The Kingambit 50/50
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- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- #pokemonshowdown #pokemon #competitivepokemon #kingambit
"Though it commands a massive army in battle, it’s not skilled at devising complex strategies. It just uses brute strength to keep pushing."
A video essay on the Sucker Punch 50/50, a situation where a player is forced to make a correct decision 8 times in a row, with the result being the win or loss of a battle. This videos style and tone was loosely inspired by the Magic the Gathering youtuber Rhystic studies, I highly recommend their channel: / @rhysticstudies
BBG's Article: www.smogon.com/forums/threads...
Replay Used at End: replay.pokemonshowdown.com/ge...
Also, clarification, when I said that I used high ladder replays for the video, that was mainly for looking at how 50/50's worked, the majority of replays in this video were from me battling myself.
Sources:
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/ blipexists - Hry
Missed chance to call it the kingambit gambit
Danggiiittttttt
"And that's why he is known as the king of gambits"
Kingambit Coinflip is catchy too
The King Gambit
how about the king(gambit**2).... gambitsquare
the sucker punch shuffle
The Sucker God Trial
the kingambling
substitute great tusk is the real mid ground 🗣🗣🗣🗣🗣🗣🗣🗣
For my own sanity, I refuse to believe Sub-Tusk is real
It's better than a mid ground, it takes the 50/50 chain into your favor. If the gambit uses sucker punch once on the sub, you have a free CC.
Your sanity shall be destroyed@@blip_exists
I'll do you one more: forego Great Tusk for Salazzle, use Toxic on Kingambit then we're back to square one but now your opponent is on a timer~
@@Peusterokos1kingambit only needs 6 turns to sweep your team and toxic lasts 7 turns
90% of gamblers quit before they win.
If you let infinite players play random moves infinite amount of times, one of them will eventually correctly predict and beat kingambit.
You could be the one to solve Schrodinger's Kingambit.
SV OU is Kingambit's world and we're just living in it
this video is the best evidence for a kingambit suspect test ive ever seen
A Kingambit suspect is interesting, as Kingambit is one of the best examples of "broken checks broken" in the tier. Being able to stop both Dragapult and particualrly Gholdengo is very useful, and its very easy to stop Kingambit 50/50's with an encore Pokemon, or sets like Bulk Up Great Tusk. Mind you, its still very powerful, but as of now, I'd probably say its a healthy presence in the tier?
@@blip_exists a majority of the recent bans have been either to protect gholdengo or kingambit
The thing is that neither goldengo nor dragapult have the ability to sweep your entire team. In fact the value of neither of them is being particularly good sweepers, but rather having their inherent strengths supported by good enough offenses.
Kingambit doesn't prevent Goldengo from having perfect control over hazards in the game. It wins the 1v1 easily, but Goldengo isn't good because of its ability to be unbeatable 1v1.
Similarly, Kingambit doesn't prevent dragapult to threaten a revenge kill on any non priority move in the game. It can still come in, but the Dragapult's role of stopping the sweep and getting free progress is already filled.
Kingambit is just much more broken than what it's supposed to check, and even then if it going suddenly makes Goldengo broken, both Pokémon could still end up banned. But more realistically with the number of potentially viable Pokémon in OU in gen 9, Kingambit will more likely be imediatly replaced by 3 or 4 alternatives to check the two ghosts.
To be honest your comment reminds me of the anti Latios ban crowd of gen 5 OU. Latios there is a clearly overpowered Pokémon, being the most omnipresent offensive Pokémon and having no reliable answer in the game. Yet people use the same "but it keeps so many broken stuff suck as keldeo in check". The thing is, Latias can do the exact same job as Latios, clearly does it better, and it's way less problematic in the tier. But because people can't imagine bwou without latios, they don't ban it. Kingambit is the same thing, it's too iconic at this point and we already missed the chance of banning it early enough so his problematic presence doesn't have the time to take roots.
