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Will The House Price Crash Be Like 1991 and 2008?

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  • čas přidán 3. 04. 2023
  • The last two significant falls in house prices were in 1990-94 and 2008-09. Will the current market conditions cause a similar fall in house prices or is this time different?
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    ► www.economicsh... was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
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Komentáře • 220

  • @economicshelp
    @economicshelp  Před rokem

    More on the costs of the broken UK housing market on things like birth rates, equality and opportunity. - studio.czcams.com/users/videoX2KHBkiEKOw/edit

  • @Welshie.
    @Welshie. Před rokem +73

    We NEED a house price crash. Young people cant afford to get their own homes and start families which is massively hindering us in the future.

    • @grolfe3210
      @grolfe3210 Před rokem +4

      We do not NEED a house price crash. It would not help young people. Look at the period after 2008 crash - were more young people buying more houses as they were cheaper? No! Lowest FTB rate ever.
      When mortgage rates settle back to where they have been for 10 years you will again be able to buy a starter home for less monthly than renting it.

    • @robertgroom4406
      @robertgroom4406 Před rokem +14

      @@grolfe3210 that’s rubbish. Low interest rates are the worst possible time to be a first time buyer. Prices just go up as people can borrow more, investors move in to take advantage of low rates, and low inflation means minimal wage growth won’t inflate away the value of your debt. The housing ladder loses all its rungs. The problem is a lack of supply. We need to build more properties. It’s as simple as that. The property market is dysfuntional as supply is artificially limited by people who already own property and have a vested interest in limiting supply.

    • @grolfe3210
      @grolfe3210 Před rokem

      @@robertgroom4406 I was answering a specific point re a price crash, not the general market. There are of course advantages in having some inflation and in what you say but please look at the facts - When do FTB buy houses? It is not in times of a property crash. The best time is if we have full employment so job security, and a steady economy.
      Low interest rates have pushed up prices but the fall is not there because they will come down soon.

    • @rhinoboy6603
      @rhinoboy6603 Před rokem +6

      We don’t need a crash. We need house prices to stagnate while wages rise. So I guess that would be a real terms crash if not a nominal one. But that’s not likely to happen

    • @robertgroom4406
      @robertgroom4406 Před rokem +2

      @@grolfe3210 that's what people were saying in 2003 in the run up to the last property peak, but it never happened. The reason is because supply is tight. People will not sell when the market is low. They have no reason to sell. They would rather rent out a property or remain living where they are than sell into a depressed market. Very few people are willing to sell for less than they paid - and with rental demand as it is - there's really no reason for them to do so.

  • @mssdn8976
    @mssdn8976 Před rokem +25

    Builders near us are offering big incentives to buy a new house, not reduced prices but utility bills paid for a year and upgrades at no cost. Makes me think they’re struggling to sell them

    • @robertgroom4406
      @robertgroom4406 Před rokem

      They will just stop building and wait for prices to go back up. They won’t discount prices, as they don’t want lower sale prices recorded as a precedent. They will pay stamp duty, offer moving fees, and all sorts of incentives before selling at a discount. Ultimately, demand is vastly higher than supply, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. Not with this government in power. Their voter base are all existing property owners.

    • @RB-cs5dw
      @RB-cs5dw Před rokem +2

      Indeed the r

  • @TheNorliss
    @TheNorliss Před rokem +7

    Interesting vid, mate. I'll definitely be checking out your others. I've long subscribed to the belief that the government would do all it could to prop up the housing market since after all, that's what has been happening for a couple of decades. It was under the last Labour Government that house prices shot up through the early-mid 2000s and in 2008 we arguably should have had the mother of all house price crashes, but billions handed out to banks bought some forbearance and then interest rates being nailed to the floor meant we merely ended up with a 20% correction rather than a 50%+ bloodbath. Then we've had the Tories and continued ultra-low interest rates and help to -buy- sell to pump the market, followed by the pandemic free money. Britain doesn't make anything any more and so selling houses back and forth between ourselves for increasing amounts of money has now become an absurdly large part of our GDP and the 'market' has become too big to fail.
    But recently I've started to wonder if it may be in the Tories mindset to let house prices tank. Why? They have been the architects of Brexit which let's be honest, was always a disaster capitalist's wet dream and ultimately about an even greater transfer of wealth from the masses to the elites. So why not allow their uber rich backers to swoop in and pick up loads of cheap property? I mean, in ye olde days, the Tories were supposed to be the party of the entrepreneur, the small business owner. They still very much are the party of the rentiers but they're only really interested in the billionaire-backers and offshore hedge-fund manager class now. It would explain why policy in recent years has been very anti "mom & pop" landlords/landladies (the type that they would traditionally have viewed as their natural support-base) who now appear to be being driven out of the game...

