"No improvements by the RBA" Mark Bouris & Diana Mousina
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- čas přidán 21. 04. 2024
- Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist at AMP, joins Mark Bouris to discuss the latest property market insights and economic indicators.
Key Topics covered in this episode:
- March unemployment rate rises to 3.8% while employment falls by 7,000 jobs
- Importance of focusing on unemployment rate as key labor market indicator
- Definition and current status of underemployment in Australia
- RBA now looks beyond just unemployment rate to assess full employment
Employment Growth Discussion
- Large job gains in sectors like healthcare, education, professional services
- Impact of growth in government jobs on economy's productivity levels
- Policies to boost productivity: personal income tax cuts, higher GST, business investment incentives, immigration reforms
Interest Rates Outlook
- Prediction that RBA will start cutting rates in August/September
- Expectation for two rate cuts by end of year
You know as well as I do that the unemployment figure is the biggest load of crap, as you’ve only got to work a couple of hours a week to be classed as unemployed. A huge number are underemployed and underpaid.
@@DanTuber I was watching a vid by @Leithvo yesterday and it is heading much higher - i think in NZ it is heading to 250 applications per job if I remember correctly.
@@DanTuber
I work for a Building company, most of our applicants are Indians from Overseas
Such a good interview - no fluff and truly talking about the real issues. Thanks Mark & Diana.
So unemployment is rising but masked by a bloated government job market. Concerning.
Yes very concerning. An urgent decrease in the public service is essential.
@@buildmotosykletist1987
Tell that to the Voting Sheep
Everyone in this Country wants something for Nothing & the growing Public Service is a reflection of that
The government needs to focus on reducing energy prices; this would provide significant relief to those who are currently struggling. While I respectfully disagree with Ms. Mousina regarding the Labor Government's policies, being pressed into the Big Green Deal is having the opposite effect. Urgent steps are needed, including drilling for gas and establishing a clear plan for nuclear energy, among other forward-thinking initiatives"
The trouble is, if the RBA cuts this year, the housing Ponzi keep keep marching on.
It's going to march on because of the reduction in home building and increase in immigration.
@BB-xx3dvYeah the ASX rate tracker moved significantly!
Rate cuts now looking 50/50 at best.
Hi I own a small business.
If I increase the price number of costumers will drop or they will buy less of my services.
So to keep up with inflation and rising cost of everything I need to work more and to keep low price.
Thats why everyone works more.
People have less money to spend.
People will skip car insurance, tires,lawn moving,hairdresser, buy cheaper grosseries etc.
That funny, I own a small business and I put my prices up well over inflation. Business is thriving, so is profitability.
@JimmyNeedmore : I simply do not believe that. You'd be in the top 1%.
@JimmyNeedmore best regards to you and your business.
We all are different Different industries perform differently
Hospitality can be strugling and construction striving.
We all will have one day.
And also some times you need to feel for the client that been with you long enough and its not only about the money.
Not always about the money.
But I guess it will be funny how come bissiness will be not about the money.
@@buildmotosykletist1987 Not really. Get into the "services " sector. Selling "products " has had its day.
@@s.p.3575 Yes it is always about the money. There is part of your problem. Attitude adjustment needed.
I agree re hospitality. Too many costs. I got out of hospitality 20 years ago.
Here is a question for you- why persevere in hospitality? Why not get out and spend the remainder of your working years in the booming services sector? Why stay and hope?
No way is there going to be two rate cuts in 2024. More likely in 2025. And even then that will stimulate the property market resulting in higher prices…
I doubt it will be any rate cuts,,may be before election.
Just to get woted.
1 in 3 jobs created last year were ndis. 10 billion a year by 2030 (more than double medicare annual budget)
Mark, you are the Wizard of Oz.
Guess I’ll be following the Yellow Brick Road regularly now.
Australians are feeling depressed because we can't even afford shelter.
I feel fine.
I own 3 Houses, I'm feeling fine
@@andrewkerr5296 which politician are you quoting?
@@pauldiezel4584
I think all Politicians are scum, why would I be quoting any of them?
Thanks for the vid! Always interesting to hear from high profile guests.
Congratulations, Just another true and honest interview, you Guest Diana, a wonderful person Thanksyou both for you time.Diana,and Mark,🤗🌷🦉
Property prices, rents, food, fuel and everything else is going up in double digit inflation and that is at the long term average interest rates are at.
If rates fall unfortunately it's going to make inflation sky-rocket again!
Really love this content
The unemployment rate won’t increase significantly while the NDIS continues to grow exponentially. One
3rd of all new jobs added last year was directly linked to the NDIS. If the unemployment rate stays low the cash rate won’t drop.
Rates need to increase until house prices drop. Simple. Housing is biggest asset/debt. It needs to decrease. Common f@&king sense. Coming from someone with two homes.
House prices are only up because of immigration policies. Take away the 800k+ new aussies and our housing market is in the toilet. Govt we’re lobbied by the banks to increase immigration. Raising or lowering rates will have no effect.
