effective government should represent various centers of power in your society. One obvious center of power should be the raw numbers of your population, since liberal democracies are supposed to be about self-government and do the bidding or be at least responsive to the wishes of a majority of the people. But, there are other centers of power, too and one is that some members are more powerful and for various reasons more capable than the others. These movers and shakers of the population should also have a special say because they have the ability to affect the welfare of the entire population more than average members, and this is the UN Security Council. When the UN was setup, the 5 permanent members were recognized as being not only nuclear powers but the world's leading members at the time. It was important that any discussions of extreme importance had to include all 5 members to avoid another World War, no matter what kind of behavior by whomever was discussed. It's precisely because a country like Russia could be guilty of bad behavior that it MUST be on the Security Council, to attempt to forestall situations like Ukraine, but of course cannot perfectly prevent such things from happening.
What are the chances of successful "deputification" and nation-building in world's largest country and nuclear power?
There is no "as if" about it, it was designed that way, though Churchill probably wanted both France and Russia out of the picture. The security council was designed to make dominance of the great powers permanent. The Triple Hegemony of US, USSR and PRC probably wasn't foreseen but has become problematic. The Russian-Chinese invasion of S. Korea was stopped, nominally by the UN, but the UN couldn't stop the US war in Vietnam. The veto on the Security Council is very like the Liberum Veto that weakened and eventually destroyed the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Something needs to be done, but the present system was designed not to change.
Thank you. Your knowledge is most informative. I have always seen Finland a strong independent progressive nation and model for the world. Please join NATO. You failed to mention a very very important point: Finland’s actual contribution to NATO militarily but far more important your logical and rational contribution to the discussions and decisions of NATO. Thank you. The world will be a much safer place when Finland joins NATO
It doesn’t seem like any new countries will be added to NATO any time soon.
@@btyz11 Completely blind to news or what? Basically the whole parlament of Finland has said that they are for joining NATO, and that they will apply in may. Sweden will most likely join aswell, unless they want to be the last nation in the west to face russia alone. (Always been pro nato, but it is quite amazing how threatening Finland could unite all finns instantly.) + The US and the UK promised protection to Sweden during their appliance periode.
@@oshixxxx I hope NATO does add Finland and Sweden soon.
@@oshixxxx I want to believe that Finland will soon be joined to NATO but let’s see what happens.
@@btyz11 we will do it, but we assume the concequences. But we are read to get these.
Concise. Clear.
Thanks.
Thanks for this excellent series. I am interested in learning more about the current and future roles of so-called "neutral" countries in the emerging new reality of our multi-polar geopolitical world, especially India. With its massive population, nuclear weapons, and contradictory relationships with Russia, China, Europe, and the United States it appears that India has a significant role to play in the world. However, its regional preoccupation with Hindu nationalistic chauvinism is self-limiting in terms of international relations and non-imperialistic uses of hard and soft power. Hard power, for example, through its naval control of shipping between the Middle East and East Asia. And soft power, for example, through its production of vaccines and other pharmaceuticals. Just as you have suggested that we all learn more about the Chinese way of thinking, it seems important to understand the Indian way of thinking, especially since India plays a major role in either enabling or opposing China's emergence as a global super power.
Hindus are being attacked by Islamists everyday....it isn't chauvinism it is basic survival
Great videos!
Mr Stubb your are brilliant
One of the most interesting parts of this war is that it is (possibly the first example of) two critical parts of the global economy in a state of full scale war, with one nearing a total war state. It will be interesting to see the fallout this war will cause. I can see that many countries which suffer from the lack of trade with Ukraine and Russia will look for alternatives and many countries will start to look much harder at becoming as self-sufficient as possible to protect against future disruptions. Essentially this will have the effect of reverting the global economy towards the pre-WWI type of mercantalism, with limited international trade.
Maybe it will revert for essential items, but price will certainly be the dictating factor for everything else. People need to maximize the use of their limited resources. Unfortunately, this can mean trading with entities whom one does not view as entirely favorable.
That's a possibility that needs discussion. It might instead lead to regionalization of the global system, something alluded to here. For Example there are only three independent countries in North America; they are politically compatible and are almost fully integrated economically. The Great Lakes between the US and Canada are the largest body of fresh water on the planet and the agricultural area of the US and Canada is enormous. There are concerns about both because of Climate change, of course. regional assemblages like this could develop or be forced into existence. OTOH Russia may be too large to be manageable and may break up.
Prof. Stubb makes difficult notions more understandable to a general audience. I am aware of there being considerably more under the hood than what is generally perceived. Professionals in the field need to stay on top of their game, and immersed in the subject or else lose focus and relevance. I wrote a paper for my professor of International Relations at the Maxwell School several decades ago. It got an A+ and copious notes and a personal discussion. I only mention this because for decades I have been engaged in international education, not dealing in international relations and politics. I was moving after retirement a few years ago and found a copy of my paper, and tried to read it. It was full of jargon that I hadn't used for decades and the concepts were no longer clear. Of course it was researched and written before the end of the Cold War and the USSR, so the content would be outdated even though it dealt with a concept mentioned here, multipolarity and the rise [or reemergence] of important regional powers. I just wish that these videos were longer and more detailed.
woooow am am amazed kudos Suomi
I have been enjoying each of your episodes. I think you are an incredible thinker and speaker. Hopefully you will continue making these episodes long after the Ukraine war is over.
