Poker Strategy MATH Every Pro Knows
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- čas přidán 27. 04. 2024
- There is a lot of math that underlies a good #poker strategy, but some concepts are more important than others. Here are the 4 concepts that every serious poker pro fully understands and calculates regularly. I've also included formulas and practice so you can refine these calculations more easily.
Throughout this video, we go through representative examples and hands to demonstrate how poker #math can be used to make better decisions at the table and gain a competitive edge over your opponents. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced player looking to up your game, this video is a must-watch for anyone who wants to improve their poker #strategy.
00:00 Poker Strategy Math Intro
00:50 Pot Odds 101
04:16 Breakeven Percentage
06:13 Auto Profit
08:03 Combos And Blockers
10:24 Expected Value (EV)
16:06 Conclusion
PRACTICE YOUR POKER MATH
www.splitsuit.com/poker-prefl...
RELATED CONTENT
· Free Pot Odds Calculator: www.splitsuit.com/free-pot-od...
· Poker EV Formula: www.splitsuit.com/simple-poke...
· Poker Combos & Blockers: www.splitsuit.com/poker-combo...
· The Postflop Workbook: www.splitsuit.com/postflop-po... - Hry
Grab all of the spreadsheets used in this video (plus many more!) in this pack. Hint, you can pay $0 and get them all for free! www.splitsuit.com/free-poker-spreadsheets
Lose the beard.
@@marcjtdc Why?
You're doing awesome with the channel. Been catching up every day of your last 5+ years.
Thank you Ville, and hopefully you're enjoying the library!
I think I remember you from around 2005 u did some vids I watched when I started playing NLH nice to see u still at it and thank you for your insights it definitely help me.
This is great, these videos have taught me so much. Keep ‘em coming!
Cheers Nicholi!
the trick I use for pot odds is the following:
if % of pot 1/4 then pot odds ratio 1/5 then required equity 1/6
other example
if % of pot 1/2 then pot odds ratio 1/3 then required equity 1/4
always works if numerator is 1
if numerator is not 1 you need to add the numerator to the denominator
if % of pot 3/4 then pot odds ratio 3/7 then required equity 3/10
you'll notice it matches your results perfectly
gotta love math
Nice!
#quickmafs
Great
Wow!! Thank you So Much for this!!! This should be a video.. somewhere!!! Nicely done!!
@@sogbryan6633 glad you like my shortcut. I noticed the pattern, tested it and it works.
Sweeeeeny! Thank you. Been learning from you for years now. Took a break but im back and your content is even more impressive. Thank you!!!
You're very welcome, and I hope you had a refreshing break!
Damn. I've been playing for a long time and I just realised I don't know anything. Glad the algorithm gave me this lol. I've added your book to the wishlist for pay day.
I recently bought your Math Workbook! I'm in dealing school, preparing to Deal for the "WSOP" next Month, and my weakest point is Math. Hopefully your Book helps me‼️🙏🙏
Perfect. Personally, I’ve needed a video like this for ages. Excellent content as per, thanks a lot James.
You're very welcome Casey! Any other topics you'd like to see covered?
Dude I bought your workbook and although I do fractions all day long at work installing tile and do them pretty quickly I have a real tough time understanding how your doing this. The only thing I’ve ever been good at in math is fractions because I feel like I can just see them in my head, everything else I’m terrible at. And and I’m not being critical but holy smokes you talk so fast and it’s like you never take a breath, so while I’m thinking about one calculation you’re already three steps ahead. Any way you could do a video on how to calculate odds for dummies? In my life, I’ve only played in four live tournaments, three small nightly tournaments at Caesars and won one of them and bagged at last year’s WPT championship at the Wynn. So I have potential, but I really want to understand the maths better.
A dumbed down way to get a good estimate of your pot odds would be to add what you are calling to itself until you reach the size of the pot. For example you’re in a tournament and it’s 12350 to call with a pot of 51400. Just simplify it to 12 and 51, then do 12+12=24 +12=36 +12=48. 48 is close to 51 so we can just estimate a little more than 4:1 because 12+12+12+12 is the same as 12 x 4, so that’s where you get 4:1
Setting .75x and speed of his talk is good. I didn't try .5x
I agree
There are sheets to memorize them. Look for pod odds sheet. I got one from upswing years ago and after a few sessions i had them in my head.
Never been good at math to.
Just pause the video and take time to think about it
Great video… Thanks
thank you rabbi
Thank you big guy
great vid.
nicely done
Super Solid!
tyty!
