Is Toyota Crazy Or Can Hybrids Save The ICE? - Autoline After Hours 627
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- čas přidán 14. 12. 2022
- GUEST:
- Jordan Choby, VP of Powertrain Control, Toyota Motor North America
TOPICS:
- Can Toyota Reach Its Goals with Hybrids?
- Will Fuel Cells Really Catch On?
- Cheap EVs Could Overtake China
- EPA Auto Trends Report is Misleading
- Fusion Breakthrough Could Be Game Changer for EVs & FCEVs
PANEL:
- Tom Murphy, Autoweek
- Gray Vasilash, on Automotive
- John McElroy, Autoline.tv
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Don't knock Tesla FSD (on my son's Model 3) until you try it!!!. Yes there are disengagements occasionally, but how else will the programmers learn to make corrections without actual road data? It has improved greatly since it was introduced. Look at it this way... when you learned to drive at age 15-16, were you a perfect driver right away? NO, you have to learn as you go and you had to do it on the road. Am I still a better driver at age 69 than FSD? I believe I am, but it does not keep me from trying it in certain situations to provide feedback and keep improving the system. I have become more comfortable with it as it improves.
I can’t believe these guys talked about hydrogen with a straight face.
Agreed 😂
only way i see hybrid-car/simi hydrogen working is fuel-cell and liquid form tanks as fuel-staton's to start the revolution aren't generally setup for gas's so m100 is a starting point and it's for heavy user's as battery's are to heavy and bulky and kanda $$ for more than 50-100KWH-pack for now may change with time
as cool as it sounds to run pure-H in a ICE it's not at all practical way to many problems with it or at least i didn't see a pathway's to solve it , as i research it for older 60's car's/my car to stay on the road if gasoline/liquid/Carbon got banned in the 🇺🇸
I am sure you youtube engineers know way more then this guy!
@@brunoheggli2888 doesnt take an engineer to understand that you have to spend a lot of energy either pressurizing or cooling the gas down to ridiculous numbers to make it usable. This not only costs a lot of energy but also makes the "pump station" extremely expensive. And thats just one issue with it. Also doesnt take a big brain to understand that its hard to get other than as a by produtc from fossile fuel production, which is obviously anything but green, so it completely misses the whole point of it.
@@fetB Its still not bad for ships and Trucks where you have high loads!
Disappointed that Gary and John did not compare the FSD and Waymo correctly. The FSD system is being used by over 100,000 users across the United States. Waymo is a dozen or so vehicles in geofenced areas that they have mapped. This is like comparing a baseball player using a tiny field to hit balls off a tee versus a player playing professional games, with real pitchers, in real large stadiums across the nation. This story seems way blown out of proportion.
Tesla has adder many more drivers into the FSD beta program. You are bound to see averages drop with new people in the mix. Newer drivers are more likely to jerk at bthe wheel which triggers disengagement. Given the miles driven with FSD and the size of area it covers, it is something Waymo cannot touch and a good chance FSD is already safer than the average human driver.
The stock price drop is funny to see reporters focus on when Ford and GM is down 45% since January, VW is down 30%. All three if those companies have massive debts and tons of recalls. Most of Tesla has had was software updates done over the air. Something VW, GM, and Ford cannot do for most of their recalls.
Tom's comment he would not trust Musk with his life is just ignoring how bad human drivers are and that we are heading towards a real solution.
yep, I have FSD and for some reason it seems to get better over time, and it would easily handle those waymo routes. Just bought a couple more shares @ $156, not because of FSD but because they are way ahead in production and auto technology. It's reminiscent of 2017-18 except some automakers are taking it serious now.
@@zaphodbeeblebrox2817 Tesla is ahead in technology and makes the best cars right now, but Musk is destroying the brand. I don't see how Tesla can continue to be successful unless they dump him, at this point.
@@TheHonestBroker yes, I’m glad Tesla became a mature company before Elon went nuts
self driving function's DOT has numbers on and vs most humans is safer and yes it bugs me but as far as i know its the fact's not how i vibe checked out of bed in the morning, one of the investment videos for simi's-truck's showed past fog/snow/rain aka i would have been off the road way back there and even the pureficed condition's it still out see me by about 3 miles giving more time for it to drive vs me at 60-85MPH, one part it wasn't good yet at it telling low flying aircraft or lightning or other's passing getting there just needs some tuning
now it would help if trailer's were redesigned for solar and bi-directshionly with the cab and had shore power equipment installed as 3X-diesel engines seam's a little silliness
FSD Beta is now being used by 285,000 in the latest reports.
I do not believe Tom is paying attention to commercial level battery backup systems that have been rolled out and have been ordered. These replace coal power plants, because many are just peaked power plants used to stabilize grids.
Not only does battery backup stabilize a grid, but wind and solar power can be kept there as well. One of the states in Australia, I believe Victoria, had a day where they were running on solar foe the day and they have battery backup and electricity trading platform so residents can trade power.
The ramp up of green technology is going to make the world much different by 2030. BYD and CATL will both be using sodium mix batteries on their vehicles in 2023. These have four times energy density and thirty percent lower costs is what I recall them claiming. If true, this will cause a massive shift in the industry.
I also believe Tom over estimates consumers knowledge of what engines are the newest tech and what is just the same old. Toyota is a masterclass example of basically rolling over older tech just in skin. The Camry or Corolla rarely has anything cutting edge in them. People buy them because of Toyota's rep for reliability. They are not popping the hood to see if the latest engine tech is under the hood.
