dont know about 95+%, but if he puts together the same season he has the last 2 years to end this year and next year, he gets there. he most definitely gets 50% on a ballot, but i dont know about more than that
I did the math, he’s around 2 more full seasons and at his pace he can become the undisputed Cleveland offensive goat. He could lead in basically every counting stat with very remarkable averages
The least IP for a post-integration HOF starter is Koufax at 2,324. Sale doesn't have the peak. I'd like to see Sale get to at least 2,600 before I'd think about putting him in. I guess all pitches post-2010 are at a disadvantage, but they gain that advantage back in numbers like SO/9. The top six guys in SO/9 are currently playing right now. With how injury-prone he was in Boston I can't see him getting enough WAR to have a great shot. Would like to be wrong obviously.
Well it's correct to say that where things stand today if his career was over Chris sale would not and should not get into the Hall of Fame however who's to say that if he doesn't have another two to three seasons like this season that he won't
Lindor FWAR: 50.4 Harper FWAR: 51 Machado FWAR: 51.1 JRam FWAR: 48.3 Arenado FWAR: 48.8 Lindor is the youngest of that group, by three years in some cases. Unless he completely falls off a cliff within the next two or three years I don’t see how he doesn’t get in while the others do. Hell, he has a chance of passing Jeter in war. War isn’t everything and those guys at their best are better while Lindor is just consistent , but I don’t see how he doesn’t get in if he continues to just accumulate. The number would just be too big to keep him out.
@@Toketree how about the stat specifically made for that? JAWS, which averages a player's career bWAR and their seven best bWAR season (bWAR7), puts lindor at 42.2, 28th all-time for shortshops, which will only go up as he accumulates more WAR and better seasons. Each player's career JAWS on this list is: Lindor - 42.2, 28th Harper - 43.6, 30th (for right field, woild be 34th for 1B) Machado - 48.9, 20th J-Ram - 44.4, 26th Arenado - 49.7, 19th
But you're only changing perception of a HOF pitcher because the modern pitcher usage is so drastically different than historical usage that it only makes sense to compare future HOF pitchers against their contemporaries versus historical pitchers, which doesn't affect guys who played in an era where pitcher usage was in line with historical averages.
Honestly I think Bernie Williams as a hall of famer is some of the biggest Yankee fan cope I’ve heard. He is pretty much the definition of half of very good and you absolutely cannot argue for him being in without putting in Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, and Andruw Jones first.
I mean, Jim Edmonds is literally better than about 15 OF's already in the Hall, he should absolutely be in the conversation and it was criminal that he fall off the ballot in 1 year.
i missed where jake said they shouldn't be in the hall of fame and bernie should. but yeah, "yankee fan cope" lol. i've heard him say lofton and jones should be in and i'd imagine he feels the same about edmonds. he just thinks bernie should also be in, which he also stated multiple times was biased, obviously.
Craziest part is Darvish could mayyybe accumulate 3,000 stateside K's... it'd be a lot more likely if COVID didn't happen and he wasn't dealing with injury/family stuff this year
I really think Sale and Cole should be together in the same tier. Cole's case seems to be pretty locked in barring major injury or performance fall-off, but Sale seems to be viewed with an unusual level of scrutiny for someone with his level of performance. Sale is 2 years older, and they are within 10 career innings pitched of each other. Sale has dealt with injuries, but when he's healthy, he's proving that he is still at the top of the game, and another 2-3 full seasons of being good (not even great necessarily) would give him the resume in my opinion. If he continues to perform like he has this season, I think his case will become a lock. He's already the greatest strikeout pitcher of this generation, and while he hasn't won a Cy Young yet, he has a 7-year stretch of finishing T6 in Cy Young voting, and looks like he's about to start another streak. Chris Sale is truly one of the most elite pitchers to touch a mound in the last 15 years, and if he can hit ~2300 innings without a total deterioration in performance, he will be a hall of famer. 35:28 on this point, one name who doesn't get enough love on this stuff is Emmanuel Clase. He has an essentially invincible skillset, and is one of the few recent relievers who has a true hold on the closer role. In other words, he's 26, has 139 saves, and a 230 ERA+. Through his age-26 season, Edwin Diaz had 2 more saves (Clase will eclipse him by end of season) and an ERA+ a full 100 points lower. Clase is that dude.
I was upset that they didn’t mention Clase. He’s gonna likely finish with 50+ saves barring any injuries which will make him a 3x consecutive save leader. He’s got arguably the most unhitable pitch in baseball right now in his cutter, and is just having one of the best starts to a relievers career ever. Problem is he was suspended for a full season due to PED’s so he could be a case of that’s ultimately what keeps him out
Sale’s problem is going to be the guys going in ahead of him. He’s going to go up for the hall right in that dead zone following Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, and Kershaw, 70+ WAR guys. Cole will have a couple more years to buffer that where writers will have a chance to see what pitcher resumes are going to start to look like. I do think he needs another K title or an ERA title pretty bad, finishing second in the cy young to Corey kluber in 2017 hurts him a lot.
