What the End of Japan’s Negative Interest Rates Means
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- čas přidán 26. 03. 2024
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Japan’s central bank raised interest rates last week for the first time in seventeen years, ending the world’s only remaining negative interest rate regime. The Bank of Japan also abandoned its yield curve control policy which has been in place since 2016, which saw it buying Japanese government bonds to keep longer term interest rates from rising. It has however maintained bond buying at the same pace for now.
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Wow, what a throwback. I remember ditching IE7 for Opera in the early 2000's. This project has been almost as long running as Mozilla or Chrome.
You forgot to mention how it directly communicates with the CCP.
lol no
I use opera for bigger and smaller screens. It has been around since the Nokia days and has remained as popular as or behind Mozilla's.
Slick ad, impressed.
Nice to see Patrick going into work for a change instead of wasting all his time at home, working on his mixtape.
He's just using the computer lab to play DOTA.
@@user-rt5dl2dm3e Patrick clearly plays Eve online due to its economic implications
😂
Or working out at the gym in his suit!
lol
Job hunter in Japan here. Looking at the starting salaries can give you a good picture of Japan's slow growth. Most wages for large corporations today sit around 2,400,000~2,700,000 JPY a year without taxes deducted. A lot of jobs IN TOKYO only pay around 2,200,000 JPY or 14,535 USD a year without tax deducted. Even AFTER you adjust for PPP, that's only around 22,000~27,000 USD a year for top Japanese companies. Meanwhile, the shit you have to deal with to even get a job makes Japanese companies genuinely one of the least attractive employers out there. No wonder consumption isn't rising. There is NO WAY consumption will rise UNLESS more money is moved away from the hoarding old ruling class and put into salary increases and better jobs for the spending younger generation.
That's crazy low 😮
Like so low that east-europe might be beating japan at several standards of living parameters.
Insane working culture for that little return.
@@normieloser6969 Yeah, so it's always rich when older people blame the younger generation for not getting married. Japanese grads are worked the hardest and paid the least in the G7.
Japan needs unions 🌚
I worked with engineers from Japan on international projects across SEAsia and Europe. I learned that most international corporations in Japan have a 2 sided system: a domestic side and an international side. The former deals with projects in Japan (and their old, somewhat archaic way of doing business) while the latter reaches overseas to get involved in projects (which may or may not be partially funded by investment from Japan). Fifteen years ago, it was unthinkable for an employee in the international side to settle elsewhere outside of Japan. They were expected to leave their family in Japan for 6-8 months (or more) each year in order to work in the overseas branch office of their corporation. Nowadays, 1/5 to 1/3 of these foreign department employees choose to settle in the country of their assignment. According to them, the pay is better, COL is less, and they find better ways to grow their wealth via more lucrative investment options.
As a dude working for a Japanese company in Thailand for a decade you're also forgetting one key thing.... They can get up to heaps of fun with the local women on their Japanese salaries with their wives back home.
Interesting
what's a COL?
@@AMabud-lv7hy cost of living
@@LoganInThailand And while it's not "accepted" it's much less of a scandal. Japanese views on sex are much less emotional IMO they tend to see it as just another urge humans have like hunger or sleepiness
Keeping up to date with a foreign economy by a professor while pooping, what a time to be alive
Amen
Pat in every video: 😳
😭😭😭
---- ----
👁️ 👁️
👄
yea and he never blinks... amazing
@@stefanschacht3322 Snowflakes keep falling on his expired debit card
@@deecee2174 im outa here...
Most people: well curated bookshelf and art
Patrick: Abandoned trading floor 0:01 and sterile surgical theater observation deck 4:06
Wonder what his pr0n collection looks like
Surely just a lecture theatre in King’s.
Lmfao he's something I else like isn't he, I actually love him, he seems like a really genuine guy compared to most of the other people doing videos like these ❤️
CNBC and Bloomberg may report on it quicker, but it's worth waiting for an informed perspective that respects your intellect from Patrick Boyle, whereas the big news stations will invite random investment bankers to start giving their policy prescriptions for a country and other nonsense like that
Patrick's eye watering ability to go for fifteen minutes without blinking..
