"Outgunned" - Artillery & The War in Ukraine - Developments, lessons, & logistics
Vložit
- čas přidán 18. 05. 2024
- Sponsored by Private Internet Access: privateinternetaccess.com/Perun
*As always - check pinned comment for any additional caveats or comments*
We've talked a lot about the weaknesses of the Russian army in the past, including the difficulties it has faced attempting a war of rapid maneuver in February and March and bringing sufficient infantry forward to support its armoured vehicles.
But one very clear strength of the Russian military is is artillery corps. Russia has guns, lots of guns, and deep stocks of ammo leftover from the old Soviet Union.
In this video we explore the pre-war Russian and Ukrainian artillery forces, look at the way the artillery war has evolved to date, how logistics may impact the sustainability of both forces going forward, and what lessons forces around the world might (tentatively) take from the war so far, based on the information in the public domain.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Opening words
00:00:56 -- Sponsor: PRIVATE INTERNET ACCESS
00:02:14 -- What Am I covering?
00:03:32 -- The competing forces
00:03:38 -- Russia - An Artillery Army
00:06:40 -- Russian Artillery: Cutting edge stuff
00:07:48 -- Russian Artillery: Most is good old soviet artillery
00:09:00 -- Russian Artillery: Most is good old soviet artillery
00:11:07 -- Guns of Ukraine
00:12:47 -- NATO support
00:14:37 -- Artillery in Ukraine
00:14:47 -- The road to Kyiv
00:17:39 -- Shift Towards Static Warfare
00:19:43 -- How the artillery battlespace was born?
00:23:45 -- Russian Artillery usage
00:25:23 -- Weight of fire
00:27:25 -- Ukrainian artillery usage
00:29:29 -- The Himars Effect
00:31:32 -- The Depot Blitz
00:33:28 -- Drone spotting
00:36:24 -- From the Front: The Donbass
00:37:44 -- From the Front: Kherson
00:38:33 -- From the Front: Izium
00:39:59 -- Ammunition and sustainment
00:41:00 -- Barrels and lifespan
00:46:19 -- Accuracy matters
00:52:17 -- Russian Ammo
00:55:33 -- Ukraine’s (old) ammo
00:58:29 -- Ukraine’s (new) ammo
01:01:42 -- Early lessons
01:02:24 -- Ammunition consumption
01:06:04 -- Sensor fusion & transparent battlespace
01:09:24 -- Is NATO outgunned
01:11:30 -- A plan for contested airspace
01:14:42 -- Range, Range, Range
01:15:59 -- Conclusions
01:19:13 -- Channel update
Sources (non-exhaustive due to late upload, will pad these out over the coming days):
Russian and Ukrainian pre-war artillery strength:
www.iiss.org/publications/the...
FIRMS system:
firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/...
Deepstate map (used to integrate FIRMS with frontline data)
deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438...
Examples of OSINT on suspected HIMARS strikes:
Osinttechnical/st...
Osinttechnical/st...
Osinttechnical/st...
Sponsored by Private Internet Access. Use the link below to access their promotional offer:
privateinternetaccess.com/Perun
Comments and Caveats:
As always, a disclaimer that I come at this topic from a procurement, industry, and logistics lens. Not that of a veteran.
Four key comments at time of upload on this one:
Firstly - regarding artillery numbers, these are highly contentious. I've used Military Balance 2021 for consistency with my other videos, but estimates on Russian guns range widely (120 towed guns and 12,000 in reserve by once source, 7,000 active and basically no reserves in another for example). Take the figures as indicative - not as final. Figures on the Koalitsiya guns are likewise extremely diverse (8-72). Frankly, I'm not a huge fan of some parts of the MB2021 figures when it comes to Russian artillery, but again, there's value in consistency and using a recognised source, so I use them here. Also note the distinction between the guns of the Russian Ground forces, and total Russian artillery counts (including VDV and naval infantry).
Secondly - at one point discussing FIRMS data I think I say June when I mean July
Thirdly - When discussing 155mm ammo purchases in the USA - I say the USA would need to increase production 3x to hit a 10,000 rounds a day target. The actual multiplier is very roughly 30+x. You can tell I was tired when I recorded that bit.
I also want to be clear that drone-spotted artillery isn't new. What is new is the fact that every gunner and infantry squad in Ukraine seems to have at least a commercial quadrotor to spot for and correct fire.
Finally - I talk a lot about what we have video evidence of during this video - just make sure to remember the point we've made in other videos regarding this sort of evidence....people don't upload videos where things go badly (e.g. when they miss).
One of the most honest and upfront VPN pitches I've seen on CZcams - as someone who works in infosec, thank you for not spreading disinfo
@@hayleyxyz what's the best vpn to use for my android phone in Canada?
@Perun With the collapse of Sri Lanka I would like a video on the knock on effects on the countries currently following the same downfall Pakistan seems to be going the same way economically with its currency plummeting. I have also heard Peru as well as 70 ish other counties will go bankrupt within the next 1-2 years if the the current economic trade issues continue. IE high gas prices and shortage and high fertilizer cost and shortage as well as currencies declining in value rapidly along with these countries holding huge debts they wont be able to service. These issues may force the west and Russia to come to the table along with India and china as the bankruptcy of just a few of these countries will have massive global effects on trade and stability. Also there is a food crisis brewing both because of the wheat prices as well as the currency/trade deficit issues. We may see several nations break out in civil war and the IMF cannot loan to them all. Pakistan breaking out in civil war or going bankrupt will have dire consequences, as well as turkey is also having huge issues with its currency.
I think you have a tendency to think about the Russians as NATO members trying to meet NATO standards in some fashion. If you have ten guns that have worn out barrels and unacceptable targeting specs in comparison to the capability of the weapons when new, you might have a serious targeting problem. But if you can add 990 more guns to hitting the target, you have a very much better chance of hitting the target despite the very high wastage of shells. And if you real purpose is to just waste large areas, such a city, targeting capability is hardly a great concern. I could point out that this was the primary lesson of the Allied bombing campaigns in WWII. As Marx once noted, quantity equals quality.
But of course, if you can get control of the enemy guns for just enough time to drop a phosphorus grenade down the tube, well, that would be a game changer.
The situation in the South and East of Ukraine is similar to the race to the sea on the Western Front in WWI. The Western Front was an artillery-centric war where each side raced to build more guns, more ammunition, and heavier/longer-ranged artillery than their opponents in order to overcome the stalemate of the trenches. However, more guns and more ammunition didn't give anyone an advantage because many of the guns of that era were low-angle, light field guns that weren't suitable to deliver long-range, accurate, and heavy fire support to overcome an entrenched enemy.
The Western Front in WWI didn't move much because neither side had sufficient tactical mobility or firepower to overcome an enemy defense in depth that included barbed wire, machine guns, and trenches. In contrast, the Eastern Front in WWI was waged over a much wider front where neither side had the resources to man trenches across the length of the entire front. So mobile warfare was still possible and the Russians didn't abandon low-angle, light field artillery like the Western powers after WWI. The Russians continued to place an emphasis on direct fire and numerical superiority to overcome poor communication and fire direction/detection methods.
Although much has been made of Russia's numerical superiority in artillery the way they are using it isn't very efficient. Since the Russian strategy is relatively static and artillery centric it requires more artillery and also increases the consumption of ammunition if the artillery isn't well directed. A wide front strategy also makes it hard for the Russians to achieve numerical superiority on any front and logistically it's a nightmare if you don't have a sufficient number of transport vehicles and adequate supplies. Russia's meager gains recently shouldn't be considered decisive because I'm not sure the Russians have the logistics necessary to achieve a large breakout in any sector or to supply the forces they already have in the field? So Western analysts shouldn't become too obsessed with the number of guns the Russians have or their ammunition supply when the Russians have shown they lack the manpower needed for a large-scale offensive and the logistics necessary to supply their troops. If anything we should encourage the Russians to believe that the number of guns and ammunition expended equals effectiveness because the number of guns and ammunition expended didn't equal victory for any side during WWI.
The priorities for the Ukrainians should be:
1)Interdict Russian supply lines by striking bridges, railyards, roads, supply depots, airports, and harbors 100km behind the front. If the Ukrainians can't rely on air power or long-range artillery they should use infiltration tactics and sabotage to strike Russian logistics.
2)Target Russian mobile long-range and heavy artillery with effective counterbattery fire. If they deprive the Russians of their most modern and mobile artillery that limits the Russian's ability to take offensive action. This means the Russians will need more towed guns to cover their overstretched front which will rob them of offensive ability.
3)Emphasis should be given to destroying Russian communications and fire detection/direction radars. If they deprive the Russians of their communications and fire detection/direction radars the Russians won't be able to conduct effective counterbattery fire. If they deprive the Russians of their ability to communicate and coordinate their artillery they will have to resort to using more towed guns to cover their overstretched front and the Russians will resort to direct fire tactics which are very wasteful. Because I doubt few Russian conscripts know the older fire direction/detection methods of trigonometry and sound detection.
Time for my weekly dose of weapon logistics PowerPoints.
I feel like I’m in an intelligence meeting
@@jtgd taking notes to keep up as far as I am concerned.
Hooray!
