ALL successful self taught programmers have survivorship bias!
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- čas přidán 5. 04. 2024
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This is so true. I'm self-taught with unrelated degrees. I get hit up regularly by other aspiring self-taught and even CS grads. They asked me how i did it, and i told them i used to put 15 hour days in learning employable CS skills, practicing for interviews and making projects, etc. Months/years later, i see they still have half-baked projects and a terrible resume, either still unemployed complaining about the job market or working in an entirely different field. This isn't the get rich quick career path that so many think it is. There's no way around the hard work that goes into this field
how did you balance between work and studying ?
A lot of psychology concepts exist just to make sure that they exist when we are looking for them. They can apply to a lot of situations, including survivorship biais, but it doesn't mean that every single successful person is victim of that. It's more like :"hey, you've been very successful, and a lot of that comes from your hardwork and your efforts, but be careful of taking into account other people's reasons that contributed into their failure too when trying to motivate them"
So the idea here, is just not to dismiss other people struggles and misfortunes, but rather take that into account when giving a message of positivity. For example instead of saying "hey, if I can do it, you can do it too, and if you don't then you didn't do enough effort", it's better to say: "look, you've been throught a lot of unfortunate events, and I understand that, but let's try to do our best to overcome them. With enough devotion, we should be able to overcome that"
Did not think that way! Thanks for this.
What I admire about you is that you can pivot. It is so hard to be flexible in today's society. I think the risks are so high in making a change that many feel it isn't worth it. However, you are able to focus, manage the risk, and succeed! Thank you for taking us on your journey!
I have to disagree with this, I just worked hard narrative. I hear it everywhere but if "hard work" is all anything ever took than roofers in Arizona would be rich cause few people work ever that hard in their lifetime. Many people work their a** off and don't make it. Not everyone finds those opportunities. Many people work hard for years and don't find the payoff they were looking for. Not just coding but I've seen people do youtube for years and never find over 1k subscribers. They pump out video's according to their talents but they just aren't accepted by the community at large.
Claiming it's not survivorship and it's just hard work is claiming you just worked harder than everyone that didn't make it. Highly unlikely. This isn't an excuse for people to not work hard to accomplish their dreams, it's just a reality of the world.
Learning and having an opportunity is different. I can learn a language but not have an opportunity to find a job as an interpreter.
Mmmmh, not sure if your example is good, but roofers make a lot of money. Most blue collar jobs pay a lot as less people want to do these jobs.... Hard work is needed
Dorian mentioned in another video that he won a mathematics Olympiad during high school. This suggests that even as a teenager, he demonstrated a strong aptitude for logic, despite later deviating from that path.
It's evident that he put in significant effort to transition into the IT industry after his 30s. However, it's important to acknowledge that not everyone possesses a naturally well-structured and methodical mindset.
working hard on the right things to maximize your chances for a better job, not just working hard. Also opportunity is where networking comes in and thus = working hard at networking.
get the skill by learning and working hard to get good at that skill then get a skill to be good at networking and apply it until you get the opportunity and then work hard to keep that position and thrive. Working hard is still the key but not the only thing.
Also other would have to work harder to get the % chance of succeeding than some because they learn slower or are not good at networking etc.
Its all about giving yourself permission to become that thing.
I started watching you in 2020, since then I went from $13 an hour angsty office grunt, to a project coordinator, to senior IT Consultant, to Data Analyst, to a Data Engineer, and now I’m a freelance Strategy Consultant making more money than my parents. I dropped out of college in 2015 and made myself miserable because I thought “everything was unfair and that’s just life is blah blah blah” and the second I started acting and working like a developer, or engineer would I slowly started becoming that. Of course I realizedalong the way I don’t like writing code but that put me on an even better pathway.
It’s literally that Shia Labeouf meme. “Just do it” give yourself permission to become the thing and you will become the thing. If you only say “it’s all unfair, I’m not good enough, I can’t do it because….” Then that’s what you are giving yourself permission to do. You will always get back what you put out there.
yeah you need to work, but you don`t need to kill yourself in work to make it in anything, just be balanced with your life and everything will be okay,
take it easy no rush, it's not about the destination but about the journey, i wish the best for you all :) thank you Dorian!!!
balanced life is a bs. If you want be good at smth balanced life doesn't exist.
