China’s Crumbling Economic Story
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- čas přidán 22. 05. 2024
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Deng Xiaoping's reforms in the 80s transformed Shenzhen, a small town near Hong Kong, into an economic powerhouse. China's rapid growth lifted millions from poverty but did it grow too quickly to be sustainable? Now China faces deflation, and experts are worried that this could spell the end of the economic miracle.
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I'll never understand why economists are always surprised when a economy doesn't grow forever when no economy has ever grown consistently forever
Depends on how you parse the data. At the decadal level, the United States has been in a phase of sustained growth since the 1830's. Even with the Great Depression, 1930 GDP was higher than 1920 and 1940 was higher than 1930.
@@markbarta2369How much of that is population growth and inflation? Are people materially wealthier now than they were 30 years ago? Do more people have houses, cars, education, families, etc.
Well, forever is too much to ask, but consistent growth is not only achievable but very common. After all, we technology advances, we make new breakthroughs in different fields, everyday someone invents something that saves us money and time and productivity is ever marginally increasing. If not by a giant crisis or a world war, there's no reason to think that's not how it's going to play out in the next century or so.
@@appa609 Of course there are mitigating circumstance3s, but the USA has come closest to sustained growth.
@@appa609 if you want to know the answer google it "US real gdp per capita" or "US income per capita" ill give you a hint
The US is growing
China has built the infrastructure very extensively in a short period of time. Impressive, but in the book of economics, maintenance of this infrastructure is what will make China really sweat out its budget. Building extra lanes, ramps, buildings temporarily inflates GDP for the year, but if no ones using it, it would crumble in a few decades. The entire economic system of China is built upon this.
don't worry, we are using it
@@umbrellastudio7481 Then why are all those high speed rail lines unprofitable and where do all the ghost cities come from and why do only a hand full of cars drive over that huge bridge near Hong Kong each day?
I have seen numerous articles and videos of china’s “infrastructure”. Storm drains in these new cities are fake. This became known widely during china’s latest massive flood. Turned out they just put a storm drain grate over a slab of concrete or just dirt.
Also that road infrastructure is at least a manageable problem. At worst you can just let the roads rot into nonexistance. But this is the country that has rush built dams like there is no tommorrow and operates the largest dam on earth. What happens when those start to fail due to poor construction and lack of maintenance?
@@LTNetjak consider the main competitors of China are nations that spend money to create bombs, I would say China would easily win out.
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The fact that we get free videos from Economic Explained on CZcams is priceless, keeping the education and knowledge alive. 🙏🙏🙏
"Optimistic recklessness" is a fine synonym for "corruption." 😂😂😂
Don’t attribute to malice that which can be adequately be explained by incompetence.
Or Greed
"Optimistic recklessness" is greed, best exemplified by the financial industry in the States. Worse, in the USA its greed for the collective few. But in order for the CCP to get their mandate of heaven they need to be subservient to the nation collective. So, the common Jack and Jill will fare better and have better lives and livelihoods in China than in the States. If you visited both nations, you'll get it
Not even close
While actual, definition-consistent corruption does appear common in China, it's hard to tell from a western perspective how much of that is real and how much is a tool for political infighting. The evidence we have wouldn't really amount to a substantial financial drain on the overall economy - at least in terms of bribery, embezzlement, or cronyism - though tofu dreg projects are certainly a major contributor because they cost the nation way more than anyone is stealing.
But all that is still discounting the indirect impact: dishonest leadership at all levels reporting and aggregating bad data which then informs bad policy decisions. I've no doubt that will be the root of China's eventual undoing.
Another huge problem that you did not mention is the failing banks. These banks lent a lot of money to the provinces, and also funded much of this real estate development that is never going to get paid back
State-owned banks too. Lending the people’s money.. it’s truly awful.
That's where alot of the lending in that in debt is from. Especially the average worker
Many workers stopped paying on mortgages for the non-existent homes they were fooled into buying.
Using loans as collateral for a larger loan to buy shares or start a project securing investment from other people taking out loans. Don't forget- no body owns anything in China. It's all owned by the government. Mortgages for a rental property are insane and it's commercial property, too!
China's debts are almost all internal, which puts the issue within their control. They can sort it out among themselves.
Very good explanation of the debt. Would love to see something on de-globalization and how much affect it is really having on China (i.e. globalization not going away but is getting realigned and re-worked in ways unlikely good for China). Sort of glossed over demographics too.
Why would you want to know how something is hurting China's economy? Is it bc you are in a hole and can't see a way out, so you only want to see someone else in the same hole? Chinese people aren't like you lot. They keep their heads down and work hard. They don't care if you're doing great, or not. They do their own thing. And that's why they are making so much progress. Maybe you lot could learn from them
Unlikely good for Germany or Japan? Yes
But China? Really? Go and watch video of youtuber visiting China, you should see China from someone who truly visiting it. Not from someone who sit in front of monitor making video from stitching stock images/videos
@@MrAdhiSuryanaThere's this thing called data
@@MrAdhiSuryana I remember watching "serpentza" ride through China, encountering it's ghost towns, checking and showcasing their shabby construction.
This is just one example, but overall the same information comes out of anyone in China who is not a government shill (which to be fair, is an extremely small amount of the people within China).
if you finished watching this video, you will know that the so-called ghost town had been filled.
you did great with this one, keep doing it!
I just wanted to take a moment to say how amazing your video was! I was really impressed with the quality of the footage, the editing, and the overall presentation. You did a great job of explaining the topic in a clear and concise way, and I learned a lot from watching your video.
