Eurovision 2023 Data Analysis - Who is winning according to the charts, ESC Scoreboard and OGAE?
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- čas přidán 21. 04. 2023
- I look at the current chart positions of the 2023 entries (based on esctracker.com), the OGAE vote and the current standings in the "My Eurovision Scoreboard" app to try to draw conclusions on who will win Eurovision 2023.
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My Eurovision Scoreboard is the app sorry!
9:28 well at least here in Finland, Cha cha cha has become a huge phenomenon that I haven't seen before. It plays everywhere, it's amazing. I think, for the general audience who don't know the song from ESC, it may be offputting since it's not in English and it is pretty different from what Spotify (which is Swedish btw, not implying anything of course no way xD) probably pushes to people. I'm sure that once the semifinals are here, it will be quite a different story :D
I completely agree! "Tattoo", "Queen of King" and "Solo" can definitely be marketed more easily to a general audience who doesn't know anything about ESC. Whereas Käärijä is a bit out there.
Käärijä singing in Finnish doesn't help in the charts, but it works well in a club. 😁
Cha Cha Cha is really not doing too well in the charts. These days, to generate a lot of streams on the platforms, playlist placements are crucial. Loreen has been added to very big editorial playlists, at least on Spotify. That's probably partially because of the fact that she has good background promotion, e.g. playlist pitching and radio station sampling. And Tattoo is a song that is tailored to be liked by a lot of people. It's a good written pop song, so it's only logical for it to get good playlist placements and then chart in various countries as a result.
For Cha Cha Cha, the song is not as easily accessible. It is sung in a language barley anyone speaks (globally), yet alone understands. Also, it is not a genre that is typically featured on big editorial playlists. Hence the lower chart scores. Loreen's success atm is very impressive and surely an advantage, but it is sort of logical that Käärijä hasn't arrived in the mainstream yet. Perhaps even an advantage for him, because the WTF-moment for the general audience will be even bigger
Thanks for that background info! Very interesting. Will add that in my update video
I think you're so right on the WTF-factor beeing very positive for Käärijä. For me the song isn't the thing I like so much as the performance. Specially the liveperformance's from preparty's and the finnish selection. It's irresistible when people are going bersark (bärsärk) in the "Cha cha cha-bit" and sing along in finnish. And I'm quit obsessed with the sweetness of Käärijä. 🇸🇪♥️🫱🏻🫲🏽🇫🇮
@@eurovego Yeah, I totally get that! I think he could really benefit from being in the first semi. I could see his SF1 performance blowing up on tiktok with the dancing sequence, which could create a solid peak on the day of the GF. A lot of esp. younger people could get hooked and be like "okay, I will tune in and vote for this madness".
Would be a lot of luck and it isn't controllable, but imaginable. He is beyond charming, and people will see that if they nail the camerawork. 🤞
I kinda wonder if Cha Cha Cha doesn't get a huge amount of radio airplay on pop radio outside of Finland/Nordics because it's just a very niche sounding song and the Finnish language isn't the most accessible. Thus, it might not get on top hits playlists on spotify in various countries. However, after Eurovision I can see it doing better in the charts and streaming because it will have a lot more exposure than it does now (ie going viral on tiktok).
Very possible yes
Cha Cha Cha! ❤🇫🇮
This is a very interesting video. This data could definitely have an influence negatively and/or positively on the results in the end compared to the actual ESC results.
Sweden beeing on many charts could have an influence on the final voting for sure. It's ok with me since beeing a swede, but I have other favorits to that I will vote for. Specially Austria and Croatia but also Spain, Norway and Ukraine of course. Since the war.
@@eurovego completely agree with you!
I take a bit of an issue with you saying “esc fans prejudiced against
I am against lgbt free zones in Poland, i’m against PiS, i’m against TVP, i’m against that lady that once scored second place in ESC that’s on the Polish jury, i’m against her calling people demonic etc. i’m against blanka being her son’s friend & the blatant cheating. What i’m most against is all this antilgbt stuff going on & her not speaking out against it, because she wants a career. Or perhaps she believes it too.
I don’t like dishonesty & i hope Poland gets a big fat 0.
All the bejba memers would do well to remember all of the above.
People’s rights are non-negotiable.
Prejudiced against Blanka not Poland
Very nice, you have amazing ideas for eurovision predictions
Aww thanks and thank you for watching ;)
Thank you for your research. I enjoy watching!
Thanks for watching Anita 🤗
love your videos :), keep it up, i watch every single video!
apple music is NOT very common here in sweden, thats true. Spotify has been normalized here for over 10 years (its a swedish company after all)
Another thing to consider when people give points on these, is that when people TELE VOTE on esc week. It's only their 12 pointer that is given! what ever song they have as top 4 or 5 does not show in the televoting what so ever!
This means that the songs that are "i like this and only this" (for example rock songs with rock fans!) will get way more in televoting. This can also explain why slovenia is so high on the ESC scoreboard. But I doubt it got a lot of 12 points. But possibly a lot of 4-7 pointers!
To add more to this!
Since the juries are always giving points in the ESC scoreboard style, and not in TELE voting style.