  • @mateo_dequ
    @mateo_dequ Před rokem +11

    mortgage deals are getting worse. 4.7% on 5y fixed. no way. i'd rather live in my camper-van

    • @andrewtaylor6737
      @andrewtaylor6737 Před rokem +4

      That's exactly what I will be doing, moving into my motorhome this year !

  • @billcarson9565
    @billcarson9565 Před rokem +3

    The interest rate is simply going back to where it should have been in 2007, prior to the crash of 2008, you have had 14 years of near zero % money that was printed out of thin air which drove the insanity of the last 14 years of overpaying for houses that are not worth more than 50% of their current value. its never going back to a base rate of 0.25%.

  • @Visual_Ghoul
    @Visual_Ghoul Před rokem +8

    There is a delay on mortgage data as well. Between the agreed price and the mortgage going through there is conveyancing which now takes around 4 months.

    • @abaatikalle9976
      @abaatikalle9976 Před rokem

      Nothing is right in the process of buying house unfortunately .
      It’s easier to get married and get baby than the process of buying property
      👉🏻 From Viewing to getting your keys 🔑 😡

    • @cyberstud0074
      @cyberstud0074 Před rokem

      The main problem is that some buyers quote above ask price or a price that is above market and get into a deal with the seller. As the process starts they start haggling and bring down the price. I have quoted a better price but seen not accepted and then the other buyer has re quoted and got better deal. The seller feel they have to move ahead as they are up sizing and have more profit to be made at the other side.

  • @Hession0Drasha
    @Hession0Drasha Před rokem +22

    My parents have an average family home in southampton. It is worth 400k. That is ludicrous. The maximum an average earner could ever afford on their own, over a reasonable time frame, is 200k. To live in a house like my parents, i'd need to have a better than average job, and a partner with a better than average job and we'd both have to work full time for 30 years. That, is, ludicrous. Sustainable prices? With todays wages, in the south, 2 bed house not over 200k. 3 bed not over 250k. In the north. 2 bed not over 120k. 3 bed not over 150k. I have posted a link in the comments, demonstrating the value of my parents house.

    • @smrriles5668
      @smrriles5668 Před rokem

      Average house price in Southampton is 302 k and terraced average is 270k so I think you're talking above average with the prices you are quoting

    • @zoomed66
      @zoomed66 Před rokem

      The average house in the uk is not worth nearly half a million. This is well above average.

    • @Hession0Drasha
      @Hession0Drasha Před rokem

      @@335-s2z those that have benefitted the most from the low interest rates, should be made to pay the shortfall. Wealth and capital gains taxes. It's not the average persons fault, they had to borrow so much, after all. That includes the banks, so a lot of the debt should be forgiven.

    • @Hession0Drasha
      @Hession0Drasha Před rokem +1

      @@335-s2z you know the result of that, is most young people leaving the country, or living with their parents untill they are 30, right? And consequently a tiny birthrate.

    • @Hession0Drasha
      @Hession0Drasha Před rokem

      @@smrriles5668 most of the teraces got flattened in the war. I doubt they are more than 20% of the housing stock. We have more apartments than teraces, i think. (In southampton) And you won't get a 2 bed apartment for less than 150k. I have seen 2 bed teraces for 200k in soton. 5by10m² garden, can touch opposite kitchen walls at the same time. Usually works out with less living area than a 2 bed apartment. But most of the ones i see are leaseholds.

  • @xxx-gp2sx
    @xxx-gp2sx Před rokem +1

    I am buying a house right now near London M25 ring. Another problem Which I can confirm banks are giving down valuation so more of deposit is required to buy a property if owner will not drop his price down so less amount of people have more money so prices will go down for 100%.

  • @criticsable
    @criticsable Před rokem +5

    Thank you for this video. If I may add the graph you showed about working mothers is not referring to full-time working mothers. I'm almost certain we do not have 75% mothers working full-time and earning 30k plus. So household income would not be 70k. I think many official figures refer to household income as opposed to income per person. Average household income was reported to be around £32300 last year.

    • @ruxiist
      @ruxiist Před rokem

      Is that average household disposable income or average household income?

    • @criticsable
      @criticsable Před rokem

      @@ruxiist that's average household income

    • @ruxiist
      @ruxiist Před rokem +1

      @@criticsable that can’t be right. It’s median household disposable income that was £32,300 as per the ONS
      www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2022

    • @criticsable
      @criticsable Před rokem +1

      @@ruxiist thank you for the link. The article I read referred to it as 'average household income' but that must have been incorrect. It makes sense now how people can afford such expensive mortgages.