😂😂😂
Truth. Remarkable.
Got that bullet-proof coffee, nicotine, and adderall stare. Classic wallstreet Combo
👀
😂
The real issues are Japan's aging population and the near zero productivity growth (stagnant for 20 years) for a long time. The combination of these is a real killer in terms of being able to finance their debt (with a positive interest rate) and support their increasing ratio of elderly population.
There hasn't been near 0 productivity growth
People get stuck on GDP because of the shrinking population. But labour productivity has still grown, it's just not enough to counter the shrinking population
Abortion played a part
@@bball767 No, I specifically meant Productivity, which is GDP per person-hour of work. It looks like I can't post links here but Google "Japan productivity by year" and check out the graphs. Per hour GDP output hasn't increased in over 20 years. Not to mention that Japan has had the lowest productivity in the G7 since at least the 70s (basically as far back as reliable statistics go). Given their massive public debt, this is a major issue for Japan. As the saying goes: "Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run, it’s almost everything".
@@123pboverpopulation and insane cost of living
@@sokratzmmf Yea, insanely cheap living cost.
Dear Professor Boyle, please do a video on quantitative and qualitative easing. Thanks.
Good shout, I hear some countries charge interest on bonds issued by QE, others don't. Why?
The content quality per 20 minute segment in this channel is likely higher than a week worth of "opinion" pieces on CNBC :x
CNBC is useful for knowing when to buy stocks tho. When all of the opinion pieces say not to. Like fall 2022
Why would you get news from an opinion piece? It’s in the name.
What's a CNBC?
Love your content, Patrick. Thank you
🦾🏃 I liked when Patrick was working out- in his suit 😂
Splendid, Patrick. As always.
Highest debt to GDP ratio, declining birthrate, more pensioners, not a good recipe for the future...
Excellent comments. Very technical. Very instructive. Thanks
Nice to see you responding to a question I asked in an email a while back!!!
Is that an open plan office, with a big marquee screen that never turns off, always sitting in the corner of your eye, constantly scrolling? This has to be Patrick's most horrifying video yet!
Just picture constant phone calls, doors opening and closing, people chatting amongst themselves, I don't know if I could think of a more toxic and suffocating office, the hit on productivity is ridiculous. Maybe have the workers use a two-sided chair with one set of wheels? Get some of that physical distraction in there too 😂
Another great video, thanks Pat good to hear from you!
More Boyle! Giving us what we want! 🎉
That’s factual but calm down 😅
If that's so, then where is the rap news?
At present I work for a Japanese owned firm in Europe. Last week headquarters announced they are winding down our business unit. I had thought that positive economic news would make the owners less inclined to sell. Well, they weren't inclined to sell, they decided to shut us down. (Check the Register for the news.) Based on Patrick's analysis here, it makes perfect sense that our soon-to-be former owners are looking to repatriate capital .
thank you for this excellent analysis!
New backround is cool. Do more!
Liking the new background!
Should be on a deck chair on the planet Mars
Great setup Mr. Patrick Boyle ❤
Why do people in finance always put two monitors above each other?
Great question haha, traders do aswell
I have the same question
They're optimistic
Help their necks out to get used to automatically nodding yes to everything their boss tells them to do.
Gains on the top screen, losses on the bottom screen.
Fascinating. Thank you
Just a comment for youtube algorithm - to support my favourite finance channel
Can you make a video about this slow depression we’re in in North America where companies are doing amazing but the cost of living is absolutely horrific?
I think he'll dismiss this because most finance people are wealthy homeowners who aren't feeling the brunt of this. They also rely on a purchasing power index that understates the role of shelter, healthcare, and education, while overstating the importance of consumer goods. The damage happening to the west isn't visible with surface level economic indicators that investors benefit from.
