The Future of the Submarine - Emerging Threats, Sensors & Transparent Oceans
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- čas přidán 1. 06. 2024
- In some respects, advanced submarines are a kind final boss of sorts in the world of naval warfare. Stealthy and well armed, for many nations these resource intensive platforms have underpinned naval strategy and nuclear deterrence for years. Investments in submarines and their associated industrial bases have been on the rise in countries like the USA and PRC for years, and we've seen new powers either obtain or seek to obtain nuclear submarine capability.
But much of the value of the submarine comes from the assumption that submerging brings stealth. And with new or predicted technological developments, some are predicting that in coming years or decades, that assumption may no longer hold true.
So today, we look at submarines, some of the technologies that might threaten them, and ask what the future might bring for these underwater hunters.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Relevant Reading/sourcing:
Bradbury, Bainbridge, ,Daniell, Anne-Marie Grisogono, Nabavi, Stuchbery, Vacca, Vella & Williams - Transparent Oceans? The Coming SSBN Counter-Detection Task May Be Insuperable
nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites...
Bradbury, Grisogono, Williams & Vella in the Strategist on the above
www.aspistrategist.org.au/adv...
Brixey-Williams - Prospects for game-changers in submarine-detection technology
www.aspistrategist.org.au/pro...
The Future of the Undersea Deterrent: A Global Survey
nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/publi...
Evan Lisman - Non-Acoustic Submarine Detection 2019
ontheradar.csis.org/issue-bri...
CRS - Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress
sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R4112...
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaw...
Andrew Davies - Submarines: does Moore mean less?www.aspistrategist.org.au/sub...
The Atlantic - Where the Whale Things Are
www.theatlantic.com/science/a...
Submarines vs surface ships in wargames
www.afr.com/companies/manufac...
• Australian Sub nearly ...
www.popularmechanics.com/mili...
ICESat-2 website
icesat-2.gsfc.nasa.gov/space-...
Squadron Leader Wren & Squadron Leader May - Detection of Submerged Vessels Using Remote Sensing Techniques (1997 ADFJ)
nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/slbm/d...
Reporting on Chinese detection innovations
navalinstitute.com.au/china-s...
Reporting on Indian SLBM test
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1...
Wake Detection images, reporting and solicitations (incomplete)
www.forbes.com/sites/davidham...
Featured Guardian article
www.theguardian.com/australia...
Navy Lookout - Killing submarines by drone
www.navylookout.com/killing-s...
USNI News - Sonar equipped drone fleets could be key to future submarine warfare
news.usni.org/2020/03/09/sona...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:05 - What Am I Talking About?
00:01:34 - What Am I Not Talking About
00:01:50 - History
00:11:49 - What Makes A Submarine?
00:24:08 - Emutopia & Kiwiland
00:28:12 - The Economics
00:34:42 - Vulnerabilities
00:50:03 - Countermeasures And Challenges
00:52:40 - The Submarine Fights Back
00:53:34 - If Not The Submarine
01:00:01 - What Next?
01:01:51 - Channel Update
I have tried to keep the number of bad jokes to a minimum - this is a serious deep dive.
More seriously, this isn't the first time we've seen predictions of the submarine's upcoming demise, and thus far they've continued to dominate despite each technological change thrown at them. That said, there are a wide array of developments on the horizon, and they may force submarine forces the world over to adapt to survive or thrive.
Hope you all enjoy, and I'll be back with you again next week
Bad jokes won't sink this video, we always love your deep dives!
Most submariners would've preferred if you packed in more puns
Gaming channel doesn't even get a mention any more? 😢
@@positroll7870 I really want to get it going again, last few weeks just haven't allowed me to do so.
the tank is dead, buy more drones
the boat is dead, buy more drones
the helicopter is dead, buy more drones
the submarine is dead, buy more drones
the 5th-generation fighter is dead, buy more drones...
subs have a spot in the arsenal, just like everything else, and will keep doing it well
You can't start a Sunday without a australian man explaining military logistics and economics
I have simply started referring to it as "Perun Day," and I wish my similarly inclined friends a happy one.
Sunday has 20 minutes to go in Eastern Australia
As an Australian I listen to perun as I go to sleep
Sunday ended nearly an hour ago for me
I would feel like the whole day was thrown out of whack if I skipped this. I need a little smart humor on a Sunday.
When I really need a giggle, I go back and listen to the Poland re-armament or Bundeswehr videos !
'...where Poland turned into the guy who shows up at an arms expo and when asked what he is interested in , he says "Yes" !!'
nor would we want to.
There are two types of warships. Submarines and targets.
Naval mines: "You're a target, he's a target, everyone's a target!"
And you know what, the submariners probably have a point, even if its not perfectly clear cut. ASW is hard.