  • @MatthewRivers-Davis
    @MatthewRivers-Davis Před rokem +12

    The more that a two-income household is required to access the housing market, the more income earners will want to work extra hours to climb the housing ladder, the more they reduce the quality of their lifestyles with less leisure time, the more they will have domestic relationship pressures creating a work-life balance, the more separations and divorce rates will increase the more demand for unaffordable single-occupancy accommodations. Throw into the mix, declining real wages, higher interest rates and the difficulty/unaffordability of a cheap foreign holiday to relieve the stress with higher fuel prices - no wonder the birth rate is declining.

    • @economicshelp
      @economicshelp  Před rokem +2

      Yes. That is good point. Ever more pressure to keep working. Definitely affecting birth rate.

    • @darkangel686868
      @darkangel686868 Před rokem +1

      Could not have said it better myself. I think economic pressures is one of the leading causes of divorce these days. Relationships require individuals who are well rested on their time off, with enough quality leisure and recreation time together. Without this the relationship is a ticking time bomb.

  • @johnswift1736
    @johnswift1736 Před rokem +1

    A crash will do nothing for young buyers. Mortgage interest rates will be high and they will not have the cash to buy. Investors with large deposits will get in first. Houses are now taxed so much that young people cannot invest. Sunak hadd attacked the people that own property with cgt, stamp duty, inheritance etc. This has also affected all young property investors. Also when a couple separate, the house monies are lost. And the couple cannot survive alone financially.

  • @MatthewRivers-Davis
    @MatthewRivers-Davis Před rokem +3

    Thanks, Tejvan for this deep dive analysis - I wonder if house price deflation might be linked less to interest rate rises reducing borrowing-led demand but more related to the post-Covid trends of people no-longer wanting to have a two-home household ownership in town and country, the removal of the stamp-duty benefit and Brexit no-longer allowing the movement of capital from European investors to buy UK houses. I don't see retail banks offering higher interest rates despite the base rate increase so the savings ratio isn't going to change and divert incomes into savings accounts. As house prices are still many times annual incomes, the majority of houses are bought by those with wealth and passive income from wealth or passed to the children of the wealthy via the bank of mum and dad - so the effect of interest rates will not impact non-borrowers. If wages rise most of this will trickle up to the wealthy asset holders who will extract wage increases with higher rents. Same principle as student rental accommodation went up with the liquidity of student loans - exorbitant compared to my day in the 80s when my bedsit student accommodation was almost indexed to my meagre council student grant.

    • @Finderskeepers.
      @Finderskeepers. Před rokem

      The majority of houses are bought by the average person with a wage and a mortgage hence the price drops, borrowing costs are up. The majority own 1 home not a town and a country pad. Rent is a product of supply and demand both in the 80's and today.

  • @0runny
    @0runny Před rokem +1

    ALL prices should be measured in real terms, NOT nominal. Only then can we get the real picture and compare figures over the long term. Thanks for the video - again!

  • @oldskoolmusicnostalgia
    @oldskoolmusicnostalgia Před rokem +1

    -20% doesn't really make housing affordable when its prices have been rising much more than that over a much longer period. It's the same as with inflation, even when inflation slows down life doesn't suddenly become easier for people.

  • @paulcottam128
    @paulcottam128 Před rokem +5

    I have been tracking house prices local to me for a year now as it was obvious the earnings to borrowing ratio has become affordable for a while but in the last 12 months here the price haven't really fallen at all BUT prices have stopped increasing over the last 6 months and are they taking a little longer to sell but they are still selling , all depends on this years interest rates and existing home owner mortgage deals coming to renewal

  • @sunshinegirl4715
    @sunshinegirl4715 Před rokem +1

    The bottom line is that, while house prices are not the most expensive in the world, wages/salaries in the UK are APPALLING. We are very backwards, too, in the availability of tax concessions and mortgage products, eg offset mortgages and tax relief on investment property mortgage interest.

  • @user-ob4em4ge6c
    @user-ob4em4ge6c Před rokem

    Airbnb busts in Florida is very bad. Inventory is climbing rapidly. Properties are sitting for months, with no foot traffic. None. This time is different. Just feels like something bad is brewing.

  • @uweinhamburg
    @uweinhamburg Před rokem +2

    That is worse for the UJ than it would be for other western societies, as the pensions are very low in the UK and either income from renting or living in your own home rent-free has for a long time been a compensation for it...