Rather, it is inflicted through the rising opportunity cost of higher education (both financial loss and years of lost work needed to qualify for a median income job). The higher cost of housing (the ratio to the median income is about double what it was in 1970 in the US) means that people borrow more, lose more equity to interest, and spend more of their lives paying rent (which prevents wealth accumulation).
@@GeoMeridium you're basically just saying that housing had gone up in price? I think everyone in finance would agree with that
Education has also become more expensive, but a college degree is still easily worth it
@@bball767 "a college degree is still easily worth it" Wildly incorrect. I have five. Only two (a STEM degree and a professional doctorate) are worth a shit. Most Arts degrees are worse than useless. Not only are they expensive and do little or nothing to increase your earning power or teach you useful skills, many actually damage your capacity to think critically.
@@dawnfire82 the average college graduate makes a million more than their non college contemporary
Some degrees are more useful than others, and some aren't worth what you pay for them. But by and large, higher education is a wise economic decision
@@bball767 Maybe 20 years ago when that figure was made, but now, no they don't. I know lots of college grads. They're struggling right alongside me 😂
Wow 😮 you made the video!! Thank you very very much. Great job! Well done and explained. I really appreciate this ❤
Thanks Patrick
Patrick always makes such informative videos without sensationalist nonsense
何だか拝みたくなるような、ありがたいサムネですな😊
Thanks Patrick... as a forex trader this can be helpful... I was a little concerned about the carry trade consequences although the rate is still so low that the carry trades could just simply continue - possibly even more as Japanese themselves could take advantage of the differential without having to cough up the difference🤭(not too sure if that makes sense after reading my comment again but I think it does). From my point of view I think Japan doesn't have to do other currencies the massive favor they have been with the negative rate and because the advantage(incentive) it provides especially in the ability to control their currency level is not strong enough to achieve the respect they really deserve even though when the Yen cuts it cut$ really/deep. Whether the rate differs from .2 to 0.1 or from 0.1 to 0.0 or from 0.0 to -.1 the difference is still only 0.1 and the relative overall amount/difference may be the more important variable. Thanks again Patrick for taking on such a difficult topic... if ever you could find the courage to do a video on foreign exchange market dynamics... would really appreciate that.😏 #yearofthedragon
Opinions on "lifetime guarantee" for certain workers and how it affects productivity? Or the corporate sector sitting on piles of cash?
I've been slightly stressed about Pat's browsing experience - very happy to have those fears now laid to rest. Moving on, I've never understood or really bought-into the "miracle" of Japan that I've been sold for the past 50 years...
What haven't you understood about it? There's thousands of articles. documentaries, movies, books about it. It's an extremely big part of Japanese culture and a point of nostalgia to many people. Do you think Germans rebuilding their country post WW2 is strange also?
@@A_Simple_Neurose Oh - easy - just because it seems like it was a bit rubbish. That's all. I mean, look where they are now... seems a pretty sh1te miracle to me.
But then I haven't read all those films or movie-picture books you cite.
Printing money out of thin air is a magicians trick more than a miracle
Love to see a you interview Richard Werner.
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I don't think it's going to work out for japan if they follow Canada's footsteps. More immigrant workers, interest rate changes, and other monetary policy didn't fix Canada's economic issues and in fact it's introduced far more problems.
Indeed. But luckily, no illegal immigration in Japan I think.....Which is estimated at nearly 2 millions people in Canada. In Montreal, a small and not overly populated city, we already have problems with the # of appartment available....I think the idea that mass immigration is a solution is a myth that only created problems in most societies...
Boyle is a globalist: he is an Irishman working in London so he thinks if it is good for him, it is good generally.
He overlooks the fact poor people will always displace those accustomed to a higher standard of living in such a scenario: young Brits flee London for a better standard of living while they get displaced and replaced by third worlders. Even young Irish no longer go to London so much now.
The London landlords win as rents rise. The London banks win as employee wages are held in check. The original citizens lose, however.
