Planetary Civil War
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- čas přidán 6. 09. 2024
- Wars in the future may involve vast interplanetary conflicts or civil wars sprawling over an entire world or more, but what will those wars look like?
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Planetary Civil WarScience & Futurism with Isaac Arthur
Episode 372a, December 11, 2022
Written, Produced & Narrated by Isaac Arthur
Cover Art: Jakub Grygier www.artstation...
Graphics:
Jarred Eagley
Jeremy Jozwik
Ken York
Mafic Studios
Udo Schroeter
Courtesy of Epidemic Sound epidemicsound.c... - Věda a technologie
This is our first episode in Ultra HD 4k Resolution (mostly), I'm not sure it will be the new norm as it takes extra time to do but the episodes up through early January are all already produced and are 4k too, so trial period, let me know if you're enjoying the extra visuals or not :)
4K? That's one more tiny step toward STEM compression and Transcension!
Sounds like a pretty cool episode topic if you ask me.. 😁
Good to know while I watch it on my b tier phone, I'll upscale it in my thought ok? 😅
Thank you for finally offering your videos in 4K!! Looks amazing on my Sony 750K 4K 65 inch TV. Feel free to experiment with offering HDR as well. Thanks again! Like I always say "If it's not in 4K then it's not OK" * side note when offered in 4K it seems to reduce blocky compression artifacts and reduces colour banding*
I tend to watch in a Chrome window as I dislike the youtube app and gotta have my plugins. I believe chrome only supports up to 1080p anyway, so it doesn't make much difference to me.
Loving the 4K, hope you keep the content at this resolution.
So Isaac basically you've given me the realization we don't need FTL travel nor an entire galaxy to tell massive space opera stories. I can almost imagine all of Star Wars taking place in an a single solar system. So much diversity and locations can exist within 1 solar system. And things can still seem quite far away but reachable.
So pretty much gundam
@@bigdaddydons6241 I feel like Gundam could still be even grander within the Earth-Moon "Sides", but it does provide a good template.
So you mean like in the expanse? xD
@@sirlamm6657 Even the expanse is peanuts compared to the mass scale stories that could be told in 1 solar system alone
Expanse is kinda low tech compared to what can come
7:51 “Welcome to Science and Futurism with Isaac Arthur; where we’re known for looking at the bright side of the future. And not many things are brighter than an atomic bomb blast.”
Should be the official theme of the channel 😂
I've got to try and find a way to use that line in a HFY short story.
@Elbow Drop Gaming please please someone paste it in the comment or provide a time stamp
"While hundreds of millions will die in the galactic wars to come statistically you would be less likely to be among the dead than any other time in history!" Isaac basically
*Hundreds of trillions!
Hundreds of millions every second in a modest interstellar war between two insignificant neighbouring systems
@@mvalthegamer2450 chinese military history
The sheer scale of things in the future from civilization to even civil war itself never ceases to amaze me. So big yet simultaneously so small. It's a shame that so little Sci-Fi truly grasps and utilizes the sheer scale and numbers that are possible from the tech they describe could create and support.
Yes another wonderful and informative Sci-Fi Sunday episode Isaac.
Yeah. Every time Isaac talks about conflict it's another sharp reminder of the scale that a _unified_ solar civilization has at its disposal. And a reminder that 'civilization' and 'nation' are very different things.
It's the most annoying thing about the _Civilization_ series, really. The idea that the French and the English are different civilizations rather than two nations in Christendom? It's pretty wacky.
That's based upon a critical assumption of continuous growth and advancement. Many things could occur in the next few moments that would dramatically alter our priorities and motivate us to a future of restraint and constraint. There are already movements to depopulation and ethical advancement. A viral philosophy could accomplish that shift in a generation.
I'm reminded of David Weber's _Safehold_ series. In the first book, Weber lays out some specific details regarding the terraforming process, crop yields, and the geographic size of the various nations. Some fans who were professional agronomists reached out to him on his web site and showed him how, collectively, those changes added up to a planet-wide population likely be 100x bigger than his original estimates.
This had a _massive_ impact on the later books in the series. Middling-sized armies were suddenly tiny fragments of the total population, almost every nation had huge populations of skilled craftsmen, and economic disruption and attacks on logistics chains had *devastating* consequences for tens of millions rather than just tens of thousands.
I remember clearly one passage about how an army couldn't advance because every possible road and canal was already choked with cargo moving goods to the front just to keep the army fed. Moving any farther forward would have meant mass starvation.
@@boobah5643 Especially annoying about Civilization is every civilization/nation (since they don’t distinguish between) of significance all started at 4000 BC instead of various points in history. Also, through exposure to other cultures, technological advances which once set one group of people apart, become commonplace.
I've been trying to approach the scale in my own writings but I feel like I'm falling short. I mean, a planet covered in millions of massive city spires that each house roughly ten billion peoples of the many, many many thousands of different races seems huge. But at the same time...
"Also, welcome to Science and Futurism with Isaac Arthur, where we're known for looking at the bright side of the future... and not many things are brighter than an atomic bomb blast."
Holy hell. Now that is my kind of humor.
I'm getting into a habit of watching twice with Isaac once in nebula and once here a few days later! It's that interesting that I wanna store it in my brain 🧠
So much info it can take more than one listen to absorb. But I'm not genius
@@WiseOwl_1408 i mean speculation isn't information but yeah its very thought provoking
This video makes me think of Megaman Zero. There despite apocalyptic events technology hasn’t regressed and is even advancing faster than ever. Yet all that technology is used to sustain the centuries of unending conflict.