If McCutchen gets to 350 HR and 250 SB, he’ll join just Bonds, Mays, Sheffield, Dawson, and Beltran to do so. The SBs will be hard but the hall loves power speed center fielders
He’s 32 SBs away from 250 but he has only 33 stolen bases since his age 31 season. Not sure if it’s realistic he hits both. 40 more HRs is no bargain either
@@roydonk8989 no yeah it’s definitely more of an if question than a when question but if he gets there, I think he’s got a shot at the hall. I would vote for him either way his current production but those are simple bench marks that people can look at and think “yeah, that’s a hall of famer”
i mean 3/5 are not hall of famers so not the best argument lol. arod and soriano are also members of that club as non CF, neither hof. rooting for cutch though
He's also been with Cleveland his entire career and likely will retire with Cleveland. The writers love that type of stuff. I think he has a really good chance of getting in unless he falls off a cliff like Andruw Jones
I'm not against the use of WAR, but there's a lot more that goes into determining a HOF career than just looking at WAR. There are a lot of hall of famers with 40-55 WAR that just did 1 thing well. Lou Brock only had 45 WAR, but he was one of the best base stealers of his generation. Similar story with David Ortiz and hitting home runs. Scott Rolen was able to accumulate a lot of value by being a well rounded player, but was a more controversial case than Ortiz or Brock because he didnt do any one thing exceptionally well.
I mean, Rolen was one of the best defensive third basemen ever. He had 8 gold glove awards. He should have been a slam dunk HoF case had it not been for the absurd standards for third base. Rolen also had a solid back half career, but on Toronto and the Reds so he kind of faded into obscurity after being on some very good Cardinals teams, whereas that didn't really happen for Brock and Ortiz
@@mooninites755 yeah, it's probably not right, but a HOF case can be lost by fading at the end of your career unless your an obvious case like Pujols or Griffey Jr.
yeah similar to other young dudes like witt and julio, thing is you can't predict if any one of those guys are suddenly gonna hit a wall or get destroyed by injuries and just burn out or put up bad WAR seasons for some years and then its over. so hard to try to predict, but man i wouldn't be shocked if gunnar randomly ends up being arod lol
Freeman, Altuve, Goldshmidt, Arenado, Salvador Perez, Harper, and Votto are locks to get in. Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, and Greinke are in. I do not think you can even have the conversations with anyone else because some players just fall off.
@@justavictim9432 Yea he's horrible. He has more game winning post season HR's than Trout and Votto have playoff games played. When you are 85 years old you will remember 3-4 of Altuve's big moments but none of Trouts, Votto's or even Mookie's.
If Salvador Perez gets to 300 HR and he doesn’t get in when only 7 other dudes have done it in the history of the game then what are we doing? In my mind the moment Salvy gets to 300 HR he becomes a Lock… P.S. Edit- Jake says his “Heart can’t analyze Defensive WAR from past years” when he just slighted Salvy for his own WAR total. Just putting it out there the Homer is strong with this one…
I worry about Acuna's chances because it's already so difficult to make it...but he essentially has now lost a big chunk of his prime 2020- shortened covid season 2021- half a season ACL 2022- average stats after returning 2023- MVP 2024- missed most of season with another acl That is a lot of games missing from prime years to build hof case
I might be crazy, but how does Altuve not get mentioned it is the hall of FAME, one of the most influential fifteen players of the last fifteen years. Go Rockies, Doyle is going to be HOF
Quick and dirty two-minute estimate: Depending on how far one looks back, there have been an average of about three player inductees each year. The average length of an inductee's career is about 18 years. So one would expect approximately 54 current players to eventually be inducted. Another two minutes of googling did not turn up how many HOF'ers were active in each season, but that graph would be straightforward for Jimmy to create.
Awesome conversation! Spinning off to retired numbers. Cutch might not make the hall but should have 22 locked down in Pittsburgh. What other guys might not reach Cooperstown but deserve their team's highest honor, and what guys will be like Rolen making the HOF but no retired number?
IMO Vladdy should be in the young hitters categories, he has very similar numbers through their age 25 years (or will once Vladdy's age 25 season is over). He also has shown the durability to get to needed milestones (500 HR/3000 Hits), plus you know the MLB wants a hall of fame father and son combo.
I know I’m biased as a Royals fan, but I get soooo tired of the framing argument against Salvi. He literally won the platinum glove and multiple gold gloves and gets punished for not deceiving bad umpires as much as some other guys??
Buster Posey: 3 time WS champion, ROY, MVP, 2012 Batting title, 2x Comeback player of the Year, Gold Glove, 5x Silver Slugger, 7x All Star, Hank Aaron Award. He'll be in the HOF. No questions asked
Addie Joss is the only person the 10 years played requirement was waved for like you said because he died the other time the requirement has been waved was the 5 years retired to be eligible and that was for Clemente also because he died
When it comes to WAR it is important to realize that as players get better overall the top WAR likely falls. That is because the best of the best are improving, if at all, at a slower rate than the bottom simply because there isn't as much room for improvement. So if the best stay relatively equal but the bottom moves then the top WAR goes down as the replacement level and average for other nomalized stats goes up.
it’s funny to me that the New York Yankees got busted doing a sign stealing computer aided centerfield camera scheme in 2017 that they supposedly ran in 15 16 and parts of 17. They were disciplined by the MLB in a sealed letter. The Red Sox also got busted in 2017 for a similar scheme using an Apple Watch to rely the signal. The Astros got busted using a trash can in 2017 which somehow makes it worse. All three of these teams cheated the exact same way/The exact same year and only the Astros seem to bear the weight of the public opinion. They say “ours wasn’t is bad bc we only did it when a runner was in second”. How does that make it any better? You only cheated when it matter the most. That makes it better? Personally I find it incredible hard to believe that you would take all the time in the world to develop a computer program to decode signs and not use it. That’s like catching your kid with a fake ID and believing him when he said he got it so that he could rent a car to pick you up from the airport. If Altuve doesn’t deserve it then neither does Judge, Betts, or Ortiz. Cheating is cheating.