It's a race to see which happens first: Current Toyota leadership retires, or Toyota goes bankrupt.
Nope your high or what!? You think Toyota put all their eggs in the same bucket!?
Agree, Toyota thanks to Mr Toyoda will be going out of business except in Japan…the most anti-ev along with Exxon-Mobile. Don’t buy their products!
Toyota will be bought by BYD, mark my words
Toyota will be bought by BYD, mark my words
@@phileasler5401 nonsense!!!! Most Anty -Ev! Where!? Have you lost your mind!? Tell me why almost 1/4 if Toyota are hybrids! Stfu!!!! You mean You’ll be going out of business right!
Have any of you used FSD over consistatly over a couple of months?
FSD beta over the last year has improved qualitatively. A lot of interventions are from a few non-safety issues where the car drives in ways the human driver chooses to override. For me it is mostly lane selection. FSD is still a level 2 human controlled system, so by definition no one has been harmed by FSD, only negligent drivers.
Guys FSD Beta is for City Streets not highway like the other systems, I think only in the last few weeks the highway stack was ported to FSD.
By the looks of it they are way behind the eight ball on BEV. They are throwing anything they can to see if it sticks to the wall.
No they are the best!
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
Nobody in Toyota land advertises the maintenance time and costs against BEV's, extra complexity and oil changes, pressure fluids, transmissions etc
A PHEV engine can, depending on the driver and driving routes, be serviced much less often. We service our PHEV once a year. It's a good trade off to have short refuel times on long trips.
When you pay a little attention to a Prius they tend to have minimal long term maintenance costs. Toyota actually does get that news out. An issue with the new Prius is whether dealer markups will make it as costly as some Teslas.
@@johndonaldson5126
👍 can vouch: Our i3 REx does 95% of annual mileage on electric only:
-24,000 miles × 5% = 1,200 miles on the ICE for yearly servicing (2.6 qts oil + filter).
People claim PHEVs are complex; What's truly complex, though, is rearranging life around a BEV's charging need on road trips.
@@donswier Wife has the i3Rex I have a Model S. She tells me the other day "I have to drive a BMW because I can't afford a Tesla." The i3 has zero positive attributes vs a Tesla. That thing is only worse at things and never better at anything. Range is bullshit with the gas motor not able to keep up if you are doing over 45mph. The maintenance is outrageous that it even needs oil changes with how little its used.
There no reason to buy anything that run on gas. Not a car, not a truck, not a semi, not even a lawnmower. Nothing.
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
The discussion around Tesla at 34min is embarrassingly poorly informed
Tesla is going to be fine but they were way over hyped and over priced on Wall Street so this is just a correction accelerated by his nonsense with Twitter.
If Japanese auto makers lose America, they will be in trouble. I say this as someone who has bought 10 cars and 8 were Hondas. Right now, it looks like the affair has come to an end.
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
@@electrictroy2010 Yes Toyota still sells the most last few years but they are also in large debt position. That could be tho due to putting lots of $$$ in research for future, whether EV or FCEV or ICE with high MPG.
With respect to efficieny:
Driving my 2009 Prius now to 316.000 km still able to achieve excellent mileage: full tank 45 liters amounts to about 450 kWh (depending on the source used for that conversion) brings me to 750+km. However a tesla Y LR gets about 500 km on a 70kWh.
My Tesla has proven ultra reliable and very low maintenance, but in the end ICE requires more maintenance electrical motor. The difference in moving parts and heat and vibration is inherently too big.
after watching this interview, I am so much less excited about Toyota
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
how about an episode with Cummins on the long saga of the Achates engine, which is one of the only new engine types in decades to reach even pilot production. It is used in the Army advanced vehicle. It's an amazing engine, very clever, and fairly simple. So it does work.
Cummins is still considering the Achates ? That's good news
Imagine it would make a good range extender.
Cruze and Waymo is hard coded 100 square km self driving against FSD working all over USA and Canada
Tom please back that up that people dying from full self driving.
And subtract the lives saved. I was watching a guy who was kind of tring to make a slightly negative FSD video. He finished the video by showing how aware the car was of the cars and people. It was crazy. Nobody has this kind of instant awareness. At least I don't
I used to deliver trailer sailboats (15’-19’) 3-4 @ a time. A 58’ slope deck pulled by a Dodge/Cummins. Drop them @ the owners and wind up in Florida to pick up 4 RIBs/back to Ca. I did this once a month, drove 5,500-6,500 miles, delivered boats locally in Ca. till time to take the next batch. I think a hybrid might have worked for me.
How does the profitability of the Hummer EV compare to ICE Silverado? How does profitability of F150 Lightning compare to ICE F150? I would guess the ICE vehicles will pay the bills for many years to come.
Yeah until Ford and GM learn to make easy to manufacture cars and trucks they will struggle with EVs. Tesla is moving further ahead as they try to catch up. It is easier to start from scratch then overcome the ICE baggage.
John, can you share that powerpoint on H please?
Was just listening to this and had to laugh about GM being ahead on EVs. Just heard that Hummer and lyriq's sales were just over 1,000 for all of 2022. Hummer production started in 2021 and lyriq started in March. FYI March is when Tesla started in Texas and they have exceeded over 3,000 per week! Less than 300 Cadillac lyriq sales in 2022 vs 3,000/week for Tesla. Doesn't really sound like they're catching up.
By April, there will be a CEO for Twitter to take over day to day operations. Hard to say Tesla is struggling with 40%+ YOY growth in sales and 90% growth in profit.