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Man, I can't take enough of this
Months into this war and this content is still top-notch. Despite the runtime, I would still argue this is the most concise and sober analysis on CZcams
Very good
history legends also does a good job
Watch the videos by the Austrian military they have been doing analysis on this was as well and you can find it on CZcams.
It's different, less professional production, but I also like channel "war in Ukraine "
Concise doesnt mean short. Thats a huge misconception, and length in itself isnt an indication whether something is concise or not.
Man, if only my lectures in college were even 1% as interesting as this, I would have been a star student.
Huge props to Perum, I'm sitting on the edge of my seat for over an hour watching what is effectively a powerpoint presentation. Like, wow, you have a gift for teaching dude.
Yeah I always lol when people say power points are useless… I had a history teacher like like guy and he made history a massive passion for me, and all he did was read bullet points off a list each day, but he did it with passion and expert attention to detail! I still remember him!
@Namika - Yes! I've had a few (very few) teachers/professors like Perun where they not only have a passion and a deep knowledge of their subject, but importantly, add in little jokes here and there just when my mind is wandering a bit - and drive the point home so well that it involuntarily sticks in my thick head. Love it.
Online studies will really boost education. Every student will only watch the best possible lecture on each topic, produced once and for all. Not sit and listen to a professor who is more interested in other topics and is having a bad day. Physical universities should do research, not education.
maybe you are just older now, and not thinking about keggers and bitches
You ain't put in the work bud he clearly spends a lot of time on this shit
I'm a South Korean and served in the Korean military. There is a funny saying in Korean military 'if its an artillery put some wheels on it, and if it has wheels put some artillery on it.'
While other nations emphasized more 'down-sized/limited war' doctrines among the past years, S.Korea sticked to its 'Full-on 50s style' doctrine warfare against north korea, china, and even russia. This led Korea to stockpile as much 105/155mm rounds possible, and comes 2nd place in artillery/mrls numbers among blue team. The Ukraine war itself shows so much important lessons for Koreans.
So much joy to see your video every week, and please do a topic on Korean weapons system in the future. I'll be happy to help on the research!
Yeah definitely against "Russia and China".
I know cucking to Anglo Saxons is part of South Korean identity but bluff something which is believable
The concept of war in your region scares me. Not because of the Chinese next door. Or the potential for nuclear strikes. But the number of ammo dumps That will get shelled on day one of the war and where exactly you intend to hide the entire citizenship of the country for the first month as North and South try to shell each other into submission.
Counter battery fire is great till they saturation strike the entire country and blow up all the radars, farmland, factories, and random bits of forest, just in case of there being something hidden there.
I presume there are plenty of fortified artillery positions somewhere at each end, so the shelling will probably continue regardless of counter battery barrages.
Let's hope for a peaceful outcome, regardless of how unlikely it feels these days.
@@arminius6506 Dude I hope I was bluffing but it is the sad truth... The Korean war did not end, its just at an armistice. If the armistice is violated, all parties are automatically to reparticipate.
China has its signiture on the armistice, so is obliged to join in the war. Even without it, they hate the fact they will be sharing boarders with US allies that hold alot of US troops. Russia hates boardering US ally too, and will definately intervene in any ways.
South Korean mechanized divisions are sort of 'human shields' to absorb the first wave of the NorthEast Army at Manchuria before the US rolls in.
I take no personal pride in Koreans standing up against big nations (China/Russia). Its actually just a sad sad reality for Koreans.
@@user-dn9qj8jh4p Koreans are always be pawns. From the beginning of time. Now days SK is pawn for the west while NK is pawn for China.
As s Finnish reservist I can only agree with the Koreans. Our doctrine puts huge emphasis on artillery. Finland has "only" 1200 artillery pieces but it means we have over 200 per every million inhabitants... Not bad for a country in the blue team.
Six years as a commissioned USMC artillery officer and it was a pleasure to actually watch something on CZcams not riddled with misconceptions about how artillery works, how it is employed and the logistics challenges involved with respect to ammunition supplies, as well as maintenance of the prime movers.
Perun has been very coy about what he actually does for a living, I think he mentioned education in economics. But my money is a civilian employee for the ADF, probably in logistics, maybe in intelligence. He just understand too many nuances of the weapon systems.
@@lordAvatar i thought he outright said that he was a college student studying economics. But now that you mention it i'm not sure...
@@IntrusiveThot420 I remember him saying he was out of university... It's a very specialized field of study, military economics... IMO to be this knowledgable he has to be using some of this knowledge in his day job.
@@lordAvatar He said he is not working for the military, only that his university bakground is in economics and history of warfare - I think he mentioned mostly about european theatre of WW2.
I wouldn't under estimate years of playing wargames on paper and online.
It naturally drives a ton of recreational research.
I'm still amazed how this man here has had a small niche gaming channel, and in a period of few months this channel has become a military analysis one with noticeable amount of audience and even sponsorships. Very glad to see this, keep it up.
The strange part is I had always presumed that people would find the gaming (which is just a fun hobby) more interesting than defence economics. That turned out to not be the case at all.
@@PerunAU You tapped into the fanbase of history/military nerds here on CZcams with excellent analysis of a very topical conflict. You did it pretty much perfectly, since gaming content saturates youtube, but good sources is very lacking on here. Great work!
@@danisrusski6297 yeah these days gaming channels have to have some theme or motive generic gaming is to vague to get any traction.
@@PerunAU wait till you find out that defence economics presented by a girl streaming in undies might be a thing...
And a notable amount of prominent analysts as viewers such as Beu of the Fifth th and Chieftain
48:37 "Son, you are standing in the greatest invention that military science has ever devised for keeping a soldier safe on the battlefield- The Trench!"
From the game _Trenched_
Three guys with shovels, canvas bags, and a machine gun can build in a couple of hours a position that can hold up an entire platoon.
You are correct. As I a Marine I highly lament the lack of bayonet charges on the Ukrainian front.
One lesson learned (actually forgotten pretty much after WWII) is you can never have enough ammunition stockpiled. Even in WWI there was "the great shell shortage".
Which helped push us into adopting day light savings time.
Ammunition and ammunition delivery systems. I shake my head at less than a thousand very expensive F-35, compared to say WWII Spitfires, 22,000 built.
@@deanwoodward8026 OTOH the F-35 is far far more capable than a Spitfire. A Spitfire would be entirely useless against an adversary equipped with F-35s due to limited range, speed, altitude, situational awareness, all-weather capability, stealth, ability to find targets, ability to destroy targets... etc. They are simply not comparable. The F-35 equipped force would be able to operate in the airspace of the Spitfire-equipped force at will while the opposite would not be true.
That’s not the point, it’s about the number of air frames available. Many modern air corps have total numbers fewer than the *losses* of a single week or so in previous conflicts.
...and several countries that ran desperately short of rifles too! But then the military industrial complex becomes part of the self-fulfilling prophecy of seeking peace by preparing for war :(
As an artilleryman myself who has been doing analysis on field artillery in the current conflict, you have no idea how happy I was to see this video and how accurate it is. Great work
Ditto here.
@Commander Russian Waifu 🇷🇺 ... from the parallel universe of russian propaganda
@Commander Russian Waifu 🇷🇺 weeb
@Commander Russian Waifu 🇷🇺 The New Atlas? Thai news channel?
Thailand itself is basically a Chinese satellite state which will just regurgitate the Chinese media (indirectly RT)
@Commander Russian Waifu 🇷🇺 you literally have the Russian flag in your name.
i'm not sure if it's my age creeping up on me, or if i've always been "that" person just denying it, but i find these powerpoint presentations, numbers and in-depth looks and educated assumptions really seriously engaging and interesting. My wife asked, why am i watching this, it seems so boring, but oddly, i'm fascinated by this content and actually eagerly waiting for more. I loved the episode on German procurement, was really good and intriguing and had some extremely interesting historic points as well.
Even the few dry humor bits sprinkled here and there, are right on the money! Keep at it, top notch content.
If anything, i'd maybe add a few moving pictures/clips into the presentations, just to spice it up, so it's not just text and photos, but i can imagine it takes a good bit of time to put together and edit, so it is what it is. Either way, you've got a new avid sub from me :)
Me, too. I wish I was employed in a field where my job was analysis like this.
@@EricFapton Never too late to go after that dream, man. You only live once, better do what you can to enjoy every minute of it, which includes the field you work in :)
I was asked why I laughed so much, and apparently “jokes about Russian smoking” isn’t a good explanation…
When I was in school I could barely sit through a 20 minute PowerPoint about pretty much anything, but yeah, the way he presents his topics is top notch. I’m sure it hasn’t been said a lot… but I really liked that German Procurement episode too.
We're fed so many cartoon, oversimplified pictures of how things work that, as we realize once we see them, we're starved for detailed explanations of how the world actually works.
