I like ZZs formula better and it's easier. Take leaders pip. Divide by 10 and then Subtract 2 and round up. N if they are ahead by more than that its fine fur the double. For take or pass decision instead of adding 2 you Subtract 2 and then do the same extract calcs to determine take it pass. So if leader pips was 100.b then divide by 10 =10 then -2 = 8. Round up =8 . If leader is ahead by 8 or more is a double. If trailers pip count was 113 then 113 you hake 100 divide by 10 =10 but then you Add 2 to get 12 so since leader is ahead by 13 pips it's a drop since 13 is greater than the 12 pips max take point. Works perfect and easier to do the math than Trice.
Hey Dan. You had one mis-application in the video. In the position around 11 min in, where you show when to initial cube, the Trice formula says you can double if you are within 3 pips of the enemy's point of last take, yet it's a correct double when it's FOUR pips away from the last take. It's an exception to the rule, more pips away from the point of last take is WORSE from the doubler's perspective, not better. :) This shows the vulnerability of racing formulas, they can be too inflexible and you have to keep adding rules, like this position, you could add some sort of penalty pip for and extra "cross-over", but it becomes complicated, since in other positions the cross-overs don't matter, nether the numerical count of cross-overs or the magnitude of them. A player like Sander, reigning World Champ and UBC champ doesn't use any racing formulas :) This particular position seems to be that we have a clear advantage to get the first checker off and and waste very little rolls in our future bear-off, that our position is better than the racing formula indicates.
Oh, I see that you made the same mistake in the following redouble position. The racing formula indicates that it's a CLEAR redouble, since you are so many pips ahead that you are actually on the enemy's point of last take. However, due to the wastage of the deep spare checkers on our 1-2-3 point, it's not a redouble yet. When you are evaluating race formulas, you have to choose positions where you keep wastage constant for both players otherwise you introduce a new variable and make the initial investigation useless. You could do some sort of adjusted pip count that gives penalty for this wastage, and different adjusted pip counts do it in different ways. All in all you are probably getting 3 penalty pips here if you wanted to translate it directly into Trice racing formula.
This is implied - if trailer is 3 pips off then of course anything over this would be a double too. As mentioned, Trice's Rule is right around 75% of the time, and exceptions can be found with the reasons you mention (crossovers, wastage etc). In the example of the RD you point out, I show that this is indeed the case where Trice is inexact. I guess though 75% is better than guesswork in these situations. Sander just has phenomenal pattern recognition but for us mere mortals, it doesn't come so easy :)
Excellent content, thanks a lot!
Thank you
👍
I like ZZs formula better and it's easier. Take leaders pip. Divide by 10 and then Subtract 2 and round up. N if they are ahead by more than that its fine fur the double. For take or pass decision instead of adding 2 you Subtract 2 and then do the same extract calcs to determine take it pass. So if leader pips was 100.b then divide by 10 =10 then -2 = 8. Round up =8 . If leader is ahead by 8 or more is a double. If trailers pip count was 113 then 113 you hake 100 divide by 10 =10 but then you Add 2 to get 12 so since leader is ahead by 13 pips it's a drop since 13 is greater than the 12 pips max take point. Works perfect and easier to do the math than Trice.
Graphic error @ the 7:05 mark - 3. 63 + 8 = 71 (not 74).
Appreciate the content.
Hey Dan. You had one mis-application in the video. In the position around 11 min in, where you show when to initial cube, the Trice formula says you can double if you are within 3 pips of the enemy's point of last take, yet it's a correct double when it's FOUR pips away from the last take. It's an exception to the rule, more pips away from the point of last take is WORSE from the doubler's perspective, not better. :) This shows the vulnerability of racing formulas, they can be too inflexible and you have to keep adding rules, like this position, you could add some sort of penalty pip for and extra "cross-over", but it becomes complicated, since in other positions the cross-overs don't matter, nether the numerical count of cross-overs or the magnitude of them. A player like Sander, reigning World Champ and UBC champ doesn't use any racing formulas :)
This particular position seems to be that we have a clear advantage to get the first checker off and and waste very little rolls in our future bear-off, that our position is better than the racing formula indicates.
Oh, I see that you made the same mistake in the following redouble position. The racing formula indicates that it's a CLEAR redouble, since you are so many pips ahead that you are actually on the enemy's point of last take. However, due to the wastage of the deep spare checkers on our 1-2-3 point, it's not a redouble yet. When you are evaluating race formulas, you have to choose positions where you keep wastage constant for both players otherwise you introduce a new variable and make the initial investigation useless. You could do some sort of adjusted pip count that gives penalty for this wastage, and different adjusted pip counts do it in different ways. All in all you are probably getting 3 penalty pips here if you wanted to translate it directly into Trice racing formula.
This is implied - if trailer is 3 pips off then of course anything over this would be a double too.
As mentioned, Trice's Rule is right around 75% of the time, and exceptions can be found with the reasons you mention (crossovers, wastage etc). In the example of the RD you point out, I show that this is indeed the case where Trice is inexact. I guess though 75% is better than guesswork in these situations.
Sander just has phenomenal pattern recognition but for us mere mortals, it doesn't come so easy :)