What I Expect From Nvidia’s Earnings
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- čas přidán 25. 07. 2024
- Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings next week and it will surely be a closely watched event. They have beaten earnings estimates by double digits each of the last 4 quarters, but expectations for the stock are already sky high. In this video we talk about the latest in Nvidia’s business, what we’ve heard from their customers and competition, and what I expect to see in their earnings report next week.
00:00 What’s going on with Nvidia’s business?
04:29 What have their customers and competition been saying?
13:37 What I expect to hear in their earnings
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Just for clarity on my NVDA position because I said “I was ok starting my position at these prices” technically that was prices in March when I first bought, but here are NVDA buys in detail in case you want to know about my position:
3/20/24 - Bought 20 shares at $897.85 / share
4/8/24 - Bought 10 shares at $872.17 / share
4/22/24 - Bought 10 shares at $779.06 / share
Total position: 40 shares at $861.73 / share
Currently up 9.8% on my overall cost basis
Just curious, is there a reason you waited to invest in Nvidia? Was there something that held you back about the company itself last year or prior?
I never dug into them before their crazy run up(late 2022 to early 2023) and after that I assumed like many people that they were an overhyped stock with an unrealistic valuation. So I continued to ignore it until March of this year. That’s why I called my analysis video “I finally dug into NVIDIA and here’s what I found.” I was pretty blown away and started a position then.
Sometimes we have to get out of our own way and just do the work and let the analysis speak for itself🤷🏻♂️
10 shares here, at $791 / share
Would you recommend buying @ 954 before they announce the earnings
Honestly it’s really a personal decision. I buy some stocks before earnings and others I’ll wait. It just depends on what my analysis says in terms of value at that time. NVDA has the added issue of having extremely high expectations so it all depends on your perspective on them. If you don’t want to deal with a large potential drop after earnings then you should wait. There’s always a chance that it shoots up higher but again it all depends on your view of the company and how you would feel if it dropped 30% all of a sudden
I think a lot of companies wanting to build their own chips are going to have a hard time. Nvidia is so far ahead of everyone else. They've been building accelerators for decades. If you break down the computations involved in machine learning, you'll see it's very similar to graphics (matrix multiplication). They are far ahead of everyone when it comes to these calculations. They have an entire ecosystem around what they do best - accelerated computing.
The most cost effective way for companies wanting to develop thier own chip is to utilize Nvidia's custom chip services and build on Nvidia's years, and billions in development enabling them to focus on their desired implementations. SaaS and NIM is a high margin area that will add to the bottom line for many years to come.
If amd, Intel who are in the chip business with all the know how finds it so hard to compete. I'm not sure how could the software companies do any dent to Nvidia dominance
Agreed, that was my biggest finding when I started digging into them. Their lead / moat is so strong for anyone wanting the best actual product and the companies that want / need the best actual product are the ones with the most money to spend.
Amazing company for sure.
Longterm success is my question.
Thank-you for the video!
Movie inserts are hilarious.
Solid analysis. Subbed
Huge video! Thanks!
Bought puts on the newest 52 week high. Also calls on nvdq
I just watched your "answering your comments" video and please be aware that for every annoying rude commenter, there are hundreds of people who enjoyed the video and maybe didn’t write a comment. Remember that your fans and admirers might be silent, but they learn a lot from you. I bought MSCI after listening to you, and I am proud of my investment. Thank you!
Thank you, I appreciate it. Awesome about MSCI, it has had a nice recovery from the earnings drop so far!
I just bought 10 shares. 🤑. I think the stock keeps climbing past $1000 after earnings.
100 shares at 184. Best investment of my short investing career
awesome!
1100
I loaded up on NVDA options back around $150/share, closed it all out in Jan after tripling the balance of one of my IRAs. I am still running a few deep spreads at around +24% for 3 mos, but I do debate almost every week whether or not I want to pick up a straight stock position (I have a friend who just retired @ 48 with NVDA) .. for the most part I haven't yet because if the near term upside is 20-30%, I can do that after earnings with more options since they are so damned pricey. I have years of regret not just buying NVDA shares on their own that nag at me though... I just don't want to deal with a short term pullback after earnings if that happens.
@@malikbeluga7545 lot of people at that time were saying i am not buying is to exoensive looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool
I bought $500 LEAPS WHEN Nvidia was about $450 last thanksgiving investing ~$18K (bought 2 contracts). I just converted those contracts to 200 shares of stock adding ~$5500 to my initial investment. My cost basis is about $123. That’s almost an 8X increase. There’s years more growth.
That’s awesome!
I bought 12 NVDA and 12 CRWD in September and they've added great growth to my portfolio. Wish I had bought the dip in April for both tbh.
I was lucky enough to grab some sub $800 NVDA which helped bring my cost basis down
Very good video
Thanks!
Hey, by any chance you look at Monster Energy?
