The Hidden Financial Black Hole Waiting The Next Government

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  • čas přidán 3. 06. 2024
  • A look at the poor state of UK finances and why many problems have been left until after the election.
    0:00 Intro
    0:50 Fiscal Fiction
    2:20 Fading Tax Revenues
    3:58 False Economies
    6:30 Ageing Population
    8:32 Reversing QE
    ► Please SUBSCRIBE!
    ► UK Economy - czcams.com/users/economicshe...
    Sources:
    www.reuters.com/world/uk/no-m...
    ifs.org.uk/news/next-governme...
    ifs.org.uk/sites/default/file...
    cepr.org/voxeu/columns/auster...
    neweconomics.org/2024/03/endi...
    ABOUT
    -----------
    ► www.economicshelp.org was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
    ► Economic Short Cuts amzn.to/3IgxupC
    ► 50 Essential Economic Ideas amzn.to/3IgxndG
    ► Cracking Economics. www.economicshelp.org/shop/cr...
    ► What Would Keynes Do? Amazon amzn.to/2xShqq4
    ► Economics Without the Boring Bits amzn.to/48T1hA9

Komentáře • 501

  • @economicshelp1
    @economicshelp1  Před 25 dny +20

    I forgot to do my sections "reasons to be more hopeful" section. Today's GDP growth 0.6% is welcome news. But, bear in mind real GDP per capita is still 1.2% lower than it was in Q4 2019 (before Covid) so would need many quarters of this kind of growth to change the narrative around UK economy.

    • @emrebennett7572
      @emrebennett7572 Před 25 dny +1

      Why did my comment bashing neoliberism get deleted? :0

    • @Witnessmoo
      @Witnessmoo Před 25 dny +7

      GDP grew 40% during WWII… but we were all on food rations near starvation. So nobody was richer despite 40% GDO growth.
      What people forget is that the GDP figure is a numbers trick: bullets and tanks count as products, soldiers getting paid salaries counted as ‘service providers’.
      Government numbers con game.
      Today, in post WWII, We are all poorer. A lot poorer. Not 1.2% poorer, but I’d say about 25% or so. The GDP stats are padded with government waste and largesse. And just total nonsense.

    • @emrebennett7572
      @emrebennett7572 Před 25 dny +3

      @@Witnessmoo also if on average companies increase their gdp by 10% but all cut wages by 10% then that counts as a 10% gdp growth despite most people being 10% poorer with that 20% wealth going to a select few business owners.
      This is one of the things going on in the US - technically they are having decent growth but the average Joe is getting poorer and poorer

    • @kevinu.k.7042
      @kevinu.k.7042 Před 24 dny

      @@emrebennett7572 You Tube has a weird and wacky algorithm which frequently deletes posts for no reason at all. I often post and refresh the page to find the post gone. Interestingly posts criticising this algorithm often get auto deleted too.

    • @kevinu.k.7042
      @kevinu.k.7042 Před 24 dny

      @@emrebennett7572 You Tube auto delete is flakey.

  • @vonder7
    @vonder7 Před 25 dny +127

    Uk is an odd country - the quality of life and standards are collapsing yet people seem to be interested more in what Harry and his wife had for breakfast or which millionaire scored in the last football game. Seems like people are more interested in latest about the rich and famous than their own miserable lives.

    • @shellyperera2010
      @shellyperera2010 Před 25 dny +31

      Maybe it's to distract them from their own lives?

    • @TheShortStory
      @TheShortStory Před 25 dny +27

      It’s what they’re being fed in their media diet. Incessantly

    • @pritapp788
      @pritapp788 Před 25 dny +12

      The Premier League is one of the last remaining English* success stories, for what it's worth.
      *domiciled in England but owners, players and even fans are mostly foreign

    • @OnlineEnglish-wl5rp
      @OnlineEnglish-wl5rp Před 25 dny

      Well when we voted against neoliberal globalisation in 2016 the Establishment did everything possible to defeat us.

    • @user-it7lf7kk8m
      @user-it7lf7kk8m Před 25 dny +6

      The matrix

  • @thegeneralmitch
    @thegeneralmitch Před 25 dny +56

    50 years of incompetence will do that to a country.

    • @SubjectiveFunny
      @SubjectiveFunny Před 21 dnem +1

      It's happening all over the world, the UK is not special.
      The boom times are over.

    • @FemboyLegendGD
      @FemboyLegendGD Před 20 dny

      @@SubjectiveFunny in the west* China seems to be superior than any western country in almost every metric, considering how the west is hostile towards them, with all kinds of sanctions, its incredible.

    • @AngelaVlahos
      @AngelaVlahos Před 6 hodinami

      knights of the world were always known as wealthy

  • @CodingAbroad
    @CodingAbroad Před 25 dny +72

    I know firsthand that if you need financial assistance if you’re old and unable to work or you need a care home you will NOT get it regardless of your circumstances. My father had dementia last year and was essentially penniless. We tried to get financial assistance for him which was denied. We tried to get him a care home which was also denied. Everyone romanticises the nhs and social care and you shouldn’t because in recent times it is dreadful. He died last year and after witnessing it and what could happen to me, I’m leaving the country

    • @shabbos-goy9407
      @shabbos-goy9407 Před 25 dny +8

      Wrong colour and religion
      Leave
      I have

    • @shellyperera2010
      @shellyperera2010 Před 25 dny +6

      We're leaving too.

    • @lidiapng5458
      @lidiapng5458 Před 25 dny +15

      Social care and the NHS are broken and have been for many years. It’s true that zero assistance is available, financial, medical or otherwise. The state only exists to collect the taxes and offers absolutely nothing in return. I was truly shaken at the total lack of humanity while looking after my husband for many years with no help. Local authority couldn’t be bothered to carry out the statutory assessment and fobbed me off for years! All illegal of course but this is how things are done. My husband died and it’s all in the past now. Recently I’ve sold the house, reclaimed by EU ID documents and I’m leaving the country soon. Nothing for me here. I can’t change the way things are and would rather live elsewhere where my money and skills can make a real difference.