The system is actually unsustainable: the lost workers were cheaper than employers realized because the costs are externalized (e.g. migrants, future workers, living for years in hotels and subsidized apartments or never learning English well enough to be employed). But because the costs are externalized, paid for in taxes rather than wages, the globalist economists and Keynesians ignore them and just push the old narratives or even claim the unemployed migrants add to GDP by using the old broken window fallacy (break a window, then repair it, and GDP rises).
hey JAPAN... love from America! 🌺🥰👍
I don't even know why economists talk about nominal rates, the real rates in Japan are still deeply negative. Inflation is well above 2%. I was in Japan just 4 months and in 4 months the washing machine/dryer price in my hotel went from 200 Yen to 400 Yen (They came and changed the price twice in 4 months!). Also tracked my snack prices as it was convenient, about 3% increase in 4 months. That's huge inflation. Also some items I frequently bought (Soy milk for example went from 1000mL to 900mL with no price change, however that's 10% right there). I think this really just points to why people are rapidly losing trust of our academics and institutions.
this is outrageous! prices should never change.
Shrinkflation is real 😔
@@judeffr Using the most basic methodology I experienced well over 6% with a basic weighted average in 4 months. That's really bad. My point was how different the reality is to academics.
Wow, your anecdotal evidence lends incredible credence to your argument, a statistical approach would fail short of such tremendous insight.
SoyMilk?
Also, I have heard of the JPY-ZAR carry trade between the yen and the SA rand.
How lovely the world is becoming even more interesting.
i am just asking if those japanese trader bought us bond at 2020 were at profit now ? since interset rate is high now? Most of them holding atleast 50p down!
Good morning, Mrs. Watanabe. How's that carry trade coming along?
wtf, youtube hasnt shown me your videos since the Milei chainsaw one. I swear i had you on the "subscribed - all" bell toggle, but i just looked and it was set to "personalized". its been way too long since ive dusted off that 1.5x playback speed.
Been using Opera for 2, maybe 3 years now - ever since Chrome decided that my operating system was beneath it's dignity. And I must say that I've been pretty satisfied with Opera.
Patrick Boyle I suppose they deserve some price appreciation but I will miss Carry Trades with the Yen
Thank you.
May I add that, in the hope that I have not misunderstood, Japan does not have what I as a Brit' would call a pension.
It does not have state pensions, that is.
I am employed in Japan and my pension is a 'choice' as it were.
I would, after a couple of decades here, and especially speaking the local language, be shocked (and embarrassed now I have said what I have said) to find that there is a form of state pension here.
Even unemployment 'benefit' (British phrase) here is an insurance policy I have to pay for, and pays out for only three months should I find myself out of a job.
I lived in Japan and worked as a Japanese linguist in the Navy. I'm not native to Japan, but think I understand their culture and society pretty well for a gaijin. Something I noticed while living abroad in Europe and Japan, was that the perception Americans get from news, and particularly economic news, paints a picture of a country's economy that doesn't capture the actual effect on "normal" people. For instance, when I lived in Italy, I often had to go to Spain and Greece for work. This was back when the PIGS acronym was gaining traction, and these Med countries were called economic basket cases. From my experience, this type of news was about factors that affected the investor class, and government officials.
The reason is that the "normal" people in these countries were largely shielded from the effects of what usually turned out to be their government's fecklessness, to the degree their economies were shielded from foreign intervention. What I mean is that a country like Italy is mostly sustained by products grown and manufactured domestically. They eat food grown in Italy. They drive cars made in Italy. They wear clothes made in Italy. What this means is that the domestic economy is mostly a closed loop. Back then, Italy didn't even allow foreigners to own real estate in Italy. Greece worked similarly as far as being a closed loop economy, but not as much so in manufacturing. They also allowed foreign real estate buying, and as a result, people from richer countries in Europe bought out a lot of land there, especially on the islands. This brought up the price of real estate, and made it harder for native Greeks to afford to buy a house. Outside of this, the Greeks, like the Italians, consumed mostly domestic products on a day to day basis.
I bring up these PIGS countries, because the perception back then was that they the foreign perception was that they were economic basket cases, but the lived reality on the ground showed that the people ended up being affected only insofar as the country relied on foreign products or allowed foreign investment.