Amen to this.
unlikely due to inflation
I agree house prices need to drop but the govt have opened the flood gates to mask any economic downturn, it's 500K plus now, Net. What do you think that does to demand (purchase, rental etc) when all these builders are going under. So the main players are working against each other. Raising rates is only part of the solution. Lift the GST to impact those that aren't affected by rates if you really want to slow consumption. Also finally implement something at least to discourages property investment especially for those with multiple assets. It's killing the younger generation and IMO has already changed the Australia for the worse.
@@dr3638 Amen to this!
The abs samples the same group over 8 months for employment stats. They are supposed to represent the population. 1. How many new people have come into Australia over 8 months? 2. Many immigrants avoid surveys and many are here "studying" but are totally dependent on wages earned here even though they are supposed to have the money already. 3. Unemployment rate doesn't matter if you can't afford the basics of survival i.e. shelter. That makes a full time min wage job equivalent to a part time, a part time equivalent to casual, a casual equivalent to basically being unemployed.
Thanks for the insight. 🎉
People forget that we have being drinking the liquidity Kool-aid since 2012. Reality is that if you take out the last 12 years of downtrending rates our current interest rate is in the historical average range. Sooner or later the piper needs to be paid. Politicians need to be less political and markets need to be markets.
Great talking points.
Would like to see real live data of the building industry. Housing starts, loan approvals, existing housing work in the pipeline etc. I work in the building supply sector I personally can see now, the lack of work coming through frame and Truss plants and concreters in the housing sector now worried to what the next few months the holds for them.
Timber prices have continued to dropped and in turn margins/ profits, hours of work has reduced due to supply and demand, some Timber mills are reducing production.
More people coming into the country and not enough jobs to go around, not to mention enough houses/ rentals.
Gold tells me rates are negative
That's ridiculous to suggest that a higher unemployment rate is good for tackling inflation. The issue with employment is whether or not the types of jobs in the market tackle the supply issues relating to goods, commodities and services that are increasingly limited with higher population growth. Any increase in unemployment will lead to a higher crime rate but that is justified because the government will hire more police officers to tackle the problem and say that's reduced the unemployment rate at the expense of higher demand for resources (because the police do not add to the supply of energy, food or commodities).
Why do Australians continue to accept a 'Managerial Class' trying to centrally plan the Economy & Countries Finances?
No rate cuts this year. Good to be optimistic though 😂
Diana for RBA governor,😂 good insights and a NORMAL human with no hidden agendas, when compared to politicians and media.
The unemployment rate is far greater than the 3.8% indicated. There is many reasons why thoes numbers are suppressed. The only reason governments both in America & Australia are pushing to for high imagration is to stem the enivetible recession via GDP per capita.
Not entirely true
More Tax payers are required to fund the bloated Welfare State Australians have been voting for
AMP economist hey. Have you seen their investment track record lately?
30:48 The government did well during the pandemic 😂
Get used to the current interest rates, they are at fairly normal levels. 2% home loan rate is something which is not likely to occur again in our life time. Economy running too hot for rate cuts. 4.35% RBA Cash rate is here to stay for a long while.
Yep and not only that, but if the rates are dropped, everyone will have the usual fight with the banksters to pass the rates cuts on to the mortgage holders.
@@jonh9561 I don't think any bank will have the courage to not pass on in full.
@@marcoschena99 They've all done it countless times before.
True. People are hanging out for the next cut, media and government will shame any bank that holds back. Anyway I don’t believe this will happen any time soon unless something changes in the economy
@@jonh9561 Let's see. Wont be for a long while.
I think it’s apra banking standards that should be the ones to keep property market in check. Not rba or government
with the mess immigration, how on earth the unemployment rate is still up?
The quality of employment must be shocking to be fair. Purchasing power is surely shot.
Mark - Please interview more people based on demographics and the economy. There are real data sets like what are in the Intergenerational Report 2023. Australia is punishing the ages of 25-45 right now and we are falling off a cliff that no one is calling out in reference to the innovation and business investment. Please find someone that is looking forward 5yrs-15yrs and applying demographics with technology advancement out of global tech super powers. I am a natural optimist in everything I do in life. I don't have the platform you have to make this heard. Your generation is responsbile for the situation we are in. Don't leave it to the next generation to not just fix the environment but also the financial system and tax law.
Inflation up, next move for rates is up.
Do NOT rely on any interest rate cuts this year.
Everything is a formula. Rather complex. This has to be the easiest country to have a strong economy. Unfortunately...
Oh, it's a mystery to me
We have a greed, with which we have agreed
And you think you have to want more than you need
Until you have it all you won't be free
Society, you're a crazy breed
I hope you're not lonely without me
Rates go down, and property prices shoot up. Rents goes up and More people become homeless.
@@These-times-are-awesomenoice!!
flawed indictors'
Oh dear, they were expecting good news from Jimmy and he does not have any!
I give the fed a 7/10 and the government a 2 /10
The music, food and surroundings on the Titanic were “good” just prior to sinking too!. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furlough is better than taxing/inflating away the $1 trillion Covid 18 months paid leave debt. Government attempts to tax Australia into prosperity is a fool’s errand. Make NO mistake-interest is a tax on money.