This guy is nothing but the next Jen Stoltenberg. I shudder for the future of Europe if he does indeed succeed the likes of NATO Fascists Jen Stoltenberg or Ursula von der Leyen
Great videos!watching from Quebec canada!
Hey! Keep these videos coming. You are educating the world. And,.......maybe some of us could use a bit more education. Thanks for taking the time to create these.
the guy only shares his point of view . you could have a differed and can both be right.
to be honest this guy has been on both sides of the same coin...he knows what he can say , and what he cant say , its politics.
it got notting to do with good or bad / right and wrong , but whats best for business.
@@martijn31101969 People really need to stop thinking that a high school diploma is enough.....it isn't!
@@CollectiveWesterner for a university graduate you are, you fail to understand that this professor is biased at some point because of his background as a prominent political leader and now teaching in an European institute, which is aiming to promote EU ideology in the end.
Yes he has a good speech, relevant but it doesn't mean he's a neutral, what a professor should normally be....
That's the point of the other guy that you sarcastically call "brain dead" because he doesn't have a university degree which is a low key reply in an argument.....
@@xayvath5221 It is a universal human condition, we all have biases within our individual understandings of the world. To deny this is the same as it is to point it out....pointless. ☮️
@@CollectiveWesterner what amazed me is that you denying it and choose ad hominem instead of giving an insightful input.
"you have no graduate degree so your opinion is pointless" kind of contradictory isn't it....
Kiitos Alexander:)
Russian Trolls abound. But soon they'll be needed to fill the gaps in the army... sad... I'll miss them. Seriously.
😅 Funny 😅
They can try to sneak up on Ukrainian positions and hit Ukrainian soldiers with their keyboards.
I won’t miss trolls.
Thanks for the series. Should we expect an extra episode with few words on China in respect to the war?
He could go a little further and discuss ASEAN and South America. These types of videos seem to ignore South America for some unknown reason.
@@daniellarson3068 because they are not involved at all in the moment
Thanks
Nature of power = energy.
Thank you for your brillant lecture. I m specialist in foreign affairs and a thriatlon and marathon runner. My regards from Argentina.
Very nicely done ;)
Finland since before WW2 never relied on any other country to rescue them. Finland did a dance with Soviet Union for so many years and this guy nails it. Read Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis Paperback - May 12, 2020
“Finlandisation” was a term of abuse in the west for complicity with the Soviet Union. Under the long rule of two ultra-cautious presidents, Juho Kusti Paasikivi and Urho Kekkonen, between 1946 and 1981, the Finns did things “unthinkable in any other democracy”, such as engaging in self-censorship, postponing a presidential election and pressuring one unacceptable presidential candidate to withdraw. ‘ However, note this Finland survived and has prospered. U.S. has always being isolated which has served its interest in pursuing its own interests with capitalism pushing more and more greater fallacies on this earth. We have hit the end of Fossil Fuels so delaying an energy crisis by using either Russian oil or U.S. reserves eventually will fail. And the longer U.S. pushes this narrative, the worse the results will be. Cognitive Dissonance is the very definition of U.S. policies today. This earth needs fewer nations and more global efforts to address what really matters. Eg. Climate Change is a good start!
Great job on all 4 of the series. Finns are such a well educated group of people! My solution would be simply a world with a new system called “Common Sense and Decency” (for all) Another way to put it would be “if it works, do it. If not find a better way. And don’t piss in the water you drink!
The current World Order defined as based on Rule of Law is impersonal. Rules and Laws are created and observed by global negotiations and agreement. And then the world's members are expected to follow what everyone has mutually agreed... Not much room for subjective interpretation what might make sense or is decent although one can argue that the commonly agreed upon rules of behavior would almost certainly be based on expected common sense and decency. And, like any other liberal democratic creation, all it takes is a majority opinion in most cases to change what needs to be changed.
I don't think a system created from colonialism and imperialism will accept "common decency for all".
I believe in *Common Sense and Decency*. But, unfortunately, living can be so very difficult and brings all the time new problems to be resolved. It's hard. I would be happy if people thought more when they are electing their leaders. That would help a bit:)
A hug from Finland
Well brainwashed by western Propaganda.
I once thought that the Security Council should be restricted to countries with democratic governments and all of such countries, however small would rotate through.
Sir, you are a genius! Fly me to Florence today!
Thank you. Geniuses The word have to lessen this !
Quadra-Polar most likely, with each pole competing for the "loose" countries.
This is what is missing in discussion thank you! If you ask ordinary citizens of Africa, Middle East, India, China and some of the South American countries they are biased in favour of Russia. They feel the suffering of innocent Ukrainians in the same way as for the people of Yemen, Iraqis Syrians etc.
You can replace it by saying that western citizens are biased towards Ukraine and what their mass media told them. Hence russophobia is well formated in their mind.
If I understand you well, third world should firmly take sides for Ukraine and close eyes for any hypocrisy seen on this conflict right? Only one truth right?
Ironically Russia army fought in Afghanistan
Ukrainians aren't colonialists.
Like so many of Russia's neighbors, they're the colonized.
I find it strange that the global south would side with the fascist rump empire that is Russia.
