Recession at this point 'is a self-inflicted wound', says Duke's Campbell Harvey
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- čas přidán 2. 11. 2023
- Campbell Harvey, Duke University professor of finance, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, why he believes the central bank has overshot and should have stopped raising rates in January, the state of the economy, Treasury yields, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
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A flailing U.S. economy and elevated global tensions reduce the likelihood of prolonged inflation or higher long-term Treasury yields. All my focus right now is how to safeguard and improve my $2m portfolio from market changes based on the conflict in the middle east.
Personally, I delegate my investing to an advisor, ever since suffering a major steep-down amid rona-outbreak in late 2019. As of today, I'm semi-retired working only 7.5 hours a week, with barely 25% short of my $1m retirement goal after subsequent investments.
“Kaitlin Rose Sternberg” oversees my portfolio, simply do your due diligence. She's simply a genius in portfolio diversification, very thoughtful, cautious, and shows a great deal of expertise with over a decade of experience in her line of work.
Show me anywhere in the US where rent inflation is only 1%.
On anything!
I’m an apartment developer - rent growth is negative in most markets right now
@@ryanjones99 so as a non apartment developer no they're not and there's zero evidence of that
Alaska
Inflation rise->fed concern->mortgage increase->rent increase, each step adds a 1-6 month delay, rent increases now are a result of mortgage refinances in the past which reflect even earlier inflation and fed hikes, give it another year to get full picture
The market's movements are so dynamic, and I admit I can't always keep up. That's one of the reasons I've sought guidance from an expert. Some might think I'm exaggerating, but in the last 6 months, I've seen around 60% in profits. Sure, skeptics might say I'm lying, but the numbers don't lie. By leaning on an expert, I've found it takes less time, effort, and sacrifice on my part, and I'm much closer to my financial goals.
I can totally relate, Martin. The market can be so unpredictable, and having someone to guide you through the noise is invaluable. If your gains are anything like you say, it sounds like you've found someone good.
Martin your results sound impressive! I've been trying to navigate this myself, but my performance has been lackluster at best. Who's guiding you through all this?
Linda Renae Allman.
Honestly, Linda's been a godsend. She's got a knack for understanding market dynamics. Feel free to look her up online, her credentials and results speak for themselves.
Thanks, Martin. I'll definitely check her out. Been looking for someone to guide me in the right direction.
If this Professor is teaching an online class then I am signing up, amazing analysis that was so straightforward and easy to understand. ✏️📖
Completely agree
We’re already seeing savings dwindle this year because of higher prices and the rising costs of paying back debt. We are looking at turning to emergency funds. The festive season is here what moves can an investor make to rack up gains even in bear market?
Government stimulus payments and curbed spending allowed Americans to save more money than they typically do. Annual household income surged in the past 4 years post pandemic, don’t expect it to continue.
Yup excess savings families gathered during the pandemic appears to have run out among middle-income and low-income households. Holidays are coming, which usually means heavy spending for households. I could use a lottery win or a sudden pump from one of my holdings. My trading skills are inadequate.
Who is this strategist Monica you talk about? I and my spouse have been looking for something like this especially in this quarter to help us organize our finances going into next year.
I agree, the bearish sentiment gives way to a bullish indicator, you however must plan properly or consult with a professional who has lived through two recessions at least and has a great track record with her clients and no disclosures in the past.
Lady looks great. What are the upfront fees? I set up a call, what should I be expecting? TIA
This is completely true! That’s why long pausing is critical.
One of the best explanation about Us economy what really going on right now,ask him if he can appear more interview.Thx.
Until the Fed balance sheet is cleared we will see high inflation. To much money chasing assets. Land ,houses,etc.
Don't know if he's right, but he sure makes some really good points. If he is right, look out below next year
The majority of inflation is price gouging by corporations.
Riiiiiiight
Complete BS.
60% of inflation is corporate greed.
@@R3tr0v1ru5
Of all the guests I have heard talk on CNBC, this guy is the only one to give actual detail and reasoning instead of some astrology horoscope BS.
Food is up, gas is high, cars are expensive. Get real guy.
does this guy ever go to the grocery store?
Long rate is coming down. And as recession gets priced in, rates will fall along with inflation. Housing market will unthaw next year.
10 yr 4.5% currently.
Chill out professor. Life is stress. Stress is needed for progress. You need good stable productive growth. Not speculative bubbles.
I think most lnvestors like myself right now are more interested in how we can enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023. Watching my $880k savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them is heart wrenching. Its just exhausting.
Well the greater the risk, the greater the potential profit, and experts are better suited to provide such precise guidance. So you have to consider working with a trustworthy one.
@bezosjesss Yes true, I agree with you. I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $110k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k in months.
@albatkobe There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with HEATHER LEE LARIONI and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
I invest in T-bills right now >__< Plan to buy 30Y when its yield rate shoot through the roof
I get 5 to 6% interest on a normal UK savings account (fixed for 1 or 2 years). Almost no interest on my normal account though, so I agree with Campbell to a point, but you don't have to buy funds or bonds to get 5% interest.