;)
As a foreigner living in China for almost 10 years I'd say they recent economic downturn is mostly about horrible Covid regulations. Many small business were struggling and closed, leaving many families broken because they invested most or all of their savings into them just to see their families and marriages collapsing. This is surely not the only reason but the most traumatic and demoralizing that might last for a few years. Government policies related to family planing, education and foreign investments are also ridiculous, it seems that Xi is becoming the new Mao in so many ways.
Reported you to ccp. Say goodbye to social credit
The Covid regulations have their place in this... but mostly what they did was accelerate the issues that were already there. Without them alot of the issues would still be coming... but they would have been stretched out over a period of a decade or more.
Xi basically threw multiple wrenches in and set off all the bombs at once. The bombs were long set, but...
Without his nonsense there would be a bigger window for fixing the issues.
I'm a Chinese American now, my wife and my family knew Xi is Mao wanna be for a long time now. Being a shamghainese, I was fortunate enough to be able to study abroad and immigrate before that.
The pandemic impact on families is NOT exclusively to china at all😅
Chinese government spend10% of their budget on education what do you mean it’s ridiculous???😅😅😅
The issue I'm concerned about the most is whether China, specifically the provincial governments, are actually being truthful in their reported debts. Their reported incurred debts are a massive amount already. Even if they're only hiding, on average, 10-15% of their debts through number fudging, that's an extremely significant amount that makes an already shaky situation look even more unstable. That's not even to mention that they could be hiding a much more significant amount of debt, hoping that they can string the people and National government along long enough that the economic growth will perpetuate their Ponzi-scheme like cycle of selling land to cover their debts, only to incur more debt and need to sell more land.
What????? You think the Chicoms would lie?
The debt number used for provincial debt was a 3rd party estimate based on Goldman-Sachs, not the state-reported debt. It can be wrong, but when they're basically saying that their debt load is >10x that of the US states, it's an estimate, not a blind acceptance of state-reported numbers.
(I personally think they're in the right ballpark with this particular number. My concern would be the other side of the ratio: GDP may be lower than reported. Basically it feels that A LOT of systemic fudging has been going and it's all been going on in the same direction - higher GDP numbers and lower debt numbers - of which state-reported debt is one of them, so likely the scale of the problem is concerning. The fact that China has had this phenomenal growth for 40 years is actually a bad sign as it means they've been able compound this systemic failure for almost 30 years.)
China's debts are almost all internal, so it matters little to you whether they're accurate. They can sort it out among themselves.
@@tychay "The fact that China has had this phenomenal growth for 40 years is actually a bad sign as it means they've been able compound this systemic failure for almost 30 years" - no it doesn't. China's growth is only 'phenomenal' in terms of it being as large an economy as it is. Other countries have also had decades of rapid growth of a similar nature.
@@tychay Which is going to make this the mother of all collapses
Another fantastically produced and massively informative piece. Appreciated! (and terrified)
I was kinda mad when you brought debt to GDP as I was sure you'd ignore other types of debt, but you didn't, even included corporate, great job 👍
"when people are fearful, be greedy, when people are greedy, be fearful " it's a good mantra if you're already rich
It’s almost like there is a finite amount of end users in a population and populations can’t exponentially grow in perpetuity.
To be fair to China, most of the population does not earn nearly as much as other first world countries, so theoretically the job growth would have continued to create more end consumers. And that was a theory that did not hold up.
@@danielgrezda3339 agree there, i’m more referring to the infrastructure can only be used by the amount of people within the population and when your population is shrinking like China, investing in continued infrastructure growth (hence ghost cities, low usage rail ways, etc) isn’t going to derive you anymore benefit because there just isn’t anyone to use it.
It actually can grow for longer
The problem is O N E C H I L D P O L I C Y
Moreover, the demographics of China are going to cause further problems. Their birthrate is woefully insufficient to maintain the current level of population and the Chicoms don't allow immigration. This is going to be the mother of all collapses. I'm hoarding popcorn to watch. It's going to cause problems with the world but it will weaken China significantly. The Chicoms are all about superficial appearances. NOTHING is built to last. I don't think their military materiel is an exception.
Especially when women wont have kids because they are focusing on their careers and hypergamy..
Really concrete and concise content! Great and thx!
Thx for the video!
China's collaspe was an yearly event but now it has become a monthly update. 😅
its almost as if the west needs something to distract from whats coming. I can tell you now the chinese media don't spend every waking hour talking about how the west is in economic decline, even though the west absolutely is.
It's happening now. Demographic collapse is a very, very bad thing when you overbuilt. I talk to Chinese moving to Dubai. Things are bad in China. Very bad.
A nation's collapse happens very slowly, not overnight.
so what does very bad thing mean? all i hear is just bad end and collapse, but what does it mean or look like? if you are saying that the chinese are going to starve to death, i dont see that happening. if you are saying they are going to become homeless, i also do not see that happening. after all money is just a representation of commodity, and china have a lot of stuff.@@bernardkoppes4401
@@bernardkoppes4401中国又崩溃了，你好高兴啊😂
Surprised you didn’t mention what many consider one of the worst parts of deflation, is when it’s combined with high debt. Since a yuan is worth more in the future, their debt load actually increases in real terms each year and can either trap them in never paying it off or just be a bigger and bigger portion of their income each year.
that's why governments across the world fear deflation like the plague!
lower interest rates should compensate for that though
@@goldie6634 The Fed has entered the chat. "Higher for longer".
It also means they can use quantitative easing without having to worry about the inflation it causes - in fact inflation would be a positive affect in this case. Beijing isn't in much debt, in fact it's the worlds' largest creditor and asset holder, so they can afford it.
I was also thinking about the debt-deflation problem during the video. It criples the country, the companies, the citizens.
Always interesting, thank you.
I appreciate the video on this subject. Can you provide your research sources?