Zero our Hero
Sounds reasonable
It also reminds me a bit of the Armored Core storylines. Earth is a blasted hellscape but humanity is still making technological progress. We have bunkers big enough to house cities, space travel is still on the table and at one point the corporations tried to make 'cradle' colonies that could stay in the upper atmosphere above the nuclear winter clouds. It's a dark nasty world but we're doing a lot more than just surviving in the dirt mad max style
@@FidoZip1988 The song I know goes
"Our Hero, Zero.
Such a funny little hero,
Until you came along,
We counted on our fingers and toes."
c&c dredd and total anhilation has similar themes
What happens after throwing off the oppressive outside power was pointed out by Quark on the first episode pf DS9: He expected the Bajoran Provisional Government to almost immediately collapse into a civil war, and in that type of civil war people like him tend to be among the first against the wall, so he was packing up and running as fast as he could.
DS9 was and still is so good. It holds up so well.
@@davescott7680 It had good writing, which is what's missing from the crap that's mostly being passed as Star Trek these days. Actually, what's tending to be passed as most mass media programming these days. Doctor Who is one of the best demonstrations: As long as they kept decent writing in the revival, it stayed stables. When they let the writing go to hell the audience disappeared.
@@evensgrey Agreed. Discovery is pure trash, and the last TNG film was so bad even the cast hated it. SNW is ok so far, hopefully it continues the upward swing. Lower Decks is just fucking genius, that and the Orville are the real Star Trek now.
I cant help but think of Enders Game and how Ender thought the final battle was just another game and how effective that would be to get people to kill people, make them think it was just another training sim.
I like the way The Expanse describes civil unrest or warfare in space.
Still unrealistic tho
@@rommdan2716 YES
@@rommdan2716 how so?
@jhwheuer supply lines are magically fully stocked for years one day and then the next so vulnerable that almost any action whatsoever threatens the entire solar system. The entire systems economy is basically handwaved as the plot needs for a particular arc.
I had that same idea and was browsing through the comments wondering whether someone had already voiced it. If there will be not many small colonies, but rather one big, like what Mars essentially was in the expanse, there would be just enough resources and differences for both sides to be able to wage war against each other. The chaotic nature of the Belt in the series, on the other hand, reinforces the arguments about smaller, more isolated colonies made in the video.
I'm a little surprised that we didn't hear about the first rule of warfare in this video. 😁
Vets😉
First rule of warfare…
Always keep secret, the rules by which you will play.😉
The great drone war of 2073 has been going strong for yet another day, here in the designated combat zone between the warring nation states. As you can see it is once again 1pm local time, and like clockwork all the drones, battle bots, and giant sized war machines are coming to their regularly scheduled stop. We now go to our special war correspondent live inside one of the sweepers, those world renowned and strangely beloved vehicles that are dispatched daily. Over to you, John. "That's right all, I'm here aboard sweeper 8R3D-BR, otherwise known as Bread and Butter on the global feeds. As usual the crew is busy sweeping up the remains of the days battle along with dozens of other sweeper units. Rest assured we're quite safe, as the drones on both sides know not to fire at the sweepers, or each-other during the designated time-out period. We'll be at this for a little while this afternoon until the field is again clear, and all the scrap is taken to the recycling centre. If you want to leave messages for your favourite sweeper crew, use the link in your feed! Back to you Tom."
There you have it folks, another fine day on the field, and a rare glimpse inside the crew cabin of a sweeper! As always once the daily kill tally is confirmed, scrap will be awarded to each side based on how well they did. This will of course be used for refurbishment of their drone fleet, repairs, and production of new units if applicable. Who do you think will win the battle today? And how many days do you think the war will continue? Chime in online and place your bets in the link below! The current jackpot stands at 10 million credits, so don't forget to get those bets in soon! Tune in tomorrow for another update, and until then, have a great day!
Now this is an interesting take on "warfare"
This comes after the first drone war, where millions of soldiers were massacred by the enemy drone swarm after their own swarm was wiped out. After that, it was deemed unnecessary to involve humans in combat as their contributions are too insignificant to affect the final outcome. Of course there's still human commanders and remote operators. But even the use of the latter is being debated, as the marginal performance improvement over AI is diminishing day by day, while the negative psychological effects are not easily countered.
Its a realistic point of view from warfare of the future as conflicts today has become more localized and stigmatized as to make any bet of omnicide non applicable.
Yet one must continue to answer the desire of conflict that man is inherent that i personally think that the first drone war wouldn't be for entertainment but carnage.
The affect of drone warfare has been visualise on Ukraine war and its effect is...less humane but apathetic until experience.
