Can Robust RB Work in 2024 | Mid 1st Round Draft Strategy | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice
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- čas přidán 27. 06. 2024
- Can Robust RB Work in 2024 | Mid 1st Round Draft Strategy | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice
In today's episode we have the 3rd part in a new 4 part draft strategy series! We'll be taking a look at a draft strategy study I conducted this offseason that analyzed over 2,000,000 teams to determine how you build an optimal team! Today, we take a look at strategy from a mid to late first round pick.
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I’m a fantasy football boomer. Been playing for over 20 years now. Robust was the standard back then when there was true workhorse guys all around. Frank Gore, Jamal Lewis, Shaun Alexander to name a few. But most leagues were standard (boo) scoring, so RBs had a bit more value even with scoring format. The NFL has changed to a pass heavy league. Offenses want efficiency and big plays vs the “grind it out” style of the past. Robust RB CAN i repeat CAN work but you have to get very lucky threading the needle of consistent production and year long health from those early pick RBs AND find value at WR to win that way. I typically like hero RB because it allows a more flexible draft. Don’t feel like I’m digging through the dumpster for a RB the whole time and can fill out my roster with value picks. The RB 2 will come and I pray my “hero” stays healthy.
1000% agree.
Robust RB is an outdated strategy that was relevant in the days of workhorse running backs.
I find it's used mostly by people that haven't adapted to the modern norms in fantasy.
With all the split backfields...
You can find so much value in RB from round 5 and on.
@@dennybasens2416 yessir. There is value to be had later in the draft and there is ALWAYS RBs that come out of nowhere so being active and aggressive on the waiver wire can pay off big.
It really comes down to your top picks staying healthy. And if you draft receivers early then their Qb’s must stay healthy too. The depth of good running backs are thin while the wr’s are much deeper. Making too rb’s more valuable.
The health seems to be the biggest issues I've had with going RB heavy. Can it work, obviously... But it seems the moon, sun and stars have to align with injuries for it to work whereas solidifying all other positions that are just flat out less likely to have injuries seems a more consistent way to get into the big dance at the end of the season. The best teams I've ever had, I seemed to find starting RBs on the waiver early in the season or drafted top handcuffs and sure enough those starters somebody else spent a top pick on got injured
Yeah but because there is so much throwing, there are always many wr's that are fantasy viable. If I do hero rb, then the 2nd rb I take you have to grab the cuff, and I hate drafting cuffs.
Nick may be my favorite FF youtuber. I just dig the fact that he is a one man show, not alot of outside influence in his strategy. It's just more my style.
What I don’t understand is when you say some people are taken. I am in a 10-team half ppr and also a 12-team ppr and Henry is gone mid second every single mock. No way he makes it to 3
I been in this game since 1987. Robust rb will never go out of style just have to hit the right picks
I like pairing a guy like Breece who has such a high ceiling with a Henry who will always give you consistent volume, then if an Achane falls to you , that's a team that can blow people out.
@@rollotomassi4768I agree with you 💯, been playing for 15-20yrs and RB heavy still rules if you can land 3 workhorses.
Playing the lottery will never go out of style. Just gotta pick the right numbers
Wise words unc💯🔥
Three guarantees in life: Death. Taxes. and FFA carrying me to the championship
Amen!
Whats ffa
@MaclaneBlock you don't belong here! Jk it means fantasy football advice. (The channels name)
@@ryanmatzner7757 oh lmao😂😂 cheers mate
Nick I’ve been watching your videos for years…. These strategy videos are some of your best. Love integrating the research data with the draft strategy. There is nothing else like this anywhere in the industry. Keep up the great work!!!
Good video. It'll be interesting if I find myself liking your 11/12 position team as much as top 5 pick teams. I feel like it gets real gross real fast with so much reaching necessary.
There are so many question marks at RB, I’m constantly going 2 early and 2 later…
There only 5-7 guarantees this year
You can get great value at receiver late, Pickens, C Watson, even J Palmer real late, a lot of guys that can function as a 2
Taking your 2nd RB 4th is not heavy RB…
I think you should always have 2 RBs… if you have 2 starters you don’t need a handcuff… Id rather have 2 guys that can replace someone who gets hurt or inst performing… RB is a tricky position
But also I go one QB, TE, DEF and kicker… and fill my bench with skill players QBs gonna play the entire season, and I often rotate out DEF and K
It always sorts itself out, you drop the guys who don’t perform after a 3 or so weeks and address areas of need… I had Terry last year, but picked up Puca after his big game for D Johnson
Thanks!