I wonder how accurate those chinese statistics about gdp are.
As an Indian I know how easy is to manipulate numbers. And Chinese are much more efficient in most of the things compared to Indians :)
Mostly made up
Cope
Probably very exaggerated. I once read a claim that in reality it's only 40% of their reported figures. Problem is incentive: Everybody in china is incentivized to report steadily rising numbers.
A lot of those data is from IMF a US based NGO and US investment companies.
Also an important factor is the ratio of debt in foreign currency would be nice to explore this aspect as well
Nearly the entirety of the debt is in Yuan
Thank you for the video.
One of the main problems with using GDP as it stands, is that it includes government spending. Government has nothing that it doesn't first Take from the present or the future. Governments actions also distort market signal information, resulting in malinvestment that is one of the factors in the boom bust business cycle.
Ive watched a video every year about chinas economy on the brink of collapse at least once every year for the past 10 years. This fulfils the 2023 quota, onto 2024!
It's a problem when you don't know all the information. Like if you see a car driving and u see a wall in front of it you know it will crash. If you do not know it's speed, or acceleration/deceleration. You will not know when it will hit the wall. But you watch and see the car getting closer and closer.
When will the car hit the wall ? Tomorrow? Next week ? Next year ?
Now imagine the wall is invisible. But you know it's there. And still know nothing about the car.
The car could even be invisible and all you got is what you can hear.
This is what it's like trying to predict china's economic downfall. We know it's coming. And all signs say it's near. But the amount of unknowns are large due to doctored statistics provided by the country.
@@allliquid6320 if you say it's doctored, then it could possibly mean that this perception of china about to collapse is "doctored' as well when in reality it's not.
The bubble was already there 10+ years ago, everybody knew, but yet nobody fixed it, just inflating it from big to huge. Further delay the pop will just make it even more painful.
Just another year or two and the CCP will get guns out in people's backs and make them spend their savings on more crappy condo units in order to keep the bubble going before it finally collapses.
Obviously one year it will happen for real, all strongly growing economies eventually stopped doing so after all. The question as always is, when? How far do they get before facing substantial difficulties, why those difficulties? Can one predict it ahead of time?
So in that sense, there probably are a few out there making the right call on what will cause China major issues. And indeed, maybe this one is perhaps right and the sheer scale of current debt might become like heavy weights dragging the immediate economic prospects of China down. Or maybe they'll find a way out of this issue as well.
We will have to see as the years go by I guess.
It’s funny how the issue of rezoning farmland to urban and then selling it as a lease for urban development and that the whole process makes up a large percentage of local budgets… is omitted.
I have read somewhere recently that China has lost almost half of its arable land in the last couple decades. Scary stuff. Water is all poison too.
This is a great video. Is it possible to make a similar video about Sweden? They also have a high household debt and also the municipalities borrow like crazy
"Please China, collapse, I've been making the same prediction for 40 years now..."
China has been collapsing since the 2015.
😂😂at this rate they are just coping like this
You know a rocket a going up, if it doesn't have enough fuel to Espace gravity, will eventually come down. China is that rocket trying to escape the gravity aka middle class trap. Everyone knows it doesn't have enough fuel and burning at a ridiculous rate, it's only a matter of time
40 years ago China was third world country, what collapse are you talking about?
@@aerodynamism5438 people in your country doesn’t like sarcasm?
really great video, have not heard the debt situation explained that clearly before
The fact that we get free videos from Economics Explained on CZcams is priceless, keeping the education and knowledge alive. 🙏🙏🙏
@@olefella7561 Or it's just a mutually beneficial byproduct of capitalism?
I lived in Shenzhen while it was expanding. It was amazing. I miss it a lot.
Shenzhen is definitely still expanding you can count on that
Great video. That said, I'm guilty of high-rising terminals myself, but this was so intense that it almost felt like parody.
I like how today anyone can make a CZcams video about any topic and say whatever they want, provide ZERO SOURCES for their claims, no bibliography whatsoever, no way for the viewers to corroborate the claims made in the video... and still we call this 'information'. Technology is awesome.
which part of the video do you find questionable?
@@thomasd4738 "questionable"? I question everything. So should you. Or do you generally take whatever people say as absolute truth? Citing sources is an absolute necessity, especially in videos like this.
@@pinkace Well that's an admirable instinct, but not necessary in my case, as I live in China and am very close to the topic. No I haven't checked the numbers, which in many cases are so consistently falsified as to be unknowable, but anyone who knows anything about China's economy is aware that the country is extremely deep in debt for precisely the reasons the video says.
@@thomasd4738China Beige Book sums up everything you need to know about China.
@@thomasd4738really? Then where u live in china and what kind of job are you in? and what's your education? If you really know China economy then why they are still standing after being bombarded by "China will fail" for more a decade in internet?
Economists always "should have known better"; but somehow they never do.
In this case, the CCP has completely ruled out micro economics that are absent in state planners like themselves. What we are seeing is macro economics based mostly in theory. "Build it and they will come' has to be built by an entrepreneur in a micro model to be successful. They built it and what they got is speculators.
Every year there is a new story about how China will crumble soon. Then the next year they say, "wait! this time is different"
westerners projecting about their collapse
I’ve been hearing that China’s economy is crashing/crumbling since 1990, every few years, with convincing hypotheses. I am officially bored
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About the ghost cities that eventually get filled. with current building standards and cutting corners that are getting worst as construction companies' debts grows, by the time those cities get filled the cost of maintenance and repairs on those buildings would already be unsustainable.
The maintenance alone will bury them in debt.
is this fact or just assuming? is this all of the housing in china?