@@torpenhigalak5909 i think as long as humans have free will humans will be involved in the fighting. Of course we'd still be involved after losing free will but then we would be called "organic drones" lol
Isaac started by citing Star Wars but the end scenario sounded a lot like 40k:
Anywhere there is a massive disparity between those with and those as without a conflict can spawn. Wars are fought over the wider infrastructure largely without damaging it and largely in regional/isolated “skirmishes” (taken by a grander scale). Yet above all that you have larger slower and more conglomerates factions where the overall rule is blindingly simple “pay your taxes (make your contributions to the wider whole), we are in this for the species” so a factional conflict could be ongoing in a stalemate for a thousand years but if some idiot blows up something vital then in 50-100-500 years someone may well show up to settle the conflict and it will be sone top down in a way neither side may like but have zero influence on (unless they are the only side clearly still trying to contribute to the wider civilisation/faction). Conflict resolved “mission complete” now keep it quiet because the galactic wing next door is being eaten by an extra-galactic bug-type hive-mind and the sporks you manufacture are needed in our meal-kits and you don’t want a bunch of angry warehouse supervisors sending their pissed off dock loaders (complete with ferris-wheel sized “dock worker” tooled up mech suits) being sent in to settle you down.
the future is a blend of 40k with dune... more and more i see this happening.
Let the galaxy burn
another thing I find happens even today, is how people are surprised when other far removed from them are indifferent to there plight. it doesn't imply a lack of sympathy or that the situation isn't real to those experiencing the difficult times, only that some are so distant that there isn't anything meaningful that they can do. being in habs at the other side of a solar system or further away in a distant galaxy from the ones experiencing difficult times only makes that sense of indifference even more profound to some. would make the situation of allies more interesting to say the least, when taking care of others would be at the sacrifice of self just to bridge the distance.
Great vid Isaac and SFIA crew. B)
and that is why 40k and dune is the future... people just dont give a fuck if it does not happen close to then.
@@ArlindoBuriti them/then understandable typo I've made many times myself. 'then' is an interesting way to put it, considering in 40k and dune the other side of the universe is only a jump away if your willing to brave the daemons or the warp or pay the spacer guild. everyone else must wait for the speed of causality, may not hear about a wrong till thousands, millions, or billions of years after the event. also would make for an interesting story/comedy for some race that sees all wrongs as a must deal with no mater when or where it was, "we are here from the other side of the galactic super cluster to collect fines for something your fifty-something generation back grand-something did something wrong and you must pay the fines for that". galactic fine collectors, almost has a hint of hitchhikers guide to the universe to it, Hmmmm.
No matter HOW far removed you are from a situation…. There always seems to be SOMEONE who figures out a way that your MONEY can help
My God! Real Engineering, Isaac Aurthur, AND Kurzgesagt videos in one day!
I can name some examples of human civil wars in sci-fi:UNSC vs the Insurrectionists from HALO, United Nations vs the Martian Congressional Republic from The Expanse, and the Earth Civil War from Babylon 5.
Technologies change but war? War never changes, especially wars amongst ourselves and it's all always over ideologies, political stances, resources, and territories.
Honestly rather than planets seeking independence from Earth I'd imagine the opposite happening; after years of sponsoring colonial development across the entire solar system Earth is starting to find that such expansionism is getting uncomfortably expensive, and seek to gift older colonies their full independence. Unfortunately, said colonies have come to rely on these external supplies and funds for a not insignificant part of their economy. So rather than risk going into a recession they put Earth diplomats in house arrest and refuse to let them go unless Earth is willing to sit down at negotiations and draw up new contracts to continue funnelling them money and resources.
It'd be the interplanetary equivalent of parents trying to get their son to move out on his eighteenth birthday but he's locked himself in his room and has the family dog hostage.
I see it working out more like a version of the Opium Wars where Britain forced China to allow trade at the point of a gun.
Interplanetary Singapore being kicked out from Malaysia l
@@Warsie more like the Caribbean islands from the British empire. Distant money pits that used to be valuable but carry a lot of historical and political baggage and are just easier to dump.
This is a good concept. Someone should get on that
@@derrickthewhite1 -- Don't sell the Caribbean short. At the time of the American Revolution, Jamaican sugar was the economic equivalent of Taiwanese computer chips today.
America was practically an economic side-show until the completion of the transcontinental railway a century later.
That's why the British let America go. They had already been on the receiving end of a slave revolt and guerilla war in Jamaica for *sixteen years* before the declaration of independence.
I haven't played 40k , but that first part definitely reminds me of Krieg 💯
Now, Techno-Barbarians of The Ohio River Valley? I think there's something there
Edit:. I was a Techno-Barbarian this whole time. That is the First Rule of Warfare.
I'm actually rather sanguine about the prospect of unified planets, including Earth. Planets, moons, and asteroids are so small and dense that they all essentially have the geography of small islands. However, unlike with islands in the sea, orbits don't respect boundaries and naturally cover the whole of a planet or other body, so any access to space and so to markets and resources abroad requires either monopolistic control to manage those narrow straits and keep them safe and clear or delicate power-sharing agreements which aren't really sustainable long-term without political unity. Our present free-for-all situation cannot hold for long. Access to space _has_ to be managed by a planet as a whole; it cannot be considered in part. Physics simply forbids this. Absolute distance on the ground does not matter, not even in the early days of colonisation, because getting to and from those colonies necessitates coordination with all others from the start; they will all be in immediate proximity for all intents and purposes, and this will encourage colonists to any planet or moon to see others on their planetary body as closer to them than people from somewhere else, even after just a generation or two.
I was going to start a planetary civil war--but then things got really busy at work.
Mass Effect is one of the few where Earth is not 'unified.' Hmm...
Of Course we have transparent aluminum now. Scotty gave it to us way back in the 80's. That film was a great documentary.
