Larry Summers Is Worried About Inflation
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- čas přidán 2. 07. 2024
- Mar.19 -- Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers, a Wall Street Week contributor, thinks that we are seeing the least responsible macroeconomic policy in forty years. He disagrees with Paul Krugman's thoughts on how long it takes inflation expectations to become unanchored. He joins David Westin on "Bloomberg Wall Street Week."
You know things are bad when Larry Summers starts to make sense...
@Tbone thats what im saying. But he seems to be getting it right this time
@Tbone you think there wont be inflation? How do you explain house prices, equities prices and commodities prices. All up double digits in 1 year since monetary policy went wild.
As for the credible economists,we could site many but quite straightforwardly 7 fed governors went against Powell and wanted to raise rates due to inflation concerns.
I think lots still need to be played out, but inflation is clearly not our of the cards here...
Economist dont understand the economy. 2008-2010 dollars Euros and Yen about $20 trillion dollars worth was printed. Did it take a barrel of money to buy bread in 2010? No. The idea that $1400 when there are places that have mile long food lines is going "over heat" the economy is delusional. Japans debt ro gdp is at least %300 inflation is %1...
It is not about the 1400 checks for people in need that are about 25% of that bill.
It is about stuffing in crap like 350 millions to study how animals behave under covid and others, which inflated the m2 by 30% in just 1 year.
This isn’t Japan though
Japan is a society focused on saving (aka having no debt=no growth in money supply). The government can rack up debt to those levels without inflation because of a lack of consumer spending. The US consumer on the other hand has minimal savings, a consumerism mindset, and overinflated assets that they use to pull out cash and spend. The credit production is substantially different in each country and that is why the US will run into inflation trouble while Japan won’t at equal levels of gov debt
Where did you get those numbers from no where near that amount was printed in that period.
Yeah japan's debt isnt that high. Ofc a massive stimulus is gonna heat up economy. What matters is what govt + fed is gonna do after recovery. Im personally hoping that biden is responsible enough to raise taxes and cut spending enough to balance the books. If not then eventually the fed will step in with crazy high interest rates. The us in the 70s-80s had interest rates of 20+%. It def sucked but we made it through!
Until recently Mr. Summers had nothing but praise for Powell and Yellen. What an expert!
@Tbone He's a great conman.
@Tbone and he was a friend of Jeffrey Epstein....So much for UST/SEC scrutiny
Because they were being responsible. It's the stimulus bill he is particularly critical of, and also that interest rates will have to increase, which Powell and Yellen have now are agreeing on.
RESPONSIBLE Economic Policy = 1.9 Trillion Tax Brakes to Wealthy & Corporations = INSANITY
Now all we need is a supply shock and then the party starts.
Indeed. Food and energy, under a microscope.
Or bancruptcy of a financial institution. Emerging market is a good candidate. With this much pressure of the US passing inflation to emerging market, some would definitely break. They don't have much cushion to handle it.
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Some lumber based building supplies have doubled or tripled in price in the last year.
@@Jocky8807 100 bucks says its DeutscheBank that causes the end of the financial system. Lol
@@GregTGolden I was thinking emerging market.
With the pressure from the US$ and yield, they have to increase interest rates. Or facing inflation with printing money.
Even IMF don't have the spare funds to assist anymore and asking for EU and the US for helps.
Turkey and Argentina are 2 examples.
The US probably can stand the higher yield, the emerging market won't. And, it will come back to the US shore, when (not if) those countries collapses.....
I cannot believe my ears. A Democrat who is going against the grain for the greater good. Wow. We must study this
Not merely wrong. Profoundly wrong.
Listening to this guys 1/3rd predictions makes me lauuuuuugh
He is useless
Even when he is wrong, Summers will say "I told you so"
is he right?
This aged like fine milk
Having expectations anchored is key to it all! “ Jerome Print it up Powell “
Low or negative interest rates are radically irresponsible. Not letting banks fail is also radically irresponsible, when the chairmen of said banks are walking off as billionaires.
