The Game You Quit
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- čas přidán 24. 03. 2019
- By choosing to watch this video, you’ve already won… the game of quitting.
In 1958, John H. Fox, Jr. of the Minneapolis-Honeywell Regulator Company and L Gerald Marnie of MIT invented “The Game of Googol,” which revealed a seminal concept in the art of optimal stopping theory. The premise was simple: when given a series of choices, when do we finally decide to commit? When do we stop exploring alternatives and actually choose so that we maximize our payoff? How do we do that without just guessing?
The solution to knowing when to stop involves harnessing the power of Euler’s number, and it shows up in our lives every day. It’s how we decide when to choose a parking spot so we don’t have to drive all the way back around again. It’s how we decide who to commit to for life after having a series of relationships.
And we won’t always win. In fact, most of the time we won’t get it perfectly right. But employing optimal stopping in The Game of Googol is just like employing it in real life. We’ll win as much as possible, and when we miss by a little bit, we’ll still be pretty happy with the result.
** SOURCES **
For a great in-depth look at Euler’s Number, check out Numberphile: • e (Euler's Number) - N...
Frontal-parietal and limbic-striatal activity underlies information sampling in the best choice problem: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2...
A Solution to the Game of Googol, Alexander V. Gnedin: projecteuclid.org/download/pd...
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/ @tommocarroll
Huge Thanks To Paula Lieber
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#education #vsauce2
Some commenters have made an important point: there are definitely times when you do NOT want to be Eule-y to the max. Sometimes you need to break away from the rigid rules of the game.
For example, if you have 100 slips in The Game of Googol and one of your sample slips contains a number with 99 zeroes, you’d want to commit to it. You understand that the number is very close to the maximum, and with something like 90 slips left, the odds that you’d draw a number higher than that are extremely low. There just aren’t enough options, so it just wouldn’t make sense to keep turning over slips just because your system tells you to.
A reliable, math-based system is awesome... but when you know, you know.
If it's a random selection from 0 to 10^100, wouldn't 1x10^99 be in the bottom 10th percentile?
Anyway, I gotta go talk to 3.8billion/e women real quick if I want to find "the one"
Something's missing, how long do you continue if you do not pick a number higher than one in the first 40%? (Also screw e right, fourty %) If we've no idea of the top #, how much longer do we pick until we settle for something less?
Can you tell how wormholes work (the paradox)
I think the key assumption that makes The Game of Googol admit a better strategy is that you know a priori the range of numbers allowable. So you should be able to use this to avoid the initial search and instead determine the value to be exceeded at the start of your search.
That's probably what all that math you had there and tossed out said.
Everyone: The game is all about luc-
Kevin: E
Luce?
@@mariafe7050 luck
maria fe everyone thinks the game is about luck, but then kevin just talks about e in this video (if u still didnt get the joke, what is ur life?)
e*
_the number e_
8:54 Kepler:
"Hey, sorry I rejected you, I just thought I could do better. Guess I was wrong."
p01ar b3ar DONT LIKE THE COMMENT! (69)
E
His chances are 1/3. Same as every other marriage in history : )
Lol
If Kepler is a player, then he’s playing in the higher difficulty
The most important question here:
How does a googol fit on such a small piece of paper?
10^100
@@kasimhanif3478 you forgot the ( ) maifren
Edit: very well now
E
@@sansleskeleton5570 --e
Maybe write "G" instead
Me: what’s your favorite number
Kevin: EEEEEEEEEEE
E
EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
EEEEEEEEEE
E
E
E
E
EEEEEEEEEE
E
E
E
E
EEEEEEEEEE
Whoa. Calm down there, Wall-E.
Me: *doesn't quit*
Game: Wait. This is Illegal.
I Did The Same
That's*
NitroOne seeing someone mess up a meme pains me
I made this comment have 666 likes I am Satan! 😈
@@mariafe7050 Ha.
"will you go out with me?"
"hol up, lemme check"
*opens desmos app*
plot twist: the first number was the highest
If the first number is the highest, you will probably know the moment you see it :P
But wut if the first number was 10
@@cjfdnqkn4374 there’s still a 1/3 chance of being right
The first number was lower than the second?
it still works because the first munber is very unlikely to be the best amongst the vast selections and the probably is extremely low
"When exactly, mathematically, do we start stopping?"
From what i understood you immediately stop after finding the number higher than the sample with the highest number
Right before you stop starting.