I’m not a good player but I’ve won games off of a single kingambit prediction, it’s literally a fucking Warhawk missile when your opponent only has a bow and arrow
"You have to make eight correct decisions, while the King only has to make one. "
Cold line
i think a lot of people often view kingambit's sucker punch as a very polar situation when in reality, the odds are immensely skewed toward the kingambit user. if you are forced into the situation where you have to predict around sucker punch and don't have safety nets like encore, wisp, or substitute, the odds of actually beating kingambit with all 8 of its pp are around 0.3% if you go off of random chance alone. as such you really can just... keep clicking it. over and over again. maybe take 10-20 seconds in between each click to inflict psychological damage, and then go for broke.
overall, very well done video with fun writing and excellent editing, and elite taste in music too! i look forward to seeing more of your content in the future
The psychologic damage is just the cherry on top of all of this lol
0.3% is wrong, kingambit will click kowtow cleave somewhere between turn 1 and turn 9 at random, leaving you with a 1/9 chance to call out the turn correctly (looking at it from turn 1), or 11.111...%
@@qedsoku849 shouldnt we be looking at this like a bunch of diffrent events
1/2^8
@@qedsoku849(1/2)^8 is around how i got that %, which is what you would have if you, as the defender, had to predict what the kingambit did across 8 sequential turns. your calculation is correct if the kingambit user is also participating in the 50/50, but like i said they don’t really have to (unless the opponent has encore or sub) because losing one out of eight 50/50s is not very consequential. just inflict psychic damage and you’ll win most of the time
@@spookysquirtle No, because they aren't, whether the next event happens depends on the results of the previous one. Also each turn isn't a 50/50, if both players actually chose 50/50 each turn, the tusk would win 25% of the time on turn 1, the kingambit shouldn't allow that, so they (optimally) won't click kowtow 50% of the time turn 1 (but they should if they get to turn 8), the kingambit is incentivized to sucker punch more often and the tusk should stealth rock more often to match that. If looking each turn the tusk chooses 1/9 times to cc turn 1, then if they didn't 1/8 to cc turn 2, then 1/7, turn 3 (which results in them choosing any of the 9 turns evenly, the equivalent of choosing a random turn at the start) the tusk will win 1/9 times regardless of the kingambit's strategy. If at least 1 player does their attack evenly distributed across the 9 turns, it doesn't matter what strategy the other player does, but if they do a different strategy, they open themselves up to a strategy that counters theirs.
Gen 9 Kingambit’s Sucker Punch and Gen 6 Aegislash’s King’s Shield 50/50’s were so terrifying that now I mainly play hyper offense teams that have Priority like Extreme Speed, Ice Shard, Water Shuriken, Shadow Sneak, Grassy Glide, and Aqua Jet Punch 😂
My advice: go back to Gen 3 OU. It's unironically one of the best tiers.
*dies of peak cinema*
jokes aside this is genuinely your best video yet and (as always) I can't wait to see what you make next!
Now eviolite bisharp is actually a beast never thought id see the day
Eviolite steelix when diamonix appears
The video was incredibly well done your use of storytelling and graphics were fantastic, and great editing pulled it all together really well.
This is the whole reason I have keldeo on 90% of teams
Hey cool to see u reference my thread! Awesome video. In the scenario you described at the end with the great tusk, the best (unexploitable) strategy for kingambit is still the one in the thread, specifically choosing whether to use a non-sucker attack each turn with probability 1/(1+remaining pp). Procrastinated everything for a day to work on that post and it’s all flooding back to me.
Thank you for writing the post!! It was a big part of what inspired this video!
I think "choosing a random number (between 1 and 1+ the remaining pp) on turn 1, and doing the attack on the chosen turn" is a more intuitive way of phrasing that strategy, and can be put into practice very easily with a random number generator.
@@qedsoku849 this is technically suboptimal though. As the kingambit player, it’s best to attack on turn 1 less often than you attack on turn 2 and so on. But you can sample *that* distribution before clicking any buttons like you’re suggesting.
@@BBG07endless I think you misunderstand, choosing a random number 1-9 and choosing to kowtow the chosen turn has an identical distribution to your strategy, which does not cause you to attack on turn 1 less often than on turn 2 etc.
@@BBG07endless For an intuitive explanation, the kingambit must kowtow once within 9 turns, and the tusk must guess which turn that is in order to win, otherwise they lose. If at least 1 player chooses a number of turns randomly, there's a 1/9 for the tusk to win, regardless of the other player's strategy.