    • @Yeeeeeboi
      @Yeeeeeboi Před 25 dny +2

      Me too!!good luck out there!

    • @MookMineola
      @MookMineola Před 25 dny +4

      If only your father had been an unmarried mother he would have received thousands monthly and a new home as well as endless help for his kiddies . And he would have never needed to have done a stroke in his life

  • @petermartin5030
    @petermartin5030 Před 25 dny +20

    We need to shift our overall focus from GDP growth to wellbeing and sustainability.

    • @pritapp788
      @pritapp788 Před 25 dny +2

      Correct but UK won't be scoring highly on that either. Probably worse off: high rates of obesity, alcohol and drug use, long term sickness and depression.

    • @ecognitio9605
      @ecognitio9605 Před 25 dny

      Can't do that in a cut-throat growth driven world. You either compete or slowly become a failed state.

  • @kubhlaikhan2015
    @kubhlaikhan2015 Před 25 dny +26

    Does 'Public Sector Net Investment' include the cost of bailing out Goldman Sachs and Nat West? What do we get back for those investments? What is the net return for allowing big corporations to pay little or no tax - even when they are foreign companies competing against unsubsidised British ones? And what exactly is the difference between "renationalising" the water and rail companies when really what will happen is that shareholders and directors will be given big payoffs for having wrecked companies that the taxpayer then has to rebuild? There are NO political solutions to Britain's problems until the corrupt people in charge are removed.

    • @OnlineEnglish-wl5rp
      @OnlineEnglish-wl5rp Před 25 dny

      Corporates have ransacked this country for decades

    • @MrCalls1
      @MrCalls1 Před 25 dny +2

      What is you point?
      No. Public sector net investment is a term used international to compare “net acquisition of fixed assets (such as roads, buildings and weapons systems) by the public sector, as “well as significant capital grants to prove sector, such as subsidies for industrial equipment.
      I suppose the nationalisation of water companies might account for PSNI in the year of nationalisation, but the year after only capital expenditure to construct NEW pipes and reservoirs would count. Maintenance is not the same, I think (not an accountant), because it’s just preventing depreciation which is subtracted from gross spending as fixed infrastructure decays each year.
      Corruption… is a problem but it’s kind of totally parallel to the PSNI discussion. PSNI is about increasing the formation of fixed capital the uk, ie the means of production (from a different perspective), be that rail to move goods or labour, roads the same, or machines to produce goods, or education to train labour(sort of, that’s contentious, most people/orgs don’t include university education, but they may include vocational training like carpentry apprentices), it’s fundamentally the only thing that can raise productivity, you either make people better as a job, or give them better tools. Corruption would/does introduce a waste in the process, and prevent investment(is all the lobbying against hs2 to support the airline industry), but it’s kind of not the point/the problem, the problem is the flow into the system is too low, as and when we pump more money in we can then worry about the corruption/mis allocation, but right now that’d be a red herring.

    • @kubhlaikhan2015
      @kubhlaikhan2015 Před 25 dny +4

      @@MrCalls1 If money is being squandered on unproductive bail outs it is not being invested. That is my point. And it is as true for banks as it is for military spending as it is for extravagant white elephant projects as it is for "green" carbon targets as it is for "renationalisation" of dead duck asset-stripped industries. The rich get richer the poor get poorer and the national infrastructure decays into ruin.

    • @debbiegilmour6171
      @debbiegilmour6171 Před 7 dny +1

      You refer to the 2008 recession I presume?
      The "return on investment" is in the banks continuing to be able to issue money and regular customers not losing all their savings like what happened with Northern Rock.
      You might handwave this as "oh it's just business, businesses go bust all the time" but the thing is, savers with banks are looking for security, not high risk business investments and when ordinary people off the street lose all their savings (and especially when they're not at fault (because they've been misled about the nature of what the bank does with their money)) it's a recipe for widespread destitution leading to lost opportunities, lost productivity, increased financial difficulties, rising homelessness, increasing health issues, rising criminality and eventual (serious) public disorder and or economic decline to collapse.

    • @debbiegilmour6171
      @debbiegilmour6171 Před 7 dny

      ​@@kubhlaikhan2015The bailouts literally prevented normal savers from losing their life savings. Idk why you'd call that unproductive.

  • @davidcarr2216
    @davidcarr2216 Před 25 dny +63

    This fiscal black hole is likely to get worse before it gets worse - fixed that for you.

    • @xtc2v
      @xtc2v Před 25 dny +6

      Yes....my thoughts when I heard him say it

    • @IainFrame
      @IainFrame Před 25 dny +1

      Exactly. Anyone who says that it will improve is the worst kind of conspiracy theorist.

  • @malcolmanon4762
    @malcolmanon4762 Před 25 dny +9

    So to sum up - where's all the bloody money going? Record peace time taxation and everything is going to rat s***t.

    • @musiknymph
      @musiknymph Před 23 dny +3

      Off-Shore accounts - tax-payers money has become a massive Brexit export 💸 🏝

  • @annaclarke7643
    @annaclarke7643 Před 25 dny +116

    Labour will be handed a poisoned chalice, after 14 years of conservative rule. Some Labour decisions will be unpopular and then the conservatives will be voted in again. It’s a virtual circle. The UK needs proportional representation, but once again history and tradition will be paramount. The UK is welded to outdated ideas at a high cost to real representation.