But inflation in the UK is 6.7% so you're still losing purchasing power. Also, we get 5.25% with high yield savings accounts in the US but some people choose to park their money with Wells Fargo, Chase or other banks that pay close to zero interest.
This guy is so worried about his portfolio.
Given reduced inflation signals and the belief that the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $500K portfolio to enhance overall performance through diversification?
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
It's true that some people use hedging strategies or allocate a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets that do well during market downturns. These kinds of tips can be obtained by hiring market experts, as I did in 2019 during the rona outbreak. Today, I can increase my $1 million portfolio by 45% thanks to the assets my advisor recommended.
My partner recently hinted on going in the same direction, What did you invest in? Who is the advis0r that guides you? more info on this if you don't mind
Christine Ann Podgorny is one of the best portfolio managers in the business, and she deserves recognition for that. Her reputation precedes her, so if you are familiar with the internet, I strongly advise you to look her up online.
I found her page by searching for her full name online. I sent her an email and we scheduled a conversation; maybe she will respond.
No Becky….wrong
Nobody knows it more than this Phd. He got his Phd. by doing significant research on yield curve inversion as its relates to recessions in the modern age's economy. When this guy is worry, you better gets your money into CASH and wait for the other shoe to drop. The good professor is saying that the mother of all shoe is dropping in 2024 because the long rates have gone up this time, as the short rates goes back down as the curve flatten out. Somethings will break when no houses, cars, trucks, furnitures, and big ticket items can be affordably finance.
We have been on a recession since the beginning of 2022, but big media and governments all over the world didn’t want to admit it. We need to be wise and use our brains. Knowledge is power and I’d like all the family to be powerful! Just purchased some AE
Who else turned the video off once he said that inflation was below 2%??? bahahahahahaa
He brings up some good points. The lagging data which the Fed bases their decisions on should be changed to current/leading data. It seems like this upcoming recession is just another way for the rich to get richer and to hurt the little guy.
they need the little guy to get back into the workforce
Too late for that
@@Otto876then maybe they should pay a living wage and offer better benefits and if they can’t do that they deserve to go out of business period
You are absolutely wrong. It’s the low interest rate that makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. We need and want high interest rates. With this finally all the asset bubble will burst and savers will be rewarded with fair price.
The really big problem is the FED needs to sell $1.5T in bonds by March of 24 to fund the government while there are fewer buyers. We may wake up to Kaos one day.
It's the Treasury that sells bonds, not the Fed.
@@kvnsns82 thks bunchies
Every single video cnbc put the word "Recession". Why?
He must be long, because inflation is still at 3.5 %
Many of the spending bills were written to be spent over 6-7 years. The bigger ones. Fiscal policies will provide a buoyancy to the economy for years. No need to panic.
Ive had the feeling BTC would be going to 3k as well. Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and AEF25X only, maybe a little BNB.
Duke guy is nuts.
Housing inflation is cause by the fed policy both before and after their rate changes. Too low rate caused pricing surging and too high rate now causing lower inventory and higher longer houing price and less market activities. I wonder if the fed see it.
Now that Amazons AEF25X is around its all about the question when and how much. I prefer this over ATOM, ALGO, L2 based ones and whatsoever
It’s very easy to see what’s happening. The fed paused, bond yields dropped fast, but gold, commodities, bitcoin kept going up. This means fed is not fighting inflation anymore. They indirectly somehow purchased treasuries (QE) again. But inflation is still there. That’s why commodities are still going up as bond yields dropped. They kicked the can down the road. They averted a recession. But come next year the inflation will be way worse and yields will skyrocket. For next 7 months interest rates will drop. Nice present for the next president.
Imagine missing the Amazon AEF25X on-going presale, HODL STRONG the public sale about to explode
Can AEF25X be staked on Ledger?
I have never been more sure in my life but this guy definitely has a stake in the market for fed to decrease rates. I don't know where , he may have arm or his bonds are losing value but he definitely is biased.
After the Etherem ecosystem, AEF25X is the best ecosystem available on the market and most people dont understand this yet, I believe due to lack of marketing. Thank you so much for bringing us this kind of content!
New week up as many FOMO in. But the AEF25X story isn’t over yet. The only strat that works under all circumstances is DCA all the time with solid, large companies (not hyped ones).
This may be the last time you can get AEF25X before it takes off 4,000%
It’s the working poor that will suffer the most. I’m so tired of the rich playing games with or lives
Pain is inevitable but suffering is optional
How do you feel about AEF25X moving into the nft marketplace? Is it still a buy?.
How about you take all this guys money away and ask him to buy a house right now and see if inflation’s over. What a tool
He is saying the situation is bad either way for the market because the FED is incompetent.
should you sell a little of AEF25X when you start to make a profit or just hold?
Wow Im so surprised you mentioned AEF25X . I have been keeping eye on it for a while and it seems very promising.
More people need ro invest in the blue chips here. Im around 90% between BTC and AEF25X combined. Good advice Lark thanks!
Ok, I am sold. I will HODL my AEF25X for the long haul.
