A RARE Poker Situation [Can He FOLD???]
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- čas přidán 4. 07. 2024
- Seth Davies is no stranger to huge final tables against the best players in the world. But he found himself in a rather unique spot on the river with just half a big blind left in his stack when Jonathan Little bet enough to put him all-in.
Thinking about ICM (Independent Chip Model) is crucial during final tables. When someone at the table is extremely short-stacked and you are second or third in chips you should look to play more defensively. If you are facing a raise from the chip leader, you should play more passively with hands like Ace-King, which you would typically choose to 3-bet with. You want to avoid busting before the shortest stack at the table so your strategy needs to adapt accordingly.
Jonathan Little ‘FieryJustice’, ’Jcardshark’, ‘JonLittle’ is in the top 150 on the all time money list with over $8,900,000 in total live earnings. He has 2 World Poker Tour (WPT) titles, both of which were for over $1,000,000. He won the WPT Season VI (2007-2008) Player of the Year award. Jonathan is a 38 year old professional poker player from the U.S.A. He is also the founder of PokerCoaching.com.
Seth Davies is a professional poker player from the U.S.A. with over $23,500,000 in live tournament earnings, putting him in the top 35 on the all time money list. His biggest cash of $1,078,347 came in the 2023 $100,000 buy-in Pokerstars Caribbean Adventure (PCA) in Nassau. Davies has 1 World Poker Tour (WPT) title, he won the C$3,500 No Limit Hold'em WPT Canadian Spring Championship, Kahnawake in 2016. In 2022 he won a European Poker Tour (EPT) event in Monte Carlo to earn his first EPT title.
Justin Zaki is a professional poker player from the U.S.A. with over $5,300,000 in live tournament earnings, putting him in the top 330 on the all time money list.
The 2024 PokerGo Cup was a series of eight No-Limit Hold'em poker tournaments with buy-ins ranging from $10,000 - $25,000 played from January 25 to February 3, 2024 and held inside the PokerGO Studio at ARIA Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada.
$25,000 - 2024 PokerGO Cup Event #8 - Results
1st: Jonathan Little U.S.A - $453,750
2nd: Justin Zaki - U.S.A - $288,750
3rd: Justin Saliba ‘Jsaliba2’ ‘JustGTO’ - U.S.A - $192,500
4th: John Riordan - U.S.A - $137,500
5th: Seth Davies - U.S.A - $110,000
6th: Shaniel Stokes - U.S.A - $82,500
🔍 Preflop:
With blinds at 25,000/50,000 and a 50,000 big blind ante, Justin Zaki, the chip leader at this final table, raises from the hijack to 120,000 with A6 of spades. Jonathan Little opts to call rather than 3-bet with AKo in the cutoff. After the button and small blind fold, the action is on Seth Davies in the big blind with A9o. He calls with only 20,000 chips remaining, and they head to the flop three-way.
💸 Flop - Th 7d 5d:
The ten-high, two-diamond board misses everyone, and Little remains ahead with Big Slick. All three poker professionals check, and they head to the turn.
💣 Turn - Qd:
The Q of diamonds on the turn doesn’t improve Davies, who checks with ace-high. Zaki, who didn’t hit a pair or pick up a backdoor straight draw, decides not to put in a delayed continuation bet as he follows suit with another check. Little now has a gutshot straight draw and a king-high backdoor flush draw, as well as still having the best hand with ace-king high. He continues to take the passive route & checks as they head to the river.
🌊 River -Kc:
The K of clubs on the river sees Davies check for a third and final time, likely hoping to get to showdown with his ace-high. Zaki also checks with ace-high and a worse kicker. Little has improved to a pair of kings on the river and fires out a small value bet of 150,000. Davies is visibly distressed as to how to proceed with less than half a big blind remaining. But will he call, getting unbelievably good pot odds, or will he fold and be left with a chip and a chair? Stay tuned to the end of this poker video to find out!