@@grutfrut5817 and right after you start farting
@@DoctrZhivago you start stopping when you stop starting stopping
@@SCOOTYBOOTYPATOOTY Surely you can't start to stop until you've started starting to stop, and you can't start starting to stop until you've started starting starting to stop... (ad infinitum).
I found the love of my life hidden in plane math. I'm an aeronautical engineer.
What?
i was thinking about going into Aeronautics, got any tips?
Quit
@@miguelyepez8413 i haven't started yet
@@jessespence8332 i'm going to Uni soon to do that.
CZcams poll: *has 5 options in it*
Everyone:
2:19
This is the type of math I wish I could have figured out when I used to watch deal or no deal.
I always felt like it logically made sense to open up a certain number of cases first before even thinking to settle on one
True, I never thought about applying it to that game!
You don't need this for that, it's a pretty simple math problem to calculate ev. It's basically always better to keep opening, the game is more about how risk adverse you are
"When should I stop, I honestly don't know" Five seconds later: "The odds of my me choosing correctly are 1 in 3 because I'm going to employ optimal stopping theory."
I decided to stop scrolling when I reached this comment
When exactly should I stop?
I honestly don't know, but this system gives me a 12.5% chance of getting the best result, by surveying ~37% of the pool.
Sounds like an anime character being extra smart for no reason
Well the idea for "should" stop isn't confined to what WE know, but to what there is. So he still honestly didn't know when he should stop, just when is statistically the best time to.
Same but 4 years later@@Jessiemats
I can’t wait for the April Fool’s Vsauce2 video. You just know there’s gonna be one.
Ayyyy! I loved your Lost in Silence vid! Tom beating up Paul!!!
DCO Nightingale i hope they teach us something real and watch as everyone tries to find whats wrong
MarbleSwan666 It’ll be some game that’s total nonsense and Kevin will be presenting it as if he’s serious.
Explaining how 0 is equal to 1
About some game that he completely makes up, with a mathematical principle that he completely makes up.
3:05
"The key is... e."
Kevin, Vsauce2
The number e
*E*
E
E
E
Kevin: You just need to quit
Also Kevin: This is sponsered by LastPass
Computer: What is your Password?
Me: I'm so confused if I should quit remembering or use LastPass
E
Kevin: "e. The number."
Me: *distant screaming
lmaooo me_irl
*Confused screaming*
I winder how you'll respond to the number 'i'
*broken mind noises*
I am confused confuaing confusion
Soooooooo for the love of my life I just have to date approximatly 1.2 billion women and then take the next one that's better and I'll have the love of my life... sounds easy enough
dont worry no one wants to date you, 0/e is 0
You're a primate. You have a social sphere of roughly 150 people. ~75 women. Let's argue that MAYBE 10% could be considered sexually available to you. Date 3. Marry the next one who is better than the previous 3 - unless of course you find a complete stand out earlier on.
Data indicates people with fewer sexual partners live happier lives - despite what modern media tends to suggest. Yes, ~50% of marriages end in divorce, but that means ~50% of marriages last until death - that's not a bad rate of success for any multi decade endeavour. IIRC small businesses fail in the first few years ~2/3rds of the time.
@@c6q3a24 "yes 50% of marriages end in divorce" if that was all there was to it, then it wouldn't be a scary thing at all and you'd be crazy to not play the odds. problem is, that 50% chance of divorce translates to a 50% chance of losing everything you've ever managed to obtain up until now and most of what you will make in the future until death. enjoy trying to roll the dice with another woman whilst being homeless and having to give over half of your paycheck to your ex-wife. Looking at it like that, you have ONE chance and only one chance.
You can also think of it as "the amount of women you will meet before in a lifetime"/e
Actually, no. You have 1/3 odds of choosing the best one. Fortunately for all of us, there are lots of people that are good matches.
Kevin: let's get euel-y
Ricardo: *_been there done that_*
Pssred
E
Let's get djdidisiaabdncjzosjdcnxnxkxoso'd
“You’re Johannes Kepler, and I’m BACHELORETTE NUMBER 5.”
Kevin Vsause2
E
Someone challenges me to a game of googol
Me: Hand me a calculator.
No divide by 4 if you round it up
E
@@yeetboy9231 what?