Could argue it's not mutually exclusive - there are submarines out there that are loud and vulnerable enough that they absolutely could count as targets for some of the more modern attack boats?
You beat me to it...
My grandfather was a P2-V and P-3 pilot and, later, an ASW planning expert for the USN and the Joint Chiefs, and even he pretty much agreed with that.
@@PerunAU
Sure, but that's one of those 'an exception that proves the rule' kinda things. (which is an annoying cliché, but...)
It's just a saying, I suppose.
There are two kinds of submarines - quiet ones and noisy ones. Nuclear powered subs are noisy because the energy source needs constant water flow to keep cool, and water pumps are noisy.
I was working with the Singapore university remote sensing lab back in the 90s, and there was an Australian researcher who was studying the surface characteristics of undersea current flows (ocean floor currents). His software was actually detecting the ocean surface "choppiness", based on how it scattered the SAR signal. But he was annoyed that his software kept picking up spurious flows across various parts of the ocean where there weren't any undersea features that would lead to sea floor currents. Finally one of his American compatriots leaned over and said, "Shhh. Those are submarines."
OMG that is an AMAZING story to be able to tell- especially here where you know the audience is going to appreciate the hell out of it!!! Also, as a fellow Aussie, I love the researcher’s obliviousness 😂
Ah yes, time to talk about the future of the Moskva after her promotion to submarine
Salamanders pfp?
Sublittoral occupation force
Give them credit though....
The technology required for an underwater smoke screen must be impressive.
OMG, legendary observation!
It is now being used for conservation and will become an artificial coral reef. The Russians seem to care a lot about nature conservation, as this is not the first ship to be sent to the bottom of the sea.
We need a 1 hour PowerPoint on how Perun optimizes his workflow scheduling & what fuels him - materially and beyond. ❤️
That and what he drinks, if anything- like coffee, or... Whatever else
@@thericepotato5847At this point I'd hope he has a guy for his editing or at least his research
@@maltheri9833 is the guy's name cocaine? Hell yeah
hes snorting a printed out and shredded excel sheet each day
@@maltheri9833 Tex confirmed on a Black Pants Legion video for Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnought that his group helps Perun do at least some research.
“Practical submarines only started to surface”. Clever pun!
that line was gold
Well it was the start of a deep dive ...
to be fair it feels like you have mist the first part, where humans have been making ship the submerge since the first boats. and so they only became 'practical submarine when they stated to surface'
I get irrationally excited for this channel each sunday
It's a Club,lol
I was just thinking the same thing 😅
The hype is entirely rational gents.
same
There's nothing irrational about it.
😁
It's crazy to think it's been 2 years since I saw your first military PowerPoint. It's also crazy to see just how much your presentations have improved in that time.
You really do an outstanding job with these presentations.
You're making me think back to the first ones that were done using a headset microphone and basically no sound editing.
If nothing else, I hope these sound better now!
Do you just mean the audio quality, or would you say other things have also improved?
@@PerunAUremember when you were doing terra invicta content before then?
it was one of the most pleasant surprises i've had when you switched to your current content!
@@PerunAU the sound quality of your videos has definitely gone way up since the start. I also feel like your slide compositions have gotten a lot better in more subtle ways. You have this really nice blur transition between the image and text segments on some of your slides. With that there is also how you split the slides between the two in a way that allows both the image and the text to pull attention without overshadowing the other. I believe at the beginning you also more often copy pasted tables and graphs into your slides where now I notice that there are a lot more figures that are made to fit with the visual style you have developed for these slide shows.
I also want to say that your organization in these videos has gotten better, though sleep deprived brain can't come up with a specific example on that front.
Yeah.
"All bling no basics" was my first Perun video.
Didn't miss a single one since then.
Wearing aviators inside a nuclear submarine is such a power move, holy hell.
😎
it's to keep the eyes safe from dangerous radiation
Gigachad apparel.
It's to make you look good to all the women you're suddenly grinding on in the passageway instead of you buddies. Yep, it thing now, lol. And some of the women won't even be women, wtf.
@@Confessor555 LoL, I don't think think they have any women on Russian boats! Except Dmitry when he's been on the vodka is feeling festive...
Perun needs to make a military logistics simulation wargame centered around the struggle between Kiwiland and Emutopia.
It could even be done visually similar to Papers, Please: you receive some papers, make procurement decisions, possibly secretly nudging the outcome towards one of the many possible game endings, Perun-style jokes are produced as a byproduct.
I'd buy that for a dollar!
@@sgtbaker2072 I'd buy that for $10
When he dies that, I hear china and Taiwan, am I alone in that thought?
I think it's actually a joke about Australia and New Zealand, who perpetually make fun of each other despite being metaphorically joined at the hip. But it is a great way to illustrate the Taiwan issue, or any struggle between disproportionate nations.