Tesla's market cap dropped 1/2 trilliion dollars in 2021. What's up with Tesla investors?
I used to help out a Shenzhen company with their FSD developement, in some point earlier this year they got bought out or something all the guys kinda dissapperaed. Now I got xmas greetings from one of the team members who is now working in the US on the same kind of project "not Tesla that all I can say." His message was:"If you take all of the FSD cars from different manufacturers and drop them randomly in different cities and roads, and let them drive they will all crash. But Tesla will survive the longest and most likely will not even crash. Tesla FSD still needs a lot of training and there will be accidents after the beta is open to the general public and not just professional beta testers. Our system is in use in China and it works fine but only on a specific routes. That's actually enough, it fills the need, but that's how far it will ever go. There is a limit what the system can do without AI, it cannot predict and reflect."
Good explanation. Tesla FSD has been open to non professional drivers for quite a while. Recently opened to anyone who wants it.
It's important to remember that a Prius hybrid is not an electric car by any stretch of the imagination. The car has an ICE, runs on gas, and only rarely uses just EV mode. Yes it has a small battery so it would take one BEV car worth of battery to build five Prius hybrids. But those who desire to fight climate change want zero emissions, not just less emissions.
Five 13.6 kWh battery-packs for PHEV would indeed equate to one 68 kWh BEV, but that invalidates the claim of "not an electric car by any stretch of the imagination". Toyota's current generation already delivers 25 miles of all-electric driving, complete with heat-pump. The upgrade for 2023 will bump range to at least 38 miles of all-electric driving. How is that not any electric car? It provides enough EV range to cover the average commute. No gas driving is the point of a BEV. So what if the car also has an ICE for backup power when plug-supplied electricity runs out.
The Prius Prime can operate for almost 40 miles on only the battery, yet can travel 675 miles without stopping for fuel. It only has a 11.9 gallon tank - most Prius owners won't be buying a lot of gasoline.
The causual agent for atmospheric warming isn't CO2 - a trace gas without significant mass. The climate models depend upon "feedback" to transfer ephemeral heat from CO2 molecues to water molecules. The physics of the feedback models can't be tested, otherwise a Nobel Prize would be awarded by now. Carbon is the 3rd leading element in the human body - its not a toxin. Adults emit about 2 pounds of CO2 each day. A classroom or movie theater has high levels of CO2 and it doesn't make anyone sick.
@@timothykeith1367 have you actually seen a person retain high levels of CO2? They're confused and delirious and can die if not reversed with a ventilator.
BTW, someone, Svante Arrhenius, did win a Nobel prize in chemistry for atmospheric CO2 increasing heat with a novel instrument, xray, back in 1903.
@@GG-si7fw Svante Arrhenius is a distant relative to the nut Greta Thunberg . He also claimed that the relation of CO2 to warming was logarithmic - the concentrat would have to double to increse 1 C. We're a long way from 800 ppm. Oceans absorb much of the CO2 - its a good thing too, because if that didn't happen the oceans would be as caustic as household cleaning ammonia. Submariners are exposed to 2000 - 5000 ppm of CO2 and don't suffer ill effects. At 415 ppm there is no risk to people. Due to rising costs of coal, NG and petroleum the consumption will likely never be sufficient to cause doubling of CO2 - which might warm the atmosphere 3/4 C degree - if other effects like cooling from clouds don't cancel most of the potential warming.
@@john1701a That 25 miles of all electric is the Prius Prime which is a PHEV. I'm all in favor for PHEVs. But the Prius I was talking about is the standard hybrid which does not have any significant EV range.
Was hoping to hear more about SSB. Disappointed in the lack of news.
Telsa is gonna expode in sales after Jan. 1st. With the huge Tax Rebate!
Lol….. with people unable to afford!!!
Jordan, Toyota should be talking to the customers not the industry. We know the dealers do not want EVs!
When the cost of charging is approaching the cost of fueling, suddenly high efficiency HEVs don't look so bad to the consumer. You can bet that the charging cost will go up proportional to the number of BEVs being produced in the future in an already saturated electric grid.
Great show. Many , many question and strategies still way,way up in the air.
“GM is in the lead” John!!!! Come on man, where is the lyric? They had to recall all their bolts… again. For fire risk… again. I’d have as much confidence in GM delivering as much as you say in 2023 as I do in Tesla robo taxis shipping next year.
How the BZ4x came out so bad? A story for the ages
What Jordan is saying is all the engine research is in Japan and their bet is hybrid. Until customers move orders from Toyota, thats it.
Always wondered why Toyota didn't scale up the Prius-style "Synergy" drivetrain, with bigger electric motors & engine, and drop that in a small pickup truck or even full-size Tundra? Note the Tundra Hybrid uses a 1-motor parallel system. I own a '22 Maverick Hybrid, and it uses a Synergy-like planetary gearset Hybrid drivetrain, which is very similar to what Toyota does in the heavy Sienna Hybrid minivan now (2.5L engine mated to 2 electric motor/generators). Now scale that up to a larger 4L engine, maybe an I6 engine config, and put in the medium-large RAV4 PHEV Li-ion battery for lots of energy & a long burst of extra power, and drop it into a Tundra fullsize pickup, or Tacoma.
The market for hybrids seems to be shrinking. As batteries get better BEVs will snuff them out but for a few cases where there is no charging. All that extra complexity just is not worth it.