The ghost cities won't ever get filled. There's too much over capacity, and the population is shrinking - and it's going to keep shrinking.
they arnt going to get filled. china has more supply than demand in housing and the future generations are getting smaller and smaller in size.
Great video
I remember visiting China in 2014 and learning about the real estate bubble. I’m surprised it took so long for it to pop.
The bubble was supposed to pop at 2015, but the government said to the god of economy "not today", they blown more air into a bubble, made the pop unbearable to anyoneone in China. Good job.
You should be more surprised it's still growing in other places.
@@vlhc4642 Honestly the US/EU bubb1e is worse than China
If you're concerned about the real estate bubble in China, don't look about what is currently going on in the USA right now, not to mention what happened in 2008
@@zarategabethe US has historically low vacancy rates at the moment. China has ghost cities. The situations are nearly opposite.
There's a saying in the stock market something like 'the market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent', basically meaning "don't bet against a doomed company because it's hard to predict *when* it will die". I think the same applies to China. It's built on a rotten foundation and I think a major economic collapse is inevitable... but it's hard to say when, because being a totalitarian dictatorship means the thing that China is best at is hiding reality for as long as possible. We can have bad news after bad news, and it's impossible to predict which straw will be the one to break the camel's back.
While there are fundamental flaws with the way how all modern economies work. People have been calling for china's collapse for Literally 30+ years. What does a collapse even look like?
Agree, existentialism would question of when the emperor had no clothes, when he put nothing on or when the child acknowledged it?
Well said and spot on. I would only add that while the specific timing is nearly impossible to predict, the noose the CCP has put around the neck of the Chinese economy can no longer be removed. It is only a matter of time for China. Its entire economy is based on exports and yet, China lashes out at the world and destroys any goodwill it created during the past few decades. China is extremely poorly managed and this will be revealed with time. The more difficult questions are will Xi survive this and will the CCP survive this?
There is also a saying that everyone dies in the long run, including nations. If you wait long enough, say 10k years, chances are the world map will look very different.
Realistically, things in China are only going to get worse from here. While the housing crisis is an insane issue, their biggest issue is probably their aging population, which is made worse by a collapsing economy and unemployment rates.
China is so incredibly fucked.
Can you please make a video explaining Albanian economy? I am from there and I have no clue how that country makes any money and the prices of good and real estate is through the roof. It’s truly a puzzling case to say the least!
Its time to put Albania on the economics explained leaderboard!
Real estate prices all around the world don't make sense. Normal people/ middle class are not able to afford them and can just look at big companies buying and selling them and say wow such a large transaction
Informative video good
I'm curious if LGFV's were fit into the category of SOEs in this video or if that was skipped over. Also whether local debt was included as part of provincial debt. Kind of unclear. If both weren't included then the 300% debt to GDP ratio might be a significant underestimate. Good video otherwise.
I estimate the total debt without Household debt to be 57 Trillion USD adding in Household debt is 70 Trillion and it's a good estimate as anyone's including the actual CCP ones because I'm reasonably sure they don't know the full picture either, that's why they can't get to the bottom of it and sort it out, it's a financial quagmire and being belligerent as well does not help!?!
@@thomasherrin6798 Sounds about right to me. Truly staggering numbers though.
Major problem of china is the whole growth story was dependent on infrastructure it should be good till some time but excess can cause trouble
Spending money you don't have on things you don't need is a Very Bad Idea at any scale, be it personal or national.
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Completely irrelevant, but these frame-transitions your editor used are SO COOL.
Thank you for the actually good rundown on why deflation can cripple economies used to inflationary policy. The idea that Joe Consumer is smart enough to go "wow due to inflationary policy, the value of my currency is decreasing over time, so I should spend my earnings now" is ridiculous. "Wow, I'm getting a raise every year! I should be good to spend this now" makes a lot more sense.
Finally someone said this.
Yes deflation is horrible. People complain about inflation but they have no idea the alternative is way, way worse. The best case scenario is small inflation (2%-3% inflation) every year.
You are assuming that salaries usually keep up with inflation... oh boy, i have news for you.
@@accordblazewhat's good about your money/savings losing purchasing power at 2/3% annually? What makes this scenario the best?
@@daniloacc92 its still better than a deflation scenario. Google up on it.
Re deflation: another issues with it is that if prices are dropping there is an incentive to make purchases as late as possible to get the best price possible. The end consumer can gain by deferring basically anything they can put off till later. And this is also true at every stage of the logistics pipeline where stockpiles, even of durable goods, lose value relative to cash holdings. This means that (at least temporarily) demand for production can be lower than even depressed consumption rates as stockpiles may intentionally be allowed to run down.
Good points.
easiest solution to deflation? Run the money printers and just bail out debtors
@@hughmungus2760 easy != equal or equitable. -- Bailing out debtors helps them at the expense of people who don't have debts. That might encourage people to go even more into debt.Bailing out debtors helps them at the expense of people who don't have debts. That might encourage people to go even more into debt.
What might actually work better would be for the state (in the US, the Fed) to offer low rate loans for refinancing of (only?) existing debts. At a minimum, that moves the interest payment costs in a good direction relative to GDP. But I suspect even that just pushes things down the road if you can't resolve the foundational issues that created the problems in the first place.
Has any country suffered an economic catastrophe due to deflation? Everyone always says its bad but has it ever happened? We have Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Germany, and the US to show that inflation is bad, but has deflation every been proven to be bad? Humans cant stop spending because they will starve to death. For the same reason humans dont perceive inflation until many years later, they wont see deflation either.
Could you please but a list of your sources in your videos. Thanks and I enjoy watching your content.