Hey Vscause, Kevin here, and-
Me: *gets ready for the intellectual bomb*
Vscause2: *_I HAVE A 100 PIECES OF PAPER_*
1000IQ gained
Vsauce*
♾ IQ received every time
Noice
OMG 100 pieces of paper is soooooooo intelligent
The thing with a lot of these generalized optimization of stopping problems is that you know the best spot you can find, or at least the limit that you’d be happy with. For instance, I may not know that this is the best video on the entirety of the internet, but it’s one that I will find enjoyment in watching, so I watched it.
A satisficing decision criterion.
Vsauce: You didn’t scroll through every CZcams video and decide to watch this one.
Me: Um... sure 😬
E
Education: spend 20 years in school then u might make 60 000 a year
VsauceKevin: *QUIT*
This is a white ELEPHANT Quit, but only after 20/e years
This is a white ELEPHANT exchange
@@Dylzhaar 7.35758882343
Bill gates was studying law at Havard , lowest period to complete degree was 5.5 years . 5.5 years = 66 months .... 66 / 2.71828 = 24 months . Bill Gates quit after 2 years .
Bhaalspawn84 Yeah, socialism ftw. JK, no sane person would want to pay that high taxes
VSauce2: The key is E!
Markiplier: Am I a joke to you?
Jacksepticeye: SPEED IS KEYYY!!!
Doesn’t really make sense but okay
@@dabs5081 Yes it does: czcams.com/video/1bG8WcFk17Y/video.html
Sub to PEWDIEPIE and KREATIVITYBOOST also plz!
Subscribe to PEWDIEPIE and KREATIVITYBOOST
Subscribe to PEWDIEPIE and KREATIVITYBOOST
You have taken on a combination of mathematics and human-deciding making in one clip, and I truly understood it! Thank you.
I ran a program to test the accuracy of this method and its actually very close to 1/3. Sometimes maths just blows me.
For me, a programmer, math just tends to f*ck me a lot.
Does that mean I'm luckier or unluckier than you?
I ended up recreating this game in Excel and playing for like an hour. There goes my lunch break I guess...
E
How?
@@kabirghai8709 by using excel you moron
@@Xanthopathy Ik he uses Excel, I’m asking what to do IN Excel
@@Xanthopathy why so mean 😂
Pronouncing the o in googol so you don’t get demonetized.
This guy nah google owns CZcams
Aidan Flynn You can never be too safe.
I don't think it works that way .... Proper nouns can't be copyright claimed for saying them xD
Actually Google gets its name from Googol, but they misspelled it.
@@ultimasdragon7840 Intentionally
This is fascinating. Thank you
I love how Kevin always completely confuses us right before ending the video
So lastpass is why you haven't forgotten your password, unlike vsauce 1 and 3
oh yeah yeah
explain
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
oof
Not if I quit before you tell me to quit, that's it I quit
Spongebob SquarePants I quit
lol what? never mind I quit
@@kazumades5283 i dont understand, oh well might as well quit
But what if you quit because someone tells you to quit since you dont quit now you'll have to quit later but since you are quitting in the moment based on anothers actions, is it really quitting?
Wow- my mind has been blown ! now I'll never have to worry about that part in my life. Thanks!
i did in fact go past this video to find the best video of the recommended and this seemed to be the most interesting
Actually no I opened up youtube and accidentally tapped on this video...
Edit: kinda glad I did though!
Caleb Flores same
auto play
I actually added this video in my watch later list and then came back to it :/
actually is youtube that suggest the video on the right side, and since i usually watch V sauce videos i just did it. i don't think there was any chances in play lol
Actually I open every video I want in a new tab and continue scrolling
This only works if you know the number of choices you have.
Toxic Kandy ofc is part of the equation
@@SDCGI you can also count them individually. Even if it's like a trillion or something that you have to count. It optimizes your probability if you use the equation.
If the numbers are randomly split in a group of googol and you take a sample group of a usuable amount of numbers, wouldn't that ensure that the theory still works and is therefor useable on any group size that is randonly distributed?
Like Kevin did with his group of ten.
@@enrique.guzman891 I think he meant when the number of choices is indeterminate, like dating. How many options would you have if you just kept dating?
@@Chizypuff You can apply it to time as well. Lets say you start dating at 18 and you'd want to be married by 35. Date, but don't marry anyone you meet before 24 yo (37% of the way) and than propose to the next person you date that's better than every person before that. But of course you need to assume things and set a limit, to be able to calculate the 37%.
Really enjoyed this video!!!