Great episode! As a retired submariner I try to follow the developments in the world I am very familiar with. Admittedly, it isn't as familiar as it once was. Submarines and detection systems are a quantum leap ahead of what they were in the years I spent sitting in sonar hunting 'bad guys (77'-95'). In fact I wonder if sonar itself is soon to be obsolete. Or at best, you won't be listening for the sound of a submarine but rather the hole in the ocean where there is no sound. We did have some sneaky little tricks to find those 'bad guys'. We often would look in areas of heavy biologic activity. Something stirred up those fish and hiding in a noisy area was a common strategy. Lumbering old merchants were also suspect as a boomer could use that high noise field as cover while said merchant transited through their patrol box. But the real trick was to catch them doing something that made just the wee tiny noise that only lasted a few seconds. Catch a 'bad guy' doing some housekeeping evolution and you basic had him by the short hairs. Guess that may not be true anymore.
Hooray!!! Sunday can start now!
G'day from Emutopia
By the time this has finished, it will be Monday down here
nice pp. It made me laugh because i am playing Stardew Walley while listening Perun.
And for me, it can end. Always a good feeling when the upload works and YT lets me click that publish button.
@@PerunAU 💗💗💗💗💗💗
One of my co-workers used to serve on a submarine. One thing in particular that was very surprising is learning that shrimp are very noisy underwater.
so instead of a smokescreen, you would deploy a shrimp screen?
Shrimply unbelievable
We can neither confirm nor deny.
they be partyin' 🦐
@@diazinthno but for real someone needs to explain to me why this wouldn’t work 😂😂
This man's upload schedule is impressively regular.
I've kind of noticed that about guys who are (ex) military, you can set your watch to their upload schedules...meanwhile some of the video essayists I follow have upload schedules that can be measured in years.
@@kenon6968 Interesting correlation, it would make sense. Though I didn't know Perun had been a soldier.
Emutopia vs Kiwiland
The goose that lays the golden eggs
You mean the golden dollaridoos?
Really really big golden eggs.
@@phueal The fat flightless bird that lays the golden dollaridoos.
Never in my life have I been as excited for PowerPoints as Perun has made me 😂
The Mk14 was so hilariously bad, if Drachinifel hadn't already done so, i'd make a video about it.
The early Mk14 deserves all the videos and jokes made at it's expense
@@jlGenozzV Speaking of, i should still do a tier list of WW2 torpedos. The Mk14 family goes in F, the Long Lance is clear S tier material. Besides that?
@@Chrischi3TutorialLPs Honestly, I don't think the Long Lance can be rated higher than A. Just too dangerous to it's launching vessel between the pure oxygen and more shock-sensitive warhead making them all too liable to detonate if the launching vessel came under attack before it was in position to launch the torpedoes at an enemy.
Right at the top of A Class mind you because despite that flaw, it was an absolutely amazing advancement. But I'm honestly unsure if any torpedo in WW2 rates S Class because of the compromises and design decisions chosen even if we don't care about any post-WW2 technology effecting the chart. Basically a case of WW2 having all the technological developments needed to produce an S or even SS class torpedo but said developments were scattered across the various sides rather than concentrated in one place. Or whoever had the developments couldn't make use of them due to design culture, industrial difficulties or material limitations.
The big one off the top of my head would be that the Long Lance was given that warhead using a slightly more powerful explosive than TNT, despite it being much more shock sensitive. If they'd stuck with a TNT warhead despite the 7% loss in power (at least that's the number I've found) then I'd say it absolutely would be an S Class torpedo design because having 'just' the one flaw of the compressed oxygen system is more or less 'don't expect perfection in the real world'.
It wasn't bad. The US Navy was bad.
@@2paulcoyle Yeah it was bad?
The list of faults in the torpedo include, but are not limited to:
The magnetic detonator being poorly calibrated and sometimes going off at random
The contact detonator having nearly zero detonation chance if fired in a textbook attack
The depthkeeper malfunctioning and causing the torpedo to run deep due to poor placement
The gyroscopes sometimes locking up and causing the torpedo to run in circles
The main reason for these faults existing is that the torpedo hadn't actually been tested before the war's outbreak, in no small part because Congress decided that testing was too expensive.
Something I find annoying is that people frame discussions of a platform’s viability in terms of the capabilities of a sensor, weapon, etc. that might target it, ignoring that those systems need to be on platforms of their own, and will be targeted in turn.
I very much appreciate that you highlight that more capable weapons and sensors make submarines more dangerous too.
More importantly the question is not what weapons can target a platform, but what else can do the job of that platform better, cheaper, more reliably.