Look for em yourself
This is the first channel ever where I can’t watch the videos in full due to the speakers way of talking. The way he draws out EVERY end of a sentence is borderline psychological terror! I’m not sure whether it’s on purpose to sound more professor-like or whether he just got a very bad habit that he does not think about himself, but it’s driving me insane! Some of the videos have interesting topics so if I really want to watch it all I’ve started to mute the sound and just read the subtitles. 😂🤯
Literally the first one Evaaahh... AI would have been bettaaah
For some reason economists tend to forget one of the most important factors determining economic growth, demographics. A big part of China's economic growth was caused by a what is referred to as a demographic dividend. This occurs when a larger than normal cohort reaches their prime years of productivity. China had a baby boom from 1963 to around 1970, which gave them a large and highly productive workforce in the 1990s and 2000s, however those people are now reaching the end of their working lives. This would not be a problem except that the following generations are smaller than the one now reaching retirement age. This means that not only is China's population now decreasing, it's workforce is decreasing even faster. With a decreasing workforce the only way to increase GDP is to improve productivity, but that requires investment ether through borrowing, where China is close to maxed out, or through foreign investment, which current international relations and China's investor unfriendly government make unlikely. This will inevitably lead to very slow growth, likely negative growth when inflation is accounted for.
Anyone would could have done a modest amount of research and realized it was a massive ponzi scheme, 20 years ago. Conservatives were just too ignorant about China and were too lazy to learn the details that actually mattered. Liberals were high on the fantasy of a socialist economy(yes an economy with a market heavily controlled by the state is exactly the end game of "democratic socialist". Reality is there were plenty of people who knew the whole thing was nothing but a scam, but they were effectively silenced by Liberals. Liberals love pushing economic fantasies, it's still an ongoing problem with our immigration policies.
It's also cultural. The same people that you're speaking are the ones who work in factories etc. Younger generation all go to university now and with the advent of social media, they don't want do such jobs which made China do so well in the first place. It's all a mess in China gg
They can import foreign workers. But they need to crack down on those fake food many foreigners detest.
@@ronnelacido1711 Smaller counties can bring in foreign workers to make up for a shortage, but due to its size that would be very difficult for China.
@@dixonhill1108 '...a market heavily controlled by the state is exactly the end game of "democratic socialist".' - That seems to be contradicted by the actions of all western nations. No mater how Liberal none of them have taken any steps gain more direct control over their economies, and with the exception of environmental regulations there have been no attempts at greater indirect control.
As for immigration, most western nations have the same demographic problem China does, a declining population with a work force that is in even greater decline. Ideally steps should have been taken 30 years ago to increase birthrates, but that was not done. So now it is either accept very slow economic growth, or maintain the workforce via immigration.
This is a great and insightful video but I feel kinda dizzy with all the camera pan cut
There's also the estimated 300m pensioners by the end of this decade. Guess who pays for pensions? Not the central government.
I’ve heard absolutely terrible things about “Better Health” and it’s disappointing they paid you off, morally there’s no reason to support such a money hungry company taking advantage of, then disregarding mental health.
This of course also depends on if the GDP numbers and amount of debt are accurate, which is unlikely. One further thing, in a rush to grow and profit there was little regulation. This resulted in a lot of substandard buildings and infrastructure being produced. So all that debt for buildings and infrastructure that won't survive as long as that in many other countries.
Then there's also the stated GDP itself. A study on light emissions suggested that China's gdp is 40% smaller then it's relative democratic nations. And this is ture for all countries with low democratic indexes.
So either totalitarian states produce less light on avrage compared to free nations. Or they are lying about thier gdp figures .....
"in a rush to grow and profit there was little regulation" - lol you don't know China much, do you? One of only two regions of the world (the other being the EU) to already have a bunch of laws regarding AI is somehow a land of 'little regulation'? Yeah no, China loves regulation, perhaps too much. Their infrastructure is also all new, unlike the US'. This is entirely just you speculating, likely off some Serpentza or China Uncensored vid. If China's infrastructure was so bad, it wouldn't be the foremost infrastructure builder in the world - not just for infrastructure in China, but around the world. Unless you want to claim ALL of those countries infrastructure is also bad - which directly contradicts what you just said
@@allliquid6320 That study was literally covered on this very channel. And EE wasn't a fan. It's a back of the envelope estimate that leaves a lot of room for error. Their GDP may be smaller, but that 40% figure is LOT more precise sounding than it is. The literal author of the study himself cautioned against using it as a proxy for GDP, not that the media cared.
@ArawnOfAnnwn my guess, puts it at a 25% tho it could be as small as 15%. Either way it still does not look good for the CCP.
@ArawnOfAnnwn but yes I am aware that it was coverd by EE. Also watched it and an other statics channel that focuses on population statistics.
According to CZcams videos, China's economy collapse about 81 times a day in the past 15 years.
*checks screen name*
BOYS! BOYS! We found an Chinese bot in the wild!
@@craftsmanceramics8653 He is right though. We should stop coping.
@@amodmishra3030 coping with what? Read some geopolitics, China is screwed. Go listen to Peter Zehan or Joe Blogs to learn all about the new and fantastic ways China has managed to screw itself this time!
@@amodmishra3030Lots of people cope about China and get views, but this channel specifically addressed those people last year as wrong. It’s not like we’re seeing a collapse here, but a readjustment of expectations from high growth to a much lower growth rate.
@@craftsmanceramics8653it's true, I read a magazine about how India rivals China in 2004 and look at it now. Enough said, just cope that China is doing just fine.
Is it true that deflation is a 'headwind' for the amount of loan outstanding, over the long haul? That is... it doesn't get 'inflated away' into a smaller relative value over time, while incomes typically rise over time.
Did he just say that the United States debt is nothing to worry about?