    • @jamesprivet
      @jamesprivet Před 25 dny +13

      Without PR, elected upper house and a Written Constitution there is no hope for the future.

    • @andrewcarter7503
      @andrewcarter7503 Před 25 dny

      Not entirely sure how PR would help. We'd end up with a mish-mash of compromise policies. And no guarantee that things would be more representative. Suppose the largest party - a few seats short of a majority - needs a coalition with a small party. That small party would insist on influence disproportionate to its size. Look at the Greens in Scotland. Only 7 seats but two cabinet ministers.

    • @jamesgeorge8915
      @jamesgeorge8915 Před 25 dny

      A poisoned chalice, lol - just like the conservatives did after labour blew up our economy and spent billions on an illegal war. Aren't we lucky to have politicians safeguarding the nations future! Who remembers brown selling off the countries gold at rock bottom prices😂 what a wankre

    • @user-it7lf7kk8m
      @user-it7lf7kk8m Před 25 dny +7

      PR is not a cure all. It has produced many issues where it is practiced. Someone needs to come up with a better system

    • @RichPober
      @RichPober Před 25 dny +6

      The UK needs direct democracy - it will come eventually when we elect to be governed by AI.

  • @ep1929
    @ep1929 Před 25 dny +11

    Anyone noticed the potholes are worse than ever this year?

  • @lindadonald348
    @lindadonald348 Před 25 dny +20

    No1 channel for uk economics

  • @arkatub
    @arkatub Před 25 dny +27

    I could shelter more homeless for less money with better conditions, I can't believe there is corruption in this departrment, it's murder.

  • @marialangley5528
    @marialangley5528 Před 25 dny +10

    Most builders can not work by the time they are 60

    • @andrewcarter7503
      @andrewcarter7503 Před 25 dny

      True. But nobody says they have to work as a builder after 60. There are other jobs.

    • @jillhargrave-george4510
      @jillhargrave-george4510 Před 25 dny +4

      Age discrimination is still rife..although illegal!

    • @pincermovement72
      @pincermovement72 Před 24 dny

      @@andrewcarter7503Try getting a job full stop in your fifties.

  • @penderyn8794
    @penderyn8794 Před 25 dny +37

    The problem with so many skilled migrants wanting to come to the UK and being able to get in through company sponsored schemes.... Is that many people who are technically very educated in a specialised area like myself (biotech) with industrial experience are being outcompeted at interview. The targeted foreign workers are better than me.... And I'm trying to improve..... But it's hard getting any job

    • @NoName-lo9ym
      @NoName-lo9ym Před 25 dny +20

      Aside from the fact that foreign workers will work for less, another problem is the refusal of many British employers to invest in their employees with professional qualifications - ensuring loyalty after getting a qualification is easily managed but they don't seem to care.

    • @albedo0point39
      @albedo0point39 Před 25 dny +7

      It’s all very well taking in a foreign worker on lower wages… works for us, works for them.
      But pretty soon we’re likely to see wage reporting by ethnicity added to the current reporting by sex. Corporates will then be forced to increase all those imported worker wages (assuming different ethnicity) to show ‘fairness’.
      In short, i think this assumption of foreign worker cost advantage will be very short lived.

    • @IbrahimSowunmi
      @IbrahimSowunmi Před 25 dny +5

      @@albedo0point39 If they're doing the same job as you to the same standard as you or better is it fair to pay them less? Additionally, In high skilled jobs, skilled migrants don't push down wages much, if at all.

    • @OnlineEnglish-wl5rp
      @OnlineEnglish-wl5rp Před 25 dny +6

      @@IbrahimSowunmi Of course they push down wages - and push up house prices - that's the whole purpose of it

    • @ilokivi
      @ilokivi Před 25 dny +3

      @@OnlineEnglish-wl5rp Immigrants entering the UK to carry out a highly skilled job, will be able to command a pay level which reflects the value placed on those skills and their scarcity. This contradicts the claim that immigrants depress wages. As they are not in control of housebuilding whereas the UK government and housebuilders are, control over housing stock supply and therefore prices lies with the latter.

  • @jacksmith5399
    @jacksmith5399 Před 24 dny +5

    Great video but honestly the decline of the UK is more easily seen by going into your local major city or high street: homelessness, drug and alcohol abuse, closed shops, litter everywhere, roads in poor condition, and a general sense of hopelessness. The long term sickness issue is also easily seen, walking along the street in the last few years I rarely see someone that actually looks healthy, usually amongst the backdrop soundscape of boy racers, screaming, fights, and sirens you can hear some of the most disgusting coughs from nearly everyone - when was the last time anyone saw a doctor?

  • @tealkerberus748
    @tealkerberus748 Před 25 dny +7

    Austerity is refusing to fix that leak in your roof because that would cost too much money and then wondering why your house is suddenly rotten and falling down around your ears.
    In other news, tax the rich. They're the ones with spare money - they can afford to pay tax like honest people do!

  • @jyu3005
    @jyu3005 Před 25 dny +4

    Given the status of the NHS, there won’t be so many 65+ as previously forecasted.

  • @emrebennett2857
    @emrebennett2857 Před 25 dny +90

    UK is such a great example that neoliberism and austerity are great for a country :')

    • @yellowgreen5229
      @yellowgreen5229 Před 25 dny

      The rich are better than us and deserve to rule us!

    • @chasdolphin7147
      @chasdolphin7147 Před 25 dny +10

      im gonna presume thats a joke??!! Right?!

    • @niceandcurly
      @niceandcurly Před 25 dny +3

      As opposed to the Cuban, Venezuelan and North Korean paradises

    • @nighttrain1236
      @nighttrain1236 Před 25 dny +1

      @@niceandcurly Indeed. It's one thing to demand change and an alternative but another to actually articulate policies.