Everyone thinks tanks are obsolete because they get blown up ignoring that tanks were blown up on the first day of their deployment in ww1. It's not hard. Drop an artillery shell on them. And that is what we still do 100 years later. Drop artillery shells on them. The question is what can replace what tanks do? And there all other options in place of tanks get blown up by even more stuff than tanks can be.
In case of subs the question is not what can detect it, but what can replace its capabilities.
Am I crazy or do most of these sensors become obsolete if a submarine just hangs out under the sea ice right at the edge of open water, only to pop out to open water if they need to unleash their missiles?
@isaachenry5692 Not much difference between that and any missile silo, I guess it's more mobile...kinda - but we're still talking about a missile platform localised in one location
@@isaachenry5692 possibly but that is only relevant to ballistic missile submarines. Attack submarines need to operate where there targets are
@@isaachenry5692 If they reduce the search area from a globe spanning 2 dimensional area to a 1 dimensional line, even if it twists a bit, that'd be a roaring success.
Some deep material today. Thanks!
A DEEP DIVE EH!?
@@mercenarygundam1487 guys! there's a global #pundemic going on, your conduct is simply irresponsible!
The pun didnt land, it sank.
As long as there are “layers” in the oceans, detection will be difficult.
I’m proud to have helped build the USA Nuclear Subs back in the 1980’s.
A few are STILL in active service.
And plankton and currents and fish and rocks and wrecks -- the Argentinian sub ARA San Luis spent a lot of time around the Falklands during the Unpleasantness of 1982 sitting near the bottom nestled up to one of the many shipwrecks around the islands coasts. Despite being a diesel sub in shallow water it held off the ASW subject-matter experts of the Royal Navy and never even got a scratch on its rusty hull.
That Kiwiland flag goes hard!
I am unexpectedly *really* invested in the Emutopia/Kiwiland canon
this is what Minnesota could’ve been
@@YanBaoQin SAME LOL
Legit LOL'd at HMKS "Jonah Lomu".
For all the Americans out there, he was a freakishly dominant New Zealand Rugby player about 20 years ago
The flag was so popular it was banned from the flag referendum in case it won. Laser Kiwi ftw
"This boat has the means to end this hideous war, in a definitive and elegant manner"
Matias Torres
ONE MILLION LIVES!!!
A man of crisp.white.sheets culture I see.
Yarr it be me Captain Torres
@@dsdy1205 I was not expecting MaXor references here. I need to rewatch that video.
@@CircusJeanie2399Which video of his is this a reference to?
My skipper had a saying on fast boats. "We are the tip of the spear, and the spear strikes deepest. It is also the first to break, we shall strike hard." Basically, you get one shot, or your dead do your job right. EDIT: You are dead for the grammar nazi.
Grammar is your friend.
unironically sounds like quickscoping in videogames
Submarines are rogue DPS in games.
If you gain aggro, you die.
One heck of an analogy. Absolutely on point.
But it's a quick death. On my boat, we had dark humor discussions of what compartment and what piece of machinery we would get a last spank-off for a torpedo in the water or unrecoverable loss of buoyancy before the hull imploded.
Well shoot. Now that you reminded me about the Mark 14 torpedo, I have to watch Drachinifel's video all over again. Thanks Perun.
Drach deserves much respect as an authority within his focus, but Perun has gone above and beyond where many dare but few present accurately. I cannot fathom the amount of time spent on research between them.
Me when submarines:😍(I am from the city of Kiel, where the German U-Boots are built)
Let's have some tea and enjoy the powerpoint-man speaking ^w^
I enjoyed visiting in 2013. Winter in Europe is great. Greeting from Australia😅.
Perun’s washing machine going off every few minutes has truly become a staple of the channel at this point
Imagine an hour long PowerPoint presentation on defense economics being the highlight of your Sunday morning? As in, the thing that you look forward to all weekend and makes you get out of bed early on Sunday.
Gold Coast Australia checking in for Perun's report!
38:36 God tier acronym
I have been hospitaliced for almost 2 weeks, starting to crawl up the walls, thank you for distracting me from it for an hour! truly apriciated.
If you haven't seen Hypohistoricals work on the Falkland conflict, that should eat up another eight hours for you, it's fantastic stuff.
Hope you're on the mend and get out soon!
I for one look forward to the sequel about what submarines everyone has.
"They're all pressurized metal containers" overlooks the brilliant advances of OceanGate, which was neither metal nor, ultimately, pressurized.
the result of shopping at Ea-Nasir's Discount Carbon Fibre, among other cases of "disrupting" what were engineering safety standards, not business practices.
