Who will win Eurovision 2023 - Do the odds predict the winner?
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- čas přidán 20. 04. 2023
- I am looking at the Eurovision odds of the last 6 contests 4 to 3 weeks before the Final to find out how good the odds are at predicting the winner and the rest of the Top 5 and try to draw conclusions for Eurovision 2023, looking at the current odds for Loreen, Käärijä, Blanca Paloma, Alessandra and the class of Eurovision 2023.
This is my personal opinion and observations not a betting recommendation! - Zábava
I have never paid much attention to the odds, I've thought they're quite disturbing and have an unnecessary impact on the contest and actual results. Also, I've always thought how they may affect the motivation of artists, since they're already ranked long before the actual event...
Having said that... I can't believe I did it but I put 5€ on Käärijã's win today 🤞.
🇫🇮✌️🧶😊🧶👍❤
Cha cha cha 2023!
People who have heard Spain's LIVE say that it is a very impactful 'experience' which really makes an impression. For those of us who never will get to hear the 'live sound', which is most of the televote, the impression of the performance on tv will be less, unfortunately. I have a hard time understanding how Ukraine is now so high on the betting (unless they are getting special attention due to what's going on in their country these days). Austria and France seems to have a much better chance I would think.
Hello from Spain. I will go to the final next Saturday and will remember yout comment during the performance of my country 😍. I'm not the biggest fan of our song this year, but maybe live at the stadium for first time, it hunts my feeling in a impressive way.
@@gabrieldelpinocoffey3089 Lucky you! I wish Spain the best. I am sure the Liverpool version will have a different feel / sound to it than the studio version. I wasn't the greatest fan of Queen of Kings from the start but I can see its strong sides. I lived a number of years in Peru before (long story) ending up in Norway. (I will be in Barcelona in June and in Gran Canaria next winter 2024). Viva España! 🇪🇸
If you compare any reaction videos between Loreen and Käärijä, it's like.
Loreen: nice song Loreen is queen , yes ok...
Käärijä: ...wtf...?? ..this is crazy!! ..??.. no it's party, it's crazy!!! I LOVE IT!!!🎉😂🎉
Wow bringing another artist down just because your fav isn’t winning 😂 Sure you do you but that says a lot
Also how many loreen reactions video have you watched 💀 The assumptions you made is so subjective and intend to put Loreen down :))) Saying people hate Loreen and Sweden for nothing is not an exaggeration
From what I recall, Cyprus in 2018 was low in the odds initially and shot up in the odds once rehearsals started. Same with Austria in 2014 I think, low in the odds a few weeks before but went up in rehearsals. If that happens this year I would expect it to be Georgia (in 16th) or Armenia (in 12th). Because those are the two that I think could surprise us with their staging, and they both seem to have solid and reliable live vocals. Some people that bet on Eurovision know nothing about the songs or competition. They just look at statistics. So they will bet on what has done well statistically. This skews the odds somewhat in the ongoing year, since a country doesn't necessarily perform the same from year to year.
Would be nice to do the same video after the rehearsals to see if anything shifted. It usually does. I don't expect Poland to all of a sudden enter the top 10...but maybe countries like Portugal, Latvia, Armenia, Georgia to name a few will rise in the odds.
That is the plan ;) Hope I find the time
Just a small reminder: Blanka still represents TVP, not Poland. Poland does not have a representative this year.
@@berlineczka mea culpa... :-) I will be more mindful if it ever comes up again. How did that ultimately end? Is there any indication that it will have some consequenses for, well, anybody? At least Jann is doing well for himself. So I am glad he is moving on and having such great success! It is well deserved.
@@Stonebrook83 TVP basically ignored everything. The only option left would likely be one of the contestants suing the broadcaster, but I guess it's high risk low rewards situation so no one will do it (not to mention that since the 2015 constitutional crisis the courts in Poland are not fully independent anymore). I am not sure if someone tried to get access to the detailed voting results (which were never published) via the right to public information law, and then go to administrative courts if TVP refuses. That would be the other legal path I can think of. But again, it's money and other resources, and the courts are what they are.
So, the only option left is:
1) keep being vocal about the corruption and spread the word of Poles not feeling represented and please don't vote for this song. Maybe if the broadcaster puppet is humiliated they will manipulate the result in the future less or not at all (we hoped the comparably lesser scandal with Rafał in 2021 was enough, and sending fan favourite Ochman in 2022 would show the broadcaster to trust the Polish public from now on, but... no).