The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. That is a long time ago that I read that novel. A translated version was in my local Dutch library as a teen in the 80's. I remember liking that novel but it disappeared from that library and since I didn't knew it's title I never read it again. Thanks for reminding me again of a fond childhood memory.
4:00 In 1970, exercises were conducted in the USSR and the Warsaw Pact countries, according to which conclusions were drawn - the majority of the population of Eastern Europe in the event of a full-scale nuclear conflict would die within a week. The GDR turned out to be the most ready, where shelters could accommodate 40% of the population. Similar exercises were held in NATO countries, as a result, it was decided to focus on high-precision weapons, because the use of nuclear weapons deprives the meaning of war.
I can imagine an empire forming blockades around desirable planets.
A colony ship coming in not part of that empire may be confiscated and conscripted, or a trade agreement made and the citizens of that colony ship find themselves being recontracted to a new flag or megacorp, else turned away or seized anyway.
When saying that asteroids are so different from each other that they likely wouldn’t feel much kinship with each other, I am reminded of the assumptions made near the start of the American Revolution that a large nation would have so many differences between geographic locations that factions that span across a large portion of them couldn’t exist. Yet even within a mere few years the US was divided between those who wanted a closer more centralized urban union and those who wanted the opposite, and for most of US history it has had two large parties that usually divide themselves over some large question over what direction the nation should go (though of course with a lot of smaller groups within).
Given how quickly we can communicate through space, I would expect that the asteroid belt could unify together if faced with an outside entity based on their shared lifestyle traits molded by the necessary characteristics of a life on an asteroid in the same way that a farmer can empathize with another farmer that lives on the opposite side of a continent and push for similar policies that benefit all or most farmers.
"as well as to make your economy and society sturdier too"
This. Dispersing and hardening infrastructure and population and giving every garden shed an ABM battery is not totally impossible. In fact, it would probably be the default in a society where property values are determined by the distance from a nuclear target.
"a planet of trenches" reminds of a Tom Baker era Doctor Who episode that told the origin story of the Daleks.
Legend of the Galactic Heroes and Crest/Banner of the Stars are also good selections that discuss this topic too.
legend of the galactic heroes is a fucking gem that people should talk more about.
democracy is a lie for the empire LOL
I just started watching the second season of that. its really good.
Isaac I love you so much. The vision you transmit of the space and future is so desolate and eerie, with a tint of sadness. Its vast emptiness is dreadful and strikes fear in us listener, and yet the unrelenting beauty of the utmost inner strength is what shines by far the brightest in all your stories. Keep doing you Champ,
Planetary civil war, is this a Christmas episode? lol, thanks for another great show
I think you'd see the rise of militaries that are nearly entirely comprised of extreme high level special forces types that are also extremely well equipped. The scalpel option would be far more effective than human waves. Then you'd have some sort of militarized police/peacekeeping force more on the level of what we think of as the military today but that would be a civilian force.
Man I have to bring my tim pool drinking game here and take a shot everytime someone says civil war
Another great Isaac Arthur 'sode.
To paraphrase Monty Python, "Always look on the bright side of nuclear warfare...."
🎶 life’s a piece of shit
When you look at it 🎵
But always stop and blast’em with a smile 🎶
😂
As for the argument of "lots of land in the moon", in fact the polar zone has a great real state value, and nobody knows how much water it has. We may see wars for areas with high solar incidence near to water deposits VERY soon.
Happy Sunday Friends! I can think of no better way than to spend it listening and learning from Isaac! Live long and Prosper 🖖🏻
Thanks for listening, Kobe :) I hope you enjoy today's episode
@@isaacarthurSFIA thoroughly enjoyed as always❤️
I love the extra visuals and always Love the longer runtime.
"Welcome to science and futurism with Isaac Aurthor where we look at the bright side of the future, and nothing is brighter than an atomic bomb." Stopped the video, laughed for five mins, then cried for two. Love this channel!
Next to this, the sheer insane scales of Warhammer 40k don't seem so insane anymore, "miles upon miles of tunnels and bunkers", "a million deaths are not even a statistic". It sounds just as fantastical.
I always said this topic is subliminally the reason why the powers that be want to try and colonize the moon and Mars, even if they keep saying its for scientific and humanitarian reasons. The real reason being to get up there and just itching to try out new space weapons and try to do Battlestar Galactica. Becuase one planet might have a resource the other want and one might not want to share no matter how tied and connected the two entities are. And then here comes the shooting at each other. Good luck on doing medical triage on the battle field of space. You are lucky just to be alive up there instead of risking it all shooting at each other in a space suit (that you need to stay alive) in a environment with no air or gravity in the vacuum of space. Better fight the war with drones instead of people in space.
I still remember people kept questioning Prez' Obama about making a Death Star. He had to set people straight on that topic and say "No we are not making one, who will we shoot it at." So it still seem that's the main subliminal reason for trying to colonize stuff even from a historical stand point.
I'm not sure that large scale open warfare whehter between planets, moons, etc would ever happen: outside maybe small groups of O'neils that are collectivized. Even then, I'd imagine unless the asteroid/comet was particularly large or it was a dwarf planet, that thye'd just move on to the next big object.
When Kuiper Belt has possible 1tril + 1km object and there are what like 1mil that size in asteroid belt (many 10-20km +), then there is enormous risk to attack even a small group of O'Neils/asteroid colonies. All they'd need to do is refine some uranium/plutonium, take 1 asteroid, and you got enough material for literally 10s to 100s of millions of small drone ships: each with a payload that of a thermonuclear weapon like one of the 220t minutemans.
