MSSR 2023 | Panel Discussion: Could the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Have Been Prevented?
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- čas přidán 18. 08. 2023
- As part of the Monterey Summer Symposium 2023 in Armenia & Georgia from July 2 to July 18, 2023, the distinguished voices of Anatol Lieven, Thomas Graham, Andrey Kortunov, and Hanna Notte converged to explore the critical question of whether the Russian invasion of Ukraine could have been prevented. This panel discussion was organized by the Monterey Initiative in Russian Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
Anatol Lieven, the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, has held various esteemed positions throughout his career. Dr. Lieven has contributed as a journalist, historian, and author, among other books, of Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry.
Thomas Graham, distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Among other positions, Dr. Graham served as special assistant to the US president and senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007, during which he managed a White House-Kremlin strategic dialogue. He was director for Russian affairs on the staff from 2002 to 2004. Dr. Graham is a co-founder of the Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies program at Yale University.
Andrey Kortunov, director-general of the Russian International Affairs Council. He is a member of several expert supervisory committees and boards of trustees of Russian and international organizations.
Hanna Notte, senior research associate at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation and a senior associate (non-resident) in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
The question and answer session (Q&A) of all Monterey Summer Symposium on Russia events is exclusive to our fellows. We do not record the Q&A session.
Media support for the Monterey Summer Symposium 2023 is provided by CivilNet Civilitas Foundation (www.civilnet.am, CZcams @CivilNetTV).
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Why ignore the main actors? What did Merkel, Poroshenko, and Hollande say recently about the Minsk agreements? Russia's government should have known better.
Where are Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer?
They are in the Kremlin receiving their payment for services rendered.
@@allanvodicka8352 So it is either "you are with us" or "against us", eh?
Neither of them are area specialists in relation to the former Soviet Union
@@zolandia5262 And these are. Just as Condoleezza Rice is. Correct?
@@allanvodicka8352 My, my. Someone who drank the kool-aid.
Its odd that the term "Imperialist state" is applied to the RF but never to the UK, Nederlands or the US given their ownership, control and integration into mainland governance of countries and ethnicities far far away from the colonial mother states - namely, of Hawai, Diego Garcia, Haiti, Falklands iskands, Aruba and other islands of the Caribbean.
This is a question of ‘divide and conquer’: a purely imperial problem.
It's not odd for a foreign state's power grab to be labeled "imperialist" by opposing states, media, etc. Everyone does it. Just depends on which side of the fence you're on during the crisis. Geographically, morally, culturally etc.
Argentina is patiently waiting UK, returns The Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) over the rightful sovereign of the South Atlantic nation.
Where can we get a copy of the Minsk Accords 1&2? How can we see Andrey's institute's "ton of papers" that they produced on Ukr-Rus relations?
Andrey is talking nonsense.
The war has been going on over a year and a half. The bigger question is why hasn’t the media gone over the Minsk accords? Everyone should know what they were and the differences between the two. I remember after 9/11 everyone was pretty much informed what led to it. They even went over al qaeda’s grievances. It’s just crazy that there has been no effort to explain anything that led to this. It’s obvious why. I just naively assumed we actually had moved into an informed media age
@@checkmate79 Controlling the Media space is worth a hundred Divisions
A dimension of this conflict I do not believe was adequately addressed was the economic aspect.
Russia must have known that as soon as it seriously attacked Ukraine, it would face withering economic warfare (sanctions, SWIFT etc.) from the west.
Maybe in 2014 it did not think itself strong enough to survive such an onslought. So, as Ukraine prepared militarily from 2014-2022, so Russia prepared economically?
Does that make sense?
This is one of the best (calmest and informed) discussions I have heard on this subject. Thank you to MIRS.
Absolutely preventable!! We must not give in to bullies
We must not give in to US belligerence; mapped out in the Wolfowitz/Bush doctrine. Over 4.5 million people killed in post 9/11 war zones, and over 38 million people displaced. Two thirds of the world sanctioned. Failed states, humanitarian crises. It has to be confronted.
You mean the US?
@@ebb_ No. He means your mother. Trollboy
The bully was picking a fight by expanding it's military block toward Moscow. And yes, Western civil society kept silence.