I'm sure there are many players, like myself, that do really well at the tables but are hopeless at maths. I realise it's important to have maths in your arsenal and I'd win more if I had a solid understanding but I cannot sit at the tables doing these formulas because I'd spend forever getting to the place mathematical players get to in seconds.
Sadly me too just dont undertand it 😂
Poker math is used for analysis and study when not playing. This will give you a better understanding of the game and assist you when playing. If your serious about making a profit then you have to put in the time to learn the formulas when not playing.
Study away from the table. Then when someone bets pot, you know it's 2:1. If someone bets half pot, it's 3 to 1. And if it's somewhere in between, you can just estimate.
Great job
ty!
I think the solvers really picked up on pot odds and why 2x+ pot raises are often a good solution as a pot bet still have an opponent 2:1 pot odds
you think the solvers picked up on basic math? i'd say thats a safe bet.
Loved the video, subbed aswell.
How do you apply pot odds to the hands you hold and the hands you think your opponent holds? Equity requirements?
A lot of time using tools like Equilab or Flopzilla to better estimate/eyeball in real-time what your equity is. It takes a lot of off-table time, but it's super useful long-term work.
I suspect that hand reading and putting specific opponents on accurate ranges in a variety of spots is as important as math. If you play against every player like they play correctly you can make some big mistakes.
I talk about this point a lot with a friend as our games tend to be primarily with guys who are playing recreationally. This math certainly makes sense based on the the definitions and would seem applicable in more advanced company, but things like what percentage of the time should I be bluffing are much less relevant against players who aren't even aware of concepts like ranges or table image etc.
The math still applies, just the way you fill in some of the variables, like their fold %, will be different.
I love your videos and they are helping me immensely! Could you explain how you came up with 2.3:1 (during the Pot Odds example)? I'm horrible at math so I'm sure it seems obvious to anyone else. Thanks for the great content!
Because after they bet the 12k the total pot size will be 28k. you then divide 28k by the amount you will have to bet which is 12k. 28/12 =2.3. Therefore 2.3:1 is just a simplified ratio of 28:12.
Gonna wing an answer here. Looking at 4:1 = 20%, the easy conversion is to realize 4:1 is 1/(1+4). So 2.3:1 is 1/3.3, which l is about 3/10. The values were 100% of original pot, 75%op, 75%op, making 2.5x the original pot. .75 (player commitment) out of 2.5 (total pot after calling), * 4/4 for easier math, comes to 3/10. So if you win 30% of the time, it's a wash.
its actually nonsense.... if the math was correct the ratio would be described as 23:10... if the guy below is correct about 28/12 then this breaks down to 7:3
So, in realtime if someone bets 10k into 100k pot and 4 people call (including you) ... since they bet 1/10, your pot odds equity requirement is 1/15th or 6.6%. Basically, just figure out the bet/pot ratio and add the number of people continuing in the hand (better + all the callers including you) to the denominator. That 6.6% is at least how often you need to win the hand to be profitable.
It's nice to see someone go over the basics. I'm sick to death of hearing the poker bros talk about GTO plays while looking like they're making everything up on the fly. None of modern poker theory makes sense anymore, and nobody is explaining it clearly.
Cheers!
Is there a place I can buy just the PDF of your poker math workbook?
Yup. www.splitsuit.com/poker-preflop-math-workbook
6:39 how can I know that my opponent is going to fold 40% of time? Ask him? Ask his neighbour? pull up a quick calculator and figured fast enough? Look at the crystal ball?
But that’s dependent on your cards though right? because if i have a 2 and 7 off suit and we checked all the way, im. it sure the pot calc would matter right?
Your cards will impact equity, yes. The pot odds are the same, but your estimated equity can vary massively dependent on your hand and the range you assign your opponent.
Giant over-bets - throw all the math out of window when deciding if you're going to call or not. This is going to be highly dependent on many other factors. Mostly, does your opponent bluff a lot?
it’s the basic theory of calculation
even if villain bluff a lot, there are many good hands disguise from that.
You need to pay attention with basic theory beside exploite players on the table.
Love you JS, but why is it you can always rely on poker coaches to complicated the math process way beyond the necessary? Its easier to work out pot-odds when you compare the amount to you have to call to the total pot after the call is made.
Because when I teach the shortcut method there are hundreds of comments like "WTF HOW YOU EVEN GET THAT NUMBER BRO? SO I WIN MY OWN CHIPS? LOL CLOWN". So it's just been easier to teach the long(er)form math in videos lol.