@@trealville23 is it? Bc it did all happen and it is all cheating that was disciplined by the MLB. Shouldn’t we apply the same standards to everyone? Yankees fans seemed to be the ones that scream the loudest about it also which is funny to me.
Except that it’s proven they weren’t using the same scheme? Altuve’s case is that he wasn’t involved per investigation. The scandal is overblown anyway, but it’s stupid to act like all the teams schemes were equal. “Most people in the industry believe there are degrees of crimes that exist, and the Astros, to this point, have been shown to have had the most egregious system. The Red Sox, the Yankees, the Dodgers were all using the lesser system, the base-runner system.” - Author of that sign stealing book that covered the whole league
@@sirwilliamraleigh2100 I agree. Those are Bobby Abreu numbers. Through his age 32 season, Abreu had 375 doubles, 205 HR, 271 SB, and a slash line of .302/.412/.507 and he's a Hall of Fam... no wait edit, oh and he had 49.5 bWAR and a higher OPS+ than Yelich
Stanton: Writers ballot might be tough but I'm 100% sure a Veterans Committee would put him in. Nola: Feels like the knuckle curve and his style of pitching is sustainable through his 30s and he will reach 3K Ks No mention of Tatis but if hes just a walking 5 WAR through his 20s and can still drop 30 homers in his 30s will anyone care about the PEDs
This is more so a question for Bailey than Jake,but where do you draw the line between Goldschmidt and Freeman where one is a shoe in and one still has to solidify their case? Personally I agree that if you had to pick one it’s Goldschmidt,but I don’t see much separating them stats or accolades wise to the point where there’s really a distinction to be made.
Yeah Freeman beats Goldschmidt in a lot. Stat wise, Goldschmidt slightly beats out in WAR and home runs, and considerably in stolen bases, but other than that he only has 3 more gold gloves and 2 more silver sluggers on Freeman. Freeman beats him everywhere else
@@skalty9868this is true, plus I believe that Freddie has been slightly more consistent throughout his career than Goldschmidt. I know ppl don't care about that but his production throughout his career at his level so consistently is more valuable than some of the extra accolades that Goldy has
on degrom's innings, he actually was/is a workhorse. on the mets he would go 8 innings of 1 run ball, he just got hurt. without injuries (even if you dock his efficiency), his hof case is just as good if not better than verlander, scherzer or even kershaw
Don’t forget the elephant in the room that everyone who played since 2020 has lost at least 102 career games. Not insignificant for your counting stats.
@@maxwellsingsit’s been well documented that wasn’t intentful steroid use in his career. I think if sosa can find a way in with his unwatered roid claims, tatis has a chance
Hard to say betts is in with the current final numbers. Obviously his accolades and numbers so far are crazy but the reason he just didn't play anymore would be the determining factor a la Kirby Puckett who also had better numbers at the time he stopped. Also if goldschmidt is a lock so is freeman and if Rolen is in so is arenado
With all respect to Bailey, I don't understand how Goldschmidt is 100% and Harper isn't. Their numbers are pretty similar but Harper has more MVPs, has been far more prolific, and has played in a lot more meaningful games than Goldschmidt.
I don't think "playing in more meaningful games" should be a metric to consider. You're going to bar a lot of HoF quality players that simply played on bad teams.
This episode has kinda broken my brain a little bit. Baseball is such a paradox right now. Almost no hall of fame pitchers and yet offense is historically low because pitching is too good. That’s baseball Suzyn.
I think the pitch clock unfortunately killed Sandy Alcántara’s chance. Before the pc he was better every year, won a Cy Young, and was one of the few pitcher your expected to go 7+ IP with 2 or fewer runs in every start. He also was only 26 when he won the Cy Young. Doing that even with a little regression for another 4-5 years would have been great. And put him in track. Instead PC brought a ton of regression to his stats and landed him on the long term IL.
This is an interesting subject when you are trying to take war into count. Jeter and Rolen have nearly the same war but one guy was one vote shy of 100% in his first year and the other guy barely made it and a lot of people don’t think he should be in.
I feel like I would swap freeman and Goldschmidt in the 100% and 95% categories. Freeman is just better on every level, he just needs a bit more longevity but even if he retired today, I think he’s in.
I really think the HOF needs to re-evaluate the RP standards. Only letting in relief pitchers who get saves erases so much baseball history from the 1970s to today, especially the last 30 years. I look at guys like Devin Williams or Dellin Betances being top 5 pure pitchers on a "WAR per IP" basis throughout their primes. I know this exercise is done based on who the wroters would vote in, but i still think those guys need to get some love. A similar argument could be made for catchers, whose HOF resumes are so weird to compare across eras. With the shift to defensive prowess over offensive prowess, its tough to see rWAR and even fWAR getting anywhere near 60 in a typical career. Baseball Prospectus WARP feels much better to look at.
I think that Joe Musgrove could have a super sneaky hall of fame career. I think he has a skill set that has some potential to age well, despite injury and new pitch issues in recent years. 1000 innings at age 31. Didn’t really get relativity nods in some of his best years but he has a no hitter and is a super popular pitcher for San Diegans and his strong one team connection could help bridge some gaps from voters
I forgot about Altuve until the end. Definitely in that mortal lock (100%) or finishing touches (95%) category. That’s my bad. Glad BBD called it out.