Excellent videos. Thank you. One thing though, I think innovation should have been included in the list of sources of power. The ability to innovate varies greatly from culture to culture and this quickly can disrupt power dynamics.
This guy is amazing. I heard no embololalia. Concise and calculate in his words. Would love to meet this guy.
Calculated perhaps, but concise and precise is my preference 😁
He is Gre@tRes€tMini0n of W€F, the school he leads is funded by the€lites wh0 have c0uped westerndemocraties. The s@nctions f0r Russia are aimed as much for reseting/weakining/destroying of the west democracies & sovereign nations (needed before the globalists like him can finalize their coup of the goverments) as they are aimed at destroying Russia. Putin is against their unipolarGr€atReset, that is why the hatemongering against russians in €lites masspsyopm€dia. Stubb, please change your side to the God, Jesus Christ and Holy Spirit. If you don't, you are against all the good in the God created world and against the people. UN, WHO, WEF, NGOs, US DeepState, Soros, EU etc. are in €lites planned tools for destroying the humanity and Christianity from the world. See the EU babelian headquarters building, the Swiss tunnel 2016 opening ceremony (=cabal ritual with baal etc.), genemoding plan for transhumanism, God gene manipulation by Gates and his patents for giving social credit digi money to the transhumans via complying to the orders given by AI. That is all from their god the demon, as are the toxic vials of the mRNAvacs. TheZionist€lites/@skenazis have their roots/origin in kazars, who destroyed, killed, kept ancient tribes and nations in fear and stole babies&children of others and sacrifized them to baal. Until the leader of ancient Russia forced them to choose one religion (christianity, islamic or jewish) and they 'turned' jews, but some of them only in surface, not spiritually. The offspring of the evilkazars have caused all the world wars and gained more power and wealth by them. The communism was forced by them to Russia hundred years ago by their kazarMinions Uljanov (Lenin) and Dzugasvili (Stalin), Trotsky etc.
They hated ethnic russians and arranged the genocide of 60 million of russians during 20th century by cold, starvation (food, wheat, potatoes, cabbage etc. stolen from the people to the €lite for their own profit) and hard slavery in gulags.
Putin, russians and 99% of the world does not comply to the NWO/Gr€@treset. Neither does our Almighty God.
May the Heavenly God and Jesus Christ forgive all us sinners, win all the evil in this world and give us all grace, compassion and love to be kind to each other. Open your eyes and ears for the Truth of the only true God by reading the Bible.
Allies have weapons too! If US and Nato continue to give weapons more and more involvement . Allies of Russia will be forced to support Russia at some point . Show Russia through action if it is friend or Foe. Do you think they would sit back and watch Russia loose due to Nato involvement. Many are not fans of Nato!!!
Do you forget that Russia, China extend friendship and cooperation treaty -until 2027 . Why did US and Nato get involved in the first place. Ukraine was not a Nato country . It was even refused entry.
The war would have been finished in a week without US begging for Nato involvement . However lets not forget • US gave 4 billion dollar loans to Ukraine since 2014 ( one this year and three between 2014-2016) The Invasion was not a surprise to US it was provoked inorder to provide a reason for regime change in Russia . Poking the Bear into action inorder to kill it !!
Very interesting and maybe a bit idealist. I do wonder whether bi- or tripolar concepts can reflect the need for international cooperation to tackle issues such as war and peace or climate change that affect the whole world. Also, if one looks closer, one can see big projects like the new silk road initiative taking shape with Asia being such a huge market that capitalism cannot ignore it in favor of political union in Europe. And how about that supposed unity in cases such as Hungary, Greece and Britain? I do have a notion that the whole situation gets very messy if one includes just a few more variables that transcend the immediate ideological conflict taking shape.
Lol some of my Finnish buddies says 90% of negative. You leftist and members of The Power belongs to kreml party...unholy alliance. Also; stubb was referring to climate, he did not said anything about climate change.
This guys content should be pushed/cycled more throughout news/media/etc, it’s a constructive perspective that wouldn't be a bad thing if everyone got an opportunity to refresh with
Sir need your lecture also in written form where we should understand clearly,..I am from pakistan.your lecture is helpful for Current affairs paper in competitive exams.
Finn's faced Soviets since inception so their insight will fascinating.
Indeed.
Has nothing to do with what they faced in 40s. It's not video game where you face sams faction. It's not Soviet Union anymore just like Germany is not Nazi. Dumb c
very nice intro music
" The times they're a changin "
Great videos, thank you. It seems to me that it doesn't make sense to create global rules without the ability and will to enforce them.
Yeah... I don't understand why people would make an institution that freezes and becomes useless if one member, the perpetrator, goes rouge...
Change is always happening, but some changes are minuscule, however, after a while, the change is too much to conform to established structures. Suddenly some events trigger drastic change, and we need to adapt.
The former League of Nations expelled the former Soviet Union after their winter invasion, however, the Nazi threat eventually led Western countries to help Russia fight the Nazi regime.
The situation is quite different after so much change, and the Nazis are gone.
Seemingly Putin has taken the role of a Russian dictator, and opposes so much change around the world, so we can't have any expectations of working out a reasonable agreements with him.
As a member of the security Council at the U.N., Russia can't be touched apparently, but democratizing the U.N. afterwards would reduce the abuse of veto power.