2) Play the long game and keep the issue alive as another example of the democratic backsliding in Poland. We have parliamentary elections in fall, and right now it's ~50/50 between the democratic opposition and the ruling party. If the opposition manage to win, they will be able to change the management of the public broadcaster (yeah, it's that strongly controlled by the politicians) and maybe also replace people responsible for ESC. But this is a long-term indirect way, and not all people see the connection.
3) As for Jann and others - they are doing well. Jann is selling out tours, Dominik Dudek is played heavily on the radio. Felivers are booking gigs. The other contestants were not given as much exposure as Jann did, but they were given some sympathy too. Even Blanka had some at the beginning, when people still believed she may be just a pawn of her label and the broadcaster, before she doubled down on denial, insulting other participants and disregarding Polish fans.
Cyprus will
Very good analysis! Thank you from Italy for the good comments on the song and on Marco’s vocals 🇮🇹
Di niente ;)
Love your channel/thinking!
Thank you Carl Gustaf ;)
interesting statistics, personally I think Loreen and Kaariya in this moment should have the same odds to win I see a good support for both of them. Spain and France could be the dark horses. Ukraine I think is overrated in the odds, it was probably due to the result last year. I don't see them doing that well this year but time will tell.
So to recap, did the bookies have the actual winner in their top 5 a few weeks before the final? 2022: Yes. 2021: Yes. 2019: Yes. 2018: Yes. 2017: Yes. 2016: No.
That's a very good analysis. I agree with almost all of your thoughts.
Thanks tiger
The odds have actually been pretty good at predicting the winner recently mostly because of the nature of it. The last time that the winner of the actual contest was not in the top 5 of the odds was 2016 at this point in the contest before rehearsals. But where the odds kinda fall apart expectedly is predicting the lower places/qualifiers. This is because without any decent idea of how the performances will go it is hard or predict who will do well based on the song only because this is the only decent judger we have on who will do well or suck. Yeah as you said performances really matter in terms of the odds compared to how they do in ESC because the performance is obviously a big determiner in terms results as it is a live show and not simply judging the studio cuts or even judging past results which is what the odds do basically. This video was so interesting as I said.
@@LeafHuntress yeah I did. I was just talking about the odds on general as well which was hinted to in the video.
Very interesting vidéo, I didn’t like the Spanish entry on her video but I saw her live in Amsterdam and saw her on CZcams in Madrid, she changed my mind and think her performance was world class and could get a top 3. She won me over. Finland could do it as he is very charismatic and his song and performance seem to be very popular in live. Won’t be long before we find it out. I’ll be in Liverpool for the live shows. Can’t wait and whoever wins will deserve it.😘👍🤞
Oh so jealous. Did you get tickets for the semis or the final?
I got the tickets for the 3 live shows through the french fan club. I feel very lucky.👍🤞
@@eurovisionhistories I bought them today fir the final
@@NoahLewis_Aylingviagogo?
Great video!
Thanks!
And for the note, there are some countries like Portugal that are not allowed to bet, it's illegal (only on sports, yeah, a bit hypocrite) so, we don't bet in our own song like UK, Sweden or Finland.
Yeah thanks thats a good point
@@eurovisionhistories I can't find the countries that can't bet, but in Portugal is just for sports the online bets, which is very sad !
@@ApolloRR I think it is officially forbidden in Germany to bet on anything that works with televoting
You seem to assume that odds are set by people betting against each other; in reality, you bet against the bookmaker according to the odds that are set by them, who likely does take into account placed bets (but does in no way have to consider placed bets), but that's just one out of many factors as they will try to gain the upper hand in terms of knowledge to win the bet against you (i.e. likely also looking at streaming numbers, mentions, reviews, etc).
Also betting companies were until fairly recently (few years ago) illegal to run or market in Sweden, but as Sweden, just like Portugal, exists in the EU, a nation is not allowed to block services from another EU country (so in practice the law in Sweden only blocked ads in local print and broadcast media, but not online or foreign broadcasts). I highly doubt that Portugal has any exception allowing them to block Portuguese people from using EU-based betting services online with other bets than just sports.
@@idomaghic I can garantee you, we are not allowed to bet here.
I knew Ukraine was third in the odds the day of the final in 2016 but damn I didn't know it wasn't in the top 5 weeks beforehand.