Everybody goes into the draft with a plan until they get punched in the mouth
Then panic draft butker in the 3rd round 😂
Been able to get some good squads with robust RB: hall/bijan followed by kyren and then Henry just feels good.
For me, I'm liking the Hero RB team more although having a rookie as my WR1 would scare me a little. TBH, I'd probably go with a more established vet where you got MHJ, although I do think he'll be an exceptional player it's just so rare that rookie WRs come in a light it up their first years... VERY good stuff though man, this will really get me looking at potentially going hero RB depending on the draft position I draw. Really appreciate this type of content.
If you had to make a decision on who to start in the FLEX between JT and MHJ, who do you go with? I think it's obviously JT.
Harrison's price tag is insanely high...
But when it comes to Taylor...
He's been in the league four years. One of those years has been great. Three have been disappointing.
If Richardson is healthy, he's cutting into Taylor's touchdown upside
@dennybasens2416 Taylor isn't without risk- he's a running back- but when healthy, he's far more valuable than Harrison. I'm not worried about Richardson. Yes, he will take some TDs, but they will score more TDs overall if both of them stay healthy and productive, so JT will still get his share.
On a one week sample it’s likely JT. The question is, who do you feel confident in producing that way for the entire season, and also how that pick impacts who you take later
@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA Sure, but it's also about upside. JT is more likely to get hurt, but Harrison could get hurt too. JT could be the No. 1 player in fantasy. There's no way Harrison will even be Top 5, likely not Top 12. JT v. Harrison is probably a bad example, because it's a no contest in my mind, but random Round 2 RB that is the clear bellcow for their team v. random Round 2 WR who is the clear No. 1 option in the passing attack on his team and I think it's still the RB. The RB likely has Top 5ish potential that the WR doesn't and the relative scarcity at the positions means that you're far more likely to find a WR that can produce as well as that Round 2 WR later in the draft than you are to find a RB that can produce as well as that Round 2 RB later in the draft. Plus, you're more likely to suffer injuries at RB, so you need to have high-end depth there. If you go Breece Hall, WR, WR, Ken Walker... Benson... Doodle, and then Hall gets hurt, you're likely screwed.
@@chrisclark2747 I think a better comparison is someone like Nico or Olave vs Achane. I doubt any of those 3 finish top 5 and all come with question marks
I love to go heavy on RB's early, and find excellent WR's late
While I think this video does a great job at looking at the early RB strategies in the 7/8th pick. I’d love to see you do a similar video but instead none of the first 3 RBs are available in round 1, and the options in round 2 don’t look great either. How would you tackle this position starting WR/WR? Appreciate it!
The back half of the first round is the way to go this year. I find late 2nd round pick I'm tempted to go Josh Allen cause I don't trust anyone.
N 10yrs I’ve went RB heavy all but 1 yr, been n ship all 10yrs but last year when I went wide receiver heavy to start draft i finished 6-10 but got into playoffs on points. Had second most points behind guy that lost 1 game all season but took him out first round then went on to win my 8th ship and $5k.
Should you not have re-evaluated your "robust" round 8 selection, since the format is 2RB and you have 3 through 7 rounds? Hollywood at the 8.06 and Dowdle at 10.06 is a better match to the build. This way you keep a similar player selection while showing how to adjust to each strategy.
Hey Nick, looking at the banner note about you being top 3 in ranking accuracy within the industry. Can’t say I’m surprised first of all! I watch a decent amount of these fantasy channels and always wonder how everyones different predictions shape up after the season. Is there any way I could access that info about the accuracy of different analysts?
Search for it on X. FantasyPros posts about it each year so you should be able to find it. Although I think their new rankings will come out some time in the next 2 weeks so maybe just keep an eye on their account for that
Nick, will you also do a Zero RB build?
Non PPR league, only keep 2. CMC, JT, Gibbs
I like dell too
Unique scenario here, I’m keeping JT in the 8th round full PPR 10 team league drafting 5th. Thinking draft Breece in Rd 1 to have him and JT. How would you draft in between rnd 2-7? Would you take another RB or get 3WR, TE &QB in those rounds?