It brings a fundamental problem with how the points are given. Which could also explain why certain songs get a lot of points from the jury (other than the reasons you stated in your absolute great video about jury favorites!)
How about a looking at the jury 12 points only vs tele voting 12 points only, im sure we can find a correlation in these!
Oh thank you sooo much for watching!
The people only voting for their favorite is very true too. Will add that to the conaiderations next time. Thanks for pointing that out!
That is very true too but I guess the juries are supposed to act in that way. Helping songs that are fine just not splashy enough to get a 12 from someone?
@@eurovisionhistories that makes sense with helping the "not splashy" songs! i like that idea
Don't know if these data are accessible but I think album charts could be very interesting here. I have the impression rock fans have a stronger tendency to listen to whole albums instead of single songs compared to pop fans.
And as you seem to be a fan of medleys: Theodor Andrei started doing a cover-medley of the Eurovision 2023 songs splitted in 3 parts. Not only that it is interesting to hear some songs in a different way but it is a nice way to show respect to the other artists of this year.
Tattoo is currently in 17 countries on official single charts. She hasn't released an album since 2017, as she isn't in good terms with her label and only returned to them in 2020, so they are still not letting her do things like music videos or proper promotion (remixes, alternative versions, physical releases etc). Her current team is her friend circle. The outfit for example was made only in 4 days by her good friend.
@@twistedelegance_ Looking at your comment and one of the others here: I think you wanted to someone else here. But so or so: Interesting to know
@@akanichts267 Your first sentence doesn't make sense but okay. Glad to be informative, not that it matters to you guys. Wanted someone else what?
@@twistedelegance_ I forgot the word answer. I think you wanted to answer to someone else. Now it is correct^^
@@akanichts267 ah I see. No, you were spending of albums, maybe I misunderstood.
Well it is safe to say if you have a song in English language it will appeal to a bigger audience. So maybe in this sense Kaariya is disadvantaged with respect to Loreen but this doesn't mean he will not do well at Eurovision.
Spotify is not a neutral channel. Artists put money to promote their songs on it 💵 Therefore it’s not the best way of predicting anything. More telling about the promotion budgets.
But having your song on Spotify and in playlist certainly is good for its chances at Eurovision
Definitely an excellent marketing tool but doesn’t predict. Comes from Sweden.
But which of the songs have massive ad campaigns pushing them up, and which songs don't have massive ad campaigns behind them?
Well having one is certainly good for their chances at Eurovision
@@eurovisionhistories But do massive ad campaigns translate into votes or not? Do we have data for this from previous years? I'm just wondering.
Not really. Who had them?
@@eurovisionhistories OK. So we don't actually know the statistical value of the data then. I don't know, that's why I asked. 😄
I think early polls or charts matter but what matter the most is peaking at that right time. And that's the Esc week with live shows.
I remember at this stage songs like Shum, Dark Side or Voilà in 2021 weren't anywhere to be seen with Spotify or other streaming plataforms. And also we have to have in mind that some labels put big money to be in some playlists and shuffle to promote a song. Viral charts may be more indicative probably. But again everything can change in the crutial week.
Another thing is that televote/charts don't always match. Like Trenuletul last year. Moldova got most of its highest scores from big Western countries and the song wasn't even one of the most played songs on Spotify after Esc in those countries like UK or Germany. It really depends I guess.
That is a good point! Not being om the charts doesn't mean you won't do well but the opposite is probably more true. Being on the charts usually means you will do reasonably well.
I love that Snap is still charting 😂
Crazy right? 😅
How interesting! I didn't know this existed!
BTW, regarding Balnca, I'm not from Poland, and I'm not prejudiced against her. I had never heard of the controversy until after I saw the live performance, where I could see that she cannot carry a tune live without anyone biasing my judgement.
I cannot imagine her doing well. For example, Brividi was an amazing song, performed by 2 good singers, who made a mess in the live performances in the final week (surprisingly), and because of that, it didn't score as high as it might otherwise have. Blanca has no chances of putting out a good performance, because we already know that she cannot sing, and she won't get to the level she ought to have in a couple of months. I don't see how she can possibly qualify. Even if people like the studio song, they're not deaf, and she cannot sing it the same way on stage.
Eurojury it's very important. Artist professionnels
Televotes would ironically vote for Solo I think.
I think it will be very close with the televote who wins it, either Sweden or Finland. I don't agree with people that says it is certain that Finlands gets the most televote because of how many more streams Loreen have on different platforms, like you are talking about in the video, AND we all know that Loreen will be alot higher with the jury if not number one compared to Finland. I think Finland will be around 10th place with the jury.
Me after watching this video: Dear neighbours, Lithuanians, we seriously have to talk. 🤔
Hahaha 🤣
😂😂😂
I think Finland end up like Norway did in 2019
Being 1st in televote, but the jury rating it very bad
I don't think it will be as bad as Keiino because I believe he did win the juryvote in his own NF. But yes, I don't think he'll do well enough with the juries to win: 6-10th with the juries.
This is the reason why I think Spain has a better chance of winning than Finland.
@@adamtideman4953 Well the juries in the National Finals are more people who have a connection with Eurovision and the contest, while Eurovision has professional juries coming in then.