    • @821Drifter128
      @821Drifter128 Před 25 dny

      What has neoliberalism got to do with anything?

  • @markb5803
    @markb5803 Před 24 dny +7

    Just leave the U.K if you can, it's a basket case. I packed in a well paid job and left in 2022 as i could no longer stomach having nett 52% of my money taken at source, only to see it then spent on making my life worse.

    • @robm5523
      @robm5523 Před 19 dny +1

      Agreed, I was living and working abroad for 13 years until covid redundancy forced me back to the UK. Living back here has been awful.
      Planning to leave again and hopefully see the back of the UK.

  • @petehoney1
    @petehoney1 Před 23 dny +3

    plenty of money for weapons and giving away money to escalate wars 🤔

  • @meanmachine6328
    @meanmachine6328 Před 25 dny +11

    There won't be a loss of fuel duty. It will be added or replaced to include electric cars

    • @TobotronPrime
      @TobotronPrime Před 25 dny +2

      electric charging in this regard is very tricky, at the moment I am charging my car for free off of my home solar, zero cost, zero tax, if I charge from the grid at home then I pay current price cap per unit and 5% VAT, if I charge at a public charger its very expensive unit pricing and 20% VAT
      I have a bmw i3 that has a petrol generator on-board if the main battery runs out - crazily its cheaper to buy petrol to burn to produce electricity than it is to charge at a public charger!
      imagine if they put duty on top of current public charger costs, it would be crazy! especially when certain people could charge at home for free or for at least domestic home prices
      that's why I think apart from kicking this can down the road so to speak they will either go pay per mile (which will cause riots) or have mega annual taxes on vehicles

    • @meanmachine6328
      @meanmachine6328 Před 25 dny +3

      @@TobotronPrime there will be something that is for sure.
      The government will not allow the loss of fuel duty income for the house of Lords to get their free pay checks and all the free money to waste on wallpaper

  • @paulmatthews9366
    @paulmatthews9366 Před 25 dny +11

    Hidden ? Anyone with any basic maths or logic skills with 5 minutes spare can work out that on every measure that matters were falling like a lift with the cables cut. But don't worry.... we grew .01%. Break out the champers.

    • @shellyperera2010
      @shellyperera2010 Před 25 dny +4

      The problem is most of the general public seem to be economically and financially illiterate.

    • @MookMineola
      @MookMineola Před 25 dny

      Actually I’m gonna break out the chicken noodle soup. I mean I at least have to be realistic, unlike local councils and the British Government

  • @peterwait641
    @peterwait641 Před 25 dny +4

    If privatized companies are foreign owned, profits flow out the country and tax is lowered by legal tax avoidance . This shifts more burden to the tax payer.

  • @mike747436
    @mike747436 Před 23 dny +2

    So much of what you say seems to point to chronic short term thinking and planning. A consequence of our adversarial FPTP electoral system?

  • @jamesprivet
    @jamesprivet Před 25 dny +5

    This is an excellent, honest, rational and much needed report thank you.

  • @GIRUxGIRU
    @GIRUxGIRU Před 25 dny +6

    Good morning. excellent vid as always, thanks

  • @fje1948
    @fje1948 Před 25 dny +2

    Exceptional informative - Thank you!

  • @zigglewigler
    @zigglewigler Před 25 dny +3

    Another great piece of work. Britain would benefit from having Question Time removed from the schedule and Economics Help UK shown in its place, and forcing everyone to watch it, taking notes. All the political tribes will have sound bites that contradict the facts laid out here.

  • @paulbo9033
    @paulbo9033 Před 25 dny +6

    If we cant get growth going we're seriously screwed. What I'm interested in knowing is how much of the £100BN a year lost by exiting the EU, is permanently gone regardless of whether we re-joined.
    We need a new economic model. Its hard to see where its coming from if arbitraging US-EU opportunities is no longer an option.
    One thing is certain, taxes will definitely go up, here's hoping it's mainly corporation tax and VAT. Doubt it though, Labour are basically Tory lite.

    • @user-it7lf7kk8m
      @user-it7lf7kk8m Před 25 dny

      It was never there. Made up by those who actually did benefit from the power broking EU to con the peasants. The EU cost us plenty .

  • @MrFSV
    @MrFSV Před 18 dny

    You definitely have my sub. This content is next level. For me Eledator was the turning point. Please keep doing what you do and keep being you, love it.

  • @nataliaseweryn
    @nataliaseweryn Před 18 dny

    Thank you for the vid 👍🏻

  • @simonbamford8441
    @simonbamford8441 Před 24 dny +3

    Cameron and Osborne were the main cause of the Country’s ills.

    • @jamesbarbour8400
      @jamesbarbour8400 Před 22 dny +2

      Have your forgotten about the War Criminal, Tony Blair ! ?

  • @niceandcurly
    @niceandcurly Před 25 dny +11

    They're going to mean test government pensions and raise the retirement age.
    They will tax gas boilers and gas stoves.
    They SHOULD tax the hell out of ultra processed foods, but that will never happen.

    • @OnlineEnglish-wl5rp
      @OnlineEnglish-wl5rp Před 25 dny

      The freedom loving Right wing would go beserk if harmful products were taxed

    • @Darren-pq5oc
      @Darren-pq5oc Před 25 dny

      They should tax the poor more,

    • @harrytanfield193
      @harrytanfield193 Před 25 dny

      Too much many government hands in the back pockets of corporations 😂

  • @conorpatrickmccarthy6800
    @conorpatrickmccarthy6800 Před 25 dny +6

    Happy Friday

  • @slavmarin7827
    @slavmarin7827 Před 24 dny

    thank you

  • @KevinMorrison-xj2bt
    @KevinMorrison-xj2bt Před 24 dny +1

    We were fed up with being taxed to death and ripped off for everything 20 years ago living in the 'YUK', so sold up everything and escaped for a much better life all round in Sunny Cyprus as 'YUK' tax exiles. 😎😀

  • @Vroomfondle1066
    @Vroomfondle1066 Před 25 dny

    Tejvan, i'd like to see you address Richard Murphy's position stated in his 'Taxing Wealth Report'.