@@mryouben Most intelligent NATO bootlicker.
The point missing in this discussion is the basic precondition that Russia feels entitled to regard any ex-sowiet states that have been independent for over 30 years by now as separatist states that all actually belong to Russia. Like adolescent children who are having puberty moodswings. Like ok we let the run free for now (last 30y) but now it’s time they realize they belong to Russia. And if they don’t want that they have unfortunately be lead back home by force.
There was unfortunately no discussion about the questionable legitimacy Russia assumes to have. No discussion whether it is legitimate to refuse to accept the reality of historic changes.
Also there was no discussion that differentiates Russia annexing territory into the RF to own and rule over it compared to NATO having members of souvereign states who unite only militarily in a mainly defensive sense (please no trigger reactions I know some see this point debatable - but does NATO grab land? No). There was no discussion about the exaggerations of the RF and comparing apples with pears mostly. And more.
However I appreciate the mostly rational non-emotionalized discussion without at least any absurd hysterical exaggerations like we see in the propaganda strategies (to a different extent on both sides). Thank you for the effort to present this in a matter one could calmly listen to it and actually consider everyones points without getting the feeling they compare notes after unknowingly having watched 2 entirely different movies. TY
I find "absurd exaggerations" in your assertions about RF.'s thinking on the 1991 seperated former Soviet Republics as being still "belonging" to Russia. If that were the case, Kazakistan would have been.the first target given the USSR's huge investments in it. US instigation of the Chechen revolt is well documented but its meddling in other Muslim majority C. Asian states isn't. The elephant in the room seems,to have been President Putin's personal attitude to.future relations with those states. As for Ukraine, I thought the decision to unilaterally retake Crimea in 2014 was a direct response to the Sullivan-Nuland involvement in the Maidan coup and the criticality of Russian control over Crimea,with its Naval base of Sevastopol in it.
@@joyaroy8532 kazakstan is huge, maybe that is a good reason, it has not been in opposition to anything significant to the will of the RF, and it is bordering China after all. Take a map and check the locations of all the ex-sowiet countries RF grabbed a slice or conquered completely. You will see what I mean immediately. RF has unfortunately a tendency to attack it’s neighbors. The overall focus seems to be on the black sea countries.
The elephant in the room is how come it should be an acceptable behavior to go to war with neighboring countries just bc they decide things differently than the RF wants them to. How come RF feels entitled to react with war to waning influence and control over neighbors. How come it cannot accept that not all neighbors want to always do what RF wants? Why not diplomatic/political measures like most of the world handles disagreements? Why is RF constantly reacting with war especially when it comes to it’s neighbors? If you think this through you will see this feeling of entitlement. Why bc these neighbors are actually still considered belonging to the RF. A bit like colonies.
Regarding the status of Ukraine after the dissolution of the USSR please check the Budapest Memorandum. Please also check out the lecture on this channel about post-colonialism. Many greetings to you and thank you for your comment.
@@joyaroy8532I observe that if Putin feels he has sufficient influence over a neighbouring country - ie. It does what he wants - then he is content to let it rule itself. Example, Belarus. The difference in Ukraine is that it has been culturally moving away from Russia for over a decade. 2014 was not a coup, but a popular uprising against a president who had his military fire on unarmed students who were peacefully protesting. Yanukovich spurned the wishes of the people to move closer to Europe. Hence he was forced out by popular uprising.
@@heathereley9749 Yes, exactly. It amazes me how so many people are ignorant to this perspective. Well said.
The Maidan revolution was not a coup even if Kremlin apologists with an FSB mindset like to say so. Btw. the timeline shows that the date for the invasion of Crimea was set before the Maidan revolution ended. And beyond that, Ukrainian internal politics do not give the RF the right to invade its neighbour and annexe part of its territory. Btw. Russian meddling in Chechnya, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics is well documented. And this meddling did not consist in having phone calls but in sending the military in.@@joyaroy8532
Wow, Lieven's pro-Russian biases are striking.
Lieven is a very well-informed specialist on the subject. He gets a lot of abuse from both extremes which shows he must be doing something right.