I mean the performance really elevated this a lot
Odds are just odds. 42% change of winning is 58% change to not win! There are many possible winners. 💚
It is worth mentioning also that no contestant in 2021 at any point achieved a higher than 25% odds chance of winning at least one day prior to the finals (i.e. the prediction was very very weak), which is very unlike for e.g. 2022 (where Ukraine surpassed 25% already back on March 1st). And is also very unlike this years odds where Sweden surpassed 25% on Feb 24th.
Unfortunately, daily percentage winning chance history isn't available on eurovisionworld for years prior to 2021, and no percentage calculated at all prior to 2018, but the final read before the finals were like this since 2018:
2022 - 62% chance Ukraine (correct, predicted since Feb 26),
2021 - 26% chance Italy (correct, predicted 1w before),
2019 - 51% chance Netherlands (correct, predicted since March 9th),
2018 - 37% chance Cyprus (incorrect, but 2nd most likely at 24% chance was correct with Israel, which was actually correctly predicted from March 11th until 5 days prior to the finals).
Basically, I'd argue that the odds were quite spot on, though I guess 2018 does look a bit comparable to this year in last day numbers, with the big difference being that Cyprus came up from nowhere just two weeks prior to the finals (which hasn't happened this year).
Finally, odds are NOT just based on bets; the odds are in the absolute majority of cases set by the bookmakers where they obviously take all factors they can into account, as that's how they stand to gain the most money.
in 2018 indeed Israel was leading the odds for many weeks but after rehearsals Israel was second and Cyprus was first in the odds , love your videos !
Thanks for watching Ed!
I really believe Israel will surprise us with the staging and the live performance
Looking forward to that ;)
They will bring unicorns AND centaurs to the stage! :D
Finland
I think Italy will get more points than Spain with the Jury, Italian song is more appealing to the jury than Spanish one. The Euro Jury is voting like crazy for Sweden, France, Italy and Norway. And fans OGAE/Infe kinda agrees but adds Finland, after Sweden. - I'm following The Euro Jury for first time, it's nice.
El Euro Jury ese votan sin criterio realmente académico, hasta Finlandia está arriba del top, y otros sin capacidad vocal destacable. Tienden a votar canciones más pop/ligeras/comerciales
En Eurovision eso sería injusto viniendo de un “jurado profesional”. Pero cualquier cosa puede pasar porque no son un jurado realmente docto. Uno de los requisitos que deben tener en cuenta el jurado es la voz y la de Blanca es la más prodigiosa este año en Eurovision. Otro de los requisitos del jurado es la originalidad de la canción, la de Blanca jamás se ha visto en la historia de Eurovisión, y bebe de una fusión muy artística entre el flamenco (declarado patrimonio inmaterial de la humanidad) y música trance/electrónica.
Las puestas en escena habrá que verlas, pero la de Blanca si es parecida a la del Benidorm Fest será realmente muy artística, con multitud de simbolismos que un jurado entendido debería valorar de un modo extraordinario.
Si el jurado boicotea a España creo que confirmaré que no quieren que ganemos, y prefieren favorecer a otros países que son más amigos, o no son competencia directa o son vecinos o hay intereses detrás, cualquier artimaña antes que hacer ganadora a España, aún siendo la propuesta más artística, original y virtuosa este año. Es tan injusto.
It's early days yet. Things will change. It might be worth keeping an eye on the lists for top-3 and top-5 as well. They have a somewhat different angle. The current top-3 chances: Sweden 74%, Finland 53%, France 26%. Top-5 chances: Sweden 79%, Finland 71%, Norway 48%, France 39%, Ukraine: 39%.
Thanks for the tipp. Will include that in my next video
If the juries think like that about the favourites then they should be sacked off through bias and rigging
I meant it happening morr subconsciously not directly thinking "gotta vote for the faves"
Estonia is the dark horse in this competition
Albania, Slovenia, France, Cyprus and Greece are the best, but Portugal and Spain are great too! I like Lithuania and Switzerland as well.
10:22 'Do a Duncan' should be an actual expression!
Hahaha I will try to establish it
They got the winner right in 2018, but completely missed the mark in 2017… and by completely missing the mark I mean pegging the current score record holder (even higher overall than Ukraine, which does hold the televote record now) at fourth place… 🤦♂️
I don't wanna share some bad vibe, but you've used wrong odds it seem :)
What do you mean
@@eurovisionhistories You're not using correct odds it seem. Eurovisionworld is the site that gives the most accurate odds, and they do differ to those you've used, for instance, Cyprus was bookies fav in 2018 ;)
With Italy I think voters still remember their hosting last year. I would personally therefore not put money on Italy to win.