  • @RoofLight00
    @RoofLight00 Před 25 dny +5

    Tories left this country bankrupt with the public picking up the huge bill for their incompetence and ineptitude. Coupled with a failure of investment in infrastructure (gas storage, public utilities, schools, roads etc) over 15 years has led to the decline of the uk which is now a backwater.
    The uk has self immolated and left itself exposed to financial insecurity.
    Coupled with a national debt in the trillions that is costing the country 95% of its GDP to pay back.
    There needs to be a period of stability for a minimum of 20 years to correct the course.

  • @fakename45
    @fakename45 Před 25 dny +8

    Borrow heavily, build more housing and nationalise essential industry

    • @manoj1350
      @manoj1350 Před 25 dny

      😂😂😂 uk has no industrial capacity dum dum it's living on colonial loot and tax evaders if they do that uk will be as relevant as Pakistan

    • @damianbutterworth2434
      @damianbutterworth2434 Před 25 dny +10

      More borrowing????

    • @pritapp788
      @pritapp788 Před 25 dny +5

      At over 100% debt to GDP and interest rates not going down to 2010s levels, there is not much room for borrowing further.

    • @tealkerberus748
      @tealkerberus748 Před 25 dny +1

      No more borrowing. Just tax the rich.

    • @Vroomfondle1066
      @Vroomfondle1066 Před 25 dny

      @@pritapp788 Just print the money - just like the government does every single time it spends. The borrowing is a fallacy - the bonds are issued after the money has been printed to facilitate monetary policy, slow down potential inflation and give the financial sector somewhere to park it's cash. They are not a requirement for government spending but a hold-over from the Gold Standard ere.

  • @Zxcvbueisn444
    @Zxcvbueisn444 Před 24 dny +2

    The pensions are worst in western world in uk although one of highest tax rates.

  • @joshhyyym
    @joshhyyym Před 23 dny

    6:00 the y axis, is that per 10k or per 100k? It is written as 10,0000.
    Great video as always. It's important to keep this in mind when judging the new government. It's so depressing what's been done to my country.

  • @fyank1
    @fyank1 Před 21 dnem +1

    It will take decades to undo the DAMAGE the TORIES have done.

  • @shellyperera2010
    @shellyperera2010 Před 25 dny +2

    Thanks for a comprehensive and data and fact based review of the UK economy. The future of the UK is grim. We are going back to Victorian times I fear. The post war boom years and generation were a one off.

    • @GK123
      @GK123 Před 25 dny

      Not a one off, just the aftermath of the peak of the British empire. Downturn is the only possibility. Nothing lasts forever. Debt, demographics, weak and lazy people. All symptoms of past empires

  • @whowantstoknow3141
    @whowantstoknow3141 Před 25 dny

    Very interesting analysis. It will also be interesting to see how the next government copes with the technological disruptions predicted by the likes of RethinkX and Tony Seba, if they are accurate that is. I would love to see you do an analysis of the economic impact of their predictions assuming they are right.

  • @MarkCW
    @MarkCW Před 24 dny +1

    You remind me of a British weather forecaster with a smile on your face as you deliver bad news. Thanks for the good information though!

  • @jakehall4493
    @jakehall4493 Před 25 dny

    Question….if you point to losing tax revenue through cigarette tax is there not a case for how much that saves NHS? If so, why wasn’t this mentioned?

  • @JamesBrown-ev3eb
    @JamesBrown-ev3eb Před 22 dny +2

    Austerity was a disgusting policy, especially at a time of historically low interest rates. Cameron and Osborne have never really been held to account for what they’ve done to our country. As if that wasn’t bad enough they then left us to deal with brexit! Is there a case to be made for Cameron being the worst prime minister of post war times?

    • @SassySkylar
      @SassySkylar Před 9 dny

      Surely that accolade goes to Liz Truss

  • @davegubbins4428
    @davegubbins4428 Před 25 dny +2

    typical tory; scorched earth policy with the resulting loot gifted to the very wealthy.
    same as tory ever was.

  • @einseitig3391
    @einseitig3391 Před 25 dny

    Bravo. This is by far one of your best videos.
    Worse than it looks.
    It details how complex the mess is that Britain finds itself.
    All that you detail are symptoms of a country that does not know how to achieve economic growth having had an act of god in the form of North Sea oil revenues.
    In the real world the UK has sold itself as a relatively low cost place to do business.
    Outside of Europe, even with the benefit of English language, Britain does not appear to be an attractive a place to do business with relatively low skills and poor infrastructure.
    Higher taxes are all we can really control.
    The huge sums of pension funds means that any government would be fool to ignore it.
    How you effectively make public private pensions is the intriguing question.

  • @g.p616
    @g.p616 Před 24 dny +1

    CORRECTION- There will be NO loss of fuel duty taxes in the move to electric. Smart Meters can detect spikes in home power consumption from plugging in your car. When this spike is detected this electricity will be taxed at petrol duty rate. Why do you think the electricity companies have been pushing Smart meters so much?!🤣

  • @jasonaris5316
    @jasonaris5316 Před 25 dny +14

    Everyone wants the goodies but no one wants to pay for them

    • @Aendavenau
      @Aendavenau Před 25 dny

      Most of it was payed for but a group of people stole and or/lied until they got their hands on the public goods, then they runned it down to the ground while burrowing as much as possible and gave the money from the loans to themselves. Repeat that process everywhere and in a million small and large ways and you have robbed the future of a country. The UK is runned by politicians who believe thiefs are the moral and economical future of their country. They are fools and/or corrupt.