The year is 2025. Zamazenta, Great Tusk, Iron Valiant, Skarmory and Probopass have been deemed too powerful for OU and now reside in Ubers. Indeedee is currently being suspected, as the presence of Psychic Surge has been deemed too unhealthy for the current metagame. Farigiraf has risen to OU as a potential Kingambit counter, often running Substitute to scout for Terastallization. It remains to be seen how the metagame is going to evolve from now on.
Staraptor rises to UUBL again
Blessed by the recommended. This was an incredible analysis, bro. It always feels awkward to go against for reasons that make you as the opponent sweat. It's something we intuitively know but never think about. I love seeing all laud out like this
Personal opinion - your introduction to the video was godlike. Real chills.
The bit after that was a bit repetitive. I feel like it could be skimmed down to make it deliver cleaner, more concisely, with more impact.
Thanks for the feedback! I agree, looking back on it, the Raging Bolt segment in particular can be a little off focus, I'll see what I can to not have this happen again in future videos!
some might say, the kingambit gambit. some might even say, the king's gambit. dare i say, the kingambit's king gambit
When I was laddering with a rain team, I frequently had an endgame of ogerpon well and gambit. 4 swords dances then attack almost always won
Lillisui in sun has a similar result. The Gambit hivemind dictates that people always click Kowtow after the 4th swords dance.
i like the idea that the people who designed kingambit knew this and embraced it as a weird psuedo-ability for the KING pokemon but i bet they just huff glue in their cubicles and put up whatever ideas the stapler they hallucinated told them to
opponent wracking his brain on predictions & i'm just over here smashing sucker. 95% of the time they fold
As a mono steel enjoyer this is literally me
this is why you run Bulk Up Tusk instead! love niche videos like these, great job (:
Amazing editing and pacing, this is an awesome video! Would love to see more videos on small interactions like this, they're fun to explore
"You have to make eight correct predictions, the King only has to make one"
Absolute peak
Once I made a (mid) Snow Team to use discount Kyurem Black (Baxcaliber) back when it was legal.
It had a Chandelure which had to win the 50/50 just once to immediately demolish the Kingambit, but here’s the catch: the 50/50 had to roll towards Sucker Punch. If the Gambit Sucker Punches, it’s won the 50/50, because it literally just tricks its Specs onto the Kingambit removing the 50/50 entirely, then I sacrifice something to test the next 50/50: if it’s Sucker again, I stall the move out until it’s out, then bring Chandelure back in for the KO, if it’s Kowtow Cleave, I let the sacrifice go down and switch back into Chandelure for the KO.
Incredibly well made video!
The topic and content aside which is genuinely intriguing and informative, the presentation is absolutely incredible.
This is the first video of your channel I am watching. CZcams was on my second screen and I suddenly got vietnam flashbacks from the kid icarus uprising music you used. I loved that game as a kid and got far over 500h in it - thank you for bringing that memories back up haha. Liked and subed
Kid Icarus is amazing, and the sound track is soooo good
Man, Nintendo is just SO GOOD AT GAME DESIGN. Game Freak are truly masters of their craft. I mean, it takes real skill to design battles like this. Don't you just love when battles are more RNG-reliant than anything else?
Awesome video. Hope it does the rounds on CZcams it deserves
This is one of the goatest singles vids i’ve ever watched
Beautiful stuff, great work
If I’m using kingambit, I usually go for kowtow cleave turn 1 just because people are so scared of sucker punch. This has never failed me (except in lower ladder). Also great video glad I found you!
this is so awesome
Amazing video production
1:40 Hitting me with that Ori and the Blinc Forest music was nice.
Just a bit off, its Hollow Knight music there
That's right! My bad, thanks for clarifying. Soooo good sounstrack @blip_exists
@@opposumness3107 Thanks!
I don't say this often but, this video is absolute perfection. Info, drama and great background music
Beautiful vid bro
Ya know, I remember the good ol' days of X and Y, where this exact kind of 50/50 mindgame was what got Aegislash banned. Very different situation for a very different pokemon, admittedly, but I feel like that core principle of a sort of rock-paper-scissors style decision being inherently unbalanced and un-fun applies here too.
great narration
A poketuber is leveling up, we are all so proud.
such a good video good editing and good script
Kingambit is a pokémon i use because i liked bisharp, i didnt know it was the gambler’s choice, i knew there was something else i liked about it
Great vid.