Got to be careful with that, Time has no mercy. If you want to archive financial freedom, not necessarily becoming multimillionaire but free from being tied to a 9-5 and not able to roam the earth and set your rules, you need to go into a personal "house arrest" for few years to build so you can escape the matrix. If you take it "easy", time flies and next thing you know 20 years has passed and now you're focusing on getting a 401k so you can afford to not work the last years before you die.
@@marcinkepski4977 your mental health is more important than anything,
Do what ever works for you, but don’t forget to have a good warrior rest when you think you had enough, wish you all the best :)
@@marcinkepski4977 your mental health is more important than anything. Do whatever works for you but don’t forget to have a good warrior rest you think that you had enough wish you all the best :)
this is bs advice. to get to the point where you could land a job you have to work hard otherwise you'd get there in 100years.
Interesting and helpful information. Personally, I learned there are no guarantees in life, but I too feel that luck had played a big role in my journey. So, I think there is no clear map, on what to do to succeed. but if you like what you do, you will do it with a lot less effort and stress and the other aspect of it, is that survival instinct that you mentioned. You grind hard, because you know that it may be the only chance you'll get, and you have to take it seriously. And sooner or later, rewards or failures come in. Either way, you get a feel for it and see if it's worth continuing to do it or stop. Thank you for sharing! Have fun out there and make the most of it!
whats bs is someone on reddit telling me that javascript, react, node are very difficulty, when literally u can break them down into some lines of syntax and patterns. What also BS is having lecturers who werent compeent enough to teach me stuff that would have motivated. But most of the struggle and BS boils down to me not trying enough and focusing on the things that would have developed me and now that I finally tried hardwork, everything that requires discpline, focus, early morning seems easier than sitting around doing nothing
Survivorship bias is more about others also putting in the work just as you did, but other factors kicked in as to why only the few made it. Think about professional sports and how many people aim for it, but never make it
I respect your ability to question/analyze your way of thinking. The fact you even played with the idea of being wrong shows a lot
There are millions of people who work just as hard or harder than you, but don't run into the right people or weren't born in the right country, or a million other situations you can't even think of. Just b/c you can't see your luck doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Every successful person works hard, but they also have a bit of luck, that doesn't erase the fact you worked hard. You are falling right into this trap, millions of people "just show up and survive' and work hard and keep trying day in and day out, but it didn't work out for them b/c they weren't in the right place at the right time, or maybe had a situation that didn't allow them to do what you did, or hell maybe just corporate greed hit and they god laid off, or got hit by a car and a paraplegic now or just so many things. Just b/c you did it doesn't mean anyone can do it. This is just motivational grifter bs that you have fallen for. If everyone that worked hard "succeeded" then everyone would be on top. How exactly does a society function if everyone is on top. It doesn't, you have to have people on the bottom and our society and corporations ensure that will happen. No matter how hard you work if you don't have a bit of luck you most likely won't succeed to the level you have. You need to take a big hard look at your privilege and stop listening to Grant Cardone or whatever motivation grifter you are listening to b/c they are conmen.
I think that luck is often quite fluid though.
Except for some obvious situations (like being born with down syndrome) and that sort of stuff. there's a lot of fluidity with luck.
For example, you might not get that job that you were looking for. Unlucky.
But you also have a lovely girlfriend who you randomly stumbled into and you ended up finding the love of your life. Lucky.
The problem with approaching life this way though, is that you stop focusing on your agency.
You can also roll the dice on a lot of stuff. If you come from a poor country and you tried 20 different ways of making money and found one that stuck, were you lucky? What about the other guy who tried 10 and didn't find a money maker, was he unlucky? Or did he need to do it 10 more times.
The lines get really blurry when you get luck involved outside of health issues and so generally it's better not to focus on luck but instead believe in your own agency. Tbh, people who believe in their own agency also tend to go further. They make luck less of a factor by either working around it or using it to their advantage.