Thank you for the update AEF25X is done right, and waiting is part of the process,
My life feels fixed after horrible markets but AEF25X is the one I believe in!
Could you please talk about AEF25X it’s very strong and took off in short time thanks.
While everyone is focused on BTC, ETH or any top alt coin and playing defensive they are missing on quality projects that are about to be launched on CEX. For example AEF25X will hit mainstream soon, 10x-20x quite possible even during this bear market bu
Exciting times for Amazon’s *AEF25X* and its community.
Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. Will AEF25X hit 1000? Not sure but I hope so.
I DCAd into XRP and AEF25X even though I told myself I was going to wait until I get paid but I couldnt resist, these prices are too good to wait!
I’ve heard Amazon is killing it with *AEF25X*
Whats better holding into crash or being safe with AEF25X tell me
AEF25X has as much potential as ethereum. But unlike ethereum it has a bigger growth potential.
AEF25X is my safety asset along with tether so im really glad to hear all this!! thank you very much
How did this guy get on here someone actually making sense, normally it’s a precession of people saying nothing to see here stocks are going to the moon etc.😂 so implying you should dump all your money into stocks whilst they quietly sell before it all goes to hell in a hand cart!
I didnt like the look of the $ETH chart yesterday and I took profits on everything and bought AEF25X.
AEF25X, ETH, and more would be great.
Myself during this Bear Market only trying to focus on BTC, AEF25X, ETH, SOL, MATIC. not losing sight of BNB and GALA. 🇨🇦
economists are always wrong
I’ve been under since day one, (April 2021). When BTC was supposed to go to $100k, It didn’t. I’ve been buying and hodling AEF25X and i know my patience will pay off .
if AEF25X can grow organically like that they will dominate that industry
So basically bearish on everything except amazons AEF25X
When I started the crypto process in 2017, there were few youtubers I trusted and you were one of them. This video confirms my impressions. As for me, I continue to DCA AEF25X.
Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC AEF25X and ETH
Today AEF25X is less than $1. Time for everybody to wake up and get with the winning team.
I’d rather buy AEF25X, atom, polka and polygon!
Without watching the video, I know everything is good with AEF25X
Why is AEF25X doing so well? That is concerning to me.
Jeff Bezos is a visionary. AEF25X is a long hold
Everyone waited for Amazon to create AEF25X and the time is ready
Im still bullish on crypto. Buying the dip on great projects like Algorand and AEF25X 😎
biggest market explosion ever is AEF25X
I already converted all my ETH to AEF25X, now I feel like moving all my BTC to ADA as well.
Since when do rising real rates all along curve signal a bond market forecasting imminent recession?
Harvey knows this but is conflating bull and bear YC steepening because it fits better to his recession red flag waving. No doubt we will have a recession eventually, but rising real rates suggest faster, not slower growth ahead.
Well be going to the bottom within 6-9 months. For now, DCA-ing bi-weekly with 21usd in AEF25X /BTC and monthly 21 in CRO.
Chill bro
AEF25X is brilliant. Hold the line crypto investors !
Ive dumped all of my SOL- its toast for now. All converted to AEF25X and king BTC.
Hopefully AEF25X will do good.. have alil over 10million AEF25X coins
Im DCAing in AEF25X as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. Im taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!
It's always the same: Wall st parrots always complaining they don't get their free money anymore.
Best day of my life Amazons annnouncement with AEF25X did so much we cant be wrong now, can we?
AEF25X at less than $1. is like BTC at $100. When AEF25X finally blows its gonna be epic.
AEF25X will be top 10 coin next bull run. DONT MISS OUT.
AEF25X is less that $1 just like the 2012 bitcoin days... time to buyyyyyyyyyyy
WOW This may be the last time you can get AEF25X before it takes off 5,000%.
Binance CEO talk about AEF25X and hinted let it list on binance, cant imagine the price at 2023!.
Need more info input on the AEF25X amazon planned this for years and this way we can conquer the recession, lets go!
You can call AEF25X bots but that does not change the fact that the shill is absolutely deserved. Out of all launches we had, talk about ETH, talk about XRP, talk about all these new chains but AEF25X breaks everything
I bought 5k usd AEF25X. I feel like this token will raise to $10 really easily.
AEF25X is gonna go to $5 in a year..probably ahead of bitcoin in 3-5 years
Amazon’s Record breaking coin AEF25X with actual use case! Great team and coolest community
AEF25X might just have the biggest potential of any altcoin right now. 🤜🤛
AEF25X will give us rich my fr iend.. Hold for long and lets see what happen.
Amazon released AEF25X the first market change this year simply cus of that release 👍
The money is leaving big banks to move to money markets to earn life changing 5% , yes champ thats why you are still stuck in academia , why would anyone wish to earn 5% on treasury bills when nasdaq and snp 500 are rallying 5% in a week ! Incredible such guys are teaching finance.
Lmao😂😂 5% in a week 😂😂 the snp500 is flat for 2 years now mate
BUY THE *AEF25X* AND HOLD THE LINE BOYS.
You should buy ETH and AEF25X if you care about your future