If you’re able to start off JT and Breece then they’re absolutely hammering WR/TE/QB over the next 5-6 rounds. Get those positions as strong as possible to pair with those two RBs. No need to invest more early at RB if you have 2 top 7 options already
Robust RB … iMO… is less about taking RBs and more about manipulating the draft… going heavy on RBs early will create a deficit at the position and will cause other managers to step out of their comfort zones.. creating opportunities by dominating a position In the draft
Yeah, the robust looks better to me but I'm still going hero RB
Dj moore in the first round? 😂
Pure insanity
Please bot draft for one of the guys in my league.
Why do you love Tank Dell so much? Yes he looked good after his rookie year. But how good is he going to be with Collins and now Diggs there?
Dell has great chemistry with Stroud and he is the best Texans WR in terms of value. Collins and Diggs usually go at least a round before him
This series is interesting, but I think what's missing is an analysis of why any of these strategies has an advantage over the others. In other words, why go hero RB over robust RB over zero RB. What's the thinking?
Really just comes down to value honestly. As I said, 2 RBs in the first 5 is optimal and none of those builds do that. So you’d deviate to those other ones when value presents itself. Among those 3 Hero has a strong championship rate, though some years Robust RB has dominated
LOL@ Deebo.
I get burned every year I do robust RB
Same here. Literally the worst strategy.
Every year there are RB1s like kyren williams that show up from the waiver wire. No reason to use three early round picks on a position with a high injury and high bust rate
I win every year I go robust 🤷
@@gardockis.playgroundno you don't
You can be a sheep all you want 😅
You're are either taking the wrong rbs or they get hurt and you don't have their handcuff. Wr is the least important position to draft
I LIKE ROBUST RB. Better Bench Talent that could be league winners.
Especially in a 10 team league, you can always find a wr . If you have a rb injury and no depth, it's tough.
Did you even realize the mhj kyler stack?
Pickens is a steal right now
Arthur Smith my friend. You've been warned.
I still have a feeling they’ll add another WR
@@dennybasens2416 AS was a terrible head coach in Atlanta true but he was a great coordinator in Tennessee. He helped A.J. Brown break out.
@@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA obviously if they bring in a stud like Aiyuk my opinion of him will have to change. Until then I think he’s a great value to say the very least.
Is there any chance on doing this draft one more time.
But with a six point throwing QB scoring.
This is interesting but fundamentally flawed, because your greatest percentage of winning always comes on striking on those League winners.
AND.... market value variances
24- WR is high (despise abundance...?l
20-23 RBs mostly higher
B4 2020, QBs had some value.
Leauge winners are anomalies, (yet discernible) . I think what your data shows us are the Tendencies for any position to manifest those League winners. But constructing a formula is fundamentally misleading. What, obviously, we hope to try to discern is how to identify the league winners, (ie good system, talent, value, Lord willing) but getting too caught up in the formula IE RB early, WR early etcetera, is misleading.
For instance: breakout years for
23- Puca &KW
21-22¿ ^T-Hill ,Chase ,JJ
20-21¿- Kupp -Eckler-JT
19- Lamar
18'- CMC, James Conner
24? Good vaultes at QBs: Redskins Coltz, ⚡️ ⚡️, & Seagals.
RB values are here in '24 too.
I.e. Seagals , ⚡️ ⚡️& King Henry 🤴,
I’ve gone WR,WR,WR in past three drafts and have had much success.
I've been doing it since 2014, was being laughed at back then, but after much success since then those laughs turned to tears lol
Last year let's say you went CMC, JT, Gibbs, Mostart, Achane.... I can fill in the blacks with that RB core. But I'm not sure it's enough.
Racist 🤣
Not robust rb at all
It better not. Y’all MFers keep force feeding zero RB to me every year that I finally drafted every BB and dynasty draft WR heavy 😂
Best Ball and dynasty should definitely be WR heavy. For redraft it’s when RB gets pushed up
Robust is the best. Wr are the easiest position to find in fa. Thus the least important position. Rb the most important. Hardest position to find. Not debatable. And the ppl that say rb get hurt, wr get hurt all the time too. Nothings a guarantee. A lot of the time ppl take the wrong rb early because they listen to so called experts.
Talk about living in the past lol
He literally did a study that proved it is not
Wow!...that is so wrong i don't even know what to say.
Played since 2003 probably before you was born pal
Wrong again, must be your thing.
Go robust....YOU will bust
Kyren definitely gave this guy PTSD😂 he literally drafts 0 Kyren must have dropped 30 on his head in the ship.
Kyren actually won me my dynasty league