@@ThePokerBank That's interesting. Maybe its a difference between north American and British schooling. Ratios were never taught in high school, up to the age of 16. Though that may have changed since the 90s!
@@littleinkling4604 Certainly possible!
nice
Then there's the day you get beaten by set over set 3 times, beaten by quads twice, and your aces lose every time when all in preflop. This was my yesterday. I was beaten by hands with a 95%+ probability by miracle rivers in hands that my opponent never should have even been in based on their odds of winning. On these days you know math is a cold hearted bitch.
Math in itself is always correct, you need to be long term oriented not results oriented off of a downswing. That said, you may also be the unluckiest player alive and be in the bottom 1% of players that gets outdrawn as there is no such thing as infinite games for human beings with regular life spans. Math is based off of an infinite number of hands, so in theory you will win over time and you most likely will if you play it right. Even tho you lost you should still be happy they called, cus as you say 95% of the time you will end up with profits and your bankroll will be happy for it. Unless you BI is your bankroll, in which case... you probably should play at a lower limit :p
@@T3n50r - I lost with quads three times in a row a few years back. Maybe I do qualify as the unluckiest player on the planet. I have come across one person who lost with quads twice in a row but I'm still the king of variance.
@@aardvarkbiscuit2677 Damn, what were you playing? Omaha?
In the specific example where you have AT, aren't you _ beating_ most of the hands that fold? You say that they are calling only with hands that beat you but you have second pair, best kicker. The only tine that they fold a hand where you need them to fold is when it would be a chop. If they are folding all one-pair hands, a you discuss later, it makes more sense to bluff.
To simplify let’s say you everyone calls the bb and you usually don’t play 56 off suit and you are next to the dealer button.
You can call that and hope to flop the nuts either a straight or trips or something of high value.
You are essentially getting a good price for shit cards.
This is why people with good cards should be betting big preflop to get better odds when the cards run out.
Example: AK or pocket pair heads up will win 70%+ of the time depending on what you have obviously (summarized bad math) of just winning straight out.
But if more people stay in that goes down to like 20-40% of winning if there are too many players.
Thanks upside down Kramer
So is there any way to mathematically make money over the long term as a poker player? Or will it always just be gambling?
Both. Maybe this video will help: czcams.com/video/viS9EYf_-Kw/video.html
around 14:30. When your opponent folds to a bet, you win 600 and not 450 (pot+his bet), so the calculation is slightly wrong, but still -EV
Pot is 300, Opponent bets 150. You shove and he folds. You win the 300 in the pot and his 150 bet. Total 450.
@@VasiliNyks Ok, you are correct, I've rewatched the video and it's definitely 150 into 300. It's just pot includes opponent's bet.
does this 'math' help you win or bet better, considering you have zero control over flop, turn, river?
Of course, and even more so if you can get your opponent to fold too often before the next card comes =)
Pot odds always confuse me, how come the money you have already invested in the hand count towards winnings? If you invested $15 and your opponent invested the same and is now betting $10 making the pot $40 in my mind im going to be calling $10 to win $25 not $40....
Because once you've put money into the pot, it's no longer yours. Unless you are doing a multi-street analysis, run the pot odds calculations like the video does.
yes, you have to accept the money you invested up to that point is no longer yours, so a bonus if you get it back as part of the win@@ThePokerBank
@@ThePokerBankyes but surely you should only use the profit you will make when calculating pot odds. For example, if the pot is 1000 (I've put 500 and opponent has put 500) and opponent bets 1000 on the river. By your calculations, I need to be winning 33% of the times to break even but if you try that then it doesn't work because losing twice puts you at -3000 and winning once then puts you at -1500. Any help would be appreciated
@@ardo7214 By my calculations you would call $1K to win $2K (the $1K pot + villain's $1K bet). Winning $2K 33% of the time and losing $1K 67% of the time, everything rinses down to breakeven.
@@ThePokerBank Please can you explain mathematically why we don't consider the money we have previously put into the pot? Thank you for replying and I really like your videos
Poker is a game that takes a couple hands too learn and a lifetime too master - WSOP
Your diagram at 1:56 is so confusing. It doesn't show the bets. I believe it shows the stack sizes.
@02:29 something that can confuse me is isn't it more that you are putting in 4k to win 20k but your trying to win back your money so really you are risking 4k to win 24k cuz if you lose then your 4k is dead money.
There are differences when calculating the EV of a single action (like we are in this video) vs. the EV of an entire line/branch.