  • @SlackHoffman
    @SlackHoffman Před rokem +2

    On average over a 110 year period house 🏡 prices have doubled every 10/15 years

  • @MrWaterbugdesign
    @MrWaterbugdesign Před rokem

    Average house could be priced at 3x if you built enough houses AND people wanted to live there. But people don't want to live "there". They want to live in a few tiny areas. It's the land a house sits on that goes up and down as a scarce resource. Cost of materials and labor to build a structure changes with inflation.
    If you wanted lower values in those popular areas you'd have to increase density. Tear down existing structures to build up. But people already in these tiny popular areas don't like that and with good reason. But even building up isn't much of a solution because you've only dug a hole in the sand..it will fill in. So you have to build more and more until you've built more than needed. You drop values you need a bunch of empty homes.
    OR you create additional tiny super popular areas to draw demand away from already popular areas. When was the last time UK did that? 47 AD?

  • @doug2279
    @doug2279 Před rokem

    Also often the fall of 10% may not mean all houses fall by 10% but IMO some overvalued ones fall by 20% but the good value ones may only fall 3% or 5% as often its the silly prices that some chococalte box cottages go for drops and then the bottom houses also fall a lot eg the ones with no garden or corridor or front-to-back but the decent ones moderately unmodernised on nice streets only fall a bit as the market compresses. Remember that house that was third choice people just took as there was a shortage of available property? That now sits on the market and everybody sees its shortcomings and its reputation declines and eventually if the seller has to sell it then it sells for a much bigger discount than in a hot market

  • @XONNIE2011
    @XONNIE2011 Před rokem +2

    You should never use Japan house prices as compare, due to earthquakes, old houses price drops sharply because of construction new standarts.

  • @sunnysparkles4729
    @sunnysparkles4729 Před rokem +1

    Interest rates put the value of land up, inflation is pressure on everything else, such as building and maintenance, so no, I don't think house prices will fall.
    Rents will rise.

  • @jamessmith5554
    @jamessmith5554 Před rokem +1

    Thanks for taking up my previous comment re being fairly common now that two full time earners per household. So can afford bigger mortgages.

  • @davejohnston5158
    @davejohnston5158 Před rokem

    Medium term headwinds to house market confidence include:- Inflation eroding spending ability, unemployment in certain sectors caused by reduced spending, raised interest rates unlikely to fall for at least a couple of years, perceived wealth reducing due to pension fund reductions, BRICS nations walking away from dollar domination - affecting the pound, OPEC reductions in output increasing crude oil price - making everything more expensive, war in Ukraine weighing on confidence and sentiment. Housing values may get supported by foreign buyers particularly in London but they are more likely to wait for the market to clearly bottom out.

  • @el--le
    @el--le Před rokem

    Thanks for making this brilliant data accessible to us! May I ask which software you use to make the charts?

  • @SlackHoffman
    @SlackHoffman Před rokem +5

    The lack of housing stock will likely always keep property prices buoyant

  • @user-ob4em4ge6c
    @user-ob4em4ge6c Před rokem

    Case shiller numbers are out for April. -13% nationally in hone values for April, alone.

  • @madmountainman5197
    @madmountainman5197 Před rokem +3

    Ok, you've completely disregarded the ending of Help To Buy, which has removed 20% of FTB's purchasing deposit (40% in London) which they're now going to have to finance themselves. Real wages are falling, inflation's continuing to rise and OPEC have just started a financial war on the Dollar, by raising the cost of a barrle of crude. Tell me all of that's not going to significantly affect house price falls???

    • @jamesbarker4808
      @jamesbarker4808 Před rokem

      We are in a new Cold War. The BRICS+ nations plus OPEC are deliberately going to push up Western inflation whilst also crashing the petro dollar. I think uk house prices can only fall.

    • @grahambuckingham7295
      @grahambuckingham7295 Před rokem

      Good points.

  • @cacwgm
    @cacwgm Před rokem

    You mention the rise of multi-earner households. Would it be possible to use average or median earnings per household against average or median house prices? I agree that it may be a more meaningful ratio.

  • @patpalloon
    @patpalloon Před rokem

    Great video - and I think you have got it right. I follow a number of propertyr/economic people on social media but you are the best one 👍

    • @grolfe3210
      @grolfe3210 Před rokem +1

      The market has certainly slowed down but there is really no sign of a crash so (as usual) his prediction is completely wrong.

  • @sukd2669
    @sukd2669 Před rokem +1

    if they measured inflation the same way as they did in history it would show something different than a long term fall in rates. institutions have changed everything and give wrong advice as well.