This is timely. Thailand just decided to continue it's submarine program with the Chinese diesels. Lemme explain :
We have had submarines before in the form of the Matchanu class subs, built in Japan before ww2. They were decommissioned after the war due to obsolescence and lacking spares. The Royal Thai Navy would attempt to procure submarines two more times without success. Fast forward to 2016, the military junta under Prayut Chan-O-Cha opened a bid for sub procurement. Many companies from all around the world submitted proposals but for the given budget, they could only offer two boats, except China. They offered us an irresistable deal, buy two get one free along with spare parts support for 8 years, and other weapon systems that the west wouldn't sell like smart mines, whatever those are supposed to be. So the government took out a loan for the program (thai government fiscal things, not a big deal).
The contract for one boat was signed with the Chinese Shipbuilding and Offshore company (CSOC), and the keel of the S-26T submarine for the RTN was signed. The S-26T is basically a Yuan with minor changes. A major problem occurred. CSOC did not get an export agreement from MTU, the German company who were to supply the diesels per the contract. And thus, work was stopped.The issue was brought to the RTN's attention in 2018, four days after paying the second installment of cash for the boat. Political hot potato ensued, and then covid hitso things went away for a bit. The Chinese offered the CHD620 to replace the MTU diesels which they couldn't get at this point, despite the current Thai PM going to Germany and talking to Olaf Scholz about it. The CHD620 is a Chinese designed and made diesel engine for submarines. It hasn't seen any use on subs other than on the Pakistani subs which they took delivery of in late April , so the RTN was sceptical about it. After the engine was certified by a 3rd party in about 2022, the RTN asked to send a delegation to double check the diesels. CSOC responded thus : "No, it's a waste of time.". There would be proposals to solve the issues periodically such as canceling it and getting a refund, changing the contract to a frigate or a few OPVs , or buying fertilizer (there being a shortage of fertilizer at the time due to the russo ukrainian war) but none of them went anywhere.
In the intervening time, the navy did funny things with the submarine budget, diverting part of it to buy the Landing Transport Ship HTMS Chang, part of the reasoning being for her to act as a submarine tender...for some reason., and started building support infrastructure for the subs. Then, they folded the frigate budget back into the submarine budget so now the frigate Bhumibol Adulyadej doesn't have a sister ship. Parliment did not pass a new budget for the second ship of the class, tentatively named the Anandamahidol after King Rama the 8th. And the government has had to pay interest on the loan amounting to 27mil USD.
After much political hot potato, the Defense minister took a flight to china to discuss the matter with CSOC. He came home empty handed it seems. Reps from CSOC came to negotiate with us between the 14th and 15th. On the 16th, the Defense Ministry announced that the submarine program shall continue with CSOC giving us 5mil USD worth of spares and training equipment. Delivery is to be expected in 2028.
This is one cursed procurement cycle.
Damn...that's messy!!
But one wholeass submarine for free?? How does the Chinese shipyard afford this?
@surajbiradar9827 I'm guessing the cost of a submarine is more than fully paid by the strategic implications of extending tendrils into a navy that operates in the south China sea
Too bad you didn't come to us Swedes like you did with the Gripen.
Our subs are made to be litoral, and would probably fit in quite well weaving around the Thai coastline.
Just have to upgrade the AC 😅
@@92Psyco Well I assumed the strategic and geopolitical factor but usually this is done by extending a line of credit or selling equipment at very easy installment structures. This is new
@@surajbiradar9827 The Chinese had to make an offer the Thais couldn't refuse. And then showed everyone why the Thais should have refused it.
I, absolutely, love that you used the Laser Kiwi flag.
Luckily I have already sub-scribed to this channel...
Boooooo
I sea what you did there...
"Finding and destroying a missile truck that is also underwater" That reminds me of the North Koran basing option of a shipping container at the bottom of a lake.
Or the aircraft carrier submarines from the japanese
Can we be certain it didn't just fall off the ship carrying it?
A thoroughly enjoy the way that you stop and analyze and don't just do quick takes. Waiting a few weeks for REAL analysis is worth every minute.
Honestly, the 'waiting until there is some more information available' approach seems much wiser for videos focused on analysis rather than providing information. Just my supportive 2 cents to feed the algorithm
Finally time to enjoy some slideshows
I would like to add, that enemy ships lost to unknown causes, were attributed to the USN submarine fleet. In reality, RAAF & US PBY Catalinas' extensive mining operations undoubtedly killed hundreds more ships than they're credited for.
@@karldubhe8619 They knew where the USN sub areas were & didn't mine them.
Ships lost by unknown reason being attributed to submarines would only be in Japanese records. The US sub patrol reports would have stated every time they spotted, engaged, hit and sank an enemy ship and its type. The panes dropping mines would also have mission briefings where their area would be stated.
All you need to do is read all of those reports for all combatants involved and cross reference them. That should also remove mistakes and over-claiming.