Classic Astros and Altuve hate. Smh.
He's Cano - cheater
@@hustlecrowe9440 his a hof. You clown
I was about to go off in these comments lol
dont know about 95+%, but if he puts together the same season he has the last 2 years to end this year and next year, he gets there. he most definitely gets 50% on a ballot, but i dont know about more than that
What does Freddie Freeman have left to prove? 60 WAR, 330 HRs, career .300 avg and .900 OPS. I think he’s a lock
I agree. If Goldschmidt is a lock, Freddie should be too.
Plus an MVP and WS
So true, when it’s all said and done Freddie has a better career than both Goldschmidt and votto
Yea
Jeff Bagwell has better numbers and it took them awhile to put him in
I will literally watch anything Foolish ever does
@@Ryan-zl3bnwhat the fuck are you talking about?
@@Ryan-zl3bnweirdo bro
Same. Bailey is the goat
Jose Ramirez will be in Cleveland’s hall of fame no matter what, he is beloved
A JRam statue next to Thome's is a lock.
I did the math, he’s around 2 more full seasons and at his pace he can become the undisputed Cleveland offensive goat. He could lead in basically every counting stat with very remarkable averages
Chris Sale is currently the *all-time* leader in SO/9. That doesn't get talked about enough.
degrom for k/bb i'm pretty sure. both should get in.
If they ever played...
@@RainerWarrior666Chris Sale has pitched nearly 2000 innings lmao, he’s played
The least IP for a post-integration HOF starter is Koufax at 2,324. Sale doesn't have the peak. I'd like to see Sale get to at least 2,600 before I'd think about putting him in. I guess all pitches post-2010 are at a disadvantage, but they gain that advantage back in numbers like SO/9. The top six guys in SO/9 are currently playing right now. With how injury-prone he was in Boston I can't see him getting enough WAR to have a great shot. Would like to be wrong obviously.
Well it's correct to say that where things stand today if his career was over Chris sale would not and should not get into the Hall of Fame however who's to say that if he doesn't have another two to three seasons like this season that he won't
Lindor FWAR: 50.4
Harper FWAR: 51
Machado FWAR: 51.1
JRam FWAR: 48.3
Arenado FWAR: 48.8
Lindor is the youngest of that group, by three years in some cases. Unless he completely falls off a cliff within the next two or three years I don’t see how he doesn’t get in while the others do. Hell, he has a chance of passing Jeter in war. War isn’t everything and those guys at their best are better while Lindor is just consistent , but I don’t see how he doesn’t get in if he continues to just accumulate. The number would just be too big to keep him out.
Also, Altuve: 56.7, four years older than
Now show their BA, RBIs, slug, ops., playoff wins lmao you can’t choose one random a$$ stat and say that means you belong in the hall of fame 😂
@@Toketree how about the stat specifically made for that? JAWS, which averages a player's career bWAR and their seven best bWAR season (bWAR7), puts lindor at 42.2, 28th all-time for shortshops, which will only go up as he accumulates more WAR and better seasons. Each player's career JAWS on this list is:
Lindor - 42.2, 28th
Harper - 43.6, 30th (for right field, woild be 34th for 1B)
Machado - 48.9, 20th
J-Ram - 44.4, 26th
Arenado - 49.7, 19th
@@Toketreeif you think WAR is “one random ass stat” then you have absolutely no clue about the Hall of Fame or baseball stats in general
I think all of those guys will end up getting in, I'd put all of them over 50%.
Ight bro I ain’t no Astros fan but not talking about Altuve is crazy 😂
He's a cheater. They don't go into the Hall of Fame.
Me when I'm stupid @@fignons_missing_8sec4
@@fignons_missing_8sec4 cough ortiz cough
@@obtusemooose Ortiz didn't cheat
the hall of fame doesn’t look kindly on cheaters…. anyone on the 2017 astro team doesnt deserve the hall of fame
Clayton Kershaw, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Scherzer, Jose Altuve, Mike Trout, Justin Verlander, Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke, Joey Votto
Greinke isn't active bruh
@@jameskenny7082 He also isn't retired.
If we change the perception of a HOF pitcher, then Felix has to get in.
Felix has to get in regardless, but he isnt active
@@baileysmith4744Felix is probably not getting in his 2nd half of his career is rough
Not with those 2nd half numbers
But you're only changing perception of a HOF pitcher because the modern pitcher usage is so drastically different than historical usage that it only makes sense to compare future HOF pitchers against their contemporaries versus historical pitchers, which doesn't affect guys who played in an era where pitcher usage was in line with historical averages.
@@harper-leightonscott4566as is Andruw jones’. He’s probably getting in
Honestly I think Bernie Williams as a hall of famer is some of the biggest Yankee fan cope I’ve heard. He is pretty much the definition of half of very good and you absolutely cannot argue for him being in without putting in Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, and Andruw Jones first.
I mean, Jim Edmonds is literally better than about 15 OF's already in the Hall, he should absolutely be in the conversation and it was criminal that he fall off the ballot in 1 year.
@@mooninites755 Lofton too, they were on similar levels in terms of full career contributions
And Will Clark.
i missed where jake said they shouldn't be in the hall of fame and bernie should. but yeah, "yankee fan cope" lol. i've heard him say lofton and jones should be in and i'd imagine he feels the same about edmonds. he just thinks bernie should also be in, which he also stated multiple times was biased, obviously.