All sh¡ts and giggles till you run into a Kingambit holding a Leppa Berry...
This vid is fire
glad someoen made a video about this because people calling sucker wars a 50/50 has killed me for years
Exhilarating sure as hell isn't the way I'd put it.
To each their own I guess
This was peak cinema
This is truly, a king's gambit
absolute cinema
Banger video
Yep this gets me, I had a Infernape and had mach punch but thought the opponent was going to switch out. So I got taken out. I sometimes force the Gambit in early
I don't get how anyone in the great tusks shoes could possibly be experiencing anything "exhilarating" when they lose the game off a 50/50 after getting to a 5-1. If i outplayed my opponent that hard and lost to a coinflip I'd be over, never even glancing at singles for the rest of eternity.
Honestly, this makes it all the more ironic that Grimsley’s ace was a Bisharp. The way you described how it feels to be in the 50/50 really does sound like gambling which is a bit scary and concerning.
Great video as always!
Ooooh I forgot about Grimsley! Kinda sad, he would've fit the tone so well
That was an amazing intro omg
When *they* do a massive delay its fine, but when *I* do a massive delay I'm staggered by a toothpick.
Are you telling me that Kingambit is subject to Steiner Math? ("Usually you have a 50/50 chance of winning, but Im a freak of nature...")
I actually did a lot of math about this, that also looks at a 2v1 scenario, and it’s frightening how often kingambit can win against opposing teams with optimal sucker punch randomness
Cool editing bro
Need more smaller poketubers posting niche but beautifully crafted videos in my life
This truly was our OU
I love so much the feeling of the 50/50 gambit that i made a AG team with 5 pawniards to get stealth rock and paralizes to get the battlefield ready to gambit enter the battle to fall with honor saying gg on the chat or show why betwen all the 1025 mons there just one king anyway cool video your edition is preaty good
This guy is the reason I got a Iron Valiant on my team, if the opponent already Tera's it's a mop
Yeah, Iron Valiant is one of the best counters to Kingambit, with something like Great Tusk it nearly always wins
@@blip_exists And for Great Tusk I got a Tera Grass Ceruledge with solar blade supported by a Heat Rock Torkoal
bisharps when u tell them to sit down
You see, this is the moment you bring dondozo becausr you actually are running stall
And then Kingambit turns out to be Tera Dark Black Glasses and 2hkos Dozo
@@blip_exists Curse. Becomes a 3HKO. Rest. Sleep talk. Get lucky. You have won
My dondozo also has tera fighting
@@Snt1_ Fair enough I guess, just gotta hope you preserve tera
@@blip_exists I took the time to do some calcs. Adamant, 5 allies fallen, Kowtow Cleave black glasses tera dark Kingambit vs an impish dondozo is a nearly guaranteed 2HKO. To bring in dondozo, you either had to switch him in or sacrifice a teammate. Now, assuming its 5 allies fallen, you can easily sac a pokemon. You can also switch on either a SD or SP. Now for the fun part. If you have a full, or nearly full HP Dondozo, you can click curse and raise your Def. With a raised defense stat, you can take another Kowtow cleave. In a rest talk set (the main stall set) you can rest and recover back to full HP. Since dondozo is slow af, especially after a curse, you dont have to worry about SP mindgames, Gambit is usually faster. After using rest, you get 2 turns of sleep talk before waking up. If you get curse in one of them, its over for Gambit. On the third turn, assuming you manage to survive, you can rest until tge conditions are just right for a victory
The classing Kingamba sesh
"Here we stand we meet eye to eye with swords close to our necks who moves with what our life is in our hands"
Fitting hollow knight music. Big bad bug and multi-facetted strategies
The Pokemon held on with focus sash
Kingambit is one of those pokemon designs that just hits it out of the park for me. A much needed continuation on the design of another evo line, cool ability, and a gameplay style that really heavily rewards good prediction and understanding of the weirdo traits of the game despite being not a finicky mon to use.