Toyota created a V8 hybrid luxury car. It didn’t really sell well, because it was only 3 MPG better than a non hybrid V8
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
S is not selling like hotcakes! where did he get that impression?
Only thing selling like hotcakes are hotcakes. Hotcakes with an impression are called waffles.
Efficency Hydrogen = 20%, Elektro = 80% + Hydrogen is interesting for the fossil fuel industry. 90% of Hydrogen is made by this grey Hydrogen. The cost and infrastructure for green Hydrogen is so imense, that it makes more sense for investements in renewable eneregy with batterie storage. Decetraliced in every home or/and community. Batteries and solar panels like wind turbines are 99% recicyble. The metals for Hydrogenconversion in electricpower are not. And as other example why hydrogen is not viable. You need 18 Trucks to transport and store the same ammount of diesel. And the existing pipelines to no handle the hydrogen. This gas is to corosive to the them. Changing now all pipelines also? So, its already over. Mercedes announced in 2018 it will no longer will invest in this tech in there truckdivision. Hyundai also are leaving this tech in there truckdivision. Batterietech is now in a big swing by huge investments by a lot of companies. From the usa to china. Look a the landscape. Its a shame that so many people and money are/is investing some much time, brainpower and money in hydrogen.
I am excited to see the Vehicle to Grid tech. Ford is running a test with PG&E where the lightings with the huge batteries can power the grid.
Hydrogen is much easier to implement in land locked Japan which is toyotas home country thus the push.
@@howebrad4601 I agree. Have said so with zero traction.
@@howebrad4601 why is Japan land locked? It is an archipelago last I looked.
@@arturosabio4752 well it is a chain of thousands of islands meaning overland transport of goods is either difficult or impossible. Thus they prefer hydrogen which can be produced using several methods right on their soil. They have limited land mass for massive wind and solar installations which would be needed in. Bev world.
Mach E should remain the same physically for the next 10 years. Upgrades galore for sure but like tesla, keep it the same. Also make a premium thunderbird version
DOE's Fusion "breakthrough" will have zero effect on EVs. Actual energy to run the lasers was many times higher than the heat delivered to the reaction. The heat released by fusion was slightly more than the latter, but way less than the former.
- 40 mile range PHEV = 14,600 miles annually on cheap residential electricity.
- Never hostage to public charging when on a long trip
- Battery can be lighter & cheaper since it's not trying to cover every eventuality.
- ICE can be lighter & tuned efficiently for charging duties.
- Add 250 miles range⛽ on occasional long trips in 60 seconds, not 60 minutes.
That's why our family drives PHEV cars.
Only 50% of owners plug them in
@@hoffinger
Gas is 4x more $ per mile than electricity.
Only an idiot would forget to plug in.
We drove 24,000 miles last year using just 25 gallons of gas (+ nightly home charging).
.
I wouldn't be eager to send my wife on a 1,000 mile trip in a "pure" BEV, expecting her to be a sitting duck for 30-360 minutes at public EV chargers late at night.
Here In Europe Phevs are a great option since public charging is often as expensive as filling a gas car. My phev gets charged for the daily run during the early hours on cheap off peak electricity. The ice comes in handy for the long trips when an electric car would be equally expensive to charge.
Toyota and Japan's other auto companies have sadly signed their own death warrant by not responding to the disruptive market that EV's represent. Poor Jordan can't respond any other way and still keep his job.
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
@@electrictroy2010 Yeah but people won't stop making predictions. Toyota are making BEVs now. But they still won't make a lot of them until the time is right.
Tom: the reason the Model S sells so well, is that it is electric. AND the Tesla charging network. It is that simple.
That is true. Just rented a Model Y from Hertz for 3 days. Great way to experience the different Tesla models.
48% BTE from Toyota's SI engines? That seems too high to believe. Only larger diesel engines have reached that level. For the DOE super truck competition participants could not make one-off diesel engines that reached DOE's 55% BTE goal. They had to add waste heat recovery with a steam engine cycle to get to 55%.
Autoweek and naysayers need to ask:
"How many more people die and injured WITHOUT using Tesla FSD beta or Autopilot"
Short term yes, but long term ICEV based on carbon fuels have to go away.
Hydrogen fuel cells!?? Maybe for trucks but NOT passenger cars. A fueling station can only fill up to 70 cars per full. So a truck has to deliver a tank load for 70 cars or less! Just isn't feasible!!
I wish they would stop wasting money on it. Until they have a breakthrough on making the stuff clean at a reasonable price it is a dead end. $1.9 million to put in a fueling station. It is nuts.
@@danharold3087 nonsense!!!! Of course electric cars didn’t just appear from nowhere! The only problem of hydrogen powertrain now is the storage, if we come out with a better much simpler way of doing it it’s going to the most important innovation ever made.
@@danharold3087 imagine hydrogen powered trucks that does 3000 miles just like diesels, or aircrafts that goes even further….. same with energy storage which batteries can’t compete.
@@danharold3087 with hydrogen we could store more and even longer and much bigger quantities compared to batteries. 😊
They’re working on filling stations that actually produce the hydrogen on sight.
I’m not against EV but not everyone wants an EV. I’m very happy Toyota stands up for millions of drivers who love internal combustion engines and hybrid vehicles. These vehicles balance out the mix thus reducing demand for rare earth resources and not depend on the power grids for energy. It’s the right thing Toyota is doing and shall be applauded.