In my experience, Japan is like a turbocharged version of this. Even though Japan is a huge exporter, and as a result a pretty rich country, their domestic production is such that they don't rely on imports to sustain the population, and people largely consume food and goods made in Japan, though food imports are more common than in Italy for instance, because the population density of Japan is very high. In Italy and Greece, people largely eat traditional food and are less likely to eat food requiring produce imported from elsewhere. In Japan this is broadly true as well, and if they were to hypothetically go full isolationist, it would mostly mean beef would be a luxury, and fish would be the staple protein, which is already mostly the case. Japan makes cars, industrial machinery, consumer electronics, basically everything to sustain their economy, and their long history of complete isolationism feeds into their strong desire to be independent of foreign products. Japan is a supercharged version of the closed loop Mediterranean economies, being a literal island.
The TLDR of this rambling is that when countries are perceived as being in large economic trouble, this doesn't necessarily affect the local population as much as it would in a country that subsists a lot on imports, like the US. The people mostly affected by these problems are investors, both foreign and domestic, and government policy makers. If the Yen loses value in relation to the dollar, for instance, it doesn't affect a "normal" Japanese person that much, because everything he consumes was valued in Yen in the first place. It does affect capital investments in Japanese companies from overseas though. The elephant in the room is oil though, as all of the countries I talked about are big importers. Again, the effect of a "normal" person is often overstated here too, because their society is already setup where personal driving is far less common than in the US. Likewise, nuclear power is much more common in these countries. Their habits have "baked in" a general high price of energy.
I'm obviously not criticizing Patrick's analysis, as he framed the discussion in the way it is often framed in foreign media - how it affects foreign investment or geopolitics. I just wanted to expand on it with my personal experience that I thought was relevant to the discussion. Great job, as always, Patrick!
Great insight!
Japans economic trouble hasn’t impacted people, they’ve still seen their living quality improve. Just more slowly than other developed countries
Imagine waiting for years to get a 3.7% wage increase
Patrick could teach a class on wardrobe. (And another episode on punk rock would be rad.)
Is there a place where you share your scripts Patrick? I’d much rather read it as it takes 5x less time and one remembers way more from a written text.
There is a “Show Transcript” link under the description box.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
I dunno, that sounds a bit gay Frank.
Patrick, please have Gary Stevenson on your channel. That would be a fascinating conversation that I would love to hear
Proffeser patrick..x I've watched your videos for over a year.x do I have an accountantsy degree now
Most accurate analysis of current Japan. Their loose monetary policy has severely impacted the yen value causing Japanese to feel even poorer after the last few years of negative wage growth
While it is fiscally responsible for the Japanese government to move towards reducing its balance sheet, I'm concerned that inflationary pressure is upon the working age will further depress their reproduction rates, thus forcing the aging problem into an even steeper downward spiral.
Japan's aging population, and all the problems that come with it, will probably get worse before it gets better, and will take decades to unwind.
That's not how that works. One of the favorite things poor people do is make lots of babies.
@@obsidianjane4413actually that happens in a low income country , whereas in middle to higher income countries people tend to have less kids or no kids as they'd rather spend it on themselves
@@chromatron5230 Not on themselves.They simply can't afford it. When you see the price of housing in the west, car prices and basic cost of living... Compare that to middle income and you realise there's barely anything to sustain themselves at the end. Let alone getting expensive parasite that will gobble copious amount of cash until they can work...
@@obsidianjane4413 correction: poor, uneducated, and irresponsible people make a lot of babies.
Financially struggled, yet educated people understand the cost of raising kids an opt to postpone/not having children.
@@obsidianjane4413 couldnt be more out of touch
Bro never blinks. That’s how serious (and sarcastic) he is.
Its great that we see stock prices and news on the ticker tape, so that we can scan them with a high speed camera, use a convolutional neural network to decode the images, push the derived information into our time-series database and let our quantitative model (co-developed by no other than stephen hawking (anyone else would not have been capable of understanding its complexity) sell the 10 NVDA calls before rebuyíng 7,5 of them 0,3 seconds later to make 10k in profit.