  • @naeedaafzal3055
    @naeedaafzal3055 Před 4 měsíci

    They need to drop 40-50% as houses 550k not selling, cannot believe they are still ptting houses up 600k up only 3 bed 😮

  • @IIC-GusBadran
    @IIC-GusBadran Před rokem

    Dear Tejvan, could you do video on the impact of low R&D investment related GDP growth. I'm a new subscriber and I like your research. Gus

  • @harlyslamm2888
    @harlyslamm2888 Před rokem

    face it, house prices may fall 10-15%, but many houses already fall 10-15%! but there are too many cash buyers out there, including investors and institutions. More likely, house prices will stagnate, maybe over a decade as people affordability vs living will mean people will choose to live rather than buy a house at all cost!
    Earnings will catch up, so over the years, the Price/Earnings ratio will actually fall as inflation erodes house prices to a point where it will be affordable to many

  • @50037
    @50037 Před rokem +3

    I worked in Mortgages in 1998, the company I worked for had a base rate of 9.1% then!

    • @mssdn8976
      @mssdn8976 Před rokem

      I remember that, nearly crippled us

    • @economicshelp
      @economicshelp  Před rokem

      Early 1990s. 15%. No wonder the market suffered for four years.

    • @One-tw5nw
      @One-tw5nw Před rokem +1

      And yet houses cost 2.5p then. Real terms cost of rates is higher than 9.1% now

    • @staycasual7203
      @staycasual7203 Před rokem +2

      Houses were around 3.5 x annual salary then, they are now 9 x annual salary!!!!! Not a fair comparison

    • @50037
      @50037 Před rokem +1

      @@staycasual7203 agree, low interest rates have caused the problem.

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Před rokem

    I believe that the banks use mortgages as part of their assets as security which allows them to lend money.

  • @tusnguyen4139
    @tusnguyen4139 Před rokem

    Do you have any discount code to buy a book from you website?

  • @danceswithbadgers
    @danceswithbadgers Před rokem

    House prices are genarally ridiculous, granted - but owners of houses which are suppressed in value because they're leasehold will suffer even further than they are now. My property, inherited after I spent 10 years living with my mother in order to look after her, is worth about half of what it should be because buyers can't get a proper mortgage for it as half the leasehold is gone. I can't afford, at 64, to buy anything anywhere else. I'm stuck here forever unless my property magically recovers its proper place in the housing market. I've been trying to sell up in order to rent fir a whole year, during which time I've lost three buyers. That's a reality shared by thousands -, stuck forever in property at the arse-end of the market. What a country.....

  • @rebeccagrundy5987
    @rebeccagrundy5987 Před rokem +2

    The current strikes and wage rises will most likely stop real house prices falling, they will become more affordable as wages go up further. teachers today have refused a pay offer with further strikes to come, passport office, amazon, Heathrow staff just to name a few are due to go on strike. The issues is inflation of everything not just house prices wages will have to go up meaning people can borrow more, once people get used to rates staying 4-5% the housing market will carry on as normal after a small dip. People have been waiting years for a crash or affordability to improve it's just not happened. The market has definitely slowed but inventory isn't massively increasing.

  • @Andrew-vx2ls
    @Andrew-vx2ls Před rokem

    The drop will be variable according to location but needs to take into account a large amount of froth. The reality will be a correction to about 40% of the current level.

    • @grolfe3210
      @grolfe3210 Před rokem

      And here we are 2 months later and not even a drop!
      The market will slow down for 6 months from now with sellers taking offers if they are keen to sell but apart from that it will just stagnate but pick up early 2024.
      Inflation and interest rates will be half current levels by then.

    • @Andrew-vx2ls
      @Andrew-vx2ls Před rokem

      @@grolfe3210 1. Property markets take time to adjust. Not enough distress so far. 2. Brexit is not going away and the Gov has yet to bring in import checks...just imagine what will happen to GB food inflation (and interest rates) !!! Yikes!!

    • @grolfe3210
      @grolfe3210 Před rokem

      @@Andrew-vx2ls Yes Brexit will not go away but as earlier, any change to imports are one-off events not continued rises. Once inflation is downward then the BOE will reverse its policy.
      Also remember the Tories will make sure it is all on the up for the coming General Election.

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Před rokem

    So what does a homeowner do when their mortgage doubles ?

  • @AdamWebb1982
    @AdamWebb1982 Před rokem

    I live in London, Im 41, live with my parents, and have a substantial deposit available, however i can only lend 90-100k which leaves me short on house prices here. However in Scotland i can buy a nice sized flat for CASH... Screw London :(

  • @sedzialaguna
    @sedzialaguna Před rokem +6

    Everyone's talking about crash, crash, crash.
    I've been looking at houses in my area since aug\sep 2022 and can't see any signs of a crash. Nice houses with nicely done kitchens are still selling and albeit you can see some price reductions on houses that have been on website for a while these are not massive and new houses being put on are still ridiculously overpriced .
    Got to say in terms of value for money - housing market in UK is horrendous.
    The very definition of a rip-off.