You see, I didn't scan through videos and found this one. It was on the top of my list so I watched it.
Thanks for uploading this, it is very similar to a strategy I read about for deciding which checkout to use in a supermarket to maximise your chance of being in the shortest queue. It said walk past 1/3 of the checkouts then join the next queue you come to that is shorter than any you have so far seen. I do actually use this strategy in real life and it does seem to work.
Couldn't you just see all of them at once?
@@weckar That depends on the layout of the store and the amount of people in line. If the isles are too close in relation to the check out line, you would most likely only be able to see 4-7 at a time. If there are 20 check out lines, due to the narrow path between the isles and the checkout line, you won't be able to get a large enough angle from your vantage point to see all of the lines at once. Your chances are basically doubled if you start towards the middle of the 20 lines because you can look to the left and right of yourself. This happens to me at most Walmarts or chain grocery stores in my city.
But if it's a smaller store, then you're definitely right.
Have a nice day, I hope that made sense. I have a brain injury so it might not have. 😅
I actually stop before 1/3 when the first ones are empty, this is slightly different from this problem, because you sometimes know, there can't be better option later.
it’s just like the way to pick the best toilet stall strategy.
Couldn't you just go back
False Kevin, I see vsauce, I click. I didn't scan lol
How did you see vsauce without scanning? In your case, the first video you saw was Vsauce. Or maybe you determined the most optimum video to watch was vsauce and therefore just chose the first Vsauce video you saw. In either case you still had to "scan" through the videos.
@@laserbean00001 Hey bud, take a joke
@@CatIsMad If that was a joke, it was a really poor attempt in my opinion.
obviously its a joke, he said lol
Haha mine was on auto play
"you scanned some options and picked me"
nah man i had autoplay on lol
I remember learning about online algorithms in CS classes. Never get the chance to use it in real world applications, but they sure are fun to think about.
Simple. Marry the first girl, who isn't bored by this video.
I'm applying for getting one those girls. 1 to go pls
E
The joke's on you, me and my girlfriend both weren't bored with this video; the two girls who weren't got together instead 😆
how can you get bored by this? lmao
@@puzzleduser lol the first comment was a year ago and this video is still being watched (epic)
*watches video, then pulls out notebook and figures out love life using e*
USERNAME NOT FOUND
*(0 ÷ e) - (Asexual + Unattractive + Antisocial) = 0*
:(
@@qtulhoo
as far as i know you just have to be as confident and selfish as you can possibly be and women will want you. am 23 and had only 3 so far so am not really an expert.
It will be Markiplier.
I don't need to scroll through every CZcams video, as soon as I see "Vsauce2" I know it's gonna be a good one. And I don't have to commit to just one, I can watch all of them.
"you played The Game Of Googol to watch this video"
*me who can watch infinite videos if I wanted:* "nah…"
"You played the Game of Googol to choose to watch this video about the Game of Googol."
*INCEPTION HORN INTENSIFIES*
I was in the middle of watching another video until a got the notification for Kevin’s video. Long story short, bye bye other video!
LOL Same, i was watching gmod videos xd
Whats the long story?
Sorry Mia Khalifa, next time.
Giving me a mental crisis here - e is such an amazing and helpful thing in calculations, yet it's the bane of my existence as a Medic main...
Shoving 100 numbers away to replace it with an “e” is probably the most meme-y thing ever
This won’t help me find the love of my life because 0 divided by e is still 0
Edit: 2 days after posting this comment someone I really like asked me out o_o
Feels bad man
What if you divide by zero?
No its still 1 you got hope buddy
That's the magic of e...never doubt it again.
why not Gp
\o/ praise 2.72
I like it how he’s like
“we won’t want to stop at 9 cause the chances are we would have passed over the highest number”
...and then it turns out to be 9 😂
Not seen an ad for Lastpass for a long time, already a user so instead I'll just say it's excellent. Been using it for a decade now
you are my new game teacher. and I am your new subscriber😁👍
Lord Farquaad chose Bachelorette number 3/3. Didnt work in his favor that time...
Of course, it all relates back to Shrek.
Is LastPass the reason you're the only one uploading regularly, and/or is this sponsorship a message to the other Vsauces?
The thing is he is using Chrome password manager in his demo the lastpass one looks entirely different
@@visaelites4694 Ok, I just thought he used it since he _said he's been using it since about a year ago._
Kabalan Zahouri I use LastPass and it looks like the one he had pulled up
@@phrax6767 That isn't lastpass, that's google.