There is a video by the channel Gregs Airplanes called 'The most underrated airplane of ww2' he goes in depth about the catalina, long story short its really that, underrated
@maxpower3990 I agree that would make sense mate, but you'd be surprised. If you ever get the time & inclination, there's a great book called Black Cats, which goes into the mining mission. Same goes for the official US sinking stats from WWII.
@karldubhe8619 Sure, I'm wrong every day. I'd be more than happy to read any instance of an Allied WWII sub being hit or suspected of being hit by friendly mines, if you've got one.
Always love seeing my weekly dose of defence economics every Sunday
Underwater sea drones seem like a distinct possibility
Not just seem
More like are THE future of subsurface warfare and are arguably already reshaping the battlefield.
So much potential there it’s ridiculous. Literally the perfect use case for an autonomous drone.
Perun is my favorite drug.
Verify our range to target. One ping only.
Sean Connery's accent was a bit silly. Overall movie was pretty good.
Give me a ping, Vasily? One ping only, please.
Looking forward to more submarine videos. I think they're often overlooked, despite being such fascinating and unique pieces of military technology.
00:00 - 11:48
My god, that was incredible! A tour de force summary of the history of submarine development!! Admirably done, Perun, man!!
Perun, no pressure but we are all waiting for your video while making coffee
I’ve been waiting for this one. We’re a Navy family and have a submariner vet in the group. Thank you!!
29:33 the longer I look at this photo the funnier it becomes 😂
But its a great snapshot of the vibe at the time 😁
Give us some more arctic content! I, for one, loved it.
Didn't get as many views as usual, but I thought it was fascinating. I have no doubt that at some point in the future, the Arctic region is going to get a lot of attention.
Thank you Perun, I listen to you every Sunday as I cook dinner for the family, it's one of my favourite parts of the week!
You made the right call on the Kharkiv thing. I don't turn to you for breaking news, I like deep, reasoned analysis that is relevant to current events, but doesn't have to getting scoops on developing situations.
I really enjoyed listening to Jahara Matisek talking about Irregular Warfare on Silicon Curtain. I'd also like to hear your take on the topic one day.
OMG, the Kiwiland Standard is AWESOME! Laser eyes! I almost choked on my coffee @perun!!!
To quote RA2's Typhoon attack sub: Checking periscope.
Thanks again, subs 101 is normally a re-tread of the same old stuff. As usual, you greatly exceeded any expectations I had.
Sharks: the original 'cope cage" necessitator.
I think the most valuable kind of cope cage would be a contraption holding a mosquito net on top of open topped vehicle.
19:45 That photo is pretty interesting, it's a Seawolf Class Submarines acoustics.
Hahaha HMKS Jonah Lomu! Love it!
Love your weekly videos Perun. Well presented, researched, informative, interesting with a nice splash of humour. Keep up the great work.🙌
The best part of Sunday afternoon is waking up to a new Perun video (even though he makes them go live on Monday through international timezone tomfoolery).
Recently been obsessed with the Ohio class SSGN’s and the utility of conventionally armed submarines, this vid could not have come at a better time
SSNs will be key to containment strategy if China invades Taiwan. China is working on overland routes to get around this, but until then fast attack boats armed with Harpoons, Tomahawks and ADCAPs are the strategic fulcrum.
@@chrisstrawn4108We need cruise missile submarines more. We don’t have nearly enough fast attacks and their magazines are too shallow.
The Ohio SSGNs might not be around much longer; the Navy is looking to replace them with a larger number of the Block V Virginia-class boats with the Virginia Payload Module. Makes sense to me, there’s no guarantee that an SSGN will have time to launch all 154 missiles during a peer conflict, not to mention a relative lack of targets that would require that many Tomahawks, having fewer missiles on more submarines lets you have strike capability in multiple places at once; and it would allow crews and their boats to be cycled out more often, since the current SSGNs are on the same patrol schedule as the boomers, meaning long duration patrols with very few port calls. Besides, the VPM tubes can also replace their 7 Tomahawk cells with three tubes for hypersonic missiles if the mission requires it.
@@GrahamCStrouse Not having enough fast attack boats is a direct result of overinvesting into too-expensive nuclear attack submarines. At the end of the day, quantity has a quality all of it's own, and if you only invest in the high end systems, you don't have enough quantity.
@@Shaun_JonesI would say that the cost of nuclear submarines is a big problem: you just cannot produce enough of them. IMHO the US should look into conventionally powered cruise missiles carrying subs as well, especially since new Li-Pol batteries may allow to forgo AIP. Also, if they're gonna be considered more ships than subs - operate mostly under snorkel and with a friendly fleet, less reliant on stealth and more on active defenses, not replacement for Ohio, but for Ticonderogas.