Hydrogen refueling infrastructure seems to be a big obstacle to FCEV adoption, even in long-haul trucking when there is a clear total cost of ownership advantage over existing diesel. Is there some obstacle to just using replaceable canisters of hydrogen, which can be prepositioned at depots along the major routes, even at the usual truck stops? Perhaps this could be a solution, maybe combined with small distributed electrolysis plants filling canisters from intermittent renewables or nearby nuclear during off peak hours. Having refueling stations throughout the U.S. doesn't seem like it will be happening soon, is there some way FCEV long haul trucking could take off without refueling station infrastructure being in place?
Hydrogen is made from fossil fuel-derived electricity & therefore not clean,
So, Toyota thinks that they can sell a hydrogen powered semi truck? Not only are there high costs for the fuel cell and hydrogen storage, but hydrogen fuel is really expensive, twice the per-mile cost of diesel, and several times more expensive than electricity. Do they really think that the bean-counters at trucking companies will be eager to pay more for a truck using more expensive fuel? Then there is the severe lack of infrastructure due to the absurdly high cost of hydrogen refueling equipment, meaning there is hardly any place for those hydrogen semis to go to.
But maybe it isn't meant to be taken seriously, maybe it's just like a concept car, there to generate buzz and turn heads, but never intended to actually come to market.
Anyone considering a Toyota BEV should look into how they have behaved in that area for the last decade. Lobbying against EV’s , promoting fossil fuels for their own gain because they bet the wrong way. Shameful
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
TOY is Kray Kray!
Power plants are centralized, much easier to scrub the emissions.
Electricity is not as clean as claimed
Again I agree , GM is ahead infrastructure wise but early on they choose a premium market approach with relatively low volume vehicles. GM needs a Hyundai style cheap vehicle. Not too cheap! They anticipated that EV adoption would be slow, methodological and premium. That would have logical.
Toyota is refusing to give up on the Hybrids which explains why they were lobbying AGAINST the EV bill in Congress !! Toyota EV offering is a also joke in 2023 shipping with barely 200 Miles per charge and a slow charging!
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
@@electrictroy2010 The Doom is already visiting Toyota and they just pushed the current CEO to the Board and away from day-day decision-making! This is a typical face-saving move that is the tradition in Japanese culture to bid farewell to a long-serving Executive. This will pave the way for Toyota to reverse course and adopt BEV strategy which is inevitable. Tesla sales were up 31% last quarter!
That car is basically a cheap BYD product. Toyota has realized that they don't have a viable platform. They will be on Gen 1 when Ford Gen2 is in the market. Tesla will be Gen 5 by then...
I totally get that a pure EV is better for the environment than a hybrid, and that the pure EV has fewer parts, and probably lower maintenance costs, BUT there is probably a place in the marketplace for an EV plugin with about a 100 miles of range matted to a "range extender". There are consumers that probably never exceed 100 miles 95% of the time during the month. If the "range extender" is an ICE engine, and it barely gets used, that ICE engine might only have 7000-8000 miles on it after 5 years, so it should last a long time. i.e. low maintenance.
Chevy Volt already tried that & was discontinued due to lack of interest by customers
@@electrictroy2010 In the US, yes, our tastes are a lot different than the rest of the world. Ireland, England, Scotland, Norway, Sweden, etc etc. are pretty satisfied with a lower range. FYI in December 30% of all vehicles sold in England were EVs. Norway for 2022 -> 80% of new vehicles were EVs. While the US is still down around 5% of new sales are EVs.
Unfortunately most plugin hybrids only have 20 to 30 miles battery range. There are exceptions but in general the battery is just a marketing or green-washing ploy.
@@johnpublicprofile6261 You are correct, however it must be working. I see a lot of plug in hybrids driving around.
Of course the full line mfg such as gm, ford, and stellantis will have lower overall efficiency. They make millions of pickups both light duty like f150 and heavy duty like 3500HD that people want and need.
No. Hybrids are simply a bridge to EVs at this point. I was considering buying a new EV6 until the inflation reduction act made that car ineligible for the tax credit, so I bought a new Nissan Leaf instead. It's perfect for around town, but not really for road trips. So I'll likely buy the new Prius for road trips for now, and once an affordable, attractive EV comes out with decent range and quick charging, I'll trade the Prius in for that. We're well on our way - in a few years, I think the overall market will be in a real sweet spot.
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
@@electrictroy2010 What people were those? Musk and his followers maybe? Source? Anyway, if Toyota were to completely refuse to switch to EVs, they might be right, but Toyota is simply taking it's time. There's no huge rush at this point - they can do it at a measured pace.
Hybrids are a bridge to nowhere .
How do you throw softballs to Toyota concerning qualifying hybrids as a means of reducing emissions? I know you reported on European reports that discovered that hybrids were largely a means to bypass regulations as drivers were found to continue to depend on gas and diesel. The dependence on battery power was reported to be far below what was expected. I’m writing this with Jordan Choby bruising the truth in the background as he is paid to do.
The mustang machE in its previous form was initiated by Mark Fields. Hacket (as much as i can't stand him) was responsible for allowing the change to a mustang mach E. Jim Farley pushed for that. In other words, Farley pushed for the change to machE from ho hum blan EV program to exciting machE with the blessing of the CEO "old man Hacket".
GARY FYI the year 2035 is not 17 years away
If Toyota produces a lot of Prius 2023, it will be huuuuuuge problem for Tesla Sales.