China, unlike Japan, which happened similar problems 40 yrs ago, might end up being a lot worse. First, China has virtually no government provided welfare projects and will likely not have any due to its political environment. That leads to excessive household saving just in case something bad was to happen. Secondly, the elite class has very little trust in government, the first thing they do when they get rich is to find a loophole in China’s foreign exchange regulations and move their money abroad. And corporate leaders had been using their companies’ foreign investments as a way to exploit the loopholes, thus a lot of Chinese invested assets abroad are not profitable, most of them are shell corporations. Thirdly, the self conflicting ideology is starting to lose control. CCP self claims to be communist but they created one of largest wealth gap and provide virtually no social security, so they resort to nationalism. But this requires it to took a hard line approach on Taiwan, which in return worsens economy. Last, China’s demographic collapse will be the worse modern history, their birth rate effectively halved in less than a decade. And in 10 to 15 yrs, their largest population bulge will face retirement, over 200m people will be out of work force. This will effectively strangle China’s economy for the next century.
Soylent Green is People!
Return to the ancient Chinese tradition of mass cannibalism.
I wish I was only joking with this guess.
@@Kyryyn_Lyyhnot needed. Today you can replace the workforce with robots. And China has got all it needs to do it. And it still has people being unemployed.
cant agree more as a chinese
You can't predict a time span of 80 years. China might as well take over the world by 2100.
don't worry about China. Their debt to gdp is still way, way lower than the US and many other Western nations. Worry about yourselves. The population bulge problem is a problem faced by ALL Western nations. And literally everything in your comment can be replaced with "American" and it would still make complete sense. As I said, worry about yourselves.
Also factor the fact the CCP will never provid you with accurate economic data unless it will show China in good terms. This is a well known fact and their strict covid policy have devastated their economy for good but would never admit that they failed.
You should check out China Beige Book.
thank you
China sees economy grow 4.9% in third quarter, beating expectations.
so they say, so they always say, but the reality is no one knows on any level because all the aggregate numbers are made up...
Now when you mention Amazons *APL66K* that clearly fits the niche and is worth more than ever? Their project is probably the best thing done in the 2000-years and it just began, so nothing to worry at all for longterm
What is this? Spam?
CZcams is a joke, they should be able to clean up spam like this easily but they choose not to.
Look at the amount of likes in just a few mins…
Silence, bot .
Spamming scum.
Does anybody in China live in individual homes? All you see is apartment blocks that go on forever.
It has been a few decades now that Nuclear Fusion is just 50 years away
I feel that this video topic is the economic's version of that
8:05 The population drop wasn't from a war, but a famine.
Deflation can be so much worse than inflation. If you're effectively giving money away by making purchases now instead of waiting as long as possible, then everyone from consumers to companies are incentivized to not purchase, or wait as long as possible to purchase. This can grind the economy to a halt. Added to this, all debt and repayments get worse when deflation increases the dollar value of your debt and repayments more and more every month, possibly making some debt unassailable. The deflation might be the scariest villain on the list, even if it's just a symptom of other illnesses, because it's what can kill the patient the fastest.
This is when central banks generally start printing money.
@@Pushing_Pixelsthis is what most people believe. "Printing money" is the only job the central bank has. It does it all the time when money is demanded.
Deflation means: nobody wants this money.
@@ThomasVWorm Deflation means people are hoarding money. Printing money is inflationary. It offsets deflation and, if used correctly, can also provide other benefits to the economy. The trick is using the money well and knowing when to stop.
@@Pushing_Pixels I don't see why "printing money" should be inflationary, when banks print money all the time.
The money, which is hoarded in a deflation needs to "printed" too. Without there is nothing, which can be hoarded.
And in order to "print money" banks do need people asking for a loan. Without they will not "print money" nor will the central bank.
But why should people, who already do hoard money, ask for loans? And even if somebody loans money, why should the hoarder stop hoarding it? And when the hoarders hold back the money, how do those, who got the loans, repay them? And when they fail, why should anybody else ask for loans, which make banks and the central bank "print money"?
Debtors are those, who do print money, not banks.
@@ThomasVWormbecause the more of the money that is printed the less valuable it is that’s high school economics
China invested in infrastructure to keep people artificially employed. Because of that, what was built often wasn't needed and of extremely poor quality which is coming home to roost with infrastructure falling apart after a few years or it having taken the money and never actually built it (i.e. Drains that don't lead anywhere or or just laid on the ground).
Unlike other countries the CCP never built up the internal, value-add economy, instead using its people as simply eyes and fingers to assemble products built with foreign capital, materials, equipment, technology and expertise to be shipped to foreign markets, protected by foreign warships while antagonizing their local neighbors and those whom they are dependent on for all those fore-amentioned inputs and markets.
Now they're getting everything they demanded and discovering they're not a superpower by any stretch of the imagination without globalization to back them up. Ugly times ahead.
No value-add in China? Lol. The literally lead in EVs, telecommunications, AI and can now make 7nm chips ffs you're living in dreamland
🎉🎉🎉wait and see what happens in the future.
My favourite bit was every time you said "better" or "ever"'at the end of a sentence.
This channel is literally so good.
As opposed to being figuratively good?
@@SKa-tt9nm more opposed to being theoretically good but falling short 🙃
That spinning transition effect is motion-sickness inducing.
Would love to see a video of yours on Brazil's defying economic growth projections for the last couple of years. From an initially projected 1.7% growth this year to an actual 3.1% growth, econometrics are having a hard time explaining the economy of Brazil.