Seriously doubt people vote based on that
@@eurovisionhistories I vote based on that (or rather, don't vote). 😄
Italy has a poor song this year. Not bet, sure
I'm warning you Cyprus will go flying up in the odds
If he actually songs like in the studio version I can see that happening
I have a feeling that only 2 of this year's top 5 will be in the top 5. I mean Sweden and Ukraine while the rest will be lower and we will have some very (now) unexpected top 5 and top 10. Similar to 2018, I would say.
Which ones do you think will join Sweden and Ukraine in the Top 5?
Similar opinion, I expect Italy and Croatia in the Top 5, and Finland to be drowned by the jury like Poland in 2016 or Norway in 2019. :) Also, not so certain about Ukraine being in the Top 5.
@@eurovisionhistories some of these, in no particular order: Australia, Italy, Switzerland, Lithuania, Moldova - I think that any of these with a good staging and engaging/emotional performance can do very VERY well with televoting or juries or even both. I am not quite sure about France and Germany - there is a potencial for very good places and for flops in both (I personally, like their songs but there may be something lacking with them live, not quite sure what). Big question marks next to songs by Israel and Croatia. They can do extremally well or very poor if they arrive into the final. With Noa - it will be difficult to replicate Chanel's success. With Croatia - it may be this year's Treneletul (sorry if messed spelling) or not. PS. I personally like Austria, Spain and Finland like many fans but as it often happens with massive fan favourites they end up between 5th and 8th spot in the final. This is very possible here, Finland is much more of televote song for me and Spain may be not much appreciated by juries or televoters or both. Austria not at the top 5 at the moment but it could be/or not if the staging got messy and the message misunderstood.
Agree with all of this actually ;) thanks for sharing. Italy, Lithuania, Moldova seem like dark horses for Top 5 to me too
Australia 2018 - I'll say this again the fan community overates bops and their chances and they think theirvtaste is universal - no one else was that enotmouted wirh We Got Love to begin with.
But they overlooked Eleni Foureira...
It is quite obvious that due to the fact that you don't like the song, which of course is ok, you are underestimating it, and you overlook its winning potencial. It has a huge winning potential, and I think it will actually be the winner.
Eurojury
Brunett will win - 100 %!!!
Iru from Georgia is this year's Dark Horse, Mark my words. ❤💯❤🔥 She is the best and strongest vocalist live this year. And they will put on an amazing live show on the stage in Liverpool. Just like Eleni in 2018, who surprised everyone and climbed from the bottom to the top, so will it be with Georgia this year.
Her vocals are indeed amazing, the composition is great, unfortunately the lyrics are awful and the music production could be better in my opinion.
@@queenofthegods I actualy don't care about the lyrics, did anyone care about Chanel's lyrics last year? Did anyone care about Maneskin's lyrics two years ago? Or from the lyrics of Moldova? Or from the lyrics of France or from the lyrics of Portugal? No. If the song is good, you love the song even without understanding the lyrics. And the song is great.
@@Tubered There's a difference between "not understanding the lyrics" and the lyrics being bad. You might not care, but I do. If I didnt care about lyrics I would listen to instrumental music.
IMO the banality of the lyrics collides with the highly artistic song / music video in this case. Iru deserves better, she's an amazing artist.
@@queenofthegods I didn't say I don't understand the lyrics, I said I don't care about the lyrics if the song and vocals are good live. I will always prefer a good song even with not the best lyrics over a bad song with great lyrics.
Well you were wrong lol
Finland will win
Sweden is definitely winning. But maybe not with a big distance from second place like 2019
You mean 2012?
@@eurovisionhistories no. In 2019 the Netherlands were the big favorite but they won only by 27 points.
In 2012 loreen was also the favorite and she won by quite big distance
Ah got what you mean ;)
@@Scheherasad lol. It's not even my favorite
Finland should be at the end of the top 10. Too overrated
I totaly agree. I think Finland´s contribution is just a clown singing a (not so)funny song, but some party-animals like that type of show.. But I think it will be forgotten soon. In the swedish contest (that Lorren won) this year there was like 5 songs that all of them are better then most of the other eurovision songs.. Sweden and a few other countries have a much higher standard/quality over all compared to most of the other. Just look at the historic numbers in Eurovision...
@@MrAndreasR81 yes, it's a shame for ESC