You put most of the land attacking missiles on them, and load more AA onto the surface ships. Add little AA capabilities to the subs as well (e.g. Germans developed the Iris T version, which can be launched from subs at aerial targets). These submarines will still be way stealthier than even Zumvalts, while being way cheaper than nuclear underwater missile trucks. Additionally, they would need much smaller crews and be simpler, e.g. you may forgo water desalination and just get your fresh water from the friendly surface ships, while surfaced.
And even provided all these simplifications, they would still be able to switch to batteries, dive, and be potentially, even stealthier than SSBNs, albeit for a limited amount of time, but just enough to conduct a first strike.
The problem, though can be to keep up with the fleet.
I wonder, if gas turbines can work with a snorkel?
Detailed and informative 👌🏼
Great stuff Perun, as always.
@PerunAU busting out some absolute gems of puns in the first 2 minutes.
Seriously mate, if you ever decide to leave the defense economics industry, you have a bright future in stand-up.
What makes the photo of the reactor great isn't the mustaches or sunglasses worn inside, it's that they told the guy without a mustache that he wasn't cool enough to be in the photo, but he executed a high tier photo bomb to get in the picture behind everybody else.
Excellent work, as always.
Hope this one does well. Fascinating subject and presented expertly as always. Thanks for your continued efforts!
51:30
Dangerous assumption.
GER + NOR are working on sub launched anti aircraft missiles IDAS, should be ready for U212-CD.
BTW, stealth shaped double hull of U212-CD is designed to defeat enemy sensors.
Somehow sub launched anti aircraft missiles became a thing for all other navies since the French launched the Suffren class equipped with anti air missiles to down ASW helicopters and planes.
@@brunol-p_g8800 A major issue with submarine AA is that the success of the system lets the ASW side know that absolutely, yes, there is a submarine in the target area.
Geometric stealth on submarine is intended to defeat active sonar, the mechanism is more for less the same as to how geometric stealth on aircraft defeat radar.
It does not help with passive sound and other signature.
@@ianwhitchurch864You can’t logically call that a major issue when you consider the alternative, which is getting popped like a balloon by said ASW helicopter.
The only time those could and would be used is when the helicopter is almost on top of them.
And, generally if an ASW helicopter is up in the air and close to you, they are already certain there is a submarine in the area and probably also have a decent idea of where it’s at. Either that or they’re very lucky.
Here we go!!
Great presentation as usual!
Great episode as usual Perun
I recently read an MIT paper on WiFI signal disruption being used to train an AI on people in a room. First they combined cameras and people walking or posing in a room. They fed the AI the WiFi signal detection data at the same time as video feed. After sufficient training time, the scientists took away the video feed and asked the AI to represent the poses of people in the room as they changed positions. The AI totally nailed it. This is very easy to find via a Google search and there more coverage than just the MIT article.
That is some “Batman” level tech. Imagine police or military being able to track people (you) in the room you’re in just by detecting disruptions in the WiFi signal as you move around!
Not only is the ocean likely transparent by 2050, what you’re doing in the bathroom might be too!
Ye, it's actually a pretty old idea. I have to throw in there because I hate how everything buzzwords AI right now. The original tech did it with out "AI", I think something like 10 years ago.
Now all we have to do is alter reality to make it so radio waves can travel through water lol.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 pretty sure some do right? doesn't the navy use vlf and elf frequencies?
@@notsam498 VLF only goes 20-40m deep and that’s for one way communication. And ELF? What? ELF waves can only be generated by literal city sized antennas (the one China has is literally the size of NYC) and it would be damn near physically impossible to build an ELF receiver.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 I was reading that the navy operates possibly one currently at some atlantic facility. the definitely built several, I am not sure about the size of the antenna array. but keep in mind you never said how practical with the radio frequencies going through water. though 40m is pretty given the transmission range.
The Transparent Ocean is a bit of a misnomer, the ocean is not really one thing, its a dynamic system of ever changing temperature, density layers with multidirectional flows and acoustic characteristics... in terms of signal processing its always been a nightmare and will continue to be for some time... Small drone like subs that can act as remote sensors that switch to a torpedo when locating a target is probably the great change that is coming with the "Main" Sub being more like an underwater aircraft carrier/tender and possibly fully remote as well.
Thanks again Perun. Another riveting and well informed PowerPoint.
Yes! Please expand on these types of topics. Much appreciated.
In the future, we will all live in one and it will be a certain color.
I reckon it'll be colored blue
I am a submarine! A friendly little sub chugging along the ocean floor! Yes I love the water it is very nice!❤❤❤
Me every time I'm in the pool. 😁
@@ZeCroiSSanT950as a kid i loved diving and just barely puncturing the surface with my warer squirt gun, taking out 'targets' on the other end of the pool.