Craziest part is Darvish could mayyybe accumulate 3,000 stateside K's... it'd be a lot more likely if COVID didn't happen and he wasn't dealing with injury/family stuff this year
Darvish without injury is a sure hall of famer. Unfortunately he had alot of injuries he pitched through which Inflated his ERA.
Willi Castro is a LOCK🔒😤
tigers legend
I really wish the Tigers actually could have developed him. Such a likable player who has been turned into an all star by a division rival
Idk why but jake saying ‘wow’ at the very end is hilarious 🤣🤣
I really think Sale and Cole should be together in the same tier. Cole's case seems to be pretty locked in barring major injury or performance fall-off, but Sale seems to be viewed with an unusual level of scrutiny for someone with his level of performance. Sale is 2 years older, and they are within 10 career innings pitched of each other. Sale has dealt with injuries, but when he's healthy, he's proving that he is still at the top of the game, and another 2-3 full seasons of being good (not even great necessarily) would give him the resume in my opinion. If he continues to perform like he has this season, I think his case will become a lock. He's already the greatest strikeout pitcher of this generation, and while he hasn't won a Cy Young yet, he has a 7-year stretch of finishing T6 in Cy Young voting, and looks like he's about to start another streak. Chris Sale is truly one of the most elite pitchers to touch a mound in the last 15 years, and if he can hit ~2300 innings without a total deterioration in performance, he will be a hall of famer.
35:28 on this point, one name who doesn't get enough love on this stuff is Emmanuel Clase. He has an essentially invincible skillset, and is one of the few recent relievers who has a true hold on the closer role. In other words, he's 26, has 139 saves, and a 230 ERA+. Through his age-26 season, Edwin Diaz had 2 more saves (Clase will eclipse him by end of season) and an ERA+ a full 100 points lower. Clase is that dude.
I was upset that they didn’t mention Clase. He’s gonna likely finish with 50+ saves barring any injuries which will make him a 3x consecutive save leader. He’s got arguably the most unhitable pitch in baseball right now in his cutter, and is just having one of the best starts to a relievers career ever. Problem is he was suspended for a full season due to PED’s so he could be a case of that’s ultimately what keeps him out
@@jamesschenck3786I doubt the PED thing would be something that holds him out UNLESS he gets dinged again
Diaz was at ‘Kimbrel’ pace until the missed year.
Clase is on ‘Kimbrel’ pace now. 😧
Sale’s problem is going to be the guys going in ahead of him. He’s going to go up for the hall right in that dead zone following Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, and Kershaw, 70+ WAR guys. Cole will have a couple more years to buffer that where writers will have a chance to see what pitcher resumes are going to start to look like. I do think he needs another K title or an ERA title pretty bad, finishing second in the cy young to Corey kluber in 2017 hurts him a lot.
this is a dream blunt rotation tbh
And the one dude nonverbal in the corner 😭
@@jackoverton2254yes exactlyy😭😭
If McCutchen gets to 350 HR and 250 SB, he’ll join just Bonds, Mays, Sheffield, Dawson, and Beltran to do so. The SBs will be hard but the hall loves power speed center fielders
He’s 32 SBs away from 250 but he has only 33 stolen bases since his age 31 season. Not sure if it’s realistic he hits both. 40 more HRs is no bargain either
@@roydonk8989 no yeah it’s definitely more of an if question than a when question but if he gets there, I think he’s got a shot at the hall. I would vote for him either way his current production but those are simple bench marks that people can look at and think “yeah, that’s a hall of famer”
i mean 3/5 are not hall of famers so not the best argument lol. arod and soriano are also members of that club as non CF, neither hof. rooting for cutch though
I feel very strong that José Ramirez will be a HOFer if he can manage a steady decline over the next 8 or so years it think he's got it.
He's also been with Cleveland his entire career and likely will retire with Cleveland. The writers love that type of stuff. I think he has a really good chance of getting in unless he falls off a cliff like Andruw Jones
Hes so underrated if he had the same career in New York or the dodgers as hes having in Cleveland he’d get so much more love
I'm not against the use of WAR, but there's a lot more that goes into determining a HOF career than just looking at WAR. There are a lot of hall of famers with 40-55 WAR that just did 1 thing well. Lou Brock only had 45 WAR, but he was one of the best base stealers of his generation. Similar story with David Ortiz and hitting home runs.
Scott Rolen was able to accumulate a lot of value by being a well rounded player, but was a more controversial case than Ortiz or Brock because he didnt do any one thing exceptionally well.
WAR is a stat for people that don't understand baseball
@@ekerson🤡
I mean, Rolen was one of the best defensive third basemen ever. He had 8 gold glove awards. He should have been a slam dunk HoF case had it not been for the absurd standards for third base. Rolen also had a solid back half career, but on Toronto and the Reds so he kind of faded into obscurity after being on some very good Cardinals teams, whereas that didn't really happen for Brock and Ortiz
@@mooninites755 yeah, it's probably not right, but a HOF case can be lost by fading at the end of your career unless your an obvious case like Pujols or Griffey Jr.
@@ekersonwhat a silly thing to say
deGrom’s HOF odds are my Roman Empire.
I know gunnars half way through his 2nd season but this dude is just STACKING WAR.