Don't you just love technology used for the betterment of mankind?
so,I've never seen yen/dollar rate so low. can you
do a history of exchange rates,w/highlights not
warlights??
We do live in very interesting times.
The very high national debt in Japan is not comparable to the US. Social Security is miniscule; workers are paid a 13th month bonus, so working age people put that money in the bank. Compared to Americans (who are buying Sony cameras and Yamaha stereos) Japanese consume much less. With the excess savings floating around, it’s been very easy for the government to borrow that money.
Nice
I’ve lived in Japan for 8 years and prices and taxes have more than doubled for everything except for rent and that’s just because the population is shrinking so more housing is available.
Reverse carry trade in full effect
Patrick posted 3 hours ago?! How did i miss this??
Just got the noti over an hour ago as well. YT goblins sleeping at the wheel as usual.
😂
Nice to know, but bottom line... how bad will this screw up my vacation plans?
But Patrick Opera isn't what it was, Vivaldi is it now or brave whatever u preffer ;)
You’re staring into my soul in this one
Tokyo is very low cost compared to similar world class cities
I bought 4000 euros worth of Yen in mid March after l heard noises about the interest rate changing,l should have waited! The yen is even lower now against the euro since l bought it.
PATRICK YOU ARE THE MAN💪 EVEN THOUGH I HAVE NO CLUE WHAT YOUR TALKING ABOUT...😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 I JUST TRUST YOUR KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE WITHIN A CORRUPT GLOBAL MONETARY SYSTEM👌
Denmark was the first to Invent negative interest rates… not Sweden as Patrick mentions in this video.
He was close enough
One question remains: what problem is higher inflation supposed to solve? And how? From personal experience I can attest that high inflation felt good only in 1970s when real interest rates were negative and rapidly increasing wages and appreciating property made mortgages seemingly disappear. I just don't see a similar dynamic in Japan. Inflation without rapid increase in real wages will just further increase profits, but Japanese businesses are already sitting on piles of cash. And where did this fixation with 2% inflation come from? Where is the experimental data showing this is some kind of an optimum? And why 2%? Why not 2.718% (Euler's number) or perhaps pi % ? These would at least give a veneer of scienticism to the inflation target. And again personally as a consumer I cannot remember ever having found higher prices very pleasing, quite the opposite...
@velisvideos6208 Usually inflation is caused by government for financing stuff, redistributing things, or fixing as in setting things, roughly. The 2% inflation is just a target because modest %s allow the governments to do things while the impact of inflation to the economy will probably still be small. It's like the 95% and 99% in statistics, or an arbitrary small positive epsilon when getting limits.
If inflation has been so systematically low, why go to negative interest rates instead lf pushing for higher salaries? It seems it has finally naturally happened, but wouldn't a government push in that direction be positive for both the people and the economy? Or is that impossible for the government to push?
@ocarinasornos7205 Inflation is the easiest way governments become unpopular next to taxes, unemployment, and scandals, but also there's government debt, Japan's got lots of debt.
If Japan get rid of what attracts other investors to their currency, does it then become harder to service the national debt because the yen would be used less by investors as a place holder currency?
I'm expecting deflation in the UK. We've printed more than we can consume and need to strengthen the pound to repay national debts.
0:20 - Ehhh, isn't that a pre-1945 bond? 😅
i like that new auditorium you got.
A longer term issue is consumption is diametrically opposed to what we need to be doing (reducing consumption across the board)… Unfortunately we seem unable to solve this problem.
Why do we need to reduce consumption? Being able to consume more is what leads to greater quality of life.
@@zachb1706 this reply has to be some kind of a joke.