@@grigorymatyunin1592he is not a well known specialist
not really if you read Chechnya: Tombstone of Russian Power, he highlights structural issues with the Russian army it displayed from 2022 to present.
In that book Lieven also brings up the how Russian ethnic nationalism failed as a mobilizing force after the Soviet collapse, in contrast to the Serbs in the former Yugoslavia
Can someone please explain Lieven's assertion that a reintergrated Donbas in a Federal Ukrainian State would give Russia the power to block any Ukraine policy? I've heard it stated, but by what mechanism would it be made possible? No such power is to be found in the Minsk Agreement or the Ukraine constitution.
No Federal Sate anywhere in the world has the power to block any Federal policy, unless of course they have an electoral majority, which rebel ethnic Russian Ukrainians will never have. Maybe someone can illuminate this black hole in our western narrative.
Hi from Russia. Pro-Western/pro-Russian division in Ukraine is probably 60/40. Check any electoral map from the past, Eastern Ukraine always overwelmingly pro-Russian. And Eastern Ukraine also an economic powerhouse, so in terms of actual economic power division is 70/30 in Russia's favour. Both Maidans (2004 and 2013) was staged by pro-Western part of the society exactly because in normal circumstances a drift towards Russia is inevitable for purely economical reasons.
So what pro-Western forces do is escalate the tensions and shut down pro-Russian part of society by force.
So, autonomy for Donbass creates an security island pro-Western part of society cannot reach or supress
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sorry for brkn English
@@paulzx5034 I understand that, but how would an autonomous Donbas, where everyone agrees ethnic Russian rebels are a minority of the ethnic Russian minority, have the power to veto Ukraine national policy, hold Ukraine hostage and be Putin's Trojan Horse, as the first speaker claims?
Easy to say to scare people, but utter BS under any scutiny.
I agree with what I think you're saying though. That Ukraine wanted Donbas back, but as Zelensky hinself explained not with "anyone who feels Russian" or "has warm feeling for Russia" in it.
Considering the alternative, a monumental blunder by monumental fools.
What a load of garbage.
The pro-Russia population in Donbass would have remained the same whether Donbass became a federated state or not. In fact, in terms of state votes, a federated Donbass would be permanently in the minority. So, a federated Donbass would see no increased danger to Ukraine.
Actually, a federated Donbass would lessen the difficulty of rhe regime in Kyiv in controlling the people who were persecuting the Russian speakers.
The Minsk agreements, if implemented, would have been good for Ukraine. But the west had a different motive -- to use Ukraine as proxy to destabilize, fragment, and dismember Russia.
Because DNR would have gotten veto powers. And because Russian citizens were heading the DNR.
Interesting. All of Anatol Lieven's points on the build up to the war and Putin's credibility on negotiations were completely destroyed by the next two speakers. Just as I had expected.
Confirmation bias.
Very soon, we will be witnessing another panel for the Chinese Taiwan war, obviously, with the very common denominators keeping business as usual.
No you wont. That war will be the last. Your light will go out muppet. It will be a nuclear war. You wont be watching a video.
States in the US federation have much greater autonomy than was being asked for in the Donbas, the difference being that language, cultural affiliations and religion are more homogenous in the US whereas in the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine they were already divided as had been the Poles and Hungarians in the West, from the mainstream right wing elements that dominated Kyiv after 2014.
China and Taiwan both agree they are the same people. That is a civil war that has been paused for decades. If China or Taiwan decides to restart it then the US doesn’t have any business getting involved in another countries civil war
I think even sooner they will talk about negotiating territorial concessions Ukraine should make so that they could be taken as a template for the solution to the Chinese Taiwan war.
"I think we need to recognise that the Kremlin was operating under some time pressure at that point because they had hundreds of thousands of troops in the field." This is a fraught way of describing the fact that Russia built up an invasion force at the borders of Ukraine and was not interested in diplomacy. Such statements blur the Kremlin's responsibility for the military buildup and for the invasion of Ukraine.
Will You Have A Power To Lead NATO , As You Were , And World Power Senction You Did To Country Yiu Need ?
The biggest dinosaurs had the tiniest brains.
