The RIGHT Way to Think About Year 2 Breakouts in Dynasty
Vložit
- čas přidán 24. 07. 2024
- I promise that one day I'll make a strategy video where I don't suggest trading for future 1sts. But today is not that day.
Don't Let Fear Ruin Your Dynasty Team: • Don't Let Fear Ruin Yo...
ADP data courtesy of dynastydatalab.com
Follow me on Twitter: / paulpattersonff
0:00 - Intro
0:20 - An Alarming Statistic
0:40 - The Young Player Conundrum
2:04 - The "JSN" Archetype
3:12 - Treylon Burks, for Example
4:12 - Where Do Great Players Come From?
5:49 - Opportunity Cost
6:58 - A Common Fallacy
7:21 - The Rookie Paradox: Less Is More
8:31 - The Case Against JSN
9:53 - 4 Essential Questions
10:20 - Bryce Young vs. 2025 1st
13:21 - Outro - Sport
Don't Let Fear Ruin Your Dynasty Team: czcams.com/video/WvO7FgnuYf8/video.html
Please don't ask me why there are two extra minutes of outro music. I really don't know.
Quickly becoming one of my favorite channels. You have a bright future in this space bro and I'm just happy to be in on it early. Please keep up the work and don't slow down!
Thanks a lot! I'll do my best
@@PurePotentialFFthere’s a gap to fill after fantasy flock stopped posting dynasty content. Stay consistent
This channel is about to explode. Logical, clear, to the point. Sorry for not sharing your content with my league mates.
Plz share 😢
I’m a JSN apologist so I may be biased here but I think JSN is a fine investment in dynasty purely because of his talent. In general, stats are a tool to interpret what we see on the field. Things like yards per route run and target rate can’t be compared without context. JSN’s position as a rookie was very unique, not only did he have to compete for targets against 2 other established players, but he had to do so operating primarily from the slot and was used in multiple bubble screens. This is also with sub-optimal QB play. Very few teams invest first round capital into a WR when they already have 2 quality receivers and don’t have an offense or QB to support volume passing. Most other highly rated receiver prospects are drafted into a receiver needy team, or offenses designed to support their selection. Even with this, JSN showed flashes and was relied upon in key moments including catching 2 game winning TD passes. Comparing his with players who failed with wide open opportunity like Burks, Toney, Bateman, and skyy Moore is very unfair. I’ll just bet on the talent and look for the situation to get better.
These are all good arguments for why JSN can succeed. I'm just not interested in investing at his current cost.
Am a Seahawks fan. Keep jsn and if any of yr team mates wanna trade him. Get him. He had limited playing time, Pete never liked his qb throwing to the middle of the field it’s the reason why we never had any relevant fantasy TE too. Some analyst don’t dig in deep enough about the players they are talking about. Watch how grubb who primary uses 11 personnel uses jalen McMillan and you will see what jsn will be this year
I appreciate you breaking down fantasy game theory. Too many “experts” watch film and have no idea what they’re watching and give their awful player takes. This is actual useful information
@@OutdoorSnail thank you 🫡
Im a Seahawks fan and JSN is the real deal. Im all in
Shut up
I hope you're right! I drafted him at 1.03 last year
Like the unique content. Appreciate the insight. Subscribed.
Thanks!
Feel like it should be noted that year-two RBs should be evaluated differently. Year-two backs in the dead zone tend to be really good bets. Even a guy like Charbonnet or Kendre Miller are probably post dead zone but I’m buying those guys!
Great content.
Appreciate ya
This MF don’t miss 😤
After a few vids gotta say awesome style of talking and clearly structued no bs spittin i love that! Could we have a new star in the FF space right here?! Keep putting out stuff of that standard!!! 💪Sub ✅
Thanks man!