It’s because they don’t understand the impact of rate rises and use monetarist assumptions - rate rises increase interest income as well - when you jack up rates peoples bank balances rise supporting demand. The non-government sector is a net saver of financial assets, which means the overall effect of a rate rise is more likely stimulatory rather than contractionary. The historical tendency of businesses to experience massive crippling cost of debt crises in the face of rapid rate rises (like in 1980, mid 2000s, or early 90s) isn’t happening because businesses are significantly deleveraged, and are able to pass on cost increases to consumers because of the market power they were shown to have in the early stages of the Ukraine war inflationary crisis - which is why a credit crisis hasnt emerged yet
It used to take one year for Brazil to export $1bn to China and now it takes 60hrs. I fear for Brazil if China collapses as this video predicts. Fortunately, this is unlikely to happen. Still we are all connected.
@@tannhaeuserx464 I think Brazil has a varied enough economy so that it wouldn't collapse alongside china. Also, Brazil has a great known how in engineering and companies like Embraer and WEG are increasing its markets abroad. Embraer latest military plane, the C-390, is taking market segment away from Lockheed Martin's C-130. And WEG is a electric motor company which probably has the best shares of any Brazilian company, as they report constant growth for a long time now. They even partnered with SpaceX for an oxygen production facility, and hopefully they will become more prevalent in the electric car motor market as well.
@@tannhaeuserx464 Well, luckily capitalism, while it didn't cause China's problems can save Brazil from its potential future problems. If they have a surplus of goods and need a market, people will buy on the cheap.
China is screwed, let's not pretend otherwise. The rest of the world will simply adjust as it always has.
Is 3.1% considered good for a developing country like Brazil?
That 'flying over a textured plane' transition is incredibly distracting.
I often wonder how much iron ore revenues over the last 30 years has Australia profited from? If that ore demand was not from China, and just relied on Japanese importers, how would Australia have faired? I would love a story on the economic iron ore success story of Australia.
Hes allready done a video on australias natural resources.
Its called "the dirty little ecconomyn of australia" I think.
@@Newbmann Basically more propaganda dressed up as economic analysis, nothing new 😄
China replaced Japanese manufacturing. There will always be a world factory to manufacturer all the things people need, one country or another.
@@serena-yu Always is a LONG time. Eventually the world will run out of peasants. Perhaps automation and robots will take over then? Globalism is facing strong head winds. More and more countries are reshoring or friend shoring critical production.
Australia heavily depends on China.
I notice that you compared the US federal debt, which is proportionally larger than the chinese federal debt, to the entire chinese debt load? What about US state, county, business and individual debt?
I think your content is great.
20 years ago, some people said that the Chinese economy was about to collapse，but it seems that China did not follow their script🤣🤣
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China now has to grapple with competition for their industries. Manufacturing in the USA is growing, reducing long-term foreign dependency. Mexico and India are experiencing strong manufacturing growth, and have a higher percentage of their population in the prime age region. The headwinds for China are mounting, and their false number reporting is likely hiding a more severe crisis than the rest of the world is seeing.
Hahahah😅😅😅....do you live in india u don't know what your talking about
@@baikeiast5255+$0.50
India-Mexico-Vietnam-Indoneia will takeover huge manufacturing from China in the next decades. It's already happening as we speak Apple, Samsung, Panasonic, Daikin, Suzuki, Foxconn, LG all shifting outside of China.
China's forced to compete in the high-tech sector.
But, losing to ASML, TSMC, Samsung, Tokyo Electron, NVIDIA....also Canon Nanoimprinting from Japan just gave the West another Semiconductor Edge.
BYD & CATL are China' last hope. but, it looks like EU/US/JP will tariff Chinese EVs due to dumping allegations.
Toyota/Panasonic Solid State Battery with IDEMITSU & LG/SAMSUNG Solid State Batteries will be the preferred Battery choice in the long term in developed countries.
So, BYD & CATL will face huge competition in a couple years to secure battery customers.
Commenter Iberhold is very correct.@@baikeiast5255
@@baikeiast5255I live in india
What you want say
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
The issue with China's reduction in growth is that it starts out with the engine of the Chinese economy.
That "engine" is made up of exports and consumer spending.
If you remove any part of the engine the vehicle will keep on rolling, but eventually slow to a halt.
Most of China's GDP is fueled by exports and consumer spending.
So if consumers stop taking loans and stop buying consumer products you remove the foundation.
Same goes if you remove exports.
China spent the last few decades playing catch up, and I think it was the correct policy.
It only seems to have recently occurred to them that they're in a new phase, and that it's no longer just a question of continuous construction and GDP growth.
I'm not someone with any sort of grasp on economics, so please don't ask me to explain further than that.
They never had a micro economics phase and authoritarian govts like the CCP are never going to allow the entrepreneur to outshine their macro models.
It's correct, economies have a catching up growth stage and cutting edge stage.
In catching up stage, they have no much need for innovation, as they rely on tech from advanced countries, its the place where most global south and some asian countries are like India.
During this stage there is rapid economic growth. Expect higher economic growth rates from them.
After that, the cutting edge stage, where innovation drives economic growth, I think China is simply transitioning to this stage, so expect more innovation from China. Developed countries, The West , US, Japan, S Korea, etc, are in this stage, the major driver for economic growth is Innovation.
Chna may be in an eternal recession like Japan has. But Japan has friends like the US it can rely on. China is more aggressive and doesn't want to rely on anyone for anything. But that is not realistic for China. China may never be able to escape the middle income trap.
That same US that backstabbed their "friend" in the 80s and paved the way for Japan's lost decade in red carpet? 😂
@@seashellbeesaveres7951+$0.50
@@seashellbeesaveres7951India-Mexico-Vietnam-Indoneia will takeover huge manufacturing from China in the next decades. It's already happening as we speak Apple, Samsung, Panasonic, Daikin, Suzuki, Foxconn, LG all shifting outside of China.
