204. Milei's Argentina with Philip Bagus
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- čas přidán 15. 01. 2024
- Against all odds, the new president of Argentina is an anarcho-capitalist who quotes Mises and Rothbard. Austrian economist Philip Bagus knows Milei well and joins us to discuss what his presidency will look like, if he can turn Argentina around, dollarization, and the IMF's continued role in the country.
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Saifedean’s first book, The Bitcoin Standard:
saifedean.com/thebitcoinstandard
Saifedean’s second book, The Fiat Standard:
saifedean.com/thefiatstandard
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Nice conversation. As an argentinian would like if you could engange in a conversation with someone of the Milei's goverment to explained the complexities, what they received and where they are and the situation overall. Maybe it could be the Canciller Diana Mondino.
Thanks for such a useful conversation, gentlemen!
05:35 🇦🇷 Philip Bagus describes Argentina's President Kier M as a true libertarian, an anarcho-capitalist influenced by Rothbard and Mises, despite entering politics.
11:28 📚 Kier M entered politics to fight the cultural war against statism and socialism, aiming to spread libertarian ideas to the masses.
13:15 🌎 Kier M's election in Argentina brought about a cultural change, making libertarian ideas more accepted and discussed in the public.
20:08 💼 Kier M faces challenges in reducing the size of the public sector, lacking a majority in Parliament; he issued decrees and pressures politicians to pass laws aligning with his libertarian views.
23:15 🔥 Kier Muses strategies like issuing decrees, putting pressure through the media, and threatening referendums to push his libertarian agenda in the face of opposition from peronists and various interest groups in Argentina.
25:08 🇦🇷 Argentine President Milei faces challenges in implementing his proposed reforms after winning the most votes in the presidential election.
26:30 📉 Argentina's historical struggles, including gradual reforms, currency devaluation, and economic challenges, raise skepticism about potential positive changes.
27:51 🏛 President Milei's coalition consists of various political ideologies, including liberals and peronists, aiming for real change and leveraging his election success.
32:07 💵 Dollarization is considered a positive step by Milei, aiming for free currency competition and preventing hyperinflation by securing an IMF dollar loan.
36:18 💼 Views on handling public debt diverge, with Bagus favoring repudiation for a hyperinflationary reset, while Milei leans towards securing an IMF loan to spread losses into the future.
42:31 🌐 Despite hyperinflation, there is a debate on resuscitating the Argentine peso or embracing its collapse to implement drastic reforms and reduce the public sector.
47:14 🌐 Milei faces challenges with IMF conditions, potentially limiting libertarian reforms, and concerns about social unrest, making the path to change complex and uncertain.
49:59 💸 The World Bank and IMF don't function like real banks; they don't face market pressures and can create money for free, making lending decisions political rather than economic.
51:31 🌐 The belief that countries can generate money without facing market pressure contributes to global economic issues and inflation, as incompetent governments continue to be bailed out.
53:43 💰 A balanced budget alone is not libertarian; the crucial aspect is the role of government in influencing the economy, not just the deficit or surplus.
55:43 🔄 There's concern that if Argentina follows IMF's game and doesn't succeed in economic reforms, it may lead to a decline in the peso and potential setbacks for the cause of freedom.
58:54 💵 Milei's commitment to dollarization is a key project, aiming to eliminate the peso, and if successful, it could outgrow the impact of IMF loans on Argentina's economy.
01:08:05 🌐 Concerns arise as Milei, despite libertarian inclinations, engages in international politics, meeting figures like Bill Clinton, raising questions about ideological consistency.
01:09:24 💸 Defaulting on foreign debt could damage Argentina's reputation as a reliable borrower, potentially leading to a collapse of the peso, hyperinflation, and dollarization of the economy.
01:12:48 💵 While defaulting on debt seems appealing in theory, within the Fiat system, borrowing is essential due to the constant devaluation of the currency; a fiscally responsible approach might be challenging.
01:13:02 🏦 Governments face challenges with holding dollars due to constant devaluation, leading to inflation; borrowing becomes a more viable option.
01:13:56 🪙 Bitcoin is proposed as a solution for governments to hold in their treasury, appreciating over time, avoiding devaluation, and reducing reliance on constant borrowing.
01:15:05 🌐 Shifting from holding dollars to Bitcoin can liberate nations from global debt dynamics, allowing them to maintain a positive balance without constant borrowing.
01:15:33 🥇 Gold and silver are discussed as hard money alternatives, but their lack of appreciation and practical challenges, like verifying authenticity, make Bitcoin more attractive.