Small countries are participating more and more. Although there are major cultural differences, also there are universal values like the appreciation of freedom and democracy.
Saving the Earth from global warming is another reason to be more inclusive. All countries will need to perform tasks to solve this universal problem.
well red army also ,,liberated" a lot of countires russia/soviet union liberation was just way worse than an american one just look how the eastern europe countries react to russian war in ukraine , they support ukraine as much as they can more than some western european nations
If the European Union is to survive they must create a united military force as well as political. Like I said Europe is no longer the centre of the world but it can be a leader of the world as long as we remain united.
The regionalization of globalization has been taking form for some time. It will be interesting to see how this war impacts the process in the Global South.
I feel like I am getting to sit in on a high level government briefing.
Wonderful series.
Another angle people talk about is old ideology bs new.
Old ideology orientates around more quantifiable matrices, likes of land mass, population etc whereas new ideology is more comprehensive and intangible in some instances, size of economy, trade balance, technology, industrial output, R&D, human capital, relationship capital (alliance) etc.
if we reconstruct current affairs, Russia on one side looks at land mass, resource reserve, military numbers etc pitching it closer to old ideology camp.
China is determined on its land mass (conflict with India, Japan, Vietnam NK, Russia and new naval ports in Sri Lanka, Solomon Isles, Djibouti etc) also military might but some focus on economic output, political influence, financial influence, technology etc.
whereas the West doe not actively seek colonisation of further territories, has been less focused on their military capacity etc but more focused on economic dominance.
If we draw a long line of human civilisation where it starts from small (clans) to large groups (states), from military driven (rule of fear) to democratic government (rule of people), it is clear which direction we have taken in last few hundred years.
This could be a short lived phenomena or could be the trend to come. Only time and determination of people will tell.
The conflict in Ukraine can be depicted thru many different lenses yet another interesting way to biew it is old vs new ideology.
You speak also like a prophet your lectures are sound and unbiased
"Unbiased"? That's a joke, eh?
💯
2:05 is that a pun[Stubb]?
Dude this guy hits the nail on the head every time , it's like he is saying my thoughts but with a much clearer vocabulary and depth.
The rest of the people who try to analyze this fail miserably.
Are all Fins this smart or is this guy a special case?
Such a cold approach to the situation it almost feels like a math class where the answer is clear because you have taken into account all the variables.
As for China I was optimistic but looking at the threats they making to Taiwan and the way they treat people and pets too China is not long for this world either and also how they talk to the USA like US owes them anything China will end up even worse than Russia after the war.
I really had hopes for China but it seems communism is just rotten to the core, big surprise right... Can't put lipstick on a pig
Russia can't survive without Europe they fail to adapt, they just tried a few years of Democracy got cold feet and went back to their old ways.
Human nature is defined by resilience Russia seems to be struggling with that. Maybe that's the reason they were pushed up north near the Pole cause all the good land got taken by the more resiliant.
That is because he is brilliant and because we have 1000+ years of "Histoy" with our "Great" neighbour!
Pp
Don't really agree with the last sentence, soviets have always been very resilient, but not necessarily the most advanced, technologically, etc. command structure has been supreme leader since the Mongolian invasion in the 13th century. That area is geo strategically very easy to invade considering the flat landmass, also rich in soil, natural resources, wheat, oil, iron etc. So there is profit incentives too.
Yes we Finns are. But this man put it into words
Generally speaking all populations have smart and less smart individuals. Statistically speaking Finland has historically been at the top of education quality world wide so I think many finns develope a very logical/academic way to approach problems and the ability to actually understand the problem. But still no, plenty of absolute idiots in this country aswell!
Regarding the comment about russians being less resilient and thus got pushed up north, i'd argue the very opposite. As a finn I know finnish life in and close to the arctic has been a fight of life and death for our entire history up until the beginning of the 20th century. The climate is unforgiving the land is not very fertile during the 3 months of summer when its actually warm people had to work almost around the clock to make sure they can survive another winter. These latitudes historically haven't allowed the possibility of being mentally weak or a fool. As I see the world, during my lifetime all conflict has been in the areas of the world where life has historically been more comfortable.
This was a wonderful, interesting and informative video. I am from the US and have 2 questions. 1) Has the power structure changed in Europe since WWI. The population that was wiped out in I and II would not have been the people (elites) running their countries but poor and whatever middle class was available. So the elites would have basically survived and are still in control of their countries and business wise their overseas colonies (France, UK, etc.). This is basically the UN permanent security council. My point..The aristocratic group is still in power globally (maybe minus the US,China). 2). The effect of 6B people on the planet. Populations pushing into countries with food and countries like China emptying the oceans of fish, buying up farmland, precious metals, fresh water (Tibet, Lake Victoria hydroelectric plants,etc.). Population has already hit the critical level as concerns natural resources. Both of these points seem important to the power hierarchy of the worlds current condition. Thank you….
Interesting statements. It will be great, if you write your two questions, because i am curious now.
China emptying the oceans of fish - just can’t help it can you. Why can’t you word that more subtly instead of demonising a whole country with your imperialistic view. China does a huge amounts for sustainable fishing and replenishing stocks. There’s more pioneering work going on in China in green tech than in USA.