Here is a list of WR's drafted in round 1 of NFL Draft who scored fewer than 9 PPR PPG as rookies in the past 10 years:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Quentin Johnston
Treylon Burks
Jameson Williams
Rashod Bateman
Henry Ruggs
Jalen Reagor
N'Keal Harry
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross
Will Fuller V
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
I am in on Bryce Young, as I am a believer in Dave Canales
I know this video isn’t about JSN specifically and I appreciate the content. JSN had a broken wrist that wasn’t healed until week 6, an offensive coordinator that used him poorly (way to screen heavy) , and a defense that couldn’t get off the field. They were dead last in offensive time of possession. Alot to digest but theres many of outside factors that limited his production. Factors in which will not be factors this season.
@@coltonstrickland3185 definitely a guy I could be wrong about. I’m drafting him a decent bit on Underdog.
I’m just not convinced the upside case is worth the price in dynasty.
Don’t forget to cut the music at the end😆 Another great video. Your delivery is made for long form video
Lol thanks for the heads up
Great vid love to see the dynasty theory vids instead of the usual I like this player over that player.
What’s your thought on a similar guy in this range, Christian Watson? Some days I think give him another year, others I think it’s time to just flip him now.
Watson seems to be valued more in that mid-2nd range, which is more palatable to me. Worse profile than JSN but had some intriguing per-route stats as a rookie.
I have him in a couple spots but not a guy I'm targeting.
I subbed a little while ago cause Poke Ball+dynasty fb equals my kinda guy, but the boat & mystery box family guy deep cut just strengthens my parasocial relationship w you to a new level lol 🤩
You love to see it
im scared of JSN and want to trade for him at the same time, its pretty conflicting
the qb play coupled with injuries and bad coaching was historic last season.
Great stuff, man! I stop what I’m doing and watch anytime you post a new video.
What do you do when a trade is a win for you in value but doesn’t “fit your team”? I’ve got a trade offer where I send Jayden Reed and receive Penix and a first. I love the value of it, but Penix would be my qb4 (AR, Tlaw, and baker) and Reed is my current wr3(MHJ, Rome, Reed, downs, Dotson, wicks). I’m struggling here because in a vacuum it’s a good trade but with the rest of my team as context I don’t know if it makes sense for me.
I have Reed valued below a 2025 1st, so that's an easy accept for me with Penix also added on top. Draft picks are essentially currency. You should have no trouble moving that 1st for another WR down the road, or you can just pocket the 1st as a little future value investment and trade a 2nd for someone like Ridley and probably get the same production.
Nice video! You’ve made me want to move on from JSN and Addison (from previous video), but I’m still very much in a rebuild. What would you ideally be targeting for these players individually and packaged together? I’m in a 12tm SF
Their value is right on the edge of that 1st-rounder territory, so I would literally offer them individually to every manager for a 2025 1st. If that doesn't work, try again with 2026 1sts.
I really enjoy your takes on Dynasty Team Building. Keep making my content and your account will surely grow
Thanks!
First time watching your channel and I love the content bro! I subscribed and will definitely be back!
Welcome aboard!
The algorithm really cooked with this one
very thoughtful and sharp but explained plainly and digestibly... i think there are other numbers to point to JSN's season not being as bad as it seemed, and i don't see him as thin a bet (same for Bryce lol), but either way the general idea here is a good one - caution/opportunity cost/realism - all about the price and the other options at that price
oooh funky outro
Appreciate the feedback! I always want the strategy to come through most clearly. People can take or leave my player takes as they wish haha
@@PurePotentialFF mission accomplished
Love your stuff keep it up! Would you trade Aiyuk, E. Moore and a third for Rice, D-Hop and a second? Both 25 picks. D-Hop would fill in one of my four wr spots (technically two wr two flex), til rice is back from suspension. Just seems like Mahomes and Reid still like Rice and what we saw end of last year seems a lot more promising for a guy two years younger than Aiyuks situation and expecting him to maintain last years efficiency.
I’d try to get that done without sending the 3rd back, but I do like the deal and think I’d make it either way.
I think Rice and Hopkins are both undervalued at the moment.