Don't want to wave your interplanetary phallus outright with nukes? Rods from God with bacteria/virus/chem weapons, plain old AP/HE or thermobaric weapons in form where 1 drone pops into like 1000 bomblets, each in the 100lb-1ton range. Each of these could be thermal guided to lock on to vital parts of enemies space habitats or the people/powerplanets/refineries/etc.
Imagine chem bomblets that pierce the habitat around the greenhouse/aggriculture areas: then spray round-up like toxic chems that insta-kill their crops; on top of all the good old destruction and gaping holes to the vacuum of space: just to ensure that if they lived and repaired it in time, they'll be facing starvation from poisoned crops.
...All in all, warfare shouldn't be as common outside of earth, whether the Aliens are amoral or not...there is just too much raw materials to fight over it: even if they're Kardeshev II/III civilizations.
I agree. Risking a war would be insane when you can just move away.
…and not many things are brighter than an atomic bomb blast. 😂
My favorite novel of all time is the Moon is a Harsh Mistress. For more than 40 years, I've believed that the Moon would have an advantage being at the top of a gravity well in the event of a war with Earth. It was oddly disappointing to hear Isaac say it wasn't true. Of course since I am unlikely to ever live on the moon, I suppose I should be grateful the Earth is more safe from a future lunar colonie than I previously thought. In the novel, it was discovered that once a person became used to lunar gravity they could no longer live on Earth, leading to the Moon being used for a prison colonie. Considering astronauts have spent in excess of 6 months in microgravity and been able to readjust to living on Earth, it will probably be possible to return to Earth after living on the Moon for a significant time period. Of course as regular exercise is necessary in microgravity, it will probably be helpful in lunar gravity.
Question for Isaac though. Now that Tim Dodd has been selected as the first CZcamsr to visit the Moon, do you wish you had applied? Would you apply if there is another opportunity?
The wars of Latin American independence are exactly the scenario you describe as "unlikely." That said imperial domination by Spain was replaced by capitalist domination, a newer form of empire, by the United States.
good
That is wrong, actually the British empire benefited the most economically from the separation of the Spanish colonies from their former masters , but because Spain was in a alliance with English during wars with revolutionary France and with Napoleonic empires, English didn't formally take control of those theritory and new founded states, and despite they formally supported former Spanish empire they make a very lucrative trade with newly independent South American states. (United States became major economic partners for those states only 60 years later in 1890 period).
@@theOrionsarms Nothing you have stated makes my statement incorrect. I merely decided not to describe an entire economic history. Also 1890 as a date is obfuscatory. Annexing half of Mexico in 1848 is quite an act of imperial dominance. The slave states were also keenly interested in annexing Cuba, Dominican Republic, and others.
@@kushluk777 imperial domination above the neighborhood states, maybe, but in 1830 United States economy wasn't very capitalistic(especially in the south) and don't totally dominate the trade with whole South America.And your initial statement wasn't completely incorrect,yes a new form of dominance for a foreign empire was established, but that empire was the British empire,at least between 1830/1890 period, I recommend you to read the book of Fernand Braudel first time published in 1979 "time of the world"it have a entire chapter about that.
4:18 and we introduce Kiege almost right off the bat.
Great video Isaac I love you content! I've been watching for years now. This is your best episode this year!
Wow, thanks!
For resource claims, I expect to see some minimum level of development (e.g. a pressurized habitat that a human has lived in for at least a week) and a maximum sized chunk of space (e.g. 50 km radius) evolve as a standard for reciprocal claims. Reciprical recognition of claims is the whole point, after all. It's useless to make a claim no one else recognizes.
Not if you can back it up😏
Excellent work as always, Isaac.
I love that you said from NZ to Jamaica. My nationality is Kiwi and Jamaican - what are the odds.
Centuries ago I was killed by the Catholic church, for suggesting that the stars in the heavens are each a sun in kind.
That there are worlds abundant, each dancing with its parent star, is now commonly accepted knowledge.
Are there any scientific concepts which invite controversy today, which will seem ridiculous with the hindsight of centuries hence?
Olympus Mons is the largest volcano* in the solar system. The largest mountain is on Vesta, an asteroid in the belt.
The late Sir Terry Pratchett wrote the following dialog that is just priceless:
“War, Nobby. Huh! What is it good for?" he said.
"Dunno, Sarge. Freeing slaves, maybe?"
"Absol-well, okay."
"Defending yourself against a totalitarian aggressor?"
"All right, I'll grant you that, but-"
"Saving civilization from a horde of-"
"It doesn't do any good in the long run is what I'm saying, Nobby, if you'd listen for five seconds together," said Fred Colon sharply.
"Yeah, but in the long run, what does, Sarge?”
Totes obs that Sir Pterry had heard this song:
czcams.com/video/01-2pNCZiNk/video.html
This episode makes me think back to the refuge civilization concept - like the humans from Battlestar Galactica. Could you consider the Human-Cylon war as a "civil war"? ;)
Yes
The cylons weren't even human let alone part of a unified gov with the humans so probably not
@@virutech32 spoilers:
Maybe some of the humans were cylon?