Jonathan Little analyzes live poker hands from TV poker shows such as Poker After Dark, Hustler Casino Live, The Lodge Poker Club & PokerGO. He also analyzes popular poker vloggers such as Rampage Poker, Brad Owen, Jaman Burton, Ashley Sleeth, Wolfgang Poker and others!
You will also find many poker hands on this channel that contain some of the biggest names in the poker world such as; Daniel Negreanu, Phil Hellmuth, Phil Ivey, Doug Polk, Garrett Adelstein, Tom ‘Durrrr’ Dwan, Dan ‘Jungleman’ Cates, Fedor Holz & many more!
#pokerstrategy #pokergo #highstakespoker
What would YOU have done with my hand preflop? 🤔
I see the call good because you want davies to go all in and if saki calls you rip it all in and the result ends the same
snap all in and everyone folds except QQ, KK and AA. Been there, done that. Some people fold QQ against me but they tend to think I am tight like a virgin
@@rogelioorozco3154 BB would have called an allin with his stack anyway, He wouldn't find a fold here with A9
Double blocking the pairs that you aren't flipping with and flipping or better with everything else. Min click to induce a raise from the big stack who's bluff frequency is the highest or just rip it and get the fold there. You won an extra 90k from the short stack playing it the way you did and a pay jump but if he folds you have a good chance of getting reraised with a min click from the early position opener. Guess it would depend whether you are valuing the chips or the pay jump more at this point.
@@PokerCoaching you played pretty close to perfect, but we don’t expect anything less from you ✌🏻❤️
Having AK in Texas hold'em is as cool as having a house on the beach, but the sun needs to come out, otherwise it's not that cool anymore.😂
One thing I wish you had addressed here is the equity in the call versus equity in folding and being forced all-in on the next hand, so basically his equity here against his equity with a random hand against 2-4 opponents. I think that should be another consideration in the decision along with the current pot odds, because all of his real money equity is in surviving and laddering, not chips. I'm not sure how to balance that with the very different pot sizes because obviously winning this pot makes him a lot more likely to ladder than winning the next one and I'd really love to hear how you'd approach adding that factor in to this analysis.
Yes but what exactly is his equity here? Is it more than zero?
I dont think you should call, but the amount of resignation I would have at this point might make me call
If he isn't all-in pre what scenario is he folding if not this one?
Congratulations on your win, J Little. Thank you for all you do for the poker community.
My pleasure!!
Congrats on the win!
GG, JL.
Video just started and Jonathan already has a great time haha
It makes me wonder. If he folded, would the change in players, change in cards dealt, rippled enough that you end up in a spot where you don’t win?
It would change from a win to a “maybe? 70% chance” to win… (all players positions might have changed”)
Davies was in the BB, next hand he would be the SB and be automatically all in (blinds were 25k/50k, he had 20k left) with what is likely a garbage hand and be out anyways.
Did you pose for that thumbnail?
The problem is, Seth is about to be all in from the sb. I don't think he's going to see much better. He could be chopping, although unlikely, so it's tough there. GG.
True, he may not but he's eligible for the 20k plus the bb ante and you know you're not good. Maybe you get lucky and have a couple free looks.
The problem is, he's all-in on the SB next hand. If it weren't for that, snap fold. Probably a fold as-is, but worth considering.
An auto allin on the SB is an infinitely better spot than this one, so yeah just fold. JL is not trying to create opening for zaki with the ICM pressure on himself, when there's zero sidepot threeways and if davies had pair he would have to call. This is literally a zero bluff situation.
@Young-ep8ik I mostly agree but JL *can* bluff because he's in no danger of busting. If JL gets raised, he simply folds. Value bet / fold / shove / call is the only way JL risks an ICM disaster.
Getting re-bluffed is a huge concern, tho.
@@DatAceTho The fact that bluffing does not lead to busting is a very poor reason to do so. It's like saying JL has bluff here because it's only -$50k ev but never -$200k. I suggest you address directly the points coach and I made on why bluffing here is bad then we can start the discussion.