That's how I try to live my life. Work around the bad luck and take advantage of the good luck. Makes the world feel a little more balanced too.
@@Synkotic90 like this mindset, like you create opportunity, obv we are not equal but it's more about working smart, and working smart comes with attending meetups etc to create relation and actually create real opportunity instead of apply to 100 remote jobs a day without even customizing your cv...
awesome reminder to fight and become the survivor/winner - thank you sir 🤝
Excellent video Dorian!
I ended up going into college because it was the safest path to a career in programming and has opportunities beyond that. I would recommend it for most people, but I have to admit it's not strictly necessary to get into a coding job. It just makes things a lot easier if you have the resources to do it first. Not just for job searches but for also having a strong foundation in the math and theory behind computing.
What happens when you don't get hired because you have no experience
@@jermainemyrn19 A big reason to do a degree is to get access to internships to avoid graduating with no experience. New grads without internships have it much harder than ones that did a few.
@nada3131 isn't an internship working for free?
@@jermainemyrn19 Most of them are paid in this field.
@@jermainemyrn19 They get you experience and access to positions not on the public job market. A lot of the projects you make as a student become resume items, and the professors have usually worked in the field in some capacity. I can say personally that I've made scanners, parsers, databases, and even a CPU.
Also, someone with a degree and no experience is infinitely more hireable than someone with neither credentials nor experience.
Its a harder env for entry level than ever before i think, more to learn, more competition. Its obviously still possible to land a job, but you have to be rdy to go through it. If u like coding and do it for fun you have an advantage, because at the end of the day you'll code cuz u like it not cuz it pays. Thats what worked for me, i made things i liked, along the way made friends that led to new job opportunities
Im not interested in coding at all. Its all over for me now
@@cunnylicious why would you wanna work in something that you didn't like initially?
@KineticCode because i cannot find any other jobs that can give you the same wlb while doing the bare minimum
@@cunnylicious would a degree be possible at all for you? What about accounting? I sympathize with not being interested in anything in particular, but in this economy, whether it's trades or an in-demand degree, you should have specialized skills. Try to look into something you can tolerate that pays somewhat well.
@nada3131 i already have an it degree but just having that in and of itself is useless in the shitty job market where i live. Its basically an old one too and i already missed all the opportunities during that time
The message of the video is truthful, but if I saw this video in my "fuckaround" stage of life, I would may be get a bit motivated to do something, but the most action I would take is to save this video and forget about the idea forever. What I learnt since then is that you only REALLY get the lesson, when life teaches it to you. You can watch however many motivational videos but the motivation will wear off. If you want to change something you have to just start doing it and keep doing it daily. You will suck for days, weeks, months, but everyday you will be getting better than those people who are still watching motivational videos instead of actually doing something.
I was living a careless life, but what changed my perception was picking up skateboarding in my early 20s. It's not a prime age to start doing it, most of the people who are good at it start at LEAST 5-ish years earlier. Not only that, but I started completely alone, with no one to give me an advice, and that's how I've been doing it for the first year. It took me way too much time to learn the most basic tricks in the beginning, but I eventually did and it made me realize that if you do something everyday you will become good at it at some point.
But yea, some things ARE impossible and you have to weight in your personal situation. Again, with me and skateboarding - I love it, but I never considered making a career in it, because I don't fit some basic criteria. But sport and something like programming is different. You can't become a pro football player if you never played until your 20s, but you probably can learn something that only needs your mind to function. Another important thing is to like whatever you are doing and being deterministic about it.
The landscape has definitely changed since 2017 and comparing yourself to success stories back then will just make you feel like shit. You can be a coding wizard and have the most killer portfolio projects but most recruiters and HR reps are extremely picky right now and heavily favor degrees and years of professional experience - and that's if they even see your resume and you haven't been filtered out by ATS. Now more than ever it's about who you know, not what you know. I have a BS degree with years of experience as an industrial engineer before I learned to code, and it's extremely difficult just to land a phone screen. I ended up taking a low wage job as a C++ developer for an indie game studio recently just because my sister works there and I can't get shit in web dev.