    • @abaatikalle9976
      @abaatikalle9976 Před rokem +1

      Definitely Rip off 💯%

    • @mateo_dequ
      @mateo_dequ Před rokem +2

      one house in the UK can buys a whole village in Bulgaria ; )

    • @ionut7108
      @ionut7108 Před rokem +1

      ​@@mateo_dequ and one house in bulgaria can buy an entire village in uganda. What's your point? Did you asked Bulgarians why they move to uk and buy houses here?

    • @sedzialaguna
      @sedzialaguna Před rokem +1

      @Matom_Sky I'm comparing apples with apples so looking at G7 countries (although not sure how much longer for UK will be considered one).
      None of which have so inflated prices and such substandard quality.
      Brits are being mugged.

    • @mateo_dequ
      @mateo_dequ Před rokem

      @@ionut7108 my point is that when i was visiting my British friends in Bulgaria, there was more British in the village than locals.

  • @AM_o2000
    @AM_o2000 Před rokem

    Thanks Tejvan. Do you think interest rates will have to rise further, what with the current base rate not actually having brought inflation down towards target and even having allowed it to creep back up from 10.1% to 10.4%, and with the banking crisis seemingly contained?

    • @economicshelp
      @economicshelp  Před rokem

      I think even last base rate rise was dubious given state of economy. Inflation halved in Europe recently due to oil/gas price rises falling out of index.

    • @grolfe3210
      @grolfe3210 Před rokem

      Interest rate was the wrong answer to inflation. It is not from an overheated economy but from outside factors pushing up prices. So when all that drops out the stats inflation will fall as will interest rates.

    • @davewright9313
      @davewright9313 Před rokem +1

      Oil is gonna go up back to $100. A barrel if china takes off

    • @chloes3897
      @chloes3897 Před rokem

      Exactly what I was about to say Dave, food inflation and oil production being cut means inflation will remain high/er. More of our wages will be spent on necessities and unable to save less money or spend for leisure, negatively impacting the economy. BOE will have to raise rates higher, how high who knows. It’s all a guessing game.

  • @ts6070
    @ts6070 Před rokem

    No point having a housing crash 💥 when BOE interest rates at 8% the whole UK system is broken with too few house 🏡 is the real cause of the UK house prices so need millions of UK new homes 🏡 to help rents and house prices control will now only be controlled by supply side economics!

  • @jonsnow6741
    @jonsnow6741 Před rokem +1

    do not make the mistake of thinking if the prices fall happy days as the banks will not lend you the money .

    • @voice.of.reason
      @voice.of.reason Před rokem

      Makes no difference to those of us in cash in the UK and abroad taking advantage of a weak £

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Před rokem

    No increase in saving rates !

  • @samcarena4702
    @samcarena4702 Před rokem

    Hoping prices tank through the floor

  • @JamieHowie93
    @JamieHowie93 Před rokem

    really enjoying your videos. I am a young(ish) person that's saved just enough to buy a property. What would you do in my shoes? wait for a few months, or just buy now as I am ready?

    • @davewright9313
      @davewright9313 Před rokem

      It will take years to get bottom not months housing has a long lag.

    • @rebeccagrundy5987
      @rebeccagrundy5987 Před rokem +1

      The actual real price may not come down much if inflation continues wages will go up and they have to as it's not just house prices that are high all other commodities have rose in price, these prices will not come diwn unless we have a period if deflation which the central banks definitely don't want. Remember central banks accross the world are in massive amounts of debt they need Inflation to inflate the debt away, this is a whole different situation to previous 'crashes'

    • @davewright9313
      @davewright9313 Před rokem

      @@rebeccagrundy5987 actually real prices are coming down already 5k last month

    • @Finderskeepers.
      @Finderskeepers. Před rokem +1

      Depends on how long you think the purchase is for. If its for life, buy when you see an affordable house that ticks most of your boxes rather than waiting for the market. If its a stepping stone, it might be time for a cheeky offer and who knows. Be active but not in a rush and take advantage of the lack of competition provided its at the right price.

    • @midlifecarsis6420
      @midlifecarsis6420 Před rokem +1

      Buy whatever you can afford as soon as you can. People waiting forever for a cRaSh tend to end up sat watching CZcams in a rental two years later wondering why they can't afford to buy.

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Před rokem

    People would suffer from negative equity

  • @davewright9313
    @davewright9313 Před rokem

    Interest rates don't matter as much as wages and there due to fall even more

  • @beaverundercover3479
    @beaverundercover3479 Před rokem

    Is now a good time to invest or pay the mortgage?