No. The American Rescue plan that gives an unlimited amount of money to many including to rich people to buy new Teslas and to people who buy used cars. How asinine!! Think about it. We are giving people money to buy cars in an inflationary environment.
1/3 chance!!! AHHHH, SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE???? Jim Carrey Dumb and Dumber voice :D :D :D
This dude talks so slow watch it 2x.
His brain runs on potato juice
😂
Why does Bloomberg ask the opinion of a FRIEND of JEFFREY EPSTEIN on sovereign debt issues? Perhaps the question should be how HARVARD gave Epstein an office to work at and how EPSTEIN made money without the UST, the SEC and the IRS scrutinizing his illegal activities? Good topic for Blooomberg
Labor shortages are out of control bc you’re paid to sit on your ass.
Inflation is out of control. Highest month over month increase since 1981.
What ignorance. Fed and European Central Bank see true interest rates as negative. Oil was minus $40 last year and demand hasn't increased.
Treasury notes: 1 year @ .2%; 10.year @ 1.5%; 30 year 2.2% and Fed wants 2-3%
Politicians in a democracy will not be responsible when most voters are irresponsible.
The Greatest Generations are gone forever.
Am I the only one who thinks that the Fed is right this time and is just being incredibly active, in the face of all of these risks? You can always spreadsheet the hell out of all of these situations, but what else were they supposed to do, in this global macroeconomic disaster? I think that the stagnation in job growth and slow re-expansion will run in tandem with all of the Feds ideas and that inflation will grow proportionately and literally nothing but eventual growth will happen and we will enter another huge bull market, for the next several years :D
I think our civilisation has survived plenty of irresponsible governments in the past. On the whole, I’m not that concerned.
I’m listening to Larry
Paul Krugman was trying to rationalize an extreme amount of spending! Politics over data for people like Krugman.
Federal employees lie about inflation.
I think they are arguing about different inflation. Monetary VS Price inflation. Risking the beginning of the end for the USD.
Beginning of the end was 2008. We're at the middle of the end. Next crisis will probably be the end of the end.
When Larry summers is complaining that when you know we are on the right track.
Your comment has aged well.
@@DavidGao-tn7yp Larry summer’s explanation of why we would get inflation was still wrong. So my comment aged fine but thanks for the 9 month old gotcha.
This is why liberals lose elections.
@@DavidGao-tn7yp they will justify another 50 years of austerity from the current inflation we are seeing. Most of the current price spikes are being caused by corporations with monopoly pricing power raising prices because they can. If you watch the financial channels and listen to there corporate calls they are saying it out load even.
@@Eastbayrob You sound like the people who run Venezuela.
look where we are now..if only people had listened to him.
Well, he was right.
What’s the alternative, millions in the street, stock market crash, revolution, depression, war!, all paths it seems leds to the snare.
What shocked me was when everyone got their stimulus check the luxury sector went through roof.
There’s no shortage of old white men pontificating
If you actually look at the detailed CPI reports from 1966-1969 inflation accelerated due to higher food prices which kick started the initial price-wage spiral in part thanks to centralised wage setting. Ask yourself why core and headine CPI use to match one for one and now vary substantially. With that in mind it's beyond me how anyone can argue run away inflation with UE still with a 6 handle and the participation rate a full 2% lower than pre-covid levels.
Exactly. Also, with global supply chains im not even sure national unemployment numbers are relevant any more...you could have 100% employment in the US, but if 70% of your goods are produced overseas...why would prices go up?
For example, say you want to buy a Ford and they are at 100% plant capacity, so youd have to wait 9 months for a car. You go to Honda and they say they can ship you one in tomorrow.....now you have a substition readily available. Same goes for dishwashers, washing machines, cell phones. What products are limited on a production these days? Not much that I can think of.
I mean, there is a massive shortage of computer chips for cars these days due to supply chains and producers changing production to different chips....but yet car prices havent spiraled out of control. I dont see the argument for rampant inflation (aside from govt minimum wage hikes and other regulations, but even those are only going to affect certain segments).