Thank you for sustaining the output of your content over the course of the Ukraine conflict as mainstream media interest peaks and wanes. Former RNZA (artillery) here, and what you cover in this video about (a) the emphasis of massed and indiscriminate but largely static fires endemic to Russian doctrine, (b) the contrast to Western/NATO emphasis on precision and quick reactive fire support and (c) the gradual sustainment issues to both sides in what appears to be shifting into a protracted conflict are even more detailed than the training many artillery officers receive. One point I would add is that many tubed/mortar artillery systems are much easier to bring out of storage into service than assets like MBT's, APC's or aircraft because they just need to be cleaned and have serviceable ammunition. However, as you point out the accuracy and effects on targets entirely depend on training (are troops familiar with calling for fire on those old platforms) and the quality of ammunition stocks/barrels. Russian ISTAR (targeting) is also WELL behind NATO likely due to a combination of doctrine (centralized command focusing on preparatory barrages instead of reflexive fire support run by forward observers/JTACs against targets of opportunity) as well as technology lag (drone systems, optics, and radio networks being well behind NATO standards reducing the ability of forward units to coordinate fire support with fire support assets). For Ukr, the issue really is how long Western political will to support them with ammunition, spare parts and even the flow of foreign volunteers lasts. For the Russians, it really comes down to using massed fire to break Ukrainian units enough to obtain some symbolic victories necessary to satisfy the Kremlin for a peace deal.
Here the problem. Putin wants all of Ukraine but might settle for the taken areas. Ukrainians say they won’t accept losing any territories because that’s a victory for Putin stealing their land and violating their Sovereignty. Hence the War.
So unless one side compromises, the War will continue.
I would not cede any territory to Russia. I’m rooting for Ukrainians to retake their land. So this War could be prolonged and that means more losses on both sides.
But it will be worth it, if Ukraine wins. Putin must lose. He has committed War Crimes pursuing this insane War. It can’t be business as usual as he is a proven ruthless mass murderer who is committing Genocide. He literally said Ukraine isn’t a country and should not exist. So he wants to annex it and rename it Russia?
And 45 million people are supposed to forget they have a separate language and ethnic identity? So they are going to be re-educated to forget their history? Not likely to occur.
Putin is deluded and must be stopped and taken in chains to the Hague to face War Crimes Charges. He’s guilty so he should be punished accordingly with a Firing Squad.
Down with Putin! 👎🏻🦨
@@dynjarren8355 while morally you may be correct, unfortunately that is also irrelevant. Wars may be started by force but they are always ended by negotiation. The reality is that even with Western help and a willingness to defend their territory that surprised most, the Ukrainians are unlikely capable of retaking the pro-Russian parts of Donbas and Crimea. They simply lack the manpower, firepower and leadership to coordinate a large scale offensive operation even though their defensive efforts have been quite good so far. It is easier to hold ground than to take it as the Russians found out the hard way. Moreover, the West is not exactly the worlds most reliable partner in anything - just look at them abandoning their puppet government in Afghanistan or the inconsistency of sanctions between EU member states - they will not last forever. All it takes is an election to change the Western policy towards Ukraine in a heartbeat. The reality is there will be a negotiated ceasefire and it will likely involve both sides making compromises as they gradually become exhausted from combat. If the Ukr are wise they will use that time to lobby for more Western support and build their military strength even more - the Russians will certainly be regrouping and learning lessons from this as well for the next stage in the great power conflict.
@@shaivahnparsons3244 Sadly, you are probably right. I hope there’s a Guerrilla style uprising in Donbas but they may be exhausted by the War and weary of further fighting over land. It completely depends on the populace living there. If they refuse to be occupied then Resistance is possible with a chance at success. If the populace doesn’t resist it, then it’s over. I don’t wish to see Putin gain anything. He used ruthless and dirty tactics that should be punished. We’ll see how this all ends soon enough. An endless stalemate will only prolong the bloodshed achieving nothing. No one wants to see that. I’m rooting for Ukraine to retake its territory but it may not be possible without Air Power which they don’t have. What a way to lose out. From lack of firepower. That’s a shame.
Symbolic victories = already controlling 30% of the former ukraine.
@@shaivahnparsons3244 Oh I dunno... 20 years in Afghanistan wasn't exactly a pause.
Since your comments above Ukraine has accomplished quite a bit, offensively.
"As an Australian, bushfires are our National Enemy"
Careful Perun, you don't want the emus to come back for their throne.
And they really know how to wage a war...
I thought it was bunnies……with sharp, pointy teeth.
@@rwilson1125 Look up the Great Emu War. It was real. And the emus won.
i thought it as Emu's
Breaking news: Australia ships 3000
emus to the donbass
Almost 4 months of consistently the best coverage to be found regarding Ukraine and the implications of the war. Mad respect.
War in Ukraine- another great channel 👍
Also the delivery is great. I have no idea how I end up listening to the entire 70+ mins while I usually close other analyses in avr 6 to 8mins if they are that long to begin with.
@Commander Russian Waifu 🇷🇺 Duran a Russian propaganda joke channel
@Commander Russian Waifu 🇷🇺 :))) Bruh, cows in Poland have higher GDP per CApita than your family :)))
Can you imagine if someone at a high level of, say, the US military, gave him access to all their best info?
M777 can fire about 1,500 full charge rounds before a barrel needs to be replaced. In an emergency, you can get at least another 1,000 rounds of lesser accuracy without causing any 'damage' to the rest of the system. Marines have tested the system to the point of catastrophic failure, somewhere in 5,000 to 6,000 round range.
Older heavier M198 was 1,750 full charge rounds, and could fire 500 more of lesser accuracy.
Of course it would be the Marines who decided to fire a massive cannon until it blows up in their faces.
@@Shaun_Jones it’s done with pretty much every weapon system. Run it until it blows completely up or is useless.
I don't have anything to say here, but I think CZcams likes it when people post comments. So here's a comment. Thank you for making these videos.
“God is on the side with the best artillery” Napoleon Bonaparte
Isn't the phrase "god is on the side with the biggest guns" Or did cod world at war lie to me as a teenager?
@@K3end0 they lied or paraphrashed napoleon without saying they did
Stalin also had similar quote i think
@@ssnaut1871 All I know from Stalin is this quote:
"The Pope? How many divisions does he have?"
@@K3end0 It did
I can't believe that Artillery Only has made its way to the most credible of PowerPoint presentations.
Of course Perun was going to be a HOI player
Well are you ready to be a believer? After all PERUN was the Thor-like protector god of Wolodomir the Great before he became christian.
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 Perun is a Slavic take on Indo-European thunder deity.
Hi, I listen to your podcast in Germany, I'm a former journalist and I spent a lot of time working in Ukraine. Your analysis is really in depth and its practically the only thing I can spare a full hour or more of my daily time to listen to. Only one regret, that you don't stream on other platforms, since listening on youtube makes it somewhat a hassle.
If you get CZcams premium you can use it with the screen off! But then again, it comes with a bill too... :)
Google make an absolute killing out of invading their users privacy to collect accurate data highly that is both highly specific detail and of ever-increasing in scope and scale specific, a uniquely individual user which is by our very nature as individuals unique
As a retired US Army infantry officer and lifelong student of military history and procedures I find your programs excellent and exciting. Without logistics you are just prisoners waiting to be scooped up. Without radio batteries you're hiking back to the nearest vehicle to call for resupply. These are of good length and depth although I'd gladly watch far longer treatments if they were of this quality. I love the series, rotary wing, redlegs, ATGM and tanks, etc. Keep 'em coming, please.
How old are you and what rank were you sir?
@@thesolomag less of that
>Perun posts
>Day instantly more interesting
Thanks for this coverage Perun, the information you've been presenting has been incredibly useful in discussions with my families and friends about this conflict
I agree! It would be even better if they would watch Perun's presentations themselves!
😁
Following PERUN I feel well-educated and knowledgeable! (Compared to 'normal' people)
Talking of 152mm ammo supplies, MESKO in Poland has switched to wartime level production, running 3 shifts and working around the clock and is apparently managing a throughput of 4k 152 shells per day. They are hoping to at least double that.
Hopefully the quality control doesn’t suffer because of it. Having to train 3 times the workforce in a short period of time, even if they come from similar industries, will be difficult.
Poland is awesome for the help it is pouring into Ukraine. Respect from New Zealand to those folks at MESKO.
@@maxpower3990 I would imagine that they're moving over folks from other areas of the business, sacrificing NATO caliber production for soviet caliber etc. AFAIK it's automated to the point where you're not majorly relying on shop floor operators to assure accuracy and quality as much as you just need to minimize downtime and keep equipment calibrated.
I've had a few people email me this but I haven't seen a report on it yet. But at the same time if it's just a case of internal staff reconfigurations that may not be surprising. Have you seen anything concrete about this or is it just coming from the workers at this point?
@@PerunAU Just hearsay from the industry. Nothing concrete unfortunately, I also imagine max production capabilities will be kept quiet.
It's heartening seeing a fellow Aussie create so much high quality content, thoroughly outclassing most of the media in this country. Long form content should be what we consume more of, so hats off to you - I and I hope a few more of us chuck this bloke a few dollarydoo's
Sorry can’t donate, I live in America, we don’t use the dollarydoo
Edit: does it use the didgeridoo standard?
@@matthewmcguire224 Poor showing mate, I'm sure you could send a few AR's or something, not sure what Freedom's currency is on the Didgeridoo standard
@@jordanryan2497 lol I’ll have to ask my brother about those ARs.....
Well done. 196th FA used to be, and here. Buddy of mine was FO in 1st Iraq war/Kuwait. Descriptive definitions neutral values lading & clear purposes. Well achieved.
My buddy too. Ken Helton.