I think you identify two important issues others ignore. Have the elites in Europe changed in over a century? How responsible are the policies of powerful countries like China concerning the environment and how sustainable are their practices? I'm just posing the question.
@@cfos118 China has certainly raised the living standards of many of their people in the past 45 years. Any country that does that deserves admiration. There is a stigma here in US because our businessmen took much industry from US and took it to China. You can't blame the Chinese for that, but perhaps people don't look wide enough.
Thank you. I wish there was more of this out there... from both sides. I have a small theory to add...
(you were the first commentator I have heard saying that Russia has not changed since 1400's.. I have always believed that "Russia"'s problem is it's isolation and size, and that when things are going well internally, it gets aggressive and tries to interfere in "Europe" ) - they're like the poor cousin we all feel sorry for, but don't really want to know, and ignore until they throw a dangerous tantrum.. - Russia is always led by one strong man (Sorry Catherine) .. with a slightly smaller but tightly controlled very wealthy/powerful group, .. and then tens of millions of serfs..
If the strong man stays strong by keeping his advisors relatively weak and powerless.. what Putin has done.. and eliminates any potential rivals.. and has no heir apparent.. not groomed and encouraged a successor, or any nay sayer.. Well then, he has to do something dramatic or die.
my theory.. anyone who stays in power for too long, begins not only to fall for their own propaganda, but disintegrates... whether dictator, autocrat or elected representative. (Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair in my life time) Putin is no surprise, and far from mad or deranged. He's just the top of a weak hierarchy.. his doing, and too long in the job.
The Roman Senate, 2000 years ago, knew what it was doing when it limited terms, and had term limits.
Also, thank you for pointing out Ireland's constitutional Neutrality. It is an important part of our identity in the international community. As white, English speakers it can be hard for us to explain the effect of 800 years of occupation, colonialism, and close contact with a much more powerful neighbour - But - We will never, ever be the aggressor. What army we have is token defensive, but they can all go on UN peace keeping missions. My hope is that we stay this way, genuinely neutral.. even if it means that you have to join Nato.
Also, on the off chance you ever read this... is the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland a "Frozen conflict" ... like in Georgia.. or what would you call our arrangement?
The difference between Russia/China and the west was we went through the industrial revolution whilst they never really did. After 1860s the west advanced at a great pace and since we had democracy and not authoritarianism, our industry magnets were free to build and develop as against state controlled monopolies. So you have two distinct ideologies, you work for your boss or you work for your country. This is why Russians think Russia we would think about the company we work for whilst our Government do other things like tax us to hell whilst we make money for our boss. That is why back in the 1970s Britain closed or sold most of its state owned industry, it was backward looked inward there was no incentive to make money only waste it. Innovation was slow investment poor at best management was terrible and profits were irrelevant since you could just ask for more money it almost bankrupted the UK. Add Unions and you get the picture, bad news. Apply this to Russia and Perestroika Glasnost and the fall of the Soviet Union, to much to fast uncontrolled corruption etc China learned from the Soviet experience and did things slower and more controlled whilst the Government tried to retain control. When Putin came to power in 1999 he wanted his piece of the cake and so did his friends and KGB/FSB whilst they were interested in the money not running the companies which lead to the corruption they have today
If you join NATO and anybody anywhere attacks it, you go to that country with your defensive force to attack (and leave your defense somewhat open at home). Sometimes the country in question isn't even NATO...
Next war is evident around China.
@@uselessoldman7964 You make good sense, but I disagree about the union thing. Perhaps, it depends on what part of the world you live in. Here in the states, unions have been crushed in my lifetime. The law gives the power to the employer. There is essentially no negotiating power for workers. Unions provide that power of negotiation. They are democratic organizations working for their members. Unions don't want the companies to be harmed any more than stockholders. The companies are their bread and butter. Luckily, I think the current demographic situation will bring power back to the people who operate the workplaces.
@@daniellarson3068
That’s starting to change with Starbucks and Amazon voting in unions. I heard on news some 40 % of republicans are currently for unions.
@@LiberalinOregon You have to really be careful talking to some of those Republicans. Some of these republicans are pro Putin and if you ask if they are in favor of unions, they think of the Soviet Union.
I think the Cold War world was comfortable for the west because the proxy wars were fought in defenceless and vulnerable countries with puppet regimes. The US was running riot with regime change activities again in vulnerable countries. To my mind the Chinese, Russian, with of course North Korea and Iran as an axis, with other emerging economies in the Far East and parts of the Middle East, possibly supported by some other developing countries might find a voice, similar to the era of decolonisation struggles after the Second World War. The Bay of Pigs 1964 and how America reacted comes to mind, the world averted a Third World War but the US hasn’t forgiven Cuba yet.
I believe the west only believe in free market economics, as long as it’s to their geopolitical and balance of trade advantage (Not really democratic principles, freedom of speech or strong institutions in developing economies). I just hope we find away to end this culture of direct or indirect regime change that has kept a large part of the world destabilised with puppet regimes.
The Cold War was fought on ideological grounds. Since its demise, I don't see the same since and today. Instead I see autocratic countries like China implementing their own version of liberal democracy to a point because they recognize it's the way to succeed. In particular, it'll be interesting to see where China goes from its current crossroads... It's experienced enormous economic success in places which have fostered capitalism and entrepreneurialship, but in 2021 suffered massive losses related to poor centrally managed decisions like domestic coal production, agriculture, and although the Chinese HSR network is a wonder of accomplishment, it also cost the Chinese economy in ways that may never be recoverable.