In case it isn’t, and you’re genuinely confused, think of Earth as a bank every living creature draws from to live. The big difference is, in this analogy there is no such thing as turning on the money printer. We are borrowing so much money without giving anything back that the bank (Earth) is losing the ability to lend any more money. Maybe think of it as an environmental recession, worse than 2008, worse than 1929, because it doesn’t just affect our silly little fake numbers, we’re talking about the fundamental stability and resources supplied for all life on Earth, life which (like it or not) we will always rely upon. In my view there is no emotion involved; the numbers do not lie, we simply emit, pollute, and consume too much to maintain the same standard of living for the western world indefinitely. We must either voluntarily slow our borrowing, or the bank will run out of money.
To give you more numbers, humans and their livestock now account for 96% of mammalian biomass on the planet. 70% of avian biomass on the planet are farmed poultry. We have flattened 85% of the rainforests present in Sumatra and Borneo. We have flattened 20% of the Amazon. It is estimated that in the US alone, 1,800,000 acres of land are covered by landfills, almost 2,200 square miles. In the Pacific Ocean there is a garbage patch covering an area twice the size of the state of Texas, or three times the size of the state of France, and that’s just the biggest patch. We have been directly or indirectly involved in more species extinctions in the last 100 years, than occurred naturally in the last 100,000. In somewhere around 200 years, we have directly and indirectly contributed to the same amount of warming as would naturally occur over the course of tens or hundreds of thousands of years. To compare the rate of heat gain by the ocean, which is our largest natural heat sink-it is estimated that we input 7 hiroshima nuclear explosions worth of heat into our oceans every second. The oceans themselves have warmed (on average) 0.8C compared to 1980, and it takes roughly 4 pounds of TNT’s worth of energy to warm 1 gallon of water by 1 degree. The oceans contain roughly 352,000,000,000,000,000,000 gallons of water. Even this seemingly minute temperature increase has vast impacts on the interconnected mechanisms of the entire world.
To give a specifically anthropocentric example, the frequency and severity of natural disasters have nearly DOUBLED since 1990, which ITSELF was doubled since 1970, and so on. Compared to even the 1950’s, we in 2024 experience 20x more natural disasters on a yearly basis, and SPEND 2x or more as much recovering from these events. Think about it-the planet is warming, and hot gas is energetic gas. It’s one of the most basic concepts of physics. That heat disrupts ecosystems, disrupts weather, and eventually it will become an ever-present force in our lives both actively (disasters) and passively (a decaying ecosystem, higher average temps).
Now consider third world countries which were already tropical in nature. Many of these host essential or culturally/historically significant crops, and are rapidly losing their yields to extreme climate-related realities. Weather, heat, drought. The cost of olives is up 350%, mostly because of the climate-induced drought spanning southwestern Africa, and several other crops are at all time high price for similar reasons. As these places become difficult to eke a living out in, or in some cases even outright dangerous to occupy, we will begin seeing widespread emigration to countries unprepared to receive them. These collapsing economies are the backbone of our own; they are our cheap labor pool that we don’t have to see or engage with past tugging the leash every once in a while. Singapore, Malaysia, many others.
This is just math, and understanding the simple fact that we are sh1tting where we eat. There is no, and will never be any confusion on this matter.
Now for another seemingly simple question:
Why is this happening, exactly?
Well, for the most part, we seem to have confused the word “consumption” with “status”, or “waste”. Almost all new appliances (or even products in general) are designed to end up in a landfill within 5 years. That is our single biggest problem. The only true barrier between us and true heirloom products, made using the cutting edge of our knowledge and ability for lasting efficiency, longevity, and serviceability, is money. It is a drug, and the most influential forces in the world are addicted, only looking for their next fix, not to secure a real future. If you remember the phrase “reduce, reuse, recycle”, I bet you didn’t know that phrase is listed in order of descending impact. Reducing is excellent, reusing is great, and recycling is the last step. Don’t use what you don’t need, reuse what you do, and recycle what you can’t. Have you noticed how infrequently companies advocate for the first two of those three choices? That’s because not buying a product doesn’t make them money, and reusing a product doesn’t make them additional money, and recycling ONLY saves on physical resources, there are no monetary savings, and it may in fact end up being a net emissive practice in certain areas, let alone impractical to begin with, such as with glass in some scenarios.