Edit: Showing a prankster mon as an example of an encore mon beating a dark type >:(
Prankster + Trick + Choice Item.
thats what we call the Win-gambit
If your Pokémon is pressure, your odds are significantly improved of winning the 50/50 gauntlet
Am I the only one who is questioning whether or not Kingambit is actually unhealthy for SV OU?
The issue with Kingambit, is that it checks a lot of other broken stuff, which makes it very important for the tier, even if it in itself is broken.
The protect gambit goes crazy
I just beat last mon kingambit with my last mon ceruledge in a random battles comeback and then saw this video and had to click. I clicked bitter blade instead of swords dance when my opponent had 2 sucker punch PP left and got the call right. When you do win all the 50/50s and defeat the King, it's so exhilarating.
nah we got fuckin quantum suicide being drawn onto showdown breakdowns
I didn't hear Kid Icarus OST for quite some time.
Bulk Up Tusk exists
Even with Bulk Up Tusk, it still can lose to Gambit, its just much more in Great Tusk's favour
Kingambit more like kingambling
The only true 50/50 is whenever Kingambit has to fight a priority move that 2HKOs it and a regular move that OHKOs it.
It's so thematically appropriate for Kinggambit to have 50/50s, literally a gambit for your opponent.
Y’all, I found a (maybe) good counter to Kingambit. And the answer is Scrafty.
Scrafty 4x resists Dark, has high Def, and can use Rest and Drain Punch to recover health. Even if the King has the 50% Supreme Overlord boost, Sucker Punch deals like 12%.
Tsareena also has potential, as Queenly Majesty blocks priority moves. If it gets in safely, the King will be outsped and OHKO’d by Low Kick.
Issue with Scrafty is +2 252+ Atk Supreme Overlord 5 allies fainted Kingambit Iron Head vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Scrafty: 318-375 (95.2 - 112.2%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO. Add in tera, and Kingambits is now setting up on Scrafty, though even without tera Scrafty still struggles. Tsareena is a better option, if you force a Tera with something else, it can win, but if the Gambit player still has Tera, they can win.
Great vid! Can u link the bbg post?
Oops, forgot to add that! Should be in the description!
or what i liked to call it, the Kings Gambit
LETS GO GAMBLING
I FUCKING LOVE GAMBLING
I wonder if something like King's Shield or other protect variants could be used in these matchups?
This is why we play doubles
Nice
Schrödinger’s Gambit
It baffles me how the king is still not banned
I mean, despite being very powerful its also stopping a lot of broken stuff. Its a situation of "broken checks broken" and Kingambit is one of the major pokemon that checks other broken pokemon, think Dragapult, Gholdengo, etc. Thats not to say it should or shouldn't be banned, but it has a reason for either
I only play random battles (1600 elo) and this has both won me and lost me so many games. I hate it
With the fangame I’m making, it doesn’t have Tera, but Kingambit gets Pursuit and Knock Off back.
0_0 Uh oh
@@blip_exists I would perhaps create a Pokémon capable of countering Kingambit. Perhaps a Ground/Psychic-type that’s a special attacker whose Sp. Atk and Speed lets it go before and comfortably one-shot Kingambit with Earth Power, and it has Psychic Surge so Kingambit cannot Sucker Punch it.
I notice that the average amount of sucker punches that a kinggambit will go for is 5 lol, then they switch it up
I always click all 8 and got outplayed like 2 times
Finally, a style of video I've been wanting to see about Kingambit ever since it came out. As a more casual player, I feel like more than anything that this video is meant to highlight how "living on the edge" life is for Kingambit, and that's the exact potential I saw in it that made it my fav pokemon of Gen 9.
I put a chople berry on my kingambit and spec it to survive a close combat from great tusk. This means I always win no matter what move I choose.
Bro loaded the coinflip
The kingambit has an 88.888...% chance of winning the sucker punch game, since the opponent has a 1/9 chance to guess the kowtow turn correctly.
Kingambit is the ultimate anime protagonist. When everyone else has been defeated, he gains plot armor and is able to defeat the opponent
While I havent played much this gen I am glad that kingambit is carrying on the bisharp 50/50 from past gens.
i love kingambling