John says ICE "is already on the downward slope" 1:00:00 but still talks about the second inning (when Ford etc. are trying to catch up with GM's 3-yr lead using a designed-from-scratch BEV platform including its own battery factories) lasting until 2030. What I worry about is that much sooner than that date, the resale value of ICE vehicles will plummet, and customers will be much less willing to pay current prices on an ICE vehicle. Perhaps by then (2026?) GM will already have used its ICE profits (from selling Escalades and trucks) to make its $35B investment to transition to EVs. They will be able to produce EVs at a volume that will allow them to grow revenues even with plunging ICE output. The other incumbents will still be trying make such an investment, while they are losing their ICE cash cow. They may survive as companies, but with a much smaller annual turnover. BYD, Geely-Volvo and Tesla will move into the top six. If GM is able to execute on its strategies, and customers buy their EVs, they could stay in the top six. Who will occupy the other two slots? Maybe Toyota, and maybe Hyundai, because they are more flexible. Or maybe some other company will turn out to be even more flexible.
ICEs aren’t going away. Even in California 95% of new car sales are ICE
Toyota is right for the distant future.........
EV will not be the mainstream unless below problems are solved.
1, Too expensive
2, Not convienence for long range driving
3, Not enough Charging Stations
4, Who is paying for installing more Charging Stations ? Governments ?
5, Power Grid Capacity
I think that thinking that 50% of consumers want internal combustion engines may be idealistic for car manufacturers. The consumer will decide what they want not car companies. If any one of the companies decides to only make ICE vehicles they will sell only to those that want the model they make at the price that fits their pocketbook. I think more that 50% would buy a BEV today IF they could afford them AND they would feel better about the charging infrastructure. For most it is basically price and if US, Japanese and European companies think otherwise the Chinese companies will eat their pie.
Even in California BEV new car sales is less than 5%
@@electrictroy2010 I think if you read a bit the comments I see on the way dealers treat customers of non-Tesla BEV in California, with ridiculous extra charges above MSRP, you will find some of the reasons why sales are so low. If I lived in California I would not buy a Tesla as I assume the number of white M3 and My cars is like yellow taxis in NYC.
I do not like cvt but I do like Fords ecvt, I think Toyota’s 1sts gear cvt is better
Toyota and Ford’s hybrid transmissions are basically identical
@@electrictroy2010 so your saying both have a mechanical first gear. Did not know this was the case.
Great show,but the future is going to be EV's. As SEMA reviled, aftermarket will the real source of the adaption of EV's for the other half of the population.
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
GM products appear to be too heavy to be efficient. If they can increase efficiency they will win. This could be catastrophic if they spent all this money for product less efficient that ice modified platforms.
I hear lyric reservation canceled went tesla look it up journalist's
Ever since it was revealed Toyota was the number two funder of anti climate change propaganda, I've put them in the same category as the European and American manufacturers. Which is dead men walking.
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
I loved the hilux trucks back in the day. A bit later the Rav4 with hinged rear door. Now the only Toyota I appreciate is my old Prius. I sure hope they figure out how to start making EVs to get me back as a customer.
We can see that makers and buyers are turning their heads at BEV and charging network. The trend has traction recently. So why would one country not getting serious in it? Japan appears to be willfully ignorant about that, why?
Because they have privileged intel that BEV is a temporary measure to liquid and ammonia hydrogen and hence hydrogen$ to replace petroleum$, one commodity to another.
Hydrogen doesn’t exist on earth. It has to be artificially manufactured using fossil fuels (and that isn’t clean)
@@electrictroy2010 no objection. You must be saying there is no free hydrogen gas? It must be extracted and free from other elements.
@@electrictroy2010 I agree, nearly all free hydrogen were engaged with carbon and other elements including oxygen. So there isn’t much hydrogen floating around in free form.
Gotta laugh, comparing fsd to waymo. Not apples to apples. Fsd is used everywhere vs a mapped route for waymo.
They only know what they know. Few people who have not studied AI have a clue how different Neural Networks are
I’m a Tesla shareholder and huge fan of Elon, however, any AD system where the user must constantly check and intervene is going to be 100% good… ANY!
The measure of a 5th level AD system would have zero interventions done or even possible, and then far fewer serious accidents or fender benders / 100k kms than human driven ones.
So we ABSOLUTELY a need Tesla to return to publishing the intervention stats using the same measure, frequency as all the others. As a Tesla guy, I’d like to see that and beyond, meaning more ways of measuring AD performance and far more frequency… I’d like daily stats on fender benders w/o human injury, human mild injury, serious human injury, deaths. From Tesla and the other vehicle involved when Tesla was at fault.
I had to laugh when the Toyota guy said that Toyota believed in BEVs… sorry but I take his CEO’s word before his and the CEO has clearly stated FOR YEARS that Hydrogen was the way to go and BEVs simply were premature. He has switched in recent months purely because they watched the world’s markets close their doors to hybrids and ICE while everyone spending money on Hydrogen saying they were bailing out as they no longer could see H2 being competitive against BEVs in personal transport.
Actually a fuel cell “consumes” oxygen like ICE, it’s physics! (Or actually chemistry) It will be affected, like an ICE engine, by anything which affects the density of O2 in a cubic meter of “air”. So humidity, pollution, altitude, dust, snow, rain, etc.
He was right when he carefully said “EV”s are not affected like ICE… he didn’t say HEVs weren’t.
Add to that we get the worst of both worlds… meaning we lose the ability to “charge” at home as we must charge tanks w H2 while BEVs charge batteries with electrons… the things running throughout every house.
Where BEVs lose quick charging gas stations, the HEVs gain relatively quick tanking BUT without the millions of gas tanking points.