@@PurePotentialFF thanks I think I agree. I was maybe trying to get Diggs instead of Hopkins from him but I’m starting to think Hopkins will probably have a better year this year if Levis progresses at all, just has less time left in the league overall with it being dynasty. I keep hearing how Aiyuk is the most talented of them for sure the highest ranked, Rice uncertainty, etc. and I do like Aiyuk but I feel like he’d need to be the focal point somewhere with more volume/less target competition, from what I saw last year he just seems too boom/bust in San Fran. Curious if you have any specific thoughts or reasoning not to stick with Aiyuk or just your outlook for him.
@@THEsethsix I think Aiyuk is extremely talented, but I do doubt the ceiling in SF due to low passing volume and target competition. I don't know how likely it is he'll be traded or whether his new team would be a significant upgrade.
I've got no issue holding Aiyuk, but I see Rice + Hopkins + 2nd as a really solid return.
Love it! What about Isiah Pacheco??
I'm into Pacheco. He showed pretty legit upside in the second half of last season and the Chiefs added nobody to that backfield. I'd prefer not to trade a 1st for him, but I think he'll have a nice season.
Thanks for the Dynasty content! I'm looking to package Deebo Samuel and Jameson Williams for a better asset.. Do you think a player like Drake London, DeVonta Smith, Michael Pittman or DK Metcalf would be an option and make sense? I also won the Ship last year and trying to win again so would like a starter that will produce points and not just a rookie prospect or picks. Deebo has a decent floor and target share on a good offense but at 28+ age I might just be stuck with him and his consistent points. Any suggestions would be appreciated? Thanks!
I'd be thrilled to get Drake London for that price. I think I'd make the deal for DeVonta or Metcalf, too. Not sure about Pittman.
Overall, though, Jameson is a guy I'd be shopping.
@@PurePotentialFF Thanks! Looking at KTC would you trade Jameson for Kendra Miller, Jaylen Warren or Tyjae Spears?
@@Do-Minik Warren or Spears, yes. I’m not as sold on Kendre
@@PurePotentialFF Thanks bud! If you ever want to do an episode called “I fixed my subscribers teams” hit me up👍
Guy literally offered me waddle for JSN straight up .. couldn’t pass on that one lol
Thoughts on Keaton Mitchell.
He’s just a flyer at this point. Probably worth a random 4th. Would definitely sell for a 3rd.
But Paul, why are you saying JSN is bad and has no chance of breaking out?
Man, I should really put more disclaimers into these videos 😂
Who's in that got dang pokeball!?
It's a secret
@@PurePotentialFF I'm guessing Psyduck
Send this video to yr league owner who has jsn and hope he trades him to you. You will get a huge steal.
They’ll still want a 1st
@@Nikillemif you are not 1 of the worst teams in yr league then you will be happy giving up yr first once the season starts. Seahawks new coaching staffs are really high on him.
I think you unfairly cherry picked 2 players who had terrible situations last season.
There's a reason why the Panthers had the worst record last year and it wasn't because of Young. His team is way better than last year and while I don't see him moving to Tua/Purdy range his value will still increase a lot this year.
JSN also got screwed. Terrible OC and they didn't use him like they should have.
Both of these guys will improve this season and for where they are going in startups it's worth the risk.
I think trading Young for a 1st is fine. This upcoming QB class isn't that great and you know he's going to be a starter for at least 2 more seasons.
How can you be concerned about JSN. LOL
I think I explained myself pretty clearly in the video.
@@PurePotentialFF I don’t agree. He’s an outlier compared to all the names you mentioned. Injured up till the bye, egregious usage and scheme. Flashed elite abilities later in season. He’ll be closer to 1130 than 630 this season bookmark it
@@chadnigem3951 well you’re welcome to disagree but asking me “how” when most of the video is about him seems silly 😂
I tend to think he’s a solid player that will never reach the heights we expected prior to last season. Just don’t like his price.