Yea 13.5 bwar through a season and a half is ridiculous
He is 0.4 War away from Kyle Schwarber
@@chrismechalke4503this is the funniest shit I've ever seen holy fuck
yeah similar to other young dudes like witt and julio, thing is you can't predict if any one of those guys are suddenly gonna hit a wall or get destroyed by injuries and just burn out or put up bad WAR seasons for some years and then its over. so hard to try to predict, but man i wouldn't be shocked if gunnar randomly ends up being arod lol
Obviously if he averages 10 war a year he’s gonna make it, but he’s just not going to do it
The MLB HOF is so interesting when comparing players. There’s the era they played in, defensive value, peak value, career value, WAR, the eye test.
Just have foolish on every episode at this point. I love hearing him cook in a podcast format. Jake’s alright too
I’m a reds fan and whenever Aroldis Chapman came into the game, we knew we had won. He was an absolute slam the door closer from 12-15
Freeman, Altuve, Goldshmidt, Arenado, Salvador Perez, Harper, and Votto are locks to get in. Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, and Greinke are in. I do not think you can even have the conversations with anyone else because some players just fall off.
How on earth could Foolish say Goldschmidt is a lock but not Freddie Freeman.
I don't know I don't see Goldy as a lock. He has to play for 3 more years to be a lock.
@@blairmcbride5437 Goldy has played longer
@@clarktownsend8991no he doesn't especially how he is playing... He's in.
He’s biased to the Gold Gloves clearly
Thurmond Munson should be a Hall of Famer
Why didn’t Bailey mention OOTP A’s legend Chris Baker?
Clase has 140 saves and just turned 26. Averages 40 ish a year. Just sayin
Altuve has a 52 war….
And he has 8 Minute Maid Park trash can adjusted WAR
@@justavictim9432 cornball
@justavictim9432 He didn’t use the trash cans worms for brains and posted a .381/.449/.633 slash line on the road.
@@justavictim9432 Yea he's horrible. He has more game winning post season HR's than Trout and Votto have playoff games played. When you are 85 years old you will remember 3-4 of Altuve's big moments but none of Trouts, Votto's or even Mookie's.
I actually love wake n Jake. just take a gummy and enjoy
If Joey Votto is a Hall of Famer then Lance Berkman should’ve had more votes. Go compare the numbers. Berkman also had a stellar playoff resume
Berkman is probably a veteran's committee guy
It's a shame to me that Altuve will be denied first-ballot because of the sign-stealing thing but Mookie will waltz right in.
Zack Wheeler deserves to be in these discussions ngl
There’s multiple baseball Pioneers that are in the Hall of Fame that only have 500 hits and about 10 home runs
Best two baseball CZcamsrs combined. Love when you guys work together.
definitely putting manny in that arenado category. especially since he PROBABLY should have an mvp (2022)
Manny deserves to be in the Arenado category but not sure if HOF voters would feel the same
Speaking Jacob
Freddie could retire today and be in. He’s easily a 100% category here
If Gerritt Cole doesn't get into the Hall, future generations will use him as a point of comparison for their own pitchers.
If Salvador Perez gets to 300 HR and he doesn’t get in when only 7 other dudes have done it in the history of the game then what are we doing? In my mind the moment Salvy gets to 300 HR he becomes a Lock…
P.S. Edit- Jake says his “Heart can’t analyze Defensive WAR from past years” when he just slighted Salvy for his own WAR total. Just putting it out there the Homer is strong with this one…
ALTUVE IS A LOCK. NO MATTER HOW MUCH PEOPLE HATE HIM. HE’S A HALL OF FAMER.
Who is Altive?
If bonds isn't in for cheating then he shouldn't be either
@@jakefollensbeeAltuve will get in regardless he didn’t use the sign stealing
@@jakefollensbeeyou’re right they should both be in
@@nou7611that cheater will never get in cope he’s this generation’s bonds
Bailey is CZcams hof lock 🔒
I worry about Acuna's chances because it's already so difficult to make it...but he essentially has now lost a big chunk of his prime
2020- shortened covid season
2021- half a season ACL
2022- average stats after returning
2023- MVP
2024- missed most of season with another acl
That is a lot of games missing from prime years to build hof case
I might be crazy, but how does Altuve not get mentioned it is the hall of FAME, one of the most influential fifteen players of the last fifteen years. Go Rockies, Doyle is going to be HOF
Quick and dirty two-minute estimate:
Depending on how far one looks back, there have been an average of about three player inductees each year.
The average length of an inductee's career is about 18 years.
So one would expect approximately 54 current players to eventually be inducted.
Another two minutes of googling did not turn up how many HOF'ers were active in each season, but that graph would be straightforward for Jimmy to create.
Awesome conversation! Spinning off to retired numbers. Cutch might not make the hall but should have 22 locked down in Pittsburgh. What other guys might not reach Cooperstown but deserve their team's highest honor, and what guys will be like Rolen making the HOF but no retired number?
You guys forgot Andres Munoz as HoF lock
I love HOF discussions for some reason, and I could not disagree with ANYTHING you guys said. Great job here.
Man what an episode. Thank you both!
IMO Vladdy should be in the young hitters categories, he has very similar numbers through their age 25 years (or will once Vladdy's age 25 season is over). He also has shown the durability to get to needed milestones (500 HR/3000 Hits), plus you know the MLB wants a hall of fame father and son combo.
Seager is near his career norms really, the dead ball/juiced ball nonsense really affects some of these hitters imo
Also wheres altuve at?
