Chapter 1.3: Where reasoning goes wrong
Vložit
- čas přidán 26. 09. 2017
- This video is part of the series: 'The Philosophy of the Humanities' which you can find here • Philosophy of the Huma...
For more videos on Philosophy by Victor Gijsbers go to:
/ @victorgijsbers
Intromusic: "Styley" by Gorowski (www.wmrecordings.com/tag/gorow...)
The chance of the youtube algorithm sending this to someone's feed is "ONE IN A MILLION"
The number of likes you have got so far, sets a probable correlation to your proposition, I am tempted to reduce and simplify the causation to a set of complex and excellent system, devised by set of exceptionally smart and talented people with diverse set of motivation on a platform of favorable settings and time. A system which intentionally and/or unintentionally, accidentally and on purpose appears to be manipulating people against their collective short and long term interest. Yet it is an opinion inducted from very limited sample of knowledge gained through popular media, which is also marked driven, makes the chances of its completeness if not correctness ‘ONE IN A MILLION’.
I personally searched the topic, true!
Andre Hazes - usually best enjoyed in hazes of smoke.
I like the examples you use, they are very helpful. Thank you!
Very nice shirt.
Ok. Apparently, your reasoning went wrong somewhere.
Aesthetics is metaphysical
Classic scientist apparel
Hits blunt:
Correlation is correlated with synchronicity
Synchronicity is caused by correlation
🤤
Great video series, really, I´am glad that i stumbled upon this playlist. And your example are really good ones btw. Hope to see more videos in future.
i feel like im doing my future internet arguments a favour by watching these lol
These are some of the most helpful and well-explained videos about filosophy I’ve found on CZcams.
This video series is must for every science student regardless of their philosophy course/exam
Confirmation Bias appears
*Philosophers smiling nervously in corner*
take a look at ways when human reasoning goes wrong; avoid making these errors; (a) confirmation bias; error of reasoning we do daily; a tendency to collect evidence that supports our believes and a tendency to ignore things that could seriously challenge our believes; always interpreting things in such a way that fits your opinion or prejudice or presuppositions about something; confirmation bias diminishes quality of literary interpretations; so overcome confirmation bias and be attentive to evidence that might undercut your point of view; (b) confusion of correlation with causation; correlation when two types of events tend to happen together; causation when there is a relation between causes and effects; correlation does not necessary imply causation; very hard to prove causation, especially true in disciplines like history where you can not do experiments; (c) probabilities; need to know all your probabilities; the fact that an hypothesis is unlikely does not mean that it is false. so think through whether the alternative might be even more unlikely.
So you were drinking with a friend yesterday, and you said just mention something, anything, and I will squeeze it in my lecture on youtube tomorrow, and he said how about Andre Hazes and you said no problem mate consider it done.
He is Dutch. Hazes is Dutch. So, he mentions it. Fits very well with the context.
This guy explained so well in all of his videos
Thank you so much.
Very helpful video series.
Correlation confused with causation is one of my pet peeves. The main stream press likes to do this in the US. This weeks confusion: People who get their groceries delivered have a higher rate of covid -19. Another one: People who do crossword puzzles have a lower rate of dementia therefore doing crosswords prevents dementia.
Very true. My father loves crossword puzzles. He’s 97 and has a better memory than mine.
one of the coolest guy on youtube and in my feed
I learn really hard all the time
I'm so turned on by knowledge.
This is simply awesome !!!
Thank you for this video it enlightens me and helps me a lot about my subject Logic 😍😍
Great explanation
Thanks a million
Thank you so much!
Great lecture..thank you.
Good presenter.
thank you!
is his shirt made of scout badges? great vid btw, ur attitude makes these hard subjects easy to digest
I learn this really hard
All the logic upload here... I like this class this class they are very helpful...
Gonna get me next time that Charles Dickens Hair cut and combine it with one of your shirts haha
Great video. Even better shirt.
A great presentation, although I thought it missed an opportunity to further demonstrate the fallacy of correlation as causation by posing that possibility that not only might other factors (or none) connect unemployment to facism, but, it might equally be the case that facism causes unemployment - should we wish to interpret the data in this way.
I think the nurse case was interesting too, which essentially predicts that given that there are X million nurses in the world, there are Y many individual (and innocent) nurses on shift this afternoon defying the odds by being on Z many shifts when extremely unlikely things have happened.
Great vid!
Great vid
Hazes? Gotta watch this.
"learning hard" is an interesting word usage I've never heard before. In my culture studying is what we do hard and learning is the result of studying.
I think it’s because he’s Dutch and the Dutch verb ‘leren’ (learning) often gets used as ‘studying’, whereas the verb ‘studeren’ (technically ‘studying’) gets used more as ‘attending university’, so he basically means studying hard ^^
@@athosaegon Very interesting. Thank you for sharing.
Great.
you just saved me from failing......
Good explanation
I tend to think scholars have a huge bias to language being more real than it actually is.
In example of hazaz and smoking. why hazaz music not considered as cause . If you can explain what is cause. Will be helpful. Great videos really appreciate thanku.