    • @lcship1905
      @lcship1905 Před 24 dny

      Certainly not, particularly if one has arrived in the country in an irregular manner! Govt spending is notoriously ill judged - perhaps they should start with turning off the tap to 'kraine ??

  • @SS-ce1py
    @SS-ce1py Před 12 dny

    good examples of how trying to save money buy cutting services actually ends up costing more in the long run.

  • @stephenmatura1086
    @stephenmatura1086 Před 25 dny +3

    I always wonder if AI would do a better job of running the country than politicians.

    • @user-fg6kr4zf7g
      @user-fg6kr4zf7g Před 5 dny

      My cat could probably do a better job of running the country lol!

  • @andrewtaylor6737
    @andrewtaylor6737 Před 25 dny +14

    One positive, house prices will continue to decline as we head into a depression!

    • @jakehall4493
      @jakehall4493 Před 25 dny +7

      Continue? They’re certainly not declining at the moment besides if I had a £ every time someone said house prices are due to decline I’d be a very rich man

    • @andrewtaylor6737
      @andrewtaylor6737 Před 25 dny

      @@jakehall4493 Just give it time, the pain hasn't even started yet & still plenty of covid free cash splashing around!
      Still in the honeymoon period, but things will change dramatically in the coming years!!

    • @tealkerberus748
      @tealkerberus748 Před 25 dny

      You're joking, right? When ordinary people can't afford to buy a house, that just makes it easier for the rich. Then they rent you back the house they took from you, and push the government to raise interest rates so they'll have even more money from their other investments to buy a few more houses in your neighbourhood.

    • @stephenthomas3085
      @stephenthomas3085 Před 25 dny

      Ah but, will they...?

    • @andrewtaylor6737
      @andrewtaylor6737 Před 25 dny

      @@stephenthomas3085 Only a matter of time, the global depression hasn't even started yet & still plenty of free money washing around.

  • @crispyduck1706
    @crispyduck1706 Před 21 dnem

    Fuel duty will be replaced with a charge per mile tax

  • @fern8580
    @fern8580 Před 25 dny +2

    aging? I don't understand that there is a problem in that regard, in fact only 25% of the population reaches the age of 70, in other words, 75% of people die before the age of 70, a specialist to do the light on this subject?
    An example ? if you had 45,000,000 citizens in the UK in 1955, 11,250,000 would still be alive in 2024, so 33,750,000 died, but they contributed to retirement (often others...), paid taxes... .but where did the money go?

  • @Jordan-fd6cx
    @Jordan-fd6cx Před 25 dny +2

    16 years of the same doomer phrases.
    "It's going to get worse before it gets better"
    "Tough times and choices are ahead"
    "We need to tighten our belts"
    "The good times are over"
    Heard this constant misery for over half my life in the country. Last time there was any kind of hope or positive vision was between 2015 to 2019, that's long dead and buried now.
    Young people are trying to work harder, longer and smarter to try and get ahead of the decline, but most of the time they have sod-all to show for it.
    It's all so bloody depressing.

  • @erongi233
    @erongi233 Před 15 dny

    Not to mention that QE over a long period and with increasing dosages pushed down interest rates which pushed up asset prices including,of course, house prices and the effects of over-quantitative easing, which should have been stopped in 2013, continue to be felt in the generational divide over house ownership and increased costs to the govt in supplying housing benefit who otherwise could not afford any housing for themselves in the over stimulated asset prices market. Not to mention costs to the BoE of QE which the taxpayer via the Treasury has to recompense at around £30 billion a year. An impartial inquest of the use of QE is called for if impartial economists can be found anywhere.

  • @pritapp788
    @pritapp788 Před 25 dny

    Soundtrack:
    Muse - Supermassive Black Hole

  • @nnonotnow
    @nnonotnow Před 25 dny +2

    What is neoliberalism simply explained?
    Neoliberalism is contemporarily used to refer to market-oriented reform policies such as "eliminating price controls, deregulating capital markets, lowering trade barriers" and reducing, especially through privatization and austerity, state influence in the economy.

  • @Smith34567
    @Smith34567 Před 24 dny +8

    The Tories basically wrecked the economy with the 2010 austerity budget, instead of investing in the economy to get it back on its feet after the banker created financial crash, they cut budgets. The banks should never have been bailed out.

    • @crispyduck1706
      @crispyduck1706 Před 21 dnem

      So we should have let the banks go bust with all our money in them - fool

  • @FuerteDeVega
    @FuerteDeVega Před 23 dny

    Best way to get taxes and fix housing crisis. Is Tax people for second house basically means if Family got 3 houses they have to pay interest on third.

  • @fredmidtgaard5487
    @fredmidtgaard5487 Před 10 dny

    The UK has more oil and gas than Norway. Still, for years the UK has spent all of the income from it, while Norway has built up the world's largest government investment fund. Of course, Norway is relatively small, and the UK is 10 times bigger, still, it is a bit strange that so little has been saved in the UK. The Norwegian Government Oil Fund is currently more than 1,62 Trillion US dollars or around 300.000 US dollars per person. That is around 1,2 million US dollars for an average family. The UK could have had similar amounts with better politicians.

  • @sidkings
    @sidkings Před 25 dny

    @6:03 "per 10'0000 peple" 🤔

  • @Anonofyourbusiness8565

    Could you explain why student loans are not a public investment? I'm a complete layman, but things like educational spending sounds like a public investment. Happy to be corrected.

    • @andrewcarter7503
      @andrewcarter7503 Před 25 dny +1

      Depends what it's being spent on. Do we need more media studies degree educated citizens?