"They made him a Second Lieutenant. They gave him his two bars of gold. They made him a forward observer, he lived to be 2 seconds old" - Drones are a MASSIVE improvement on FOs.
Hmmm basically can just use the drone to scout ahead for ya reducing risk.
Drones are operated by forward observers...
@@lsq7833 There is a significant difference between the location of an FO pre-drone and the location of a drone operator.
@@lsq7833 Agreed. FO-trained but never been in actual combat. We spent much of our effort in remaining undetected. The best way to remain undetected is keeping your nearby presence unsuspected. The presence of drones instantly alerts every bad guy with eyes, ears, brains, legs and guns to your own presence.
Drones are a nice and useful addition to the already impressive hightech toybag FO's get equipped with, but do not provide magical impunity.
As this war at the current stage is a re-enactment of WWI: pre-war there was a discussion of how to counter artillery in covered positions (it took only a week or so to realize old-style open fire positions were a really bad idea) and one of the ideas was to target the forward observers. But they also quickly realized that they couldn't detect the forward observers any more than they could detect the guns ...
Mate, now whenever I look through the comments on other channels, I always see comments referencing your channel and how good it is. You have really revolutionised the military commentary genre on CZcams and I'm glad you're seeing such success. You have made us Aussies proud of you and our [military] education system. Thanks for showing the world what we're made of.
Yeah, he definitely learned this in kangaroo school. 🦘👩🏫
I thought he was a kiwi . . . ?
@@samb2052 All look the same to me.
Yeah all Aussies study howitzers in primary school common knowledge
@@ericmckinley7985 they're just saying hello respectfully "How's it sir"? Not Howitzer.
This content provider should win some kind of award for use of the tern 'conniptions'. A rare example of an elegant, early American-English being adopted throughout the world.
This video is three months old. But like all of Perun's PowerPoint videos...I can just listen to it over and over again. I think it's a mixture of the subtle comedy, absolute reasonable logic, and that cool sauve Aussie accent that is so calming.
Leave it to an Aussie to have me sit through over an hour long powerpoint presentation without losing interest once, keep up the good work.
yes mate
Leave it to the NSA to be months behind the rest of the general public with painfully obvious intel sources.
Please excuse my hate.
You have just well...earned it by not correcting the Healthcare issue in our country related to Cancer causing ingredients.
Understood that you are probably a spoof account. If not, well I suppose we will talk when you're ready. Damage is already done in my life so no rush here.
@@ericluffy7970 It’s the FDA you should be complaining to, we’re more interested in your browser history.
@@LentPanic7 Hard name with a soft purpose. Duly noted. Best of luck to you and your organization. Just remember that we are very concerned about redundancy and the fat built into our government bleeding our tax dollars. So keep passing the buck onto the next organization (oldest POS move in the book) and when the day comes to start shuttering the doors of groups that had a chance to do good and chose to just do good enough; then we can start keeping more than 65 percent of our wages to do better for our families.
Apologies for trolling you on this. Perun is good people and allot to open our eyes with here. I'm just not happy in general anymore.
1.5X speed is your friend. Use it.
"Drones have features that are not included in your average human being like zoom vision, or potentially thermal or laser designators" speak for yourself Perun.
I've got bad news.... If you can see in the dark and have been sent back to rescue John Connor, you're probably not human.
😔
🤪 🤣
Well, he did say average
@@sashabraus9422 He needs to get outside more. Didn't nanites in recent injections give everyone infrared-LIDAR-zoom-vision or something?
Can someone comment on whether the Switchblade 600 drones have been effective in destroying Russian mobile artillery?
If these were available in large numbers would they have an impact on the role artillery was playing in coming months?
Can't compliment enough the channel swerve from game content to really high quality and level headed war coverage.
If more "death via powerpoint" were as informative and pertinent, I wouldn't loath the concept as much.
Thank you for setting a positive example on how to make such a presentation.
This channel should be required watching for anybody wanting to understand the war in Ukraine.
You really delve deep into the details and explain things in a clear, unbiased way. Well done.
Nonsense, the infos are a joke and superficial at best if not plainly wrong. You understand nothing when you just watch, since it ignores all the most important parts and even denies facts.
It's pretty much a propaganda channel, making you stupid with lies and half-truth = still lies.
@@miriamweller812 Hello Ivan, did he hurt your feelings?
@@yabutmaybenot.6433 nah he touched him lol
Been having a blast with commenters on other channels calling Perun Ukrainian propaganda lol. Just doing my part
I'm from Ukraine (and in Ukraine), Perun's videos are a must-watch.
As an artillery man myself it's nice to see artillery being discussed so thoroughly on CZcams. It's always the aircraft and tanks that receive most of the attention even though artillery is the true workhorse of the modern battlefield. There was a saying in my battalion that artillery is the queen of the battle and I wholeheartedly agree with that statement. While artillery shells are not exactly cheap they're much cheaper than their alternatives, from 'dumb' bombs dropped from bomber aircraft to a whole variety of rockets, missiles and other munitions, guided and unguided alike. In terms of cost per damage there's nothing as of yet that can outdo the artillery, which is why it's still so important despite a plethora of other weapon systems on the modern battlefield.
Russians now call artillery "The God of War". The tactic to use all other troops just to pin down the enemy and let the artillery do all the killing has been called "Putin's Hammer". Officers are always surprised by the next war. Now the West has suddenly re-discovered artillery.
@@bjorntorlarsson It's not so much that the west rediscovered artillery as much as it is the Russians simply not caring about war crimes and indiscriminately killing civilians. The weakness of artillery has always been its lack of accuracy. There is a pretty significant variation(margin of error if you want the mathematical/statistical term, though it's not really an error) in where artillery shells drop, even when they're absolutely perfectly aimed, which means that there are very significant limitations on which targets you can hit with artillery to prevent any unwanted collateral damage, which in turn greatly limits its effectiveness under normal conditions and why it has taken a back seat to more accurate munitions like smart bombs, guided missiles, etc. When you lift these restrictions and are willing to accept said collateral damage than artillery can resume its role as queen of the battlefield like it has from its inception pretty much back during the medieval era.
I was tentatively agreeing with everything, but as soon as he said "prime mover" I was completely sold. This guy did his research.
As a US Army veteran 13 Bravo (cannon crewman), your analysis was spot on. We "redlegs" have been complaining for YEARS to Uncle Sam about the need for more artillery and more MOBILE artillery. We are finally seeing things like the 105mm Hawkeye, and a wheeled 155mm SP gun. The HIMARS is a very good system that the Army and Marines teamed up and hit the joint chiefs with.
We (NATO) also need to consider putting out the proposed LIMARS (Light Infantry Mobile Artillery Rocket System). This was a proposed HIMARS chassis with a 5"/127mm Zuni rocket head attacked to a new longer rocket motor with a range of 25 to 30km and a magazine capacity of 20 rockets using the SAME loading mechanism as the 227mm HIMARS for logistical commonality. It would provide greater fire volume and less collateral damage than the 227mm rockets do.
I also like the proposal for a Marine Corps infantry support weapon system that could be mounted on a JLTV or Hummer. This concept is a 2-cell box launcher on a 2-m tall extendable boom arm something akin to the old Tow Hammerhead launchers. The launcher's two cells would each hold 20 individual 2.75" Rockets, 4 Hellfire Missiles, or 6 Stinger Missiles. The 2.75" rockets would be used for both direct-fire and indirect fire out to 5 or 6km. This would be a cheap and flexible recon and support weapon system.
Why HIMARS seems to be that much better than anything else? Is it only because of its range?
@@Darhhaall and accuracy plus lightweight
@@Darhhaall The HIMARS is a cousin to the MLRS. The MLRS is tracked and holds 12 227mm rockets in 2 reloadable "cells" that can be individually removed as a single unit (the Soviet Grad has to reload each rocket tube individually) while the HIMARS uses a single identical cell from the MLRS. The HIMARS advantages are...
1) A new advanced fire control.
2) Simplicity. The launcher is simply mounted on a 5-Ton truck which is readily available, cheaper to maintain, and already has a logistics train to support it.
3) Lightweight. It can be airlifted, unlike the MLRS, and more than one can be transported by Marine LCACs.
4) Cost-effective. The HIMARS is much cheaper than the MLRS but has a longer range than a towed 155mm howitzer.
5) Modularity. The HIMARS is being adapted to fire a number of weapons up to and including anti-ship missiles.
6) Speed of reloading. The cell that holds the rockets can be removed as a unit and a new cell installed using the integral boom hoist on the HIMARS launcher's box. The empty box frame/cell can then be reloaded by support personnel at the rear area supply (out of reach of enemy artillery). It takes just a couple of minutes to swap cells and logistics personnel can just lay ammo cells on the ground because both the HIMARS and MLRS can self-load without mechanical assistance. Russian MLRS launchers must load rockets individually, BY HAND! That can take up to an hour for a 300mm rocket launcher.
Most US artillery was developed during the Vietnam era so we definitely need an update.
You could maybe even go smaller; Raytheon claims to have developed a 40mm missile with a 2 mile range called the Pike. Slap a box on the top of every APC and hand out the laser designators like candy.