Asset prices will keep going up.....consumer prices will slowly rise over time.
4:43 thats interesting
You know what happened during that time ... Social unrest(Civil rights Movement). It’s a given during crisis.
“Political convenience” he said it!!
The GOV is giving me my money back!
Well said! Politically motivated economic views
John Maynard Keynes gave video thumbs down
The opposite, Keynes is The Godfather of reckless money printing
@@LetterSignedBy51SpiesWasA-Coup Seems the video was against reckless money printing?
@@LetterSignedBy51SpiesWasA-Coup Keynes said governments should run surpluses when the economy is going well and run deficits when there is in a recession. The oroblem is politicians only heard "run deficits"
GET WOKE-ISM out of the Fed!!! Please!! When the questions come up I just turn off the stream and become disinterested!!! The questions are moronic and unrelated to fiscal policy because the fiscal policy of the Fed affects ALL people. Oh no, I said the ALL word :D
Interesting to watch Larry move from pro stimulation to a more hawkish view. Where are the republicans with spending Jesus?
Not a chance.
Such a disappointing comment from an economist. Has he forgotten about the basics? Economics is the allocation of resources, Growth and distribution of Income. Clearly he is only looking out for stick market speculators not unemployment or anything that matters. Maybe he would HV the same comments in a world war fearing inflation not winning the war or lives lost fighting it.
Hi
Least? As if the the previous administration had a better policy.
I think there’s a lot of uncertainty and, I’m far from an expert but I am most scared that the rising economy of China could shit the world away from relying on on the USD to back up there currency. I feel like we have had an advantage as an economy since WW2 and that we have been abusing this advantage recently, like in the past 50 years. I’m scared that as time moves on, the dollars intrinsic trust stretched ever thinner, and an eventual breaking point, could cause maker fluctuations and a large maby brief panic, I just keep going back to the words said by a leader of the fed reflecting on the 2008 recession, something along the lines of “we where about 3 days away from atm’s not working for people”, I think it was from a 60 min or cvs article, but I think this guy is talking out of his ass with little backing it up, give me a break 1/3, 1/3, 1/3, the balls to make that statement tells me he’s ridiculous and unfounded
The 10 year yield just reached 1.75%, the same yield it was back in Feb 2020 just before the pandemic. Every idiot investor thinks like the sky is falling with 1.75% yield
No, you are missing the point. It's not merely the percentage, it's the delta--the speed of the change. Rates have SHOT up. And it's at a time when the Fed has been signalling over and over that they will not be raising rates for YEARS. Do not be lulled into a false sense of security. What is going on in the Treasury market right now is H-U-G-E. It's an earthquake, a tsunami, and most people are blissfully ignorant. There is literally nothing more important in economics or even politics right now than what happens to the rate on the 10-year Treasury over the next week or so.
@@GenXstacker Well said. Most people don’t understand. Nuance and details are of utmost importance but most can’t get past the headlines and miss the bigger picture entirely. It shouldn’t be a surprise though because if the mass public was actually well-informed, we wouldn’t be in this mess. It’s not a bipartisan problem or even a Fed problem, even though I hate the Fed, it’s a societal problem. This is a decades-long degradation of the nation.
Larry summers the king of deregulation.
We have no choice but to inflate our way out of this debt. From my point of view, this has been planned for a long time. I just wish I knew what to invest in to protect against it accept owning a home.
There's a chart of assets that perform well in a high inflation environment (not valid for hyperinflation ofc). Real estate is high but any stocks are ok. Surprisingly palladium does way better than stocks and gold.
Bitcoin, property, gold. Everything else is garbage.
We do have a choice, to suck it out the next few years, how is printing trillions of dollars going to make it better?
I betcha the Fed bumps interest to .25-.50 by the end of the year.
"I betcha the Fed bumps interest to .25-.50 by the end of the year."
You lose.
Who is here after watching Warren & Charlie in Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2021?
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Wow, even Larry Summers is tired of this spending BS.