If they only knew how much more miserable I am than you
They (plural); you (singular) - bad syntax.
Than you - "you talkin' to me?"
Do you really believe what you're talking about? Or do you want to lead away from the truth, impose a false opinion?
Brilliant
Interesting how seriously Lieven and Notte take Russia's grievances with the Minsk Accords, forgetting that Russia didn't fulfil them and completely forgetting that DNR and LNR came about through Russian military intervention in Ukraine.
nonsense
Sure it could. If NATO did not expand to East, all would be fine.
Sure, Russia would just occupy Baltic countries also. Why should Russia`s concerns be important than Baltic countries` or Ukraine`. Especially since Russia is a such an accute threat to them.
@@stan_hiz Russia did not occupy no one. For 30 years Russia was observing how the promises of nato non-spreading to east were falling one by one. Those promises were broken. Russia acted accordingly. No more waiting. Action. And that is perfect.
Why Russian interests` are more important than those of Ukraine? How about Georgia and Chechnia and Moldova and Syria? Why should Baltic countries abandon their rights for security because of some Russian delusional concerns? Do you actually know that Russia claims that it was Ukraine which wanted to attack first and they had to make a preventive strike? Can you imagine Ukraine attacking Russia if they can barely defend themselves with western weapons which could not be fired into Russian territory? What promises to Russia? Are you delusional? There are no oral promises in politics. If Russia wanted promises than they needed to sign a deal. How about Ukrainian nuclear arsenal given up in exhange for territorial integrity and numerous other actually signed treaties where Russia recognaized Ukraine`s soveringty? How about killed Ukrainian civilans and demolished cities? Why Russia does not react to Finlands` accession to NATO? Do you know that Russia`s main justification for this war is a claim that Russian speaking people need to be protected and yet this war devastated Donabss and killed thousands of Russian speaking Ukrainians?@@TheGarrymoore
How do you plan to force the baltics, poland, hungary, czechia, slovakia, romania and bulgaria into compliance? They are 90+ million people with their own opinions. They weren't forced into NATO, they asked to join.
@@xj8713 nato promised and nato should have stand to its promises. That is why this happens. nato will fight against russia to the last lithuanian, ukrainian, romanian...not english or american....there is enough meat for the grinder...If nato did not expand to East, all would be fine.
This is a very honest and balanced conversation. While rightfully criticising Russian actions, the contributors refrain from banal sloganeering. I really appreciate Hanna Notte's intervention on pre-war diplomacy. It is worth pointing out that comparable treaties (e.g. Helsinki Final Act, INF Treaty etc.) took years of active diplomacy. Russia had made unrealistic demands and invaded Ukraine three months later. The timescale for a halfway compromise simply wasn't on the table.
There was no engagement with the Russians or a willingness to entertain their grievances they were simply perceived to be too weak and inconsequential to bother with. The absolute best and surest way to provoke a violent reaction from them which I have no doubt was half hoped for if not entirely expected. The results of which may be more damaging to America's place in the World than they might have imagined Wars are unpredictable things
What a stupid question! You all know it could have been avoided.
Hanna Notte = a neo in Europe?
Some of the reasons Russia didn't invade in 2014/2015 - 1) Russian rearmament had not progressed enough at this point; 2) The US and the West generally were considered to be much more divided in 2022. Trump/Brexit etc
1. to overcome the dilapidated and corruption-stricken 2014 ukrainian military and take kyiv? yes it had. this isn’t a serious argument.
2. trump was out of power in 2022 and biden was recognized on all sides as a hawk on the ukraine question and a restoration of sound, non-isolationist american leadership. by this point the US had been training about 10,000 ukrainian soldiers per year for 7 years; trump had previously provided them with javelins and other modern defensive arms. i’m sure the russians underestimated how robustly the west would come to ukraine’s aid with weapons and financial support after the february 2022 invasion, but it is not the case that 2022 presented a moment of unique western weakness which diverged from more daunting conditions present in 2015-2016 - in fact the opposite is true.