A bit from other side of former Iron Curtain - while sure, launchers had to load individual rockets, RM-70 and modernised versions like Langusta had/have quickloading mechanism in form of second set of rockets in loading tubes, though after 2 salvos they needed to be rearmed one rocket at the time
Great content (career Field Artillery here) but one technical comment. Gunpowder does NOT detonate. It DEFLAGRATES, which means rapid burning. It's a hot fire that creates massive, rapid gas production that imparts velocity to the projectile.
There is a difference between BOOM and Ka-boom
You want the BOOM here... and the KA-boom waaaayyyy over there.
😁
Cheers
Yep, small but important difference. 😇
I appreciate this level of pedantry!
When I eat too many beans, I too deflagrate 😁
Also it generally has a lot of flame retardant in it. Pictures of artillery firing with big muzzle flames is from photo-ops. You can spot the combat photos in the video by how the muzzle produces black-grey smoke instead of fire.
On an unrelated note, it's funny to see that the Russians have kept the artillery tactics they used in the Winter war. Just lob a whole bunch of rounds on the enemy, hitting stuff seems to really be a secondary concern 😄
Also interesting to see that Ukraine is using very similar artillery tactics to what the Finnish defence force uses. The focus was very much on precision fire and battery mobility. The bare minimum was that you had to be able to put out 6 rounds in a minute inside a 100x100 meter box. Oh and that was with towed Soviet 122 and 152 mm towed guns with corrections done with pen and paper.
And obviously the FDF is not preparing to go to war without electronic correction. But there's a definite advantage to training with manual systems.
Bro the more in depth analysis is GREATLY appreciated. The longer run time allows me to handle other things in my own time while I digest the info. All without having to dive into CZcams and find another video. Also I find your wise cracks hilarious. Usually humor during these types of things feels forced and is lost on me. But I've spit my coffee a few times listening to you. Keep it up!
It's crazy how you alone process the amount of information needed to put this together, without speaking Russian and Ukrainian. Or you do? In any case, please keep doing your magic!
"Could be a bunch of Russians walking around the forests smoking cigarettes and carrying gasoline."
Really undermined yourself with this one. Loitering about a bucket of gasoline is THE #1 Russian Passtime. Closest second? Blasting cigs.
Appreciate your honesty, though. True integrity. True integrity.
Underrated post. Thanks for the laugh.
Of cause they are running around with Jerry cans of petrol. Looking for Byers! See Perun's corruption video!
Hilarious comment. "Blasting cigs" is a phrase that could only be used in Australia or the UK.
My random thought about the very busy HIMARS- even though Ukraine only has 4, there is nothing saying that they only have 4 crews. They may have more, potentially waiting for the rest to ship over or just trained at the same time so they have extra, and they could always have one crew operate till they get tired, hand off to another crew who will do the same, and take some rest until they are needed again to keep the system itself constantly in motion. There then becomes the logistical challenge to catching that crew back up with the system, but that may be trouble that they are willing to go to for that capability.
Ukraine only admits to having four HIMARS.
If you watched vids where civilians filmed HIMARS on the move you often can spot a bus tailing the system. I think that they drive 2-3 crews for a single system everywhere.
Or you can have several drivers and a single firing crew which rest during moving part of this arson extravaganza.
@@MegaWizarrd was that video filmed in this conflict?
@@maeton-gaming yup, you can clearly hear Ukrainian language from civis car, also its vids of a random encounter and not firing.
I love your articles for the depth and excellent research. One consideration for artillery can be their unit cost plus maintenance. I understand why the US spent about 2 to 4X the price on the 777 (compared to other howitzers). The lighter weight comes at a cost but a pair can be airlifted in US cargo aircraft, a single one can be lifted by helicopter... both important for quick deployment in a world-wide defense strategy. Self propelled are wonderful but the Panzerhaubitze 2000 supposedly costs 10X the price. There's also the logistics that most bridges can barely handle the 2000's 60 tons much less its transport vehicle.
This channel really puts into perspective just how far North American journalism has moved from squeezing out reports to squeezing out viewership
As an irrelevant sidenote, Finland does have an artillery capacity comparable to the Ukrainian one before the war.
Not irrelevant at all. Think stockpile adjustment is needed all over.
I've met Finnish artillery officers. 22 years ago. At that time they had not adopted GPS gun-laying sysytems. I'm sure they've come around to my way of thinking in the meantime!
It is higher than that, I believe.
Artillery was the decisive factor in the success of the defensive battles on the Karelian isthmus during the summer of 1944.
Finnish artillery doctrine is always been precision, so alot of guns but not huge ammount of shells for the gun. Finland should really start to stock up for the ammunition.
@@ashcarrier6606 a finn here, while I don't know the specifics the army does take pride in it's artillery so I'd be damn surprised if they didn't have GPS at this point.
I was an artillery man for 15 years, and this analyzis is pretty much spot on. Only missing a couple of nerd details, but very important if you want high precision, that is High precision geodesic terrain maps and barometric data.
Another place where Ukraine is likely to have a meaningful home field advantage. Though you'd have thought that the Russians inherited the soviet maps.
From what I've heard Ukraine has been preparing precision maps since the 2014 invasion.
Florian: Sure russians inherited soviet maps. Maps 30+ years old. With no where near the accuracy of newer GPS / satellite geolocation maps. Before 2014 war russia sent in "Little Green Men" to scope out the terrain.
@@PodreyJenkin138 they in fact dont. Or like one sat pass every 3 days
They do but nowhere nearly as effective.
Perun is making them longer and full of information! Love them. This is not too long it is GREAT!
I am impressed with the length of this one, and I don't see how it could have done in less time without sacrifice. Thank you Perun.
Excellent presentation as always.
If I heard it correctly you stated that EXCALIBUR is basically any normal shell equipped with a guidance kit. If that was your statement I believe that you've confused the M982 Excalibur dedicated extended range guided projectile with the M1156 PGK (Precision Guidance Kit) which is basically an extended fuse assembly incorporating guidance fins that can be screwed into any 155mm shell converting a conventional shell into a precision shell. The M982 Excalibur shell incorporates extended fins that allow it to add a glide component to its trajectory extending its range. The M982 is more accurate than a conventional shell equipped with the M1156 PGK but is also much more expensive. The M1156 PGK is specified to achieve a CEP of 30m but has often done much better than that in tests. The M982 is specified for a CEP of 4m, and also has generally done better than that in tests. For comparison, the CEP of a 155mm unguided shell at extreme range is on the order of 250-300m. The advantage of the PGK within its range limitation is that it is MUCH cheaper than Excalibur (about 10-20% of the cost depending on which estimates you use.) I have seen any specific mention of the M1156 PGK being supplied to Ukraine, though I hope we have supplied it.
A factor that you mostly glanced over in your comparison is the difference in the artillery tactics of both sides. The deficiency on the Russian side was apparent early in the war during the assault on Kiev. The Russian BTG theoretically had more than adequate artillery support integral to each BTG. In many ways that resembled the organization of an American Armored Cavalry Squadron (Battalion) in an Armored Cavalry Regiment (such as 11th ACR) in the Fulda Gap. Each of those had a tank company (troop), a scout company (troop), and an artillery battery (troop) of six guns. The problem for the Russians is that they didn't know how to quickly bring the fires of their artillery to bear. It was not that there weren't enough guns present. This was as much proof their weak grasp of combined arms tactics as was their shortage of infantry.
Now the Russians are back to using massed artillery fires in a style reminiscent of WWII though with FAR less guns. They are employing guns by battery (six guns) or battalion (18 guns) and seem to be relying on massive preplanned fires primarily. They seem to have retained the Soviet inability to quickly engage targets of opportunity. They are doing some quick response fire particularly when they can get a laser equipped targeting drone, but the vast majority of their fires appear to be area fires. Support for my characterization is that while the Ukrainians are complaining of a shortage of AMMUNITION they are not complaining of a shortage of guns (of the former Soviet variety.)
The Russian's artillery tactics have been able to force the Ukrainians back slowly, but they have not produced any major breakthroughs for rapid advances into Ukrainian territory.
The Ukrainians have employed much more flexible tactics from the beginning. They have been employing single guns or two gun sections frequently. They've been doing a lot of "shoot and scoot" from the beginning. This is particularly true with their new Western Guns. Even the M777's are being used that way, though obviously they can't carry it off as well as the self-propelled guns. The Ukrainians have been aided in this by the comparatively low ability of the Russians counter battery fire. The Russians seem to be short of fire direction radars, and those that they have appear to be slow reacting. The Ukrainians tendency to conduct fire missions with dispersed single guns, or pairs of guns, may well contribute to the slow Russian response since it's much harder to define the target coordinates.
Ukrainian Fire Control / Fire Management software is apparently very well developed and has been networked via Starlink. It allows the Ukrainians to quickly respond to fire requests. When it's working well it has enabled them to respond within 30 seconds, and generally within 5 minutes based on what I've seen described. Here the Ukrainians again have an advantage over the Russians in that their communications have been, and apparently still are, better than those of the Russians.
While I doubt that there is open source information available to accurately evaluate their full impact these differences in tactics it's important to remember them when looking at numbers of shells being fired. The Ukrainians appear to be targeting specific targets even when using unguided munitions while the Russians appear to be more often selecting area targets. The differences in approach will result in significantly different rates of projectile consumption. Of conventional MLRS systems like the Grad will only ever be area weapons.