I know I’m biased as a Royals fan, but I get soooo tired of the framing argument against Salvi. He literally won the platinum glove and multiple gold gloves and gets punished for not deceiving bad umpires as much as some other guys??
Buster Posey: 3 time WS champion, ROY, MVP, 2012 Batting title, 2x Comeback player of the Year, Gold Glove, 5x Silver Slugger, 7x All Star, Hank Aaron Award. He'll be in the HOF. No questions asked
Addie Joss is the only person the 10 years played requirement was waved for like you said because he died the other time the requirement has been waved was the 5 years retired to be eligible and that was for Clemente also because he died
When it comes to WAR it is important to realize that as players get better overall the top WAR likely falls. That is because the best of the best are improving, if at all, at a slower rate than the bottom simply because there isn't as much room for improvement. So if the best stay relatively equal but the bottom moves then the top WAR goes down as the replacement level and average for other nomalized stats goes up.
Jake + Bailey is my favorite combo in the world
Salvador Perez gotta be up there no?
I think he would be if it weren't injuries
Salvi. Perez.
Eh
Literally had an hour long conversation in the shower about this to myself, so hyped
Lol I get you, I have this type of conversation to myself every day, wondering who is a Hofer and who's not
it’s funny to me that the New York Yankees got busted doing a sign stealing computer aided centerfield camera scheme in 2017 that they supposedly ran in 15 16 and parts of 17. They were disciplined by the MLB in a sealed letter. The Red Sox also got busted in 2017 for a similar scheme using an Apple Watch to rely the signal. The Astros got busted using a trash can in 2017 which somehow makes it worse. All three of these teams cheated the exact same way/The exact same year and only the Astros seem to bear the weight of the public opinion. They say “ours wasn’t is bad bc we only did it when a runner was in second”. How does that make it any better? You only cheated when it matter the most. That makes it better? Personally I find it incredible hard to believe that you would take all the time in the world to develop a computer program to decode signs and not use it. That’s like catching your kid with a fake ID and believing him when he said he got it so that he could rent a car to pick you up from the airport. If Altuve doesn’t deserve it then neither does Judge, Betts, or Ortiz. Cheating is cheating.
Cope
@@trealville23 is it? Bc it happened and yankee fans are the ones that scream the loudest so….
@@trealville23 is it? Bc it did all happen and it is all cheating that was disciplined by the MLB. Shouldn’t we apply the same standards to everyone? Yankees fans seemed to be the ones that scream the loudest about it also which is funny to me.
Except that it’s proven they weren’t using the same scheme? Altuve’s case is that he wasn’t involved per investigation. The scandal is overblown anyway, but it’s stupid to act like all the teams schemes were equal.
“Most people in the industry believe there are degrees of crimes that exist, and the Astros, to this point, have been shown to have had the most egregious system. The Red Sox, the Yankees, the Dodgers were all using the lesser system, the base-runner system.” - Author of that sign stealing book that covered the whole league
Because the Astros won 👍no one gives a fuck if you cheat and lose
Did we forget that Yelich has a MVP, 300 doubles, 200 HRs, 200 stolen bases, over 40 WAR and he’s 32 having a great season.
they mention yelich at 25:07
Literally the first name they said in the episode
Not hof stats
@@sirwilliamraleigh2100 I agree. Those are Bobby Abreu numbers. Through his age 32 season, Abreu had 375 doubles, 205 HR, 271 SB, and a slash line of .302/.412/.507 and he's a Hall of Fam... no wait
edit, oh and he had 49.5 bWAR and a higher OPS+ than Yelich
@@razdowerAbreu should be in the hall of fame so he’s a snub not undeserving
Stanton: Writers ballot might be tough but I'm 100% sure a Veterans Committee would put him in.
Nola: Feels like the knuckle curve and his style of pitching is sustainable through his 30s and he will reach 3K Ks
No mention of Tatis but if hes just a walking 5 WAR through his 20s and can still drop 30 homers in his 30s will anyone care about the PEDs
Clase should for sure be mentioned as the young possibilities category
I’m gonna be the old head yelling for degrom just because of the first half of 2021
Corey Seager Is the reincarnated Troy Tulowitzki.
This is more so a question for Bailey than Jake,but where do you draw the line between Goldschmidt and Freeman where one is a shoe in and one still has to solidify their case? Personally I agree that if you had to pick one it’s Goldschmidt,but I don’t see much separating them stats or accolades wise to the point where there’s really a distinction to be made.
Yeah Freeman beats Goldschmidt in a lot. Stat wise, Goldschmidt slightly beats out in WAR and home runs, and considerably in stolen bases, but other than that he only has 3 more gold gloves and 2 more silver sluggers on Freeman. Freeman beats him everywhere else
@@skalty9868this is true, plus I believe that Freddie has been slightly more consistent throughout his career than Goldschmidt. I know ppl don't care about that but his production throughout his career at his level so consistently is more valuable than some of the extra accolades that Goldy has
Yordan is the best pure hitter in the last decade
Judge blows him out of the water.
Sorry Jake but Altuve is a 100% HOF!!
Altuve best second baseman of the millennium
best cheating second baseman. That won't fly when he needs votes for HOF
Not giving a vote to Salvy solely based on framing is ludicrous.