Russia of course, has been an abject social and economic failure with its ruling class stealing every bit of excess ordinary Russians produce.
The point probably is that every country today rules its own nation relatively unaffected by other countries unless it threatens the World Order, ie violent terrorism and/or autocratic taking what doesn't belong, like cleaning out fish stocks in maritime economic zones of other countries.
Although stuff might be and probably is happening hidden from public view, for the most part America is observing but not actively and subversively interfering in other countries' affairs. People can always make up conspiratorial stories but the reality is that for the most part when nations fail, they're do so without much of any help from the outside.
And, although every nation is different, IMO impoverished countries should study how China was able to build itself up so quickly to be the *2 economy in the world. I don't agree with everything China has done, but no one can dispute the great strides China has made over the past 30 or so years, and there's no reason why China's successes can't be replicated elsewhere not exactly but whatever works for that country.
Tony it would be impossible for other nations to replicate what China did the West is already given its manufacturing engine way to China China has already stolen most of the wets Secrets as far as military and whatnot that's how they got there they were allowed to get there and they weren't allowed to get there for any altruistic reasons I think it's for more ominous reasons and I'm suspecting you'll get to see them
No More mrs. STUBB!
👍
I fully expect there to be a renaissance of culture & commerce inside of European Union, now that the ranks have been closed, with a common defence to follow to ensure the continued prosperity. Other regions of the world may eff their things up, but I see good things ahead for the EU.
Yeah Germany is rearming, hundreds of tanks are in their war from the us to Poland and Germany, over 110 000 US troops have arrived in Europe and added to the 300 000 plus NATO troops that have been deployed to NATO eastern borders. 5 aircraft carriers are currently deployed in the Mediterranean with more on the way. France has deployed all of its 3 nuclear submarines at the same time for the first thing time in history. NATO of preparing to go to war with Russia, there will be no renaissance, just death and destruction
@@GuinessOriginal Only if Putler / Russia does another stupid move (so it is a possibility), but that would be the end of the Russian federation as well.
Hope you come back in this topic !! Super good!!
I have already started to reflect on this topic!
But as long as the human EGO is not understood are errors in the WORLD ORDER inevitable!
A clearer teaching at an early age of understanding how the human EGO works would help a lot!
Perhaps the encouragement of Buddhist teachings to understand man's innate legacy of FEAR and violence
that must be highlighted at an early age so that action can realistically lead to generations that can create a better WORLD ORDER!
At present, humanity stomps more or less in the same place for hundreds/thousands of years ago!
Despite a lot of material and knowledge development.
But also - it's a time for citizens to become more empowered in creating the world around them by getting away from a systemic lack of human agency. This means a decentralization fueled by open collaboration - open source microfactories, circular economies, regenerative development. Solar hydrogen economy. Solving all pressing world issues. Because now we have the technology to get there - and our last frontier is the psycho-social development of individuals to get us there. This starts with reinventing education towards integrated learning.
The next Jen Stoltenberg
I don't know how a properly functioning 'world order' can exist without addressing global limits to human population. Global shortages of basics such as food and water suggest we've reached a Malthusian limit. Some suggest that were it not for an unreliable dependence on technological advances, the world could not sustain more than a billion people. Yet here we are at eight billion. I don't know how we stop one person's (currently, Putin) dystopian vision from starting a war. But, we can at least strive for technological advances to sustain the population's demands. The #1 advancement should be development of fusion power to replace hydrocarbon based power. That would be followed by at-scale water purification/desalinization.
In concert with technological advances, countries should recognize that if their population exceeds what their land can self sufficiently sustain, they have even more instabilities beyond what all countries already have from a dependency on technologies that are themselves unstable (e.g. monoculture crops, artificial fertilizers, genetically modified plants/animals, insecticides (killing pollinating bee populations), excessive extraction of underground water aquifers, massive toxic consumer and industrial waste, large scale urbanization of once arable land, etc.)
That tripolar world is very similar to something I often point out to people who defend Russia by criticising the US: the EU has tons of criticism about the US too. And in a world where European values are not under threat, the EU might well field stronger opposition towards the US. But in a world where autocracy is on the rise, democracy is under attack, a totalitarian China is starting to throw its weight around, and Russia is attacking democratic countries, the EU will always jump into bed with the US, because we need allies, and the US is the only option available.
If Russia and China want to reduce the influence the US has on the world, and especially on Europe, they should become democratic and respect human rights. If they do that, the EU would have less need to side with the US, and any criticism about US warmongering and infringement of human rights, would come from a position of credibility and honesty. At the moment it doesn't. It's the geopolitical situation that is pushing the EU back into the arms of the US.