I haven't dug into them yet
its going to be all about the guidance
Great video Matt! I’m excited about the 22nd.
Same!
Nice💪
I do not know if nvda will continue to beat earning even if I have done hours of research on sentiment, valuation, business fundamentals, how much big techs are buying NVDA chips, predict how much of that is already priced into the price.. I just hold NVDA via index fund.
k
I’ve been all in Nvidia for years, knew this was all going to eventually happen. Just didn’t think this fast and soon.
That’s amazing! Excited to hear how they are doing on the 22nd
As far too many speculators are following NVIDIA I don’t think that excellent earnings would be that much relevant for the stock price. The stock could skyrocket to 1000 and then lose 10% in the matter of hours, as it already happened last time. Or there might be some sort of buy the rumors sell the news thing (and we have seen also this before). I’m more interested in the mid term grow of the stock :)
Personally,$1000 plus is definitely very real.
They are #1 and will stay there in near future.
You want to know about the future of NVDA?
Just listen to Jensen.
Wall Street is noise and volatility and they cannot judge what NVDA potential really is looking at a balance sheet and some old fashioned metrics.
I haven’t really talked about it in my NVDA videos, but Jensen was also one of the reasons I was ok starting my position this year. I love his story and his mindset and think he’s the most dynamic of any of these CEOs
@@mattderron NVDA is the most important development on earth.
If that is not good enough for WStreet it is their problem.
Now if you want to make money in general with stocks you have to pay attention also to liquidity/rates/recession risks and to consider that volatility is part of the equation.
Having said that i cannot find in 2024/2025 a better stock to invest.
Big earnings and a 10 to 1 split!!!
Yup!
My company 🖤💚📈🇺🇸
please share all your free documents etc thanks
I added a few more shares last week (had bought some back in 2021 and 2022) and probably should have bought more. If NVDA beats earnings estimates next week, I will just hold. If they don't and the stock retreats, I will look to pick up more.
Same, I added around $775 which was very fortunate and I'll just see what the market does after earnings
load up all you can ,NVDA is ready to explode Buy buy buy$$$$$$$$$$
I hope it goes to at least USD1100 and split.
When I initially bought I thought a split was something likely to happen this year as well. Not that it's a reason to buy, but it would be nice if it happened
Worth to buy?
I think NVDA is a great company but its valuation is high and expectations are high. Which means there's a good chance for some pretty wide volatility. Only you can decide for yourself if it's the right time / price for you. There's a chance that it goes down 30% after earnings, or a chance that it shoots up. You just have to decide what makes sense for you. If you don't want to experience the chance that it goes down very quickly, I would wait and see what happens with earnings and then decide.
👍
Hey Nvidia will grow like chipotle!!!
I think NVidia is a winner but by how much & at what price. I am not buying. I think I am too late and the benefit vs risk is too high. So I am happy with my exposure to the stock via my tech ETFs and I am well stocked on TSMC.
I like what I see with AMD (Lisa Su is Jensen Huang cousin btw!). Very tempting at 160$.
But:
I am buying Intel again!
Not because it is cheaper but because I believe in the Co. direction.
Did you do a stock analysis for Intel? I am going to have to look for it...
I think Meteor Lake is going to be a great chip, I believe their new manufacturing processes and innovations at foundry level (7nm) will give them an edge. Earnings have been pointing upward in late 2023 and 1/Q 2024, winning USA military contracts and other clients commitments along the way.
The Hartland project started in 2022, and was scheduled to full production in 2025 but, now delayed to 2026-27. That means it took 7 years to build that manufacturing plant. This is not something other manufacturers will be able to beat, the physical ability to build 7nm, 3D die stack. Finally I also believe their new chip design is a move in the right direction.
Cheers,
a.
If you're relatively young, intel should do well later on. I have two leaps on Micron and it is at all time highs currently.
Investment in infrastructure and what’s the ROI? How they recover the money?
What’s the alternative? Just let their competitors do it?
@@mattderron did internet of things became immediately profit generating at it’s birth? How long did it take to where we are today with internet? I would argue it is the same with AI. There will always be the same saying “this time is different”…..
@@Nah-kh and there will always be people saying that “investment in this nascent industry is a waste, where’s the ROI?” 🤷🏻♂️
The beauty of the market is you can bet on your view with your money. You don’t have to invest in these companies
@@mattderron agreed. So long as real people like you are still making videos Ai is still not a big deal. Kudos to those who bought at the lows… thanks but no thanks at all time high.
For sure and that’s a choice we can all make. The only caveat I would say is again these companies are at all time highs in terms of price only. Not in terms of price to value. Value is better today than a year ago for most of them if you are measuring cash flow or earnings you get for the price
Woohoo 10 for 1 forward stock split!
Yup, great quarter too. Came in just at $26B and blew out margin expectations.
