Is Higher Rake Killing Online Poker?
Vložit
- čas přidán 30. 06. 2024
- Check out Winning the Game of Life on Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast...
Patrick Howard is a data-driven poker strategist renowned for his evidence-based approach and exceptional results. With a bachelor's degree in physics and a brief stint in biophysics research at New York University, Patrick transitioned to poker full-time in 2019.
As an online cash game player, Patrick swiftly climbed from 200nl to 2000nl in just six months. His expertise led him to lead the cash game division at Poker Detox Coaching For Profits, where he helped the team generate over $5M in profits over three years.
In 2022, Patrick founded Mobius Cash, an elite community for high-stakes players. Here, he focuses on analyzing solver databases to develop simplified game theory optimal strategies, empowering players to excel in the competitive world of poker.
Here is what you can expect to hear on this week's show:
0:00 Introduction
1:19 Concern Over The Path for New Poker Players
3:35 Average Win Rates Online
7:03 Why Charge So Much Rake?
9:59 A Non-Sustainable Direction for Online Poker
12:46 A Lack of Transparency in Calculating Rake-Back
14:22 Is the Poker Boom Over - No More Reg Battling
20:18 The Landscape of Online Poker
24:39 The Bot Problem in Online Poker
29:28 Rooting Out Cheaters
3:17 Mass Data Analysis
52:28 High Stakes Poker is Safer
Follow Patrick Howard:
X (formerly Twitter): @mobiuspoker
Instagram @mobius_poker
CZcams: @MobiusPoker
Website: www.mobiuspoker.com/
Link Tree: linktr.ee/mobiuspoker
Follow "Jungleman" Dan Cates on social:
Instagram: @wtgolpodcast
@thedancates
Twitter: @junglemandan
Join Poker Academy today using this link: www.preflop.academy/?via=dan
Poker strategy tips
Poker tournament highlights
Poker player profiles
Poker player rankings
Poker coaching
Poker mental game
High Stakes Poker - Krátké a kreslené filmy
An important take of this video is that more rake is not protecting the recreational player it's actually hurting them because regs will hunt them even more relentlessly to maintain a profit until the rakes are so high that even most regs can't beat the game that the whole poker room eventually turns into a casino.
Thats exactly what gg wants. A casino is hugely profitable.
yea, most casino games are -EV, yet people still play. Do poker sites need pros to maintain a healthy poker ecosystem?
@@geofflif rake is based on hands played, then yes, you probably want a lot of 84 tabling eastern European grinders.
I posted this video in the ignition casino forum and a moderator deleted it. Obviously, Ignition do not care about the problem.
surprising, sounds like corruption
Played online poker from 2005 until 2016 when Amaya bought Pokerstars and ballooned rakes.
It became way to expensive to play even midstakes for profit.
Nowadays I play live MTTs sometimes and that's it. You have to put too many hours of studying poker to be a winning player online, and for what ? It's zero fun.
Idk why big companies wouldn't lower the rake, they'll still have profits counted in millions of dollars
signs of a dying industry. Number of players is falling -> revenue falls -> increase rake to juice revenue numbers
no way a podcast with the one and only morbius poker
As someone playing Mid Stakes, a lot on GG with a goal to try to reach Higher Stakes, I do echo Patrick's sentiments - The environment does not allow Reg battling, it reaches a stage where you have to table select incredibly well just to have a small, but liveable WR. It isn't very motivating to play, of course other websites exist where it is more viable but especially on NL500/1000 maybe even NL2000 (Not familiar with NL2000) Reg battling just doesn't seem profitable which is kind of insane when you think about it.
I would say switching to MTTs is probably the best direction to go for a decent Mid Stakes Cash game player to ge to higher stakes the fastest, it is still possible of course but you got to work very hard and be consistent.
Really interesting that you say that bots are raising people out of multiway pots.
I ran into that a couple times, once i was out of the pot, they just checked down whatever trash hands they had.
Another thing would be the very strange amount of disconnects when i have the nuts.
I have gotten disconnected like 30+ times on the river when V goes all in and I would have won a stack there.
I have only gotten disconnected 10ish times when V had a better hand than me.
I started keeping track of those things in my notebook.
Any thoughts on the state of the game on Global poker?
If the skill floor gets high enough, then the edges will be too small to deal with at 5% rake.
I know Kruzer and Carroters only make like 2 or 3 bb/100 on stars 100z, and they are quite good players.
I only get at best 1bb/100 at 25z, which i don't expect much I just started playing.
What is stopping someone from making a lower rake platform? i dont get it. 2% must surely generate enough to turn a healthy profit
one word, greed. enough isnt enough anymore.
a busniess is a business. you are not putting in all the work for charity. i wish there was a platform like this, but without much marketing what good is it if no fish are in the pool
@@BlazedBeat indeed, but if you lower your rake by 20% and see an increase in player base to cover the lost rake then this is of benefit to the business. even if you take a small loss, the increased market share will have inherent value too.
@@ZaneSnA because they have to pay a good security team also wich most of the sites are failing at. We are may just witnessing the final days of online poker as we know it.
general public doesnt care about rake, WSEX had 0% rake for a long time and barely had any players
I wish Ignition would do more. Seems to be 2~ bots per table across most stakes on Ignition at any time of day and there's no end in sight.
There is no successful GTO bot EVER , let that sink in
@@tonyrizzo4815that is why the bots play extremely simple exploit strategies.
Most of the bots are red line crushing.
Maybe this is a stupid question but why is rakeback even a thing? Why not just not charge obscenely high rake to begin with?