Things will change in the US when interest rates decline but nobody has any idea when that will happen since the Fed changes its mind about lowering them every other day. It's important to not be a doomer and give up on your dreams, but it's also important to stay realistic about the timeline.
Survivorship biases exist in every path.
I've got a degree in engineering and i've been a software and hardware developer/architect for over 15 years. I can tell you a couple of things.
- what I learned in uni about programming is now mostly irrelevant to how I write programs in this current day, programming needs continual learning.
- one year of full time self study about programming is probably equal or more to the programming courses that is done at Uni.
We live in a very different world now with information and online courses easily accessible and also chatGPT now starting to write code for us. In regards to survivor bias, I believe you will become what you are passionate about regardless of the course it too you to get there.
Like a former swedish slalom world champion said: "the more I practice, the more luck I got.."
I missed out on my first few opportunities because of this. Just remember you aren't worthless :)
There is always the infamous 10.000 hours rule. Spend enough time on something and you become proficient at it.
But it takes discipline.
I resent how academics will coin these "logical fallacies" such as survivorship bias as if they're something we should ingrain into our psyche to not make pursuits that we're scared of based on past failures.
What else are we going to do? Maintain the status quo of our lives and not take the risk that could lead to massive improvements? To heck with that I say. If you try and you fail, at least you tried. Most people don't, and most people won't.
love your videos keep up the good work
You got in early bro in this economy even people with degree are struggling
Funny because back then people were telling me I was getting in "late" now I'm hearing that I got in "early". "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now."
@DorianDevelops I'm not saying that you shunt pursuit I just told you facts that the economy is bad we just went through covid. The market has always been competitive, but there's been a demand. Now is competitive, there automation and overall not enough demand. Your quote says best time to plant was 20 years ago now 2nd best time is now lul. I agree
@DorianDevelops in this case planting the same trees over and over again isnt going to work
Great video. When I look at my life I know anything I have not accomplished is because I simply did not apply myself. Consistent everyday effort. Clock in everyday. Thanks Dorian.
Dorian, If you are reading this, I have a crazy imposter syndrome and I am close to quitting my backend practices. I always dreamed of being a good backend dev. I have a CSC degree, which is 4 years old and never utilized but still I have it. I am an Okayish Junior, and I catch things fast. What can I do to prevent myself from quitting, to restore the faith that it is still possible in 2024?
Luck is the residue of design.
The self-taught ship is sailing. As competition and saturation increases, so does the barrier to entry. Though I understand you're trying to offer motivation, and do agree with the overarching message. Too much victim mentality out there.
Hey man, I’m 23 and I’m trying to get in the tech field and right now I’m not as motivated. School isn’t teaching me how I taught they would but I’m already 100k in debt . Any advice?
I suspect excuse makers aren't desperate enough to keep trying. Not all of us have the luxury of being able to go back to something else.
95% of the world has this form of learned helplessness. Those who don’t either make it or die trying! ❤
legend
This guy is spitting facts! 🔥
Your eyes are getting baggier and darker as you talk about hustling and losing sleep. - Gollum 😂
Yes. By definition you are lucky and you have survivorship bias. Because everything that happened must have happened this exact way otherwise you wouldnt be here. This includes where you were born, what genes you got from your parents, where they were born and so on.
My mom is a Cuban refugee and was smoking crack when she was 3 months pregnant with me. Wish I could tell you about my father but I didn't meet him until I was 33 years old. My parents and where I was born only held me back. It didn't help me much.
@@DorianDevelops And if none of those things happened, you wouldnt be here at this exact moment typing these words.
Not sure I agree...I was just too stubborn to fail.
I mean I think that's the point of the video. You persisted, you didn't allow yourself to fail because you kept trying.
Crazy was just watching one of your videos yesterday lol, you still program with Ruby?
@@HiroProtagonistCIC oh cool! Yes still working on Ruby on Rails and enjoying it.
I don't think its a matter of one or the other. You need to work hard and network and you also need to get lucky. If you hadn't worked hard but got lucky you wouldn't have been in the same position to take advantage of that luck, but on the other hand if you'd worked hard and just not been very lucky with the labor market or meeting recruiters you may also not have made it.