So if there is 200 in the pot villain bets 100. ( 300 total ) , hero needs to call 100 to win 400 total. Isnt that 4:1 , so 25% equity needed ? But ur saying its different ? Im confused by what ur saying
But ye
No, it's 3:1 (risking $100 to win the $300 in the middle ($200 pot + villain's $100 bet)). That translates to 25% equity required.
(fwiw, 4:1 would translate to 20% equity required).
@@ThePokerBank thanks for clarification I love the concept of ur videos especially for me starting out full time mtts can u please make more content like this it really helps.
Just explaining different situations n scenarios thanks appreciate it
@@ThePokerBank also could u possibly do any videos on BR strat ? Like how n when to take shots properly. Which games to play for optimal BR growth. Etc. I kno there is alot different ones out there but it would be nice to get your perspective on it.
Especially for MTT players or anything along those lines
Love the content my Friend
@@user-ri4mc5dv3q I did a video on taking shots here: czcams.com/video/RC8CuzTcSZk/video.html As for MTT content, have you done CORE yet? There is an MTT course included with it that sounds right up your alley: redchippoker.com/launch-core
@@ThePokerBank thanks for the timely response n information, I appreciate it..
Real question
Do you guys holding a calculator in your hand when playin poker?
ofc not. this was explicitly mentioned in the video =)
dont you people listen or watch properly???!!!!
Im too lazy to do the math so i feel my way through each hand....basically if your checking im betting😊
That works against the easiest part of the player pool, but it will quickly fail against even slightly thinking players =)
making poker uncool bring back icy stare downs
Why not do some basic math WHILE running a lil blue steel on your opponent?
😂😂😂 @akirasc1496
Some people wear shades because they think their eyes give them away. Mean while all real pros no to hide their chins because the chin can be an easy tell to see.
feet are the most honest, and lower body, when someone is chatting to u at the bar but not really interested, thier feet are often already heading to the door!!
the Human brain if trained in math can recognize most situations.
Probabilities, likelihood and even lies.
Good knowledge but you talk so fast. I don't understand why the rush when we want to learn. Thanks though, I'll just do 75% speed on settings.
Worked like a charm at 75% speed. 🥳
I do not use math or pot odds, i just play my hand,,,,,hahahahahahahaha,,,,,,I cashed in 3 straight WSOP events this year. Of course i use pot odds sometimes, it depends on my stack size and hand. I do not call just because i am getting good pot odds, i can play a awesome short stack if needed.
wow. That's...a lot to parse.
👍👍👍👍👍👊
♥
😀
Don't be surprised. If you do what everyone else does in poker, you'll get everyone else's results. If you want more, you need to work harder on your game. That's the price of success.
bingo
As a sports bettor with a sports betting mind, I do not understand your required equity to continue. So the way I look at it when making my decision is if the betting were to end right now, how often do I win the hand. That’s how I’m looking at equity in any situation, so in the very first example you are 4k to win 16k and to return 20k. This is 4:1 or in sports betting +400. So let’s say we run that 100 times (you can extrapolate 1000, 10k etc.). Total I’m risking 400k correct? With an equity of 17% I’m saying that from here I should win 17% of the time, so over a 100 times I should win 17 times correct? The return is 20k times 17 equaling 340k. So it’s a spot that’s generating negative ROI because your total investment is 400k to return only 340k. So I feel that you need at least 20% equity to continue. So I just wanna ask, am I looking at this the wrong way? Am I missing something? Just want to learn
So after some thought it’s not 4:1, it is 5:1 as you said. 4/1 is the fractional odds and that’s what I was meaning. But as I said you should need 20% equity to continue because that’s your implied odds 1/5 or 20%. So I’m still stuck on where the 17% to continue is coming from because it results in negative ROI
@Austin Belitz You can’t assume the betting will always stop there. If you hit your hand the expected 17% of the time, your opponent will still likely put some more money in, and then you can call or even raise them after that (possibly even go all in). If your opponent does not bet, you can still bet your hand as well and your opponent will likely call most bets if he bet every other street. You have to consider what expected value you should get once that river card turns over. That is a very important variable when doing the math on that turn card example. Not to mention if your opponent checks the river, you now have the option to bluff. Picking up some fold equity as well.