Because you cannot prove that listening to Hazaz will cause you to smoke
Here's a correlation. There is a 97.8% correlation between McDonald's global revenue and the value of U.S. exports of non-edible fishery products. That is at least between the years 2005 and 2013. Although the trend is not known or tracked after that point,.. at least to my knowledge. Credit to Spurious correlations, Tyler Vigen 2015.
Thank you so much for it's help me a lot...Ging Azara Vlog here.
谢谢！
thanks
Not really convinced with this example of Lucy, the probability of a nurse to kill 7 patients got nothing to do with the crime itself, by this logic, every criminal is granted release as what are the odds of having a serial killer among us after all?
True. The argument un favour of lucy the nurse was that probability of serial killer nurse is low hence unlikely that lucy is a serial killer is not good argument i think, rather than correlating profession and homicide, they should focus on motive, mental health etc. But what evidence he overlooked or did not consider was probability of natural deaths total 7 of them was way more unlikely and hence more likely that she killed all of them.
I need this shirt! I do!!!
Hi sir, is scarcity the causation of choice or just the correlation ?
You need more information to attempt to make that conclusion.
*That shirt!*
but what about those who listen to hazes and then as a result, smoke? [ many ]
Another probability issue is the the 1000 sided die example. If you throw this die, the chance of getting 325 is 1 in 1000 - a low probability. If you throw it a trillion times, it would be surprising if you didn't get 325 at some point. I would hope that the chance of a train signal being green when it should be red isa lot less than a million to one given the number of signals changing in the Netherlands every year!
Gaaf shirt bro
Is it logical to induce that this guy looks like how Jesus would have looked, had Jesus worn glasses and polka dots? Either way, great videos. Thanks for making them.
10/10 shirt
I'm pretty sure you made the same probability error when referring to the train drivers mistakes.
Supposing the train drivers make more mistakes, this doesn't necessarily follow that the mistakes will affect his driving.
And as a result, even those who make mistakes won't necessarily reflect in train accidents as they may never lead to collisions.
Isn't this guy a band member of Creedence Clearwater Revival?
Cool shirt.
Landlord = Next month I'm gonna need to raise your rent, people are paying a lot more in this part of town.
Me = Yeah, sure, your logic "seems" completely confirmation bias free.
:(
Your vids are super good, but, your shirt is correlated with 1970
Not quite right if the flat mate said im really sorry i have nt been buying loo roll i see mistake i will start buying loo roll in the future; that would or should redeem the matter.
S o your argument is not logical Mr Leiden.!!
I agree though there is the tendancy you mention.
He should use William Lane Craig as an example.
André Hazes is the best singer of the Netherlands
The probability argument here is wrong. It is the same sort of fallacy that is being criticized. The issue is not needing to know a second probability it is using the probability of B given A (that a malfunction might occur and cause an accident) when you should be using the probability of A given B (what is the chance if an accident has occurred that a malfunction has happened). It is even more apparent in the court case, where this kind of poor understanding is why people get convicted. A disappointing example that lets down an otherwise good series.
You make a better video then
There's a correlation between education and the religiosity of a person. Generally, the more educated a person is, the less likely they will hold the belief that God exists.
Are you are saying that uneducated people believe in God therefore you believe in God?
@@davidgustafson-td6ru yes and no I don't believe in God. I'm an atheist.
I wish he was a handsome guy, then this would be perfect! 7/10
Why tf am I watching this
Wow , people who believe lockdowns and masks will save lives during a viral outbreak need to watch this.
Unemployment does cause increasing fascism. How can you argue it does not. Right wing ideologies portrait grandiose images and glorifies nations and their history and tells them they are priviledged and superior. Unemployed people (if we will assume they are not unemployed by choice and need jobs) will be prone to listening to people who promise them jobs and their reasoning. Some people may agree with what fascist leaders say about them and how amazing they are some people may not. As long as some people agree that counts as causation. It does not have to be absolute.
Also from the previous video about the person's name. You do NOT know if the name and life expectancy are relevant or not. You can't say we know it is not relevant. It may be well relevant.
Why using these arguments with ambiguous certainity while you can use perfectly valid and certain arguments with tossing coins or rolling dice. But again even they are not certain since you do not know if the weight or color of the dice you roll has any effect on how you roll them and how you roll them has no effect on how they land.
What the research on reasoning shows is that confirmation bias is a feature of reasoning, not a bug. Because we evolved to solve problems in groups. Each of us puts forward our strongest case, and *the group* debates the merits. Which is exactly how scholarship works.
See Mercier, Hugo & Sperber, Dan. (2011). "Why Do Humans Reason. Arguments for an Argumentative Theory." Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 34: 57 - 111. doi:10.1017/S0140525X10000968.
and (2017) The Enigma of Reason: A New Theory of Human Understanding. Allen Lane
So majority dictates truth? elaborate a year later
Confirmation Bias: I will call it advocacy approach which is very
useful in revealing hidden side of problems. No scientist think that this
approach means they are biased but a way to dig deeper more motivated. But at
the end of the day and if they need to testimony on that problem they would not
go beyond knowledge uncertainty.