Lesson: You need to try to control anything you can (Usually through hard/smart work) in your power to maximize the probability that when you do get lucky you can take advantage of it.
e.g. Bill gates is a smart hard working guy, from his public persona. But got pretty lucky with his parents, the time he was born, when he entered the computer industry etc. If he hadn't been smart and hard working he wouldn't of been able to take advantage of his luck, if he hadn't of been lucky he'd still probably be successful except maybe not one of the richest people in the world.
If you wanna help me out, show the coding you actually do for work, what kind of assignments do you get to do remotely for instance. Show it and go through it.
Nda/PI agreements prevent that
@@KineticCode IF it is true, it is all silly, since the code by developers is copied from Google, and then MAYBE modified. How I am suppose to gauge how good at programming I am in comparison to this CZcamsr? He just talks never shows what he can do in easy mode on daily basis.
@@44wpwojtek44It’s true you can’t share code you wrote for a company as it’s their intellectual property.
Dorian has shown he’s not going to share code or tutorials, I suspect he’s not a particularly strong software developer otherwise he would be doing more of that content. He’s more in the business of motivational speaking, which has it’s place and there are many CZcamsrs doing it
Who would care if you saw a few problems taken out of context? However, I do agree that Dorian probably is far more well to do from CZcams content, which is almost irrelevant to me, than from his coding.
Be respectful
Eh, I'd say you do have survivorship bias. You were quite lucky to get that first job. Right place, right time.
I'm not saying you weren't knowledgeable, or didn't deserve it. It's just that someone with a degree will get picked 99% of the time over you. Not because they're better, but because (and this is the key) _there's many more bad programmers among the self-taught than among those with a degree._
I'm sure that the top 10% of self-taught have nothing on the 10% of the degree-guys, but the degree acts like a filter for the bottom half. The worst degree guy can still be put into the workplace and be mediocre. The best self-taught? Sits there for 3 weeks trying to get something done before being fired.
Do not validate your hardwork and determination into such negative rational definitions. Science may define anything but not everything, there's no such thing as Absolute Universal rule.. Yea science is a powerful tool for understanding the world, but it may not encompass all aspects of human experience. Personal beliefs and principles play a crucial role in shaping our perception of what is right. Science doesn’t necessarily capture every facet of human experience. Personal beliefs, ethics, and principles are integral to our individual and collective identities, guiding our actions and shaping our understanding of what is meaningful.
While science can inform our decisions and broaden our perspective, it operates within its own scope, which may not always align with personal or subjective experiences. The interplay between scientific understanding and personal belief is a dynamic and nuanced relationship that continues to evolve as we learn more about the world and ourselves. It’s a reminder that knowledge is multifaceted.
It's a truth for everything that only a minority of those who start will finish.
Nothing special about programming.
Even in games, many more people buy a game than people actually finishing it.
If you check steam achievements, you'll see that only a few games are completed by more than 40% of players (meaning the person has beaten the endboss). Many games weren't even beaten by 20% of players.
So, it doesn't even mean that something has to be especially hard. If you want to finish you have to stick to it. And if it is not your thing, you probably won't stick to it. Or there might be other reasons why you don't stick to it.
But one thing is sure:
If you truly stick to something and don't give up when the harder parts of it show up, then you are part of a minority.
A shit Ton of people play the lottery like the mega millions …but does everyone win .
No .
Can you win without entering the lottery No.
Is it likely you will win?
No.
But there’s a bit of luck involved
You not finishing the 9th grade but still being able to get into tech is like winning the lottery . You got EXTREMELY lucky 🍀 on top of your hard work . That’s it
I checked your linkedIn, it’s written a CZcamsr. Not only you but 99% tech influencers don’t have any real experience but talk about how to do something 😂.
My personal LinkedIn bro not my CZcams LinkedIn 🙄 I separated them because I didn't want weirdos like you contacting my employers. So once my following started to grow I stopped sharing my personal account. If you go back through all of my videos you'll see I've shared all my resume, LinkedIn, and GitHub of my portfolio from when I first got hired as a dev in 2017
@@DorianDevelopsgot it u hide it because we can identify your lies, nice.