The Prime Diam oh I see we are talking about different parts. Yes that’s google
Your intense eye contact is hilarious 😂
I actually scrolled through about 40 videos and went back to this one...
Awesome video! Really like how you used the Googol game to explain the quitting processes of the human brain.
I have a crippling among us addiction
E
ratio
Ok
R
I've seen people using this strategy in life, but no one ever said a good word about it
I actually know this, one of my teachers two years ago (still my favorite math teacher) went over a similar case using interviews for jobs.
okay, your mention that youtube is basically this game got me too well, good job
This is one of the best recent vsauce2 videos. I like it when he starts making connections outside of the math problem to the real world.
Person: "How was work?"
Kevin: "Today I said, 'Let's get oily' and then quit"
Kris R-K I’m crying lmao
lol
E
FBI! Open up!
ok
I was startled for a second when he said, "You're Johannes" and I was like, "How'd you know?" o.o 😂
There are 16 recommendations of videos on youtube below a particular video, and I have always unknowingly chosen the best out of first 5. Idk why??
Vsauce fingers here, where are your Michaels?
*where are michaels*
this and many more fun math in *Algorithms to live by*
Loved it!
it's insane how eulers seems to be so bloody useful!
So the basic idea is, look at 37% of the items, and pick the next item that beats all of the first 37%.
But then what if the biggest number happens to be in that first 37%? You just get whatever number is at the end in that case.
That's why the strategy only works 1/e of the time
Think about life choices. You will still have a great chance to make the top 10% of all choices. Life isn't always about being first or the best on every decision. But making close to the best will keep you on a forward moving path
Thats why u lose 1/3 times over there and have a 1/3 chance to get a number greater than the first 3rd and get less than the last 1/3rd adding up to 2/3rd losing rate
Pretty simple??
@@CellXD It seems like you'd have a 1/3 chance of it being the highest number selected SO FAR, but afar lesser chance of it being the highest number out of all of them.
Vsauce! Kevin’s here and today i gonna show you a very cool game!
-Kevin left the game.
It seems the only way to win... is not to play.
"this is a game you quit" that's every game you need to be more specific
E
Little axolotl
Great video!
your theory is not true.
Vsauce 2 is always the channel i'm gonna watch.
gotcha
I matched Tinderette 5... 10/10 works 37% of the time
Finally one o can say you're wrong about! I click every single one of your videos that pop up on my suggested automatically! It's as though its mandatory! Lol
I saw the intro and I think this is right up my ally
BY QUITTING!
Me:ties a noose
*_"That this is the CZcams video I am gonna watch, without realising you played the game of googol while watching a video about googol"_*
You got me there
xd Sanad “googoo”
Lol
@@parthinaxe lmao
"The key is e"
Markiplier: *Traumatic flashbacks*
Can someone explain that meme to me?
E
@@carealoo744 no one understands it, the only thing everyone understands is *e*
e
When you said that i clicked this vid before i saw many good vids on my recommended but i clicked yours cus its good
lmfao when u see em partial derivatives in a paper and you’re like
Umm.... FORGET ITT
I do this for things on sale. I'll pick a price after seeing it go on sale a couple times and if it ever goes under that price I buy it
I love these vids
You just summed up my study methods at 3:50.
This is like when you're trying to find loot in CoC. You're happy that you found 500k gold, but you never know if you'll get more if you skipped..
so you need to skip (the amount of players in coc)/e to find the best loot, assumung that everyone is active and at the same rank
Guys, keep your money safe, don't gamble with kevin......
U said that I chose you out of a few choices, I saw your video first and immediately clicked on it lol
Speechless
This is now one of my favorite Kevin videos
*"when do we start stopping?"*
smashes phone to the floor*
i dont even know why but this comment specifically killed me-
Smashes phone on floor in a confused scream after finding out that E is actually a number*
Michel:does a lot of Science
Kevin: do the paradox
THIS is the video i want to watch
I love how instead of an APA citation you literally just threw the paper off screen.
Another great video Kevin. I’d love to be able to apply the algorithm to my current house search but I’m not sure what number to divide e by to get my sample size. Any tips for optimal stopping theory with an unbounded set?
I’m terrible at math but I like the way you explain things in theory.
The title of the video: the game you quit
Me: you mean life?