Nice words for Keith Law’s favorite 4th or 5th starter, Aaron Nola
You guys should do a bracket challenge of the best mustaches of mlb
Between Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada, I think it goes to Bernie just based on the fact that he’s got a Latin Grammy nomination.
on degrom's innings, he actually was/is a workhorse. on the mets he would go 8 innings of 1 run ball, he just got hurt. without injuries (even if you dock his efficiency), his hof case is just as good if not better than verlander, scherzer or even kershaw
No way its better than those 3 😂
Yes, Yu Darvish is a hall of famer.
Don’t forget the elephant in the room that everyone who played since 2020 has lost at least 102 career games. Not insignificant for your counting stats.
No mention of Tatis was honestly a bit of a surprise
@@brianontiveros-kersch2412 steroids ruin his case
@@brianontiveros-kersch2412 Hall of Fame has been very clear: no steroid users unless their name is Ortiz.
@@maxwellsingsit’s been well documented that wasn’t intentful steroid use in his career. I think if sosa can find a way in with his unwatered roid claims, tatis has a chance
@@lamelosballs5763 he won't tho lol
What about Emmanuel Clase as a potential 400 save guy?
If Votto is a lock (which he is) then Freddie is too. 902 career OPS, .301 BA, 2200+ hits and 335 HR’s. 60 WAR. He’s in
How is that a lock? His numbers aren't as good as Helton who just finally got in
Molina has an extra 200 runs saved with his framing but salvy has 200 more runs with his offense so it evens out 😂
Hard to say betts is in with the current final numbers. Obviously his accolades and numbers so far are crazy but the reason he just didn't play anymore would be the determining factor a la Kirby Puckett who also had better numbers at the time he stopped. Also if goldschmidt is a lock so is freeman and if Rolen is in so is arenado
With all respect to Bailey, I don't understand how Goldschmidt is 100% and Harper isn't. Their numbers are pretty similar but Harper has more MVPs, has been far more prolific, and has played in a lot more meaningful games than Goldschmidt.
I don't think "playing in more meaningful games" should be a metric to consider. You're going to bar a lot of HoF quality players that simply played on bad teams.
Agree. I kinda understand his point when you get to the counting stats but still i would absolutely vote harper if he retired tomorrow
@mooninites755 yeah, i agree in general. But i think it can be an added plus if you had them, but it should never be a negative if you don't
How are those giys locks right now? If their careers ended today. Which one has better numbers than helton who just now barely got in
This episode has kinda broken my brain a little bit. Baseball is such a paradox right now. Almost no hall of fame pitchers and yet offense is historically low because pitching is too good. That’s baseball Suzyn.
I think the pitch clock unfortunately killed Sandy Alcántara’s chance. Before the pc he was better every year, won a Cy Young, and was one of the few pitcher your expected to go 7+ IP with 2 or fewer runs in every start. He also was only 26 when he won the Cy Young. Doing that even with a little regression for another 4-5 years would have been great. And put him in track. Instead PC brought a ton of regression to his stats and landed him on the long term IL.
Stanton looked like a HoF lock until he went to the Yankees
This is an interesting subject when you are trying to take war into count. Jeter and Rolen have nearly the same war but one guy was one vote shy of 100% in his first year and the other guy barely made it and a lot of people don’t think he should be in.
Rafael Devers Future HOF
Judge would be number 1.i think chris sale is only pitcher beside kershaw
Wooo! Afternoon Jakey
Clase I think should be in the category with Hader tbh
Jake I adore you but the fit hat combo is CRAZY
I feel like I would swap freeman and Goldschmidt in the 100% and 95% categories. Freeman is just better on every level, he just needs a bit more longevity but even if he retired today, I think he’s in.
If Raphy hits against Gerrit Cole every AB he’s a 100% lock for the hall
Jake a big market snob? noooooo....
One of my favorite questions to think about!
no altuve mention?
Yeah for the short kings at least
He'll forever be known as a cheater...cry about it
@@KyleJoseph-vo6vpto bad his for sure hof haha. Take the L. You clown.
Pinned comment, he just spaced
@@KyleJoseph-vo6vpcheck Baileys pinned comment, idiot.
I really think the HOF needs to re-evaluate the RP standards. Only letting in relief pitchers who get saves erases so much baseball history from the 1970s to today, especially the last 30 years.
I look at guys like Devin Williams or Dellin Betances being top 5 pure pitchers on a "WAR per IP" basis throughout their primes. I know this exercise is done based on who the wroters would vote in, but i still think those guys need to get some love.
A similar argument could be made for catchers, whose HOF resumes are so weird to compare across eras. With the shift to defensive prowess over offensive prowess, its tough to see rWAR and even fWAR getting anywhere near 60 in a typical career. Baseball Prospectus WARP feels much better to look at.
I think that Joe Musgrove could have a super sneaky hall of fame career. I think he has a skill set that has some potential to age well, despite injury and new pitch issues in recent years. 1000 innings at age 31. Didn’t really get relativity nods in some of his best years but he has a no hitter and is a super popular pitcher for San Diegans and his strong one team connection could help bridge some gaps from voters
he also has a big contract and will continue to rack innings
Not a chance. Dude is 31 with 12 WAR and a career 3.81 ERA and one all star appearance. Awful take.
Corey Seager been to two World Series and got away with two World Series MVP's. People love clutchness
Exactly why you can’t just look at WAR. Seager has to be a HOF, he was so important during those WS wins and he’s a gamerrrrrrrrr
This is not true. In the 2017 WS, he hit .222 and had an OPS of .661
@@ashishkhatri2771 Just when i thought I forgot about astro's cheating year... You right tho he also went to WS 2017