The workload on the HIMARS systems does not appear to me to be that extreme, particularly if they are employing multiple crews (which would make sense both from a reduction of fatigue standpoint, and from the standpoint of training additional crews to man future acquisitions of HIMARS and M270 MLRS --- kind of "on the job" training!) It would be a rare target that would require more than 2-3 rockets, and so a single pod should suffice to take out two targets. Deep targets must generally have located well before the mission is assigned. The rockets can be preprogrammed with target coordinates before arriving at the firing site. Once the launcher arrives it needs a very short time to confirm its location. Then all the rockets can be launched with 30 seconds or so, and the launcher depart to reload. Surely this process could be repeated at least once during the hours of darkness. Assuming only two pods used per night, each system could tackle 4-6 targets a night or 16-24 for the four existing launchers (soon to be 8). The real trick for doing this (assuming that you know accurately where you are --- easy for HIMARS with its GPS system) is having accurate locations for the target, and I suspect that much of that is being done by Ukrainian Special Operations troops, particularly for targets on the on the Ukrainian side of the border. One good thing about things like major ammunition depots is they are not easy to move, and the Russians have long tended to go for a few large depots, which make nice targets.
These are not meant to be any major disagreements with your analysis, but only additional data.
Wow, what a comment! Usually I pass over such lengthy comments, but yours was quite interesting and informative. Wrt to towable artie and avoiding counterbattery fire, I was told it was possible to create a series of prepared and concealed emplacements for a towed battery, and to rotate your battery among them. A well trained and experienced crew can limber and unlimber quickly (I am told) and move the battery to a new emplacement after each gun getting off one or two shots. The emplacements need not be very far apart. Several hundred meters to a kilometer would be sufficient.
The upshot (no pun intended) is that towed artillery doesn’t have to be that much slower than SPGs.
Both ^ great comments! This reminds me of the old days on Internet where actually almost only nerds had access and would know what they’re talking about and stay shut when they realised they are ignorant in the subject...
Excellent contribution Ralph.
Great insight, thank you sir
Problem with towed artillery is (competent) counter-battery fire.
From the first shot fired, an artillery radar can follow the projectile and calculate the trajectory. This takes at least 10 seconds to get a precise enough resolution to pinpoint the exact firing location.
Then that has to be translated into an artillery fire mission. This step might be done in a few seconds, through networked data-transfer straight to the suitable battery, or several minutes or even hours using runners and manual artillery tables. In short, this is what shows the greatest variance in threat level to your own guns.
Lastly, which varies the least, the flight time of the counter-battery shells. Pretty much like the WWII FlaK fire, that's the limiting factor in how effective counter-battery fire can become. No matter how fast the piece is located and fired upon, it'll take about a minute before the shells lands.
The Haubits 77 (FH-77) was a really good artillery piece as towed artillery is considered, even had a small engine to let move shorter distances on it's own. Still, it would take about 2 minutes to pack up and start relocating under the best of conditions.
The Archer on the other hand can reliably be moving in below 40 seconds in all but the most severe conditions. At the modest speed of 10 m/s, that allows 200 metre distance from the firing position before the magic minute is up, while the towed piece is still limbering up.
Artillery.
Ah yes i always wanted an hour long powerpoint about artillery.
Beeg gun go boom
@@bigbluebuttonman1137 no big gun go "DOoOoM"
Why is this content so good ? Let me count the ways. Perun takes the time to get into the topic; his pieces combine battlespace, economics, manufacturing and procurement; his argument logic and asssumptions are clear. Overall its next level informative and enlightening. If I could, I'ld buy him a beer. Cheers !
Perun. Every week I look forward to these presentations. Ty
Excellent as always. However I have noticed the runtime creeping up over the last few videos. Are you preparing us for the 3 hour Global Oil Industry special you promised? If so, bring it on! :-D
Time to get the popcorn 🍿
“Pricing Mechanisms In The Global Market”
or
“How I learned to stop worrying and get 1,000,000 CZcams views.”
I would love a Global oil industry special
we do need a special on the global oil industry and the rising trends
Well if anyone can pull it of successfully......PERUN👏👏👏
Thanks once again for making all of us look smarter when we talk about this stuff with friends.
I think the most interesting part of artillery warfare going forward is going to be systems like the switchblade 600. A man portable system that could be deployed even behind enemy lines with a 25 mile range will have devastating effects on counter battery and SEAD missions.
As usual - high quality material, clearly sourced, with appropriate caveats where needed, and reasoned conclusions. Some of the absolute best content I've found on CZcams.
The Soviet's and therefore Russians never scrap artillery. It is always kept as a reserve.
The German WW2 Kursk offensive that started in the first week of July 1943, the Soviets defended with over 28,000 towed and ~1,000 rocket MLRS systems.
To say the Soviet's/ Russian love artillery is an understatement.
Ay but do they have the shells? That isn't cheap to supply and store. No Soviet stock of that is still fit for use.
@@ZontarDow true. Storage conditions really matter. Under poor storage conditions and lack of maintenance (as has been the case for a lot of Russian equipment), systems really start to break down. The older artillery pulled out of reserves probably has even worse accuracy than the already poor accuracy figures they are supposed to have due to poor storage conditions. They may have a lot of shells in storage but how many of them are still safe to use (won't just go boom in your own face when you try to shoot it?).
I would think that some of the Soviet stock is still fit for use but a good portion of it is not.
Akimov's holy trinity: cigs, vodka, & 2S7M.
@@ZontarDow For everything no, but it is quicker & easier in a time of war to produce shells for stockpiled cannons than build the cannons themselves.
and yet they still lost 24mil people in WW2. They lost 890k people in Kursk alone.
Best military analysis at the moment. Incredible really. Better than all these so called "expert" military analysts trotted out.
The analysis of the Austrian Army (Österreichisches Bundesheer) are really good too.
@@Shadow25720 Exactly. And they're also available in English. I was about to ask Ronald Chin, whether he's seen them already. But he's right, that the mass of "analysis" is of really low quality.
Once I saw an "analysis" of one of the German Springer media and asked myself, when they're going to hire professionals, which at least try to dig into the stuff they're reporting about. But right now it has the quality of asking a random neighbour at the BBQ about what's going on in the Ukraine and what kind of weapons and strategies the sides are using.
This analysis is as good as (or better than) the kinds of briefings you might get in the actual military about relevant events in an area of operations. Very impressive stuff.
@@4lpha0ne yes it's appalling
@@4lpha0ne The Springer "press" does hire professionals it's just that most of them specialise in distracting the public on command to push their agenda and disrupt public discourse about it. The best that could happen to the German press at large would be a nice impact event flash frying enough of them to dissolve this heinous institution for good even if it would give credence to some religious nutcases.
1. Some old systems like medium and heavy mortars (and M2HB WW1 HMG's and MG3(MG42) WW2 GPMG's are just fine. PGMs like STRIX or MERLIN can be fired from any old mortar.
2. If I was in charge I would train 12 Himars crews and rotate them on the 4 launchers rather than let just 4 crews fight till they drop.
3. Back in the day during the cold war the pre-planned task for the strongest unit in the Danish Army - the Jutland Division, was to mobilize, rush down to the Lüneburger Heide, dig in and wait. It was estimated that if the Warshaw packt decided try to break though there the initial artillery barrage was expected to only leave 10% of the troops able to effectively resist - from positions with overhead cover. Quantity is a quality in itself.
Just a pedantic point, the .50 Browning water-cooled HMG was initially brought into service in small numbers from 1923, so not WW1, though the requirement dated from 1917. Also a derivative of the Browning short recoil design like the M1917A1 and M1919. The M2HB was developed and fielded in 1933 with two alternate guns, a water-cooled AA gun and an air-cooled a/c gun with a 36" barrel. Static positions could bring back the water-cooled rifle caliber MG, as I have seen pictures of 7.62x54R Maxim PM1910 MGs in Ukraine service.
Incredible stuff. Honestly I learn a whole lot more from these videos than anywhere else on YT. And that's from someone that follows a lot of analysis channels. Nothing compares to this IMHO. Always look forward to anything from Perun. 👍👍👍
My grandfather was a commander of the Canadian Artillery in WWI (the “rolling barrage”) and fought in almost all of the Canadian operations. In WWII, he was with the Allied Command in London. I would love to hear his opinion of your analysis - I think he would approve.
what was his name?
What was he doing on the wrong side of WW1?
@@peterfireflylund He should have been on the losing side?
Would love to hear any war stories from your relative
@@michaelhellwinkle9999 This being the Internet, I’d rather not say. I’ll clarify “a commander” to “a Captain”. M.C. With bar. If Canadian medal terminology is familiar to you.
How does he pull together all this material so quickly?????? Magnificent
He's like a one man think tank.
His videos are basically just screen recordings of powerpoints with him talking over. So he probably does little to no real editing, so he can focus only on research.
He must have been studying military logistics for ages before the war. This is not something you can research your way into in a week or two.
@@peterfireflylund I disagree. One can do highly effective research over a short period of time if one is a highly skilled researcher and has access to sources of information.