Why would Ukraine want to implement the Minsk agreement? It was forced on them at gunpoint by a foreign power which had just annexed some of their territory
At this point unconditional surrender is the only practical solution for Ukraine . Hitler's Germany also refused to admit defeat until Hitler killed himself, then Keitel signed unconditional surrender.
Hi from Russia. No, I dont think so. The broad cause of war is US policy of ignoring our concerns as if we doesnt exist on the map. Whats happen now is a replica of 1939 with Ukraine instead of Poland. We simply increase our strategic depth. So either we create continious NATO - Russia border and pray it can help to avoid the WW3. Or USA, China and Russia sign a new agreeements to define security architecture. Because the one we had is finished.
Ukraine as an US puppet will be destroyed. Ukraine as a neutral state may survive. Sadly, for this to happen we need to talk with USofA. And to talk with us - USofA must step down from the throne.
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sorry for brkn English
At this point Putin in his bunker trying to convince himself that he is not responsible for hundreds of thousands deaths of Ukrainians.
You meant Russia surrendering didn't you, not Ukraine. Yesterday, Sweden's Grippen aircraft were designated for Ukraine along with the F-16s from earlier this week. As well, with the outrage of the Russian terrorist missile attack today at Chernihiv which killed seven and wounded 117 people leaving a church service, Western patience with Putin's killer regime will soon be coming to an end. Russia will reap the violence that it has sown!!!
@@stan_hizGet real dude. Wake up!
@@ebb_ you are still taking Kyiv in three days? Good luck!
Nice to have the CIA position put by the German woman and the Iraq war cheer leader.
It's absolutely disgraceful that you have this talks without even inviting any Ukrainians while having Russians and without even pausing to admit just how much Ukraine is suffering at hands of Russia without any reason whatsoever. It's a real shame what academia has turned into.
"Wihout any reason whatsoever"? Your ignorance and clear bias is showing.
Name one reason why a dictator who has been holding power for 23 years, killed and imprisoned oppositon leaders and stole trillions of rubles has rights to invade a democratic country, which has done nothing to Russia, and kill thousands of its citizens @@oswarz
Please tell me you are trolling.
Agreed
They're merely answering a very important question, was this war avoidable? I much rather hear academics discuss it than yahoo's in their under wear on the internet.
The arguments are using only formal stated positions of various countries. Not the evidence of real actions of the past and the attitude that they reveal.
How after the goodwill good faith self-destruction of Soviet Union by Gorbachev and the puppetization of Russia by Yeltsin which permitted the "clearing up operations" (Army terminology) by Western fronts "NGOs" in Russia after the "victory" of the Cold War.. why Russia was treated so differently from Eastern Europe. EEU was supported and helped while Russia was treated like an orphan and allowed to disintegrate. Reveals basic attitude.
Secondly the violation of promise given to Russia of No NATO Expansion. Despite the warnings of George Kennan and William Burns & others, Russian Red Lines were crossed arrogantly several times. And the membership action plan for Ukraine in 2008 was the Brightest Of Red Lines. Reveals Consistent Basic Attitude of West. Arrogant Deceptions to Corner Russia under a Faked Innocent Face.
2004 and 2014 Maidan coups. Especially the Chaos set up in 2014 to snatch Ukraine out of the Russian orbit.. where the Russian section wielded substantial power. That 30% of the population was disempowered after the coup of 2014.. which was an exact replica of the 2002 coup by the USA in Venezuela. The same street anarchy using an agitated encouraged supported minority.. the same use of snipers to inflame the situation irreversibly by generating anger and bitterness.. using the chaos to spread stories to spread further chaos and unseat a democratically elected govt by whipping up sharp localized unrest around the seat of power. In both Venezuela the role of the US administration got exposed. In Ukraine with the Nuland viral video which was allocating Cabinet portfolios of a new govt even before before the coup had taken place.. to edge out the EU candidate Viktor Klitschko and appoint US loyalists. "Fuck EU".. an approach which is also used to arm-twist to further erode EU power and make it fall into line and more dependent on & loyalty to US... like the Nordstream destruction etc.. A Permanently Manageable EU which doesn't create its own Defense Forces..
Again this exposes the Irreconcilably Dishonest and Implacable Approach of the US to Russia.