Your assumption that after 100 of the same hands you will only return 340k is nearly impossible. Again because if your hand hits you will likely bet half pot, full pot or all in and your opponent will call some % of the time. So 340k is your baseline and anything else you can squeeze out of your opponent is where the profit builds up. For example out of the 17/100 times you hit your hand, lets say half of the 17 = 8.5 you get more chips out of you opponent. Sometimes quarter pot bet, half pot and sometimes your opponent calls an all in. out of the 8.5 times you get a call, lets say you average an extra 20k chips on the river. You are now returning 510k not 340k after calling that turn bet.
@@luke1708 thank you for the detailed response, I appreciate that. My first question now is are we also considering the more money we potential lose 83% of the time if we continue? Why are we not looking at each spot independent of one another. Like why do we consider what could happen on future streets but at same time we are not considering money we’ve put in on previous streets when calculating. I want to understand poker on this level because I want to actually go to a live tournament. I’ve only been playing online low stakes cash games and the occasional live 1-2 games at Winstar when I can make the drive. I’ve finally understand positioning and ranges over the past 6 months. Now all im missing is understanding pot odds and equity.
@@austinbelitz3808 Will if you miss on the river the 83% of the time with this hand, you can simply fold rather than putting any more chips in the pot (theres some cases where you will be able to bluff as well). you have to go back to the flop and consider what your equity was there. Lets continue with this example and say you were on a flush draw and looking for a heart on the turn or river. Once the opponent bets the flop if you are on a flush draw, you have around a 40% chance of hitting the flush by the river. So you make the call if the odds are right. Now that you get to the turn, the flush isnt there... bummer. But if your opponent is still giving you the right price to call on the turn, you have to make the call (especially considering all the other money you have invested to get to this point).
Also you can look at each spot and make an educated decision based on what you are seeing. With the cards in this example 8h 6h 3d. Lets say you have AJ of hearts. If your opponent bets the flop you should sometimes consider raising them. You have the nut flush draw and 2 over cards (Ace and Jack). thats 9 outs for the hearts and 6 more outs for the Ace and Jack. 15 outs total. Not saying Ace or Jack will always be good, but its a good bonus. With that said you have nearly 60% chance of having the winning hand once youve seen the flop. Your basically never folding the flop bet in this example. So once you have called the flop and you are now here at the turn, all you can do is look at the numbers in front of you. And if you are getting the right pot odds now that you are here, calling is typically going to be the play. On a side note a quick way to calculate your equity is to multiple your outs by 2 for turn and river. So on the flop if you have 6 out multiply by 4 = a 24% you'll make your hand by the river. On the turn if you have 6 outs multiply by 2 = a 12% chance you'll make your hand by the river. I assume you likely already knew this quick way to estimate your equity. But if not, its helpful.
First! Lol
Someone had to be!
I watched this three times and didn't understand any of it, is poker not for me?
If you watched all of the related videos that go more indepth and still have absolutely 0 idea what's going on - then maybe?
@ThePokerBank Damn, time to pick a new career path =(
Fart rods
Rewawity
Do the math or save brain bites and go with “I’m due for a river” like I do….
That certainly saves quite a few of those brain bites =)
how the heck does anybody grasp this stuff??
How does one grasp anything? Study, practice, use. =)
I think..you could do better as an auctioneer, dude!
I even try to speak slower in these videos, lol
You have to work on the way you speak. The sing song way you talk is way too annoying to pay attention to what you're saying
Can you name a few people who have better speech patterns so I can better understand the difference?
@RobertPaulson4221 You have to work on the way you communicate. The way you insult the content provider like your opinion is fact is way too annoying to take you seriously. (And, yet the content provider responded in a very professional manner regardless of your rudeness)
@ThePokerBank James, I find your voice pleasant to listen to. I also enjoy that your content is well thought out and you speak smoothly in a practiced manner without being monotone. It makes the concepts so much easier to understand. I find it much harder to maintain focus on people who digress and use a lot of filler words like 'um'.
I've enjoyed your content for years - here and on Red Chip - thank you for all of your hard work!
@@shawndabehrns2253 I am not the one putting out videos. I communicated my thoughts very clearly and he replied in a way that suggests he is interested in improving. I am doing far more to help his channel than someone like you who only wants to kiss his butt instead of finding ways to improve
@@shawndabehrns2253 I really appreciate that Shawn, thank you!
Lol is poker even fun any more???
Very much so, yes.
You can't teach maths by talking. Need a white board
You lost me at 'one over one plus five' so i'm out.
it doesnt work for 53 calls and sucks out
James Sweeney, I probably listen to you for around 20 years and only today i have seen your face. ahahah Played the video and immediately recognized the voice.
Did my face match the voice?