@Young-ep8ik Ah, but I only said that he *can* bluff, not that it's a good spot to bluff. I believe JL could find a tiny selection of bluffs. You claim it's a zero bluff situation, but Davies seems to disagree. I don't know you but I'll take Davies opinion over yours until I do.
@@DatAceTho JL said it's a fold, but that in itself is useless unless he gives valid reason to support it (he did). I wouldn't value anyone's opinion solely based on who they are, especially their opinion was expressed in the heat of the moment as is in this case.
There's not a single hand he can beat by the river vs two players. You'd be praying for a miracle by calling unless vs total donks, or if someone bet 20k specifically, otherwise they're never bluffing, especially not Jonathan Little who I would figure tighter in my mind and wouldn't be pulling some crazy shenanigans to bluff the 20k stack out of the pot.
Fold, if ur flatting AK bc ur tryna stay alive ur not bluffing the river for the same reason you didn't bet any other street, XR from Zaki
I don't think he's ever good there but it's pretty close bc he's forced all in next hand and can win a little bit less than 1/3 of what is in the pot right now if he gets iso'd.
For all these reasons, calling there might be ok. Pretty sure it's super close in terms of EV though.
If Davies folds, what do you do when Zaki shoves?
Can we see how the rest of the tournament played out?
Not really a million to one, even if the odds are pretty damn good. Really hard to find any bluffs in your range that he beats. Some suited Ax, but that isn't enough from your range and you might not decide to bluff those OTR (if you even have them pre)
Yesterday, I wiggled into the money of a small Vegas tourney with ONE single chip and two players busted before I did.
ICM! That's kind of the fun of the tourney, trying to survive the bubble and move up the ladder. No matter what Dnegs says.
@@YTSparty Judging from your name and logo, I believe we have much more in common than poker. I also went to MSU back in the Duffy Daugherty days. Grew up on River Terrace Dr. across the street from Akers Hall. Went to Okemos High School.
davies is smaall blind next hand so may as well call?
Once you have two people in with A9o with his stack you probably just fold, not flat call.
In your spot youre probably raising pre to take it down there
he should of folded preflop and try to get headsup in futer hands
started to watch and was surprised you didn't go all in but called. And then you said you made a mistake.
If you know Zaki that well then you don't bet Qd but you have a gut shot and FD so 2bb would have worked for the most of the players since Q is in your range
50/50
Depends on payouts
For me it's an insta call. 600,000 in chips vs 20,000. Putting me out of my misery vs having some chips to play with. Jonathan's closing the action. Unless I know Jonathan never bluffs there I have to call.
"I won, I'm the champion..... that's good" :D
I think this breakdown is less about the exact strategy of this hand and more a lowkey method of pointing out that it's worth it to save yourself that one bet in a tournament setting. With two people in the hand, the odds Davies' A-9 is best drop quite a bit, and even if it is best, odds are his opponents have a lot of equity. Going all-in pre-flop is still pretty reasonable, of course. But once he keeps that 20k back, there's never a point where it makes sense to suddenly chuck it in, so I was surprised he did it. Even if he got 7-2 off the next hand and was staring down aces, he'd still have a 12% chance to win; are 12% of Jonathan's bets here bluffs with Zaki in the hand? Doesn't seem like it.
Yeah, I know that winning this hand would leave him with a ton more chips than than winning the next, but if he can get through that small blind, he has three more hands outside the blinds to work with. In a tournament survival setting, that can be meaningful.
Against a player who "gets in there and battles" as a certain person likes to say, folding was not an option, even if calculations showed zero combinations as making any sense. I snap call that all day long, getting 23:1 even after missing. There is no way I would have raised to 120K with 20K behind, without a predetermined decision to call off no matter what preflop, and shove no matter what on the flop. So I never have chips on the turn or river to worry about after missing all 5 board cards, my money goes in when I still might suck out.