    • @Anonofyourbusiness8565
      @Anonofyourbusiness8565 Před 25 dny

      @@andrewcarter7503 This is an argument that it's sometimes not a wise investment, but not an argument that it's not a public investment.

  • @ThomasBoyd-ex5vr
    @ThomasBoyd-ex5vr Před 25 dny +1

    Awesome.

  • @ColinHarvey78
    @ColinHarvey78 Před 25 dny

    Wouldn’t improving productivity be a good place to start turning things around. Increasing public sector wages would be an effective way to increase productivity, boost spending in the economy and raise tax revenues. OK it means a bit more “public debt” in the short term but the later increases in tax revenues would sort that out. Alongside increased spending on infrastructure, which would have multiple benefits, it feels like that might be the way out.
    It’s likely reaching full employment would increase inflation so public sector wage growth would have to be quite carefully managed but it feels like it might be one of the few levers a new government would have. Increasing revenue to public sectors and growing their capacity (e.g. NHS, social care) would have many benefits for us all

  • @christophernunn943
    @christophernunn943 Před 24 dny

    Two points not properly considered here, first EV vehicles and loss of revenues from ice revenue. As the Ev plan unfolds public charging stations will become taxable making up for lost revenue. Home charging can be seen via smart meters and or dedicated home EV charging connections which will collect tax too, wherever you connect a tax will apply. Second Pensions you have not taken note of current thinking, it’s a benefit and therefore can be subject to eligibility DWP are being given powers to look at bank statements of all recipients, they will have the power to adjust downward according to what they see. There are a great number of recipients on large private pensions who don’t really need state pension so it will be rescinded. This is how revenue will come back to the treasury

  • @spacetime3
    @spacetime3 Před 25 dny

    Its grim but situation, but we cant do what UK businesses and UK governments have traditionally done and not invest in key growth areas and infrastructure, it will only make things like an aging populations and increasing debt re-repayments off even worst with out at least some areas growing. A wealth tax of sorts will still likely be the only option as industries such automotive and smoking changes. Selling off public services has clearly clearly been the worst decision we made rather than making improvements.

  • @oikkuoek
    @oikkuoek Před 23 dny

    Rising retirement age decreases productivity and lowers quality. When you have to expand your work for a longer period of time, you simply can't work as hard as you did before. To increase productivity, the overall work load per worker needs to be less. Shorter shifts and earlier retirement age. This is the only way to get more and better product. The item for sale always suffers when the worker is burnt out knowing the only way out is death.

  • @chrisgilmore2957
    @chrisgilmore2957 Před 20 dny +1

    Could we not just means test pensions at a minimum? Seems silly to means test everything else but if there's a pensioner with a massive pension, they're still able to draw it out. We wouldn't give a millionaire jobs seekers so why would we give them a pension?

  • @jgalt155
    @jgalt155 Před 25 dny +13

    The Tories have trousered the lot, hound them at every opportunity.

  • @lynjames4306
    @lynjames4306 Před 24 dny

    Something A 3 Year old could have Told the British Government it was in the 💩 !!!! Im Afraid 🤣🤣🤣🤣

  • @silvafox7719
    @silvafox7719 Před 22 dny

    The answer lies in taxing the super wealthy. Close tax loops and tax havens down. Millionaires and billionaires are syphoning money out of the productive economy daily. Every pound that leaves the UK ends up in the hands of the foreign companies that own the utilities, trains, water and food. The hedge fund companies, investment companies buy up housing and anything else they can get their hands on, to make profit. As a nation we need to put people before profit or there will be no homes for the majority of younger people, just a small pool of wealth concentrated in the larger cities, and a monopolised population forced to rent at market rates for the rest of their lives.
    The government are powerless due to them borrowing £800 billion throughout Covid. That money still exists, it's not burned wood. The people that have it, will begin to spend it when interest rates are lowered and things will get even worse. That debt will all head offshore, and the UK will suffer.

  • @louistan7560
    @louistan7560 Před 25 dny

    An opportunity to excell. In fact, the situation is so bad that anything Labour does to improve conditions will be greatly appreciated

  • @alfred-vz8ti
    @alfred-vz8ti Před 24 dny

    i recommend getting democracy.
    management by public service, directed by regular and frequent referendum, controlled by citizen initiative. will have to give up monarchy.
    really, there is no alternative.

  • @xtc2v
    @xtc2v Před 25 dny +17

    "The other solution to an ageing population is immigration".......I've news for you.... We have had millions in and the past figures show that Gdp per Capita has flatlined. They are of no net benefit

    • @mrmeldrew693
      @mrmeldrew693 Před 25 dny +12

      That is before any other issues with mass migration are discussed.
      We had newly elected local councillors screaming about their god and Palestine last week.......their remit is stuff like bin collections and potholes.

    • @paulmatthews9366
      @paulmatthews9366 Před 25 dny

      They are however deleting your culture and history. If you're a globalist or run the EU there won't be anyone left to resist you because no-one will care. So on that front it's working wonders

    • @user-it7lf7kk8m
      @user-it7lf7kk8m Před 25 dny

      There are plenty of potholes in gaza

    • @andrewcarter7503
      @andrewcarter7503 Před 25 dny +2

      Net immigration to the UK between 1979 and 1997 was c170,000. Not a year, in total. Net immigration 2010 to date, c3,805,000. Anyone feel better for it?

    • @simonstones1918
      @simonstones1918 Před 25 dny

      @@andrewcarter7503no I feel much much….much worse!

  • @user-ov7hp2cw1h
    @user-ov7hp2cw1h Před 24 dny

    It is going to be so bad , two to three times ,worse the we think !