Agreed. The logic of the respective parts in this conflict is backwards with regard to each other. The authoritarians' logic stems from themselves and ends with themselves, they feel they are at threat just because they are losing their relevance (which is true) so they must find a way to still be relevant: the only way they know how, by force. The means with which they do so are inconsequential to them since it is they who feel they are being wronged. In their mind they shouldn't be neglected because they are mighty so they are poised to show their hand but the truth is that if they were indeed relevant they wouldn't be neglected to boot. No matter how corrupt the west is, it will never change that fact. The reason this is all so scary is not because they are wrong but in spite of it. Because with this having been pointed out, it quickly becomes evident that they are who they are not as a means to an end but the other way around: they would not be who they are if they weren't authoritarian. For instance, Russia simply can't exist with a democratic system, it's just too large, there would be free elect. And the CCP can't function economically without a top-down controlled economy. I also think there is another aspect to this, and Russia chose this moment carefully because they know a controlled demolition is comming for the world economy and they are happy to be the scape goat if it means having a shot at what they want.
Bing part of global trade should be conditional on regular, fair elections
So good to see a stronger and MORE UNIFIED Eastern Europe coming out of this. THANK GOD.
you mean the part of Europe that most has been a platform for putin to influence Europe? whats wrong with you?
@@jh5kl I have a bad back, maybe you could help.
@@Bill-xx2yh why not ask putin also?
So I guess that whole Good vs Evil thing is right out then...
This will be seen! My guess is that Russia will cooperate much more with Asia in the future, and China will be the buyer of its energy. This is a really good situation for China. The U.S. want to profit from this situation by selling Europe expensive energy in form of LNG-gas, but it can't last because the European economy is already so fragile that it's unable to work with such expensive energy. And the situation gets a lot worse if Russia takes all the best parts of Ukraine with metals, minerals and agricultural lands and leaves Europe with the worst part of the country and the refugee crisis which will be too much for countries like Poland, Romania, Bulgary. Their economies can't bear the burden and the rest of Europe can't help without more and more DEBT, DEBT and DEBT.
All of that is not a given.
Other sources of petroleum exist but are unavailable because the country won't increase production (Saudi Arabia) or is subject to sanctions (Iran). The US probably has a lot of short term LNG and crude oil capacity but is limited by its total refining capacity and transport by ship.
So, things like a reversal of decision to sell more from the Middle East, or a new JCPOA allowing Iranian oil on the marketplace could greatly affect Europe's oil dependency...
But the real long term solution is to stop making excuses and accelerate the development of Green sources of energy. Europe has been dragging its feet for a very long time, betting on Russia as a reliable and cheap source instead of looking to eliminate use of oil and gas nearly completely.
This may be the start of the golden age of nuclear energy that has been promised for several generations. Nuclear energy may bring this energy independence to Europe while providing a clean energy future. The building of multiple energy production plants could become a standardized affair greatly lowering the cost as it has for many other human endeavors. It will also introduce a new product, i.e. energy plants, that can be marketed to the world.
If you do not understand just one point like " NATO abolishment agreement" then do not try to justify what the conflict is about
Thanks interesting information. As a student of biblical prophecy, i find this interesting in comparison to Daniel's king of the north vs king of the south. However our dilemma is that we understood the king of north as the west and king of the south as communist Asia. But rather today Russia is actually showing characteristics of the king of the north. And the west is actually portraying characteristics of the king of the south.
A question of morality.
We need a United States of Europe. Military and economically.
It will be a multipolar world order.
Watever is going to happen, the basic line will be that the more independent we are, the more free we can be.
we absolutely need a closer cooperating Europe protecting European safety and interests indeed
I agree that the global order seems to shift, but I'm not sure how this is related to the war in Ukraine. To me the shift seems more related to the loss of trust in US as its leader and the rise of China as a thriving alternative.
The war in Ukraine is considered a threat to civilians in ex-soviet States.
There is a new generation in Russia and the countries around, that wants to change this kind of dictatorship, but being a police state and with Putin mentality we are going nowhere. In the other hand, all these mafias containing arms, weapons and selling destruction has to be persecuted and cancel.
The Earth is in danger, we are close to the edge, while the Lords of the War reign rampant without a voice of dissent.
Alot of truth left out deliberately
You forgotten says , humans rights current as has been used as a weapon in modern policy today's
Considering that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for a promise from the UK and from the USA to defend Ukraine from attack, it is disgusting beyond belief that the UK and the USA would say "We will not defend Ukraine". That brings immeasurable dishonor upon the UK and upon the USA. I (as an Australian) am reminded of Britain promising to defend Australia before World War II and then abandoning us when war came. Our response of the time was to develop chemical weapons in Homebush Bay, (Sydney) (the subsoil of which is still contaminated) and to develop biological weapons in the basement of the Wagga Wagga hospital. Similarly, small nations will now commence building biological, chemical and nuclear weapons for their own defense. Indonesia has announced that it will use its five nuclear reactors to produce nuclear weapons. Japan, has been building the precursors for their nuclear weapons and for their delivery systems for many years. It is now likely that Japan will make the final step and become a nuclear power. The damage from this UK and USA dishonor will last for a century. It will be the century of shame for the UK and for the USA. Millions of people will die needlessly as a result. Australian has invested more than 100 years in fighting with the UK and with the USA. If the UK and the USA will not honor a commitment in which Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons then Australia cannot rely upon the UK or upon the USA to help us. Any words that the UK or the USA might say in response are meaningless. The UK and the USA were honor bound to send troops to help Ukraine retrieve the Crimean Peninsula and other areas of Ukraine taken by Russia. The UK and the USA are too afraid that helping Ukraine as they promised would cause World War III. Yet, they made that promise to Ukraine in order to remove nuclear weapons from Ukraine and so reduce the risk of nuclear war. Small nations, (such as Australia), cannot now rely upon the UK or upon the USA. There is also the looting of the Ukrainian treasury by corrupt Russian sympathetic politicians and Russian Plutarchs. Also there is the accusation that while President Joe Biden was Vice President of the United States, he engaged in corrupt activities relating to the employment of his son Hunter Biden by the Ukrainian gas company Burisma. Of course, I do not know the truth of these reportedly corrupt activities. Though, they deserve to be investigated in the light of current events. Regards, Geoff. Reeks
Non Aligned Movement?