For Jonathan preflop, I'd start out thinking shove or fold, but then it would evolve into several other trains of thought, from there. I'm old old old, so I'd probably place a higher value on laddering, even if you told me it wasn't GTO. Tangling with the big stack when someone is 0.4 BB from going busto and guaranteeing me 4th place money, is not my style.
Whether to shove, flat, or minraise/fold AKo pre there is a tough decision. So tough, that I might fold and pretend I'd looked down at 72o. I much prefer a minraise over a flat, both to make the short stack commit, and to lose as little as possible if the big stack shoves.
Without the big stack in the hand, it's easy. Any one of the mid stacks minraises to get the short stack all in, nobody stupidly reraises, and you all check it down with needing to say so, and just hope one of you busts him.
I really do like the amount of pain, worry, and decision making which the short stack shoving all but a fraction of a BB caused. All he could hope to do was make people squirm enough to make mistakes, and he did accomplish that. The downside was lthat it really did commit him to calling off.
I think I like Davies' call but don't like the value bet at the end (granted it worked out great for you because Zaki benefits a lot the longer it takes for Davies to bust out). There are probably a handful of bluffs in your range granted not many and I honestly don't know exactly what your calling range looks like pre-flop. Your value range also has to be pretty condensed though because giving Zaki a chance to reopen the action (particularly in the event Davies folds) is not something you really want unless you are extremely polar anyway.
If Davies folds he is all-in SB next hand and probably has about a 1/3 chance of survival (maybe even a bit higher depending on how unwilling players are to tangle with the big stack when Davies is already all-in) but even if he wins he will be all-in as soon as he in BB again so the final table dynamic doesn't change so everyone else will still be trying super hard to not bust. On the other hand 470K still leaves him the small stack but in a way that makes it significantly harder for people to let him bleed out. Given the extremeness of the situation I'm not actually sure pot odds are that different from if he were playing cash and he only needs to be good 4%-5% of the time in that scenario and if you have any bluffs in range he pretty much has to be.
Call, as the alternative is going all in at small blind the very next hand. Get it over with and find a good cash game.
He should have folded pre
I think it’s a fold pre
Same, it doesn't play well enough multiway to rip and it's never a flat like he did
Pretty trivial fold, kind of embarrassing to call in such a big spot
I could quite easily if my logic and gut both confer I have zero chance
I think I'd fold as see if some else gets knocked out next hand. Pay jump!
Why not bet 20,000 on the turn? Zaki would recognize that for what it is and probably be disinclined to raise.
Big blind is 50k so that´s the smalest bet. Big stack want´s ultrashort players in for maximal pressure.
@@martenfredin213that is only true if the guy have like 5-10 bbs, not half a bb.
@@Brazz27 No....
Davies should fold on the river leaving his 1,5bb behind because potts odds are not applicable with pay jumps and he still has a chance to outlive the next short stack
You realize he will be all in with less than half a BB the next hand. If i was him, I would have taken my chances and shoved preflop here.
Little isn't bluffing 1 in 25 times here. Furthermore you could get called behind and be beat there too. It's a fold.
To me A fold is how I see it. But he’ll do what he thinks is best.
I don't think he was considering odds. Like the commentator said, you were last to bet which often is where people try to steal the pot. You get check-check, a bluff often wins it. Sure the odds were good, but I couldn't shake the idea you were bluffing. Not to mention he was dead in the water with 20K anyway.
Easy fold, he has A high and you aren't betting with worse than that with the big stack still in the hand.
You are never good in a multiway pot with that board against two people, not on the big blind. It's a fold 100% of the time. It would he different if he had a pair or something
This has to be one of the worst poker related comments ever.
I would fold in his spot.
He made a big mistake preflop: Not going all in . And that big mistake resulted in him being in a nasty spot later
Is this a tournament or cash? If it's a tournament final table it's a snap fold once you have a raise and caller
@@momsaid It's never a fold you only have 3bb and you have an Ace
@@lucianozaffaina9853 what does an allin accomplish exactly other than avoiding making decisions? He has zero fold equity and would not allow zaki to reraise iso.
Calling here is strictly better with zero downside