Now look into recycling. I’ll let you in on a secret: we don’t really recycle much. The recycling you put out on the curb? Yeah, only around 5-6% of that actually gets recycled. So when coca-cola says “made using recycled plastic”, they say it to make people feel like they’re having an impact. Not only is recycling the worst of the three, we barely even do it.
So, why would business interests want you to see civilization and our place in the world any other way than how they need you to see it to further their own ends? How much of your life has been brought up reciting the pledge as a loyal citizen of a country whose morality is clearly for sale, brought up to admire the power of the free market through the lens of a financially successful national history, guided into a world carefully curated by business interests through captive media, sculpting an environment in which the ideal consumer thinks the life they want you to live is the best there can be without question? Through what lens do you view our place in the world, and why? That is the question.
The answer is, we’ve been lied to in possibly the most insidious ways possible, because they were ways we were always eager to believe. We are powerful and destined to advance forever, and you have the freedom to do or buy anything you want. It sounds like an extremely cozy way to believe, to live.
So, yes. “Why should we stop consuming? It’s comfortable”. The truth is, we will either slow our consuming, and consume in a mindful manner in conjunction with actively working to reverse our impacts, or we will be forced to slow our consuming because it stops being feasible to due to a collapsing worldwide ecosystem and a thoroughly devastating climate scenario. Those are the two choices. This isn’t “wokeness”, this is math. We have more data than we could ever need to predict our trajectory and determine the origins of it. Your question stems from a background of ignorance, and you know what they say about ignorance…
Not a mention that the Yen is at a 40 year low....where does it go Patrick?
Damn , can't carry trade no more
I disagree with the source of inflation entirely.
Depreciation of the yen and supporting the stock market has resulted in extensive foreign sourced depreciation and assets for stock holders to purchase real estate which has resulted in inflation.
As a result it has come to the point where incomes must rise. The Bank of Japan has itself been critical of the government in not raising wages sooner to create domestic inflation.
Wages have NOT been the original source of inflation.
Correct. Inflation is made by the state to increase export demand. By making loans with banks. Japan has a negative export rate as they import twice what they export.
Is it symbolic or is that a huge change? Going from negative to positive seems like more of a change than going from 3.5% to 4%
They went from -0.1% to 0.1% I think. I guess the first thing would be smaller banks starting to store more money into the central bank again and not feeling like they need to find ways to invest in other assets like lending to foreign investments.
Wow you got all that out of a week of using Opera
10:10 reminds me of the Japanese businessman who had his 200,000 yen changed into dollars for his trip. But he gets to America and his meeting was canceled so all he can do is turn around and go home. He goes to change his money back into yen but only gets back 100,000. He asked the teller where his money went. The teller says "fluctuations."
Furious, the Japanese man says "Fluck you Americans!"
6:41 Luxembourg $345B. That is $528,000 *_PER CAPITA!_* Just in US bonds - let alone US equities or other assets globally! Jeez - they must be loaded...
Back to the zero lower bound (ZLB) threshold ;
Things are not looking good in many places outside Tokyo
Thats ok!
Japan is fine, you random gaijin
Due to seigniorage, even an interest rate of zero or even 5% is still a negative rate in real terms, so Japan's negative interest rates did not really end, they just went up to less negative in terms of real purchasing power
Bitcoin fixes this.
Patrick I’m sub’d and haven’t been pushed any of your last videos. Annoying.
FYI.
-0.1 to .1 is a 200% gain, so i'd not say it was a small increase
Can you do a video on canadas productivity crisis?
Kenya must show up somewhere... Shida yetu ni gani bana!
This looks like some video game version of Pat
Japan simply prioritizes the interests of the middle and lower class over the upper class. Yes you can still be a billionaire but you can't just fire people at will or underpay them. No wonder their society is so stable. I mean, even if you work in a restaurant you can still live in a decent street where you ain't scared of being mugged while going home at 1:00 am.
Patrick, did you get my “haircut” email from the weekend?
Lets gooo !