    • @One-tw5nw
      @One-tw5nw Před rokem

      Whats your rate?

    • @beaverundercover3479
      @beaverundercover3479 Před rokem

      @@One-tw5nw 6% but looks like heading up.

    • @One-tw5nw
      @One-tw5nw Před rokem +1

      @Beaver Undercover Pay your mortgage off. You aren't realistically gonna beat that after tax.

  • @fruit4health329
    @fruit4health329 Před rokem +1

    short answer is no. regarding 2008 i watched house prices plummet before the FED set the precident of QE. it took a while for them to decide to do QE, so during that interim period prices fell. Now they just QE immediately . so as much as I would like them to fall ... I dont see how they can with central banks ready to print.

    • @madmountainman5197
      @madmountainman5197 Před rokem +1

      They're not QE-ing to shore up domestic house prices, they're doing it because the big investment companies are defaulting on their mortgage backed securities in the commercial sector, which in turn has the longer term problem of affecting pensions.

    • @fruit4health329
      @fruit4health329 Před rokem

      @@madmountainman5197 sure. i understand they are not doing QE for house prices. but regardless of the reason ... if the central banks can print ... prices of everything rise.

  • @alanbuckingham8788
    @alanbuckingham8788 Před rokem

    Halifax report house prices rose 0.8% in March. Annual change of +1.6% Back to learn economics 101 for you, pal.

  • @First_Principals
    @First_Principals Před rokem +1

    Everything is priced wrong and everything needs to go back to the historical mean.

    • @economicshelp
      @economicshelp  Před rokem

      It would be nice to go back to historical mean, but unfortunately, unlikely at moment.

  • @connormcleod9595
    @connormcleod9595 Před rokem

    20%+ correction.. Yippee

  • @lexnouwens1894
    @lexnouwens1894 Před rokem

    Between 2025 and 2028. Things need to become a bit more crazy before then.

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Před rokem

    Too much demand not enough supply

  • @paulsaintclair9761
    @paulsaintclair9761 Před rokem

    2008 u mean ?????

  • @riccardo-964
    @riccardo-964 Před rokem +1

    Waiting............... waiting................ landlords, your time is gonna come................

  • @grolfe3210
    @grolfe3210 Před rokem +1

    No because there is no crash. Prices went up 0.8% last month (third month of rises) according to Halifax.

    • @kurohoshi4370
      @kurohoshi4370 Před rokem

      " @Kuro Hoshi Sorry but you are missing a vital part. This will blow your mind!!
      You buy a flat for £100k with deposit/equity of £20k and a mortgage of £80k, and you earn £20k (so borrow 4x income).
      You really want a nice house that is £145k but cannot afford and cannot borrow that much.
      You say things will not change. But you forget the mortgage does not rise with inflation.
      So let us say all the figures double with inflation.
      Sell for £200k Paid off £10k of the mortgage so now have £130 deposit/equity.
      Nice house is now £290k of course. You have £130 so need a new mortgage of £160. You now earn £40k and borrow 4x income so £160k.
      The flat ownership has enabled you to afford the nice house. So having the cheaper smaller house DOES make the bigger house affordable. It is called the property ladder and is how old people end up with a great big house all paid for. "
      I think you misunderstood me. I was referring to the misconception that by increasing the price of the cheaper house makes a more expensive house more affordable but what is not taken in to account here is that due to the way percentages work, the price of the more expensive house will increase more greatly thus 10% of 100k is 10k and 10% of 200k is 20k. At 100k and 200k there is a 100k gap between the 2 houses however at at 110k and 220k there is now a 110k gap and this increases as they are inflated higher. If it were a 20% increase instead of a 10% increase then the prices become 120k and 240k which leads to a 120k gap.
      So lets compare the 2 scenarios where prices stay static and where prices double. For simplicity we will keep interest rates fixed at 3% for a 30 year mortgage
      If you sold your 100k flat for the same price you bought it at 100k after 6 years of ownership which means you will have paid off 10.6k in equity and 13.6k in interest done via a monthly payment of 337 and have 69400 left of your mortgage to pay off. Lets say you get charged an early repayment penalty of 5% on that 69400 remaining debt thus paying 72870 leaving you 27130 left from the 100k you sold for. In total thus far you will hold 27130 from the sale but will have paid a total of 97070 to the bank. Then you put the 27130 into the 145k house so your mortgage will be 117870 and on a 3% interest 30 year mortgage that would total to 178920 (115508 equity + 63411 interest). This would mean a total cost paid to bank of 97070 + 27130 + 178920 = 303120.
      If you sold your 100k flat for 200k and after 6 years of ownership you paid 10.6k in equity and 13.6k in interest via monthly payments of 337 with 69400 left of your debt. Then paying the 5% penalty of the remaining debt which is 72870, you will be left with 127130. Your total cost paid to the bank thus far would be 97070. Since the 145k house doubled to 290k then putting in the 127130 in as deposit would mean a mortgage loan of 162870 and with an interest rate of 3% for 30 years that mortgage would total to 247320 (159753 equity + 87566 interest). This would mean a total cost paid to bank of 97070 + 127130 + 247320 = 471520.
      This is a difference of 168400 between the 2 scenarios (the sell houses for 2x price cost us 168400 more to upgrade). It benefits us if people did not increase the price of houses.