I just don’t see it… for other vehicles… that’s something different.
To John’s point, Tesla does get excessive attention. Tom, a little news for you but there are tons of accidents on cars without FSD, like 37,461 people each and every year just in the US… why isn’t that important. Secondly, Cruise and Waymo can’t be compared to FSD as they simply rerun the exact same roads and intersections, day after day. Lotsa miles but how many UNIQUE miles? FSD gets challenged with every new territory opened up.
So NOT apples to apples.
Is Toyota just presuming that electric power is not going to dominate? Most extra hybrid efficiency s coming from lightweighting and a slippier car shape to cut drag not the engine itself. Cvt transmission has also been a Toyota focus. Thermal efficiency is coming from a lighter engine.
I think Toyota is assuming that BEVs are the future but not really the present. They are gambling a little that the current BEV technology will be obsolete by the time Toyota goes all in with BEVs.
@@tubewacha Except that for many short trip urban car buyers or even similar suburban drivers, BEV is perfect. For those with enough rooftop solar+battery storage, even more so. Then consider a big car battery and using it to avoid crippling "short" blackouts.
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
@@electrictroy2010 yes because ice engines that are fuel efficient are still the dominant powertrain. Diesel turbo engines would be the same if not for VW and it still dominates commercial engine power. Nissans epower, GMs volt engine, 3cyl turbos, cylinder deactivation etc all there to cut fuel burn and emissions but they still dump carcinogens and C02. So hybrid is now the defacto toyota engine but unless they want to be left like Honda/bmw/stellantis/Peugeot and be mostly a single ev car player. They keep losing on china sales as EVs grow and the future US subsidies will undermine higher end hybrids like lexus. Tesla already outsells the German premium players and EVs are now heading down to the middle big volume cars. Toyota has no other local home expertise to compete against in Japan (in fact their car market is slowly imploding). What happens when China EVs arrive in CA and other green states (most are some the most lucrative and high volume). European car makers are seeing this wave arrive and they're scrambling to catch up to offer some relative competition. Higher gas costs, city emission regs all help hybrids but only so far.
Guys this is AI and with a Neural Networks that learns rather than strictly programmatic coding. Progress is often non linear. The geo fencing solutions are not scalable.
My guess is that twitter was in much worse shape the he originally expected. Would have better starting from scratch. Now he is stuck cutting ridiculous costs on rented furniture.
Toyota can’t yet make a BEV with ICE margins. So they trot out the “new hybrids” - what a joke
There will be a waiting list when the new Prius shows up in dealerships next month. Toyota won't be twisting arms to get people to buy its hybrids. But, will the RAV4 continue to take away sales from other Toyota models?
@@timothykeith1367 prius sales has been declining since 2012, almost 237,000 to just over 28,000 so far this year. Keep in mind this is with the high gas prices in the first half of the year. The prius has only gained marginal gas mileage improvement and still suffers from abysmal acceleration. I liked the concept of the prius, but felt Toyota was always too conservative with the improvements with each generation.
@@GG-si7fw The Prius sales have indeed been declining, mostly because buyers are choosing other Toyota hybrids. The RAV4 hybrid is popular. My Geo Metro with almost no technology can just about match the fuel economy of the new Prius, but a Metro has very slow acceleration and has mimimal safey. The Metro XFI was rated at 58 mpg. The 2023 Prius is quite powerful compared to the 2022 model. I'd only justify a Prius if I were to keep it for a long time, they can last 300,000 miles. The price of the 2023 is likely to have dealer mark ups - its takes a lot of driving to justify the fuel savings. If Tesla produces a $25,000 EV it removes the argument for a Prius that is only used for local commuting. If you forget to plug in the Prius Prime you might as well have not bought a PHEV. I no longer drive enough to justify any new vehicle. I could drive an older F150 and not use a lot of fuel.
@@timothykeith1367 Great points. My brother had one of those Geo Metro XFi and I liked it except for the wide ratios which was needed for the higher mpg. People may complain about the noise due to the thin construction but I akin it to the Porsche RS approach towards fuel economy. My only concern was being in an accident in it but the great view and nimblenss of the vehicle made it easy to avoid being in accidents but in this day of distracted driving, I would avoid them today. 😔
gm is done I think
Need more interviews of Sandy Munro , not a Toyota executive, Toyota is stuck on FOOLCELLS and Hybrids and Hydrogen as a fuel.
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
@@electrictroy2010 it is a slow death for Toyota , already its Camry was outsold by Tesla in Australia , its Lexus cars are being replaced by Telas in driveways, sales of Toyotas were down last year, the Chinese BEVs are coming, BYD will be afterToyotas marketshare, the writing is on the wall.DOOMED is Toyota.
@@aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669 Toyota isn't dying. Yo'ure making it up. So what that a Tesla model in one country outsold a sedan in a country where sedans are becoming less popular. The Toyota Camry drivers switched to RAV4s, that's all that happened. There is no writing on the wall. It's a narrative made up by a bunch of people that dislike Toyota and believe in too much of their own BS.
@@benjaminsmith2287 If you check Hyundai and Kias history they were nobodys in 1980s, they have given Toyota and Nissan and Honda competition .,Those that don't pay attention to the winds of change deserve their "Kodak moment" , or is that Nokia?, Please give me a time frame when Toyotas Foolcells and Hydrogen powered cars are dominant in moving people, or are You full of HOT AIR like Akio Toyoda?