@@azizbekjuraev1people like you who have time to comment things like this and do research into someone’s life are just sore losers who don’t do anything important with their lives and hate to see others do different things and be successful because it makes them feel bad about themselves inside. I suggest you do some research for your own life instead of wasting your time hating.
Did you self teach with kids?
My first was a newborn and my second was on the way. It was easier with a really young baby since all they do is sleep, eat and poop..
@@DorianDevelops That's still very tough because that's crunch time. It took you a year to get in?
@@jermainemyrn19 Roughly about 10 months of self teaching programming before landing my first job. But before coding I was studying for my comptia certs and spent about 6 months doing that before pivoting to programming.
@DorianDevelops That's wild. You worked 40 hours a week? I'm trying to Guage how you did it. I get home usually by 5, start cooking and cleaning and put the kids in bed. Then I'm dead and put in only like 2 hours before I crash.
@@jermainemyrn19 I used to work between 32 and 48 hours a week but usually averaged 40 hours a week. I worked 10s and 12s hour days so I had longer days but more off days. My job had some down time and I was able to study at work. Even would bring my laptop in and sit in my car towards the end of my shifts sometimes. Days when I wasn't working I was studying from the moment I woke up until I fell asleep. It was hard and I was obsessed with learning. Not sure how I didn't burn out but I think it was because I was really enjoying it. Still do, crazy how I can put so many hours into it and not feel like I'm going crazy lol
You seem to fundamentally misunderstand survivorship bias. It has nothing to do with how much work you put in. It doesn't mean your hard work was irrelevant. It just means that most people, put in the same circumstances, and putting in the same amount of work, would not be as successful.
Nothing is going to happen if you dont apply yourself like he said. 0 times anything is still a 0
@@cunnylicious And?
The only aspect of Survivorship Bias that is justified in taking issue with is in regards to the people who have this absolute mindset of trying to PUSH a certain goal on a person just insisting that they just need to try harder.
It's all a matter of what it is you want. If you TRULY feel you want something and aren't JUST trying to obtain it for a very specific superficial reason (i.e., people who go into a specific career ONLY for the money) and there's no real passion behind it, that's likely not going to pan out well long term.
There's also times you THINK you want something and then realize it's not for you. And that's okay. That just helps move you closer to what IS meant for you.
But a LOT of people DO in fact have the issue where they don't try *at all* (or put in bare minimum effort) because they have already accepted that it's not going to work out...and that's the perfect way to guarantee that outcome.
I feel that's the long and short of what he was trying to express.
@@Pixelynx but how do you survive with no money? Thas why people want to make a lot of money so they dont have to worry about surviving how is that superficial?
I know a lot of people who make excuses for why they're not in a good spot in life. I know people that rant about capitalism and the system being rigged, but the moment you mention anything about learning in-demand skills or investing their money they come up with more excuses
I think what you said is not totally true, since working hard alone no matter how hard isn't and never will be a decisive factor for success.
There are countless factors at play, and everyone has it differently.
The way I see it we are all climbing a mountain to reach the top, those who work hard 'may' reach further, but some could get hit by landslide.
"And whatever you have of favor - it is from Allāh. Then when adversity touches you, to Him you cry for help."
Quran 16:53
What I am trying to say, is that if you think you made it, be humble and grateful, it was not all you.
Wish you the best.
I think this guy never had a job or even could not get a job. He is not real dev
You can check my LinkedIn. All my experience is listed there. Or maybe that's all fake too and I'm a psyop created by the internet to promote self taught programming.
@@DorianDevelopsbro in your linkedIn its written youtuber. Don’t get me wrong but I doubt that you even had real experience before, not only you but most of the tech influencers does not have any experience at all. I just wanted people to get advice from real devs
Despite all the financial struggles i and my family faced, everything is finally falling into place! $47,000 weekly profit and riches I'll always praise the Lord
Thxs Buddy for your motivation, because I need that, 5 months now have considered going into programming but I have this feel that I can't make it because one or two reasons. But sincerely speaking I did want to become a programmer that's dream right now. Can you help me with your email thxs.