I think Europe would not be part of tripolar world anyway, if Europe is a part then so would Asia on an equal footing.
this guy is pretty cool hey.
m o a r
The fundamental question is, Does might make right? Does violence and threat of violence justify injustice? Some people think it does. I think it does not. I think most of the world would agree with me. To accept Russia’s criminal aggression because it threatens the world with nuclear weapons is to embrace a Hobbesian world of all against all.
However, the practical application of this concept that might doesn’t make right is very complicated. It has been debated since ancient times. For example: Even a democracy gives the state the authority to use the threat of violence to enforce its laws. It seems that the rights and liberties of the individual must be balanced against society, which in a democracy is the rights and liberties of all the other individuals in that society.
However, despite the complications, the answer to Russia is clear. No! When the Ukrainians (with international help and support) have finally convinced Russia of this answer, we must continue to answer this question, both internationally and within our own countries.
I totally agreed economy is main reason. Where ever empire is there & enemy will be there too . our parents generation tea empire business forces to taken by British Then they call it English breakfast tea ( Ceylon tea)
IMO, the world needs to recognise the UN has been sidelined and needs to reform. I can see how a UN 2.0 could be more successful at promoting world peace and "ending the scourge of war".
"We believe in globalisation" Is "globalisation" new religion?
“A nation that is not self-sufficient and waits for other peoples to help is not worthy of independence” by Ho Chi Minh
No nation is self sufficient, we are all too intertwined.
@@08MiMi80 Self-sufficient in terms of having enough strategic resources like food and energy. If your nation is reliant on trade then you must have a navy to protect your own shipments.
So what do you mean by that in context of Ukrainian war? If we are asking people to help us against Russia that means we do not deserve independence?
@@Oleksandr-snk that's what he states that the former president of vietnam says. vietnam is communist and heavily relies on china for "self-sufficiency" so perhaps it's not worthy of being independent either?
@@Oleksandr-snk Because thats how the world works for thousands of years. Smaller kingdoms getting conquered by big empires. The reason why we are living in peace since 1990 was because the Soviet Union got dissolved and America became the sole superpower that acts as the world police. Now America is withdrawing their military all around the world because it doesnt benefit them economically and only focus on Indo Pacific to contain China.
In the middle east you have Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey who compete against each other. In Europe, Serbia wants Kosovo back. In East Asia, China wants Taiwan and North Korea want to take over South Korea. Africa nations still have border issues. There are also potential conflicts elsewhere that i cant remember. The world is full of conflicts and America was the only power that prevents those conflicts from happening. The global peace that got started from the fall of Soviet Union is ending.
In a healthy body - a healthy stool…
That's not regionalisation of globalisation that's multipolar world. And so far it seems EU is not one of those "3" big players named but only following what Pentagon says.
When I heard that, I thought the same as you... But there's really room to create as many polar centers of economic and political power as can be imagined, it doesn't all have to be the top competitors only. And, regionalization can be only one criterium. Take your pick, anything can be used to remodel who the polars are. One could even say that the world is unipolar centering on Taiwan as the sole supplier of advanced semiconductors to everyone and so is indispensable and irreplaceable.
A new global order based on international law. A new type of UN that would run concurrently with the existing UN and eventually replace it. Membership to this new UN would require countries to have to meet a minimum requirement. Use the EU as a example. Minimum human rights, GDP, democracy etc
Rewards could be free trade, defence, easy movement etc
basic reasons for russian agression?
(while puttin(g) aside "putin's explanations")
1. legacy- ukraine "escaped" during his mandate.
2. plan to control larger portion of world's basics , for future blackmailing
3. "i want and i think i can"
just as so many rulers in history
algo
Thank You For Your Deliberations On Foreseen Changes
In the "GLOBAL ORDER".
Though To Be Expected: Outcome Still Unknown
Reshuffling With Partly New Global Order After End of Ukraine War, Of Which
Regionalisation of Globalisation May Be Part Of It.
Soft spoken and very dangers man.
Is about American greed ..
Hey Alex! Great stuff. I believe you (and anyone else watching this) would really enjoy hearing through this conversation with Sam Harris and Yuval Noah Harari: Check out here from YT "Defending the Global Order: A Conversation with Yuval Noah Harari (Episode #276)". Lot's of similar thoughts.
I had just listened to that one - agreed. Noah Yuval Harrari did a similar solo discourse to the TED channel on here. I'm Ukrainian, and even I was surprised that Ukraine matters for the world order.
bäd ääs stubb
Tri-polar world = Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia ala 1984