@@benjaminsmith2287 You just ate Toyotas BS!!!🤣
Right now there is no competition for Tesla. Every EV is being sold that is built by anyone taking sales away from ICE cars. Once the market is saturated, then, we will see competition between EV brands. Tesla can drop their price to stay competitive and profitable. Nobody else can.
I see a lot of former TESLA customers buying Ford's. It's weird as it feels almost like a political shift.
How many billions have Toyota wasted on Fool Cells
Japan mentality. Hopefully Toyota get some fresh blood in boardroom asap
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
All options need to be reviewed through an environmental lens and then with financial considerations.
I agree, GM is ahead infrastructure wise but there vehicles so far are ugly. The blazer is ugly and is no where
Toyota has a new CEO. Toyoda is OUT. I'm inclined to think Toyota is about to change from its long standing progression to H2 FCVs and all of that new costly infrastructure for everybody, to a BEV platform where the basic infrastructure has been in place since electricity first entered the home.
This is why I just buy TESLA. End of discussion. Forget Hybrid unless that hybrid can do 150 miles on a charge before the engine kicks in.
People are forgetting about AI driving cars soon. AI vehicles are coming and people do not see it. The awakening is here. 2030 - 2035 will shake this space.
Tom Murphy should be embarrassed to make the argument ‘aren’t you just replacing one fossil fuel with another’. Do some reading man! Your views are outdated and plain inaccurate!
I'm sure GMC by its self is by far the most profitable car company
Toyota is not crazy. They are wise and seasoned business men stuck in a trap. They have done a lot to promote two technologies. One, internal combustion engines, and two, hybrid technologies. However, loving "two masters" has been difficult, they are now in the position having a third "master". Toyota is now in the difficult position of having a third all electric "master" and remain relevant in today's marketplace.
2005 : That’s when people started saying “If Toyota doesn’t make EVs then they are doomed.” Almost twenty years later, and the company is still largest in the world.
The doom never came. The internet users’ predictions were wrong.
Ford will make ICE Trucks till 2040.
Or up to where they can not sell them. That is not tomorrow. But maybe not 2040 either. Just have to see what batteries look like in 10 or 15 years.
Ford is unlikely to be in business in 2040.
i actually think hydrogen could be the answer but not in their current form i.e stored in extreme pressure tanks? solid hydrogen in powder or paste form could fire up take up rates and infrastructure? hell in powder/paste we could even order "top up cartridges" from Amazon with free shipping and might not need infrastructure haha
Hydrogen is a gas, not a solid dumbas
I dont need a car but the new Toyota Prius is just mindplowing amazing!You can drive them around 60miles pure electric
Someone needs to produce range-extended BEVs!
They are called PHEVs and I agree with you.
Shame Toyota sold there ownership of Tesla
Hybrids are going to be scrap metal as all incentives for them end !
Toyota uses BYD to manufacture there BEV’s
Toyota with their debt level just under $200B are facing catastrophic failure with a company that has in many cases worthless assets and many thousands of staff that are not qualified to build and design BEV’s
It’s getting nasty for them by the end of 2023
-you were promoting H2 as a green fuel source/ this is a false concept, promoted by the oil industry , which wants to produce H2 from Methane. This is neither energy efficient nor environmentally friendly ( ie: it would be more efficient and green to just burn the methane in vehicles ). Even green H2 production (in which the oil industry has no interest) is only 40% efficient by the time you convert it back into electricity to run the ELECTRIC motors. Your show is helping trick the public into thinking H2 is a green fuel. Please look into this and do a artificial on the false perception that H2 is a green fuel because of the production methods.
Fuel cells are stupid from a fundamental efficiency point of view. This is an umsolveable proble. Just stop Toyota
Anecdotally, I just completed a 5000 mile trip across America and back and only saw one EV (a Tesla). Still doubtful that the future is electric.
On the average 1 in 50 should be a tesla. But they tend to be concentrated in cities esp where people are making good money. Give it 3 years and you will see a marked difference.
Just drove my EV6 across and saw plenty of EVS. Maybe you took back roads?
@@drdan3 Was just watching a model 3 road trip in Sweden to the arctic circle. There are chargers everywhere. So are EVs. Literally replacing gas pumps with EV chargers. Oil is spending more in the US to discredit EV? It is not just about Tesla.
I know you guys are gas car guys, but do none of you invest in stocks? The ENTIRE stock market has lost massive value over the last year. Do you think Disney or the 100s of other stocks that have lost as much if not more value then Tesla stock? Tesla has only been increasing it's sale and profits this last year, while the stock has been going down with the REST of the stock market. Please don't just be a channel that can't look past the blinders. Look at the entire market. sigh... And why not compare Tesla FSD to how many miles per crash compared to people driving miles per crash? We are talking millions of Teslas on the road, not a under 100 cars with Waymo or any other FSD companies fleets.
Arrogant
Toyota should have woken years ago made BEV. Selling old toxic ice technology, and lobbying to slow BEVs is immoral. hybrid is are out-dated. sadly Toyota will go bankrupt... #buzzofftoxic
Pollution isn't the problem it's weather control .
C02 is the best way to regulate the earth temperature at this time. I would like to see a NASA contract to somebody to produce huge space based sun shades for earth. Not ging to happen tomorrow but we need to be working on it. Less pollution is always good.
SHAME ON TOYOTA, they basically can't compeat or are delusional.
This Tom guy just can't give up on his ice fetish.
These guys are so clueless. I watch them for a laugh.