  • @malcolm8564
    @malcolm8564 Před 23 dny

    They can easily make up for the loss of car fuel tax by taxing aircraft and marine fuels which they should be doing anyway.

  • @simonsadler9360
    @simonsadler9360 Před 5 dny

    My Spains policy is to have appt with doctor in 3 days !

  • @robertnorman4306
    @robertnorman4306 Před 23 dny

    To much damage by the tories Labour can't dig us out of a hole its going to take a very very long time trying no doubt screaming at each other over the table 🤔🤨

  • @BoredomIncarnate1
    @BoredomIncarnate1 Před 25 dny

    Short-termism doesn't work? What a surprise...
    If they moved things like capital gains and dividend taxes to a scaling system on par with income tax (up to 45% or even higher for people earning millions), that'd probably bring in a chunk of change, of course with some caveats like your primary residential property being fixed at the lower rate.

  • @AngelaVlahos
    @AngelaVlahos Před 7 dny

    partner up

  • @punditgi
    @punditgi Před 25 dny +1

    Fingers crossed that Labour can perform miracles. 😮

    • @jamesbarbour8400
      @jamesbarbour8400 Před 22 dny

      What ! With their track record where finance is concerned - gimme a break ffs !

    • @punditgi
      @punditgi Před 22 dny +1

      @@jamesbarbour8400 The Tory sleaze crooks are worse. Maybe Alternativ fuer Deutschland can start a party in Britain and get your vote. 🥶

  • @paullarne
    @paullarne Před 25 dny +3

    Demographics. Health Spending goes up, tax income comes down, so things have to change. Service levels go down or taxes go up.

    • @TheShortStory
      @TheShortStory Před 25 dny +1

      Yes it’s a challenge, and it will cost everyone. But it is manageable if the government dares to spend smartly. Cut the private sector out again, and spend today on preventative care that will lower the trajectory of future expense increases. That is the opposite of what we’ve seen from the current lot

  • @mrsulzer66
    @mrsulzer66 Před 25 dny

    Taxes ⬆️, the only solution. You can only kick the can down the road so much.

  • @paulsheehan2998
    @paulsheehan2998 Před 21 dnem

    Bulid houses
    Rent them out for profit
    Don't sell them

  • @starbright1400
    @starbright1400 Před 25 dny

    Australia has these isses x 100

  • @patdbean
    @patdbean Před 25 dny

    3:47 no you have not lost the income , they just tax it instead.

  • @jakeblair4215
    @jakeblair4215 Před 19 dny

    We need a wrotten constitution.
    Most people dont even know what that is

  • @williamkennedy5492
    @williamkennedy5492 Před 25 dny +7

    We need real people in politics and the civil service not the fools we currently have, This weekend i had to take my daughter to A and E, it was an all night stint she is 5 years old, eventually at 0750 my wife saw the doctor my daughter crying in pain, he said she can go home, I am disgusted with our NHS its not fit for purpose and is a killing machine if your an older person.
    My pension has gone up GREAT but that's till fiscal drag takes hold and i am now worse off this tax year that last. Cluck this government and its out of touch advisors !
    Why are we sacrificed on the madness of net zero ? Inflation is down so we are told but its the same inflation that drove the cost of living up to an all time high and that's not coming down it stays there.. I am sick to death of politicians and their lies !

    • @Darren-pq5oc
      @Darren-pq5oc Před 25 dny

      The nhs has been crap for years, but people are not allowed to say its bad

  • @jellybean8167
    @jellybean8167 Před 25 dny

    But..Schhhh don`t mention the `B´word.... OK?

  • @emiliajojo5703
    @emiliajojo5703 Před 25 dny +2

    Don't mention the belefant in the room.

  • @stratosphereartstudio
    @stratosphereartstudio Před 23 dny

    Say thanks to Boris and Sunak

  • @gdwlaw5549
    @gdwlaw5549 Před 25 dny

    What happened to the 350 Million?

  • @tryleraaron9244
    @tryleraaron9244 Před 25 dny +27

    I'm so happy I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever,hoping to retire next year.. Investment should always be on any creative man's heart for success in life

    • @adamalker71
      @adamalker71 Před 25 dny

      Thanks for the advice! I'm new to financial planning and wasn't sure where to start. Any tips on finding a reliable financial adviser or resource to guide beginners?

    • @lea5898
      @lea5898 Před 25 dny

      As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor that is verified by finra and SEC to keep you accountable. I'm guided by a widely known financial consultant Stacey Macken

    • @arktom7335
      @arktom7335 Před 25 dny

      Truly, investing has changed my perspective on how one can succeed in life; working multiple jobs isn't the optimal way to attain financial freedom and unfortunately, we discover this later in life. Currently earn as much as 12 grand weekly and this has improved my financial life

    • @raphfelimax2713
      @raphfelimax2713 Před 25 dny

      Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn't know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super

    • @waynes4369
      @waynes4369 Před 25 dny

      Yes I can believed that, I got victory with her, was so sad after receiving the first pay knowing I invested so low with fear

  • @rangerwhite7091
    @rangerwhite7091 Před 17 dny

    It’s not looking good is it.

  • @johndover3626
    @johndover3626 Před 25 dny +3

    A brillliantly revealing appraisal. How certain politicians in the U.K. and USA can claim that the answer to economic woes is simply tax cuts is beyond comprehension. You've converted me to socialism (with a human face).

  • @lindadonald348
    @lindadonald348 Před 25 dny +2

    Have you ever thought about moving abroad? and why buy a house recently in uk if you see dire future as a learned gent? I moved away, genuinely curious if its a family thing or familiarity or living the uk housing dream

  • @user-gw9yx2wx5g
    @user-gw9yx2wx5g Před 23 dny

    Higher taxes is the answer, I am not taxable.