China's forced to compete in the high-tech sector.
But, losing to ASML, TSMC, Samsung, Tokyo Electron, NVIDIA....also Canon Nanoimprinting from Japan just gave the West another Semiconductor Edge.
BYD & CATL are China' last hope. but, it looks like EU/US/JP will tariff Chinese EVs due to dumping allegations.
Toyota/Panasonic Solid State Battery with IDEMITSU & LG/SAMSUNG Solid State Batteries will be the preferred Battery choice in the long term in developed countries.
So, BYD & CATL will face huge competition in a couple years to secure battery customers.
@@seashellbeesaveres7951 That same US who is Japan's friend and ally. Things change for democratic countries. Nothing will change for China and you're witnessing it in spectacular fashion. Get used to it buddy, it's going to get worse for them. Japan may have floundered but they are thriving now and will regain their place eventually to being the second biggest economy on the globe.
@@Fleshox19-uz3qtlike how😂😂😂😂in your dreams???😂😂😂😂
The map at 0:09 is hard to understand since you don't show where Hong Kong is. It also seems that you have switched "inner" and "outer."
It is funny that so many people who have never set a food on China and know China only from their MSM are happy or worrying about China's economic problems here.
I think an important factor that was not given enough attention is that we've never had solid numbers from the source about China's GDP growth. Anyone with a brain treated the numbers with a healthy bit of skepticism, but they were usually high enough even with that factored in, the numbers were still amazing. So what is worrying is if the numbers we are seeing now are low, the actual numbers may be downright alarming.
Imf taks about it. World banks does it. Lots of western entities publish it. What more do you want? . You have to seek for it as the western media ignores or sweeps it under the rug.
You're being fed to much with bogus propaganda with ulterior motive and not genuine research with lots of understanding
It is not so much that GDP numbers were 'fake' but that the activity on which they are based adds no real value, just very large scale versions of paying a man to dig holes and another to fill them in.
Does China even need to be measured on the same scale as other economies in terms of percentage of population that's in the middle class? Does it even matter if most of the population still lives in poverty if their middle class is now possibly the largest in the world? When you have billions of people, does the same analysis truly apply?
I think the way they are coming at it is that China still has a lot of potential to grow since poverty is all up potentially. Its harder to grow the middle class. So the size does not matter as much as the potential growth
Not true that most of the population is in poverty. Even in small country towns they live decent lives on the income they make. Even if they don’t have all the modern comforts, other quality of life is still there. Here in Sydney, if I don’t bring home more than $1000 AUD a week. I can’t own a house and would be living pay to pay.
@@user-vl3ip7ed9u Li Keqiang, the late former Premier of China, said differently.
@EconomicsExplained serious question as a person with an economics major, is the philosophy of infinite growth is the only taught standard? Reason I'm asking is that I don't understand why every person in the world who has an economics major pushes the notion that growth beyond anything is good (looking at the media in general) which I seriously question. I mean when you think about it money is a contract form of debt or value depending how you've created it and it seems the generated money in the present is seriously questioning is it really value being added into the economy?
The inflexion at the end of your sentences is wild
I have been hearing the fall of Chinese economy for the last years.
China will fall some day. It already did in the past. After more than 2000 years. So why shouldn't it happen again? So we will have to live with such predictions for the next thousands of years.
Please do a video on China corruption, because all these numbers don't make sense without corruption.
they talked about it a lot in the video. he even showed clips of lies
Since 2012, 4.089 million people involved in corruption have been investigated and dealt with.
Those people who are claiming the infrastructure in china not getting used, I wonder where did they get this info? Have you ever been to China and see how crowded the trains/metros/roads…?
have u been to china to see ghost towns?
What I’ve noticed about bubbles is you generally know they are going to pop for quite awhile beforehand but the uncertainty of how long it will take makes the information almost useless.
In my viewpoint, China's economic growth may not reach that mark in the foreseeable future gdp. Nevertheless, its economic resilience and a degree of self-reliance stem from extensive manufacturing capabilities and a distinct domestic internet infrastructure. However, the challenges surrounding chip production may impede China's comprehensive development.
true
yes
Domestic market is limited as well. Other than the affluent in major cities like my hometown of Shanghai, most people just don't have much disposable income, and Chinese are frugal by nature, which is why consumers spending only account for a third of GDP. Now that stupid one child policy bas lead to a population decline, the economy is hurting. Even the government is running out of money to pay people's retirement pensions, so government jobs are getting paycuts.
Much of that manufacturing is dependent upon exports. With other countries reshoring or looking to elsewhere in SE Asia, it's going to at least put a dent in their growth.
Nope. Huawei already has 7nm and america limiting nvidia gpus will speed it up
No discussion of Chinese real estate is complete without at least MENTIONING, tofu dreg building practices. Tofu dreg along with corruption was completely ignored. Even though you can't specifically characterize these issues, you should have at least touched on them as potential factors in Real Estate crumbling, which as you stated, was the major investment strategy for everyday Chinese.
13:26 they mentioned it
"Tofu dreg" is an overused phrase coined by Falun Gong owned channels.
The chart shown at 1:04 seems to be either incomplete or has the incorrect unit of measure for the 'Y' axis. The two lines purport to show that those living on $2.30 and $5.50 per day, have diminished over ~17 years. Given that the population has steadily increased, the decrease in poverty levels of income would be measure on the 'Y' axis as a percentage of the population. However, the 'Y' axis is labeled in dollars. Furthermore, the lower (yellow) line has dropped from ~$50 in 2002 to ~$3 by 2019. This does not make sense. I doubt the World Bank posted this as-is. There is likely supplemental material which provides enough context for this to make sense. That material is missing here.