Finally on the Minsk accord the revelations from Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko which show that the Minsk accords were not intended seriously.. just a fake front for show.
All these show the Core Attitude of the US and West was not to reconcile with Russia in any spirit of cooperation but to destroy Russia as a power by any and all means.. and to use a puppet Ukraine as a Battering Ram to bring it down totally.
I think you forget that Russia was stuffed with money by the West. The West made sure the RF got all the nuclear arsenal of the former Soviet Republics. They even handed the Soviet chair in the UN security council to the RF (though it had no right to it). The 'promise of no Nato expansion' is a Russian myth. There was no such promise. It was a suggestion by a German politician during the negotiations for the unification of Germany and it concerned the question of Eastern Germany only.
Russia has no right to a sphere of influence, as nobody else has who signed the Helsinki Accords. Russia should recognise that we do not live in the era of Jalta anymore and stop inventing red lines outside its jurisdiction.
Disagree NATO is also time hanging in the feeld
There are certain points that have not been considered when thinking "the was was not inevitable"
United States today is thinking of controlling all in order to remain sol dominant world power,
But looking from different angle, Russia by starting the war accomplished that could not be accomplished without Ukraine war.
De-dollarization which by itself is grate achievement.
This is kremlin propaganda
😂
It’s obvious you prefer lies to truth! It’s baffling to understand that such people like you still exist
You think putin is someone you can settle with it was never about security but dominance, for you ukraine is just a pawn, no ukranian view in the panel is telling
You’re simply delusional
Putin's a pragmatic realist. Unfortunately the Ukrainian political class and US neoconservatives are belligerent idealogues.
Ukraine is a pawn indeed, in the hands of neocons.
THE UN CHARTER CONTAINS AN ARTICLE MAKING RUSSIA'S SPECIAL OPERATION IN UKRAINE LEGAL. The UN Charter, in Articles 106 and 107, gives the right to the winners of the Second World War - the USSR, the USA, Great Britain and China - to apply all measures against the countries that fought against them to prevent actions aimed at revising the results of the Second World War. In particular, it is possible to use military force against these countries. To do this, it is enough to notify the other three winning countries, but not to get their consent.
Forceful coercion of countries that want to revise the Yalta-Potsdam system in Europe can also be carried out by Russia, which is the legal successor of the USSR.
Russia can stop attempts to revive Nazism in Germany, Hungary, Romania, Austria, Bulgaria, Finland, Croatia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic.
Articles 106 and 107 of the UN Charter also apply to all those countries that refuse to inherit from the USSR - Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. Their attitude that there was a Soviet occupation and the treaties of Friendship and cooperation concluded by them with the Third Reich move these countries into the ranks of the Hitlerite coalition. The same position is taken by modern Ukraine, which accepts as its predecessor the military-political formations of the OUN-UPA, created by Ukrainian fascists. Proves that all these post-Soviet republics belong to the Hitlerite coalition. Hence the possibility of revising the territorial acquisitions of countries that position themselves as supporters of the Hitlerite coalition.
In Russia history really is a matter of imagination not of facts.
@@ah5555 The rapid degradation of Western civilization is shocking))) Can you show Russia on a geographical map, gopher?😂👈
@@ah5555 A BUNCH OF LOSERS
Ukraine should have stayed neutral. Zelensky should not have been bullied by the USA
Zelensky is made out of US money, without that he would still be an obscure comedian. He knows who his master is, and he fears the nationalists.
Russia should not have sent Russian citizens to the Donbas to terrorise Ukrainians.
No. The neos (e.g. Nuland) would have got us there one way or another. Just remember Iraq.
russia already is a third rate power and going down fast
So why is your country afraid of it like it's death itself?
@@dimitrioskantakouzinos8590didn't listen to the speakers did you. Russia is not respected or feared. Russia + China does not significantly increase the China threat. Russia is the bottom in that pairing.
@@SalaciousBCrumb-md3lk I did, and you're very wrong. China was the least powerful of the great powers in the 1970s, yet the US did its best to ally with China against Russia. Deny it all you want, it's great that the US is destroying itself today.
@@SalaciousBCrumb-md3lk 😂 said a NATO bot