Cylon is genocidal war against humanity..we don't consider genocidal war as civil war
4th! All these videos offer some very in-depth perspectives! I hope we get passed the internal conflicts & I guarantee we would be sooooo far ahead as a civilization. Simply put; Golden Rule. ❤
I suspect extraterrestrial countries would be even larger than your average New World country (with the exception of Central America) due even faster methods of transport than were available during the age of exploration and the relatively low number of locations good for anything but automated mining. Almost all of Brazil's cities are along the coast, yet their claim to the Amazon doesn't really get contested that often and almost all their wars have been over the southern border with Paraguay and Argentina. Unless it has some value as a strategic choke point or is filled with uranium or gold, I dont see many people setting up rival colonies terribly close to contest some empty rock, so states should, as a general rule, be bigger than ones on Earth.
*looks up from reading about Kreig's civil war*
*amused gasmask noises*
Aren't all wars essentially planetary civil wars?
YEah but I felt the title "Planetary" was a better pick than Interplanetary :)
😁 that was my first thought. "Wait, isn't that a regular war??" 🤣
The anime Legend of Galactic Heroes (both original and reboot) has wonderful examples of this very topic,
yes... people should talk more about the legends of the galactic heroes.
This is such a shout! Great example indeed.
@@ArlindoBuriti the remake doesn’t look too bad, the original is a classic for sure.
Personally, I don't think Earth-bound civilizations would be able to conduct a war against whoever first occupies space. The reason: mass drivers. Being able to throw space rocks at very high speeds can basically permit you to hit any ground target with impunity - you may coordinate the timing and angle(s) of the strike(s), you can choose which munitions are (in)visible, via coatings, or add rockets to adjust the flight path enroute. This is a degree of control that far eclipses what conventional artillery is capable of.
If you have effective mass drivers big enough to threaten a planet it would be a very bad idea to use them because they will also have them. More & bigger ones to. also they'll likely have had them far longer than any spacers would have.
also got to get past earth's close orbital defenses so good luck with that. Pretty sure isaac has a video that talks about that. I think it was the Interplanetary Warfare ep
@@virutech32 Planet-bound mass drivers wouldn't be nearly as effective when compared to spacer guns. This is because Earth has plenty of gravity and atmosphere, which limits the ability to use big guns from the ground, along with restricting the amount that can be launched and maintained in space. Places like the moon or asteroid belts would present challenges to production, but once established, their performance would far exceed those employed by Earth.
Another part of it is that locations on Earth are relatively fixed targets. A space aggressor can have relatively good information on what to blast, while Earth would have difficulty grasping the spacer position: A spaceship or satellite with artillery can easily change position.
That said, a spacer civilization does have a major weakness: fewer colonies and manpower. This means that in a exchange of firepower, Earth can afford to lose much more, while every successful strike on spacer holdings would really smart.
Ultra thick buildings in space would be extremely cheap because we'd very likely build them with a filling of the parent planet. We don't do that here on Earth because it's terribly inefficient in terms of space taken, but on a different stellar body... that's not true. A first colony would have no issues with building a habitat by the same technologies used in ancient times. An inner wall, filling material, and outer wall. It would be cheap, easy to repair, extremely efficient at insulating (compared to other methods used by stuff brought from Earth) against various things from heat to impact (basically such a wall would in theory self heal as filling material would collapse on top, perhaps with a binding material activated by the presence of oxygen) and would be the same material you'd have around if you'd dig your way towards a lava tube (which any self respecting engineer would first identify, then dig from around so as to leave the arch intact, not not it's presented in various SciFi shows).
edit: and i'd do the same for a space ship. The romantic StarTrek ships are pointless. Tube ships with rock filling walls are the ideal format. There's no friction in space, only emptiness and danger. The best space explorer is the explorer who knows how to make things on the cheap. The more expensive things are once you're off our planet's ground, the worse your breach cone is.
11:15 Soccer ball with pentagons and hexagons. Each country or group picks their choice with friends as neighbors. After that then it's randomly superimposed on the Moon or Mars and then you find out if your shape is on valuable land or wasteland.
Get a 195 sided die and roll for position on each planet? It might work. It still would be better to have cheap FTL to all the exotic exo planets beyond the solar system. Everyone gets their own planet.
Always assumed that to fortify a world you would but laser dispersing gas in the atmosphere, stock up on supplies and go live underground constantly building weapons.
Before watching... At a certain level of tech (rapid automanufacturing, some level of nucleosynthesis) Mercury would effing dominate the entire system.
Edit: unlimited metals, best solar power position, frequent alignments and transfer windows outward, and eventually could even deny solar power to parts of the outer system
- The fact that we still have games of damage - some of them very entropic - is evidence that the rule of law (the legal system) is deficient in these contexts.
- A war (a negative-sum game of damage) may occur when a collective's oligarchy decides that it cannot achieve a strategic objective via the rule of law. This 'failure of communication' may occur when the legal system is deficient in some context; or, when at least one oligarchy has gone rogue.
- There was a time when war was considered to be a legitimate contact sport - the sport of kings. That is no longer true. War between member nations was declared illegal in the United Nations charter. The wars of the last half of the 1900s were often categorized as 'civil wars' ... allowing the pretense that the wars were not between members. This indicates a relatively obvious deficiency in the legal system. Can that deficiency be fixed? Only if the competing oligarchies decide they are tired of playing games of damage.
Star Wars is the largest sci fi franchise to discuss Civil War!
...