Because every hand u play
U Will lose 5% If u looser or fold ,and 10% of u Win kkkk
Bê ayse when u Win a hand u put literally half of the money só the rake of 5% turn in 10 effective
that so true, is disguisting, for example im 1,5bb/winner at 50/100, is like they are taking 80% of the profit i could make, poker is not roullete, poker is not a slot machine, why we cannot dream with a 0rakeback room, like chess players have ?
Or let say a reasonable rake 1-2bb/100 max, online poker rooms are constantly cheating poker players, and all their rakeback deals are a sham, complex enough that nobody can really understand them...
Perhaps we, the poker players who truly care about this mental game, could join forces and create together a cryptocurrency-based room, not geofenced in any way, or something similar...
Online poker has been around in the industry for many years, how come no one has thought of another business model that focuses on the fact that this is a human versus human mental sport? Why should the room always take the lion's share? I reiterate, if they do, it should be minimal...
@@modeob88 crypto rooms already failed sir.
It aligns incentives of players and the casino. More rake = more rake back = more money for the casino
Banned bots keep coming back under new accounts, I think (?)
need new idendity idk, like pokerstars you can only create one acc with your ID card...
@@Humanprototype-wh8qr Easy to do through others.
WHO CARES ABOUT BOTS
@@tonyrizzo4815
😂
4:20 i sure hope that doesn't mean he is factoring in the fake winning player recs. so many net depositors that play good stats nowadays.
huh?
To beat online poker nowadays you need to be a GTO+MDA player. And thats really hard to do, specially if you don't want join a stable and share profits. Few people are interested in spending so much time on poker, that's why online poker might die.
WRONG
@@tonyrizzo4815 You play micros bro, thats why your tricks still work.
How about a site that actually displays the actual rake on the screen in real time. I know it’s easy to calculate after the fact but I think sites don’t offer what I am suggesting because it is so egregious.
pokerstars used to offer this if you hovered your mouse over the pot.
If the rake is too HIGH it's actually better. -DNegs- and I love Dnegs
bots are hardprogrammed and clearly use some MDA to their coding. that is by defintion exploitable, but the amount of work you have to put in to find these leaks out almosto no one is willing to do
I won over 15bb/100 in 2023 haha....my circumstances are a bit particular tho
Sample: ten hands? Or 15bb
At nl2 ?
I thought more rake is better? Also online poker there is a guarantee you will get cheated
Yep that's why I play online for dimes and quarters.
It's not a guarantee, it's a possibility
The “spending rake money on marketing to get more recs “ argument is utter bullshit.clearly it’s not working as players are losing money and not enough recs are playing! Most likely GG is just greedy and taking too much out of the ecosystem
Bots are no problem to beat
if the avg win rate is so low then there should be a lot of upside for the truly committed, no?
Wouldnt really commited still benefit more from lower rake?
everyone would 😭
Am I the only one having difficulty to understand what Dan is saying? He is mumbling words like chewing them.
for suspected bot accounts, sites could require a randomized captcha. Humans will have no problem, but this is hard for a bot.
Up
The novelty of Poker is wearing off. The old buzzwors such as "if you work hard enough you'll make it" do not neccessary apply. The best human resource will move to other industries where they can make more money more easily. If you can earn more doing some cripto/AI shit people simply won't put 300 hours into mastering poker. Other than that, the "endless stream of recreational players" is another myth. It's much easier for people to lose against machines such as slots than to grinders. Ego will play against endlessly loosing to people.
If Warcraft and I don't know what MMO games, if Netflix can put their servers up for 120 usd a year, surely we can get a subscription poker going. Like you pay 120 usd a year and that's it, no rake.
Sounds like you both are jumping through a lot of hoops to not say online poker is dying
This guy posted hand history of 3rd party software saying its Ignition , sure thing bud - post live video of Ignition software itself or zip it ....Poker is complex game with a never ending game tree , GTO and RTA isn't going to magically make you a winner ...If you use GTO and RTA inputs all the time , you'll lose ....you win by exploiting other players mistakes not bots , gto , rta or whatever ....do you think Negreanu , Hellmuth or Ivey use GTO charts and RTA lol ? they don't! which is why they are amongst the best in the world ... sour grapes of online pros because the amateurs are catching up
I played over 600k hands in the last 4 months and just withdrew my entire account from GG because I saw way too many things I just couldn't see being mathematically possible
Most bots are beatable
not the point though is it
Not when there are 4 on a table colluding. All the sites need to do is add a captcha every hour or so.
@@TheFailedmessiahfr
@@TheFailedmessiah great solution, bot rings definitely couldnt pay someone in bangladesh $2 an hour to solve captchas
I don’t trust online poker. I won’t play it.
Smart man
jungleman is a shill for GG, scared to say anything bad about the awful things they've done to online poker. Another "more rake is better" soul-less sellout delete my comment and prove me right.
He was talking for 1h and he said nothing. What a waste of time.
'Promo SM' 🎉
Rake.kill the game every hand took 5%
If ppl dont rechaege the money in the table vanisg and the house get all kkkk
Online cash game is limited. It only allows 100bb buy in there's no much edges being found and then the rakes just slowly eating up the players if the edges are not found. 5 years ago i made some money playing pppoker 500bb buy in nowadays its just tougher landscape. But live poker is still beatable because of humane element
GG Poker has 200bb deep ante tables (full ring). You are only limited to 9 tables max but with good table selection and strictly playing weekends is still highly profitable