The vast majority of production time is research - and I have pretty good systems in place for knowing where I'm going to harvest information from and what my validation/caveating process is. Not having to do stock footage/animation the way other channels do saves me a lot of time. I was worried when I started that no one would watch a slide-deck, but if I had to do more complex visuals I'd have to either shorten these a lot, or cut down on release frequency.
Saving to watch later, I'm a former M777 platoon leader.
Btw my church is a Ukrainian Greek Catholic cathedral and it's the most beautiful church I have ever been in (haven't been to Rome yet). Wish the Latin Churches I grew up in were that beautiful.
This was the video I was looking for.
No media was covering that actual king of battlefield is not NLAWs but ARTILLERY
The first time I can contribute to a video. When it comes to barrel life span, there are many variables that can affect the lifespan and EFC is a great "one-size-fits-all" value, however the fire rate, the time between "shots" and the charge level of each shot is a factor; the hotter the barrel gets, the more aggressive the "wearing out" will become.
It will be interesting to read the post war BDA reports; however, thank you Perun for your efforts!
PS - in mid 70s, our destroyer was routinely tasked to pickup small lots of 5 inch ammunition at Naval Weapons Seal Beach, CA and take rounds to San Clemente island range to fire and record results round by round with the help of USMC spotters. Looking at manufacturer date codes, depot was checking usability of 1950s through 1960s era rounds. We didn’t care as testing out our 5-inch/38-caliber guns was always exciting. Loading the ships magazines by hand at pier side was the only downside.
PS2 - Long Beach Naval Shipyard had to replace the barrels on our mounts during an upkeep due to excess wear. Of course USN had plenty of these NOS barrels from WW2.
Always wondered what those bunkers stored
@Commander Russian Waifu 🇷🇺 He should move to Russia, where his wife is from. He is a nothing... a never was inspector that the USMC dumped like trash, so now he is mad.
@Commander Russian Waifu 🇷🇺 You mean the guy working for Russia spreading propaganda after he in 2012 was convicted for childsex offenses
I wish we shared a pub, it would be great talking to you in person.
I dont know anyone else who thinks about these things.
And yes, another pilsner is a good idea .
That 21m kill/60m wound box is cut by 50-75% just by being prone.
It doesn't take a 2m trench to greatly reduce you chanced of injury from enemy attack.
Yes, it does, if the missiles are thermobaric.
I have a suspicion, the main reason a lot of nations have relatively small stockpiles of ammo, is that it is less visible. When the inevitable budget cut happens, it is much easier for the staff to, just procure less ammo, instead of letting weapon systems go. You see that a lot in Western European nations, such as the Netherlands. Another factor is that in major conflicts, the US is often willing to provide the ammo.
this is accurate, the Canadian military has beef having ammo and fuel shortages for years. When the government says you're getting less money but need to maintain current abilities they never mention how long a unit has to maintian its capability. So you let stockpiles go down while using whatever you have left to keep the troops trained and the equipment (sort of) running and hope you'll have time to restock before a war.
Yep - it's very impressive to say you have 500 leopard tanks, 1000 GigaChad MLRS Systems, etc... it's less impressive to say you have 50,000,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition and you can't exactly put the ammunition on parade.
@@SittingOnEdgeman we really should just do parades showing off ammo rather than vehicles
@@fulcrum2951 How though? not even the russians can make their warehouses with literal kilotons worth of artilery shells mobile... warehouse tours though...
@@Destroyer_V0 put them on essentially enlarged versions of trolley wagons
Anyone else wait anxiously every Sunday for the Perun post? Every time I am blown away by these and gorge on them the moment they land!
As they've got longer, I do have to check their length and schedule the time. It's the only CZcams video that I would consider doing this for
One of the very best holistic analyses available in open forum. Very methodical and factually logical.
Amazing video as always. I hear this as a podcast on my way to work when you upload. It really goes into depth and in a way people who have no military background can understand.
As an ex dropshort myself . This brought back memories of battery and regimental logistics planning lectures. In particular the long term maintenance of our M2a2 105s. Ours were ex vietnam pieces and well worn. But with live fire training at a minimum due to budget constraints. Most of our m2a2 csualties were from careless clutch fuckers jacknifing causing trail damage which would put whole gun out of whack requiring a full rebuild.
As usual another brilliant analysis. If your work here doesn't become part of syllabus at Duntroon something is badly wrong.
A thousand and six thankyuz for your work .
A hilarious result of these lectures is everyone at my local pub comes to me with all their Ukraine war questions.😂
“Careless clutch fuckers.” Lol that’s a good one!
The only casualty I recall with that gun is when a platoon budy rolled it over their foot during exercise
@@valentinaskazimieras had our share of that too plus the odd crook back from lifting ammo boxes.😂
I was hoping Richard Marles would call up Perun instead of Steven Smith
whats Duntroon?
A dry dock and a Perun video in the same day? Oh yes please!
2 very good channels.
@@theodoresmith5272 what ia the full name of channel?
@@alpexoid1 drachinifel a very good marine historian that has had some really good guests on. The zero, Guadalcanal series, carrier vs carriers in 1942 series and having john parshall on for a talk on midway are probably my favorites.
On Sundays he answers questions on all types of stuff and calls it his dry dock show.
Perun's Slideshows and Drach's Drydocks are always uploaded on Sunday. So Sunday is always a great day.
And here I was wondering how much overlap the two channels have. LOL.
@Perun
Russia has 1 facility, with 2 maybe 3 reboring machines to re tool there barrels. Capacity will be an issue for them.
Superb analysis Perun, as usual. This is something that should be mandatory viewing for students on the Artillery Staff Duties courses across NATO. Gets to a lot of points fast, and orients detailed training (as noted by many of your commentators below).
Especially strong point about getting the Ukrainians to train NATO on actually doing the job as well. Some real Lessons Learned to be actioned there. NATO nations seem to be artillery adverse. Part of this is the preponderance of Infantry officers ascending to senior leadership. Infantry leaders tend to shy away from both tanks and artillery , especially artillery, in procurement as it is fundamentally detached from general manoeuvre arms training in peacetime. This has been reflected in the prioritization of CRAM (Counter Rocket /Artillery /Mortar) systems. Which leads to my final point, battlefield geometry.
That interplay of Artillery "checking" ground based air defence, ranges for counter battery, reach into logistic and C2 depth, has been vastly under appreciated in the asymmetric battlefields for the last 30 years. This return to what was considered by many and outmoded linear battlespace has taken a lot of people by surprise. Glad you brought it up. BZ
"M???-Rocket technical
Russians will claim it as HIMARS when destroyed"
That's just such an equal opportunity pisstake, so true, and so hilarious, I had to stop the video for a good minute.
M??? Technical hehe.
I remember theres also footage of a MTLB with heli rocket pods slapped on being used as an MLRS.
Ngl the kit bashing ukraine is doing is quite good.
@@davidty2006 My favorite part about that video is he says 'the little bees are looking for honey' or something along those lines.
@@davidty2006 the kitbashing is f'ing beutiful
@@tatianatub Kit bashing brings the best and the worst of human creation.
Why else does r/shittytechnicals exist.
Perun.
First class video and content as always.
As a former artilleryman, really appreciate the discussion on barrel life. I would think this will be a real test of how much quality control there is in Russian steel making and how much the corruption discussed in your other video affects and has affected all those Russian and Soviet guns. Seems like the Russians might not be having to use as many full charge, therefore EFC hits to their barrels if they are doing more close fire support with more guns, but still its going to add up. Its really heartening to see the Western help has thought about barrels and getting them enough ammo for the tubes supplied. Very happy to see you continue beating the drum about logistics and sustainment. Find your videos more competent than most anything else in the media I've seen.
I'm wondering if the 24 hour nature of UA HIMARS is not no sleep for crews, but having blue and gold crews like a sub. Easier to get people trained like that, than the establishing the huge log train for ammo for more launchers at least at first. Also, if I was in charge, I'd be getting some guys trained up enough to train more guys (the trainers will be sleep-deprived I bet), and then rotate as many arty guys through OJT using these things in combat. Rinse and repeat for every other Western system supplied. From what I've seen, one can only underestimate the UA's ability to pick-up and use equipment at a really scary pace. The UA, like you say will be training NATO at the end of this on everything - I'd argue they'll be able teach the Israelis a thing or two as well.
The best maintenance mechanics in the world will be in UA mechanized forces. All kinds of equipment and limited resources and time in a shooting war.
From the manpower video, I should think the artillery specialists would be top priority in an artillery-based army, be interesting to know whether this arm is better off, than others, or just like them in terms of manpower and training issues. There was a video on WW2TV about a year ago that is very relevant to the discussion here, taking a hard look at Soviet artillery in WW2. Couple key points are that Soviet average caliber was 76mm not 105mm like the Germans, and that a big factor in success/failure of even late war offensive AND huge casualties was never having good enough fire direction and flexibility. Also 55% of chemicals for the explosives for ammo was lend lease. Hard to move a chemical industry. This is well sourced, and probably the best technical video I watched last year: czcams.com/video/SQr-Jgd4th0/video.html
What's connective here is the reversal - now the Russians with less manpower and fighting with a semi-peacetime army are in a reversed position from the WW2 Soviet Union - partly because of that experience and all the casualties. There a lot of general points that are as applicable now as they were 80 years ago.