01:17:36 🔍 Bitcoin's advantage lies in its ease of verification, low transaction costs, and quick global transfer, making it a preferable store of value compared to gold in the modern era.
01:19:54 📚 Philip Bagus mentions his new book, emphasizing the critique of fractional reserve banking and advocating for the Real Bills Doctrine, aligning with Austrian economic principles.
01:22:04 📈 Bagus discusses the emergence of an anarcho-capitalist president in Argentina, praising Milei for popularizing Mises and Rothbard's ideas and making them accessible to the public.
01:25:02 📖 Bagus mentions his upcoming book challenging the Real Bills Doctrine, arguing against deflation concerns and highlighting issues with credit expansion based on real bills.
01:26:25 🏦 Bagus critiques the notion that maturity mismatching is the root cause of business cycles, arguing that anticipation of short-term savings and rolling over loans can be dynamically efficient.
01:33:52 🤔 The discussion touches on Fete's critique of Mises, where the Real Bills Doctrine is presented as a solution, although concerns about legal issues and potential abuses arise.
01:36:38 🏦 Bagus discusses the concept of fiduciary media, explaining how it represents a bank account and can be considered a form of saving if not immediately consumed.
01:37:21 🔄 Real savings are crucial throughout the entire production process, emphasizing the need for savings even during the transportation phase, as consumer goods only become such when purchased.
01:38:15 🤔 Discussion on Juan Ramon Rallo, a communicator of libertarian and Austrian economic ideas in Spain, with Bagus mentioning his deviation on fractional reserve banking and the need for corrections.
01:39:25 🤝 Bagus expresses gratitude for Rallo's contributions to the libertarianmovement in Spain but highlights the necessity of correcting deviations, particularly regarding fractional reserve banking.
01:41:02 🚫 Bagus reaffirms his commitment to the destruction of fractional reserve banking, referencing his career and works such as "Money, Bank Credit, Economic Cycles" by Ludwig von Mises.
01:43:30 ₿ Bagus and the host discuss their stance on fractional reserve banking, emphasizing the historical collapses of such banks and expressing skepticism towards arguments in favor of it.
01:43:44 🏦 Reference to historical failures of fractional reserve banking, from ancient Rome and Greece to the Middle Ages, highlighting the consistent collapse of such systems.
01:45:04 💸 Critique of central banks and their role in sustaining fractional reserve banking, with a focus on the outsourcing of banking failures into the currency and the widespread societal impact.
Good take from Saif on 100% bank reserves. The issue is lack of free market (regulations, cartels), nothing else.
And when will you interview...the great...Professor Jesus Huerta De Soto ? It's about time.
Nice talk!
Regarding the question of Argentina refuse to pay its old debts, I believe the biggest problems would be that other countries could choose to sanction in different ways the country, cutting Argentina from most of Global trade or by making it pay more to be able to trade worldwide which would be basically the same or worse than just continue paying it.
So, I do not see it as an aswer and it would be worse for the libertarian name worldwide and for future libertarian leaders to be elected.
If Argentina wants to do something about it, it should do it internally, seize assets from the corrupt leader to repay the debt, it obviously would not be enough but it would help, send a message for the next ones that have the same ideas. Also the people also needs to take the burden of the resposabilidaty of their previous choices and if a generation has been roobbing another, then this should also be adresses internally by lowering the value of the highest pensions or something else similar.
Argentina will be far better than El Salvador for bitcoiners. Milei has the right framework for everything, not just for one issue thing: to let do.
Philip does a great job!
This wasn’t my favorite Saifedean interview. Props to his guest for being a good sport.
Excellent and fascinating. 'Money supply' is just a euphemism for corruption of the units of the monetary ledger that everyone spends their life's time, effort and energy working for. Everyone needs to understand this.
Also take Juan Ramon Rallo on a podcast! He can talk about bitcoin ;)
40:41 That was the official exchange rate, not the blue dollar rate. Milei is returning to a floating exchange rate.
Lets fuckin learn!!!!!!!
What happens if a government and the people refuse repaying IMF loans?
It is difficult even for this Austrian economist to rewire his brain from gold. Sometimes I just feel pity for them. I was a gold bug as well, but it didn't take me up to a year to rewire my mentality and know that gold is dead yellow rocks.
He is extremely stuck in his ways. He has complete brainfog towards Bitcoin.
i too don't believe in a political solution.
closely watching argentina and milei...
Please send Philip a copy og The Bitcoin Standard (preferably in German) so he can learn the basics...
He is extremely stuck in his ways. He has complete brainfog towards Bitcoin.
Milei is a libertarian except for the Palestinian struggle for freedom.
You're showing something make blanket statements about categories of people.🤔