NVDA is a great company and yes their customers are spending billions so NVDA will probably beat earnings. However, they have the same market cap as Google, yet Google earns 6x the revenue so I think this just doesn't make any sense
It's because the market is forward looking and NVDA's projected revenue growth is 7x of GOOGL's. Not saying that's right or ok, that's just what it is
@@mattderron NVDA's growth rate is definitely impressive and makes it deserve a premium valuation. I'm just not convinced that it deserves to trade at a larger market cap than Google. After all, it's not like Google is some slow giant with near 0 growth. Even after growing revenue and eps by 100% YoY during covid, Google continues to grow revenue and eps in low teens which is very impressive. Imo, Google is the better bet for the next 5-10 years. NVDA may outperform for the next 1-2 years but GPUs last quite awhile so the refresh cycles will take several years to kick in
@@dgi012 you don’t have to convince me, I own GOOGL too. Just answering your question as to why it trades at a premium to GOOGL
The only reason i can see nvidia missing expecration or guidance would be because of bottleneck is getting the chips out
For sure, production capacity at TSMC is definitely a big one
Meta just spent 12 billion $ on new Nvidia chips. The same spending is done by other big companies and governments. This huge spending will not happen on a yearly basis. So Nvidia might come with a better chip. Sales will go down in certain periods.
at what point does the spending stop and at what price is NVDA at by then?
@@mattderron Nvidia stock can go up by 25-30% per year. When companies stop buying the new chips? No one knows. But the chip industry is cyclical. So there are down periods. Think we can get to 1100 this year and 1400 next year. Then we might see a down year where the stock falls 50%
I've been writing covered calls all year on NVDA and making a great income......but I don't do that during earnings week. I wouldn't be surprised if they reported 26B+ in revenue but not more than 27.5.....but I wouldn't complain ;)
Nice! I was about to say...covered calls during earnings week would be a bit dangerous lol
@@mattderron Correct. I trade 48 weeks a year and still do well.
@@mattderron unless you want to sell it at a ridiculous strike 1300.
NVDA will help me buy 2M dollar house in the city.
NVIDIAs PE is 75 and EPS is 12. How is it undervalued ……confused 🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐
PE was double that last year. Business growth is outpacing stock growth, but obviously some will say PE of 75 is overvalued no matter what 🤷🏻♂️
Forward looking vs trailing twelve months
I just wonder if this will be a opportunity to add to my 11 lonely shares 😉
Definitely could be
So...the hype is justified...?
My original analysis on them is here - I Finally Dug Into NVIDIA. Here’s What I Found.
czcams.com/video/Yj1TIASb16U/video.html
If the revenue is below 26 / 26.5billions its going to fell massively
In about 2 years you might be right. But sales are still strong till end of 2025
@@albertinsinger7443 for this quarter I mean :)
@@albertinsinger7443 its the forecasting that will sink a stock...that's future revenue and right now the future is good. I'm hoping for a stock split, so if you buy now you may get two shares this year if all goes well. They are predicting 24.5 billion, you say 26? ok I'm nervous...
I think they will do six dollars per share, but the stock price will crater because of weaker guidance
No, the price will not crater since they will sell every chip they can get TSMC to produce.
Could be, it's hard to tell what the market will do for sure
I can't help but feel that NVIDIA is a cyclical company at the top of the cycle. So earnings and FCF look very strong, and the valuation looks good. But once people have all the AI chips they need, the cycle is going to turn, the growth will disappear together with the earnings and FCF, and people will remember that semiconductors are cyclical. Guess what happens to the share price then? Hint - look at NVIDIA's long-term term share price chart.
Sure, nothing will be an infinite growth company, especially if they deal in hardware. The question is when will that cycle start to reverse and at what price / valuation will the company be at then?
The question for any investor is whether or not you believe NVDA's growth story is intact or not. People saying "it can drop 30% in a day with a bad earnings report" may not be wrong. But the stock is up 225% over the past year
I sold my 3 shares around 875.... lol 🤣🤣
oh no! Hey if it made sense for you then that's cool lol
@@mattderron well I did buy in @ about $300 a share but I'm still missing out on some upside.
That’s an amazing return, all good!
Great contents, thanks for the video. Appreciate your research efforts
@@rajendrashrestha9869 thanks!
I am holding for sure, but I think this will be a buy the rumor, sell the news….earnings will crush, guidance raised, but it crashes bc guidance won’t be strong enough…..
Could very well be
I’m not so sure about that. CPI came in good, OpenAI unveiling ChatGPT 4o has given new breadth into the AI story along with their talks with an Apple partnership and Alphabet unveiling their own LLM to compete. Big sell offs happen when there’s bearish sentiment and investors think they’re best to take profits. I also think there’s a chance Nvidia announces a stock split on earnings. I see a lot of people not wanting to buy in because they’re looking at the lofty share price (when relative to their revenue growth Nvidia trades at a pretty cheap valuation).
i held through for many quarters
i dumped everything today
Cool, sounds like you had some amazing gains