The extrem high standard of your videos that you create again and again and again is just awesome! Thank you so much for this excellent content!
It's like when your favorite band covers another of your favorite bands. Perun and H I Sutton.
Hi Perun
Bro got first
Hi Perun👋
@@owgdj how about we make it a contest to say "Hi" 1st?
hi perun
Hemlo Penru
Was worth listening to even just to hear the HMAS Rankin reference -- we went off to find that video and it was great to watch. Thanks for the reference Perun and we really liked this episode and analysis as well.
Great video really enjoyed it
I knew those damn Emus would be up to their usual shenanigans again. I know it is all to upset the global trade of lamb chops. I don't know why the super powers let them constantly get away with this behavior. #StandWithKiwiland #StopEmuAggression
The understanding in most military intelligence circles is that SSBNs stay close to home and are usually under an umbrella of local surface warships and aircraft most of the time. The British and French SSBNs stay in a million square kilometre box in deep water in the Bay of Biscay, the Russian SSBNs operate in the far north of the Arctic Ocean and just off the coast of the Sakhalin and Kuril islands and the US fleet operate near Hawaii and Pearl Harbor to cover the Pacific area and around Newfoundland for their Atlantic patrol area. There's no tactical or strategic benefit for them to go far from home given the published range of SSBN missiles.
Bastion strategy. Indian SSBN use Bay of Bengal as their bastion. Hemmed in by Indian peninsula on one side and Indian islands of Andaman and Nicobar on the other side, completely dominated by Indian Navy's Eastern fleet. Almost impossible for Chinese or Pakistanis to run ASW ops there.
I thought there was a strategic benefit at least at some points. If you want to have a decapitation or disarming strike ready, the missile subs need to close by their targets for less flight time. Get the flight time low enough, and there's the potential for the nukes to land before the opposition confirms the launch and responds, and then they lose command and control and/or their launchers so hopefully there's not a retaliatory strike...
Of course, this is a very dangerous seeming "benefit."
@@Warmagon Nearly all Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) today are solid-rocket propelled and that mean they are going to burn for a fixed time before they are exhausted. That means that either they go way up high before the warheads come down close to the launch point or they fly a flatter trajectory over a greater ground distance but in either case their ride to glory takes about the same time from launch to impact. Better to stay well away from hostile shores and ASW air cover when the launch order is given.
SSBNs are a retaliatory second-strike force in the main, a hidden assassin that can strike from an unknown location after hostilities have begun and your cities are dying. It's why two of the British Continuous At-Sea Deterrent SSBNs were named "Revenge" and "Vengeance".
An hour long video that kept me awake all throughout, well done mate on making this so interesting. Love your work. Subscribed and liked
Super-interesting! Thanks Perun. ❤️
Emutopia is at it again. Slava Kiwiland!
Itd be interesting to hear some about how Emutopia's emerging alliance with Aukustan will affect its balance with Kiwilandia.
Kiwiland was struck a strategic understanding with Elbonia. God help them.
at work. refreshing furiously waiting for the new Perun video to drop.
It's just not really Sunday until Perun uploads.
Man, Surcouf is such a weird ship. She carried a plane too, like some ace combat boss fight
It is the result of the naval treaty, all ships were restricted in tonnage, but submarines.
@@brunol-p_g8800
Oh sure, but even by treaty standards she’s weird.
So, Kiwiland and Emutopia flag patch merch?
I want them so bad now
Also, a Kiwiland v. Emutopia patch, the coldest of wars
Great video and am looking forward to any follow up videos you bring out. Thanks.
I very much enjoyed this weeks video and I'll be back next week, no matter what the subject is. That said: A complete breakdown of the current and future submarine picture would be popcorn worthy content!
“Blasting the Soviet anthem on repeat!”
Doing that from 1.000 meters of depth, would be quite the statement!
Alot of this I knew already, but getting to understand why there are people saying the oceans could be transparent was very interesting, and as I suspected the case for the obsolescence of the submarine is overblown. I think the main factor for the people pushing it is really that subs are very expensive and somewhat worthless in peacetime, which is the majority of time. So if you want to free up a few hundred billion dollars over the next decade you could point out that we haven't been using them anyway and they'll have no advantage in the future. This is a alot of truth mixed with alot of wishful thinking but it makes sense why people might end up in that camp. That said, if anything the West needs MORE subs not fewer, in a shooting war there is no substitute for subs.
Great work! Would love to see a continuation of this topic.
Consistently fascinating and thought provoking mate.
Well done. 👍👍
Regarding how ocean is huge, onceni heared that if submarine is 10 km away, you could detect only 50%. With 20km distance it drops only to 10%
Inverse square law. The farther an object is the more the sound disperses and the less of it you detect.