    • @SlackHoffman
      @SlackHoffman Před rokem

      Exactly

  • @bonniethompson2019
    @bonniethompson2019 Před rokem

    Yes, we will see it because it's a scam and they pay no price for their greed.

  • @patdbean
    @patdbean Před rokem +2

    3:20 the uk may have an aging population, but we still have a growing population. By 300k+ a year. Japan has a falling population.
    All the time we allow our population to increase by 4 million a decade. We will not have a long term fall in house price.

    • @fl-ri-
      @fl-ri- Před rokem +3

      B-but diversity is our greatest strength!

    • @patdbean
      @patdbean Před rokem

      @@fl-ri- so, 68. Million today. So what 72 million by 2030? 77 million by 2040?
      Today our population density is 1100 people per square mile , germany's is 600, France's is under 300! . So don't tell me we that we need to "bend over " and take more immigrants.

    • @celestecanyon
      @celestecanyon Před rokem +2

      ​@@fl-ri-Should swap 'em for you braincell. No loss to man or beast

    • @fl-ri-
      @fl-ri- Před rokem +2

      @@celestecanyon Oh the irony.

    • @jimpaddy79
      @jimpaddy79 Před rokem +2

      @@fl-ri- there was 700,000 baby born in the UK last year, and the nation is 78% white so you don’t need to be afraid of some diversity

  • @jasbindersingh2441
    @jasbindersingh2441 Před rokem

    Any idea when it became possible for ....couples....to screw a bank for double the amount of cash prior... was it a tory invention under thatcher ?

    • @terryj50
      @terryj50 Před rokem

      Yet the price of homes increased far more under the last labour gov than all Tory governments.

  • @terryj50
    @terryj50 Před rokem

    Both of them were in the eu. And seems people are blaming brexit lol

  • @Isomoar
    @Isomoar Před rokem

    This is what we get for decades of neoliberal rule, people will keep voting for them though...

  • @grolfe3210
    @grolfe3210 Před rokem +1

    "Will The House Price Crash Be Like 1991 and 2008?"
    I lost the will to live after 5 mins.
    Basically the bit I saw about earnings ratio is outdated and not relevant now, the fact we have cheaper starter homes is ignored and the fact that demand has outstripped supply for years is also ignored.
    Bank of England confirms inflation will fall, so interest will drop back and housing market will get back to normal in 6 months. So no one will be selling a house much under current value if it will be full price in 6 months.
    There will just be a slow period of sales until the summer.

    • @voice.of.reason
      @voice.of.reason Před rokem

      The Bank of England can't confirm jack shit, it didn't see any inflation coming so it won't see inflation persisting. Hell, 2 members of the MPC haven't voted for rate hikes and are worrying about inflation going under 2%! Under 2 % is good. Inflation ought to be negative, we need prices to fall to undo some of this hyper inflation over the past 2 years

  • @Littletime839
    @Littletime839 Před rokem +20

    Congratulations Feminism. Instead of supporting your husband and family you are now supporting your boss and corporate profits. And what is your reward? Economic hardship and loneliness in your older years.

    • @joetodd4351
      @joetodd4351 Před rokem +5

      Yes, that was something else that was not entirely organic and used to manipulate by TPTB. More tears in the social fabric of family life and an even bigger debt trap.

    • @mateo_dequ
      @mateo_dequ Před rokem

      interesting take. the world is full of left wing propaganda.

    • @Goudaisgouda
      @Goudaisgouda Před rokem +12

      What the hell. Blames feminism and not capitalism, makes sense

    • @Littletime839
      @Littletime839 Před rokem +1

      @@Goudaisgouda Traditional feminism was about equality for women, which anyone should support. Post-modern feminism however is a product of Capitalism, a mass manipulation designed to create more workers under the guise of women's liberation.

    • @joetodd4351
      @joetodd4351 Před rokem +2

      @@Littletime839 Correct.