Apparently someone didn't read Perry Rhodan!
(Which is understandable since there were no translations past book 20 or so. ...)
Lol -- damn, this one goes real dark, real fast.
Made me think...fusion always been seen as the savior of humanity and gateway to post scarcity civilization. But issac touched upon something important right now nuclear war is inconceivable as both sides would lose. With fusion one or both sides can live indefinitely underground in bunkers while sending out clean up teams. It makes nuclear war expensive but not impossibly so...perhaps fusion is not the great idea it seems
Bio-weapons are worse. *achoo*
"I hate these filthy Neutrals, Kif. With enemies you know where they stand but with Neutrals, who knows? It sickens me."
I'm just here for the accent. Somehow it just makes these videos more impactful.
Comment for the algorithm, but also to say, this is one of those channels I don't wait until the end of the video to thumb up or down based on quality and information. I know every video by Isaac Arthur will be great and give it a thumb up in the first seconds.
Isaac, your European map (12:00) is quite old and there are states, wich ceased to exist DECADES ago. Czechoslovakia parted into Czech republic and Slovakia about 1995 or so. "YUGOSLAVIA" fell with Titos death and breakup of Soviet Union...
@isaacarthur3209__ Thank You Isaac, but do not waste packages on me - i was, im and i will be your supporter and want much more some interesting donations for you, instead of robbing you blind myself... :D
As soon as any other planet is legitimatelly colonized it will automaticly create an "alien" scenario where the planet unifies against another planets inhabitants as they would see them alien.
"Someone claiming all of Vesta"
Vesta is an integral part of Cascadia and always has been.
When Isaac begins to talk about the near future, I become tremendously sad, like a cold stone is sinking to the bottom of my stomach.
There are immediate, non-political problems which have plagued us since the pre-industrial era. These problems can't ever allow us to expand beyond Earth, since their survival depends on their parasitic relationship with us. Once we had a foothold beyond earth, free from these Problems, they know we would return to earth and attempt to solve Earth's problems and save the poor people trapped with these problems.
Sadly, I think our current trajectory as a species is a slow decline as these problems grow in number, where these problems will fill their stomachs as the world is emptied of it's life and resources, with each passing year the human race transforms into a slave caste, operating barely understood tools for these problems.
@J Wilt Don't go into religion lad.
@J Wilt Not today, Satan.
@J Wilt Can you help ,me
Gives me "The Arcadia Sector has turned on the Union, for this crime they must perish." vibes.
This reminds me fondly of Mass Effects lore, where the Systems Alliance established itself as the government of all of Earths Colonies complete with its own Parliament in space, but Earth itself remains a collection of nations, some of which are more prosperous than others, there's talk of some third world countries trying to grow their economy by striking it big on a world with extremely abundant resources and some of these ventures bankrupt them.
The concept of a Civil war on Earth with different colonies backing different sides is a pretty interesting concept that I don't think i've seen covered all that often either
"The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" is old and its flaws are showing. I really think the whole thing was to highlight the possibilities of linear acceleration. With proper usage you orbit one to send capsules to the moon and have a decelerator in orbit around the moon and of course vice-versa. With proper and somewhat scary operation the whole thing could be very cheap per kilogram of mass delivered to the moon. I wouldn't send passengers until the system was proven. 👩🚀
As for planetary nuclear war I'm afraid the possibility is strongly with us at the present time. The concept of a smuggler delivering your device was presented in the movies "Peacekeeper" and "The Sum of All Fears". I suppose they neglected to mention that Washington during the State of the Union Address is a much better target. They were Hollywood films and the US is not likely to win GWAR which is what I call this type of warfare. It's short for Global Warming Warriors. The type of lunatics who might find it desirable to destroy the capital of the worlds' most blatant violator of the planet. We export our industries to China which is probably responsible for most of our carbon release reductions. Something most people don't realize. With open borders, smuggling the core and implosion charges would be a simple matter, the rest of the device could be sent in by UPS.
Who knows, the Democrats might do it while a Republican President pontificates or vice-versa. People get carried away in the heat of competition during party-inspired competitions.🎠 vs🐘
God Bless Us All, everyone
So would a diamond window with graphine players be bullet proof?
depends on the quality of the materials & thickness of the window. Also material, speed, & mass of the bullet makes a massive difference
Depends on the bullet.
Considering how war is fought in modern times i cannot begin to fsthom the horrors that await us then.
Your speech has transformed over the years! Love your videos!!
Our own history abounds with people claiming OCCUPIED areas larger than their countries...Belgium, for instance with a whopping
Been looking forward to this all day!
7:00 more efficient to just make millions of drones while humans stay underground making them
Great analysis. The concept of war will certainly never leave us, and the reasons for war will certainly shrink over time, as we've seen during the modernization of nations and continents in the last couple of centuries.
The one area of criticism I have on this video is on conflict timescales. Your analysis was accurate in that, if an army goes door-to-door clearing rooms in habitats like you surmise, it would take centuries. But most large-scale warfare doesn't operate like that. Most modern militaries - and likely future militaries - focus on critical objectives, resource denial, and focus nodes.
Rather than try to clear an entire habitat and take centuries doing so, an invading (or rebelling) force would try to eliminate key leaders or tacticians, control or eliminate critical infrastructure like telecommunications or sanitation, or focus on clearing specific areas of interest like a financial or industrial district or military training center.