The other take-away I get here is a little like the discussion about the tank is dead, only in reverse - airpower is not everything. Sure its vitally important, but how sustainable is it really in near peer conflict, for all the reasons discussed? I would argue a good case has been made that more emphasis should go to precision artillery in the form of MRLS and SP tube systems like the PzrH2000.
I think of it like comparing subs to aircraft carriers. A what if thought experiment from history, quite pertinent to an Australian, to illustrate the point - what-if Imperial Japan had gone land-based air, not strayed outside their ability to do that in their conquests and gone massive on long range subs?
The Germans for all their problems as you discussed in the last video, have in my view put the US Army procurement system to shame twice in the last 40 or so years: the Gepard verses the DIVAD, and the PzrH2000 verses the multiple failures to field an equivalent in the last 20 odd years. There are people that should be in prison for this, full stop, but then that's the corruption of the US Defense procurement system for you. Probably a career ending video if you covered that subject, no? XD.
Artillery and especially PGM artillery is all well and good as long as the targets are stationary. Tanks and other vehicles move however and by the time Ubique can deliver its billets d'amour on an observed and designated target location the targets may not be there any more -- see also Archer and other shoot-and-scoot artillery systems which are meant to get the hell out of Dodge after firing to avoid counter-battery fire.
Modern 21st century air-to-ground missile systems such as Brimstone actively track their targets and can basically follow a designated target through a revolving door and up the staircase to get a kill. This is not something artillery can do -- even laser-guided PGM artillery requires a spotter close to the target to keep it illuminated until impact since the shells have no active tracking systems built-in unlike Brimstone et al. Firing off a couple of Brimstones from an aircraft forty kilometres away and fifteen kilometres up is a lot cheaper in terms of battlefield logistics than a battalion of howitzers firing hundred and fifty shells over a thirty minute period close to the front line in the hope that one or two shells actually hit the target before it gets away or the counter-battery fire starts arriving on your location.
"Also, if I was in charge, I'd be getting some guys trained up enough to train more guys (the trainers will be sleep-deprived I bet), and then rotate as many arty guys through OJT using these things in combat. Rinse and repeat for every other Western system supplied."
From what I've gathered watching open source commenters since the start of the war, this is kind of what is being done. Take the artillerymen being trained inside the UK for example, and extended backwards in time the entire British program from 2015 to train as many Ukrainian instructors as possible.
@@robertsneddon731 There are a couple models of 155mm rounds, one from EU and one from Sweden I think, that have autonomous homing anti-armor submunitions. I don't think they've been among the mentioned support to Ukraine yet though.
@@concinnus There are claims (unverified) that the Ukrainians have fired at least some SMArt rounds from their PZH-2000s against armoured targets. I won't mention them in a video until verified though.
@@PerunAU Boom if true.
And aside from that SMArt claim on reddit, there's another video claiming to be BONUS on twitter.
I really enjoyed this one. You did an excellent job on this, expecially the War Economics part.
It's actually just like a game in Wargame: Red Dragon or now Warno.
If it's to dangerous for you to send in your planes, get some artillery and barrage the whole sector!
I was serving on M777A2 for 4 years, including one year in a combat zone. Counterbattery is hard. A lot depends on observes and their knowledge. As you mentioned, we can fire all day long, but if call was off, we can't do much as a gun crew. Also it was funny for me to hear that Russia "suddenly" found out that Ukraine can actually shoot back in Russia territory supply depots.
As a former FO I'm both saddened about the specialty going away and also excited to see the advancements. I would *love* to adjust some fire from a drone now. (I'm jealous)
You would love to go to war and adjust artillery fire? You serious?
Stealth planes did not replace non-stealthy planes either. BVR missiles did not make ACM-skills become extinct. Tanks did not remove the need for infantry and MLRS did not make artillery guns redundant.
Drone-operating FOs are, imho, merely a niche specialty within the FO specialty.
@@isn0t42
He's a former FO.
That was literally his job!
The FO specialty is not going away, just changing, I'd say.
(after all, even a drone operator needs to control it from a safe spot - and in a decade, every squad will have a jammer against enemy drones, so it'll still be legwork, I predict)
@@isn0t42 Training on a live fire range.
Great analysis as always! In addition to current Ukrainian soviet artillery ammo problem, many Ukrainian storages were blown up between 2014-2022, and current events explains pretty clearly who and why did that.
Well done Perun. Excellent work.
Like a godsend. Just this morning I started wondering about artillery and especially their wear & tear. You managed to clarify everything. Thanks so much!
Ryan McBeth has some good short artillery videos on some of the individual topics covered here.
I'm always surprised how you absolutely blow every news network out of the water with this excellently researched content. You could be a weakly segment on a major news network.
Richly informative presentation. It seems to be a very well thought out and fair representation of dozens of relevant factors. Thank you. It was well worth the time spent trying to absorb it all.
Looking at the news today, I would say that HIMARS is indeed making a massive difference. UAF is basically going through the list of Russian ammo dumps with a thick red marker.
Precisely. It takes very few HIMARS with enough rockets and missiles to make a massive Russian artillery advantage suddenly weak. You can't fire what you don't have, and any large ammo supply inside Ukraine is now going to be a target for destruction. No one had HIMARS capabilities in WWII. These things are game changers.
And this channel previously said it wouldn't
@@qaipak1 people make mistakes, sadly.
Is that the same news that told you the russian economy is on the brink of collapse ? Or the one that said the russian military is so weak it will crumble after a few weeks?
Does this include dumps on Russian territory?
"I'm not sure the Ukrainian force actually sleep." That sounds about right for any artillery unit. 😂
I can tell you that I got average of 2 hours of sleep on 5 day trips to forest in Finnish military but I wasn't in the artillery so don't know how much those guys got to sleep.
Amazing work! Thank you for the content!
I served as an 0811 cannon crewman in the US Marines until 2010. Towards the end of my service is when my unit received M777s and I got trained on the things, and it's been pretty interesting to me to see those systems in action now. I idly wonder if the cannon I used 12 years ago in the USMC might have gotten donated to the Ukrainians now that the USMC is dramatically shaking up its force structure.
I really enjoyed this video, and I even thought to myself "well, the Russians don't care about accuracy" and then immediately after I thought that, you explain why accuracy still matters even to them. That said, there's a really neat middle-ground between the relatively expensive Excalibur rounds and general dumb 155mm shells. There's the M1156 Precision Guidance Kit ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1156_Precision_Guidance_Kit )which is a fuze you can screw onto dumb shells that has fins and a guidance system. It drops the CEP from a couple hundred meters down to about 30-50m. Not as good as the Excalibur, but those have fins in the shell body, and are more expensive to produce. PGKs you can throw onto any of the existing stocks of dumb 155mm HE shells and get greatly improved accuracy out of them. Dropping the CEP by an order of magnitude will do wonders on number of shells needed to achieve kills, and greatly extend the lifespan of howitzer barrels.
I've read somewhere that newer versions of the PGK have dropped the CEP down significantly, as well. The ability to (relatively) cheaply convert dumb shells into guided ones is such a massive game-changer, right alongside the implementation of JDAM kits to turn old dumb bombs into highly accurate guided ordinance.
Could you do the spotting with artillery radar? I guess this should give quite accurate adjustment after first shell. Wiki says the USA could track shells in flight by the end of WW2 (soon after radar started to use wavelength shorter than diameter of the shell).
CEP of hundreds of meters, yikes.
I love the optimism the pros and the cons of both sides of the situation and it sounds most accurate it's pretty authentic for the most part as far as the information provided it's always two to three sides of a story and I think you did a good job of that to inform those who are willing to be informed good job
on the 15th minute when you wrote "still not a faint", I couldn't hold myself chuckling a bit... "I'm still a master strategist" :D
I've literally never heard him talk about how the VDV wiped out Operational Group West and North of the Ukranian Armed Forces ;) Yeah, the VDV got spanked - but two entire UAF commands never phoned home again. Really makes ya think ;)
@@maeton-gaming all I see from you is junk food, no substance.
@@maeton-gaming he didn't mention it because it never happened:)
@@maeton-gaming sources
@@maeton-gaming maybe since it did not happen not even Russia is claiming that and they are making bogus claim all the time
As always an interesting video. There's nothing else like it, the long form, the analytical strategic level take, that I've found. Keep up the good job
Michael Kofman is also extremely good, but he doesn't have a channel, just does interviews and long talks :)
This was a very interesting video, thank you for that!
Detailed, technical - well explained
Best quality broadcast I've seen yet. Good job guys.
Once again I got sucked in for way over an 1hour when I intended to listen to the first 10 minutes. Brilliantly researched , written and narrated. Keep doing us Aussies proud. Cheers.
I don’t know how much work goes into these videos, but it seems like a hell of a lot. These are the most comprehensive videos out there. You’ve done an amazing job. Thank you for all that you do.
I like being the dumb guy in the room learning from people. This is why this channel is so great.
You sir are doing a yeoman's job! Just outstanding. I have been here watching your subs shoot up and no one deserves it more. Thank you for your thoughtful, well balanced, and knowledgeable presentations.
A very good and thorough presentation, as always. It's a pleasure to watch - thank you 👏🏻👏🏻