While not every military is focused on efficiency or concerned with losses, belligerents are always concerned with ending conflicts quickly, as public support wanes over time and the cost of troops and materiel increases substantially with each year. Extended conflicts also, as you discussed, grant the enemy (both sides) time to find allies willing to support and escalate the war.
14:31 - there's been a Guam independence movement for decades. They've been more active since 2016,too.
I vote against 4K… if I have a vote that is worth anything xD I mostly just listen without watching most of the visuals so for me there is no benefit, as well as the cost of the data, whatever that might be.
Another great video, thanks Isaac
you can still watch at a lower resolution though
They generally will stream at 720p or less unless you dial it up, YT doesn't ho out if its way to use higher data rates :)
Hi Isaac,
May I ask if there's a reason why you used really outdated map on 11:46?
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Caribbean islands are all breaking away from their colonies lately. Barbados, Jamaica, and st Lucía / marten I think (?) just in the last few years. I think it'll be very common soon.
That’s kinda skipping over a lot. Quite a few islands have no reason to be independent and are still colonies or territories of another. Of the ones that are already independent most were given that independence out of not wanting to spend money on them. There was an attempt to group them under a single governmental organization (Caribbean federation) but after gaining independence some didn’t really want to give it up sovereignty to another organization.
Colonies that can feed themselves could break away sure, but unless there is massive mistreatment like Haiti, most aren’t gonna be quick to rebel I think, and a few might never want to. Add to that how different each one can be due to relative distance even though the motherland is further away and I don’t see them truely uniting, politically at least.
@@joeandrew8752 …
Sort of like “twenty somethings” not moving out of their parents’ house 😊
I still fail to see any point in waging wars in a future, where you can just fly away and have an entire galaxy worth of resources to create whatever you want -_-
I thought space was "big". There certainly should be enough space for everyone. Of course, earth is too, soooo....
I noticed the sharpness and improved quality of this video as soon as I started watching.
The Expanse story is the most what probably will happens in the near future
Brilliant instalment Isaac ❤it, as usual.
"Welcome to SFIA where we look at humanity's bright future, and not much is brighter than a nuclear bomb."
That is iconic. I love it.
hey we had two of those already
The show The Expanse was good here imagining interstellar war.. 40K too of course (well, 29-30K)!
In a Galaxy of near infinite resources though, I don't think Humanity would fight itself if our speed of travel and colonisation were advanced enough.. But as I say 40K, Dune, games like Alpha Centuri and Stellaris (or EVE for people with brains they need to carry in a wheelbarrow).
Humans are sadly warlike, and good at it. Take the Inca - it wasn't so much the Spanish and Indian tribal allies that beat the Inca but that they had just come out of a huge civil war and plague (maybe from Euro Conquistadors up north but doubtful IMO) - anyway the ruling caste were wiped out by the time Euros met them, Inca was a title but the Royals were wiped out and the Empire weakened ()and of course how were the Inca and Aztec Empires created but through force, the Maya, Toltec, Olmec? (The Paracas are too weird to even make conjecture on). The peeps on Easter Island had virtually wiped each other out, when Cook landed - and on such a small Island!.
As our man says, we tend to find various reasons for war - love was a reason in Troy, slavery of other tribes in cultures from the Americas to Europe to Africa to Eurasia.. But generally it is resources in the modern era, we are already advanced enough to appreciate MAD and the dangers of even limited use of atomics. Infinite resources will make such conflicts pointless - politics will be far easier, hopefully we will appreciate there is no real limit and share, likewise our tech etc.will naturally come with this. Dogma is the only problem, especially those that could see us stranded on Earth, using up our last resouces for pointless commerce and pleasure or simply ignoring them and devolving as a Human Culture.
Troy? Love? Whut?
The Trojan War was a combination of a lot of things, but love is mostly out of it. We have everybody lusting after Helen, Odysseus's hilariously backfiring plan to keep the peace vis. Helen, Helen's divinely inspired lust for Paris, and Agamemnon's lust for making Troy his own.
Also: infinite resources don't exist. There are a lot, but not infinite. Heck, an obvious addendum to this episode would be "Conflicts at the End of Time" as iron star and/or black hole based civilizations squabble over what energy/mass/entropy remains.
Have you done an episode on the transcension hypothesis yet? I don't remember seeing one and I've been here since under 10k subs. If there is one, can someone link me? If not, it's a great topic.
Thanks Isaac!
Depending on what the transcension hypothesis is it's kind of spread out through a number of videos as a part of a larger topic as a while; like uplifting animals and/or gods and monsters. Id check those to see if they're close to what you're talking about, if so then you'll just have to start watching old videos to try and find the ones you want
@@aceundead4750 Thanks for the quick response though! If you like the idea maybe you can help me convince him. 😜
@@mykobe981 it honestly may already be on the list of things for him to get to if he hasnt covered it already
@@aceundead4750 Very likely. Here's a 2 minute vid that explains it.
czcams.com/video/nQOyJUDTKdM/video.html
In halo the reason most colonies fought against the UEG(unified earth government) was because they wanted independence or the UEG wasn’t helping them out as much as the inner colonies. Then there’s the interplanetary wars in our solar system.(22nd century to the 23rd) thats was because fascist and communist started fighting for control over land claims resources ect. The UEG came together made the unsc and fought them both to keep the solar system from destroying its self. It’s pretty cool if u look at it